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Thursday, November 4, 2010

ONE OF THE GREATEST BLUNDERS IN HISTORY

Many years from now when we look back at history I think yesterday will be seen as one of the greatest blunders ever made by a central banker.

The dollar was already headed down into a major 3 year cycle low.


The first round of QE had already guaranteed that the dollar was going to be under severe duress by next spring. Bernanke just added insult to injury yesterday and virtually guaranteed we will have a major currency crisis by next spring.

I think history will come to view yesterday as the beginning of the end for the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and unless the Federal Reserve comes to their senses soon the dollar is doomed to follow every other fiat currency in history into an eventual hyperinflation and total devaluation. 

One has to protect their purchasing power from the depredations of central bankers bent on destroying the dollar. That means one has to exchange their paper dollars for real assets. It's not safe to hold cash. 

One can buy stocks but soaring inflation will destroy profit margins and the stock market is going struggle more and more to rise in the face of soaring input costs.

There is one and only one sector that is positioned to protect one's wealth from the Fed. That sector is of course precious metals. The more the Fed devalues the better the fundamentals become. Gold is now entering the parabolic phase of this particular leg of the ongoing C-wave advance.

I doubt we will ever see sub $1300 gold again for the duration of this secular bull. Now that the HUI and silver have broken to new all time highs we have a rare condition in that the entire precious metal sector is trading in a vacuum with no real overhead resistance. This is the only sector in the world in this position. That is the recipe for an incredible move higher in a short period of time as funds begin to chase the outperformance in this sector.

The key now is to spot the top and lock in profits, but not to exit too early, and believe me most traders and investors are going to exit too early because they will try to trade this based on oscillators and overbought levels. That will be a huge mistake during a parabolic surge.

I will reopen the 15 month subscription briefly for those that want to ride the bull and need a coach to keep them focused. And a voice of reason to get you out at the top when your emotions will urge you to stay at the party too long. 

249 comments:

  1. Gary,

    For someone like me who took nothing off my AGQ position yesterday, would I be wise to put more capital to work on this frothy Thursday?

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  2. As long as you have a position I would wait and see if we get a bit of a pullback in the first hour before adding. Usually these emotional opens give back at least a little during the first hour or two.

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  3. Thanks for the moral support guys. This morning I feel much better with the direction of the market...green screens everywhere :) :) . The SoS was telling us people were pulling out before the statement which is what we should have done also! Actually we would have gotten an even better position by waiting for the statement and entering at the end of the day so I think it is a great tool to have on our side.

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  4. Gary,

    What's the chance of getting caught in a major whipsaw here, buying way up here in the stratosphere only to see the dollar and PM's reverse?

    I bring this up because more often than not, whatever stocks do right after Fedspeak, they often reverse the next day or on Friday.

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  5. If it happens it will just be temporary. The dollar is now in a failed daily cycle with the next support at 74. I doubt we will see any significant pullback in metals or stocks until the dollar bounces off that support zone. So yes the metals may pullback later today or tomorrow but two weeks from now I exp;ect them to be many percentage points higher than today's open.

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  6. Gary,

    I'm fully invested 44% GDXJ and 56% SIL. Does it make sense at this point to move GDXJ into AGQ?

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  7. You might split it 3 ways instead of two.

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  8. Gary, what are your thoughts on GLDX?

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  9. Do we have new stops for GLD & SIL?

    Thank you.

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  10. Gary,

    Thank you for keeping me focused yesterday. There's no way I could have executed the trades successfully enough to come out on top today.

    Elaine

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  11. Don,
    stop remains the same.

    Arron,
    What is GLDX?

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  12. Golden Sacks has been long gold for awhile?

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/4_KWN_Source_Confirms_Goldman_Sachs_Long_Gold_for_Years.html

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  13. From the 'man inside' at the biiwii blog

    "...Names will be named and my COMEX brokers tell me that the seller who piled on with indiscriminate selling of ~10-15,000 DEC futures just before noon yesterday driving the price down over $30 bucks was J. Aron & Co, the commodity arm of one Goldman Sachs. "

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  14. added 1/2 positions right here. GDXJ, PAAS.

    Small position started in SLW.

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  15. Arron,
    I see it now. Perhaps a small bet. It is fairly illiquid.

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  16. Gary, it just opened today, its an ETF of explorers...
    Thank you for your thoughts

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  17. Gary,

    we just started this parabolic rise and you are already are looking to sell at the top. With that in mind, what is your timetable for the top on this move. i'm hoping itss no5t in the next 2 - 3 days. Thanks.

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  18. GLDX is the new Global X Funds ETF for gold explorers. They are the same folks that brought us SIL. GLDX just launched today. It will track the Solactive Global Gold Explorers Index:

    Here's the index composition: http://www.structured-solutions.eu/aktuelle-zusammensetzung.html?isin=DE000SLA0GE2

    Here's the ETF summary: http://www.globalxfunds.com/fundsummary.php?fundid=19122&catid=22

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  19. bam,
    I'll discuss it in tonight's report.

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  20. Gary, isn't this the reverse of what you were predicting in terms of coming out of the coil? So could we get a reversal of this action on the jobs number friday and given the extended cycle of the up move?

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  21. I've discussed this in the nightly reports. I think this will be one of those times when the coil doesn't follow the normal pattern.

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  22. Gary (and anyone else who cares to comment),

    Can you tell me again why the selling on strength (or buying on weakness) numbers on the WSJ webpage are useful ONLY for SPY?

    Today I see large block trades in the selling on strength page for leaders such as XOM, AAPL, C, GE, and GOOG. Makes me wonder whether we're seeing a selling climax here and we'll have our first significant pullback in stock since the late August low. And also whether PM's might get sucked in to that downdraft.

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  23. Pim, The SOS numbers would be much higher than that for an "end is near". Go back and look at late Dec 07 and you will see what I mean. I forget the exact date. Just start at the end of the month and work your way back.

