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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

CONTRARY INVESTOR INTERVIEW

http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/gary-savage-radio/

526 comments:

  1. Hi Gary,

    Maybe you can't answer this on this message board, but in your nightly report.

    I see that people are way too happy and cocky on this board

    Do you think that the USD just threw us a curve ball by moving back over the 77 pivot?

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  2. Sorry folks I've been out all day and I just don't have time tonight to read through the 300+ posts and answer questions tonight.

    Ask them again if it's important on this thread and I'll try to get around to it later.

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  3. Why not just trade the metals instead of of looking to the dollar for direction? It's not like anybody knows with certainty where the USD is going any more than metals, and more importantly, any prediction also requires that the typical inverse relationship between the two will continue each step of the way (it hasn't for some time, even if it will again).

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  4. Predicting the USD direction gives no edge even if it makes one feel comfortable.

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  5. Nike Boy,
    if you were riding silver from 27 with leverage you'd be happy and cocky too! :P

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  6. Razvan,

    what makes you think I wasn't? :)

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  7. @ALL of you who post real time / near real time (esp EricH & Arun, who seem to click the "Publish your comment" with one hand and "buy/sell" button with the other hand at the same microsecond)

    In again at 1434.. yeah yeah... I didnt do real time.. Ok.. for your guy's book-keeping sake, it is 1431 (which is where we are right now).

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  8. MLMT, I guess you are really just a godsend for all the futures traders on the right side, since that market is a zero sum game. Seems you just have an unlimited amount of money to lose........

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  9. Great interview Gary. Glad you are starting to get some media exposure. That bothered me previously, as I wanted to keep you wrapped up! Clearly that won't be possible. Great luck as it expands.

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  10. I would be WAY more concerned when people OUTSIDE become happy and cocky with PM.

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  11. MLMT.. either post real-time about ur trades or quit boasting about a small loss. Based on below, how can you not be a cheat?

    1. You went short on 2/18 EOD. based on your post Based on that, your 75% position basis would be 1390 and not more. 1390.6 was the max in the last 2-3 hrs of that trading day.

    2. Magically your position basis became 1406 as you averaged up. No posts about averaging up but you can taunt like "Its coming... 1388.. its coming" How convenient!! This like 16 pts up in average when you got only 25% position left. Geez!!

    3. When GC's trading at 1420+, you covered at 1410 for a 4 point loss.

    (2) & (3) has no real time posts. I don't have a problem if you took a short trade and covered. But it insults if you want me to accept it was just a 4 point loss.

    BTW, no answer on the silver puts.

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  12. MLMT: Sounds like revenge trade for me.

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  13. Nike Boy
    maybe i am wrong but i have been on this blog long enough to know that people who make comments like that are either out of the market or under invested.

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  14. It's not just the small loss that MLMT says he took, but the big gains he could have had (if long) but missed.

    As far as getting out yesterday, but telling everybody today to save face, well he'd like us to believe he doesn't peek in here enough to comment when he exited.

    More upside to come, even if mlmt is right for a day or two.

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  15. SB,

    I was out this afternoon so missed your question re the silver channel.

    I had a steeper channel for silver until the big one day drop last week. I've reset the channel lines based on that low and the high that preceded it (and include the low of late January, of course), and I end up with an upper channel line around 36.50 by midday tomorrow. Lower channel line tomorrow morning is at 32.90.

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  16. mlmt makes confident entries around here, but waits to see what happens for a day or two before sharing his exit points.

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  17. Another interesting thing about silver channels: The big rising channel that begins at the October, 2008 low--silver busted out of the top of that channel on 2/21 and 2/22, dropped back inside it for a few days and busted out again today. We'll see whether it stays out for a while. Silver's rise since the late January low of this year is much steeper than the daily channel going back to the October, 2008. If PM's are moving into a blowoff top, we would except the channel to get steep and stay steep.

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  18. Arun,

    Don't forget he averaged up into a total of 3/4 of "a position". :)

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  19. I am a new subscriber and am very impressed with the knowledge of most of you on this blog(TG, Shalom,Jayhawk, to name a few). High marks for Gary! I am so lucky to find this.

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  20. MLMT,

    You may get lucky and catch gold riding down into its daily cycle low.

    Where are your stops on your gold short? And what is your target?

    Are you short silver as well? If so, at what price.

