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Wednesday, November 10, 2010

CURVE BALL

For some time I've been of the opinion that the dollar will control the fate of not only the stock market but also our favorite bull market...precious metals.

Since June the dollar has been collapsing down into a yearly cycle low. I didn't expect that low until the dollar reached at least 74 and I thought it even more likely we would see 71 before the cycle bottomed. However yesterday the dollar threw us a major curve ball. What should have been a minor bear flag that would resolve with a downward break has gotten unexpected traction.

Yesterday the dollar broke the down trend line and it now appears clear that the dollar has formed a shortened daily cycle low.


If the dollar rises above 78.36 it will reverse the pattern of lower highs and the odds will rise significantly that we now have a shortened intermediate cycle bottom, which should also mark the yearly cycle low.


If that turns out to be the case then we can probably expect stocks and gold to turn down into an intermediate correction.

The stock market is definitely due for the intermediate correction as it is on week 19. (The cycle usually runs about 20 to 25 weeks so a top is now due.)

The gold cycle is a bit shorter at 15 weeks but still in the timing band for a top. If we end the week about where we are today then gold will form an exhaustion candle on the weekly charts.



This is why traders can't leverage themselves to the moon. These curve balls happen. If you get caught by one of these and you are leveraged to the max you will do catastrophic damage to your portfolio.

Trust me when I tell you this. Massive leverage always ends in a blown out account. There are never any exceptions to this rule. Never!

476 comments:

  1. Gary, question I posted at end of comments section from last post, reporting here:

    If yesterday's high was the intermediate top, we will wait for confirmation and then sell into the bounce that follows.

    Here's a question: If yesterday's high was the IT top and we follow the plan to sell into the bounce out of the IT low, what chance would you give that bounce being at a higher price than the price PM's are trading at today?

    I'm guessing that today's prices will turn out to be higher than the bounce out of the low. If that turns out to be the case and if the odds are high that we've seen the IT top (and it looks like they are), then it might make sense to take off some positions today and then wait to take off the rest (of the total that we're planning to take off) on the bounce out of the low.

    Does that make sense?

    ReplyDelete
  2. PC,
    I would need a crystal ball to tell you the answer to that one :)

    I do expect we will get a healthy bounce out of the next daily cycle low as everyone will expect the buy the dip strategy to continue working.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Okay, maybe I should rephrase the question: Do you have any idea how many more down days we'll have before we make a daily cycle low?

    Also, will the daily cycle low and the IT low be the same low?? Or will we see a daily cycle low, then a bounce, then another lower low that will be the IT low?

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  4. OUT positions; back to core;
    Made about 10-15% of my net worth in a week.

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  5. Told you: EUR was going for intermediate correction :)

    Looks like we have already seen the yearly top (USD bottom)

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  6. Well....the SPX has reversed hard almost immediately after exceeding the earlier high in april 2010....a repeat of the Double Top back in 2007, perhaps?

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  7. Is it reasonable to go "Old Turkey" at this point?

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  8. I bagged all of the long lines yesterday with that stupendous move. The rest in pre-market today.

    But 10-15% of net worth in a week, I dare not ask. :)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Gary,
    If the dollar breaks into new highs today, will you immediately sell some PM's or will you still wait for the rally?

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  10. EUR/USD (almost upside-down USDIndex)

    http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/2979/eur1.jpg

    http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/7848/eur2.jpg

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  11. PC,

    Without a crystal ball I can't tell you when a cycle will bottom. But I can say that the odds are we will see a bottom and then a failed cycle. Intermediate bottoms almost always take at least 3 weeks.

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  12. POLY,

    >But 10-15% of net worth in a week, I dare not ask. :)

    Let's just say I was up a lot more at noon yesterday. It was certainly a curve ball for everybody.

    But my positions were from much lower ($25 silver), the stops were in to control risk and I simply didn't expect the pullback. It happens, but yesterday was managable and didn't knock me out by far. Shame to lose those gains though.

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  13. Gary,

    If the sell signal is hit, do you anticipate just taking the leverage off and return to 100 % invested position, or do you plan to trim your core holdings as well.

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  14. Todd,
    I maintain my discipline which means I will sell during the bounce out of the coming daily cycle low if conditions call for it. But then I have big profits from the recent run so I can afford to stick with my plan.

    If you didn't get in at the July bottom like I did and you are in jeopardy of losing all your profits you might want to consider at least booking some profits if 78.36 is broken.

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  15. No fear, sweet babies. Whether we take a breather for a week or two (likely), or ricochet out of this decline, I believe this is the meat of the move lower as far as price is concerned. We're working off the overbought, and that can continue even with sideways action after today.

    In short, I like some prices here, but I don't expect them to start tacking on 5%/day again for a little while.

    Everything is OK. :)

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  16. Sandy,
    I will definitely trim. Probably back to 50%. I want plenty of dry powder to put to work at the bottom of an intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  17. So, Gary, you are saying that we will see a daily cycle low, followed by a bounce, then a move down into the intermediate cycle low, right? Two different lows, the second lower than the first.

    ReplyDelete
  18. And I was referring primarily to miners, not the S&P.

    IF we get another morning like this, I'm quite comfortable buying back Old Turkey style.

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  19. that downtrend line on the dollar chart to this report doesnt seem right. Couldnt it have been drawn against the top of oct 20 high too?

    Or when you go back to HGHS of Dollar in June and draw acroos the top of HIGHS in SEPTEMBER , the real downtrendline lines up with the 50 dma...near 78.80

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  20. Hui up...EXK up >50 , HL up too

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  21. good bounce to lighten up on if worried about a large leg down

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  22. its been a terrible couple of days guys... i am not happy at all about this action. We cant make a lot of money with this kind of bs.

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  23. Rav,
    You should have already made a ton of money. No market goes stright up forever.

    Eventually there is always an intermediate correction. The key is to buy the bottom of that correction. That's what I did in July and what I will attempt to do again if this turns out to be an intermediate decline.