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  24. Gary,
    It does seem we are in the parabolic blow off phase of the c`wave. I would expect what you are saying in your report, especially with the dollar crisis due nxt yr...

    when oil went parabolic, it didnt seem to pullback at all until the top, but with GOLD it will for 2 reasons, right?

    In Dec, people may sell to lock in capitol gains taxes at this yrs rate ( they still go up nxt yr)& also a small bounce in the dollar. you still old turkey through all that (maybe no leverage)

    thx

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  25. Now that I know gold isn't in a runaway move I will try to get out of a big chunk of my positions later this winter when I think this particular phase is done. Then I will look to re-enter after the intermediate decline has bottomed although it will probably be more of a sideways consolidation than a real correction.

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  26. Thanks, Brian.

    I'm not expecting an IT top here, more like a pullback that lasts a few days to a couple of weeks.

    But your suggestion to compare prior tops with today is a good one. I could look at early August top or the late June top, for example.

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  27. Pime: That's because when the smart-money pros want to hedge their long portfolio they trade SPY not anything else.SoS is used to time a general market top so SPY is the only relevant equity to watch. I don't know if anyone has studied individual stock money flows, but if someone has I'd love to hear it.

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  28. DG,
    For the most part individaul stocks are worthless. I looked at it a bit and didn't really find any predicitive value for anything other than the SPYDER's.

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  29. SVM is by far my best holding, although all are doing well.

    This is one I'd like to add to, if it ever pulls back.

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  30. GLDX is clearly a "true" junior index. I am familiar with about half the names in there.

    Sabina is a high flier, having more than tripled YTD. Unfortunately, I don't own it.

    This ETF could go hyper-parabolic if gold goes parabolic.

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  31. 9200,
    I discussed the dollar in last nights report and I'm going to go over it agian tonight.

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  32. okay, SPY is now showing up on the SoS page. Not a big dollar amount yet -28.1, but the day is still young.

    I find it interesting that IWM and QQQQ are showing up there as well.

    And, on the BoW page, FAZ and PSQ (short QQQ) are showing up .

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  33. I think the new Global X fund GLDX is a real sign of the times and confirmation that we're in a major bull market.
    The fund consists of some real speculative exploration stocks and the majority of the 30 holdings are market capped below $1B, so some of it is in the micro-cap arena. I guess as a speculative holding this ETF certainly could really take off, even more than the juniors too. But if today's volume is any indication and judging by the makeup of the fund, I wouldn't be holding too much of it.

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  34. Pima,

    Those are hedges, very tiny numbers.

    If you've been looking at SoS and BoW over time you'd come to totally ignore those tiny amounts. Look for $200, or now with all Ben's dollars, $300 million for anything meaningful in SPYDERs.

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  35. Gary,

    If you had to guess, in this winter consolidation, what would you guess the Gold and Silver price would be at that time?

    And oh yeah, not to rub it in, but I think FRMSF, SVM, SLW, AXU, and AGQ will over time SMASH the SIL! I just got tired with HL, PAAS, CDE, SSRI, etc, they are too "plain" and their floats are too big. Let me know if you think I'm wrong (maybe only time will tell).

    Thanks,

    Robert

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  36. Gary,

    I don't think its ignorance the DXY is crashing. My little sister could figure out how to debase a currency. It is just a new form of taxation.

    -Robert

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  37. Not new, but something "Americans" don't know much about!

    The Europeans are well used to currency devaluation, hence why so many more of them buy PMs.

    It's estimated that only 2% of Americans own PMs.

    What percentage of financial advisers you think are buying PMs for their clients. LOL, NONE!

    All my friends work in financles and they are head over heels on Citi. They all are taught to avoid commodities at all costs.

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  38. thanks, Robert.

    So the -28 mill on SPY right now could amount to 50 or 60 million by end of day. If that number needs to be -200 or greater to be significant, then unless things change radically in the next few hours, today will not be an SoS day.

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  39. Robert,

    You're right, it's a form of taxation, but it's not new. Been going on ever since the Fed was created nearly 100 years ago. It's just that in the past year or two the tax rate of that tax has gone way up!

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  40. Pima,

    Correct. Those numbers can add up though over consecutive days. If you saw 5 days in a row of -60 you might want to think more about it.

    BUT, IMO that is just noise right now. The focus should be holding onto a massive PM equity position until a very nice parabolic top. We are weeks/months away from that so just sit tight and don't let anything get you off the bull. You'll hear many things many times about "dollar bounces", "SoS", "Swing Highs", although Gary mentions all of these many people forget he says he's holding his positions (the bull always surprises to the upside!). These are good things to know and look out for, especially if you have some try powder, but ignore them for now, and just listen to G-Man for when he removes a significant amount of his positions.

    GLTA

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  41. Gee, this isn't too much fun, is it? SLW is running. Must have built up some steam. Its racing the AGQ. I love a launch.

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  42. Finally silver is getting some f'in respect!

    It the most conductive element on the planet!

    That RICO suit also helps. Combined with being an ex-monetary metal for the last 20000 years. Hi Ho Silver!

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  43. SLW up over 9%....

    About 2 years ago it was trading below $3.

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  44. My day is not complete without a visit to Jesse's blog. But today's post was especially delightful.


    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/11/sprott-adds-65-million-ounces-of-silver.html

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  45. SVM up 16% today! WOW!

    I see EXK breaking out with good volume, and on yearly charts, it has NO OVERHEAD RESISTANCE soon, and even $5.50 was minute volume.

    This one could move fast once she breaks...in my uhmble opinion.

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  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  47. Gary, you made a good point when you said...

    'Now that I know gold isn't in a runaway move I will try to get out of a big chunk of my positions later this winter when I think this particular phase is done.'

    BUT now you have me thinking...this could start a run-away move...Because Mr Bernanke has opened the gates, and todays volume looks like people are cramming in.

    we'll have to watch for that in time :)

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  48. Gary's right, surprises come on the upside in bull markets.

    Anybody that shorted PM's and miners deserves the beating they're taking.