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  21. Pima Sheez. Your going to scare trader lady away
    Trader lady. We are not short

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  22. "mlmt makes confident entries around here, but waits to see what happens for a day or two before sharing his exit points."

    Exactly.

    I entered a number of April GC at 1330 a few weeks back. <--what value does such a post provide?

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  23. Pima and SB,

    I am much more focused on the channel of the weekly silver chart going back to the start of this bull run in 2000 ish. We dropped out of that channel in August of 2008. Even though prices slowly rose starting in November of 2008, we didn't re-enter the channel until Nov of 2010. We back tested that re-entry at 26.38 in January and have not looked back. Gary's target matches the top of this channel quite nicely.

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  24. I sure am not listening to MLMT!
    No worry

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  25. Welcome aboard Tradelady, you won't be disappointed.

    Cheers

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  26. Thanks Brian and Jeff. Already making $$$ with all of you and not short.

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  27. Razvan,

    I've been pretty much following Gary's moves right from the go...just haven't seen the board this jumpy...guess this is a good thing :)

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  28. Dear Gary & Top Guns, is anybody gonna buy options with some of the "market's money" (profits) at the daily cycle low?

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  29. I will go over that strategy if the opportunity arises.

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  30. If all else fails, just grab a hand full of wires and pull. Maybe you get lucky!

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  31. Nice rising channel on GC. If a pullback happens to 1415ish, must be bought with a 1410 stop. Low-risk setup.

    gc-channel-4h

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  32. Gary,
    any chance this c wave gets stretched b/c QE?

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  33. MLMT lost all credibility way back when he posted as mylifemytrade and insinuated he was a different person.I knew he was full of shit as it takes someone with even an iq of 20 about 2 nanoseconds to see the correlation between the 2 handles.I sure wish this blog had an ignore button.

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  34. Hi Gary,

    I just recently subscribed, and I do like the nightly reports and also how you manage the blog and answer questions; so I will extend my subscription and hope there will be another special some time soon.
    The radio interview was excellent, too.
    As you know I enjoy the occasional argument, but I am also getting a clearer picture of your cycle analysis and how it applies to PMs and stocks, and I like it!
    Thanks, man!

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  35. Excellent interview, Gary. Congratulations on the well-deserved exposure.

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  36. Gary will have young bikini-clad groupies before long at the rate he's going. I can't wait til he has an SMT get-together in Miami Beach! :)

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  37. Paul,
    It's already the longest C-wave of the bull. I'd say it's already stretched.

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  38. @vuvvy I clarified before that I ended up using two handles because one email address was blocked from work. I am sure someone like you who hopefully has an IQ of lot more than 20 can understand what this means.

    If I had to use a fake handle, do you think I will make them so obvious as MLMT and mylifemytrade... c'mon.. even if I had IQ of 20, I would know better than that...

    I don't know why I am fighting a pig again..

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  39. Stopped Break-even - posted in real-time for all of you (none of you, barely any of you who post anything in real time)

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  40. You're a real dumbazz,MLMT. You know exactly what you posted. You came on as the second handle and stated"didn't that MLMT guy call for a correction" or something to that effect.I'm done wasting my time with you.

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  41. Gary, Excellent interview and I do hope you explore the agriculture
    bull.

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  42. @vuvvy I refuse to stoop down to your level.

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  43. Gary,
    What are your expectations for SLW earnings?

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  44. No idea. It's a bull market though and no matter what SLW reports tomorrow the stock will continue to rise with the price of silver.

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  45. GPL just showed up on the CNBC ticker! First time I've seen that!

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  46. mlmt claims he doesn't want to "fight a pig", yet comes to a site where he's clearly the only one going against the grain (and losing) with total certainty.

    Tell us, what does "3/4 of a position" mean exactly, and if you can't take a full size trade, why would anybody have confidence in your call for lower metals. Why even bring it up, especially to others who clearly are not invested in that direction, other than to ruffle the feathers?

    Most here don't post in real-time because we're not guessing the next 1 day direction, but rest easy mlmt, many of us are up several hundred percent the last couple years. :)

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  47. Can we please stop the MLMT pile on? I don't see any point in arguing over his entries or exits. Taking the time to look at all of his previous posts and build an argument against him is rediculous. What a tremendous waste of time. It is not bringing any value to this board. Those of you focused on providing insight, identifying great stocks on breakouts, and teaching us from past failures, thank you...

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  48. That is an attempt to ruffle feathers around here, with about as much success there as in your trading.

