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Thursday, September 22, 2011

CONTRARY INVESTORS CAFÉ INTERVIEW

Interview with Tekoa Da Silva of ContraryInvestorsCafe.com

315 comments:

  1. I find this kind of scary, but it seems to square with Gary's expectations:

    Randy Wray: The Biggest Bubble of All Time – Commodities Market Speculation

    By L. Randall Wray, a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Cross posted from EconoMonitor

    Back in fall of 2008 I wrote a piece examining what was then the biggest bubble in human history: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb_96.pdf.

    Say what? You thought that was tulip bulb mania? Or, maybe the NASDAQ hi-tech hysteria?

    No, folks, those were child’s play. From 2004 to 2008 we experienced the biggest commodities bubble the world had ever seen. If you looked to the top 25 traded commodities, you found prices had doubled over the period. For the top 8, the price inflation was much more spectacular.

    Read the rest here:
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/4484n2e

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

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  2. Le Fou,
    Randy Wray is a typical academic idiot.

    Commodities are not in a bubble they are in a secular bull market driven by supply and demand and excessive money creation.

    The only true bubble at this time is a gigantic bubble in US government debt. When that bubble pops it's going to look like the end of the world is here.

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  3. I don't trust anyone whose title is 'Professor of Economics' (except for Bob Murphy), but Univ of Missouri-Kansas City in particular is a den of quacks. That's one of the few places MMT actually has an academic presence.

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  4. I cannot recall a day when I haven't heard that gold and silver are in their own respective "bubbles". I can understand that to some extent, because if you were one of the people that watches housing rising and rising and rising and then finally decided "you had to buy" and catch the train, only to see your house fall 40% in value, you are pretty aware of how bubbles can hurt.


    This is MUCH different than the housing bubble where everyone was buying. This is different than the NASDAQ bubble where everyone was buying. This time Everyone is selling! They're taking Grandmoms wedding ring, and their gold chains and cashing out. They're flocking to these "we buy gold" outfits and SELLING to them. They are NOT lined up in the parking lot to BUY. They're taking their money and buying ipads.

    My bottom line here is that "there's more than meets the eye", neither are even anywhere close to being a bubble, and yes, it's still fine to buy the stuff.

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  5. Abdullah you are preaching to the choir.

    Just because gold is in a bull market doesnt mean it's immune to severe corrections and long consolodations. Take a look at 2006 and 2008.

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  7. yo shalom bernake,
    you still long dem miners?

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  8. someone posted that NUGT is going to become a 3x etf from dec 2011...that would be nasty

    i can totally see the fear with buying NUGT when Gary calls the intermediate bottom, asking us to buy miners

    NUGT would be down 25% on a day like today...UGLY

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  9. Le Fou,

    a 100% rise in four years, and he thinks it's the greatest bubble of all time. Does he live in a paper bag or something?

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  10. JG

    Don't be knocking SB. I think he well aware of what he is doing.

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  11. Vonda,

    I would not go long AGQ here at 165. Sure there could be a wicked (albeit temporary) bounce, but I would wait a couple of weeks and see how things shake out. If this gets carried away AGQ could easily to 120 or lower.

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  12. My system has taken it's first loss today since July 2010, and Gary's analysis of a D wave seems to be occuring.A loss never felt so good as it confirms to me that this gold bull is not over yet:):):)

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  13. Anyone see AGQ today? I shiver just thinking I was long 150% just a few months ago

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  14. gold silver troll,

    NUGT DUST 3X effective Dec 1, 2011

    http://etfdailynews.com/2011/09/22/direxion-changes-investment-objectives-and-strategies-of-10-leveraged-funds/

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  15. Gold Miner bullish % largest one day drop in more than a year.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM

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  16. Dan,

    AGQ could be in for a serious shellacking. But within 18-24 months AGQ could easily be over $600. The hard part will be buying at the D Wave bottom, like Gary said. Who's going to want AGQ when it's trading at $110? or $75? (Answer: Me)

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  17. Danno

    What price do you think silver will get to to get AGQ to $600?

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  18. Yeah, me too, Danno . . . buying at $100 + or - AGQ.

    And I hear you. AND, I couldn't keep myself from going long at EOD. Put in an after hours sell order (so I could go take a nap) and lucked out with a three-point profit. LOVE those naps.

    But I do hear you. Will wait, will wait . . .

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  19. I just wanted to check in and say...

    Gary- your Puppies posting (toby) of that last article on 321gold, and finacial sense, etc was GREAT TIMING.

