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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Comment cleaner

I really don't have anything I want to post at the moment as I'm using everything for the premuim newsletter so I'll just use this as a comment cleaner.

I'm going to include a picture of where I will be Saturday.

This one's for you Mary ;)

361 comments:

  1. 1st commment!

    Enjoy Maui, Gary, and crew!

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  2. Gary;

    Since you believe we have to finish this daily cycle and then another daily cycle before we hit the intermediate low in PM's does that mean you won the burrito bet with Doc?

    I take it that you don't plan on adding any new PM positions until an intermediate low?

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  3. The bet was that the dollar didn't put in an intermediate low but it clearly did, so no I lost my damn burrito :)

    I will not be adding leverage this deep into an intermediate cycle.

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  4. got it. well have lots of fun in Hawaii.

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  5. Hmm, maybe it is Maui, but looks like Kauaii

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  6. Ah, the road to Hana. Bring your barf bag if you are not driving. I was OK because I drove the whole way. The rest of the car got sick. There are lots of twists and turns. Trust me on this. But, hey, it was beautiful!

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  7. In fact, we all bought cheesy "I Survived the Road to Hana" t-shirts. On the other hand, the first time I made that trip we hired a tour guide. He drove reaaaaallllll slowwwwww. No one got sick. I understood during the second trip why it seemed that he stopped every few hundred yards and asked us to look at every faucet of a waterfall.

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  8. Gary,

    What day are we on for the daily cycle in gold?

    If I understood you correctly in tonight's report then if we rally until day 11 we could expect a pullback around day 20. Then we would possibly test or make a marginal new high. Then we would be set-up for the intermediate decline which would presumably set us up for the next leg up in the finaly C wave and 3 year dollar low. Do I have this correct?

    Thanks

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  9. Steven,
    Pretty close. Remember though cycles are only useful for spotting bottoms not tops. We could get a top at any time.

    That's why we have our stops in place to keep us from riding an intermediate correction with a full position.

    The normal timing band for a daily cycle bottom tends to fall around day 20 give or take a few days in either direction.

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  10. Thanks Gary. What day are we currently on in the daily gold cycle?

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  11. So, if we were to bump up our % (I'm mostly out) at this point, just use gold 1330 for now and 1352 next week if that holds?


    Anyone else going to add in the AM??

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  12. You can use $1348 for the rest of this week.

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  13. Thanks for sharing the picture Burrito Boy! ; ) I lived in Hawaii for nearly 8 years so that looks oh so familiar.

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  14. Chicken Burrito,
    Yes, I plan on adding in a.m. Figure if the head kahuna is out of town, we might as well have some fun with old turkey.

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  15. Rolled from the last thread. Gary got me again :-)
    =================================
    ROBERT,

    >Hence Wall St. quote "it's a zero sum game pal. Somebody wins and somebody loses."

    You've quoted this twice (combined with "money isn't made or lost...simply transferred")

    I'm a big fan of the movie, but you do realize this is incorrect, right?

    Yes...there *are* specific, limited environments such as the futures markets where the wealth payout is zero sum (actually negative due to commissions.) However those examples are manufactured and false.

    The truth is that wealth (which is commonly equated with 'money'. The definitions are different, but we can run with it here) is NOT simply "transferred". This is a VERY common belief and politicians use it prolifically to try to convince people that if (greedy person) X made money, then it was because they TOOK it from YOU!

    "Wealth" (value) can be (and IS) routinely both created and destroyed.

    On BALANCE, the wealth of the world throughout history has increased at roughly single digit percents yearly - puncutuated by slices of time like maybe the industrial revolution, or use of fire and such to accellerate.

    Wars, plagues, famine do the opposite, they cause wealth to be destroyed, consumed, or never created. So do oppressive laws and governments.

    Wealth is CREATED (raising the sum total of it in the world) by the application of time, effort, resources, intellect, etc...by one or more people. The end result (if properly done) of this application of resources is something of HIGHER **VALUE* (wealth) than what was started with as individual components.

    A person over time can cut down a tree (which itself was a form of 'value creation' by another living entity), saw it up, and work it into a chair....or house.

    The end result of their time, intellect, work, and materials resulted in the new existance of a single house (a wealth or value).

    That house didn't exist previously. The total wealth of the world (and that person) has now increased.

    Burn the house down, it disappears.

    And, yes, you can of course TRANSFER the house. But the statement that wealth is neither created nor destroyed...JUST transferred is incorrect. The transferring is but a secondary action completely separated from the creation of wealth.

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  16. Gary,

    Is there any chance that the low of 1330 on November 16 was an intermediate low? If gold takes off from here, and starts going up agressively for several more weeks, would you just say that the November 16 low was an intermediate low or would you say that the current intermediate cycle was just getting stretched?

    thanks

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  17. Of course it is great if you can get wealth by 'transferring' it from others (who worked hard to make it).

    The fiat system is the most perfect such system for this transfer in the history of man.

    It works slow, but consistently.
    It works pervasively throughout and entire society. It is almost impossible to prevent it from hitting you. And almost no victims know or understand what is happening to them.

    A marvelous invention in an unfortunate way.

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  18. David,
    The current cycle isn't stretched. It's just now entering the timing band for an intermediate top and no Nov. 16th was not an intermediate low. That lies ahead for both the stock market and gold.

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  19. Nice call, Wes. I am probably going to give back a chunk of what I made on a very good day yesterday, as I didn't buy enough FXE yesterday to offset my shorts. I thought we might bounce a little today, but that the pside was very limited. Oh well. My vacation money profit is back to lunch money (glad I didn't book tickets yet.)

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  20. DG,

    Looks like a gift this morning for shorts. I'm all cash and will redeploy shorts on TNA, ERX, and I'll be buying AGQ.

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  21. There's never any easy money just laying around when it comes to shorting ;)

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  22. Today is Christmas come early for me. Of course I don't plan to be in the shorts very long (With QE and the dollar 3-yr cycle it makes it harder and harder to stay overnight with shorts because you know there are those upward pressures).

    This is a suckers rally guaranteed.

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  23. I shouldn't use the word guaranteed ;)

    Having said that, odds are highly in my favor, HIGHLY.

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  24. Robert,
    There's absolutely no guarantee this is a suckers rally.

    Don't let the lure of the short side cause you to make emotional decisions that have no edge.

    Would you go all in with a pair of two's in your hand and an ace showing on the table?

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  25. Gary I know you're shorting too ;). Good luck. j/k of course.

