Gary, What are your thoughts on May 15 marking the 2nd DCL at 23 days? This short cycle would balance out the 1st DCL of 47 days and put the SPX on day 31 of DCL #3. June 12 looks nothing like a DCL to me. The May 15 bottom at least broke the 50 DMA and attempted to touch the Bollinger Band. I would note that while DCL #1 had 3 different pivots that looked like half cycle lows, this does not mean that DCL #2 has to have 3 pivots as well. I see the half cycle low being put it on May 7.
IMO the real move down into the DCL began with the second failed attempt to move above 1900 on May 13. The market then broke the cycle trend line which usually indicates the move into the DCL has begun. But if stocks had dropped into a DCL in the normal timing band that would have put them into a serious correction for the June taper. And as we've seen the Fed isn't going to allow the market to enter a significant correction ahead of a taper.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on May 15 marking the 2nd DCL at 23 days? This short cycle would balance out the 1st DCL of 47 days and put the SPX on day 31 of DCL #3. June 12 looks nothing like a DCL to me. The May 15 bottom at least broke the 50 DMA and attempted to touch the Bollinger Band. I would note that while DCL #1 had 3 different pivots that looked like half cycle lows, this does not mean that DCL #2 has to have 3 pivots as well. I see the half cycle low being put it on May 7.
May 15 has to be re-phased as a half cycle low.
ReplyDeleteIMO the real move down into the DCL began with the second failed attempt to move above 1900 on May 13. The market then broke the cycle trend line which usually indicates the move into the DCL has begun. But if stocks had dropped into a DCL in the normal timing band that would have put them into a serious correction for the June taper. And as we've seen the Fed isn't going to allow the market to enter a significant correction ahead of a taper.