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  49. SoS numbers so far today:

    SPY -50
    QQQQ -24
    IWM -58

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  50. Read a comment on another blog yesterday that reported that if all the QE II money was put into the SPY etf, that would amount to buying 2000 SPY shares EVERY SECOND during regular trading hours for the next 7 months!

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  51. This is getting a little ridiculous. I suspect we might see a little mean reversion tomorrow.

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  52. whee - couldn't help myself, but bought GDX 60 calls right before the Fed Meeting for 0.03, and sold them today for 0.30 - that's the kind of hyperinflation I like :)
    I know, I know, slap me on the wrist, but I only risked $75 in my small potatoes account

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  53. I saw cnbc yesterday , FAST MONEY. The smart one was pounding his fist to buy gold, another said ...Golds reaction was weak after the fed...the $$ already baked into it...I AM SHORT GOLD, and suggest you do the same!!


    BAAA HAAA HAAA HAAA!!

    Eat your SHORTS! :)

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  54. the day is not over, iwm may come down from here..

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  55. Well, I'm getting a lesson on monitoring SoS numbers during the day. The SPY has completely disappeared from the list! Looks like the big boys are using any small pullback to buy.

    So apparently these numbers don't mean much intraday (unless they are huge). Numbers at the close are the ones to look at.

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  56. I usually zip through Fastmoney on the DVR. There is one particularly smug dimwit called, ironically, Cortes (he's not on there frequently) who is always proclaiming that he is short gold.

    However, I noticed yesterday that both the Italian oil trader and the "Armenian gypsy" were pumping GDXJ. That's unusual that such a name gets a mention, although they were talking about SLW the other week. We will know it's time to get out when they are salivating about the like Sabina Silver and Gold.

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  57. Cortez is short gold!

    Riding backwards in the saddle off the south rim of the Grand Canyon.

    Frank, you're killing it.

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  58. Frank

    it was actually the 1/2 hr version at lunchtime, but same players. The guy with the pony tail is pretty sharp, watches put/calls a lot and trades where big $$ goes. He called buy Gold. not sure who the other was, but he's sad today no doubt.

    There was a chart guy too. ( they interview 2 of them, Gartman & another) that was not liking gold. Says he was in it from 2001, but its done...he is sad too.

    Gary should be on CNBC, no one talks cycles on there.

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  59. The guy with the pony tail is the "Armenian gypsy". He's an extreme short term trader. And when he comments on the big picture he will go on about that it's better to buy copper, oil or other "useful" commodities. Loves to pump FCX.

    Cortes is a slightly fat guy with greasy lips and smug attitude.

    Then we have "Guy's Adummy" who claims to have been a GS gold trader. He is a gold permabear but has given into the relentless price action. He warns the CNBC retail investor that it is going to "end ugly, it always does in gold". And he's probably been saying that since $600.

    This is extremely blinkered. If the guy traded gold in the 1990s (he looks too young for the 1980s)then, sure, it was quite ugly longer term. We entered a different era in the 2000s, a so-called secular change. This kind of mindset is shocking for a so-called successful trader. I guess he wouldn't be moonlighting on CNBC if he had any real skills.

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  60. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  61. Without an 'i told you so', I simply want to point out that the Fed or 'guys-in-charge' did exactly what I said they would do yesterday.

    They didn't want the news of the night to say "...and immediately on QE2...gold and silver SURGED to NEW HIGHS!"

    So...they slammed the metals down before lunch in a clear attack.

    The metals were strong enough to come ALL THE WAY BACK by close, but the mission was *accomplished*.
    Gold and silver did NOT hit new highs for they day. They didn't even gain a penny.

    Yes, *today* all the gains are happening including the NEW HIGHS on metals, but they kept gold/silver out of the news and out of being a 'connection' on the day that mattered. They made it impossible for the news of the day to including "this means you need to dump dollars and be in gold and silver" in most mainstream commentary.

    Yes the metals are manipulated lower (or slowed in their ascent). They are a direct threat to the functioning of the fiat monetary theft system. This will become clearer and clearer to those who doubt it as time passes.

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  62. Gary,

    Can you answer Robert's ques from 9:05 this morning. I am interested in the answer as well.

    Thanks,

    Steven

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  63. thank god for the manipulation...otherwise I wouldn't have been able to add to my big stack and gain even more today :)

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  64. I love how well "they" are manipulating gold. If this keeps up and they keep manipulating it lower I'll be very happy in a few months! I doubt manipulation is true, but even if it is, who cares what they do for an hour or two? They're going to "manipulate" it all the way to $1600. No one can hold back the tides, including the Hunt Brothers---er---Fed. Besides the dollar collapse and gold rally will be all over the news and everyone with a fraction of a brain will be linking it to QE II.

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  65. Frank...you nailed it.

    I like that show out of all the cnbc, because they are slightly 'with it'. The Armenian gypsy ,as you call him, is sharp in my opinion. Guy Adummy...he is wrong more often than not, and I CANNOT believe he was a GS gold trader,but I heard that too. You are right, he must have rode trades down all through the '90s, lost his job, and knew someone at the station for the job he has now.

    Overall entertaining, I do enjoy it from time to time.Theres a uy on there always buying Brazil and other BRIC eqiuties. He has always liked oil & gold & metals, so I give him credit too.

    Again tho, someone at lunch yesterday CALLED THE TOP in gold and advised we all go short Gold...cant wait to see if he comes on again...with tire tracks across his head :)

    p.s. who's the girl ( not the host) and HOW DID SHE GET THAT SPOT?? Is she ever right with her lagging fundamental analysis??? "BUY WALMART!!!" YAY

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  66. Gary,

    I know you talk about coil action on bottoms, can the same apply to tops? For example, if this breakout out of the coil gets reversed in 2 weeks, would you say the market stock 'might' have topped?

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  67. Gary: I am not a "buy the whole wad at once" kind of trader. I have quite a nice chunk of GDXJ/SIL (thanks!) but would like to add more on the way up over the next week or so. I assume there is no particularly intelligent way to do this other than buying down openings or other spots of weakness. If there is a tip you can pass along, I'm all ears!

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  68. Gary upgrading your Hawaii hotel to 5 stars? :*)

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  69. GDX through 60.....

