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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

POSSIBLE PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A possible portfolio change has been posted to the website.

117 comments:

  1. Market wants to rally to the close...

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  2. Is VGZ going to be the next NXG? Up almost 12% of double the average volume.

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  3. im owt, whipsawin' hurtin' my nek. Ill sit cash until....

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  4. control your position size correctly and you won't have this problem.

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  5. miners out performing the metal. Bernwakie is going to push stimulas hard come 25 sept. We saw silver have its turn, gold and I think now the hedgies are going to jump on the miners. Action is very positive for miners.

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  6. Gary, come back into the Nasi 100. This thing is flying off the shelf into the close!

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  7. I will consider that in tonights report.

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  8. So Gary,
    Should I short gold here? It can't hold 1900$.


    Just kidding.
    Decent recovery by the markets considering past couple of days in overseas activity as well as the greenback. S&P almost closed this morning's gap and there's another one from Friday as well.
    Maybe another bounce?

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  9. Miyagi, whats the latest status on your model portfolio?

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  10. anyone know how to track HUI on thinkorswim?

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  11. F.W.I.W.

    My view of this sell off Friday was that it was probably a fake out (shake out)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Ckk9HsuB

    and today, I see the same thing

    http://www.screencast.com/t/7WhfRxqJ

    I would say so far another low is in, bounce coming.

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  12. JG,
    Very light, a small position on MGM and my NFLX puts.

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  13. Alex, I agree with you. Fake out, shake outs.

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  14. You are absolutely correct G. My position was 85% rather than 75%.

    If I lose my entire account though, my life style won't take a hit. It would be harder to resurrect. ;)

    Im out because what I witnessed today. Upward movement was very strong in the morning yet came back down just as hard.

    As you advise, kept my emotions under control and took profit.

    Will now wait and see what happens. Will buy back if a another test comes or will enjoy watching ride for all the others.

    Thanks!!!!!

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  15. Shalom - RE: next NXG - I much prefer BRD to VGZ. A little further DD and I'm sure you'll agree. Hint: look for BRD projections next Q.
    Full disclosure: My first NXG purchase was April 09 at $1.34 - still own it. I held VGZ previously (they couldn't get their permits together so I sold) and currently own BRD.

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  16. Alex,

    Are you concerned with the lack of follow thru with GDX today, after breaking through resistance last week?

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  17. Razvan,
    Unfortunately Obama speaks Thursday Night. The market always tanks after he speaks. Friday could be a down day.

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  18. Blogger alexi said...

    Alex
    What do you think of GBG? TIA.
    Kai

    September 6, 2011 12:21 PM

    ALEXI

    I think GBG looks fine(but I dont own it), and if you own it and were looking at todays sell off (6%)...normally that would be a little bothersome, but when I look at GBG--it seems typical for it(see arrows) ..yet it has turned around and recovered quickly.

    I would watch the 20sma on this one.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/HGsXbg7xAZ

    hope that was helpful

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  19. miyagi, are you not in the miners trade?

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  20. ROBL

    No, I believe this move is REAL, since Many of the MINERS charts are breaking out to new highs with volume and many others are setup beautifully.

    AT this point , I believe we see a lot of accumulating . For my equities I noticed last summer many ran up along their 20sma consistently bouncing off of it...so I would expect maybe the same (but once it really gets going, maybe the 9sma :)

    This was SSRI last summer for example ( I drew this Friday- it totally ignored what I said today :)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OAQFrEIvF

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  21. Gold down $25. Equities down triple digits. Miners/HUI up. Keep it in perspective guys!

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  22. Alex,

    I do remember you calling the bottom in miners last summer.
    Do you remember what the catalyst was for your bottom call last summer?

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  23. Russell,
    Obama's telepromtern writer has recently quit his job to go into comedy. Hopefully the new one will be more market positive... lets keep our fingers crossed!

