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Thursday, September 1, 2011


A portfolio change has been posted to the website.


  1. Gold building a base and the bid beneath it's wings is evident. While it remains above $1,705 AND below $1,850, we're in good hands, but we need much more than 7 days to work off the last 30% run, lose some weak spec's and let the averages work up.
    I'm now suspecting (hoping)we may see a short (through Sep), flat and range bound daily cycle here, allowing for a parabolic run to unfold in Oct and Nov to top off a monster IT cycle and C Wave. Working thought's still, but the action is encouraging, for now.

  2. Good call on the portfolio change Gary. Agree with the risk/reward outlook.

  3. Interesting thoughts today from Kevin Depew today - well, at least I thought they were interesting - ha ha!

    "This is not bear market activity. The time to be bearish has long passed"

  4. seems to me we're looking at a whole lot of choppy nothing from here until tuesday.

    dollar keeps strengthening but i doubt it's up up and away just yet.

    nevertheless dipping into SPY and QQQ shorts here. 1/3 committed. Q's in particular seem way over extended and have already tested their 233 day SMA (with a severe lack of buying accompanying it!)

    deluise out see you next week

  5. Possible Top spy 10 Min Chart:


  6. Poly,

    Your comment at 8:54 am, are you still keeping your call positions or getting rid of them to wait for base to form? Thanks

  7. Nice job Gary! I was amply rewarded on that trade. It's nice to be in 100% fiat for the weekend. I may spend some of SB's "confetti" on that fam. Have a good and safe holiday everyone!

  8. Tajir, keeping my core positions, GLD calls and GDXJ. Only a drop below $1,705 will shake me off. I need a position in case it surprises to the upside.

  9. Took off NUGT near the highs. Im thinking if the market rolls over for a few days gold may take a shot at 1900 in a couple days, not sure if miners will go for the ride though.

  10. "coolkevs said...

    appreciate your post, but I cannot really view your link..

  11. i got this from a Friend:

    Friday we get the non-farm payrolls report and there have been guesstimates for the number all over the map. Shortly after the Philly Fed number came out (August 18th), which was a shocking surprise at the time (-30.7 vs. expectations for a drop from 3.2 to 1.0), I saw a chart comparing the Philly Fed numbers vs. payroll numbers and it’s scary bad. The Philly Fed number is apparently a very good predictor of the payroll report and right now the significant decline is pointing to a loss of -700K jobs!! Compare that to the expectation for +75K. Needless to say, you do not want to be long the market if even a third, or a tenth, of that negative value comes to pass on Friday. The Philly Fed loss was even sharper than we saw leading up to the collapse in 2008.”

  12. Gann,
    Well connected friend or what?

  13. Thanks, Gary, for a nice profitable QQQ trade to end the summer.

    Those of us who profited will be sure to remember the Las Vegas Weightlifting team with a little contribution...

  14. Poly,

    Curious why you've chosen GDXJ over GDX for your miner position?


  15. SPY IH&S Pattern Playing out 10 min Chart:


  16. Mr m

    i don't know,

    I have a little short Position,on anyways , cause of the Inverse H&S

  17. Gary

    Was a very nice trade in SPX for me..Thanks!

    Also the gold trade earlier was nice..:-)

    Gary a man on a mission!

    Still holding some gold and silver here..

  18. Miners look like they want to breakout tomorrow...may put the NUGT back on end of day

  19. Miners have already broken out, no need to wait...

  20. http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/09/cnbc-attempts-to-quell-gld-conspiracy.html

  21. Mr. M: I'll bite. What huge bet are you making with the remaining 0.02%? :)

  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

  23. ver,
    A super-lottery play that will most likely never ever materialize!

  24. William W:
    Gotcha, I should have been a bit more clear, I'm referring to the gold BUGS index sniffing out a new high.