    Even stodgy old GFI is up nearly 8%.

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  70. DG, surely this being a 90% up day we're bound to get some pullback tomorrow and maybe Friday. But judging from previous moves, it hasn't been easy nor has it paid to try to chase and game a few points, when the risk is it moves away like today. I'm sure plenty of people held out from buying the open only to see this thing gap higher all day long.

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  71. As much as it feels like we should get a pullback, my indicators are telling me there is much more to come on the upside.

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  72. And I'm referring to short term indicators. For the long term, I defer to Gary.

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  73. Polly: Normally I would agree but there are times when a realization/sudden shift sinks in and you get buying panics that can go on for a few days. By the time they pull back it is from a much higher price and you'd have been better off holding your nose and buying into the up day(s). If your crystal ball is working, let me know which this is! I bought a little more GDXJ at 38.85 this morning thinking I was nuts and it's up well since then.

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  74. What a day! Are you sure we shouldn't take profits here?

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  75. Hey Shalom, I thought your editorial in the Post was pretty moronic.

    You know, there must be a better way to reduce the mortgage payment on 1349 Independence Ct than printing $600 billion.

    Seriously, folks, read this crap and weep: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110307372.html

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  76. Sorry Frank, but I only know one thing, and that's how to print.

    Hope you're longed-up to the gills!

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  77. Silver's chart is about the prettiest one I've ever seen.

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  78. I hope nobody sold anything, we'll see higher prices tomorrow even if we open lower.

    More to come, fellas.

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  79. DG, go with your gut, there is no right answer here.

    This last hour move was a little "heated". Going to be a sweat holding over the next few weeks :)

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  80. and was interesting that the dollar didn't exactly collapse in tandem today, relatively flat or up since the -.75% open.

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  81. if gold doesnt hit $1405 tonight i will eat Gary's hat ! (granted he gives it to me) :)

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  82. ATTN BEDE:

    My humble advice...

    If you look at your 3 month charts and look at the AUGUST lows for say -- SSRI or SLW or PAAS or HL or PAL or NG...you see where they were AUG lows and where they went OCT high??

    We are at the start of another run like that. Its like we are at the AUGUST LOWS AGIN.. If you sold sept 1st for profit , you'd feel sick about it later.

    I am holding on for a few weeks ( it may get bumpy, but it'll almost surely be a bumpy ride upwards!

    Please sit on your hands for a bit :) even if down tomorrow at the start, the upside is where this is going.

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  83. RAZVAN....GREEEEEEN SCREEEEENS!!! :)

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  84. Shalom, not really. I have only 50% of my liquid net worth in PMs. It's part of my conservative nature I suppose.

    The only recent buying I have done is in under-valued things like NXG and JAG. They under-perform on momo days like this. But both are up 5% so not complaining.

    Maybe it's time to stop stock picking and focus on the big picture. I am looking at GLDX with some interest for easy exposure to the junior end.

    p.s. GDXJ prints 40.00 after hours.

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  85. I noticed the $40 print too, nice.

    What's also interesting is that GDXJ easily had it's biggest volume day today, as did many of the miners.

    GLD, SLV and most of the miners had double and some even triple their average volume today.
    However QQQQ and SPY barely broke above average volume, interesting.

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  86. Ok...TZ...I don't want to hear about Head and shoulders, inverse sideways up/own triangle FlintRubble Bubble cake. I just want you to post that you FINALLY bought some gold/silver??? There were some great entry's the last week or so...did you any? You gotta make cash instead of worrying about charts..

    just busting your chops..haha

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  87. WARNING FOR PM BULLS:

    Today's action convinced Tim Knight that gold miners (GDX) are up for an amazing run. We've been warned.

    Next we're going to have Justin rearing his head again to announce he's a precious metals bull.

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  88. I seem to recall some people complaining about gold never moving up more than 2%...

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  89. True catbird, that is not a good sign. I'm not selling yet, but we might have some rough days in the near future.

    The good news is Tim will flip-flop back to bearish after the first down day.

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  90. We're having fajitas tonight, which got me thinking "I bet Gary's having Mexican tonight as well". :)

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  91. Catbird, not to worry! Even a broken clock it right at times...

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  92. INSANE day. Been watching some of the rare earths stocks and I kept thinking when is this going to happen with the gold and silvers???

    I don't know how you add on a day like today, I saw SSRI not up as much and grabbed some quickly, was loading up on PSLV as it was undervalued but since is a trust this could be premium issues. I had my target list of stocks to buy that looked oversold and could be worth riding a bit so I bought a little of each. (JAG, MFN, XRA, NXG, NAK, HL, GSS, GBG) These started the day only slightly up and ended gaining or staying flat. Sold some yesterday and wanted to re enter this am and was hoping we would get opening weakness, but not even close. Sad to say I lost my SLW, SVM and ANV positions yesterday. That plan looked good on paper, but I got punked!

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  93. 'Old Turkey' Jay. Old Turkey.

    Take a load off and join me and Pool Boy, we're having ice-cold martinis poolside.

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  94. I was looking to top off the tank and yesterday got me flustered not knowing if I should add or not based on the reaction, but now it looks like get on board or miss this move into the end of the year.

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  95. Haven't talked to much...simply been holding through this entire thing..did nothing, seemed too much work and too complicated. I went with the Ben's a moron investment approach.

    Poolboy, Napboy and I got into a fight about what to do first. We decided to drink beer sleeping in the pool.

    Gobble Gobble

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  96. TOday was my iggest gain ever...why do I feel so scared?

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  97. I hope the great Richard Russell does not mind me quoting from his subscriber post tonight:

    "Gold continues to climb higher in its primary bull market. Primary bull markets tend to wipe away all mistakes. Primary bull markets also tend to rise higher than anyone thinks possible. Buy gold at the highs, buy gold on a correction, buy gold when its in a confusing consolidation, and within five years you'll thank the day when you bought it. "

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  98. Not scared about the positions, btw.

