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Saturday, September 24, 2011

THE D-WAVE BEGINS

It's taken much longer than I originally expected, but we now have confirmation that gold's D-Wave decline has begun.

A D-Wave decline is a normal, regression to the mean, profit-taking event that occurs when gold gets too stretched above the mean. It is not a take down by an anti-gold cartel. Anyone with a modicum of common sense can look at the long-term chart of gold and tell that this is not a manipulated market. This is just a normal secular bull market, and it is acting exactly like a normal bull market acts.



Folks, these conspiracy theories are now bordering on the insane. I even heard the other day someone blame margin increases for the drop in gold. I guess they completely forgot that we've already had two margin increases in the last two months that had virtually no effect on gold.




Every bull market in history has its share of con men and scam artists. Think Bernie Madoff, Enron, WorldCom, etc. The gold manipulation nonsense is just one of the many scams that are going to hitch a ride on this bull. Actually it's one of the oldest scams in the book. You find a bull market, make a one-way bet on rising prices, tout these "to the moon" prices to suck in subscribers lured by the reward of gigantic financial gains, and then blame an invisible cartel every time a correction occurs that you don't foresee. It's a great way of not having to take responsibility when subscribers get caught in a normal corrective decline.

Needless to say I don't play those kind of games. I try to get subscribers out ahead of intermediate declines. Yes, I'm usually a little early. I have the same problem with tops that every other human being in the world has. They are virtually impossible to call in real time. Subscribers to the SMT newsletter have sidestepped all of this D-Wave decline and instead have been 100% invested in the dollar index. The only asset initiating a strong trend higher.

Actually there is a fundamental reason for a D-Wave decline besides just a normal regression to the mean, profit-taking event. The dollar has now moved into the aggressive stage of the rally out of the three year cycle low. Deflation is starting to take hold in the world again. In a deflation defaulting debt collapses the money supply. There is a growing shortage of dollars in the world. That's the reason why the dollar index is rocketing higher. As the value of the dollar rises during this deflation it takes less and less of them to buy an ounce of gold. You can see this same process unfolded as the dollar rallied out of the 2008 three year cycle low.



On a much shorter timescale gold is now in the timing band for a daily cycle low. My best guess is that sometime over the next 1 to 2 weeks gold will move down to tag the 200 day moving average. That will trigger short covering and a very convincing snapback rally. However it's still too early for an intermediate degree bottom. There should be one more daily cycle down into November before the D-Wave puts in its final bottom.



I suspect the next daily cycle is going to be a volatile nightmare that will chew up bulls and bears alike before a final plunge down below the 200 day moving average somewhere between $1300-$1400. As all D-Wave declines have retraced at least 50 to 60% of the previous C-wave advance that would be a minimum target for the November bottom. At that point we should see a very powerful A-wave advance triggered by the extreme oversold conditions generated at the D-Wave bottom. More in the weekend report...

For the next week I am going to open a special $5 trial subscription. You will have complete access to the premium website, archives, model portfolio, etc. You can sample the premium newsletter for a week. If you decide you like the content your subscription will automatically renew on October 1 as a yearly subscription. If you decide you don't want to continue the subscription just follow the directions on the home page of the website to cancel your subscription before October 1.

Click here to go to the premium website then click on the subscribe link on the right-hand side of the page. You will see the special offer at the bottom of the subscription page. Offer has expired

403 comments:

  1. Damn, Eamonn, I nearly beat you this time...

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  2. Harry, I've no idea why I get there first

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  3. looks like Greek default talk is gaining momentum amongst the European officials. The word "default" is no longer a dirty word amongst them, even in public.
    Anyone care the guess the sequence of events that would follow a default?

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  4. http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold_24.html

    I am open to the idea that gold may break support,so would only buy on reversal


    http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-death-zone-rally.html

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  5. "If you want to put an end to government spending, don’t pay our
    president, senators, and representatives a salary. Give them 10
    percent of our tax refunds every year. In three months, the entire
    federal bureaucracy would be run out of a windowless basement
    in Georgetown, by a ninety-year old guy named Frankie with an
    unlisted rotary dial phone."

    Dennis Miller, Humorist

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  6. "Some people actually believe government can create jobs by taxing and
    borrowing from people with jobs and then giving that money to people without
    jobs. They call this demand stimulus. It seems perfectly natural to some that
    government would tax people who work or companies that are successful only
    to give that money to people who don’t work and to bail out losing companies.
    The thought never crosses their minds that these policies are the very reason
    why our economy is in such bad shape. Irving Kristol was correct when he
    wrote, "It takes a PhD in economics not to be able to understand the obvious."

    From the latest Dines Letter. What Beanie needs to understand.

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. For those stuck in PM long positions there might be an opportunity to sell covered calls at the height of the snap back rally and use that money to buy puts on PMs or calls on UUP. Just a thought. But I'd only sell the covered calls if you can sell them at strike prices near the price you originally paid for your shares.

    You might not get a lot of income for the covered calls, but you may still receive a couple hundred dollars or more (depending on the volatility of your PM shares) per covered call. That's not so bad for free money and an opportunity to buy calls on the dollar for free.

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  10. Harry

    You were not close. Your time stamp was 5 min off of eamonn

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  11. Anyone have any thoughts on the Dines Letter? I was thinking of subscribing but it's so expensive I can't imagine it'd be a better from a cost/benefit standpoint than Gary or Doc.

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  12. Well this movie looks to be coming out right on time (release date Oct21st) for our "November to Remember" -- www.margincallmovie.com

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  13. Gary,
    Get real there is intervention in all markets as the past few weeks have shown.You name the market and the Fed, central banks ,and god knows who else come in to manipulate the markets.Our government has admitted in comes in to push the markets higher ( PPT )Last Thursady the dow was down over $500 with twenty minutes to go and out of the blue they rally for over two hundred points.Just look at the currency markets ,could any market be as manipulated as they are ,where have you been ?
    To say there is no manipulation in gold/silver is just nuts--as I said all markets are manipulated ,there are no free markets anymore .