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  24. For those of us who joined the party late (like end of October late) you recommend cutting back to 50% core if the dollar breaks 78.36? Or further back?

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  25. I can't tell you were your core position should be. Only you know that. It should be something you can ride through an intermediate correction and not get knocked out at the bottom.

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  26. i am still up a respectable 200% since july but i dont even want to think about where i was 3 days ago. A good thing i did when i was more profitable was to take some of the money out and convert to physical.

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  27. Gary - if on this forthcoming bounce what if it exceeds the recent highs? Would that mean the intermediate top wasn't in yet?

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  28. Todd,

    My personal guidelines for buying and selling, generally-speaking, are as follows: buy when the market provides a high-probability entry; sell to protect capital. Note that the decision to sell has absolutely nothing to do with the entry price. Once you are in, your job becomes to protect your account. You ride the cycle up to the point where the odds swing against you, and the exit is done based on market conditions, not your entry price.

    There is certainly a mental/emotional part of this work which depends on your entry price... a trader can follow his rules more easily when sitting on big gains... but ultimately discipline is an emotional game, and learning to ignore the entry price will help keep those emotions under control.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks, Gary!

    Hey, for a "retired" guy you are working pretty hard at this new job you created, eh? We subs definitely appreciate it! Maybe this sitting around answering all these questions is good therapy for the back, but when it's healed up, those rocks will be calling your name.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Just found this posted last night by Harvey Organ, the guy who testified at the CFTC in March.

    'Dear Sirs

    I am now deeply concerned that a default may occur in silver in December. We have witnessed a huge number of options exercised for the physical metal in November. With the exponential gain in the silver price one can just imagine how many will stand in December. Many customers are fleeing the registered vaults..fearful of a default.

    Please act to prevent a cataclysmic event occurring at the silver and gold comex.

    I thank you for your kind attention and I also thank you for inviting me to testify in front of you. I hope that the CFTC heard our message.

    Harvey Organ

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  31. Just shorted 1000 XLE at 62.91 to add to SPY and SMH. Stop is at the high at 63.26, so nice and close. Market looks very vulnerable to me, and i like hedging my PM's.

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  32. for those interested, (SIL)now offers options, although we need to wait for more volume to close the bid/ask spread.

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  33. DG,
    Not that I'm shorting but you will get a larger percentage move out of OIH.

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  34. Doc: agreed generally about entry prices being irrelevant as the market has no memory, but I like to use entry price as a stop regardless of market conditions. Once I buy something and it gets into the black I generally set a mental stop at cost to prevent a position from getting into the red. If I have gone from black to red maybe something has changed that I have missed.

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  35. Well, it looks like an intermediate low is just what we need to wipe out the positive sentiment that is building in the S&P and PMs.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Gary,
    DZZ,ZSL are getting lots of volume. Is that a sign of gold correction?

    ReplyDelete
  37. We do have a four day corollary in effect for stocks. If we get a down day today and tomorrow we will have a 4 day rule possible trend change. The lack of SoS prevents me from selling short though and of course I would never short PM.

    ReplyDelete
  38. GARY,

    What are the top three things that require the most time or are the most trouble for you writing this blog? I'd like to help with some suggestions if possible cause there is no reason this should be too hard on your part.

    Billing?
    Emailing passwords?
    Composing the nightly page?
    Incoming emails?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Everything got lots of volume yesterday. The only way to know is to wait for confirmation. That means a failed daily cycle.

    Right now you are just wasting your time trying to guess whats going to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Agreed on OIH Gary, and I usually do that one, but XLE is showing more overbought than OIH the way I look at. And I always have lots of cash. If I want a bigger percentage move I just do more of the less volatile item. For example I have twice as much SLV as I would have AGQ and with interest rates at less than 1% I don't mind spending more capital as the cash just sits around anyway. Thanks for the thought and point though---appreciated. And there goes XLE...

    ReplyDelete
  41. wrinting the nightly report emailing it and then having to do it all again on the website is #1.

    #2 is trying to respond to email questions and questions on the blog.

    Billing and filing is a distant third unless it happens to be a day I run a special and I get flooded with new subs. I usually try to initiate those on Sunday when I'm not doing anything anyway so that's not a big deal.

    This has gotten to the point where I don't feel like I can take a climbing trip anymore. I certainly can't do it and get out the reports via email. In order for me to take any kind of trip the reports have to be website only.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Gary,

    What are your thoughts concerning diversifying into physical PM at any point during this secular bull run? I'm thinking of increasingly diverting stock profits into metals as we go along. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Hope no one sold their EXK during that pullback. They had great earnings report this morning and were up ( at one point) 17% for the day.

    Slight pullback intraday now...may add to position if a large flag appears here (for long term)...already own a lot from the doublebottom cup/handle breakout in Sept/oct

    ReplyDelete
  44. oh...


    I was envisioning a possible flag pattern over the next couple of days, not intraday...

    ReplyDelete
  45. Booked a few more profits. Down to 65% position on PMs. I'll hold here until a signal comes to add back up to 80% or subtract down to 50%.

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  46. With miners still historically cheap diversifing into physical isn't a big priority for me.

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  47. GARY,

    OK, #1. Your reports are the same text and graphics. Why are they written twice? What are you writing each report with (or how?) and which is slower/faster?

    #2 Do you have a smartphone which would give you easy ability to read and respond to the simple text comments on the blog during the day - *regardless* of location. (Note that having you here during days is nice for us, but by no means required. It is your life. During times like this of extreme action, though, the gesture is appreaciated.)

    #2(part 2) what system do you have to handle incoming emails? Do you just use POP and something like outlook express to receive incoming cox emails? Do you use a webmail interface from cox (which probably is crap)?

    ReplyDelete
  48. Gary.....I was thinking more along the lines of converting to physicals mainly near the end of the run. Do you think there will ever be a place for physicals during the bull market?