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  49. Arguing with ignorant and anonymous posters like MLMT reveals more about yourself than it does MLMT.

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  50. Good interview with Warren Buffett this morning on CNBC.

    Buffett said something interesting: What do you rather own - all the gold in the world, which would be a 67 feet cube or one third of all the companies listed in the U.S. stock market? These 2 things have approximately the same value nowadays.

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  51. OhioRob,

    You might feel that calling out mlmt doesn't bring any value, but don't speak for everybody. I'm quite sure that some might take mlmt's misplaced confidence seriously and make the mistake of exiting early, leaving lots of money on the table. It really depends on how frequently somebody pops in here to read comments and learn from others.

    A new reader might take him seriously.

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  52. 'We cover the asses of the masses...' (Buffett commenting of Fruit of the Loom) It was a good interview, it's appearant he's not very interested in owning gold. His comment about wanting to own all the farm land in the US rather than all the gold in the world was interesting.

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  53. David,
    I saw that too. I would point out that in a secular bear market the value of those S&P companies will fall to about 3-400 billion while the value of that cube will go to about 20 trillion.

    Until that cycle runs it's course one is much better owning the cube :)

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  54. If you ask the same question to a Chinese, the answer may be very different. The Chinese would rather have the gold. One of the fundermentals the suports the current PM bull trend is the potential demand from the fast growing middle class in China.

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  55. Gary,

    I agree with you. But still, it gives you some perspective about how we are already reaching some irrational valuations in gold. I do agree it will go on further, but if you ask that question about the gold cube and the stock market, no sane human being would choose the gold cube. Buffett is a genius at coming up with ways to make people understand his points.

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  56. I enjoyed the interview. Thanks!

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  57. Buffett also sold his silver at $7/oz

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  58. At least Buffett sees leaving QE2 early!

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  59. As far as owning the farmland in the US, I like the idea, but one concern is that I'm not sure how much it'll be worth if the US ever has to fight a war on it's own turf.

    I've purchased a few timber properties at great prices in the US to diversify out of Bernanke's confetti, but that doesn't mean there isn't any risk.

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  60. Buffet

    For all we know he might be a subscriber.

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  61. dg,
    please post if you get buy signal for SPY. thx!!

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  62. Sugar is set up for a big move to the upside.

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  63. Nike: I think you took the TBT trade I posted yesterday. Good start on it this morning. There are a lot off cross currents in Treasurys due to the QE nonsense, so I will be putting in my usual break-even stop if TLT takes a nice hit today. TBT up over 1% as I write this. I'll put my mental stop in if it gets to 38.25 or so.

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  64. Looks like concerns on SLW earnings.
    I am holding into earnings tomorrow. Anyone else?

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  65. TraderLady: Nope. My entries are often reversion to mean, so once they move the rubber band is relaxed the entry is ruined. Waiting to see if it "looks right" by getting price confirmation is usually too late, as it is with TBT. Doesn't mean it can;t work, just that I have lost interest in adding based on mean reversion

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  66. oa92: I will surely post when I get the next SPX buy, but they do not come often and we need some down days to get one, which have themselves become a rariity.

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  67. SLW has to have one of the best business models on the planet. No way would I sell that with the metals in a final C-wave rally.

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  68. It also may just be testing the breakout.

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  69. How can there be concerns on SLW earnings, they shoulddo very well right?

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  70. I've been looking at the rate of rise in silver. Last fall the rate was approximately 1.1% per day.

    The current rate of rise is about 2.2% per day.

    I'll bet that D wave will be a dozy.

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  71. Gary you mentioned "The final confirmation will come when the dollar breaks below the November intermediate cycle low" what value are we looking for here?

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  72. Thank you DG...will keep the same mental stop at 38.25

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  73. nevermind Gary I found it $75.63

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  74. GG looks like it's testing the breakout as well along with SLW

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  75. WES,

    It's insane. If we get anywhere near $50 then that pace will need to continue. The peak at $50 will sure be a sight and euphoria will be out of this world.
    That environment should setup really nicely for a sizable deep OTM put. A lottery of course, so no major commitment needed. "I would never think of shorting a gold bull" :)

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  76. Poly,

    I was already thinking the same thing.

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  77. All time weekly close above this red line in gold would be great. (I think it's around 1423 POG)

    GLD

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  78. I might throw a couple grand at SLW or SLV puts for a lottery D wave decline play.

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  79. Nike: You dog! You got it at a better price than I did!