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  14. The Fed certainly prints money with the intention of inflating asset markets, but the Fed can't direct where that liquidity flows. It's why commodities continue to rise, to the Fed's chagrin.

    But there is no active manipulation in the precious metal sector other than what might occur on a very temporary basis around options expiration.

    But if you feel the need to fall victim to the con men and scam artists so you have an excuse for why markets act the way they do then be my guest.

    I prefer to just deal with reality and accept that a bull market is probably going to act like a bull market and trade accordingly.

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  15. I agree with Gary that these sharp pullbacks have little or nothing to do with manipulation. Would governments (or whomever) like to see the price of gold suppressed overall as long as possible? I don't know. I suppose that is possible. But these occasional profit taking sell offs are not manipulation. Anyone here who sold their PM positions before or during this plunge actively contributed to the fall in prices. So are you are a dark seed minion of the cabal? Of course not.

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  16. if europe decides to default vs. print that would put the kibosh on this dollar rally, in theory. right now the dollar is assuming they'll print.

    regardless i'm still not convinced this rally in the dollar will play out like 08 in terms of its affect on asset classes. when even the swiss are kneecapping their currency, a rally in the fx markets does not necessarily translate to asset deflation.

    here is what you should be looking at: http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

    you'll notice a very steep dive in the 'synthetic cpi' beginning around 9/08. THAT was deflation and it took everything down with it.

    but what was happening during the 12/09-6/10 dollar rally? the CPI *gradually* dipped for a few weeks then continued to rise, stocks went nowhere (well they rallied at 10% at first then lost it all in the flash crash), and gold lost about 10% in its d-wave but by the time the dollar finished rallying it was up ~.4% from the tippy top.

    not to mention that this rally in the dollar is starting from a lower low--and not a higher low--than the previous one.

    so i would not be so quick to assume any assets are going to be falling much further until we see the CPI fall and legitimate deflation return. and that remains to be seen.

    in particular, while i think gold still has some ways to go to revert properly, since stocks are BELOW their 233 day i think they have considerable upside potential at these levels. again, when the last dollar rally hit they were some 19% over their 233 day and STILL gained 10%. currently they are 10% below it. not that they won't even make a new low here.. but there is an active buyer out there who has been loading up.

    again, this chart which i will scream from the rooftops night and day- /es on the left and /gc on the right with effective volume in the subgraph

    http://i55.tinypic.com/2ewi5co.png

    it correctly predicted problems in gold at the second peak.

    it even predicted the dollar rally via the accumulation all through august http://i55.tinypic.com/10qw0zq.png

    now it is predicting a rally in stocks.

    just my 5 cents or however much that took away from your life! i know it sounds bonkers but something is afoot here.

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  17. I have to say your volume strategies just plain haven't worked. You might want to jettison that strategy and try something else because it is just causing you to lose money.

    That being said stocks are moving into the timing band for a rally. We just need to get the "news" that they have been discounting. I don't know whether that will be a Greek default or a negative print on the employment report or something entirely different.

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  18. The twist is the Margin increase. How and when during the C wave when it might trigger a selling event (May for silver) or when it can push it over the edge.

    The fuel is there. Sometimes you just need a match.

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  19. The SF Giants were eliminated from the playoffs today ;-(((

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  20. What are you looking at on these charts to say they are predicting something? Volume cross? Volume + price cross?

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  21. DINES letter

    I am a subscriber and honestly, I don't even read the reports.

    You reminded me to make sure they don't auto charge me.

    Their report is hard to go through and has a maze of individual stocks and companies to choose.

    The reason I went for it was for uranium and rare earth strategies but look at how they got decimated (DNN).


    Who has time to pick one and watch it carefully. SVM anyone??

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  22. Rob L, you asked where I learned what I know about charts.

    I learned one chart pattern via a commodity broker which was used by a client of his. I didn't believe it could work. I backtested by buying all the tick data then available, 20+ yrs ago, having software written for me which allowed me to read it (now, it's all free from outfits like Trade Station, with overlays, too), and I printed out the S&P and Gold in every time frame I could stomach looking at, most valuable being in the 5 min chart. Years of time, all in front of me, and then I printed them multiply until I could see every pattern over as much time as then tick data had available.

    Then I classified them by pattern, pattern being 3 to 4 ticks, and then 7 to 10 ticks, and in every way I thought there might be a pattern. I looked at them from the point of view of percentage move based on the then value of the market. This took months and months of full time effort. I still couldn't believe them.

    I studied and ascribe to Fibonacci. But those are just goals, with no reason why any retracement percentage would be more compelling than the next.

    With Gary's and Alex's and the rare cycle posting by Poly, I get an indicator of which percentage may be the target. But I've no ability to trust anyone with any decision involving my financial welfare; recently I carped that I surrendered my decision to influence by Gary and he lashed back. That was bracing, and cauterizing. I then promised I'll play my own game my way and own the consequences.

    My advice to you? Look at the data without anyone's influence. See the patterns (I'm ADHD, so I have an advantage) if you can. Look at cycles; look at their patterns; they repeat. WW says he knows the fruit tree pattern. You can see the precollapse of gold on the right shoulder slump pattern on the one hour chart which is what he probably saw, too.

    Find a few things that have high probability based on back tests. Then add those, plus Gary's and Poly's and those of 2-3 others here. And use those as checks against your own belief, but merely as checks. What you will know, you will know.

    I want validation. But I'm cauterized. I just like to post what I see. I don't often read the responses. And I'm right only when I see clear patterns I know and state them here.

    Hours and weeks and months of study will IMO yield maybe 10 approahces, be they cycles rules or patterns you trust. Gary shares his in the Premium site. I no longer have time to do what needs be done, a backtest of his statements. If you have time, backtest those.

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  23. For any Tim Wood fans

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/22654/dow-theory-update

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  24. By using the Dow instead of the S&P Tim comes to completely wrong conclusions. The secular bull ended in 2000. PE's ratios began to contract at that point.

