I'm not trying to pick a top here. The Fed is trying to prop this market up as the continue the taper. They don't want a repeat of 2010 & 2011. Picking a top with the Fed actively intervening in the market is dangerous.
FWIW I was also in the camp for a double top above 5000 but then the Ukraine event happened and the markets chewed through a big chunk of the intermediate cycle without going anywhere. Unless a runaway move develops there shouldn't be enough time left in the intermediate cycle for the Nasdaq to reach 5000 before an intermediate top.
No question. Long gold. A short position can only drop 100% and since it's impossible for the stock market to go to 0 realistically the most one could expect to make shorting SPY would be 40-50%. Gold normally rises 20-25% during one intermediate cycle.
What is your opinion on the Nasdaq? I believe it will make a double top matching the 2000 high before we plunge down on all indices.
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to pick a top here. The Fed is trying to prop this market up as the continue the taper. They don't want a repeat of 2010 & 2011. Picking a top with the Fed actively intervening in the market is dangerous.
ReplyDeleteFWIW I was also in the camp for a double top above 5000 but then the Ukraine event happened and the markets chewed through a big chunk of the intermediate cycle without going anywhere. Unless a runaway move develops there shouldn't be enough time left in the intermediate cycle for the Nasdaq to reach 5000 before an intermediate top.
ReplyDeleteHi Gary - which do you suspect will bring greater returns, short SPY or long GLD or GDX? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNo question. Long gold. A short position can only drop 100% and since it's impossible for the stock market to go to 0 realistically the most one could expect to make shorting SPY would be 40-50%. Gold normally rises 20-25% during one intermediate cycle.
DeleteGold is going to 1000 oz. and will probably go a little underneath that to wipe out all stops. Stay out.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2248693-what-falling-interest-rates-and-falling-gold-prices-have-in-common
ReplyDeleteNo inflation. Gold to continue lower. Good article.
Interesting how far gold's parabola got above its MA. Maybe there's further to go on the downside there too.
ReplyDelete