    Haggerty: The question is not whether they do well, it's whether the beat what has been priced into the stock. If they disappoint it'll go down even if there earnings were up a ton.

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  80. Jawhawk,

    I'd think AGQ puts would be a natural.

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  81. Those would be rocket fuel for sure. I could see SLW getting rocked extra hard and they seem quite liquid & have tight spreads.

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  82. Jawhawk,

    And SLW will be extremely stretched above the 200 DMA by the time this C-wave is over, even further than silver is stretched. It is also a stock, so it will get dragged down with the stock market at least a little. SLW is probably a good candidate for a lottery ticket.

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  83. I know it's blasphemy to talking puts on SLW around these parts, but yes miners could get pounded harder than the metal...Regardless, it would just be tiny amt for me if I do it.

    Looking at the HUI performance so far vs. the summer move--first 6 weeks. Then HUI moved 15% or so off the intermediate bottom, so far we are up 18%...This being the 6th week.

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  84. traderlady: I'm a bit nervous with SLW reporting earnings tomorrow but like Gary says, no way am I going to give up my position either so I'm holding strong. I might even put some more in but then that's just the gambling side of me talking.

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  85. Fair enough about shorting PM's when the D-wave starts, but I will be focussing on some of the tech pieces of garbage with ridiculous PE's, or more likely, Q's You think PM bulls are hard to ride, try shorting and then having a 150 point up day! The 10 points AGQ was down last week freaked people out. Bear market rallies are something to behold! The Dow was up 900 points on 10/13/08 and then broke to new lows ten days later (by the way, I got a buy signal the day before---best one ever).

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  86. Ryan,
    If the market sells the news that will be the pullback you're looking for.

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  87. SLW only moving up 1.6% per day vs 2.2% per day for AGQ. Must be the extra vig from the double ETF, which will be working for you in the puts.

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  88. Buffet sold silver at $7 at 120 million ounces! I believe he bought at $5. Not bad return even though I'm sure he regrets the move.

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  89. I'm adding more SLW today.

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  90. half today and half after earnings

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  91. If SLW sells off to the news, I shall add as per Gary. Earnings are after the bell.

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  92. I will short FXI at 42.85 with a tight stop (that's a purchase of FXP at about 29.60 or so)

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  93. What was inconsistent in Buffett's silver trade was that he doesn't like metals because they have no earnings, unlike companies which can grow theirs, but it's not like he didn't know this before he bought 120 million ounces.

    Still, from $5 to $7 is 40% return, so not bad for a trade he didn't like.

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  94. Gentlemen, I made the mistake of bot a few GLD out of the money MArch calls - it is what it is...I have made some modest gains...can anyone give me some input as to when to sell them in here?

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  95. If you have gains get rid of them and don't buy out of the money options again.

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  96. I won't short the metals/miners for the D-wave. Like DG, I'll short stocks with poor fundamentals.

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  97. Last thing I want is to be short miners when the buyouts pick up into the D-wave decline. One could lose a big chunk of their accounts overnite.

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  98. This is the first day in awhile GPL hasn't been up 10%+

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  99. Shalom, we're talking AGQ/SLV, no buyouts. Plus we're talking a lottery put, nothing to cry over if it goes sour. But with Gary's ability to call the metals and a potential Silver collapse say $50 to $30, it's set's up as a very appealing risk/reward bet. As long as one doesn't get carried away.

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  100. K,

    I listened to Gary and sold my options and bought AGQ stock. You may not make as much $ but it will be easier to hang on if we get a daily cycle low soon.

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  101. Even SLV/AGQ short is a poor bet, IMO. As far as "lotto" money, I treat all funds the same and just prefer something with little risk of going to zero. Why not just short AGQ or SLV (with a stop loss in the amount of what you would risk on options), instead of options?

    The decision to use options is an entirely different issue than what vehicle to use them on. I'm not telling you what to do, just saying that I won't be joining you guys on that trade.

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  102. Thanks Gary, I'll hold off for now, not like i don't have enough exposure in there anyways. I will add if they sell the news.

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  103. Gary,

    I would be grateful if you could find the time in the newsletter to lay out your plans for the D Wave with particular reference to those of us who own the physical stuff. Would you sell out completely or go to a minimum core holding (insurance) to ride the wave down?