    This will be the third leg down in the secular bear, not the second. And there is a very good chance the low in 2012 will mark a secular bear market bottom.

    Tim is making the same mistake a lot of people make by trying to compare the present with the past. This isn't the 70's and the fundamentals are completely different.

    Tim missed virtually the entire run in gold the last couple of years because he was trying to compare stats from other periods and ignored the fundamentals driving the gold market.

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  25. Slumdog,

    Thank you for the detailed answer!

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  26. Think only scientists can come up with bio breakthroughs? An excerpt from this article shows what scientists could not do in 10 years and gamers could in 3 weeks.

    "When someone whines that your playing video games is a waste of time, tell them you’re doing it for science. Researchers at the University of Washington have successfully leveraged the power of gamers to solve a biochemical puzzle: the structure of a complex protein related to the development of AIDS. By playing an online game called Foldit, teams of average citizens were able to make a breakthrough discovery in how this protein was shaped even though scientists had stumbled over the question for more than a decade. A combination of computer-created predictions and human 3D spatial reasoning transforms simple game playing into a mighty problem solving engine."

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  27. gary,

    first thanks for your work, I think highly of it.

    With regard to tim wood, I must come to his defense. Tim's conclusions are primarily based on the fact that both the dow and tran made new highs in 2007, and therefore based on dow theory that could NOT have been part of a secular bear market. Thus, 2007 was THE top of the old bull. I am NOT saying i agree with this, but within the context of Dow theory, he is correct. you can of course disagree with the theory. Personally, I see 2000 vs 2007 as similar to the duality of light(wave vs particle). In some ways 2000 was the top(PEs, gold bull began etc) and in other ways 2007 seems to be the top. It is similar to discussing whether 1975 or 1982 was the bottom of the prior bear, one could argue both ways and I think it is both.

    Regarding manipulation, I do not invest based on it, as I do not think the primary trend of a substance can be changed. However, in the short term, bia afterhours SPY action and HFTs, equities are manipulated, and I think GATA has some very good evidence of central bank manipulation of gold, which pronounced the prior bear in gold i think. Please keep an open mind as when you read their stuff, they are NOT lunatics, much of it seems irrefutable.

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  28. If a con doesn't seem irrefutable then no one would believe it :)

    The government has no need to manipulate gold. It is irrelevant. What they need to manipulate is oil. They can't do that either though.

    The fundamentals behind a true bull market will overwhelm any manipulation attempt other than in the very short term, which of course is meaningless unless you are a day trader.

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  29. Gary,
    "That being said stocks are moving into the timing band for a rally."
    What timeframe do you figure on this because, unless I am wrong, you were expecting a decline closer to the 1100 mark before a bounce.

    A note to those who are thinking of subscribing, the 5$ offer is a gift, a steal.

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  30. A broker told me someone in England was/is trying to cornner coco and is getting crushed right now
    Supposedly he owns 15% of the marke

    He should have followed gary

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  31. The price of gold in US dollars is tied to the perceived value of the US dollar. This also interconnects with the price of oil in US dollars. The US uses its military to install and prop gov mafia regimes amenable to selling their country's oil in US dollars (Central Bank welfare/warfare model). The US gets this oil (and not just oil) basically for free, because its basic expense in paying in US dollars is the cost of the paper or digital credit. It would be very easy to disrupt this arrangement by simply undermining the corrupt regimes that sell their resources and transact in US dollars, or undermining the US military and it ability project imperial power.

    The "con" is the perception that US petrodollar imperialism is invincible. US propaganda hegemony and therefore military and economic hegemony is coming to an end. Sooner than what most people might think.

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  32. I think Gary is the head manipulator. That's why his calls are the best

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  33. http://www.grandich.com/

    Found this guy a few days ago.

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  34. Gary in a D-wave is there a price level that the price will not rise above as it works it way down (that is the last peak 1930s or the last DCL print 1705)? Asked the question on the premium site if you want to answer there.

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  35. Sf

    Should re read Gary's bio on his search for holy grail. we would all be better off to stop searching and read/follow Gary.

    I took PG once---a big mistake.

    g/l

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  36. gary,

    For kicks, try writing to a letter to a central bank or two inquiring about gold, gold swaps, gold leases, or gold storage etc and see what they say. I assure you they will say national security, no comment or ignore you. They act REALLY weird when it comes to anything gold, and that in itself is highly suspicious to me.

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  37. Wolf33

    Peter Grandich is on Gary's blog list.

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  38. About Miners, does anyone know any reason for the impressive correction of NG, in adition to Golds correction? Very scary fall of NG!!!!

    Thks

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  39. "Art of short term damage control and perception management"

    Or

    "9/25: King World News cheerleaders vs Cycles theory" continued....



    Been waiting till Sunday to see how KWN news would squirm out of last weeks PM "mess" after having consistently touted (James Turk) of >2100$ in summer and Oct.


    Well, talk about sophisticated communications and sales technology- here are the summary strategies that one can apply to any situation:



    1) Acknowledge immediately "the mess" but not necessarily you had been wrong SHORT TERM.
    Then immediately divert attention to another ongoing crisis (Europe) and emphasize the big picture ("system is broken")


    2) Attribute "mess" to something everyone is familiar with (volatility) and discuss specific past example (tech bubble volatility).


    3) Re-emphasize at least one key message that you have been touting /no one can deny and why it's all the more important now ("dollar cost averaging in PMs").


    4) Throw in some brilliant and catchy analogies to stir up imagination "world is like wobbling top just before it stops spinning" and "T-bonds are as safe as Pearl Harbor").


    Throw in an additional line to stir the emotions ("manipulaton of PMs" for extra icing and keep the paranoid crowd hooked.



    5) Throw in SPECIFIC details that perhaps only yourself (European residing James Turk) has access to (German government risks) to maintain confidence that you do indeed have frontline data.