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  26. I feel like I have pocket QQs right now. What, did we just come off an intermediate cycle low in the S&P? No way. We've seen the SoS. The timing calls for a decline. The moving averages and BBs call for a decline. I don't expect it to be more than 3% in the S&P, but I only see the upside after today's open at maybe 1.5% max. I'm not going all in Gary, I've learned far better than that.

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  27. If we break through 1200, which I am confident that we will do today or tomorrow, we are on our way to 1250 at a minimum.

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  28. I'm conservative I'd be happy getting out at S&P500 1165, while others would try and wait until 1120-1130, etc.

    I don't really distrust the combination of sentiment and SoS. I have no shorts right now. Shorted a few days ago and got out yesterday morning. I don't envision much more strength after yesterday's afternoon and today's morning. It is money just sitting over there in the corner...

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  29. Entering sometime this morning most likely won't be the perfect entry but not the worst either. I will cover if S&P goes above 1209.

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  30. The trade would be to short around 1200 or a little above with the expectation that the market will move back down into the trading range. If it doesn't then get out quick.

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  31. My risk is about 5% (I see a 30%, max, chance I lose this), my reward 10-13% (I see a 60% chance of making this). 10% is a void I leave for potential news/events.

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  32. Futures at close to 1197. I will fade in, expecting 1200 to be breached today. The majority will be bought (shorted) over or at 1200. Depending on the entry I may move the stop to 1213.6.

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  33. I'm not worried at all Gary. I could do this on the beach in Hawaii and leave and go surfing for the day without even thinking about it. If I were long though, and in heavy right now, and out to surf I'd be more concerned.

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  34. Gosh, Gary there's never easy money laying around doing anything or everyone would be rich! Anyone who thinks this game is easy will soon be disappointed.

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  35. Don't forget the dollar is due to dip into a cycle low at any time. If it's started today then this trade will go against you for several days. Maybe even a week or more.

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  36. Whoever said it was easy? There are just easier times to enter than others. I find this to be one of them. It is still by no means easy.

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  37. The market went up or flat with the dollar going up, who's to say it can't go down when the dollar is going down? As you've pointed out, the dollar going up didn't have to do with its fundamentals, just cycles and then the Korean event (most likely being the cause).

    I am fully aware of this. I do have stops that pertain to the dollar too. You are getting close to talking me out of this, but I'm fading in so not too worried.

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  38. Seems like a good plan, Robert. As long as you know your risk parameters you've got to take the high-odds setups. My thought, though, is that the things you are looking at (SoS, intermediate bottom still ahead, sentiment) are not short-term timing tools. That said, your estimate of the likely success of the trade may be too high. What makes you think we will go down now as opposed to after the beginning month seasonality is over and from,say, 1215 or so? Why here and now? Those indicators are not short term ones.

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  39. DG,
    Ahh I disagree. There is always easy money laying around in a secular bull market.

    Trying to short agaisnt the long term, intermediate term and short term trend is exceedingly tough to do. If one didn't time the entry and exit perfectly they will lose money.

    My guess is that 95% of the people that try to do what you do will consistently lose money.

    But my original point was the other day you said there was easy money to be had on the short side. I contend there's never easy money on the short side...even in a confirmed bear market.

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  40. If it is easy and everyone wants to have more money, why isn't everyone rich? Because of human nature. Oh yes, if only that didn't exist then it would be easy...but it does. Trading is also easier if you master your emotions. And if I said there was easy money to be made I was either kidding, exaggerating, or drunk (and I don't drink!)

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  41. SPY SoS already at -130 this morning.

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  42. Gary,

    If we get a big SOS reading today can we make shorts in SnP 1200 for the intermediate decline.

    what could be the stop for such a trade?

    V

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  43. -$150 SPY SoS in first hour.

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  44. v: Gary doesn't short bull markets, as he has said many times.

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  45. V,
    Remember the SoS numbers can come early. We could easily see the market rally to 1250 before rolling over. Would you be able to hold on thru that or would you panic and cover?

    If you panic and cover then you will most likely turn a winning trade into a loss because emotions caused you to make a mistake.

    So yes the SOS numbers and the cycle length say one could probably take a short trade. The question is would you have the discipline to let the trade work even if you had to weather some severe pain in the process.

    I can tell you the vast majority will not be able to use the SoS data to produce profits.

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  46. Wow, really? Asking Gary about shorting stocks after everything he has to say about it, even in this very post's comments? LOL Sorry, it's just too rich.

    There really is something destructively (for most) tempting about shorting, isn't there? You'd think most would have learned after the last couple of years.

    The breadth this morning is quite impressive. I wouldn't want to go short in the face of that. At least not until there's some weakness apparent. Otherwise it looks a lot like a surge out of a cycle bottom of a sort, blowing shorts out of the water. Have at it; not for me.

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  47. I have taken profits on my long QLD trade and have reestablished my Dec QQQQ 53 put position that I sold yesterday.

    Lately, these gaps have had a way of fading after early excitement. I just don't think positive sentiment and complacency have changed, yet.

    I am looking for more downside.

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  48. Gary what shall we wager SP doesn't hit 1235 for 1.2 months?

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  49. I not just short. I do have a decent AGQ position and they might work to offset eachother a little bit.

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  50. Shorting when the Fed is pumping is dangerous, unless you use tight stops. If you play short enough-term you can win/ Marty Zweig, one of the best ever and a frantic in-and-out trader said his number one rule is "Don;t fight the Fed" and right now the Fed is on steroids. That said, I play both sides all the time, but if you do you better know what you are doing because, as Gary said, you'll get chewed up otherwise. If you have to ask where to put the stops you better not take the trade.

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  51. From my experience, gold will hit above $1400 in the next few hours.

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  52. Yeah, Robert, I did that some (shorting stocks while long PM's) before the top in PM's hit.

    Opening equity-only put call ratio shows tons of call buying by the public. A good for the bears that they are buying calls into this gap up. Wes, I hope you're right because I am going to let my shorts from a few days ago go against me more than I usually do. I almost never risk more than 1% of my tradable assets, though, and am not close to that yet.

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  53. Gotta run. Good day all. And Go Dollhair!

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  54. I know he only has potentially one kick left in em', but that could be a swift kick!

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  55. Chinese Purchasing Manager (PMI) reports come in strong, leading to that overnight S&P futures surge.

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  56. 20 Dec $120 S&P Puts @$1.84, out before close, stop @$1.68.

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  57. Aloha Gary. Don't know if Hana is in your itinerary, but if it is, there is a good family owned eating place along Hana Highway (eating places are limited in Hana) where the food good and cheap. They serve Lunch Plates including Hawaiian Tacos. Sorry Gary, they don't serve chicken burritos :(

    Have a great time in Maui!