    Thanks

    Paul2

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  104. i agree , shorting the metals is a bad move no matter how you do it.
    I will be cutting my leverage significantly as we approach the end of the C wave and look into shorting the new zealand dollar or australian dollar versus the US dollar as a D wave play.

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  105. I will sell everything at the C-wave top.

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  106. My thought for those that own the physical: just short the equivalent of GLD if you want to get out. You'll be net zero when the D-wave ends.

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  107. anyone here feel all hell is going to break loose on the metals soon, to the upside?

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  108. The narrow range day does set up a swing high and possible move down into a daily cycle low. But I certainly wouldn't sell anything under that assumption.

    In bull markets the surprises come on the upside.

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  109. Can't wait to add 10-15 % leverage:)

    Gary: What would be the anticipated timeframe for daily cycle low.

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  110. A drop below 1428 in the next 2 days should set us up, and hopefully a chance to add

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  111. GPL having a bad day...there's a surprise :)

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  112. bamster
    i have been trying to figure out why there is no momentum behind the break of the all time high and my best reasoning is the currencies seem to be at important resistance levels but have not broken out yet. The currencies will lead all the other markets so it is important to analyze these charts. When they break out momentum will follow.

    Right now a lot of currency strategists are still bullish the dollar although they are starting to go more neutral.

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  113. Folks it's too late in the daily cycle to expect a huge momentum move now. That will come with the final daily cycle up.

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  114. What advice do my elders on here have for a 31 year old in regards to investing. I was very passive and just blindly dumped money into my 401k mutual funds until 2007. When my company offered a self directed brokerage account I became interested in learning more about the market and was introduced to point and figure analysis via Dorsey Wright shortly after. I wanted more insight on PMs and I came across Gary's premium site late last year. I am comfortable with PnF and like the other tech analysis tools I have picked up here including the TOC and cycle counts. I believe I will be best off trying to stay focused on PnF and becoming a master of it vs. trying to learn and incorporate several methods. Just looking for insight here on failures and successes. An answer with the approach of 'if I was thirty again I would...' would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance!

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  115. PNF is just a tool and not necessarily a successful strategy.

    Just ride the bull and you will be fine. Try to trade the bull and you will massively underperform.

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  116. Gary,

    Could that move down on Feb 24 have been the daily cycle low. I think that came on day 19.

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  117. Is this a good point to add more GPR/GPL or just sit and watch?

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  118. Exit door on GPL getting jammed up.
    Sold to close Mar 45 SLW options. Return was 516%. Still holding June 30's.

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  119. I'm not considering exiting just wondering if I should add more.

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  120. It certainly could. If I was just looking at the silver chart I would say the odds were high that it was. Except silver doesn't drive the metals sector, gold does.

    Anyway this is why I won't take a chance with positions here. If we do get a pull back I may add, but I won't sell assuming there will be a pullback.

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  121. This is what can happen with these small penny stocks and why I don't recommend putting very much money in any single one. When the momentum turns they can go down just as fast as they go up. 5% is probably plenty.

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  122. Yep thanks Gary ... I don't have very much at all in it and I could certainly add more and not feel any pain even if it went to zero.
    I'm just wondering if anyone else is considering adding more.

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  123. Thanks, and point taken about not selling. In fact, with that in mind, I may do a modest add. I'm at 114% now, 90% silver.

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  124. Gary is not a requirement that we have a swing high before a cycle low can be in place?

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  125. Regarding GPL, there is still one more gap to fill at $3.50 area. I will buy a little each down day it has until the cycle low is done or nullified.

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  126. Thanks Bob ... I saw that gap but was thinking it may not get there.
    I'll do the same ... add a bit at a time.

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  127. Yes we should have to see a swing, which we haven't. I'm not assuming we've seen a cycle low by any means. I'm just trying to warn novice investors of the danger of exiting expecting to be able to re-enter lower.

    The odds are not good that they will succeed.

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  128. Avann, That is a bearish engulfing candle on GPL. Those frequently but not always are a hint of more weakness to come. SLW has 2 hanging man candles on top now. Those occasionally mean the same. It gave me enough of a pause to close my options, but I wouldn't sell the stock over it.

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  129. Thanks Brian ... I added a little and now will just watch.
    My average price is still around 3 so I'm good for now.

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  130. Gary,

    Would you expect a cycle low next week or so, followed by one big very ERT cycle, followed by a ELT into D-Wave?

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  131. Great Panther is not a penny stock, they produce more silver than SLV has in its vaults. LOL

    AG and EXK fall into the same group.