    I will adding appx 5% on any down day prior to the close. A down day tomorrow would be a gift in my opinion.

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  99. If I'm not mistaken, Sprott still has lots of proceeds from the PSLV offering to put to work. Higher prices for silver in the near future.

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  100. Is anyone else buying PSLV? I've been jumping on it big time, but don't think it's gotten much press so many don't know about it yet. I added a bunch yesterday and today.

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  101. ALEX

    Thanks for the encouraging advice. I'm "old turkey!" But the urge to book the profits is strong.

    ;-)

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  102. Fusby, I hear you. Upon waking up and checking the tape, the first thing I felt was fear. THAT is very odd - it sure seems I should have been elated at the huge increase in my account balances instead. But fear it is, and it hasn't gone away. Regardless of how much money we make, we all know that it is because things are getting worse and not better. It sucks to see America go down the drain.

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  103. Holy smoke, I turn on CNBC and catch the end of Jim Cramer: "Gold is not a commodity, it's a currency."

    I used to think that the guy was a moron.

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  104. LowTax

    Yep, I know the feeling exactly. There's a bit of cognitive dissonance here as I see my positions rise in value by leaps and bounds, but realizing why it's happening. But I sure am glad to be positioned well here to survive the storm.

    Thanks to Gary, again, as he has called this thing masterfully. So many others out there are completely lost on what's happening, sure that the stock market should tank any second. The cycle theory is flat out the best, no doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  105. I've gotten worried about holding a large position in PMs at times lately as they've relentlessly cruised higher in value, just because of a natural contrarian bent and because I can't help but think that surely Bernanke will wake up to the insanity of his monetary policy.

    But then I take a sampling of the mainstream media/economist viewpoint out there and realize that they don't have a clue and continue to think that we have to do this, etc. And then there's Bernanke's Wash Post editorial laying out his thoughts on QE2, and that lays all those concerns to rest. It's going to go on and on, and the dollar is being beaten like an abused step child. It's ugly.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Bernanke and other Keynesians fear deflation and have an arrogant belief that they control inflation in the unlikely (to them) event that CPI inflation starts to accelerate. So he will never come to his senses.

    In the modern post-Volker era, CPI has been rigged and that guarantees that there is no follow through on wages from Joe Sixpack like in the 1970s. And we've had this 25+ era of asset inflation in various forms. Through the end of the 1990s they had a grip over gold and commodities but that slipped post-2000. Now all they can do is pump up non-leveraged assets.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Gary officially announced retirement today with this move and moved to Hawaii already?

    That's the word on the street.

    I know, I know. Gary's at the casino, possibly strip club with today's success.

    It's possible he overdid the Mexican lunch knowing how many burritos he could afford and is still passed out, or maybe he had no worries in the world today with this morning's jump that after lunch he decided to join the Mexican's for a siesta and their still out cold.

    Gary, what's up?

    ReplyDelete
  108. Anyone else today achieve 14% gains for their total portfolio! Gary I owe you 1.4% then, its written in the clauses, right?

    ReplyDelete
  109. NAT,

    >Ok...TZ...I don't want to hear about Head and shoulders, inverse sideways up/own triangle FlintRubble Bubble cake. I just want you to post that you FINALLY bought some gold/silver??? There were some great entry's the last week or so...did you any? You gotta make cash instead of worrying about charts..

    I went "RAZVAN" on silver futures last night around midnight. (Sorry Raz :-)

    I'm now up over $1.30 with solid status.

    I also got gold futures today as they were congesting around the previous high. I expected an imminent break and it happened.

    Today was a 'recognition' day. You could see it across the board. It was recognition (1) by those waiting for lower buying points that they simply won't arrive - the train is gone they have to either not play or buy up now. (2) It was also a recognition by people who didn't know what the markets were doing lately, what to buy, and whether gold was the answer. They are slowly realizing it is.

    HUGE sums of money are trying to flood into this sector. This is PHASE 2 with Institutional/Billionaire type money. The clown masses are PHASE 3. They will START asking question and tip-toeing in the water at the END of this C wave (only to get crushed). And then finally join during the next A-B-C wave after that.

    I bought last night cause I figured 'da boys' threw all they had at the metals before fed and yet they only managed a drop of a few hours. So I called those lows my stop points (higher now) and jumped in.

    I'm not going to go into how much leverage I put on (maybe later) cause gary will just lecture me, but suffice to say it is large an will easily compensate for earlier missed gains. (It is also leverage NORMAL with how I trade.)

    I expect silver $35 or higher (cause everybody else is expecting $30) and $1600 in gold in this leg up. (Although since everybody seems to think this then maybe we really top at $1800.)

    Silver might actually go nuts if the shorts get squeezed out and it turns into a 'commercial signal failure' as others discuss. $50? who knows. Like gary, I prefer silver more here than gold.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Anyone own AXU?

    Anyone have a quick synopsis on this company?

    ReplyDelete
  111. Jay,
    I haven't bought PSLV yet, but will convert my silver etf's to that one at some point. I think once they get fully invested and things temper a little it'll be the best.

    I do own PHYS, along with 3 miners and both SIL and GDXJ.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Shalom-

    Good to know you have your eye on it. I think once people learn about PSLV it's going to be a hot fund.
    Regarding AXU...A good thread over at Kitco is discussing various juniors. Here's a summary from one of my buddies over there-

    "Alexco (AXU/AXR) is a top shelf silver junior that also performs "environmental cleanup" of former mining sites reclaiming gold and silver while simultaneously cleaning up tailings and other detritus around former mines. They are paid by the government for their cleanup and get to profit off the recovered metals. They also do mining themselves. An excellent future blue chip stock IMO"

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=67230

    ReplyDelete
  113. Steven,
    I expect it to be more of a consolidation rather than a correction. Probably more sideways to let the 200 DMA catch up.

    ReplyDelete
  114. EricH,
    I wouldn't be looking for a top anytime soon with the Ben throwing free money at the market.

    This one is basically a no brainer. As long as the dollar is collapsing down into the yearly cycle low one has to protect themsleves from the Fed. That means you have to buy something real.