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  24. RobL

    Sorry, hard to say really -Kind of a lot of different things , its a process. I used MAny 'indicators'(I took a Tech Analysis class in 2001 and then self taught the hard way (losses).

    XRA broke out really nicely today JAYHAWK sent me a great chart ...Jay , you should post that here!

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  25. Thank you David

    and thx for the laugh this wkend, I literally cracked up when you wrote

    Blogger David said...

    Beanie, great post.

    Wait, did I just type that? ;)

    September 4, 2011 8:35 PM

    good posts by many on here, everyones contributions are helpful.

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  26. Alex-

    XRA on my watch list forever, I bought and sold it a few times over the past year and it always frustrated me! Rumors of a potential buy out sent it flying today and above this resistance. I never seem to catch these strong moves though. :)


    http://screencast.com/t/5KH9QfkHaJig

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  27. DON

    In case you missed it, I posted to you on the last post at this timestamp-

    September 5, 2011 10:35 PM

    Jayhawk

    Thanks , thats quite a chart!

    Now look at THAT chart compared to this one side-by-side-

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RyRay5oX

    ;)

    Gotta run-good night all

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  28. Mish is rambling on about gold and miners again. Sign of a top folks.

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  29. Greek Lesson 9-6:

    GC dropped into Monday's day over day exhaustion gap. Spot 1879-85.

    Just as I posted, the market last night waited for the last ones to get long and then slammed everyone, all the newbies.

    The market dropped within points of the top of the breakaway gap, again day over day. That gap is 1837-58 spot.

    So, I expect another clean their clocks slam into that which will feel like total capitulation.

    My hunch is that the market will drop into the gap most of the way, and then scream back up, creating the Big W. I expect this within 2 days, if what I am hunching is true.

    The buying opportunity is at 1845-50. That will drive all the indicators I watch to their low, making it a low risk re-entry point.

    I don't think this is a D wave as we've not yet visited 1950 to 2150, my target number of high probability.

    At the 1850 range, I'll be watching the 1 and 5 min charts to show me exhaustion.

    Greek from a Latin...

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  30. Gotta admit, Mish has been right about gold and bonds for years now.

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  31. Shalom Bernanke, I asked you recently the content of your miners portfolio. You mentioned you had : EXK SVM UXG GPL NGD AUY IAG
    Has anything changed? I'm thinking of loading up. Thank you

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  32. Mitch has been right about gold and bonds for years.

    I spoke with him when gold was at $600 and we debated inflation/deflation at the time. We agreed on gold and disagreed on bonds. He was right on the bonds, too.

    When he took his focus off the economy and went on a tangent to chase after unions, I left his board.

    I don't think he gives a hoot about his readers being amateurs. He's talking to himself and with himself about what he sees is happening. He's committed to his truth. When it comes to a good insight, he's not a flash in the pan guy.

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  33. Joseph, you're a newbie and he's not rambling. I'm assuming you just don't have perspective that you'd comment as you did. No biggie. At school, I think you'd do well to study economic history which of course won't be offered.

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  34. Just got a text message from my mom.

    "Cramer says gold is mandatory.

    Time to buy?"

    Mind you, she was unwilling to buy from $275 to $1600.

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  35. This Is Where The Energy And The Dynamism Are -Jim Rogers

    http://tinyurl.com/3hdpg7q

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  36. David,

    Its funny cause all gold bugs for some reason use Cramer as some sort of sell signal but as far I remember, Cramer has been touting gold for the longest time. So just for fun, I decided to google it and after some searching I found this:

    http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2006/5/Pages/Cramer-Bullish-on-Gold--A-Contrarian-s-Worst.aspx

    So say what you will about Cramer but id bet the majority of people here were not in the gold bull back in 2006.

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  37. Slumdog, I agree that it doesn't look like a D wave has started, and I think the 9 day displaced average should give support, at least on a closing basis.It's down a bit further then your target and lines up with Gary's ascending triangle possibilty.It would also line up with a 50% retracement of this current rally.