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  132. Poly,

    What is ERT and ELT, right translated and left translated?

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  133. A $3 stock is a penny stock. A stock selling at that kind of price is risky.

    5% is plenty of allocation in something like that.

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  134. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/paul-other-republicans-rip-into-bernanke-2011-03-02
    Here are some quotes from the article.

    Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas) called inflation a “deadly threat” to the economy and said it’s being caused by current monetary policy.

    “I would suggest that we still have a lot of inflation in the system and it is going to get much worse,” Paul said.

    Paul said that economists he follows argue that consumer prices are rising at a 9% clip and that the money supply is rising at a 24% pace.

    “Inflation is exploding and interest rates are going to go up and we are going to have one heck of a problem in the future,” Paul said.

    “There are more people who believe that aliens in Roswell than believe inflation is 1.6%,” said Rep. Steve Pearce (R., N.M.). His district includes the town of Roswell, where a spaceship is rumored to have crashed in 1947.

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  135. Gary, can you comment on these cycle theories, Peter Eliades 212 week cycle due to resolve about July 4, 2011 (presumably a low??) and Armstrong's 8.6 year economic confidence model cycle resolution expected around June 13, 2011 (also presumably a low??)
    thanks

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  136. Bob,

    I would check those facts, I doubt GPL produces 350 million ounces of Silver, LOL. More like 2 million!

    GPL was at $0.60 8 months ago, It's not a penny stock, but at a $400m market cap after a 400% run, it's not far from one!

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  137. "Extreme" Left or Right Translated.

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  138. Poly, I would guess that that type of question is exactly the type of cycles question Gary would like to see less of on the comments - too much info for non-subscribers.

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  139. Good job Brian. I've got SLV and SLW March calls up similar % and was thinking of closing those too.

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  140. I realize the cycles have to do with the stock market, but lets face it, in the last several years the moves in the general stock market have had profound influence on the mining stocks.
    Mining stocks can diverge from gold itself, like during an important stock market low, but I invest in mining shares for the leverage to the metal itself (although that has not been working lately but is typical?) and expect mining companies to have good earnings if gold goes to $1600 or $2000~
    ?

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  141. Where has TZ been at? I bet he's down at the ferrari dealership picking his car out:)

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  142. Gary, I agree on allocation, but for me there is a huge difference between an on the come miner and a producer that has a small market cap against their growing production and growing reserves.

    Poly, SLV has no silver, it has as much silver as Social Security trust fund has cash.

    I also own quite a bit of AGQ, so not worried about default, Bernanke will pay off the hedge funds extorting the Comex for March Delivery, we'll sell off and then we will run hard again into the next delivery month..

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  143. There is too much risk of dilution or other significant company specific problems for anyone to get heavily involved in these small companies.

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  144. Although I'd welcome a pullback to add to miners, say over the next week or so, I also won't be surprised if they have more upside from here. My indicators suggest there is more short term upside even after the huge run we've had. Just another day to stand aside and wait patiently.

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  145. For the Canadian's out there, I know we can use HZU instead of AGQ but are there another option on the TSX in replacement for SIL?

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  146. oa92: Nice move on TBT so far. Nike, did you do this one? Do you ever short?

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  147. oil is up 2% while gold is almost flat. Talk about an out of whack market!! :P

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  148. DG,

    I haven't shorted in a while...got burnt a little shorting S&P in the 1270s and now waiting for Gary's signal to go short again

    yep..got into a little TBT when you gave that alert yesterday

    Also the little FXP trade you mentioned

    thank you so very much for the alerts

    unfortunately, I'm not as experienced as most of you on this board...I will definitely mention something if I see something

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  149. Gary, with all due respect, IF you are willing to do serious DD, you can take out a lot of the risk in a junior miner. I am in PZG with a triple - saw Albert Friedberg go in, and then did the work - and looking for another triple. They'll file a killer NI 43-101 later this month. Also in OOO.V, the entire team came from Echo Bay and they bought an Echo Bay property. Up only 33% on that one, but there is MUCH more to come. Also GPD.TO, because it and KAM.V are going to be the big remaining Yukon plays, and management has done it before. You have to spend a lot of time looking at maps and core results, and maybe put your feet on the ground, but the rewards are mutiples of what the metal will do. Been all-in on silver and gold for two years, and I subscribed to your service because you are a superb cycles analyst.