  25. Come on Myagi, tell us? I'm willing to go triple your stake at 0.06....with stop of course.

  26. Ahhhhh.......... what the heck....
    The stupidest bet, NFLX January 35 puts (slightly out of the money you see...). After 2 bad quarters and price increase, market going down and all that, I just "wet my beak" as Don Fanucci said.
    If NFLX breaks below 200$, or by chance goes to 180-150$, it would return close to 10-12 fold. But time is running short and this is not something I do on a regular basis but at around a dime, I figured give it a go.

  27. Gann,

    a -700k print would be clearly reflected in the weekly claims numbers. Claims would need to be well in excess of 500k to 600k to come close to that number.

    That said, maybe your friend meant to say -70k?

  28. Miaygi, appreciated.
    I'm going to follow your model portfolio but pls post us when its time to bail!

  29. Ver,

    Mainly because besides juniors (GDXJ) should move better than the seniors if it gets extremely speculative, as I expect.

    Also GDXJ actually has a 50/50 mix with Silver juniors, so I like the combination. GDX is much more gold focused.

  30. JG,
    Not much of a model!
    Anyway, past 3 days I bought and sold; GOOG, F, GDX, WJA.TO, ATD.B.TO and holding on to ECA.TO which is a bit underwater here. The rest sold at profit.
    And the NFLX...

    Looking to buy puts on LVS, HOG, AAPL, GOOG, one or more of these if we top out. Otherwise, cash for a short time.


    You taking lottery calls with out me...lol????

  32. Dow down over 200 points from the morning high.

  33. WW
    will you put on NUGT? will you use a stop, if so, where?

  34. About a month ago I said, 'Safehaven buyers are driving the price of gold up. When the more experienced traders, who buy miners, realize there's new buyers driving the price and a pullback isn't coming, they'll pile into miners.'

    If gold can stay flat while the US market goes up and down, and the dollar goes up and down people may finally believe these gold prices are for real.

    25% miners
    35% gld

  35. SPY BOW racking up at $189.80.

  36. Agree BlindWeb.
    It's all about believing the bullion price is here to stay.
    Miners forward cash flows are influenced primarily by bullion prices. More certainly on the bullion price provides for higher valuations.

    HUI 1,000 sooner or later, but it will have to come.

  37. WW,
    I took that one a while back!
    If you're thinking of anything, there's some interesting LVS September or October puts. If the market tops or the jobs report is terrible tomorrow, the casino stocks usually go down fast as do techs but their prices are higher. I trade LVS often so I am familiar with it, it could go as low as 42$ in 2 days if conditions warrant and it is overbought now. Hog falls fast as well but much less volatility.
    Other possibilities are AAPL and GOOG.

  38. Paul,

    I did put the NUGT back on before the close.

  39. Mr. M, I think you'll win that lottery play - NFLX just got creamed in after-hours...

  40. LowTax,
    I just noticed that before shutting the computer off for now. The deal talks with Starz fell through apparently, couple that with the fact that their new release content is dismal and cancellations are up, maybe the fall earnings will drive it down into the abyss. This stock is quite reactive to the direction of NASDAQ/QQQ as well.

    Oh also, insiders have been selling like crazy all year long.

  41. Better keep an eye out for the SEC after a trade like that :)

  42. One other stock of interest, check out CRM. I have not seen a P/E like that since 1999/2000. Nuckin' futs!

  43. MrMiyagi, Marc Faber in his newsletter has been recommending that CRM be shorted for some time. He reiterated this position this month

  44. Eamonn,
    I wasn't aware of that, thanks. 617 P/E is just not sustainable.

  45. Good pick Miyagi.

    I've been dying to short LNKD, will do so on the next run up. Come on, $8B valuation, 1,000's x earnings.

    Been playing around with Google+, it's a LinkedIN killer, IMO.

  46. Poly, MrMyagi, I wonder if you should be cautious here given the Fed's propensity to stimulate with money printing? You could get trapped

  47. That's why I'm waiting for the "next run up"

  48. Mr. M,

    I've played GOOG calls and puts for the last several years around the key pivots. Made some good money and had lots of fun. Because of its high share price, option moves can be huge!