    I spent today doing a good deal of juggling, cut some weak holdings, and even day tading to scalp quick profits...all that work (and still hold a strong 'core' from Mid June)...but still ended in the red :)

    So my thoughts are this from here--

    I want to be truthful ...This dip in Miners today caught me by surprise. I was VERY bullish Miners and thought the feds speech would push gold/miners higher.
    So now the charts have changed their overall pattern...and it may take time to see what they are doing.

    Equities like RIC and EXK didnt look so bad, I am expecting higher prices still, but time to repair damage could ( for example) cause a "HANDLE" to form on EXK. A sideways $10 to $12 channel from here?

    but GDX was such large volume that I need to "listen to what its telling me" from here. See how things sell off from here, and see how they are bought back. I expect a bounce soon.

    I am looking at DRV and TZA (after they pullback) and EDZ (after a pullback) if I feel I need to make 'gains' on the short side while holding my core position. (hedge a bit).

    TRADER MODE AGAIN :)

    best wishes-

    Alex

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  20. To Clarify,

    when I said, "I spent today doing a good deal of juggling, cut some weak holdings, and even day tading to scalp quick profits...all that work (and still hold a strong 'core' from Mid June)...but still ended in the red :) "

    Obviously I have been in Miners since Mid June, I am not suddenly in the red...I meant that there was No fighting this market sell today...even day trading etc, the account ended in the red For The Day. :)

    The summer gains are good, but now its "trader mode" / preservation ,until this market tells me where it wants to go...

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  21. Alex

    I was wondering how you were doing. Both you and Poly were very bullish on gold and miners. And Gary was saying the opposite. Both made very good cases. Believe me I was tempted to take a chance on a few miners but better judgment won. I felt it would be smarter to miss profits than take losses.

    You both are smart enough in risk management to avoid any serious damage.

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  22. Tomorrow at the open i will be buying seeds for my garden. I am expecting a 70% return.

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  23. SF Giants Fan,

    Silver would probably need to hit about $65 for AGQ to hit $600.

    If this sell off turns into a 2008 style route, then I guess it could take a bit longer than 24 months for silver to reach $65. Maybe 28 months. It's impossible to say until we see where this bottom winds up.

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  25. aklaunch,

    A guy I knew was stuck in line at a hardware store years ago. A woman in front of him was buying a bag of 50 to 100 seeds for $1 or $2. He was bored so he asked her about the seeds. It dawned on him during their conversation that the plants the woman was hoping to grow sold for $30 to $50 EACH at the nursery.

    So the man opened a nursery (and eventually two more) and became a multimillionaire.

    He said that moment in line at the hardware store he had witnessed a ROI that could not be matched by any investment he had ever seen.

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  26. Hi Gary:

    If this new SPX IT cycle fails (drops below the August low), must all subsequent IT cycles also be LT? Or can cycles alternate between LT and RT for the duration of the Bear Market?

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  27. close...close...closer..closer...CLOSER...D-WAVE !!!!.. Finally...

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  28. All support in silver has been breached. Now gathering cash to buy at Gary's $24 bottom.

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  29. Gary

    Very humbling interview. Thankyou.

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  30. Still keeping my gold and hedges though. I would feel really stupid holding fiat if a six sigma event were to occur.

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  31. In with a 1x gold futures position. Stop near the low of 1701.

    We didn't hold the previous low at 1705 and the weakness is surprising, but my stop was below 1701 and it didnt hit before we have started up so I'll see if we get a rally now. (There were 7000 gold contracts traded when we punched the previous 1705 low).

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  32. TZ,

    Gold is showing surprising strength in the face of a silver collapse.

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  33. Closed position; small loss. The fact that we couldn't even slightly bounce at 1705 bothers me.

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  34. Joseph,

    Not as much strength as I expected. 1705 didn't pause at all. I think this is weaker than I thought.

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  35. Silver conspiracy theorists are throwing themselves in front of trains right now. lol

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  36. The Captian has turned on the seat belt sign. The D wave has arrived.

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  37. You guys should read the posts on tfmetalsreport.com for a laugh.
    Too funny

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  38. I have some 'core' silver position which isn't much (I'm still mostly cash here), but the silver drop is STILL mentally destabilizing me from a trading perspective. Almost 20% in a single day?!? I can only imaging people who are fully long. This is definitely a capitulation drop.