    6) Ratchet up and throw in a profound projection ("this may be worse than 2008")



    7) ...with a profound BIG PICTURE explanation which is inline with your agenda ("2008 was a liquidity factor - this time it will be a "safety" factor)


    8) END with a short term projection that has high probability of being met (expect a "sharp rally in metals this week")



    Disclaimer: I am James Turk customer (goldmoney) and reason for my obsession with monitoring these guys is partly for fun but also ever since Gary mentioned "scam artists/sophisticated marketing", I am trying to see if KWN falls into that category.


    Personally, I felt good after the clip but let's see if gold breaches the 200dma in Oct/Nov.



    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/9/25_James_Turk_files/James%20Turk%209%3A25%3A2011.mp3

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  40. I'd add that I'm very interested in buying almost any commodity when the CRB pulls back to around 285 or so, or when copper gets below 2.90

    For now, it looks like I have some rough sledding ahead with my miners. I'm holding firm, but don't see much to do until we washout to those levels.

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  41. Slumdog,

    Thank you for your Friday evening's reply.



    James

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  42. SB, are you holding the miners or do you have stops in place that will you get stopped out if miners reach those levels?
    What levels can we expect for the HUI/GDX?
    I hope we get a small bounce this week in order to sell a part of my miners. I'm sitting on a large pile of losing miners now, too many for holding through this D-wave, I guess.
    I was surprised to see miners take such a hit, as they hadn't gone up like gold did.

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  43. Wolf33,

    You said, "Should re read Gary's bio on his search for holy grail."

    Where can I find that?

    Le Fou

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  44. MrMyagi,
    do you know anything about construction, and if so can I send you a mail?

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  45. Gary,

    Good call on GOLD.

    Dont agree with your call on USD though. Coincidental that the USD began its appreciation at abt the same time as the sovereign debt situation in EUR became viral /widespread with the stock markets recognising same and destroying wealth through that mechanism. At this point there is no debt destruction only an implied one through default. USD appreciation is the equivalent of EUR depreciation. Fix the debt problem in EUR and the USD resumes the downward trajectory. Granted the bounce off the 3 yr low is a cycle trend (read needed to occur), the CB's and the western govts will be hell bent on protecting their interests and that of the elitists. We cannot discount money printing in this environment from the ECB or the FED or both. Deflation (destruction of money supply) will not be possible or feasible when the "ONLY" desirable outcome is inflation and lower currencies. Although politically difficult, the master B will have his finger poised to press the start button.An engineered "market" adjustment is taking the same shape as what it did last time around. Let the market falter, ring the bell. time to print.
    I have no doubt that the path ahead is an inflationary one.
    We all know that debt destruction is one solution to the world financial problems. Inflation is another solution.
    You cannot argue with the point that inflation encourages growth and therefore stimulates interest rates. AND YES we all know that the last 2 attempts at QE achieved ZERO. Deflation on the other hand is destructive. In an environment such as the one that exists in the world today, you have limited growth out of the US and little to none out of EUR (except GERMANY). Asia is steaming ahead. An abrupt deflationary environment does not bode well for western economies when the base is already very weak.
    A key to the US stabilizing is the housing market. The stimulus for growth in the USA will only be achieved once housing has a solid foundation. The US economy is 75% consumer based. Free up the consumers from their debt burdens and voila.....growth.
    So dollar rally, money printing, dollar decline, stocks up.
    We cannot discount the amount of external debt the govt is carrying. Nothing there has changed. So the value of the USD needs to fully recognise that. So too does the price of GOLD. You cannot tell me that the US in no less likely to default than the periphery of Europe.
    Agree very volatile times indeed.
    Your thoughts and comments are always welcome and taken on board with other insightful data.
    What is clearly evident is wealth/capital preservation and staying liquid to avail of opportunities or to simply ride out the market gyrations in preparedness for better times.

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  46. Actually inflation does not equal growth. That is one of the basic flaws with Keynesian economics. We've just seen two years of inflation and it created no growth. It just created commodity inflation which destroyed the economy once it got too high exactly as I predicted it would over two years ago.

    This is the same process that played out in the 70's.

    It's simply not possible to "print" prosperity. The world doesn't work that way.

    Trust me this is not an engineered take down. This is an expected move down that cycles told us was coming, and that I have been predicting for months.

    The dollar rally is because deflation is taking hold again. The global economy is rolling over into recession. That is massively deflationary. That is the reason for the dollars rise and deflating asset prices.

    The summer of 10 the dollar rose mostly because the Euro was being debased although we did get a mild whiff of deflation. This is entirely different.

    This is a global economic contraction that is getting underway. Trust me the powers that be will do everything in their power to stop it and they certainly didn't initiate it. It is ultimately going to cost most politicians their job.

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  47. To holders of 2x EFTs. Just a reminder..

    If the underlying commodity moves 50% in one day, your 2x ETF could go to ZERO. Or so close to zero that they might shut down the ETF and your position would still essentially be wiped out.

    So if you're going to mess with 2x ETFs, I would suggest carrying some kind of bet the other direction (hedge) because a stop loss may not save you in an event like that.

    A rise or fall of 50% in a commodity is very unlikely in a single day. But are you willing to bet your account on it? I'm not.

    The danger is even worse for 3x ETFs.

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  48. Looks the big boys that didn't get out of gold and silver on Friday are getting out now.
    Platinum is getting clocked also.

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  49. Danno - I think Gary mentioned multiple times that leverage can be a quick way to destroy one's portfolio. So sounds like these 2 x ETF are scary things.

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  50. Manipulation: Central Banks may manipulate the price of gold, unlike oil, because it is one thing they can all agree on and therefore manipulate; albeit with temporary success. Everything is temporary in this world; they only need enough time to cycle to some next phase. Didn't Jesse's Cafe just post a quote from Volker about wanting to manipulate the gold price? Personally, I don't really care since it's not worth my time delving into all the details to prove manipulation either way.

    KWN is obviously obviously a gold permabull. There are a handful of people I like there. Jim Rickards is one of the best macro analysts out there IMO. He was talking about operation twist 6 months or a year ago saying there would clearly be no QE3, with an in depth explanation. Places like this were saying QE3 was coming in August. Hathaway, Fleckenstein, and Rick Rule are also good.