    With all the recent volatility option premiums are too pricey for me. I'm sticking with ETFs for the next few months, specifically the TNA/TZA trades and just going with the big directional swings.

    ...and then of course there's the PM trades. Go Gary!

  49. Mr M

    Glad to see NFTX stock getting trashed. They Raised my subscription by 60%. I returned my movie and canceled the service the day after I got the email. I think many did the same.

    There are A LOT of gaps to fill on that stock. Some are as low as 130.

  50. Long time thinking....the only thing I can think of is Vortex!

    Sure I am wrong....but that is all that I can think of! Cash for me...gold, still waiting....

  51. SF Giants Fan,
    The Canadian content was dismal. I have seen better choices in the Salvation Army's VHS bin. I signed up for a trial and could not find one movie to spend 2GB of my monthly 20GB on and since then I keep getting emails about my "membership".

    Thank you for your concern, I don't have huge numbers of options at a given time and mostly it's 3-6K at a time and out with 10-15% profit.

  52. My system has gone long in the overnight session and has not established a stop yet.

  53. Long means short in your system or really long please Veronica?
    Thanks in advance

  54. Veronica,

    Sorry for the silly question, but if I remember well, at one point, your system was the other way round, so just checking... Thanks

  55. gary.
    gold going up again...
    looks like parabolic beyond control....

  56. Gap up in POG much greater in % terms than gap up on NUGT

  57. Gary, Gold is back up to 1870 at the moment ...

    Maybe it is not following ABCD pattern anymore...

  58. Is Ben gonna do a QE3 or an FU2 now!

  59. It's following the ABCD pattern just fine. We've been in a very extended C-wave since April of 09.

  60. this guy on CNBC said he was going to try to put a positive spin on the NFP. He goes on to say since the number was not negative it means employers are not laying off people so a recession is not a given.
    This channel is turning into comedy central.

  61. Wow, it is getting worst by the minute here for the economy!
    0 jobs created after 1.3 biliion!

  62. W2, That`s what he`s been doing all along!! Good one though.

  63. Now gold must be discounting a MUST QE3 ?

  64. Thanks Veronica, keep up posted as always much appreciated!

  65. I dont know how they will try to save the economy..I think its to late..

    I kept some of my gold and silver...Wrote that yesterday..Did add today..Gold broke through 1850 and silver 42..

    Turd got some nice chart here..


  66. Gary was warning us for this mess a long time ago..I actually tried to talk to my friends and relatives about this..Soon we are going down..And down hard!!

    They just looked at me..........

  67. SB,

    Major hit to SVM on rumor of fraud... you holding or selling?

  68. abc pattern? in Gold
    can you please explain where do you think it would head...
    its discounting Qe3 already?

  69. Looking for a tag of the 20sma, around the 2475 level in the Nasdaq to take off the QID.

  70. Michael,

    I liquidated a little over half in the pre-market, will likely exit the rest until I understand more.

    Loss on SVM will be between 12-15%.

  71. I might even keep the other half through the morning to see if "the short" decides to cover into this news, but I'm not thrilled and certainly not buying more.

    Other holding have done well, so I prefer to stand aside while there are accounting accusations.

  72. I wanted to cut some loose until we know more, but if I were "the short", I'd be inclined to buy into the release of the fraud accusation.

  73. thanks SB,, just exited on the bounce..

  74. What's going on with SVM?
    Did they not get the memo?

  75. I decided not to play games with SVM, all cleared out at around 13% loss.

    Still have EXK +38%, UXG +10%, GPL flat, and NGD +11%.

    Didn't buy the breakout in HUI as I had other issues this morning. :)

  76. Michael,

    We can't know if our exit was the best move until later, but no need to mess with accounting issues as they can drag on for some time.

    There are plenty of opportunities if we stay focused.

  77. Still have 30% of my original PHYS +21%, not adding to that one however, just miners when I get a chance.

    F'in SVM!

  78. My hunch is "the short" just stole our stock, but I can't get company specific in my overall long miner play.

    Anyway, moving on.