    (Actually I don't have to imagine it. We've all be in similar before unfortunately)

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  39. Yes, little doubt now. Although we should find a DCL soon enough and that rally might be convincing to many.

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  40. Some of my trackers are not that far from ICL reading, already! I it's way too early for one, so I expect some meaningful bounce later next week.

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  41. A bounce is still likely in gold somewhere...maybe still in this zone where I don't have the stomach to hold. But my target is now 1600ish to buy back in. (I don't think we go lower as gary is speculating, but who knows. Let's discuss it when we get there).

    Not holding 1705 means we don't have a triangle congestion (the most common) although maybe something else will form that keeps us around here then resume going up (but that isn't as likely)

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  42. More downside. Wow the weakness is surprising. Glad I too my money and ran. Clear capitulation selling on this stuff.

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  43. Maybe we will be discussing 1600 later today
    :-)

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  44. Gary

    Thank you sir.

    My first experience seeing the D wave (PUKE) and you are right. There is no #%€£¥ing way I could hold thru this.

    Everything on my list is RED except ZSL and DZZ.

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  45. ^ Once you've been an options trader and blown out your account several times, holding through a paper loss is a piece of cake. (Especially if you've got a good hedge going.)

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  46. I wonder if Basil believes me now about low 20's on silver :-)

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  47. I wonder if beanie believes you now about the market not quite going straight to da moon immediately..."get ready for the biggest rippin-est bull market ever"

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  48. Gold may find support today on the 75sma (around 1675) on a daily and catch a little bounce back up to the 150sma on a 5 min if anyone wishes to try and make a few bucks on the long side right now.

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  49. Now Beanie says he still thinks DOW 36,000 if BO is reelected. Poor guy is addicted to koolaid.

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  50. Silver in the 32s already...wow...silver crash part 2...just wow

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  51. I wonder how many people believe now that gold is not going straight to heaven, nevermind the moon.

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  52. Gary,

    I bow in front of you out of respect..amazing read of the tape!
    Thanks for taking care of us

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  53. Danno

    It seems from what people have posted here is the only way to be experienced at options trading "Is to blow your account a few times "

    So let me ask you. When you say blow your account, how many zeros are you talking?

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  54. Oh, how much did I lose buying options before I learned that you should not buy options to speculate? Oh, probably $100,000 spread over a few years. I no longer speculate with options. It's a fools errand. The only thing I do with options is sell covered calls or buy a small options position to protect a much larger stock position.

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  55. HAHA ... Gary ... Basil and Beanie are just a couple of the folks that popped into my head when I woke up this morning :)
    Really enjoying my cup of coffee this morning ...

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  56. Basil and Beanie if you're reading ... please don't think my enjoyment is aimed at your pain ... I'm just very happy with Gary's calls and my ability to listen and wait :)

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  57. Who will be dipping their toe in the gold today? Should we expect a bounce soon since it will be so oversold?

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  58. You expect a bounce at the daily cycle low. We aren't there yet. D-Wave's usually last 6 to 8 weeks. This one is just getting started.

    There will be plenty of countertrend rallies to keep all of the permna-bulls holding on all the way into the bottom, probably in mid November.

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  59. Gary-
    Do you think the dollar intermediate cycle is 20 weeks in or did we bottom early at 15 weeks and are now on a new intermediate cycle that is on its 5th week?

    Thanks

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  60. Bottom early. We are at the very beginning of the second daily cycle. There will probably be three or four daily cycles up before this intermediate cycle rolls over into an intermediate degree decline.

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  61. this is the last opportunity to get on the gold bull... people only have a change to get in until Sunday evening before the Asian market open and the chinese overwhelm the market with their physical buying...

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  62. Gary,

    This IT cycle in stocks, around 15 weeks?

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  63. Wow! Silvers at $32$! Did not expect this at all! Am actually tempted to take on some positions here this is crazy!

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  64. Just wanted to make clear... I WAS an avid options trader for years. I am NO LONGER an options trader. Meaning, I no longer buy options to speculate on price movements. I will SELL covered calls or (maybe) naked puts if I feel there is a low risk opportunity. But I will ONLY buy options if I'm looking for some kind of hedge to protect a much larger stock position. There is no other reason to buy options IMO except for pure greed. I currently own no options. I did sell some covered calls last week on AGQ... and I rather fancy I will be keeping all of THAT income. lol

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  65. Razvan,

    Your account balance should improve if you don't smoke crack.

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  66. Golds break below 1705 triggers the Double Top pattern which suggests a short term target of 1480 to 1500, which happens to be the July 1 pivot low.