    ReplyDelete
  115. DG,
    I doubt we will see much of a correction until the dollar tags support at 74. There's a lot of air between where the buck is now and 74. One has to ask themselves does it really matter if I enter and then have to weather a one or two day minor drawdown before the dollar gets busy heading down to 74?

    ReplyDelete
  116. Robert,
    I've been out climbing most of the day and no Mexican for me until Sunday night. I'm going to another weightlifting meet Sunday and I'm still about 3 lbs overweight. So I will be dieting the next several days. You better believe I will be eating a big burrito come Sunday night though.

    ReplyDelete
  117. True statement:

    Take same amount of food/callories:

    1) eat majority in morning - lose weight

    2) eat majority at lunch - same weight

    3) eat majority at dinner - gain weight

    ReplyDelete
  118. Demark boy here on the scene of the dollar collapse, as always for what it's worth. Doesn't seem like anything can get the market down or gold/silver. But in Demark terms, we are in the midst of weekly sell signals on everything - Dow, SPX, NDX, Russell, gold, silver, you name it - sell signals on weeklies are good for 3 months (12 weeks) which would take us into January. But another key thing happened today, the dollar recorded a perfected buy setup on a weekly basis. Starting next week through the first week of December, there is the potential for a dollar rally that might take us back to that 80 level again. I'm seeing some funky behavior in the Euro today/tonight - you would think it would have been up to 143/144, but Ireland and other things are weighing it down around 142. Resuming the sovereign debt crisis is not bad for gold/silver as we know, but just be aware there could be a pause in all of this euphoria. Still looking at that DXY 72.5 level to be hit to reach long-term exhaustion - this is the monthly level. This level being hit would be indicate a 1-year (12 months) signal. Quarterly exhaustion level HAS already been achieved at 76.69 - folks, this is a 3 year long signal of dollar strength (12 quarters)! See http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/Gold/9/8/2009/id/24328, especially the section "The Dollar, Technically". I know, I know, the article is over a year old and even I have to laugh at "dollar is near bottoming and gold is near topping", but then the Euro crisis happened. In sum, I believe we will have our dollar "collapse", but it may not be as deep as being reported here.
    Keep on your toes, and thanks for reading!

    ReplyDelete
  119. The 3 year cycle low for the dollar isn't due till next spring. This is just getting started!

    ReplyDelete
  120. coolkevs,



    for christ's sake the dam just broke and now you're trying stop it! Get your head on straight!

    ReplyDelete
  121. Gary,

    what are your projections for the winter consolidation in terms of gold and silver prices at that time??? thanks, and good luck on the weight loss...

    ReplyDelete
  122. No clue. I'll just watch how the cycles unfold.

    ReplyDelete
  123. coolkev,

    with all due respect this has to be the dumbest statement I have ever heard.

    "sell signals on weeklies are good for 3 months (12 weeks) which would take us into January"

    so you are telling people to sell now and come back in 3 months. If it goes against you then hold for 3 months, then cover.

    maybe it's just me but that sounds ignorant!

    ReplyDelete
  124. CK is trying to call a top based on overbought conditions. Unfortunately bull markets can get extremely overbought. Then they get even more overbought. And then more overbought.

    It's a fools game trying to pick a top in a powerful bull run with oscillators. Oscillators are for when markets are in trading ranges.

    ReplyDelete
  125. I know nobody has any clue to that question but some have more "educated" guesses than others. Would you care to share some "guesses"? Thanks, Robert.

    ReplyDelete
  126. I'm a definite, life-long re-subscriber. ;)

    And once my buddies see the money I'm making they'll pour in too.

    ReplyDelete
  127. KWN:

    “If silver holds for a few hours above $25.50, they (local traders who have been invited short) will just capitulate. You could see a $1 move in an hour if there is a race for the exits. Above $25.50, the locals that are short will literally get margin calls and will have to exit their shorts and it could become disorderly on the upside.


    The jaws are closing on these shorts. The silver market is underpinned by everyone who is waiting in the wings to accumulate, that is why you saw the extraordinary buying yesterday off of the lows which continues in today’s trading.”


    There was also mention that the industrial users of silver are close to losing faith in the banks which have been telling them there are no problems with silver supplies:


    “The industrials, when they see that there is tightness or delays in shipping, will then go out and stockpile silver so their assembly lines are not shut down. We would then be talking about potentially tens of millions of ounces required for delivery to these industrial users in a short period of time. The banks have told these industrial users for years that there is no problem with silver supplies. When these industrial users lose faith in the banks, they will move right away to secure stockpiles.”

    ReplyDelete
  128. Gary: Great day today! Thanks! Is this offer for new subscribers or can existing subscribers add to their subscription?
    Like Robert, I'd love to be a subscriber till the final blowout top!
    Good Luck to all!

    ReplyDelete
  129. Nick,
    As long as you don't have recent year subscription you can add.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Let me bother you guys with my first post by asking what is SoS and what is BoW ?

    Where/how can I learn to use these "tools" ?

    I couldn't find information about them in the Terminology page.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Buying on Weakness and Selling on Strength. It's a sign that smart money institutional investors are expecting a top or bottom.

    If you look through a few of the nightly reports you will find links to the page in the Wall Street Journal where the data is published daily.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Thanks Gary,

    I have a little over a year to go on my current subscription...Please keep these offers coming!

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  133. Good list of silver miners ranked by all types of criteria by a friend on Kitco.


    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AoStOj0lu5BZdFlqMzRXbTBhWThoYmpfTURpUWpYY2c&hl=en&gid=1

    ReplyDelete
  134. Looks like I now owe you a burrito, Gary, but I still revel in the fact that I am the only one here to win a bet against you. Shouldn't have doubled down on the second bet, but I must say my portfolio has thoroughly enjoyed losing that bet ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  135. Yes you have proven to be a very resourceful opponent :)

    ReplyDelete
  136. Now you sheep be very good tonight,

    remember one thing,

    soon, very soon, you need to sell all your mining shares, I don't care if you like gold or silver more,

    but, you must, I repeat must,

    transfer everything into GLD and SLV.

    do as your told, protect your assets from inflation, buy cars today to protect your wealth, and if someone give you the crazy idea of buying gold, gld is your ONLY option.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-step-inflation-survival-guide-2010-11-05

    ReplyDelete
  137. Anyone know the model number of our printing press?