  79. agreed SB, best to exit when there is controversy and not spend mental energy on it.. focus elsewhere.. congrats on the great performance of your miners so far...good luck..

  80. I'm mostly cash taking no action today. I still have the expectation that last week was a gold peak and that this rally up is just an emotional rebound.

    I expected gold to sell off this week and it hasn't although there is an alternate pattern which says it can also selloff next week as well.

    GDX is still not outperforming CEF ('straight metal') on an consistent ongoing basis and a single (maybe) rally up today won't change that. In fact usually it is useful to at least let breakout confirm themselves by holding a breakout for at least two days.

    But two days would then bump us to next week (which I think gold could still resume dropping) and also into a period of obama's speech (which is likely the trojan horse for QE3).

    This doesn't even count the fact that we have a 3 day holiday so any buying here has reasonable gap risk as well if wrong.

    So....while I feel anxious and like I'm missing something in metals or miners I also recognize that that could just be the market doing its thing here while possibly just putting in a top. Faking people out in other words.

    Buying today would just be me either chasing or trying to force a trade outside my normal pattern and strategies. So I won't do it.

    I'm gonna see what next week brings and try to wait for a better entry that I understand and can limit risk on.

  81. Clearly I'd prefer to simply be 100% invested and holding and not have to worry and guess about things while a bull seemingly shakes me off and proceeds higher. But that simply isn't my position at this time.

  82. There's Gary's gap up on the miners...

    Ive had a full position (in HL AXU EXK PZG) since Gary called the low back in July. I have definitley been selectively listening to Gary's calls on the miners, completely buying into his bullish thesis while ignoring his ST trades :).

  83. This comment has been removed by the author.

  84. I'm wrong (in my view) if we don't start resuming down tues/wed of next week and do NOT break whatever high we have put in by that point.

    If that doesn't happen then the bull clearly continues to run and the peak is still ahead for this action.

  85. What's up with NGD? Are all you guys taking profits.

    It looks like SVM recovered. Never liked that company.

    Among the downtrodden, GSS is doing well.

  86. with a break of 1861, veronica's buy signal, we have a target at 2000.

  87. Long gold futures from 1833, which I believe was a breakout from the last few days consolidation. I agree with Veronica's system entry of long gold 1861 which is around the open of the last up day before the correction began. I think gold will be putting in a few big up days from here looking to tag $2000before any pullbacks.

  88. Frank,

    I'm not taking profits on anything, and prepared to ride through pullbacks looking to add into them.

  89. TZ

    Thanks for your thoughts..

    I dont expect gold to turn down here if the miners starts to rally..

    Of course the miners will rally harder then gold and silver but i dont think that gold and silver will fall hard if and when miners rally..

    But who knows?

    Maybe we will get a gap down early next week and go lower?

    For know I did at at 1850 and 42 in silver and got stops there..W8 and see..

    Have a nice weekend!

  90. Im looking at a target $2017.30 gold which is a 161.8% fib from the C-wave beginning.

  91. W2, Remember folks jumped out at silver below 50, so don't ride all the way up.

  92. One more thing about the dollar..Should rally with market down hard..

    But....If the numbers are bad in US..Everyone expect some kind of QE and that should hold the dollar down for now? Seems that a lot of money goes into PM:s instead of the dollar..

    W8 and see if something happens later on here..

  93. At ease

    Its scary to be long silver..

    But i tried to short it some weeks ago and that was even harder!!

    Never again!


  94. I was just kidding about NGD.

    p.s. I had a "cab driver moment" when a cab driver in Istanbul started asking my co-passengers about gold. He prefaced the discussion by "you ladies look like bankers" directed at my female co-passengers, which was nearly correct as they were (Keynesian) economists. It was not a bearish sign because it was about how and where to buy and sell it because of the spread in the physical market. I didn't follow the conversation because I don't speak the language, but I interjected via translation that he should buy gold miners on the stock market and he looked a bit puzzled. The bearish sign is when the cab driver BRAGS about owning gold.