    .

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  67. The IT cycle in stocks is on week 6.

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  68. Say it ain't so, Silverhound! :)

    For those that are interested, if things open as they are right now, my accounts will cross into the red on my miners today.

    Haven't decided if I'll buy anything today, but I'm leaning that way. However, I do believe that the decline has been severe enough that an Old turkey approach will take some time to pay out.
    With this much damage, we need time to rebuild after we find the bottom. Gary's 6 weeks D-wave sounds about right, so if I do any buying it will be relatively small and only to stay focused on the side I want to be on longer term.

    Good luck, fellas!

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  69. Ravsun,
    That is the mentality that has to be washed out of the sector before gold can put in a D-wave bottom. It has gone up for so long and so far that no one believes there is any downside risk. So they buy thinking that fundamentals are going to support the asset class.

    This has nothing to do with fundamentals, this has to do with human emotions. This is a regression to the mean profit-taking event that as the ball gets rolling down the hill will feed on itself and until humans do what they always do, take things to extremes.

    History has shown those extremes occur when 50 to 62% of the previous C-wave advance is retraced.

    The intermediate degree bottom isn't due until November. It should come with gold somewhere between 1300 and $1400. That is the kind of devastating selloff that will wash all of the bullish sentiment out of the sector and allow for a violent A-wave advance.

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  70. Gary,

    I hardly can wait for that moment!
    Really ? Silver at 20$?

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  71. SB

    It's a cruel market. Learn to take advantage of it or it will take advantage of you.

    And that is my sermon for the day :-)

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  72. Gary,

    I meant what will be the expected duration of this IT cycle in stocks...around 15 weeks long?

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  73. shalom, your always buying, you must be the president of the pm perma bull society

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  74. Not really, I just want out of confetti for the next several years. I've only bought pullbacks, and not all of them.

    A bull thinks things are going up, while I think metals and miners will likely go lower or sideways for some time, before going up. I suppose it depends on one's expected time frame for a trade, just like I didn't sell when several of my positions were up 20-40%, I knew I'd likely stay in the trade to at least Feb.

    Gotta buy 'em sometime, unless one wants to be sitting in fiat as it devalues. :)

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  75. added 3/3 long QQQ position. i'll spare everyone the same chart i've been posting. despite what the price is doing there is more demand than supply.

    gold should bounce too but not touching that one with a 10 foot pole.

    g'day and good luck everyone

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  76. And as Feb rolled around, I'd still only trim a little if I was sitting on doubles all over the place.

    With all the Great Depression talk I'm seeing, one only has to look at what happened to everything, including miners, during the Great Depression. It might be the only place to preserve wealth, if it works at all and I'm able to stay focused on the plan. We'll see.

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  77. SB,

    My fiat will be going up for a couple of more months...;)

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  78. In a deflation fiat doesn't devalue.

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  79. During the depression gold didn't rise until the government debased the currency.

    Bernake has clearly stopped printing ...for now. Has long as that continues the massive deflationary forces lose in the world will continue to chew away at all asset classes, except the dollar and apparently treasuries.

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  80. I'm just sharing my trade, not making a prediction that my holdings rally immediately.

    I agree that lower prices look likely, I just prefer to be out of some confetti, the rest of my fiat is going up like everybody else's. :)

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  81. Reading some people blew up their accounts past 24hrs. We should be thankful we got out, lots if pain going around today.

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  82. Who blew out? I haven't down the rounds today so haven't heard anything about that.

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  83. the fed's dollar swap program is still running strong. that one flies under a lot of people's radar.

    regardless the dollar could and probably will rally for a long while relative to the euro and yen. the question for me is, does it still matter? is 2011 really 2008 again?

    long term i am of the belief that all assets will rise. PMs getting sold off simply because there are expensive relative to anything else, like stocks. this will flip again eventually.

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  84. Gary,

    In the depression gold was the money. After the gov,t confiscation gold was repriced higher, devaluing the fiat currency about 40 percent.

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  85. SOLARnot feasible--staying short fslr

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  86. Sleeper:

    If I'm lucky, my Fiat will be going up for sale in a couple months :)

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  87. This D-wave bottom will be the biggest call of our lifetimes.

    No pressure Gary.

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  88. WW:

    The 150sma on a 5 minute chart takes G back up to 1725ish..you think that's gonna happen today?

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  89. I would be shocked if gold can rally much if at all until it closes that gap at $1650.