    Thanks for your efforts and enjoy your well deserved vacation.

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  58. I will most definitly be making the trip to Hana on one of the days I'm there.

    I know the road sucks but the scenery is worth the drive.

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  59. Poly: I don't do options, so educate me if you have a minute. If you are getting out before the close and have a defined stop, why not just short SPY? Is it the extra capital required or is there some other advantage to puts? With a stop you have limited your risk either way.

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  60. looks like dollar going to drop next 3 days..

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  61. Does a drop below our stop point signal then end of this intermediate cycle?

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  62. No. A drop below the stop would indicate the correction is in progress. Trust me you will know it when gold is getting to the bottom of an intermediate correction. The deflationsits will be thick as thieves telling us how the gold bubble has popped.

    That will be the signal to pile back in.

    (I may consider reinstating Anonymous posting and put the troll meter back up)

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  63. BAILING OUT THE IRISH - SIMPLE


    It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit. On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel. The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub. The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit. The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note. The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town. No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the bailout package works.

    I don't fully agree with this but it's a good story anyway. Have fun on Maui and watch out for those Hana mushrooms!

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  64. DXY at lows of the day. We'll see how the market will react. Right now they are liking it.

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  65. DG, firstly I'm very far from an authority on anything trading related :)

    For me it's just about capital and not requiring such a large amount to be allocated for the same result.
    Most of my worth is in separate accounts, so the little I have made available for "speculation" I'm using leverage to "make it interesting".

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  66. Very flat market until that dollar swoosh. Still have my stop at 1213.6 with entries at 1202.

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  67. Allow me to share my tale of woe: UUP should have showed up on my short screen yesterday! Every once in a while (rarely and I don't know why) stockcharts.com has some sort of a data feed problem where something simply doesn't show up on my screens. Well, if I had know yesterday that UUP would be down a fair bit today I'd have covered my shorts! (Might have even bought some PM's for a trade) Damn! Oh well. Most of the time it doesn't matter if they miss an ETF here and there due to a feed problem, but that one I will check by hand from now on since the dollar is calling the shots. Sigh. It's very annoying to give back a week's worth of profits. Gary, when you say surprises come on the upside, this surprise I never saw coming! expect.

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  68. News of a super European fund via IMF is driving the markets higher. Sounds like a positive for bullion too.

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  69. Most shorts won't be able to take this pain. If they shorted at SP 1175-1180 they're not feeling too good nor patient I can assure you.

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  70. And you're what, Robert, a masochist? LOL Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)

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  71. DG, Poly,

    I got the sense yesterday that a bunch of folks were expecting the S&P to go through 1173, take out the stops and then rally hard.

    I think what has happened is a sort of mirror image of that. The S&P has rallied hard and run the buy orders and stops above 1200.

    Now my indicators still show too much bullishness. No doubt today will only add to that total.

    I'm still of the opinion that this gets resolved to the downside. But, we probably have to first let the seasonal expectations work off over the next two days.

    Meanwhile, I think I have traded my way into a free put position. :)

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  72. Wes, I agree with your analysis, but it gets harder for me once I get out of whack. I am backing out and will take a fresh look after this dust settles. By the way, the OEX traders bought a truly massive amount of calls yesterday (those guys are good!), but not until the bell so it was only actionable in the after-market. Another reason to have covered yesterday. Oh well...sometimes you eat the bear...

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  73. Yeah, DG. I noticed that OEX data and added to my long QLD position in the aftermarket because of it. I posted at the time, remarking that they bought 5 calls for each put, so you should have seen it.

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  74. I may consider reinstating Anonymous posting and put the troll meter back up.

    Gary, I think that would be a good idea. All the blue on this page is easy to trace now...and the black will be mostly anon...And when it gets out of hand, simply shut it off. I think we are currently missing the GOLD BUG meter too...

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  75. I will post when we get that surge in activity that often accompanies tops. We usually see an exhaustion day soon at tht point also.

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  76. Gary wrote:
    Trust me you will know it when gold is getting to the bottom of an intermediate correction. The deflationsits will be thick as thieves telling us how the gold bubble has popped.
    [...]

    (I may consider reinstating Anonymous posting and put the troll meter back up)

    =========
    LOL! Nice one, Gary. You know that old saying? "Good contrary indicators are hard to find."

    Back to the matter at hand: I'm being a tad more cautious than you right now. My portfolio is at 50% and I swapped the AGQ for PSLV. That was hard...AGQ has been beautiful.

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  77. Yeah, Wes, I did notice now that you mention it, but that by itself just had me trim a little. If I had also seen the $ was going to go down today I'd have covered a lot more. Man, you cannot fuzz out playing the game I play. Oh well, losing .5% of my account and a week's worth of profits is no disaster. "I shall return!" as the man said. Frustrating, though.

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  78. Gary,

    I was in Maui yesterday. Had the most amazing fish sandwich in a little roadside deli just beyond Paia on the Hana Hwy at about mile marker 15. Check it out! Just don't be in a hurry - 30 min to make a sandwich!

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  79. gary,
    can we handle AGQ @147 again?

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  80. Somebody promised gold at 1400 in a few hours... Does not look like it is going to happen today. Meanwhile other commodities are going nuts. Cotton up 8%, wheat up 7%. DBA +2%

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  81. Feels like one of those days where the indices peak and stay put through to the close.

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  82. For DXY using Demark, we are on day 7 of a Daily Sell Setup. Just need tomorrow or Friday to be above today's or yesterday's highs to perfect - looks like 81.36 to me. If not perfected, this means exhaustion of trend has not run to completion, and will most likely revisit 81.36. Otherwise, look for a Monday-Thursday of next week DXY to the downside!

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  83. gold has become hard to trade ...take for example today stock market up other commodities up and gold flat. Dollar goes down , gold flat, dollar goes up gold flat...then one day it decides to go up $20, all correlations have broken down, the only remaining strategy is to chase price target which doesnt really bring me too much excitement.

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  84. Gold is rallying, consolidating and rallying.

    Normal bull market action IMO.

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  85. Razvan, that's why I no longer trade. Just sit on my positions and occasionally trim around the edges. Up 60% YTD, 95% invested. It is as much fun as watching slugs fuck but it is good for my financial health.

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  86. Grown men crying today with all their pain from shorting. Top is most likely in.

    This short was easy if all I'm going to experience is a .0039% draw-down.

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  87. What's the best contraceptive for older women?