  95. You've got to have a solid core stake in a mature, generational bull market, stretched or not. To borrow, "surprises to the upside".

  96. At ease,

    I will be looking for that huge spike I was telling gary about last week ($15-$20 spike within a five minute candle) immediately at the futures open to signal another top. This is what I seen at the recent top and hopefully it will be no different this time around if we put in a new high.

  97. Gary

    Any concern about the dollar move so far today?

  98. WW

    Send some smoke signals when you see it..:-) Already outside looking for them!

  99. Polly

    Add some today? Or just keep core?

  100. Moneyman,

    LOL...I will put up the Batman signal in the sky!

  101. W2,
    I heard Gotham was looking for that.
    so you are the bandit.

  102. At ease,

    You have been in London too long, NY is Gotham City now!

  103. Gdx is now one ugly candle, hopefully we don't end the day like this.

  104. Greenspanconscience...

    you mind if I send you and email?



  105. Thank You Gary and Veronica.

    Gary, that insight yesterday paid my membership 20 times over, no joke.

    Veronica, when you popped that up, I took the position and hit the hay.

    The shorts got trapped and the gap was so large, they had no choice but to capitulate.

    I'm out. 1877. Again, thank you.

    The Great Doubling will now appear, with me in it, after we see profit taking, and my chance to re-enter after the shorts are out and the newbies jump in here.

    What a terrific day.

  106. Russell, everyone getting out for the long weekend and taking profits?

  107. My father in law who works at a shipping port in New Jersey was telling me yesterday about one of his co-workers bragging about his gold investments.

  108. And Poly, and you to BB, you guys act as my 2nd minds. Amazing.

    TZ, your caution this time surprised me.

    And, for what it's worth, silver is still dragging its tired behind along at still way below the prior all time high of 50. Though, to be fair, I believe SI closed at 38.50 on that day; so it's an interday high.

    Thx to each of you here whose wisdom is extraordinary.

  109. @Moneyman "Add some today? Or just keep core?"

    No I'm not adding today, I see a test lower next week, hopefully and will add on a good pullback. Core is big enough to catch these moves and I want to see a parabolic continuation like breakout in order to risk chasing it.

    I added a good amount of GDXJ calls yesterday (don't normally add calls with miners but playing a HUI breakout)

  110. One of the rarest chart patterns appeared last night on the 1 hour, set at the 1/2 hour, like Farr Direct provides. (didn't look at TS).

    We saw a DSI facing up with a dynamite triangle on the hourly chart. That is amazing.

    The targets of that move are:

    2X 1184.1 (high has been 1887)
    3X (this can be coming, and probably is) 1922.

    The top of the dynamite triangle in Dec is 1858.7. It's not certain but a retracement there is well within historical normal.

  111. Gary, would you explain your reasoning for your amazing call yesterday afternoon?

    What were the key factors that caused you to call for such a high percentage position?

    Congrats on being a brilliant tactician.

  112. Bought small QQQ Sep call. I think the "game the fed" play is on. That should also bode well for miners and gold.
    Now off to more important work.....fantasy football draft prep.

    Have a great long safe weekend all.

  113. Gld is making a top, I would not go long here, in fact, I see a good opportunity to short gold (buy GLL very soon). Also, a great chance to buy TNA at 41 or so.

  114. SI has formed a dynamite triangle on the hourly, measured by the 1/2 hour in SI1Z.

    First Bar -- 4267 - 4324 57 pt spread.

    A takeout in this half hour of 4308 will create the setup.

    I've never seen anything like this, this being at the top of the second pulse.

    As I've no historical record patterns for this, not being GS or MS, I don't know what it will do. It's not to be ignored. I just don't know if it's going to fuel the retracement or further the move into the 3rd pulse.

    If the latter, we could see 175 pts up above the high before it peters out.

  115. "Gdx is now one ugly candle, hopefully we don't end the day like this."