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  90. The new American business model, brought to you by a politician who has never run a business. First find an industry that is economically not feasible, but appeals to the emotions with no regard to logic, reason or common sense. Tell that politician you can create x number of jobs(the larger the number, the better). Secure large amounts of taxpayer dollars. If you are questioned before giving the money, use simple bullying tactics to silence your critics. Burn through the cash,but only after securing your financial future and then close the business. Finally, when be asked to explain yourself, take the 5 th. Swell

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  91. WMP,

    Gold may trade sideways into tonight and let the 150sma catchup, so when it does finally tag the 150sma it may be at around 1705 or so.

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  92. WMP,

    BTW... the 75sma on a daily may not act as support and gold may rip right through it. But as of now thats next support.

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  93. covered fslr---hope ror rally to re-short

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  94. I have nothing but disgust with Obama, but please, he did not invent American style crony capitalism (aka, fascism).


    GWB:
    "I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system."

    lol. What a joke.

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  95. If the fund managers don't come in around $1670 then it looks like free air below... Fidelity has GLD and SLV as their top buys for the day but GLD is a top sell as well. This means indecision, which is not good...

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  96. Only Bernanke and his cronies (Lloyd, Jamie etc.) will know for sure when to go long gold.

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  97. Some folks here need a reality check.

    I sold silver at $48 (see my blog posts) after holding AGQ starting early September 2010. Btw, I didn't buy into miners during that run and gave here explanations why (see my blog posts); I then suggested in May that silver would bottom out in the low 30s (see my blog posts). I then suggested that the last chance to buy back into silver was when it was in the mid thirties and in that same post I said that buying it in low forties will be a mistake that I am sure some late comers will make (see my blog posts). Silver did in fact go into the low to mid forties, which is where I sold. I have been out of all my PM positions (with exception of physical silver) long before this current correction started. My physical I will keep until silver reaches my target for this bull.
    Of course, I regret having sold my long position in DGP in the upper forties as per Gary's recommendation, thereby missing an over 60% run up, but I did not go back into gold once I was out and missed the train; I just went into silver for a short term trade from mid thirties to low forties (as per my blog posts).
    No, my assumption was not that PMs would just run to the moon (who would be stupid enough to believe that?), and I certainly never posted such a nonsense here. What I did is that I simply pointed out the bad trades on this blog over the course of a very long summer, and the annoying 'know it all' attitude that came with it; and, of course, the missed trade on gold over the past 3.5 months, which was the only bad trade I made this year. Would love to know who of those here shouting the loudest, matches my performance. I think, not so many.
    And btw, just as a footnote, DGP would have to fall another 25% from here to get to where Gary suggested to sell it in early summer, just FYI.

    Also, I posted here in May that I believe silver will bottom out at $31. In the same series of posts I suggested that silver might even run a short term dip to $28 (max downside). So why would I now believe that silver will drop to $21, any more than I didn't believe it in May?

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  98. wmp,

    >"If I'm lucky, my Fiat will be going up for sale in a couple months :)"

    Touche`! Depending on how Italy fares, maybe you can trade your Fiat for a Ferrari!

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  99. LOL do you really think anyone believes that load of BS?

    You were touting the virtues of Old Turkey all the way up and rubbing it in our face that we were missing the move.

    You just got caught but won't admit it.

    Please just go away. No one takes you seriously anymore.

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  100. Basil - I personally didn't think Gary has an annoying attitude, I just think that he believes in what he knows, and is confident. If he is not confident, how would we, the subscribers feel?

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  101. Angry Hippie,

    Sorry I missed your post yesterday...I plan on taking off the SQQQ near the DCL and put on the TQQQ, how long I hold the TQ's im not sure yet...im still not completely discounting the possibility of a bear market rally being spawned out of this DCL.

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  102. If the trading range doesn't get any bigger than what it has been today we have an inside day setting up on most of the index's

    .

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  104. WW

    By my count we are in the 5th of 5 waves down. Once this bottoms we "should" move into an a,b,c corrective wave up which should be the Bear rally you are suggesting.

    It's just a road map but it seems to fit the price action so far.

    Picking the bottom is the trick....

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  105. WMP,

    The 75sma did act as support, but Gold just broke below the 10sma support on a 5 min, I should say back below the 10sma after breaking above it (which supports a move higher into days end), which usually leads to a new low and breach of previous support.

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  106. The Bears are going out the window on this one......