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  49. Your report SHOULD involve:

    1) a standard set of stockcharts bookmarks. You review each night, choose those of discussion interest, annotate, then

    2) write text.

    3) insert stockcharts interspersed to the text.

    correct?
    (Still want to know how you are writing reports twice and what you are using - particularly to insert/link the images.)

    ReplyDelete
  50. MISSED QUESTION:

    I'm also inferring a certain tech level from you (reasonably good). Am I off? No insult if so, just need to know.

    Do you know HTML? Would you know how to use a smartphone? Does asking if you use "POP" email throw you? etc.

    Give me some grounding of your level.

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  51. I write the orginal report as an email then I have to copy and paste it into the website.

    No smart phone. I wouldn't use it anyway. When I'm out climbing or working out I'm not going to be responding to questions.

    I'm not a short term trader so to me all these constant freakouts just seem senseless but I understand how most people are severaly allergic to any kind of drawdown and need guidance to stay focused. So I do the best I can but it's already taking up a lot of time and it's only going to get worse as the subscriber base grows.

    I'm sure there will come a time when I simply won't be able to respond to emails any longer.

    ReplyDelete
  52. One more,

    I know how many posts are on this board, but how many emails are you managing each day. Emails can QUICKLY grow to become laborious. In today's society overload of info is easy problem to get into.

    How many emails?
    AND (even more important)
    How many times do emails result in a further back and forth discussion and not just a simple reply?

    ReplyDelete
  53. " DG said...
    Just shorted 1000 XLE at 62.91 to add to SPY and SMH. Stop is at the high at 63.26, so nice and close. Market looks very vulnerable to me, and i like hedging my PM's."

    DG do you ERY & SDS or other methods?

    ReplyDelete
  54. Gary,

    Based on history, how much price correction from the peak do you estimate in gold price at intermediate bottom.

    I understand that I am putting you on a spot but even a rough estimate from you will help.

    Thanks.

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  55. I'm not very tech savvy and I'm a pretty slow typer.

    Right now with the reports on the website only this is about as good as it can get for me. And I can update the site from anywhere.

    That's just not possible with email alerts anymore.

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  56. I think the new POMO schedule comes out around 2 pm EST today.

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  57. BoW -114 on SPY so far today. Big money buying the dip. Looks like this rally in stocks is not done.

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  58. Hey Gary, if you're overloaded, feel free to send some subscribers my way ;-)

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  59. Sandy,
    No clue. Every correction is different.

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  60. Emails per day? Often in the hundreds. Many involving back and forth.

    ReplyDelete
  61. >I'm not a short term trader so to me all these constant freakouts just seem senseless but I understand how most people are severaly allergic to any kind of drawdown and need guidance to stay focused

    You have to know when to say 'no' or stay silent about random questions. Let others on the board chime in and answer as best they can. You don't have to tackle everything. Being nice and having a service means you want to, I understand. But that isn't necessary and you shouldn't be unhappy.

    People will take anything they can get for free (and often don't appreciate it). It's humanity. It is clear to me (and you) when there is a serious question on the board - like when something you said is ambiguous Vs. when somebody asks how a "stop" works, etc. Gotta let them do their own work.

    And even crazier are the people doing things like bitching over $10 or not reading you cause it doesn't come as a PDF. Are you serious?!? Guys have posted stuff like "I'm thinking about subscribing for a month." Really? My gosh, how little money do you have for good information?

    If a book could make you $1mil, I'd be willing to buy it for a few hundred thousand. It seems others wouldn't pay over $9.95. And only if you sent it in PDF. I'd read it if it was printed on toilet paper.

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  62. That BoW number on SPY is a plus 114, not minus.

    ReplyDelete
  63. FWIW, even though Gary's nightly update subscription is probably the best bargain on the planet, I took a while to bite. Why? Because I had already looked at many other paid services, some of which I'd subscribed to, and none seemed to offer the edge I was looking for. So I dragged my feet about subscribing to Gary's service.

    It was reading the comments on this blog (Gary's responses to questions and the occasional sub's glowing recommendation) that convinced to me subscribe.

    I'm guessing that there may be other subs who read the blog and comments for a while first before subscribing.

    So, Gary, your responses here in the comments section serve a dual purpose. They answer the question and they also help bring in new subs.

    At some point you may decide you have enough subs and stop answering emails and questions in the comments section, but until then, your efforts are not wasted.

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  64. Seems Gold has more strengh than Silver in this "correction". Silver is negative, Gold not yet......

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  65. Gary: You have done and are doing a great service for a lot of people. but you're a person too, for gosh sakes. Don't drain yourself dry. Decide what you are happy doing and do just that much. I agree completely with TZ: answer substantive questions that you feel like answering. Perhaps you need to exercise the same level of discipline on the site that you do with your investing! On top of for you, selfishly I'd like to see you run this game for a good while and not burn out over the next year or so.

    ReplyDelete
  66. BoW now upto 182M...at this rate, s&p gonna be really green tomorrow

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  67. Crap, I had a long post Gary to help and just managed to delete it with bad key press.

    Hold those thoughts and I will throw out some ways to address your issues.

    PS: when you say you "write the report as an email"...using what program? Outlook express? A webmail page?

    ReplyDelete
  68. Gary,

    In Tecnical Analysis, is there any "targets" that Gold and Silver can´t broke in this intermediate correction ?

    Thks

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  69. Gary,

    What you are dealing with is a very typical scaling issue. You have grown to certain hard limits of your time/desire and need to reconfigure a bit.

    You are doing a few things clearly which are causing the problems. I'll point them out in a bit. You can prob kill 80% of your probs with a 20% change in a few things (simply).

    ReplyDelete
  70. carlos,

    Well gold shouldn't break below the last intermediate low at $1155.

    I seriously doubt it will be able to move below $1265 and I wouldn't even give good odds for a move below $1300.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Gary-
    Do you have a tech savvy friend who can handle this stuff for you?