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  88. Robert,
    You are starting to sound like one of the perma bears over at Tim's site trying to call a top as the market rallies.

    I seriously doubt this is the top. Not with the dollar due to drop down into a cycle low anytime.

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  89. Robert is only 23, he'll learn.

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  90. TZ,
    The longer you wait trying to time gold technically the later it will get in the daily cycle and the more likely you will be buying at or close to a top.

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  91. lol Leo,
    thanks for the laugh @ the slugs

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  92. Gary I'm a bull. Just playing a draw-down. I'm not thinking I'm going to win, and not thinking I'm going to lose, I'm just taking it for what it is.

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  93. Don't expect draw-downs to be historically lengthy due to QE2. Possibly historically short and volatile though, most likely.

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  94. About to go downtown to the beautiful St. Paul, previous sanctuary to gangsters such as Al Capone as well as home of the 08' RNC.

    I would be crazy to go there if the Wild weren't playing tonight. Playing the Coyotes coming from the desert. If we lose in the State of Hockey, hell will brake loose.

    It's safe to say though that dt St. Paul as winter has begun beats Maui ;). I have already slipped on this frickin' ice a few times this year while intoxicated, as well as my parked car was hit. Eskimo season has returned.

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  95. dg,
    could you post what pop up on your screen, so i can get some idea where we going? Is FXE still a buy?

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  96. GARY,

    I removed the post for an edit (sorry), but buying silver or gold here would only be a trade for a blowoff action before we turn down into INT low.

    I'm aware the high may already be in. And even if we go higher it isn't likely to last long.

    All this would be based on my own work like the stuff DG and Robert are doing. I'm aware it isn't 'to plan'.

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  97. I uderstand that.

    What I'm saying is the longer you let the trade develop the greater the chance you will be buying at the top of the cycle.

    Instead of trying to time trades with technical chart patterns time them with cycles.

    One never wants to take a long trade once an asset gets into the timing band for a top. Case in point the dollar is now in the timing band for a cycle top.

    The technicals may be saying the dollar is going higher but the cycles say to beware.

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  98. God help us if this is true, but the drudge just posted a headline saying that the US was going to bail out the EU.

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  99. Robert, that was pretty obnoxious. The same could be said for old men. Let's see how well you hold up for the next 30 years.

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  100. Elaine, your wish has been answered! More of our taxes for Europe!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/40454469

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  101. oa9200: FXE is no longer a buy. Doesn't mean it'll go down just that it is off the "extreme oversold---has to bounce" list.
    I can't share my screens because I am in the middle of starting a hedge fund based on them and my partners require it to be proprietary.

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  102. more and more bailouts please. We need to keep the bull humming strong :)

    right now i am just mesmerized at the 24hr silver chart. It is just a thing of beauty ready to explode higher like a racehorse out of the starting block.

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  103. Right now it doesn't look like we'll fall back into the trading zone by the close. If not, then the next two days are also favorable seasonally.

    The indicators will be interesting, tonight. If small traders are buying puts and don't believe the rally, then that will put a new face on things.

    But, if they embrace the rally with call buying, nothing much changes IMHO.

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  104. Typically big up/down 90% days end up reversing a little in the morning trade.

    I hear ECB has a press conference tomorrow morning, could be related to the U.S and IMF super fund rumors/talk. Potentially add more fuel to the rally.

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  105. Elaine...speaking as a former man slut, older women, especially those who would still need contraception are infinitely superior to the girls in their early 20's. Plus 50 is the new 20..ha ha...except they know what they want. Far more experienced that's for sure....lets hear it for the older women...you rock!

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  106. If we break today's high during this cycle then we have a left translated cycle meaning the intermediate low won;t likely occur until the next daily cycle unfolds. If that plays out it will offer some nice opptys to trim and reload.

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  107. Gary - both USD & Gold are deep into intermediate cycle. How will this resolve if USD dives from here?

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  108. The dollar is due for a move down into it's daily cycle low. I expect this to push everything higher for 4-7 days as that process unfolds.

    Then we should see the dollar rally again and that should drive stocks and gold down into their respective intermediate cycle lows.

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  109. Agree, very easy to follow this plan for selling on the high end but I hate to ask this ... do we still maintain our current stops or can we now perhaps say that if we get a swing high we should sell?

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  110. Tomorrow's sentiment indicators may be more instructive than today's put/call ratios. Both smart and dumb money bought calls today, although the smart money slacked off from yesterday while the dumb money doubled down.

    Gary's thought that new stock market highs may be in the offing is certainly interesting and cannot be dismissed out of hand, but I'm thinking more of sideways action, perhaps even in the dollar.

    We both seem to have an eye on an intermediate cycle low in the reasonably near future.

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  111. Gary plans on leaving money on the table but I say we take it all : )

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  112. Gary-

    Last year around this time, you were touting an epic C wave in the Spring. The metals rallied into November and then had a milder December while the overall market drifted higher until Jan. We then got our intermediate bottom in stocks sweeping the pms down hard with it. I'm a little concerned about this happening again. What do you see different this year? Are you sure the 3 year low has not been put in.

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  113. That is the difference this year. Of course that's not to say that the three year cycle low couldn't stretch and come in the fall instead of in March/April.

    It's never easy is it?

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  114. Thanks.

    I had a mediocre year. Did the pathetic math today, the woulda shoulda coulda if I just stayed old turkey with my positions in the Spring. I had a major position in SLW, GDXJ, SVM and others. I would have had an epic year, but now am looking at peanuts vs. what you all did. I really hope 2011 I will trust myself more. Would love to hear from other subs who blew 2010.

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  115. Gary,

    Would you consider providing more detail for strategies pertaining to selling into new highs in the report tomorrow night? For example, what to look for at or near a top? I like to hold for large volume days that spike, but am wondering if you have any signs that such a day is coming. Do you recommend just selling with a stop limit right above the old high and not getting cute? It seems like that would likely negate a substantial move as retail investors flood in.
    Thanks!

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  116. I will be on the lookout for an exhaustion move above $1425 or a large emotional gap up opening above $1425.

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  117. Does anyone have recommendations for the place to get the best price on selling physical gold & slver bars? Thanks in advance.

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  118. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  119. If we don't get that exhaustion move and gold just rolls over now, there is a beautiful H&S pattern on the 60 minute chart. Feb contract would project to 1250 or thereabouts.

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  120. You're probably wasting your time with chart patterns on the daily charts but intraday is certainly nothing but noise.