    Dan, what's ugly about them?
    These look like real deal all time high breakouts we are seeing across the entire PM space! Volumes are massive considering it's a summer Friday, before a major holiday.

  116. Ugly candle? Are you color blind, because it's a big fat green one breaking UP!

    Unless you are not in or short miners. :)

  117. Glad I sold my positions yesterday, had a feeling about a drop, should have gone with a small put on something or other but hey, that's the way she goes.

    I want to see if gold breaks and holds through 1900$ this time or will it be like silver's two attempts at 50$.

  118. Curious if anyone knows why on both kitco's gold and silver charts there is a flatline at around 11 am?

  119. GDX looks beautiful in my opinion. the dollar too.

    everything else i'm confused about. gold especially- buy volume has not been appropriate for the size of this rebound. stocks immediate term oversold..

    if/when the dollar begins to rocket what are people going to pile into? looks like miners at the moment.. with a healthy heap of bonds.

  120. Poly --

    "...I added a good amount of GDXJ calls yesterday (don't normally add calls with miners but playing a HUI breakout)...'

    Gold volatility is high, and you are not worried about over-priced options?

    Not picking on you, just trying to learn from reputed guy in real time.

  121. The "crappy" miners are doing very well today.

    E.g. MGN, GSS, JAG and GBG.

  122. Gold volatility is very high and the GLD calls are ridiculous.
    But yesterday (and last week) they were not so on the GDX/GDXJ options and Oct\Nov DITM (and some OTM's) were reasonably priced (relatively).
    But the BIG problem is the spread, you can't just hit the "ask" otherwise you will pay through the nose. You have to entice the ask, especially on decent pullback in the underlying stock. You almost have to hunt the strikes.

  123. Poly --

    Thanks for answering, it's very tutoring.

    How do you judge about option pricing -- is it through comparing an intrinsic value with time value? Or is it through options value calculators?

  124. Vega and implied volatility.

  125. Labor Day weekend, gone to their pricy retreats is my guess.

  126. Last post on EWJ vs GDX:
    I brought this trade up to the attention of this board last fall when it was indicated that Japanese stocks would outperform other equities. This was based on DeMark Monthly indicators that recorded last fall and are expiring soon that were good for one year.
    Really, the EWJ trade held up remarkably well until the first of August when the bottom of equities fell out. I was particularly impressed that it outperformed the GDX miners index for so long with the tsunami and the nuclear disaster that followed. But now with the GDX hitting new highs, it is time to bid the trade adieu, but I think the EWJ trade shows that DeMark indicators can and do work, often anticipating unexpected outcomes.

  127. Frank --

    Yes, I know what the Vega is.

    But for practical purposes, how do you estimate if option is chip or over-priced?

  128. forgive me father..

    just bought GLD puts. jan 154.

  129. 233 day SMA is a little under 144.

    if this "D wave" is anything like the others it should tap it. assuming we don't keep lifting for another few months.


  130. Sold some miners, booking gains. May shed the rest today...

  131. Why would gold drop today? The fear is to the upside. Wiggle the line and the shorts and the newbie shorts will come streaming out of their positions.

    There've been only 2 pulses up. There's one more that's within the cards, like at the close, as a signing off, screw you, trade until the last moment?

  132. back to the exciting but sleepness nights ladies

  133. Nasdaq nearing that 20sma tag I was waiting for to take off the QID

  134. Might bounce a bit here but looks like the boys have to prepare QE3 paperwork.

  135. Deluise,

    Sold back some PMs as well, booking gains


    Well played on your TQQQ sale couple of days ago...I should have followed you on this ome...missed Garys call last night and back to breakeben, I am very very sad....

  136. Sophia,

    Sorry to hear that :(

    There will be another opportunity to put the TQQQ back on, like I have been saying, if this plays out like 08 (looking like it is) the bear market rally hasn't begun yet, we may see a new low beforehand. Have to see how next week looks.

  137. Sold the rest of my miners to the highest bidder...Nothing will survive a recession...

  138. Not to be a wet blanket or anything, but the miners (as measured by XAU, HUI, and GDX) continue to underperform the metal.