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  150. Nike: Please be careful. I did NOT recommend a buy of FXP yesterday. I said IF FXI hits 42.80, then buy FXP and FXI has not gotten there. When I am doing these "stretched rubber band" trades it is important for the rubber band to get fully stretched before we can expect it to snap back. Do not jump the gun. You are probably ahead on your FXP purchase and if so should sell FXP now. You can buy it back cheaper if/when FXI hits 42.80, but I have no opinion about what FXI is going to do here and now. Also---important---these price points are only good for a day or two, so don't think abut them next week.

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  151. Nike: One other thing---don't feel you got burned by shorting and thus shy away from shorting. You got burned by being wrong. You can be wrong on the long side as well. The real mistake was shorting a roaring bull market. The very best traders have a hard time doing that, and by your own admission, you are not one of them. Don't do it. China and Bonds (TLT) are both in bear markets, so shorting makes sense. Different story.

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  152. GLD is at the top of the BoW list today: 53 mill, with 57 mill in block trades.

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  153. thats so true , never short a strong bull!!

    just look at what happened to MLMT! he got 3rd degree burns from trying to short silver.

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  154. looks like some stops needed to be blown out around 34.30

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  155. Anybody adding here that's waiting to add?

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  156. Nice low volume sell off after Comex closed for silver.

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  157. Ryan - Waiting for the daily cycle low to add...recognizing that we may not recognize it until after it's come and gone. But we're in the timing band.

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  158. I will not add until we get an official cycle low ... and if that never happens I have enough to keep me happy.

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  159. Ryan, I have not been able to find an equivalent to SIL on the TSX so I have basically created a mini fund of miners instead. A little more work but the returns have been better so I think its worth it:

    SLW.to
    FR.to
    GPL.to
    SVM.to
    EXK.to
    AXR.to

    I don't own PZG.to but will probably buy some soon.

    You need to monitor position sizing as per Gary's reco but you can easily build up 25-30% of your account with the above (not including SLW).

    I also own MMP-UN.to which is a dividend paying (15%!) gold trust and I variety of gold miners.

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  160. DG,

    Thank you...out of the FXP trade..will wait for complete confirmation from here on out..

    yea...thank you for the kind words about shorting as well..i've never been able to make much money shorting..I need to be careful and start getting better at it.

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  161. Thanks guys, I'm still trying to understand what a swing low/high and daily cycle low means. I don't think I'll know how to spot it, I'm sure Gary will issue an alert or something so I'll just wait until then.

    Blammo, thanks I was also considering doing that as well but it might be too much management and complication for me. I guess if I want to keep it simple, I can always change more USD.

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  162. Ryan, Gary will defn let us know ... that is the bread and butter of cycle analysis.

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  163. AGQ

    151.94
    144.01
    185.35
    162.63
    197.80

    1,3,5 wave respectively 35.17,41.35,35.17

    todays high 50c more.

    of course these ratios may mean nothing for 2x etf plus in C wave. But if there is swing high for daily cycle then this seems to be good spot.
    Retracement may be up to 168 or so which will be still above big one day selloff low.

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  164. if a guy wanted an oil play....what would be a good vechicle to play oil increasing in the short run?

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  165. You know what I would love right about now? I nice bull flag. Or a rocket higher into a nice bull flag. Whatever, as long as it comes with a nice bull flag.

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  166. Silver Update: You cant make this stuff up


    http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/03/silver-update-you-cant-make-this-stuff.html

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  167. Gold closed Feb with a major monthly reversal signal. Yesterday and today, it traded a monthly double top.

    The market is now set for either a significant fall, to comply with the reversal, or a retest of the double top.

    Historically when what we're seeing happens, there are these pull backs and pass throughs until finally the prior top, 1434.8, is a meaningless number.

    Currently, we are trading at the prior top, 1434.4.

    IMO, this last few hour drop has cleaned out the weakhanded tight stopped traders (goodbye!).

    I still hope the uptrend will continue (the one Gary refers to). If so, we will see 1540-55 on the top of the first surge up.

    As I'm long, I have a bias. But the market is just now, today, setting up its final line of resistance.

    In a few days, by Monday, we will know what which way the gold market will move, based on this huge reversal now formed. Silver has already made its statement. It's eaten the attacks against it like a vegan does a bowl of vegetables, interesting, tasty, with the bitter roots just accents enhancing the experience.

    As I've said, rejection of the reversal means at least 300 points above 1434.8 and max move of 650 points; and like all of us, we "need" this rise to help us fulfill our material dreams.