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  121. Gary,

    New subscriber here and really appreciate your work. It's interesting how many people who use cycle analysis often call for "turning points" with their cycle work, pointing to past highs or lows near turn dates. Your cycle work seems to be more in line with expecting bottoms and looking at failed cycles to look for trend changes. What is it that draws you to your particular cycle analysis?

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  122. Moving nicely higher again today and being jobs Friday tomorrow, is the setup for the top too perfect?

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  123. I do not like this one little bit. All the charts are straight up. Last year music stopped on Dec 2....

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  124. Otis,
    Cycles are worthless for spotting tops most of the time. I think to many cycles analysts try to use them for that and it's just not going to happen.

    I use cycles in conjunction with sentiment and money flows to tell me when to step on the gas and when to easy off. We are now entering a period when we need to start easing off on PM and the stock market.

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  125. Poly,
    The dollar still hasn't moved down into a cycle low yet. Until it does I wouldn't look for any top.

    The market is just getting a head start on the dollar drop is all.

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  126. The "turning point" business is a joke. These people trot out multiples of these things and then ignore the ones that don't "work" and crow about the ones that end up coinciding with a top/bottom (whatever their bias is). It's absurd, really.

    Of course I know that there are some who swear by it and will defend it to the death (and tell me that I just haven't studied it enough to appreciate the value, blah, blah, blah), but I'm not interested.

    Probably no better than a coin toss, and maybe worse.

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  127. Gary, would a daily swing high merit any action at this point in the cycle?

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  128. anybody have a target price on GLD that would correspond 1425 on $GOLD?

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  129. I would be more interested in a swing low on the dollar than a swing high on gold.

    For gold I will be looking for the signs I listed in last nights report.

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  130. Ahhh. That makes sense. Thank you

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  131. This site has a java applet that you can detach to create a separate window outside your browser ... easy to follow both gold and silver.

    http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html

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  132. To those heading to Hawaii,

    I wish you the best vacation ever.

    Next year maybe I can join you.

    Tom

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  133. Gary, With all the short sellers being MIA today, do you ever ponder the psychology of folks that do that despite your jumping up and down with good reasons not to take that chance?

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  134. I do my best to "enlighten" people about the short side. Most just have to get burned over and over before they learn their lesson. (Some never learn)

    Usually nothing I say will shorten the learning process.

    I suspect most people also ignored my 03 bull market story too. Proceeded to try and trade the gold bull and masssively underperformed a simple buy and hold strategy.

    I try my best to help peole avoid the mistakes I've made but most of the time human nature just can't learn until the penalty has been enforced upon us.

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  135. Triangle breakout; Long gold futures for a trade only. Small stop which is only slightly below breakeven.

    Let's see if we can break 1400 and the previous high.

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  136. Where's Robert? He should be knocked out already if he followed through on his own stops of 1210 for S&P. if he didn't put a stop loss in, it would be a good example for your story.

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  137. If it makes you feel any better Gary, you got through to me some time back and I've prospered well for it. It wasn't entirely you, but you surely helped open my eyes to the gold secular bull and the perils of shorting. Much obliged.

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  138. gary,
    what is the chance $usd go back to $74?

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  139. And to the whole cycles methodology (along with Tim Wood) too. Can't forget that, as it is key to my new-found success as well. That along with sentiment is truly the goods.

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  140. I sure it will eventually but not during this particular daily cycle.

    That should bottom in 4-7 days.

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  141. GARY,

    As per your previous comments I thank you for continuing to urge me to incorporate cycles. I've said before there is an adjustment process when merging that with my style. Cycles-wise I'm mostly down to 'core' and will be jumping in like everybody else this time at that low.

    I'm aware a long gold trade entered here today is against 'plan', but the metals don't feel like they have topped yet and if we run above those highs there is a bit more money to be made.

    I'm ok with the trade. I'm only risking 0.3% of net worth on it and it is already profitable.

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  142. You guys are really cute. I've been trading for 35 years and have always been happy to short "bull markets." This past week I got "killed" by shorting, immediately getting in the black, and then essentially covering at break even when it didn't work. Wow. I lost .5%! I have no doubt that you all would fail at using stops, establishing good entry points, and using proper sizing and risk management, but this constant pounding the drum that it's "impossible" just establishes that you are ignorant (uneducated and unknowing) about how to do it. It's certainly impossible for you, and you are wise not to try something that takes skill that you don't have. Do you actually think that Gary's way is the only way to invest/trade? Read Market Wizards for crying out loud and learn something before you newbies pontificate.

    Sorry for the rant but, geez, give it a rest. From what I have seen Robert, Wes, and a few others know more about trading than you probably ever will. I can't wait to see all the whining that happens once gold starts down into its intermediate low.

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  143. I don't believe gold has made a top either. That's why I'm sticking with a 75% position.

    I outlined what I'm going to be looking for before I go back down to a minimum core position in last nights report.

    We certainly haven't met any of those conditions yet or hit our stop so for now I have to let my positions work.

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  144. Even though I'm risking 0.3% on a stop with this trade, the trade size is actually 2.7x my entire net worth. That's normal for me.

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  145. DG,
    The fact is that only a very few people will ever make, and more importantly, keep money with counter trend strategies especially the toughest counter trend strategy of all... shorting bull markets.

    Now maybe you are that 5% that can do it successfully but unless one is convinced they are in that very elite catagory why do something that has such low odds of ever making consistent money?

    I'm not talking about a successful trade here or there. I'm talking making money over a long (10 year + period).

    The vast majority will do just exactly what you did recently. They will make money on one trade and then give it back on the next becaue the bull did something unexpected.

    Only the vast majority will make money on one trade and then lose on the next two.

    So by the time 10 years goes by they will look back and say to themselves what the hell was I thinking?

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  146. I'm trading gold over silver because the volatility of silver prevents me from getting anything of any sort of size and still maintain that 0.3% risk.

    I can go higher leverage with gold and actually still make as much or more than by using silver due to gold trading much more sanely.

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  147. Gary--last point: You have said you respect Jason and sentimentrader. He goes both short and long in bull and bear markets. Is he also a fool? I agree the best money is made holding during a secular bull, but using some part of your capital to do other things makes you a fool? I am NEVER going to put my whole net worth in to one thing or strategy.

    And a question: If all timing mistakes are corrected why sell down from 110% to 75%? You must think you can do better by timing the intermediate low. Why 75% then and not 50%? 25?% Your own behavior amounts to timing (at least to some extent) during a bull market. You say, "this way if it keeps going I still have 75%." Yes, but you will underperform buy and hold. Shame on you!