    This on a "breakout" day for the HUI.

  139. David,
    The longer that continues the longer this move will last. We want as many people as possible skeptical of the move in miners for as long as possible.

  140. The HUI has shown in the past the ability to go ballistic. Not suggesting it will right here, but in a matter of 3-6 months it has in the past doubled! 2003 and 2005 more than a doubled. 2007 some 50%.

  141. Poly/jayhawk,

    Whatever you say but the daily sure looks like an upside reversal candlestick right now. I guess one could intrepet it as just back testing the breakout but it's an ugly tail for a "breakout" and we continue to underperform gold.

    And yes I'm holding miners and added at open so not rooting against everyone, just trying to be objective.

  142. Gary - what do you make of the volume in GDX? There was more vol on 8/22 high. Couldn't this be a head fake?

  143. Gary thanks for the alert yesterday! Sold all my QQQ!

  144. fwiw--- gold to me is back on 65 day cycle with 2nd half fireworks.
    we first have to break into new high ground---corrections than mostly intraday. jmo

  145. besides obvious, i have always done well with cef which close at small discount lastnight

  146. IMHO physical and GLD are the way to go at this point...

  147. the safest way but miners climb that wall of worry.

  148. If TNA goes to 40.10, it's a buy there, don't hesitate, imho. Also, at that level, GLL seems atractive.

  149. Markets are a pukefest to the finish, dumpers will come out soon and not hold through the long weekend, my opinion.

    In other news, Labor day Canada/US Monday but European markets are open. Will gold mirror silver's May mayhem with a surge and then crash on Tuesday?
    I don't know, all I can say for sure is that Tuesday will follow Monday every week.

  150. Great ride, but I'm thinking of selling my NUGT before the close. A three-day holiday is the perfect time for TPTB to do something dramatic in Europe or the US.

  151. Slumdog,

    >TZ, your caution this time surprised me.

    I have a number of methods of picking a top that I haven't discussed here. (They worked beautifully on silver).

    Those indications suggested a peak in gold last week and drop this week. However, they aren't perfect (like anything) and can also be read to indicate the starting of a drop NEXT week. In other words there is an alternate interpretation (without stretching anything to 'make it fit') that simply moves things a week.

    "Next" week is a single business day away. We are also near (but not above) the previous gold top, so this might be only a retest.

    And as far as today it's a straight move vertical in gold so if I bought where exactly would I put a stop? Best answer I have is about $50 away or $5000/contract which is huge and would only give me a small position based on risk control.

    I might as well just wait and see how things play out next week and even if I'm wrong and we resume going up to new highs I'll likely get some kind of better entry than I have fri afternoon here.

    My big score this year was silver. I've screwed up gold lately, but the way I trade I only have to hit a few significant trades here and there (at 4-6x) to make up for it. Of course that means I'm out and trying a lot and it also means I might not beat buy-and-hold, but that remains to be seen.

    I just don't want to take a 'cowboy' trade today that goes against my strategy and existing systems of trading.

  152. the absolute volume in GDX may look weak but the relative buy vs. sell volume in it is very, very bullish. what we're seeing at the moment is just a backtest of the breakout as far as i'm concerned.

    also QE3.. i don't know. the only thing i see 'anticipating' it is gold- not the dollar, bonds, or stocks. and my feeling is gold is either wrong or is in the process of pricing it in completely- so if it happens, nada, if it doesn't, kaboom.

  153. MrMyagi... you make my day...

    "all I can say for sure is that Tuesday will follow Monday every week"

  154. It looks like the markets want to force the hands of Obama and Bernanke.

    Damn the 10yr bond under 2% !

  155. Nothing knew to most of you, but while we look for the day trades, there are MAJOR currents that we need to AVOID and some that present lifetime opportunities.