    Maybe send him or her the report and let them send it to the subs? Doc and the Aden Sisters just send out an email when a new post or alert is up. (Maybe the amount of information & charts you are attempting to email causes things to shut down?) So a basic email alert to the subs might be easier saying "new report", etc.

    I'm not bothered by checking the site at all, btw...Maybe the folks on the blog can keep everyone informed with a "new members report up" comment on the regular blog.

    ReplyDelete
  72. I will heartily echo the comments from TZ and DG regarding Gary's time and effort. From some of the questions that show up in the comments here, I can only imagine the questions he gets in emails from subscribers. I don't think I'd have the patience he displays.

    Some people should spend some more time reviewing his writings, thinking about what he's saying, and taking responsibility for their own trading/investing moves.

    He lays it out quite clearly (with few exceptions) and it's really quite straightforward and relatively simple. But people continually ignore it and/or make it more complicated than it needs to be.

    Bottom line: I appreciate how much Gary does for the modest fee, and feel that he shouldn't get too bogged down with it. But he has to decide where the limits are, and he's clearly capable of doing that.

    Thanks Gary, you've made a world of difference in my investing/trading.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Gary--
    THANK YOU FOR WHAT YOU DO!! I KNOW I APPRECIATE IT!

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  74. Gary-

    You should add a frequently asked questions page on the member's site. Just let everyone know form now on you can't respond to every question. Maybe set up an automatic reply email with "Due to the volume of questions I've been getting, I regret I will no longer be able to answer each question personally. Please visit the members site and view the "frequent asked questions" link. Thank you!"

    ReplyDelete
  75. GARY,

    OK, thanks.
    I mostly have enough to go on. Your problems solved soon. Give me time to write response.

    QUESTION: you MAKE and SEND the email with outlook, but you also RECEIVE and MANAGE the incoming emails with outlook too, right? No webmail interfaces, correct?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Weird! If the Dow can close down just a little (say 15 or less) I will get a buy signal! The buys are damn good so I'd heed them. Especially if we get that big BoW number. Man am I being mentally whipsawed! Oh well---you do what the market tells you to do. the buy is good far an immediate 1% move. I will post near the close if I get it.

    ReplyDelete
  77. GARY,

    Your email address is 'in the clear' on your home page. This is usually a bad practice since web harvesting programs will pick it up automatically and spam you.

    If you just have Outlook with a simple "POP" account (which is what you are describing so far; dont' worry about the lingo), then you must be getting a lot of spam.

    True?
    How is this being handled?
    Are you just picking them out by sight alone and deleting?

    (Again..easy ways to handle all this. Just need a bit more info)

    ReplyDelete
  78. True and I get some spam. Not that much really and I just mark it as junk and it usually gets directed to the junk file after that. Elliot wave quickly found it's way int the junk file :)

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  79. DG, thanks for your signal alert. Keep us posted!

    The BoW numbers look like we have more upside in store. EW also wants another wave up by most counts, so as long as the BoW number continues to be high, going long today looks like a low risk trade.

    ReplyDelete
  80. GARY,

    Your blog is called "smart money tracker". Is that a key name for you or is it just a 'good enough' name you picked out to run with?

    How attached or strong was the "Smart money tracker" creation?

    ReplyDelete
  81. I won't be changing the name after 4 years if that's what you are asking.

    ReplyDelete
  82. How come you have never used your smartmoneytrackerpremium.net domain to set up an email instead of using cox? Doing that would allow a permanent email (should you move or leave cox) and also allow redirection to any email service you want at any time.

    Do you not know the process to do this or just didn't want to?

    ReplyDelete
  83. Shoot, go on a hike and stop answering TZ's questions!

    Maybe you don't need to do nightly reports if nothing is happening? Perhaps a 2-3 times per week deal and an extended weekend report.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Looks like the curveball just got smacked into the left field seats.

    Gary, failed 'breakout' on USD?

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  85. this is nothing but another whipsaw similar to the 10am shakeout before the fed meeting perpetrated by a bunch of thieves doing their random raids. It managed to shake me out of a monster position for the second time but it will not stop me from trying again. In typical fashion, tomorrow we will probably be at $1440

    ReplyDelete
  86. Gary,

    A very easy option for sending bulk emails is through service like constantcontact.com or netatlantic. These sites charge app. 20-30 $ per month for sending bulk emails out on daily basis and you can create an email database in seconds (just import your existing database). Very easy to manage on everyday basis.

    We have been using these services for many years for our email campaigns. Work like a charm.

    ReplyDelete
  87. I'm encouraged by the recent action in the miners. The volume has been extraordinary (past 2 weeks) and the $HUI has clearly decoupled from the equity index and even to SOME extent the underlying bullion price. I've seen days where bullion was down but the HUI was up, this morning was an example.

    There could be a number of theories, but I would suggest, now that HUI has broken out, it's being recognized as clearly undervalued in relation to the metal. It begs the question whether reducing any core miner positions in preparation of a coming intermediate dip is warranted. I understand reducing leverage.

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  88. JAY,

    >Shoot, go on a hike and stop answering TZ's questions!

    I'm trying to help and my questions are pretty much done. Thanks for the understanding and patience.

    If Gary said "screw it, it's not worth it" and walked away I think we'd all regret not trying to help improve things. He can probably deliver almost the entire service he has in all ways with just some small changes. But without knowing the situation specifics it is hard for those of us with some tech background to help out. The questions were necessary.

    He can take whatever advice I give or not, but I'm happy to put in a bit of time and suggest some improvements.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Right now with the current system as is, everything works perfect. The only clich would be if Cox prevented me from sending out the password on Sunday.

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  90. JAY,

    Reactionary I guess. Too much coffee. Sorry.

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  91. the BoW on SPY just vanished...hmmm...maybe it will come back

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  92. SPY in no longer showing up on the BoW list. Amazing that -180 million can completely disappear in an hour or two!

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  93. SPY is now positive and therefore will not show up on the BOW list. At least as far as I understand the list??

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  94. New POMO schedule, almost everyday thru Dec. 9. Keep those QE dollars coming!