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  148. Give it a rest DG. We know how wonderful you are. Geez

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  149. Added. Now 3.7 leverage; approximately same risk. Maybe 0.1% higher.

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  150. There is a difference between "it is impossible" and "only 5% can do it" (it may be less than that). I keep meticulous records and have done well trading for the past ten years, after getting out entirely in 2000. I really do agree that on your blog you need to keep people from fantasizing they are the next great trader, and you are surely right that if they get out they will be afraid to get back in, but this "it's impossible" stuff gets old for me. Sorry for popping off.

    I am out of PM's and very content. I will be back in size again at the next bottom, and no I won't chicken out down there.

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  151. Sorry Onlooker, but I wasn't sure you had seen my framed press release!

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  152. DG,
    I never said it was impossible.

    I'm not sure where you got that idea. All I said was that unless you are a very elite trader you aren't going to make any money shorting bull markets over the long haul.

    BTW I've watched Jason miss quite a few counter trend trades. One has to wonder if he really does make money with this strategy.

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  153. gary,
    100 EMA($80) here may give $USD some support temporary .

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  154. I think I've given up on using any technical strategies with currencies. The forces unleashed in the currency markets by global central banks are so massive that no logical technical levels have any meaning anymore.

    I'll just stick with the cycles and continue to look for a move down into a 3 year low sometime next spring or summer.

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  155. Yes, Gary, this last year or so has been harder form him I believe (and me). This Fed pumping is making some indicators that have been reliable for years less successful. It is why I sought out someone who could ride a gold bull, and feel fortunate to have found you! Now I do both trading and riding gold. Thanks. I have also learned quite a lot from your site and am still working on melding our two approaches.

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  156. SHORTING is **FACTUALLY** loaded against anybody who tries it. That isn't an opinion, it is a FACT that any rational mind should abide.

    A good number of those FACTS are actually DESIGNED into the system by wall street because they want securities and paper to always go UP (or flat) and not down. Just like they want fiat to go up and not down (that's how they SELL this stuff guys).

    What are those facts?

    1) Any asset going down will do so at least twice as fast as it goes up. Your window to be right and make money is FACTUALLY less all other things equal.

    1a) Going up is usually a slow process with plenty of time to get in and get profitable. Going down is often a violent event triggered by someone who has INSIDE INFO who knows it is coming (bad financials, downgrade, competitor news, etc.) You are at another disadvantage cause the people who know this usually will not be YOU. However knowing something is in a bull and climbing slowly over time is easy. FACT against you shorting again.

    2) ALL assets are measured in fiat currencies. Those currencies relentless drop in value at ALL times in ALL countries, through ALL of human history except for the smallest of meaningless examples (including now.) So anything you short in a fiat currency has a continuing and PERMANENT losing bias as it floats upwards. FACT.

    3) If you go long a stock, it's yours. If you SHORT a stock, it is borrowed and the people running the system can and DO rip it away from you to squeeze you and cause you losses. This is an ENGINEERED part of the system. It doesn't have to be designed this way, BUT IT IS - on purpose. FACT. (Doesn't apply to futures or ETF's)

    4) To even make a short in a stock you have to be able to borrow it. Frequently that is not possible at the exact times the people at the top know something will drop (cause they are about to HIT it with downgrades or news). So once again you are screwed by the design of the system. You don't control the borrowing mechanism. THEY do. You lose again. FACT.

    5) All other disadvantages aside, the MATH of shorting allow MUCH MUCH less of a gain compared to going long. Few securities will ever go zero. A good short (over a small time frame) might be 50% or so. The stuff many here are trying to do on this board is only drops of a few single percent. The amount that securities can and do easily move in the *opposite* direction is LAUGHABLY LARGE by comparison (and much easier to obtain). Playing shorts against the monsterously large moves that happen the other way is simply ignoring 2+2=4 and arguing it's 5. The MATH of the situation is against you. Good luck arguing against math.

    6) Finally, there is the simply philosophical observation/argument. Shorting is trying to make a GAIN of the DESTRUCTION of value. Going long is making a PART of a LARGER INCREASE in value/wealth. Do you see the difference? A short is like trying to heat up water in a freezer. You are trying to make money on the LOSS of money. Obviously this is harder.

    The whole process of shorting is simply a suckers game.

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  157. Two more DESIGNED FACTS against shorting:

    1) Only can short on downticks, not upticks (doesn't apply to some securities; rule has been on and off throughout history.) DESIGNED into the system. FACT.

    2) The guys running the system don't ever cancel the ability to be long. But they HAVE cancelled the ability to be short. (Usually at the exact time they are taking the position opposite you and about to enjoy your lunch.) A DESIGNED FACT in the system against the shorts.

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  158. Gary has made the point before, but technical shorting is nearly impossible. People who make money short are the ones that fully investigate a company and find bull in their numbers. Technical shorts get blown out constantly.

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  159. MORE:

    Any info on wall street that gives an advantage is usually delayed or adjusted so the guys running the system can use it first. COT is an example. So is short interest.

    Short Interest numbers are PURPOSELY released only once every two weeks on a delay. BY DESIGN. Cause they give useful information on who to hit and who is getting in ahead of you.

    HOWEVER, the big firms already *know* this info in real time cause they can monitor their accounts and the firm's records. Since they are the FIRM, *THEY* already know how much stuff is short and by whom in REAL TIME.

    If you think this doesn't give them an advantage I can only smile.

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  160. DG,

    I agree with you completely. I believe that when Gary talks about technical analysis and how it doesn´t work, he is really talking about common knowledge or textbook technical analysis (things like indicators, obvious patterns like H&S and other famous concepts). These do not work, simply because they are common knowledge. But technical analysis is any kind of analysis that is based on a chart, even cycles is a form of technical analysis. Gary has talked about how technical analysis doesn´t work because you will usually see gold break an important support level before starting a leg up. Well, that is the proof that common knowledge technical analysis doesn´t work (when price breaks support it is heading down), but waiting for price to break support and then buying it is also iteself a form of technical analysis.

    I also believe there is some misunderstanding about the terms trader and investor. Gary is definitely a trader, even though he might not admit it :), he is not a buy and hold investor, if he were, he wouldn´t be making as much money as he is.

    I also think that trading is far superior to investing in terms of achieving higher results, the problem is that it is much harder, therefore, it isn´t for everyone. But if you are one of the talented few, you will make much more money than a investor could ever dream of.

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  161. My idea about trading in general is that when I start using your money to do it, then it will be your business.