    I'm going all in on a break below $1500. I believe the A-B-C-D pattern will break with or without this being the final phase of gold. This is no Nasdaq or housing bubble. People are slowly recognizing this might be as bad as the late 70s to early 80s. Then comes recognition that its 1930s bad, and finally collapse of Rome bad. Currently hold a small gold long position and stock short position in my trading account.

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  51. Eamonn,
    I only know what I know because of the extensive work I have done on our 2 houses. I'll try to answer so go ahead slantyagi@gmail.com

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  53. Interesting perspective on gold's pullback

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/roque-on-golds-pullback/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

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  54. Gold is continuing its slow grind lower tonight...I wouldn't be suprised to see it tag the 150sma tomorrow and mark the DCL if it loses the 100sma tonight.

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  55. BTW...the 150sma is at the previous intermedite cycle high of 1577.

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  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  57. A strong daily bounce off the 100sma ($1630) will most likely hit resistance around the 1710 level.

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  58. Mr M

    I found the video for you on youtube.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbgtE8urKhE&feature=channel_video_title

    Solution for the worlds problems.

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  59. WW, I'm going to be looking at that 1577 mark as well...nice battle at 1630 for quite awhile tonight until it gave it up just past 9:15 PST. Nice drop has transpired. Hope all is well.

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  60. sf---on my list as well. starts with S

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  61. I'm long here some gold futures for a bounce.

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  62. The market still hasn't broken down yet. When I see AAPL, AZO and MCD at near all time highs then I suspect we have more downside. But who knows, maybe the Fed will step in with their PPT and prop up the market...

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  63. Gary,
    Let me get this clear.

    You say the powers that be, have no part in the market movements ?

    AND

    The USD rally is the result of deflationary forces ?

    I want to pose some further observations here.

    If the fed (actually Ben) categorically state that their intervention via QE was to prop up the market (preserve wealth), then cant we assume that knowledge of its unwinding would have the opposite effect. Isnt that tantamount to manipulation ? Call it action or inaction ....in either event you have culpability.

    Concurrently once the printing press is put on pause, doesnt that in itself project to the market that asset prices are not being supported. Market was in denial until the death knell (no QEIII).
    Also tells the market that USD freefall is done (needs to put in a low). The chart of the USD coincidentally rhymes with the "FACT".

    Here we have a confluence of market forces.

    Dollar rally was inevitable when the FED (and congress)said NO.
    Dollar rally when "Sovereign debt" becomes a real default proposition.
    Market support ended when the FED said NO and default on the agenda.

    Agree that the printing of money was not in itself stimulatory in its effects. The side effects (commodity inflation) was IMHO a known. You cant print money and hand it to the gamblers without them gambling.

    Here is some food for thought. Money goes to Banksters on precondition that same is used for the commodity play. Who is the biggest user/consumer of commodities (excluding USA)in the world and who holds the most US external debt?

    What is evidently clear, aside from the monumental failure to arrive at any sustainable growth, was the capitalisation of BANKS and through that, the opportunity lost/misplaced/misdirected. The governments and CB's still haven't found an acceptable way to funnel the money into the hands of the consumer while simultaneously reducing their debt.

    What is patently clear is the undeniable distaste to accept debt destruction and deflation.

    When such is presented to ruling powers, the clear path to resolution/finality is inflation. Deflation, as you point out, may be short term, but going out two years from now the bond market is saying that we are in for one helluva hiding on interest rates and inflation. If its one bubble that has fallen under the radar then the BOND market is IT. Lambs to the slaughter all over again.

    Currency debasement is not entirely off the agenda. Lets call it "fall hiatus".

    The Euro, USD, CHF ,JPY ,GBP all being debased for the "good of all". This will get ugly. Currency wars lead to trade wars lead to protectionism. The non participant....RMB/CNY. They dont want to party with others, they have their own party that is going on in their part of town and they are keeping it tight.

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  64. Holy cannoli! Silver below where "we" bought in January!

    (Who's keeping that old list of "how low can you go?")

    Wow.

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  65. WW,

    I see you're on Long Island. You can just pop out and get some!

    Now I'm hungry . . .

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  66. Stopped out less than 1% loss. Very weak here. There should be SOME boucing, but we just aren't getting it for now at least. Surprising (of course not based on gary's comments, but I'm doing my own thing here a few times...and paying for it a bit.)

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  67. Dec silver contract got all the way to 28.06 already. I was planning on waiting a few months to start buying physical again, but at this rate...

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  68. TZ,

    Can you tell me how to open a futures account (which broker)?

    thanks

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  69. Wow, Silver is going thru big figues like in butter!
    Truely amazing evening!

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  70. Looking for silver to tag the $26.50 area.

    A 100% retracement of the drive that started on Jan 25 2011.

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  71. Using RSI measurement, this silver drop is WORSE than the main one off the $50 peak. Really amazing.

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  72. If this falling fruit pattern continues as normal gold may even tag the 200sma today, making this a $140 down day.

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  73. Jeeze.... Gold in the 1500's again and Silver in the 27's

    Wow!

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  74. You know, the consistent mercilous drops here make me think some funds are blowing up or something. Bodies may start floating to the surface soon.

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  75. It looks like one or more entities are hemmoraging and HAVE to get out at all costs. And I'm sure the bullion banks are chasing them down. Wow.

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  76. Good call Gary! Everybody missed this drop.

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  77. Below the 200sma is the C-wave lower trendline around the 1485 level.

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  78. WW,

    Is this falling fruit pattern an actual name for the pattern? I tried Googling it and all I found was trees that had falling apples.

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  79. Miner open tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath if these prices hold. Not only do you have the overnight drops, but you also have the slowpokes who got crushed last week, but didn't do any selling (and got the chance to think it over over the weekend), who will now panic like crazy at the the open.

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  80. The big money is about to start pouring into the Dollar.