    1. Recession is baked into the cake. Guaranteed.

    2. Margins are at traditional business cycle high's and now topped as per #1.

    3. Demand will fall further placing pressure on already flat corporate revenues.

    4. Corporations have little cutting room left after slashing to the bone for 3 years.

    5. Zero federal/state/local will or ability to stimulate via spending. They are actually sucking liquidity from the system.

    6. Government tax receipts will fall sharply, again. Sovereign debt models do NOT account or allow for a global recession. Debt to GDP ratio's will balloon higher.

    7. Financial's holding sovereign paper (already poorly capitalized) are going to get destroyed once sovereign paper collapses.

    8. Any government centric solution to Europe problems requires approvals from ALL local bureaucratic governments, NOT going to happen. No will from the northern European people to support club med. When the s%#^ hits the fan, it's every person for themselves. Fear is an amazing emotion.

    9. Only two possible solutions, a) a world wide reset, mass defaults and collapses. b) a MASSIVE , shock and awe like response by the ECB, FED, world central banks and the IMF that will blow you away.

    10. 10yr heading to 1%. Equities are heading to sub 1,000 possibly within this IT cycle. Deflation will suck the system dry. Dollar will rally. Gold's IT cycle will be right translated and the chart is now projected a top of $2,380.

    We're not talking overnight, without pauses, rallies, breaks and re-tests. Hitting singles are great, but the money, the real money, is avoiding and/or catching the big ones.

  156. So it looks like a pretty shitty XMAS huh?
    Is that what your saying?

  157. BoW in the SPY. Are they just BTFD or do they know something....

  158. Poly--nice summary. and tks for your contribution to this site.

  159. Sophia, sometimes the Short/sell signal would mark a bottom but it got so confusing to everyone that I only post buys and sells right now, and they mean exactly that.Sounds like most here have had a good day,congrats:)

  160. Is this sell off real to you?

    DIA and SPY say maybe not...the sell off on AUG 18th was much worse.


    look at AVD, FNSR, CEDC

    hhhmmmm- I realize its friday before the 3 day wkend, but LIGHT volume...I will be watching volume closely on tuesday if selling continues

  161. This should only be a half cycle low. It should hold above 1100. If it doesn't then we would have a left translated intermediate cycle developing already, and that's simply to hideous to even contemplate at this point.

  162. Gary, I hope you mean hideous for the stock market and not our PMs. :)

  163. Poly, love your material, maybe you should be working at the White House as an economic advisor:)

  164. I'm thinking many home players are gonna see this downside push today and to move money from equities into PM over the long weekend.

    It doesn't matter what Big O says Thurs. because Congress is gonna shoot it down anyways. He knows that and when it get shot down he's has an "I Told YOU So" for the election.
    He wants to say "He Tried" and they want to say "He Sucks"

  165. When was the last time gold was at 1100? Yes I'm talking about the stock market.

  166. bet ron paul will show well in debate

  167. Appreciate it guys, as I appreciate all the work everybody provides on the site, especially Gary.

    The encouraging observation is that the miners recovered a decent part of the drop and closed nearer to the high's of the day, in spite of equities closing near the lows.

  168. Do you notice how RP is rarely mentioned in the MSM? They're afraid of him imho.

  169. Good Call Boss(Gary)on getting out.

    The last 2 moves to 100& Cash were in the zone guy. People have to realize saving capital is just as important as good entry points. At least to me, big down days are hard to be in.

  170. Poly,

    Excellent post, thanks for your insights. I presume you are not adding to shorts at this time?

    Best of luck..

  171. Greenspan,

    Could not find your email in your profile, do you mind telling me what it is?

  172. Poly: Don't exit the bull market.

    ...At Ease: Why?

    Poly: It would be bad.

    ...At Ease: I'm fuzzy on the whole "good/bad" thing. What do you mean, "bad"?

    Poly: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously, and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.

    Beanie: Total protonic reversal!

    ...At Ease: Right, that's bad. Okay. Allright. Important safety tip. Thanks, Poly.

  173. Gary,

    You're going great. Have a relaxed and refreshing weekend.


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