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  107. So if the long was put on at 1675, it would have been taken off at a break of the 10sma support at around 1678 because of the indication that the move higher will not follow through. Its still a small gain.

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  108. DeMark update from Kevin Depew
    Gold - on Bar 8 of 9 of a Daily Setup which will record on Monday - good for a 1-4 day relief rally next week!
    Silver - beaten with a stick today! DAILY, we are on Bar 5 down of 13 for a Buy. The sell was recorded at the recent high, and was soon after confirmed bearish price flip (close below the close 4 bars earlier). WEEKLY made it to bar 12 of 13 but didn't get there - there had already been quite a few 13's already that didn't show any effect. WEEKLY support down at 27.53. MONTHLY - had a Sequential 13 in May where Depew started selling his silver. Support for MONTHLY all the way down at 17.06!
    SP made it through Bar 11 of DAILY BUY - today will record 12. But Depew is still expecting a new low somewhere between 1047 and 1076 (these are pit futures)
    WEEKLY Crude oil could qualify a downside break of 89.25 if the open on Monday is lower and one tick below the open. Target down is in the low 70's. So, that would be good for the consumer, eh?

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  109. Silver,

    You have a chart mapping that out...appreciate it?

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  110. who gives a rip!

    So now ur getting into just deleting my posts? Go check my record of old posts to see what I said and did. That is what proves my points and exposes ur assumptions about me as completely wrong.

    September

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  111. Basil,

    You are not telling the truth

    GO and create your own blog and instead of disturbing the peace here.

    your anger is not the result of actions here, your anger is within you. stop projecting your anger onto others. Bad form man, bad form.

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  113. Long GDXJ 76%, SSO 26%, DIG 8%*, DZZ x
    Cash 0%
    *New position
    xClosed position

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  114. I say it's about to print a DCL, shortly. Relief and false hope will come to those seeking it.

    On the flip side for those traders, probably a great very short term trade right here, something like NUGT, but you've got to have some "#@$#!" and be tight.

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  115. WW

    Will do.

    It's a bit of a dog's breakfast at the moment. Let me clean it up a bit.

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  116. I lost 1/3rd of my profit since July. Sold 2/3rds of my position this morning. Rolled some GDX options out to January. May try to catch a counter trend rally before we hit $1600.

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  117. 7 September, basil says...

    "If that D wave will never happen you just lost your positions in both silver and gold and will have to buy back much higher. Of course, there will be corrections to come, but 21 in silver and 1200 or whatever in gold - that's Prechter talk."

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  118. 2nd thought, you may be right Poly this may be the spot. Half way between $1500 and $1800

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  119. textbook hornswaggling by the operators this month.

    euro panic? SELL STOCKS BUY GOLD! global markets may crash! six sigma event something or other!

    guess who's on the other side of those trades.

    and obama hasn't even announced the 4% mortgage refi package yet- you know, the reason for the operation twist or whatever. hate to sound like beanie but immediate term that'll take a lot of pressure off the banks and a lot of new ipad money into people's pockets.

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  120. Basil,

    So where do you see the bottom coming in now?

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  121. Gary, are we buying Gold/Silver now or wait

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  122. I wish you the best of luck in your trading basil.

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  123. but why don't you place a stop at $27.90 in case you are wrong?

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  124. WW

    I can't get into photobucket to post a chart.

    I can email it to you if you like.

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  125. the 233 day in /gc is $1500 even.

    (200 day about 1525)

    i wouldn't start looking for a bottom until it's at least CLOSE to there. got another hundo to dropo at least.

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  126. Just saw $31 on silver....if were entering a deflationary period, the markets will continue to fall so I don't see how PMs could be bottoming right here, right now

    Theyve only been dropping for two days and now that's it? They go right back up? Possible, but find it hard to believe.

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  127. Mr M

    Haven't heard from you today? Hope all is well.

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  128. Right here SFGF, just logged on.
    Looks like my gold crown has gone down in value...

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  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  130. Not to make light of things but I hope Joseph Lemma was kidding 10 days ago when he said he was "all-in" on gold.

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  131. Gary,

    >The intermediate degree bottom isn't due until November. It should come with gold somewhere between 1300 and $1400.

    By saying that you are breaking the rule (so far true) that no INT low has gone below the previous EXCEPT for the 8yr cycle low.

    Not going below previous INT low on gold would mean we stop 1500-1600 zone.

    Is this rule simply a convenient observation or does it have merit. If it has merit or a believable cause then do your thoughts or the circumstances justify it breaking for this selloff.