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  95. Possible intermediate cycle price target on dollar as expressed in the /DX if we can get there. Nice longer term trend line resistance.

    DX

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  96. SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Silver surged to a record volume on Wednesday, as 201,216 futures contracts changed hands, the CME Group said in a press release. That handily beat the previous record of 127,890 contracts set Dec. 30, 1976. Silver tanked more than 7% on Wednesday after the CME, which owns Comex, raised margin requirements for silver futures. The December contract settled at $26.87 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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  97. C'mon guys...Gary has explained this 100 times. Think of what "buying on weakness" means. You can't have "buying on weakness" unless there is weakness! If the SPY is up on the day the weakness is gone so it "disappears."

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  98. TZ,

    I have been making the same suggestions (mostly) to Gary via private email.

    He prefers to stick with an Outlook platform so the best solution is to set up his own domain that allows bulk email. I have offered to provide step-by-step instructions.

    An important thing is that the hosting provider needs to provide a custom port number (not 25) for POP mail. (I suppose that IMAP would not be a problem). Cox and other ISPs block port 25 in order to try to force you to use their outgoing mail server.

    The simple matter of sending a weekly password is going to become a nightmare if the subscribers increase and Cox could tighten their anti-spam policies with a drop of a dime. Verizon shuts you down for 24 hours for a "violation".

    ReplyDelete
  99. okay, DG, then I am not interpreting the BoW and SoS lists correctly. I originally thought it meant what you're implying it means. But yesterday we some comments about it and now I understand it to mean that BoW means buying on a downtick, NOT down for the day. So I'm confused, which is it, buying on a downtick or buying when the stock/etf is down for the day??

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  100. It's calculated by whether the bid or ask is being hit. But the signals ony occur when the market is down for BoW and vice versa for SoS.

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  101. looked at the SoS and BoW lists again, and you're right, DG, the only stocks that are appearing on SoS are stocks that are up on the DAY. Vice versa BoW.

    So I'm back to square one on how useful this data really is. Big money could still be piling into SPY, but it's not going to show up on EITHER list because it's up on the DAY, even though big money is buying it on downticks.

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  102. Here's how you use it. Go back and look at every intermediate top. Then go through the data on up days. You will find that at everyone of them there was SoS days prior to the top.

    You will also notice it isn't a perfect timing tool, but it is an excellent warning device.

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  103. Gary,

    How come you use cycle analysis on the Dollar Index? I ask this because cycles are a reflection of investors/traders sentiments, but the Dollar Index is not a heavily traded market. If you take the Euro/Dollar FX (which is traded on CME and Forex) it is infinitely more liquid than the Dollar Index. Maybe, what I´m trying to say, is that the Dollar Index moves because of investors/traders who buy and sell EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD... and not the other way around. Therefore, shouldn´t you use cycles to analyse the sentiment of these markets instead of analysing the Dollar Index?

    Not sure if I made myself clear, but thanks anyway

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  104. Could end up being an exhaustion candle for the dollar today. Bottom line is that we still need to watch the marks that Gary has pointed out. Trying to get ahead of them, anticipating the move, can just end up leaving you whipsawed.

    Of course you may get lucky, or have exceptional market instincts, but most will just act emotionally and get torn to pieces. Been there, done that myself.

    Gold is approaching it's all time high again. It might just be that the silver trade got too extended (which it certainly was), with way too many people leaning on one side of the boat. And it capsized.

    How many people do you suppose were selling gold and loading up on silver, chasing the outperformance of the last couple of months? I think we saw some evidence of that here.

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  105. tried to buy some physical silver from scotiamocatta (bullion bank in canada) today...they are physically out of 10 oz and 100 oz silver bars!

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  106. King World News Source - "Asian Buyers Have Silver Shorts Checkmated"
    its only a matter of time before these shorts have to run for higher cover.

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  107. Pima: The other thing is that it is only useful for SPY. You may as well stop driving yourself crazy looking at the other stocks. the reason is that SPY is used in order to hedge against a general market decline; nothing else is. It's a proxy for the whole market. Gary has studies other stocks and found nothing useful so don ;t get distracted by other stocks. If SPY is there fine. Otherwise just close the page.
    And Gary---for the purpose of letting you off the hook to go climbing, let others answer stuff like this---unless we blow the answer. :)

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  108. Dont know if this is widespread, but got off the phone with CIBC to buy some physical silver and they said not a problem giving me a certificate. When I asked to take delivery, they said they can't gurantee getting any bars. Guess Canadians having been loading up. Guess I'm going to suck it up and pay the premium for silver maples. :(

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  109. Damn, this buy signal is gonna be close. If we are down 12 or less on the Dow assume we get it. It's 80% accurate for the past 30 years and means an immediate (within five days) up move. I will cover all my shorts and buy a lot of SPY if we get it. And metals? Wes---haven't heard from you in a while. You still out there?

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  110. It looks like the "Guy's Adummy" momo crowd are chasing SLW.

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  111. @DG

    what if the DOW is up? does your signal still apply?

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  112. Nope, no signal. Kind of like BoW, you need to be down to register. It is designed to get good entry points (a new recent low for buys or new recent high for sells) so an up day can't be a low, thus no buy signal. I play with very tight stops so entry points are crucial for me. Seems to me "close but no cigar" works better than random but I have never studied it, so hesitate to make a claim.

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  113. even if these stocks ( EXK , HL , ETC) go sideways like this , its just forming a huge flag for the next move up :)

    can you say Dollar 74
    Gold 1600

    the way we used to

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  114. N1tro, have you tried APMEX? i see 100oz silver bars there in stock. I just bought some gold z's yesterday.

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  115. What Silver and Gold Folks ? What do you think happen today?

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  116. Damn! I really wanted that signal. Each one is worth some thousands$ to me. Also nice to know what the heck to expect at least for a few days. Oh well.