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  38. Dan,

    It's not Cramer that I see as a contrary indicator.

    It's my mom.

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  39. This is an interesting chart.

    http://image.minyanville.com/assets/buzzbanter/charts/original/083011/bubblenky_1314707651.gif

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  40. The Euro will likely collapse. There is no doubt that Gold will be the replacement for wealth storage in many Euro-land investors when this happens. Zero hedge article below gives some ominous quotes from a group of who's who re the Euro.
    here's the linl... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-financial-system-finished-quotes

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  41. David that was funny what you shared about your Mom.

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  42. Sb

    Miner question for u. What is avg cost per oz to mine gold? What company has lowest cost per oz with the largest reserves?
    Thx

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  43. always knew this time would come.

    internals---

    pm stocks look very good

    gold and silver not bad

    broads---ugly especially financials

    spx resistance 1173 or maybe starts negative.

    I would follow GARY--not hocus pocus stuff.
    besides they will want market up for debates and BO

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  44. Does it make sense that China rips the US for "manipulating" gold but then has their own form of margin hikes?

    If they wanted to truly "screw" the US over and end the "manipulation game" then why wouldn't they want all of their citizens to buy gold cheaply and extremely leveraged hand over fist?

    It's because they are just as involved, isn't it?

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  45. Are you folks ready for the plunge in gold and spike up in equities? Well, are ya? Get ready for Obama's game changing jobs teleprompter talk!

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  46. Beanie,
    We cut back on miners this afternoon and will buy the Q's tomorrow if a swing forms.

    As I've been saying I think the bear market rally still has further to go, I just don't know if gold and miners will follow or correct, thus the trimming of mining positions today.

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  47. RJ,
    This is what Japanese exPM said when the US "feared" Japan's economic might during the 90s like some fear that of China now. I think it holds for China, as long as the US does not fight the China peg, they won't screw over the cozy relationship.

    "I hope the U.S. will engage in efforts and in cooperation to maintain exchange stability so we will not succumb to the temptation to sell off treasury bills and switch our funds to gold."

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  48. Gold and miners are a joke, Tulipmania ponzi type of joke.

    The coming green energy bull market makes more sense and will be bigger.

    and by the way, we're still in a bull market with a recent 20% correction.

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  49. Green energy is a fairy tale, at least for the next few years and we most certainly are in a bear market.

    Face it you are caught again. You've now made the same mistake twice. You are going to get your chance to exit with most of your profits and you are going to miss it just like you did in 07/08.

    Perma views are just bad for ones portfolio. Either bull or bear.

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  50. Alex
    Thank you! From the chart, I think you are bearish now? Let me know when you will start subscription service. :-)

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  51. Gary, maybe you could invest the weightlifting fund into GLD or UGL, maybe at the next serious correction?

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  52. What the hell just happened?

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  53. What I was afraid might happen and the reason I took down the heavy GDX position.

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  54. E,
    I will most certainly invest the weightlifting funds at the next a D-Wave bottom.

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  55. "What the hell just happened?"

    What are you refering to?

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  56. Gold dropped to $1817. Over $100 in less than 24 hours.

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  57. Interesting that Marc Faber believes we will break below the July/August low at 1,101 (on the S&P) and continue down to 1,000 (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/7_Marc_Faber_-_This_Will_End_in_Disaster_%26_You_Must_Own_Gold.html)

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  58. I believe we will to but not without first having a very convincing bear market rally.

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  59. Gold just tanked 30$


    Did you all read the Ben Davies article today on king world news? How gold tanked 50$ 5 minutes before the Swiss announcement....fishy fishy....

    More gold smackdown before it rockets up later???!

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  60. Gold dropped $60 in less than 5 minutes.

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  61. Folks, we knew that gold was at least going to have to consolidate. It's way too stretched above the 200 day moving average to correct for two days and continue higher. That was never an option.

    So don't get all wrapped up in conspiracy theory nonsense.