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  168. Mr. Peak, have you heard of a "C" wave?

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  169. Yes it looks like we are in the midst of it now!

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  170. Peak, are you trying to show SLV is at a "top" area for the stretch of the rubber band right now?

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  171. GPL may close in the top half of its range today (midpoint is 4.36). which would be a very good sign. I bought just a little more at 4.09, but that's it for me. Man do these little suckers move!

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  172. Brian or Bob,

    Would appreciate if you can post when you decide to pull the sell trigger on GPL.

    Thanks!

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  173. Slum-

    Not seeing what you're seeing - are you looking at a daily chart? I'm struggling to see a double top...

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  174. Romeo....picking tops is not easy

    Picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers.

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  175. For those on you interested in an up-and-coming royalty company in the SLW mold focused on gold (the CEO is the ex-CFO of SLW) you might check Sandstorm Gold (SSL.V). Their assets are in politically stable countries (Canada, MX, and Brasil) with sub $500 gold royalty cost, going from 10K oz royalty in early 2011 to 40K oz in 2012. I've owned the stock for 15 months. Good corporate presentation on their web site. Do your own DD.

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  176. Mark,

    I've been in it for a few months. Nothing major, but a small position. The one things I worry about is the big float. A lot of shares for a small company. But as you noted, good management and a good and proven business model being executed by those who have already done it before with SLW.

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  177. When I look at the monthly chart of gold, i see a picture perfect bull flag that is breaking out to the upside.

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  178. Silverman, I won't sell GPL until the D wave. They are doubling production from last year until 2012, with increasing reserves, and increasing prices. Their cost to mine silver is very low, meaning profit leverage to price.

    I am adding to on weakness.

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  179. Wingman,

    I agree on the share float, but they have the right business model and proven management, which are really an important components of a successful junior. I too have a small position, especially compared to SLW.....check out their corporate presentation, and you'll I'm sure you'll agree that it's a nice growth story, especially since you're a share owner!

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  180. TJ,

    I believe Slum is looking at the monthly chart.

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  181. Bob,

    OK. That's a clear statement. Thanks.

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  182. Mark, Wingman,

    There is another gold junior with a very similar name that I own a modest amount of: Sandspring Resources (SSP.V). It has a promising gold/copper project in Guyana with most of the infrastructure on site. The chart is interesting--seems to be putting in the right shoulder of an H&S pattern and seems to be breaking up. I'm not competent enough to interpret drilling results but respect the management. Don't know whether you've heard of that one.

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  183. Silverman, I second Bob Loves Hawaii on the GPR sale. As long as this c-wave continues and investors see the appreciation in sp, there will be volume and momentum.

    It is my biggest holding - now 24.7%, so Gary would slap me upside the head if he read this! I have bias, as it was the first silver miner I bought, in early 2009. man, there were some frustrating months, but it is paying off handsomely now! :D

    Someone on the last thread referred to the electrum they found; they mentioned it once in the body of a press release ages ago, but never again. I ask: how much electrum?! :O

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  184. Gary, I want you to know that I really appreciated the advice you gave me re: junior miners. I have followed your advice inasmuch as HZU, non-existant in my account a month ago, is now my #2 holding. I have decided to be a little risky, however, with GPR and small holdings of a few others. You yourself have a few (though how you can't look at them for months is beyond me!).I can't help it! I've got the junior miner bug!

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  185. Guys, Please let me know when you add to GPR. I may start some shares.

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  186. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  187. Gary, FYI, I read this on SOH website ... it was in the comments section

    Tim Knight(click for details)Trading idea: buy GLD.

    Opened at 140.36 on 3/2/11 9:01AM, closed at 140.37 at 9:38AM.

    I think I'm finally seeing the light on this. Gary Savage is a genius.

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  188. gary

    whats your plan if you mis-time the c-wave top @ circa 1650 and we jettison all positions to see gold rocket to 2000?

    nice radio interview btw

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  189. Clark,

    Gary always says he exits too early, so just set your stops at his exits and let your winners run.

    ;-)

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  190. Gary,

    What, if possible, would you estimate your whole subscriber pool is invested based on your lead? $50 million? That'd be $20,000 avg. with 2500 subscribers. That might be conservative, right?

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  191. Robert, I would think so. My frends and I who are subscribers are at many multiples of that number, and I think we are typical, not exceptions.

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