    I personally find the holding of each previous low to be convincing.

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  132. WW

    ok gotit

    I'll shoot it through shortly

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  133. This is amazing, but next buy point for my 'catch a bottom or bounce' approach is actually coming up and might hit today. (on gold). Near 1600.

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  134. Miyagi,

    Dont you have any sympathy for those who are long gold...where's Joseph Lemma today?

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  135. TZ,

    This isn't amazing...this is reality, this is what happens when gold gets too stretched...im sure you look at charts.

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  136. Basil,
    Not long after you originally subscribed you started this rude behavior, and I'm not talking about debating investing, I'm talking about just plain being rude.

    At one point you expressed your desire to cancel your subscription. So I canceled your subscription and gave you a full refund even though you used several months of the subscription.

    Not long after that you resubscribed and promised to behave yourself. Well that lasted all of about one week.

    You apparently have no interest in contributing anything useful to the blog, all you want to do is point out missed calls.

    I have news for you everyone misses calls. It's the inherent risk in this business, and it's never going to change. Do you think we are all so stupid that we do not understand that?

    Of course you completely overlook all of the correct calls that have made us much more money than the missed calls.

    I have no idea why you have such a negative outlook on everything, but I'm going to ask you again, please take your negativity somewhere else it's just not welcome here.

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  137. TZ,
    might I suggest you wait until gold tags the 200 day moving average. That would be a more likely spot for a significant bounce especially if the dollar still has more upside than just trying to pick numbers out of the air.

    There needs to be an obvious level before enough players will attempt to pick a bottom. You might get it at 1575 but I think it's more likely at this point to occur at the 200 day moving average.

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  138. you guys are not prepared for six sigma event by selling your gold. Even thou you have better odds of getting struck by lightning you can never be too careful!

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  139. Gary,
    Don't fret it, the only basil I care about is the one going in my spaghetti sauce.

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  140. Silver down 6 dollars today! Thats simply a sight to behold.

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  141. PS. I second TZ's comment on the INT low being broken (1475)which is what I mentioned in the subscriber section too.

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  142. Ravsun,
    You are making the mistake of thinking that gold will protect you from a crisis. It will not. That was made clear to us in 2008.

    Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. We are not in an inflationary environment right now. We are in a deflation. That is driving the D-Wave, regression to the mean, profit-taking event.

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  143. Amazing how gold is getting crushed.

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  144. The 150sma is right at the previous IT high. Gold should get a nice bounce there if not a IT bottom.

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  145. Yes it is. This is what I knew would happen when the D-Wave began. This is what I wanted to avoid even at the expense of missing some of the upside.

    When you've been at this business as long as I have you understand what happens when something that looks like it has no downside risk starts to fall.

    All of those multitudes of buyers that thought they were safe start to panic. The panic starts to feed on itself and the selling accelerates. And because human emotions never change the selling goes way beyond fundamentals.

    Like I said a D-Wave is not about fundamentals it's about human emotions.

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  146. Gary ive been out of gold for a long time. I am just poking fun at some of the comments that ive heard over the past few weeks.

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  147. I'm going to start buying physical again next week. My hedges are not looking too hot today. Sigh

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  148. This will turn out worse than May for PM holders.

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  149. Gary, thanks for bounce-buying zone on gold, but I actually think the bounce point is here already (1630ish) if not maybe another $5-10 dollars lower.

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  150. Wow! This is just crazy! Kitco Silver low - $29.96!

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  151. Basil,

    My commentary is mostly reserved for the markets and don't care for the politics of the site, but you've clearly overstayed your welcome and making a fool of yourself only. Considering it's an anonymous site, that hard to do :)
    Of course Gary doesn't have that luxury.

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  152. Gold found support on the 100sma for now.

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  153. Willam Wallace
    well called, you've been calling this drop in miners for weeks and what a smack down we're seeing!

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  154. TZ,

    Looks to me that was it @ $1,631, might be a good place for your type of action.

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  155. SB is taking a beating. Sb doesn't like it.

    I'm hoping if I start referring to myself in the third person like some bigshots, I might get a respite from the whoopin' I'm taking. lol


    I'm starting to think $26/oz for phys silver I paid the other day was overpriced! :)

    Good luck fellas, stick with your plan.

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  156. Gary - at the rate Gold is falling, the D-wave bottom may not be too fall away :) May even arrive before mid to late November.

    So I guess this is how D-wave feels like? It feels like Armageddon.