    I want to send one to Greece.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Robert: "....and if someone give you the crazy idea of buying gold, gld is your ONLY option."

    Sorry, doesn't compute.
    Is there something I need to know - or are you joking?

    {8-o

    ReplyDelete
  139. "While is true that gold/silver are heavily overbought now and PM stocks are either in heavily overbought territory or rapidly approaching heavily overbought territory, during strong runs in past gold/silver bulls, the underlying metal prices and stock prices have remained in overbought territory for months on end. This alone is not a reason for a correction as Central Bankers have been fighting the fundamental weaknesses in their fraudulent global monetary system daily for quite some time now. When bankers legalize fraud through the legislation they sponsor/endorse, technical analysis is insufficient to ascertain the short-term direction of not only stock markets but also gold/silver markets." -Zero Hedge

    ReplyDelete
  140. Gary,

    are you surprised the dollar has traded back over 76.16 this morning? thanks

    ReplyDelete
  141. Why is there some rule that says that an asset can't trade back above a certain level?

    We still have 5 to 15 days before the cycle is due to bottom. I expect it will make it down to 74 before it bottoms. How it gets there is insignificant but I am confident it will get there before this short term cycle ends.

    Those traders that dragged their feet yesterday are getting another chance this morning. I suggest they don't make the same mistake twice.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Gary - Gold:Silver ratio is down to 53. Do you expect that when gold hits it's intermediate high that the ratio will be down around 46-47 such as it was in 2008? My gold & silver price history doesn't go back further than 2008. What's the lowest it's gotten at gold high turning points? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  143. Paul Tudor Jones´ Latest Letter to Investors:

    http://dealbreaker.com/2010/10/paul-tudor-jones-latest-letter-to-investors/

    Very good insights.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Miners have a long way to run, IMO.

    Btw, couldn't get that Tudor Jones pdf to come up, but I know he's a buyer of what worked best so far in 2010, like ags, gold, and even India's Nifty Fifty.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Jay,

    I stand corrected on the PSLV. It looks as though Sprott has already put all the proceeds from the offering to work.

    I'll be a buyer at some point, both with new funds and proceeds from rotation out of SIVR.

    ReplyDelete
  146. AGQ prints $120.....F**ing Rock Star!


    That marks a 100% gain on the stock, thanks Gary!!! Add a tip jar to the site so I can throw you one AGQ NOV $100 Call :-)

    ReplyDelete
  147. thank God for the bull market otherwise all this back and forth trading would make us dead broke in a millisecond ! :)

    ReplyDelete
  148. Razvan,

    So true. I would venture to state that Gary would be on the sideline if not for the bull in PMs.

    That's no bull,lol.

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  149. lol no, Gary has the discipline necessary to exit when tings dont turn out the way he planned. As for us, we will either bail out too quickly or stay in position until there is nothing left.

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  150. Chyrs,
    42 was the low of this bull market. Historically the average is about 20-25.

    ReplyDelete
  151. So far it's another nice day, and in the face of a stronger $USD.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Hi Gary,

    I dont see the 15 month subscription option when I click the link. Only 1 year...

    ReplyDelete
  153. I will convert it to 15 months on my side.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Gary said to buy 'em again this morning, so I added a little to my favorites. I don't expect I'll sell SVM before $23!

    ReplyDelete
  155. Shalom,

    Yeah, I held my nose, bit down on a stick, took a shot of Dewar's and bought a TAD more AGQ this morning. Half of what I usually buy.

    Goes against every instinct in my body, but you know, "this is a bull."

    If this drives the price down so newcomers have a better opportunity, they can thank me!

    ReplyDelete
  156. My hair feels like it's on fire, just like John Embry said it would.

    I'm just glad that everything is OK.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Isn't it something how the metals started strong this morning even as the USD spurted higher?

    Is that more of an expression of how oversold the USD was (dead cat bounce) or how strong metals are? I know it's a little of both, but a divergence like that can't last long.

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  158. The metals are startng to trade on momentum as more and more funds start to chase the move.

    It is the only sector in the world trading in a vacuum.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Agreed, the dollar has almost retraced the drop from yesterday and still the market and PMS especially aren't budging.

    ReplyDelete
  160. gary,

    although i have been trading for 3 years, im fairly new to options so excuse me for a newbie question. you mention that you buy calls with a beta greater than 80. how do you find out the beta number of a stock?

    ReplyDelete
  161. A delta greater than 80.

    Let me warn you that if you aren't completely familar with options then you have no business trading them. Options have destroyed more portfolios than the 29 crash.

    If you have only been investing 3 years I really doubt you are ready for options yet.

    Now is not the time to buy options anyway. That time will come at the bottom of the D-wave. Right now if you want to add a little leverage use margin.

    I'm going to lay out exactly what will happen to you if you choose to load up on call options thinking you've found a sure way to get rich quick.

    You go all in on at-the-money calls and next week we get a one or two day pullback. Your total portfolio takes a 75% haircut, you freakout and sell for a massive loss that then takes you a year or more to recover from. Or you go all in again trying to make back everything in one trade and the same thing happens. Now you've lost so much you can never recover.

    Trust me on this one this is not a get rich quick business. I will let everyone know when the time is right to use options, and when we do it, we will do it the right way.

    You would do yourself a big favor if you read the options doc in on the website.

    ReplyDelete
  162. So, in some weeks we'll have to reduce our exposure to PMs. As I have about 20 miners in my portfolio: Any opinion or studies about the best strategy what to sell?

    - the best performers? ("What rose most will drop most")
    - the worst performers? ("Sell your loosers, let your winners run")
    - other ideas? (equal haircut, ... )

    ReplyDelete
  163. I am going to go over what we will need to look for at the top in the weekend report.