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  117. I'm in Canada so there is a surcharge. And they also ship via UPS so huge brokerage fees. Buying with the banks, they give you bars with their stamp on it and it would be easy to cash out when needed. Hopefully silver will go sideways for 2 weeks so I can buy some more.

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  118. hey Gary,

    how often do you update the COT reports?

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  119. just wondering how many canadians are on here and which brokerage or trading platforms do you use?

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  120. Good stuff from a fundamental understanding of QE. Be a good thing to truly grasp what he is saying:

    http://pragcap.com/mechanics-qe-transaction

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  121. Good stuff from a fundamental understanding of QE. Be a good thing to truly grasp what he is saying:

    http://pragcap.com/mechanics-qe-transaction

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  122. Raz-
    I agree, something big is about to break on silver. Global pressures all coming to a head, they are throwing the kitchen sink at this thing. Intermediate cycle or not, I don't think now is the time to be off the silver bullet. Also, let's not forget the summer intermediate bottom was extremely mild so even if we hit one sideways correction may be the game plan.

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  123. Gary, can we have your opinion about last Jayhawk91 comment ?

    Thks

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  124. What's up with the divergence between silver, SIL and even AGQ?

    Hopefully, a positive sign.

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  125. tdwaterhouse for ETFs, forex.com for currency and paper gold & silver

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  126. Silver miners got destroyed yesterday and todays snap back rally was a response to that. Also EXK and Slw had monster days. Yesterday SLV was rocking and SIL was just sitting there. Who knows??!!

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  127. DG, I have to study the SoS, BoW thing a little more. I'm now wondering whether you'd do just as well to look at volume alone, as in climactic volume.

    I know Gary has said the other stocks/etf's are not useful, but was it just a coincidence that GLD was at the top of the SoS list at its recent high and then dropped hard? I'd like to go back and look at daily and IT tops in gold and see if GLD shows up on the SoS list for two or three days leading into the top.

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  128. Lightened up today given the $ strength and will remain so until the $ rolls over again. I wasn't in since July so I don't have the cushion Gary has or I'd wait for further confirmation.

    Implied volatility for metals is very high right now, especially for silver. Might be worthwhile to sell some SLV calls if we have a few weeks of sideways or further selling to take advantage of the premiums and generate cash going into a possible intermediate low.

    Then again maybe not with crazy Bernanke working overtime at the presses...(no offense Shalom)

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  129. I lightened up today and yesterday as well as I didn't get in during the July lows either. However, lightening up just means reducing position sizes to 25-50% from 100-150%.

    HZU, which is the Canadian equiv of AGQ is a screamer and I don't like holding it during sideways action (chop).

    I use TD and BMO and I prefer BMO. Waiting for thinkorswim to re-open then I will move all accounts there.

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  130. Demark voodoo told me that we would see a dollar rally. Expect another 2-4 weeks upside, then resume the dollar "collapse" - 72.5 here we come! I also saw yesterday that Gold records a YEARLY 13-sell signal this year, which would imply 12 years of bad luck. Silver on the other hand, is about to reach a YEARLY sell setup, which would imply 1-4 years of bad luck. Silver is a much better thing to be bullish on than gold as Gary has detailed here. BTW, a YEARLY sell signal recorded in 1999 for the S&P (12 years of bad luck) and we are emerging from that next year - I would say that has been pretty accurate. Who knows - just throwing out a different look at things.

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  131. I think you can throw out all your indicators right now. The dollar is waiting on the G-20 meeting. That will decide whether the rally continues or the collapse resumes.

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  132. Gary--
    RE: G20
    obviously anything can happen--- but wouldn't you put greater odds on nothing really changing and actual actions will not follow the Lip Service provided (like the U.S. actually wanting a strong dollar)and dollar will continue falling as the Federal Reserve wants?

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  133. Gary: I agree that the dollar is clearly king of the hill and that other things will follow its tune. However I wouldn't quite throw everything else out. It's funny how the various markets are usually synched together. "Coincidences" happen where something external happens just at the right time to have some reliable indicator or other proven right. I believe, for a number of reasons, stocks are due to fall. So maybe the dollar rallies to cause that. Sometimes it's almost hard to tell what's the cause and what's the effect. I have been shorting for a few days based on how overdone we are to the upside and, what do you know, CSCO announces lousy earning and tanks overnight. I'm hoping for a "both sides" day tomorrow: up PM's and down stocks.

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  134. DG,
    There is no doubt that the dollar controls stocks but stocks also influence the dollar.

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  135. By the way everyone.
    I now receive a text to my cell from twitter telling me Gary has posted the new daily update.
    this will work very well for me!!
    Just wanted to let everyone know it worked and is convenient for me!

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  136. Guys, the FED will start buying as part of QE2 this coming Friday and will buy for 18 straight days for a total of $110B.

    G20 meetings have a history of producing nothing.

    Just saying....

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  137. Yes, I'm just saying that while some overbought-type indicators are not going to work as well in a roaring bull (or during a collapsing dollar) "throwing everything else out" is a little extreme because everything tends to dovetail together.

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  138. One possible thing to consider for Stocks: Rise out of August bottom, midpoint consolidation over past 2-3 weeks and a similar rise above today's level, possibly till year end? I know stocks are way over done, but then again, so are Gold and Silver. Not sure how the metals will react, but given the POMO days lined up, looks like we may continue higher in the SPX.

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  139. Yeah this POMO thing is annoying. I'm really not big on "manipulation" nonsense, but a few trillion here and a few trillion there really can influence things. Makes me careful not to hang on to shorts too long unless I really get some room. Good patient entries and tight stops for me!

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  140. Has anyone else had problems getting Gary's Twitter notice via email forwarding? I've checked my spam file along with whitelisting twitter in my server too. Also see others in Twitter having the same problems as well.

    ReplyDelete
  141. i am not getting the tweets forwarded either, i think facebook would be better

    ReplyDelete
  142. I've had no problems at all with getting the tweet forwarded to my email via Tweetymail.

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  143. I too have not received any email notifications of tweets.