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  162. EVEN MORE:

    If you short a security, it means selling it and receiving the proceeds. However wall street doesn't give the interest earned on these proceeds to retail investors. They keep it. (Granted, that isn't much now, but current rates are an abberation. Normally the values are not insignificant).

    Of course, if the security you shorted has a yield, you are still responsible for paying that yield out as the divs occur :-)

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  163. "There is only one side to the market, and it's not the bull side or the bear side... It's the right side."

    ~Jesse Livermore

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  164. OUT the long gold position. Small loss as expected.

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  165. In the sense that I try to avoid D-waves altogether and trim in front on intermediate corrections then yes I'm a trader to some extent.

    But in the strict sense that trading is where one is trying to time moves and controling risk with stops and position size one will never even vaguely approach the kind of returns that an investor will make by holding a secular bull market.

    The reason is of course a traders position size will limit his gains.

    An investor can make massively larger gains because he isn't trying to control drawdowns. He accepts the risk that the bull may be false or end and puts much larger portions of capital to work trusting the bull to "fix" timing errors instead of stops.

    A trader can't do that, his stops will end up destroying his account if his position size is too large because when you add another variable into the equation (timing) besides just direction it becomes much harder to win.

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  166. David K, Not to pick on DG because I like his comments, but it seems he posted his return YTD recently. I can assure you he didn't exceed the buy and hold given the number I saw.

    Check with Fleckenstein or Einhorn, et al. They do fundamental shorts, and make money. Technical shorting is a tough game for small returns. too many people watch the same thing and just wait to squeeze you out. I understand the stop losses etc., it just seems lots of work for little return as opposed to lots of return for little work.

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  167. Everyone decided to take profits at right under 1400 for two days in a row.
    Go figure :)

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  168. Gary, please explain to me: I have shown many times in my posts, getting an exact entry point. When I have conviction in a trade I can do quite a lot, stops or no. I bought (a small amount---no strong conviction) of FXE at 129.50 with a stop at 129.00 What would have prevented me from doing a lot, adding on the way up, placing a break even stop, and winding up with a large position in it? I'd break even, lose a tiny bit, or have a huge gain if it keeps going (I don't happen to think it will which is why I did small size). I did this at the bottom in 2003 and, even with very tight stops, made 30% on my net worth that year and 2004. I bought SIL at 14.75 and sold near 24, and was never in the hole, so how would the tight stop have hurt me? Almost no risk and a large gain by buying right.

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  169. >"There is only one side to the market, and it's not the bull side or the bear side... It's the right side."

    Cliche/meaningless statement because there is no definition or clear way to determing the 'right' side. It sounds cute in a zen sort of way. But it's meaningless.

    Thus, you must then start evaluating the market from scratch to see the playing field, the rules, and the pros/cons.

    Upon doing that, it is clear that shorting is a loaded game using rational analysis.

    What are the lists of people in the world who are rich based on shorting?

    How many, instead, got rich from being long assets?

    The ratio is beyond huge.
    (I can only think of maybe LESS THAN TEN who are wealthy by shorting.)

    Upon recognizing that ratio and the odds against you (inflation being one of the most insidious), a rational person then decides they are going to make it by SHORTING? Really?
    Even though they can just as easily choose approach the game by going long?

    That's a broken logical unit in action.

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  170. PS: A common retort of the feeble mind in arguments is "But it is POSSIBLE" or "It can be DONE".

    Yes...almost anything can be done.

    But the *rational* person looks at what it will TAKE to get something done. How LONG and DIFFICULT it will be for the reward. And as compared to ALTERNATE WAYS to get the same thing "done". (And if if it is worth doing in the first place.)

    Shorting is not about shorting and "it's possible" or "it can be done". It is about making money. Thus, a rational observation of MAKING MONEY should including the best, shortest, and easiest ways to accomplish that goal.

    Suddenly deciding that that goal can ONLY be accomplished by shorting and then focusing one's life in a fierce attempt to battle it out for every nickel against better odds elsewhere is daft.

    DG: I'm arguing shorting, Not you or your skills. I'm aware there is a sub-thread between you and others on the topic i think. I'm not trying to jump into that. My comments aren't aimed at you.

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  171. Gary,

    The thing is, if you are an excellent trader, you will catch a lot of swings on the way up, whereas an investor can only catch the primary swing. Since no asset goes straight up, buying and holding is never the best strategy. Also, an excellent trader has pretty tight stops, therefore he can afford to leverage and still maintain a 2% maximum loss per trade.

    If you look at the returns of the best traders around, they are far superior to the returns of the best investors.

    No investor could ever have the kind of returns that people like Larry Hite, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Jim Simmons, Marty Schwartz and other had.

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  172. I'm not doing this, but if TZ is indication, I think it is the time to short ;)

    According to history countering TZ's comments have proven to be successful a significant amount of the time.

    TZ is going to want to shoot me, but this is just an observation. Thanks though for sharing TZ :)

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  173. David K,

    Your logic is impeccable. Now, how does this pertain to 98% of the people who just want to make money?

    By definition only 2% of the traders can be the 2% whose returns are superior to the best of investors. And even the best of investors are a rare breed.

    I think the beauty of Gary's approach is that it produces good results for just about anyone who is willing to simply follow his moves without sweating all day long over the keyboard.

    BTW, what's YOUR YTD return? (Not that I care but it helps the credibility of your argument :) )

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  174. David,
    You couldn't be more wrong. The best investors are billionaires like Buffett, Soros, Rogers (not sure if he's a billionaire yet).

    The people you named are hedge fund managers that make a big cut off other peoples money.

    No trader no matter how good he is is going to average much better than 20% over the long term. An investor riding a secular bull will crush those kind of numbers.

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  175. ROBERT,

    I'm out the gold long with small loss. And recognized previously that the long trade had issues (that's why my risk parameter was so small).

    I actually hope we go down from here and that I *WAS* a contrary indicator. That's my preferred direction to buy more.

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  176. DG,
    I'm trying to get out the door to go climbing so I'll make it quick.

    In theory want you say sounds great. However theory and reality are tow different things. If you add on the way up you effective raise your entry price. Once your size becomes too latrge you can no longer honor your stop.to do so would cause you to take a much larger loss than you can afford.


    So when you add to a position there quickly comes a point where you have to trial stops. Thos always get hit and knock you out before the trade can really develop into a huge winner.

    Case in point when you entered in July your positions size was large enough that you couldn't jsut sit still with the position and let your stop work. You exited for a small gain. If however you had just let the stop work you would have held that position through this entire intermediate rally. possibly exiting on the SoS data the other day. Your gain would have been huge.