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  81. And the ones who don't will and the next sizable rally.

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  82. D waves are supposed to last 4-6 weeks.... Not 4-6 days.

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  83. It just keeps going. Incredible!

    I remember months ago thinking I'd buy silver at $26, following the D-wave. That's 15 cents from here! (Probably breached whilst I write.)

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  84. Gary has been calling the CRB bottom later this fall for a long time. Cycles anybody?

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  85. Rob L,

    The falling fruit is a name I have applied to a certain type of pattern that I found trading and watching futures for hours upon hours, day and night for several months. Its best seen in a 5 min chart, but unfortunately I seen it form on a daily chart, being this top and drop, this is what made me pull out of miners before the stops were triggered and I haven't been long futures since. It plays on simple moving averages and obeys them immediately.

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  86. Anyone buying in the morning?

    I'm thinking buying a few shares of AGQ for a day trade

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  87. Nice one, AKA!
    Maybe this is a Z wave.

    Glad you got stopped out, TZ.

    Oh my, I should to bed and be ready for the show in the a.m. So bloody nice to be in the balcony, and not on stage for this one!

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  88. I'm tempted too, James.

    I'm trying to figure the deterioration: AGQ open around $80-85 at these levels? Geesh!!

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  89. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  90. Gold is bouncing now, first red candle on a 5 min closed on the 150sma and the following green candle has now bounced right of the 150sma on a daily. This will not hold unless the 10sma on a 5 min chart swoops below this bounce and supports and confirms a bounce, if the 10sma cannot get under the move it will fail for sure.

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  91. If you wait for Gary's call you will have more money for the real bottom instead of less. He will call it.

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  92. WW,

    I agree with you that we might now actually have a bounce point. The drop got emotional and I was just starting going 'wow' and completely unwilling to buy anything.

    That's usually a sign.

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  93. Im sorry, correction.. I meant the 120sma.

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  94. TZ,

    We are bouncing off the 120 but if you plan on buying wait and see if the 10sma on a 5 min confirms the move higher. If it moves above the 10 and then breaks down we will make new lows.

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  95. Polishing my metal gloves this evening.

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  96. I am guessing we will tomorrow W.W.

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  97. Dont forget, the dollar futures are pushing higher right now, and the markets are breaking down...this is pressuring gold

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  98. TZ,

    You see how it didnt break above the 10sma on a 5 min, gold smacked its head on the 10 and brokedown...now new lows

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  99. Expect a tag of the 150sma now on a daily.

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  100. Time for bed...goodnight all. Battle on the 120sma right now...may hold, if not look for a tag of the 150sma for a decent bounce and possible DCL.

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  101. Me too. Should be in bed already.

    Good luck all.

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  102. WW,

    I'm not buying anything. My previous buypoints broke WAY too quickly and I'm gonna watch a bit.

    As they say...when you don't know what is going on (or when what you are doing isn't working). Get out.

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  103. Gary:

    Is this drop in Gold unfolding much faster than you had imagined? At this rate, it looks like the D-wave be over sooner than mid November! Blood on the streets – thanks for getting us out!

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  104. At the rate that the fruit is falling gold may not get a bounce until it hits the c-wave lower trendline.

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  105. Over 8000 contracts in 10 minutes. Big volume spikes down or up like that usually mark short term bottoms and tops.

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  106. Slumdog might be right...1530 and then bounce...

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  107. W2,

    Do you think that we will revisit 1535-40 this morning?
    Or we rebound straight from here?

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  108. Wow 1615 now...what a crazy market!

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  109. And while y'all are sleeping Au is back to 1628 at 04:21 EDT.

    This volatility is a bit much.... Even for calm types like myself.

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  110. Gold did the 100 pt drop. and it's setting up now on the hourly for a 90 pt run to 1723 or a drop to 1450.

    Does anyone know what the direction will be over the next few hours?

    I've posted the high probability numbers, above. But I can't see which way it's going. On the hourly, the market has reversed off of 1535. But I can't see clearly. That gap in the GCPit on Friday is a delicious target. So, that's where I think it's going today, as soon as the panicked weakhands leave. I think the market will mark time for the next 3-4 hours waiting for the US traders to awaken and panic out. Margin calls, etc. But the direction is a recovery bounce when the weakhands are gone.

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  111. Thanks Slumdog!
    I have missed the bottom this morning ( school run) and I am pretty frustrated as you nailed it on Friday!
    Good trading to you and thanks for your help

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  112. Gold 1612, price isn't moving though on the 30 min, there's huge pressure to the upside. So, morning I'll guess will find the market diving back to a double bottom 1535 range leading to the bounce with nobody on the rise. Excellent clock cleaning for the newbies and overeager traders. That's my guess, double bottom and that will panic the herd, making profits free as soon as they're gone. Gotta hit the hay. Biz done in China, free to rack out for 4 hours.

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  113. This is crazy, anybody who was long hasnt had one shot to get out on a bounce.

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  114. Silver 2011 is still tracking silver 2008. If that continues there could be 4-5 counter trend rallies before the ultimate bottom is discovered in about 2 1/2 months. Some of the rallies in 2008 lasted over 2 weeks each, including one monster rally (the 2nd rally) that lasted 2 1/2 weeks.

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  115. Gold Futures darn near tagged the 200 sma overnight.

    http://screencast.com/t/mLwQT2MRix

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  116. quite tempted to sell some Nasdaq at those levels 2230ish...

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  117. paul,

    Yes I'm still in my miners. My stop is based on overall portfolio drawdown, where if I lose a certain % on all combined positions I will be forced to sell them all.

    As bad as things look, and the fact I look primed for another drubbing today, I'm staying Old Turkey. Only way I'd change that is if I thought something had really changed, other than prices.

    I'm hoping I have the fortitude to see this through the next several weeks, but selling here is not an option for me. If anything, I'm patiently looking to dial up my total risk another 2.5 to 3%, bringing me to my max 10% total risk.

    Good luck out there!