    ReplyDelete
  164. gary,

    ok. thank you very much for the advice. I look forward to trading with you all!!

    ReplyDelete
  165. Gary,

    Dollar is ralling from 76 levels. is it a sign to book book some profits or we should just switch off and let the bull run.

    V

    ReplyDelete
  166. SPY SoS -64 today so far. We'll see where the close ends up.

    TA has all kinds of reasons that we should see some kind of pullback here in stocks. Not sure if or how a pullback in the broader market will affect PM's or miners, but maybe we will get another chance to add to our positions.

    Dollar is surprisingly strong today.

    Bonds have been falling since Fedspeak which means interest rates are rising. That can only have a positive effect on the dollar, so maybe we are seeing a long term dollar bottom here. It's either that or rates need to reverse soon.

    ReplyDelete
  167. I am no longer taking the $USD as a cue to the metals since they have no problem going up together.

    Eventually the strong dollar/weaker metals relationship will resume, but for now all that matters is money is flooding into the sector=bull mkt.

    ReplyDelete
  168. My UUP hedge (Nov calls) is looking better today, as I added yesterday. If PMs are only going up as a non-leveraged function of dollar weakness then I am not too happy about it because it is a zero sum game.

    Especially since I am leaving the US in a few months.......

    ReplyDelete
  169. this gold market is such a tease! i hope we get passed 1400 today so i can close my positions

    ReplyDelete
  170. V,
    The only stop that make any sense is at $1315. Just twiddle your thumbs and let the bull do what bulls do.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Frank, are you leaving the US because you think things will get bad enough here that you would prefer to be somewhere else, or are you leaving the US for other reasons?

    What country are you moving to?

    ReplyDelete
  172. Just refreshsed the SoS page and now we have a pretty big number on the Q's -139. SPY is at -57.

    Stocks are certainly due for a pullback here, so maybe it's starting.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Rav,
    Let me ask you a question. If you close your positions at $1400 and then gold rallies to $1550 or $1600 are you going to wish you hadn't done that?

    ReplyDelete
  174. Raz,

    Why will you close your positions at 1400? If we hit 1400, then 1450, or 1500, could be next.

    ReplyDelete
  175. PC,
    Q's are meaningless only the SPY has any predictive value and it's not a very good timing tool. We could get -200-300 million and still have a month before a top arrives.

    ReplyDelete
  176. i am only closing for the weekend because i am very close to winning the traders challenge on my broker and there is $3000 prize! do not worry, Sunday at 6:00pm eastern time i will be back in! : )

    ReplyDelete
  177. out of the top 10 traders for this week i am the only one trading metals. Everyone is killing themselves trading currencies, mostly EUR/USD. lol if they only knew the power or the gold bull!

    ReplyDelete
  178. Gary, Where should our stops be now?

    ReplyDelete
  179. anyone know where i can get free real time quotes for the us dollar? thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  180. LOL Razvan, a few days ago you had margin calls, now you're winning competitions, hope you see the correlation.

    Next time you walk into the Bellagio, place a bet on Black 13 for me would you!

    ReplyDelete
  181. yes Poly isnt it ironic? i went from having a major depressive episode on Wednesday to a feeling of euphoria today. Like Gary said, the bull will correct the mistakes, i just didnt think it would be so fast!

    ReplyDelete
  182. You can also use UUP as a dollar proxy for following intraday moves.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Pima,

    I wish that I could say that I am fed up and leaving a sinking ship, but that's not the case. I am moving to Japan.

    So I am moving from one basket case country to another. :-)

    It's actually pretty interesting because Japan is going to have to start printing like crazy since its bond bubble is unsustainable due to demographics. As much as Krugman and co. would like to run up debt to 200% of GDP it's not possible for the USA.

    ReplyDelete
  184. POLL OF THE DAY:
    For those who want to divulge/discuss...
    ===========================
    HOW MUCH ARE YOU LEVERAGED?
    (And proportion of gold vs silver stuff)
    ===========================

    Gary I think is 1.3x
    Razvan?
    Others?

    If you don't mind I'd like to withhold my response for now :-)
    Pollster's privilege!

    ReplyDelete
  185. Dollar is worth watching. Breakdown is kind of failing for now. I will look forward to your thoughts on this Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  186. The dollar isn't even close to getting back above resistance at 77.

    Why are you worried about the dollar all of a sudden? We have a confirmed failed and extreme left translated cycle in progress.

    ReplyDelete
  187. How do you define leverage?

    I recall that Gary used to define naked options as the equivalent dollar amount of buying shares, so if you buy 100 GDX calls it is the equivalent of buying 10,000 shares of GDX. It is a good way of getting leverage without risk of a margin call, etc. but losses can be substantial on the amount risked unless you are deep ITM.

    In the fall of 2008 I had about 60% of my account in real dollar terms in miner calls.

    ReplyDelete
  188. lol How are you going to ask a question but not want to divulge your position??
    on my conservative account i am overall 10:1 and on the risky account 26:1 (70/30 gold to silver , gold more leveraged)
    I cannot compete with N1tro who is 400:1

    ReplyDelete
  189. FRANK:

    Few have (or should have) options. Just ignore them unless it's your entire portfolio or something like that.

    For futures, the NOTIONAL value is what counts. 1 gold contract is 100oz so that's $140,000 of a position regardless of how much margin it takes.

    I'll go into what I did last few days in a bit. Don't want to jinx it now. Not trying to be a jerk.

    ReplyDelete
  190. I think Poly's point is that you are just gambling and not investing. Can't make it "big" if you are day trading is the motto around here.

    ReplyDelete
  191. my account has the "potential" for 200:1 leverage. I'm using about 10:1 right now.

    ReplyDelete
  192. Just because I haven't seen it mentioned yet....

    Today is a tell. Dollar index is up, and Silver is trading like the dollar dropped half a percent. Next week, if the dollar drops, the metals will likely turn on the afterburners. There is a major put under the metals market. I added another 5% today. My next 5%add will be on a red day near the close.

    ReplyDelete

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