    It's the difference between theory and reality. In real time it never is as easy as it sounds in theory. If only the workd did work that way (sigh).

    Off to the cliffs for me.

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  177. ROBERT,

    Although despite what you say, I'm believe you will actually NOT short gold or silver despite making it LOOK like going against my trade was the smart/cute thing to do.

    If you are going to short it DEFINITIVELY then please say so so I can book the loss against your ego if you are wrong.

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  178. Dear Gary,

    You were very good in the summer to get the turning point in the S&P when everybody was bearish.
    Now, it seems that you think that the market could head down in the near future. If I read well, you are expecting something to change in the next 4-7 days. Do you think that it will be a major correction, or just going back to 1150?

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  179. TZ,

    Your points are well taken, don't get me wrong. You are exactly right, shorting is a quick unleash, and going long is long and slow. Timing shorting is virtually impossible, and I'm sure you're right too about insiders having that advantage. Mathematically you are also correct and as Gary has pointed out, shorting a stock from $2 down to $1 will give you a 50% increase, and shoring from $20 to $10 will be doing the same thing. Shorting is, for lack of a better word, very dangerous. It is a losing trade as you've pointed out for the vast vast majority of the crowd. If you're not a masochist there is no intelligent reason not to follow Gary's plan. If you are bored doing that, than, become an alcoholic ;) (it would probably pay off).

    That said, I do deviate from Gary's plan, rarely drink, and will be shorting in the short-term ;)

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  180. Question:

    Can someone offer an explanation as to why PSLV has far outperformed AGQ today, even when silver was at its frothiest an hour ago?

    I'm not complaining, as PSLV is my only holding now...just weird that the ultra would be lagging like that.

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  181. Gary,

    Paul Tudor Jones returns are way better than Buffett (who has a lot of money not only because he is an investor but also because he owns an enormous and successful insurance business). Soros is a trader, specially when he managed less money. Rogers is an investor, but he is far from being in the top most wealthy traders/investors. Jim Simmons returns (medallion fund) are a thing of beauty (80% a year since the mid 80´s). Bruce Kovner is also a trader, and probably has more than 10 billion under his name.

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  182. Gary, that is patently false. There are traders in Market Wizards and New market Wizards who have made much better than 20% a year for DECADES! (I started looking them up but hoped you know who mean. You have read it, no?) I, unfortunately, happen not to be one of them, however, but then this is just a part-time hobby that I love.

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  183. I have a feeling most stocks today are being heavily shorted behind the scenes. This is of course only a feeling (there is some data to back this up, but as DG said, that is proprietary ;) ).

    Is there any other feelings/data out there to back this up or to the contrary?

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  184. I've made more than 20% this year trading but I dont consider myself exceptional in any way. I understand Gary's point. I would have made more sitting on my hands with gold at the beginning of the year but like most, I didn't have 100K lying around at the beginning of the year to go "old turkey".

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  185. Let's see how this shorting game works, purchased, TZA @ 18.20

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  186. Hey guys you don't have to convince Gary you're right to take your trades. Just go do it and we'll see who buys who the chicken burrito.

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  187. ROBERT,

    I deviate from gary's plan ALSO because my approach has paid my bills for over ten years.

    Adusting to incorporate more of his (clearly beneficial) approach is simply taking time, but I feel prett ready for the next INT low. So if we are starting down now I will actually be happy.

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  188. ROBERT,

    >Let's see how this shorting game works, purchased, TZA @ 18.20

    I'd rather see you short silver
    :-)

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  189. made some good coin going opposite to Robert so far...maybe it's time to long :P

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  190. Robert, I'm with you. I am learning how to blend Gary''s approach with my own. I did very well buying heavily at the July PM low and hope to do better at this next one. Good luck to us all!

    And just to be clear---I completely agree that "buy and hold during a bull" is much better for virtually everyone. I just get tired of the "it can't be done" stuff and "no one makes more than 20% over time." That is easily shown to be false. And how many Buffetts are there anyway? Comparing the very best buy-and-hold guy to an average trader is just apples and oranges. The very best traders beat the pants off him EVERY year.

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  191. DG wrote:

    "Sorry for the rant but, geez, give it a rest. From what I have seen Robert, Wes, and a few others know more about trading than you probably ever will. I can't wait to see all the whining that happens once gold starts down into its intermediate low"

    perhaps not all the comments are showing up, but who are/is the "you" that you refer to in the post? I don't see anyone dissing you for your trades. I don't see anyone dissing Wes either. The only comment I see is one where someone hoped Robert had a stop on his short he posted yesterday. If you or him find that insulting or critical then I would say you guys are little sensitive. I think that would speak more to the changes in society than anything to do with trading. People are so frikking sensitive these days. If you or anyone else is confident in what you are doing then who gives a crap what someone else thinks.

    I think it is interesting when you guys post your trades. personally, I do not have the time or desire to be a day trader and most likely would be broke now if I tried to without putting in the requisite research.

    I don't see how you think subs here at SMT will be whining when gold dips into its intermediate low as most of us are looking for it. In fact I bet most if not all subs will have booked some profits and wait for the low, and then load up again. Everyone has their own style, risk, signals or whatever.

    Obviously you have been making money or you wouldn't have been in the game for 30+ years. Good luck to everyone, trader, investor or anything in between.

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  192. TZ,

    I own no miners at the moment either, my only fear is that some of them I previous owned (I owned around 9 major/junior silver miners) may potentially have an offer price presented to them over the course of the next few months. The odds aren't that high, but I am able to live with this notion.

    That said, I do trust cycles, and do trust that the int. low will come like clock-work in the next few months. I will reload then also. I basically rode all the miners up to about 8-9% of their current prices. It was a good run, and yes I have the slightly bitter feeling of missed gains (that assumes I'd have the balls to sell today).

    I have been fortunate to make around 85% since I started trading again (late July). That said, 97% of that 85% came from long silver.

    GLTA

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  193. TZ I'll never ever ever ever ever, did I say EVER, short silver (well maybe when it's at $200-$500, but even it if ever hit those numbers there would be much better shorts around, if there is a bear market though, that is the number one requirement).

    Gary also told me he'd disallow my access to subscriptions, and he'd outlaw all subscriptions to MN residents if I were to publicly announce shorting silver. Just kidding of course, but you can see where I'm going. I love silver to death, it is the most attractive investment I've ever seen since researching since 2008. I knew of gold's prospects from 2003-2008 (never invested), but then really was turned on learning about silver. Hi Frickin' Ho Silver!

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