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  118. What to expect (maybe)

    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/09/us-dollar-gold-silver-and-violent-hui.html

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  119. Considering that silver reached $25 overnight, and that this is just getting started, I wonder if Basil believes me about the low 20s on Silvers broken parabola now? :-)

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  120. Looks like John Townsend over at TSI trader has been doing a lot of emotional trading.

    Got crushed on TNA. Lost 30%
    Sold DZZ at 4.55 last week. Lost 11%
    Bought NUGT on Friday. WTF ?

    The guy has a pretty good track record but since the drubbing on TNA looks like he is trying too hard to make it back. No way I would have sold DZZ

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  121. SF giant,

    "No way I would have sold DZZ"

    It's always easy to say stuff like that hindsight regarding other people's trades.

    I think John's blog is great and it's free so dont think anyone has any right to complain.

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  122. Green energy is the solution to all of America's problems http://huff.to/qSdWmk

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  123. Dan

    It's very easy for me to say because I own DZZ. I bought it when he did.

    It's not a dig on his site because I like it too.

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  124. I'm seeing capitulation even in the physical market. Just bought 1.5 kilos of silver coins for 25% under spot.
    The bottom in silver can't be far when even stackers think the bull in metals is over.

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  125. Sophia,

    Sorry I missed your last post, I went to sleep. I have mentioned many times before that when gold puts in a short term bottom it almost always retraces back to the 150sma on a 5 min, before I went to bed I noticed the 150sma was at around 1630ish...so my answer to you would have been that. I see that gold did exactly as expected. Again, sorry I missed ya post.

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  126. I find it's a lot easier to see the what's really going on with the weekly charts.

    Look at those and then decide if you want to jump in front of this.

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  127. Thanks W2! please do not apologise, and thanks for coming back to me as soon as this morning!
    I missed the bottom of the overnight session as I was doing to school run, but I am now sharpening my pencils for further volatility.
    Tough market though, we need to stay focus.
    enjoy your day my friend!
    Sophia

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  128. Nice snag on the physical, Joseph L.

    If you put up a link, I'll join you on that trade if I can get 25% under spot.

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  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  130. Why is it so hard to believe that all parabolic always end the same way.

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  131. thanks Gary, will check those charts!
    Great to learn from all of you guys great traders but also very nice people!!

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  132. SB,

    I bought them at a silverware auction in the UK where everyone was too scared to lift their hands. All I could see were pale faces and shaking hands.

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  133. Well silver is firmly out of the "old turkey" level....not that I won't buy it, just not with "old turkey" in mind. At this point only physical gold is at my "old turkey" level...and then we scale down...Glad I got out of silver back in April, but was really wondering if this was going to be the first parabola that wouldn't break down.

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  134. Resist the urge to catch (trade) these moves in Gold/Silver, in both directions. We're witnessing the mother all of all bear traps here. Prices and Sentiment will be so depressed that one can make a small fortune, if they avoid blowing their capital until then.

    I'm amazed at Silver's collapse. I thought possibly $25-$26 at the final bottom. Yikes.

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  135. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  136. Surprising strength in gdx. The intermediate bottom is in.

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  137. Lots of strength in PM stocks...metals bottom, atleast short-term, maybe in.

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  138. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  139. GDX and GLD are both exactly +8% over 3 months.

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  140. USD is strong...fighting any down draft and coming back.
    Good stuff.

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  141. Long GDXJ 85%+, SSO 27%, DIG 8%
    Cash 0%

    +Increased position

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  142. Gold rolled off the 150sma on a 5 min now, as expected when gold is still in a down trend.

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  143. Folks remember the open is all about emotional retail traders...as we have just witnessed. The close is about smart money and smart money almost always trades in the direction of the larger trend.

    They love when the little guys get all excited at the open. It gives them someone to unload on or buy from as the case may be.

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  144. In at 98.94 AGQ.

    will sell at 98.5

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  145. Will that even cover slippage and brokerage costs?

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  146. man, GDXJ..back to 28 now...that could be it

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  147. Folks this isn't about price levels this is about time. It's going to take time to correct a 2 1/2 year C-wave.

    People are assuming because of the prices we saw just last week that there has to be a downside price limit.

    Real estate investors have been making this same mistake for 5 years now. Not that the D-wave will take five years, but it will almost certainly take another 5-6 weeks.

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  148. What is the fascination with trying to catch the bottom when most of the time it turns out to be a loss?

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  149. I am aware this is not the bottom. Just day trading a few shares..

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  150. FWIW, I was up almost 50% for the year by late March. Then I sold all my AGQ with silver at 48.

    Smart, huh? Then I tried to pick the bottom and gave back 80% of my profits. I TRIED TO PICK THE BOTTOM.

    Something about catching falling knives, seems to apply now.

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  151. open allowed me to short a homebuilder and newspaper. i may take my $ and run. or a trailing stop.

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  152. 5-6 more weeks is gonna feel like eternity to me! lol

    I put limit orders to buy/add below the market prices into that 10 am selloff, but didn't get filled on much. My intention was to turn up the dial on my total risk another 1/2% (would've gone 1% but early Mondays are not usually the best time to trade, IMO)

    I didn't get filled on most of my basket, just dinky shares here and there. I suppose I'll keep them out there the rest of the day and see what happens.

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  153. Wearing a smug smile internally by following Gary.

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  154. That's just what emotional retail traders do. They are always trying to spot trend changes.

    Professionals on the other hand ride trends until the trend changes. This is why cycles are an invaluable tool to help us spot trend changes.

    Much better than emotions or chart patterns. In case one hasn't figured it out yet charts will always say an asset is going lower at a bottom and higher at a top.

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  155. At least this week will put Sept in the rear-view mirror.

    Oct. could be a doozy as well. :)

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  156. choking up stops on my QQQ longs to the LOD. "we'll see". p/l on those oscillating around zero here.. there's still a lot of fear and panic out there so anything can happen immediate term but my jazz still says there is more demand than supply.

    if NFLX can break and hold 138 that might protend to a heck of a jump.

    gold looks like a good bounce play too, to 1700 at least.