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  144. Consider: What are the odds we get another sell-off as nasty as Tuesday in the coming days in a market as fundamentally strong as the PMs?

    I have to think slim. Tuesday was so violent, so dramatic, I think it terrified a heckuva lot of weak hands. The volume was just out of this world. When we are emotional, in the aftermath of a horror show like Tuesday afternoon, our fear tells us "Well, there must be another one comin' right around the corner."

    But what are the odds of that? For example: Gary is always saying, the odds of another October '08 style market crash happening in the near future are next to nil simply because a century of history shows us that bona fide crashes are so rare.

    Which brings me to this: I'm not a chartist by any stretch, but just from eyeballing the gold chart Gary included in tonight's report, here's a thought: what if gold drifts slowly downward for 4-5 more days? That would form...a bull flag.

    A bull flag that hopefully bottoms in the middle of next week, followed by a spike upward (which would naturally bring silver up with it). I'd love to see higher prices until at least the first week of December.

    Just basing this on a hunch (and wishful thinking) so take with several giant grains of salt. (I don't know what I'm talking about.) If we get another violent downdraft on MASSIVE volume akin to what we saw Tuesday afternoon, well, that pretty much nukes this idea.

    p.s. -- All my money is in AGQ, which I have sold none of in spite of the last 48 hours.

    p.p.s. -- These G-20 meetings seem to me to be meaningless Kabuki shows. It's difficult to imagine Ben going in there and saying something surprising, like telling the world "Yeah, maybe I'm being too aggressive with QE2..." Why would he say something that could depress his precious S&P 500?

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  145. No problem getting the texts from twitter both yesterday and today. Be sure to set it up in your twitter account to have Gary's tweets sent to your phone (you have to send a verification text to verify the cell #).

    I don't use Tweetymail.

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  146. Gold action was much stronger compared to Silver today. Silver is having a hard time staying above 27.30. Gold on the other hand rallied strongly making higher highs, while silver was stuck below that 27.30 level.

    CSCO's miss (10% of revenue) has stocks down. Given how over stretched we are, this should lead to a correction. But we have Ben and his POMO billions ready to be pumped in next week.

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  147. DG,

    I'm wasting time perfecting the 200 share QLD trade for lunch money while waiting for whatever you guys say is going to be the next big happening.

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  148. Today intra-day dollar reversed at 78.34. Why didnt they go up to 78.36. Tomorrow (Thursday) by 9:30am (US cash open) dollar will be over 78.36. Watch the drama unfold as night progresses.

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  149. For those who pay attention to embedded status, silver is close to embedding again. It will take another day or two to be sure it embeds but then the theory says that it will move from overbought to locking in the trend which in this case is higher. It was, fwiw, embedded during most of the move these past couple of months. As with all tools not perfect but also not usual to see something embed so it's worth watching imo.

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  150. Steven,

    What stochastic settings are you using on your silver chart to give you its embedded status?

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  151. I have reviewed stuff and now believe there is an excellent chance the metals resume surging up higher in the next 2-4 days. This is obviously not guaranteed.

    I have planned out a trade to re-enter on certain parameters.
    Again, this will be with silver and gold futures, leveraged, and with very tight stops.

    There is no guarantee my entry will be during US market hours since gold/silver trade continuous.

    Just an FYI on my opinion right now (as of the last few hours upon reflection.)

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  152. TZ,
    Can you describe a little more what will be your enter plan in Silver and Gold ?
    Thks

    ReplyDelete
  153. MLMT

    For the record, the dollar actually got up to 78.17, not 78.34. We'll see if your prediction comes true or not. So far, as of this writing, it's still in question, though I realize that the action can get much more interesting as we approach U.S. market opening.

    We're really in limbo here and could still break either way. Trying to anticipate a trend change is always perilous. Better to use the guidelines that Gary has laid out, IMO.

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  154. USD rally is pretty subdued in most currencies. (Look at CAD, AUD, CHF) It is a result of euro weakness like in the summer. If so last time gold outperformed. It wasn't that long ago, ppl haven't forgot already.Any transition from gold to USD may be backstopped and reversed by fears of the euro going down again.

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  155. MLMT

    I see now that you were referring to the dollar futures vs. the actual dollar index. Here's a good source for the dollar index price in real time: Dollar Index

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  156. Catbird,

    The slow stoch. You can chart it yourself or just check out Ira Epstein's daily charts which he posts every day around 3:00CST. You can go directly to his site
    http://iraepstein.linngroup.com/videos/midday-metals-report.html

    or you can see his videos (and archives of old ones on YouTube.

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  157. Gary,

    Can you see the situation in which the PMs go higher in conjunction with a rising dollar (as they have been doing)? There is some thought that the broader stock market rising has actually made it harder for PMs to outperform since there is so much action elsewhere. I know the PMs have had much history in rising with a falling stock market and also with a rising dollar although I'm not sure if both happened at the same time. In fact could it be that IF this happens it puts the spotlight on the PMs even more? I suppose it depends partly on why the dollar is rising. It seems to be due to some Euro concerns. I also have my doubts that the G20 meeting with resolve anything and this just could renew the dollar downtrend but who knows. Just a thought.

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  158. It's pretty simple. If gold makes a higher high the daily cycle is still intact.

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  159. Gary: $$$ may be putting in a 1-2-3 reversal for the curveball to still play out?

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  160. Gary or anyone

    This isnt a cycles question, but I was just curious...

    are any markets affected by Veterans day (closed)?? and if so, will that in any way affect other markets trade today ( more or less volatility or liquidity?)

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  161. we have to wait for the G20 puppet show to finish before we can go higher. I was watching the press conference last night and these guys cant even come to agreement on beef import but people expect them to agree on currency movements. This puppy is far from over. Higher prices to come

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  162. Gary: what if the $ rallies above 78.36 AND gold rallies above $1424.40? If the euro craters both are distinctly possible. I guess you sit tight because the gold daily cycle is still intact? Might you sell into strength if the $ has clearly made an intermediate low by crossing 78.36?