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  157. At what point would AGQ decouple from silver? If silver were theoretically to hit $21, at the current ratio AGQ would go down another $80 to $35, is that realistic?

    Just curious.

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  158. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  159. Make no mistake this is a long way from being over. But gold will have a very convincing bounce out of the next daily cycle low that will draw many people back in before it rolls over into one more leg down.

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  160. Juniors are being absolutely dissaminated. They have erased full year profit in three days.

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  161. Poly,

    Yeah that was the 100sma support.

    TZ,

    The 10sma is confirming support now on a 5min for a short term move higher (and no not to $2000)

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  162. Silver has now pulled back roughly 50% of the entire bull move out of the '08 lows.

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  163. I wonder how Eric Sprott is feeling about now. He has 70% of his personal wealth in physical silver.

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  164. Gary,

    Are you discounting a gold bottom on the 150sma, as we have seen with every other IT low except the last?

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  165. Gary,
    Just listened to your interview now, feels like we had a jump on it here.
    Is that you shutting off your computer at 7:24?

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  166. Silerhound,,

    Considering hes worth over a billion dollars I don't think I'll be shedding a tear for him...

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  167. meanwhile when everyone is already looking for a gold entry again stocks are breaking out.

    the buy volume from the plunge wednesday has already almost been filled. perhaps by the EOD.

    luckily for me and the other 87 people worldwide who are long equity no one will ever notice.

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  168. >Looks to me that was it @ $1,631, might be a good place for your type of action

    I am/was expecting lower and have not purchased yet. Might have missed a bounce trade.

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  169. Gary - a while back, you wrote that after the 2012 4-year cycle low in stocks (in late 2012), you think the biotechnology will lead the climb in stocks. Can you share with us the reasoning? If it is of premium content, I can ask again in the premium website.

    Thanks in advance.

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  170. WW,
    None of those declines were a D-Wave. D-Wave's almost always test and often drop below the 200 day moving average.

    The magnitude and duration of the C wave virtually guarantee a D-Wave of similar magnitude. The last translation of this intermediate cycle confirms this.

    I think gold will probably be lucky if they can get away with only a 50% retracement.

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  171. @oa92000

    Call it stupid or what have you but I rode that ZSL and boy does it feel good!

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  172. I just think the next new paradigm shift in the world will come from the biotech industry. Something similar to the personal computer and the Internet of the 80s and 90s.

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  173. Good move on the ZSL....



    Danno said...
    Monday morning at the open I adjusted my silver hedge from:

    AGQ 200
    ZSL 600

    to...

    AGQ 200
    ZSL 1500

    The goal is to take advantage of any breakdown in silver (which is looking very possible if not probable) while keeping a healthy long position just in case silver unexpectedly explodes to the upside. It may not be a perfect plan, but I'm comfortable with it.

    Good luck all.

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  174. Curious if anyone buying to play this bounce in PMs? Bounce in silver will probably be huge. Not my type of game but curious.

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  175. Sprott knows his time is yet to come. However, those Central Banks who loaded gold around 1700...they must be freaking out by know..

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  176. Gary,
    In biotech, how much employment can be created? It is a very specialized field.

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  177. The only reason to buy now in either precious metals or stocks is if you think the dollar has put in its daily cycle top after only five days.

    That seems very unlikely in a cyclical bull market, and one that is only at the very beginning of a second daily cycle.

    We probably still have one or two more weeks of this, although that doesn't mean we can't have an up day occasionally.

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  178. The same thing was said for the personal computer at the beginning.

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  179. Dan - I am not buying the precious metal bounce until Gary calls a bottom. Preserving cash at the moment.

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  180. how can silver take a beating like this and the bull still be alive?

    50 to 20 is no joke...

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  181. Silver took a worse beating in 2008. Was that the end of the bull?

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  182. Gary,

    I know those were just IT lows... and not D-waves, I was just wondering what contitutes this a D-wave other than the fact that gold was so stretched above the 200. Im thinking maybe the possibility of another IT low and gold just continuing to move on.

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  183. Gary:

    Isn't it possible that the dollar is putting in a daily cycle top now (vs. bottoming last week)? I know the timing and the move over the last few days suggests the low was put in already, but unlike previous daily cycle lows the 5-day RSI didn’t get anywhere near oversold. The current dollar action resembles the big move out of the May daily cycle low, with an initial move up, pullback, new highs, and then a clearer move into a low with a 5-day RSI in oversold territory.

    ReplyDelete

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