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  157. I'll say it again. It takes time to correct a 2 1/2 year C wave.

    We may or may not have put in the daily cycle low, but the left translation of this intermediate cycle has high odds of completing the move below the last intermediate low and spawning a true D-Wave decline that retraces 50%-62% of the prior C wave advance.

    This is why I use cycles in the first place, so that I don't get distracted by technical chart patterns. It's also why I use sentiment. The sentiment in gold still has quite a ways to go before reaching truly oversold conditions. And the bounce out of the impending daily cycle low will almost certainly slow down this process.

    Bottom line, intermediate degree bottom isn't do until sometime in November.

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  158. Gary,

    I'm gonna make a few thoughts here and hope you respond in kind.

    I wish make an argument that gold has bottomed overnight. THE bottom.

    I'm aware that might not be true, of course, but hear me out and tell me your thoughts (I'm still mostly cash so I'm not putting money behind this as of now).

    1) For those who believe in the "previous intermediate lows hold except for 8yr selloffs", then we pretty much went down to almost hit the last INT low. If that rule is good, then we've seen the low. You are arguing against this rule for this D drop.

    2) The gold market character is changing (as you have noticed too).

    As more people come in it appears to be adapting to trade like the stock market and not like 'old gold'. In other words the tops are rolling over instead of spikes....but that would also mean that bottoms will also change to become...SPIKES instead of long drawn out recovering bottoms. No? Not possible?


    3) Your "C waves usually retrace X%" is a valid observation to gauge the expected pullback here (I think you are suggestiong 1300-1400), HOWEVER, unlike all the previous C waves, the measurement of where this one 'started' is much more fuzzy (or has some problems).

    By that I mean that the 2008/09 crash and recovery (by which you then gauge where this "C started") is only a SINGLE data point on the chart. We have multiple "C waves tend to do X" observations, but we do NOT have multiple "C waves AFTER 8 YEAR CRASHES tend to do X". Since we only have one I can think of some 'gotchas' in this situation:

    A) the "C low" after 2008/09 crash is NOT where it normally is. Meaning that for some reason right or wrong we all find out that you measure the "C wave start" after a 8yr crash at a DIFFERENT POINT then usual. Perhaps 1150 zone for example. I'm aware this breaks the rules of the ABCD type draw, but maybe that is correct "after the 8yr crashes". Since we only have one how would we know?

    B) perhaps the D pullback after a previous 8yr "D crash" follows a different rule. Perhaps it follows an alternate 'greater/lessor' rule such that because 08/09 D pullback was SO MUCH the pullback THIS TIME is LESS than previous expectations. Perhaps the greater number of people causes it to fall faster, but recover quicker and more shallow?

    4) Finally 1300-1400 simply seems like a huge gift after hitting 1900. I find often that when any price seems like an easy buy the odds are you will never get there for that exact reason. Markets don't make things easy. Easy buy points are usually not reached cause the price stops at the higher up points that nobody wanted to touch.

    So like I said, I'm in cash waiting, but I have some arguments here that the market (as markets do) might throw us a curve and not behave as per previous "D selloffs". Your thoughts?

    PS: also I should note that I believe this is the final selloff before gold now takes off and enters the massive public participation mode of the rally. One of my beliefs going forward after this bottom (whereever that is) is that the ABCD pattern will also breakdown - just like it did near the ending year or two of 70's as well (by my read).

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  159. There is no ambiguity as to where the C wave started. It started in April of 2009 at the D-Wave bottom of $860.

    Way too many people are assuming that the magnitude and duration of the last C wave will prevent gold from correcting extensively. And that is the exact wrong assumption. The further anything stretches in price and time the more violent the correction tends to be when it comes.

    The rubber band theory.

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  160. Gary,

    Charts are good for short term trades, definitely not trying to catch long term trend bottoms or tops, and anyone who thinks otherwise is making a big mistake. Although I can spot short term bottoms (and have many times, riding them back to the 150sma on a 5 min for atleast a $15 move or better) as I called last night... it would be impossible and irresponsible for me to say whether or not it was indeed anything other then a short term bottom.

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  161. Because of the left translated nature of the current daily cycle the stock market is probably forming a bear flag.

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  162. And since gold has shown no ability lately to fight a rising dollar, when that bear flag breaks lower in the stock market it's probably going to push the dollar through that 79 resistance level.

    That would suggest that any oversold bounce here probably still has another leg down along with stocks.

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  163. to be honest i don't even know what a bear flag looks like. diagonal trendline analysis is complete bunk imho. you can always draw something that supports your thesis.

    all i see is that day by day, there is more buy volume coming in than sell volume.

    that could very well change but it has yet to.

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  164. I use technical analysis that confirms what the cycles and sentiment are telling me.

    If the cycles and sentiment don't confirm that patterns are just lines on a chart and are meaningless to me.

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  165. TEST. My posts keep disappearing.

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  166. Gary, what do you think about platinum's inability to breach the 2008 high? Couldn't it mena that the fall in metals will be much worse that anticipated? Maybe silver in the teens and gold close to $1000?

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  167. TZ,
    I fixed it. I think it's the length of your posts that is triggering the spam filter.

    You want might want to break your posts up into smaller comments.

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  168. TZ,

    The last IT low was 1478, gold's low last night was 1535, thats not close.

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  169. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  170. Gold didn't even tag the 200sma on a daily last night, it bounced right of the 40sma on a weekly.

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  171. WW, considering we've had moves of $100+ in a day recently I'd say that $1478 is awfully close.

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  172. now that's what i call bear fail.

    if anyone cares, new SPY system buy target: 116.2 with stop 113.7

    that should be it for me today, good luck everyone. things may not be as they seem.

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  173. Harry,

    Thats the only reason 1478 seems close to 1535 :)

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  174. WW, right, that's my point - another $55 could go by in the blink of an eye.

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  175. Keep in mind the c-wave lower trendline is at 1483ish, and thats closer to 1478.

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