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  163. For me to sell I would have to be convinced that gold was or is going to enter an intermeidate decline. The only sure fire method to recognize that would be for a daily cycle low to be violated.

    So that would be a tough one.

    If gold ignored the dollar rally then I would probably just put a stop below the next cycle low and let my positions ride.

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  164. Doc said...

    "Hey Gary, if you're overloaded, feel free to send some subscribers my way ;-)"

    Hey Doc,

    Maybe you need to getting a marketing partner, seems to be helping Gary's sub base grow. I have a suggestion for you. Periodically come on to Gary's blog during heavy traffic times at tops or bottoms, maybe with a guest blog or a link to your blog (like that superb Nov. 9 blog post), with the following enticment.

    "One day only, SMT sub's get a $50 discount on a 1 year subscription. Just send this week's password in an email for the discount".

    I suspect you could easily get Gary's approval if you toss him a few burrito's, or better yet, let him win a few burrito bets. :)

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  165. I'll do almost anything for a chicken burrito :)

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  166. Gary's subscriber base is growing because he has been hot (I have told a few friends about him myself). Doc, all you have to do is make a whole bunch of great calls in a row and you're base will grow like weeds. Good luck! Then you get to blow a few calls and watch it shrink. Frankly, I'm glad I don't do this for a living any more!

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  167. You just keep up with the great work, and we'll be happy to keep you knee-deep in chicken burritos. :)

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  168. Anyone ever heard of Jesse Livermores "shakeout plus 3' ??

    He says on a double bottom pattern , Like the dollar now , the second low is the shakeout, then add (10%) to that low. If the price gets there , there is real interest on that 10% move and it creates a buy point..


    I think its called shakeout plus 3...because he shows it in a $30.00 stock , the plus 3 was $3 off the 430.00 low.....or.....10%

    that would make Garys call correct I believe, if I have that straight.

    correct me if you have heard of that Livermore approach and I used it wrong.

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  169. typo...

    $3.oo off the $30.00 low

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  170. Nice! Stocks smacked and PM's up. I am holding my stock shorts for now---a little nervously, admittedly, because of this damn POMO stuff, but I am "strong hands" now unless we get a little panic for me to cover into. Go euro!

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  171. Dollar doesn't seem to have any steam to it and appears to be a Euro trade that about the dollar. It to will pass and the dollar will be left out to dry. We may get our equity sell off after all, without much dollar assistance which could satisfy all 3? (Dollar & gold within cycle and equities forming a low)

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  172. we need this EUR to bottom already. Its been goign down for 500 pips so far

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  173. I'm not concerned about the USD in the least. If it starts to puke again, the metals will rise.

    It the USD goes higher, metals will either pullback (oppty to add), hang steady (no problem with some sideways action), or possibly even go higher along with the USD as a flight to safety.

    All good outcomes, because everything is OK.

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  174. Razvan: I hope I am not crossing the line here, and you may already be a much better trader than I am, but it really seems to me that you need to keep your emotions in check. Recently over-leveraged, now worrying about a few pips in the euro. Make sure you're not just gambling for the thrill. This is not an easy game and it is designed to get you emotional so you'll do the wrong thing. Success is unlikely unless you can watch what is happening at least somewhat dispassionately (at least when the market is open). If what i have said is helpful, great. If not, just ignore me.

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  175. 500 pips is not something small...thats 5 cents out. 1 mini lot on the forex means $500 down...you can do the math for what his unrealized losses are using leverage

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  176. i am not trading currencies guys.Currently 100% in commodities. I am watching it for its correlation to the DXY. When the fall reaches the end then we can look for higher metal prices.

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  177. Good morning Gary,
    Got me glued to the monitor watching the US dollar index since we no longer get intraday alerts via email. Also, this is a first to find and post on your blog. I'm happy that your subscribers have increased, but sharing you stinks with these growing pains. : ) MLF

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  178. Good morning to you to Fergie.

    It's about time. I was feeling kind of lonely since you post over at Slope but never here.

    You're forgiven now :)

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  179. BTW after spending several hours pondering this mess I think I may have figured out what's going on. It'll be in tonight's report...

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  180. i cant help it, i am just an emotional guy :)

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  181. Well you fixed that by forcing me to pay attention and get off autopilot. Next time I see you, I'll make you try sushi just to see how you like that. : ) Slope isn't a warm and fuzzy place for the precious metal crowd so I've been an infrequent visitor. Blogging from an iPhone isn't easy you now.

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  182. I'm sure you are vacationing in Napa vally or shopping in the Big Apple or Paris so I don't feel real bad for you ;)

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  183. Yeah sure Gary, hang it out there, the boys will hunt you down before the evening report!

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  184. Guilty as charged. Just some of the perks of being a longtime precious metal nut case as Tim would say. Wish I could squeeze in your Hawaii boondoogle!

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  185. Yeah that's too bad. I think we are going to have a lot of fun.

    And you know I'm going to be rubbing it in that week as we sit on the beach while the rest of you are watching the snow come down.

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  186. Gary,
    do you have crystal ball for SPX? up or down or sideway for next 2 weeks?

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  187. The POMO schedule shows 105 billion flooding the markets through December 9. I guess Benny wants us consumers to shop till we drop. This has to help PM. FWIW.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pomo-schedule-announced-105-billion-monetizations-through-december-9

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  188. 'Mary' got Gary's attention! Whoo hoo!

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  189. Does anyone have thoughts on what will happen when the POMO put out $8 billion tomorrow?

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  190. POMO 11/29...2 scheduled for total of 10.5 Billion.

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  191. May your Mahi Mahi be blackened beyond recognition for being so cruel as to mock the non-attendees. Yes, I can't wait to read those reports from Hawaii. I'm sure it'll read more like Travel & Leisure than Smart Money.

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  192. Power Corrupts, we're just killing time watching dollar index bump into 78.30s.

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