    If the miners can hold up well that would be a signal that gold will probably consolidate. However if the miners break down and gold drops below $1706, then we are almost certainly caught in a D-Wave decline and the 2B reversal is/was significant.

    We will just have to play the waiting game and see how this plays out.

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  62. Finviz is a lil slow... didn't see it in real time.

    it's still reading 1835

    kind of relieved im in all cash.

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  63. Copper up for the first time in five days. Risk on.

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  64. Beanie, chill.

    Gold is an asset class, like bonds or other commodities.

    Your tragic flaw as an investor is that you think this is a team sport -- bulls vs bears, stocks vs gold.

    Sophisticated investors don't see the world this way. There are times to be bullish and times to be bearish. You can own more than one asset class in your lifetime.

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  65. Gary

    What price would gold have to fall below to have a failed cycle and begin the d wave?

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  66. gary wrote:

    If the miners can hold up well that would be a signal that gold will probably consolidate. However if the miners break down and gold drops below $1706, then we are almost certainly caught in a D-Wave decline and the 2B reversal is/was significant.

    6 or 7 post up from this one

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  67. DG,

    Are you there....have not seen you for a while. Any thoughts on euo? Wondering to sell or pile more in during next pullback this week

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  68. first warning sign was when gold sold off on the CHF assassination.

    the strength in equities didn't help.

    nor the ongoing dollar blast off.

    too many people set too obvious a stop and blammo. perfectly rational explanation.

    i don't know how much further gold will fall but i would bet my last nickel it's going to test that wick first. stay frosty this AM gang.

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  69. Dollar down, gold down, bonds down, stocks up.

    Looks like risk on trade in on...

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  70. If there is going to be a 2008 style sell off in silver it will most likely begin within the next 10-15 trading days IMO. The trigger could be a titanic dollar rally fueled by panic in Europe. The talking heads are telling us that is about to happen. Whether it will or not...

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  71. Sold all my GLD in after hours yesterday. Two close calls in one day. Phew!

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  72. Gary, do you think the D-wave (or most of it) in gold has just taken place?

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  73. Danno, I just don't see a dollar rally when stocks are this oversold.

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  74. We've probably seen the lows in gold for the day. Went long with 25% of portfolio.

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  75. Veronica-

    I belive your system went to a buy @ around 1861. Has the stop been hit over night? Or is your system yet to put a stop?

    Appreciate your inputs!

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  76. JL,
    A panic can trigger anything. Take a good hard look at mid August 2008. Stocks were oversold then too. But they went a LOT lower.

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  77. I wasn't saying there WILL be a 2008 style sell off. I meant if there is one in silver it may begin within the next 10-15 trading days... or it probably will not happen at all.

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  78. Seems like every time I fall asleep gold crashes. Must stay awake,LOL!

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  79. Dollar cannot rally? Pull up a 5 year $USD chart on StockCharts.com

    Compare two periods:
    May - Sept 2008
    May - Sept 2011

    Look familiar?

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  80. NJ,the stop has been activated but is lower so not relevant yet.I have stressed that after having 8 straight winners it is overdue for some losers so keep that in mind.MACD on gold is forming a bearish divergence and was not able to cross over on the latest move to new highs.

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  81. Gary

    What can be short term and long term consequences for PM's if Obama Succeeds in getting $300 Billion Jobs Package approved.

    Thanks
    Tracy

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  82. Tracy,
    It doesn't work that way. If gold is due to drop down into a D-wave it will be because it got too stretched above the 200 DMA and a profit taking, regression to the mean event has started. Human emotions will drive that to completion despite fundamentals.

    We just need to watch $1706 for a violation. As long as that holds then this should just be a consolidation.

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  83. FWIW

    While also expecting the MKT bounce-I will be watching the GDX as it nears the bottom of this channel , which is around the 20sma also

    http://www.screencast.com/t/r4gx4mXqbGGa

    Right now I think a very Large % of Miners charts are bullish longer term and set up nicely. You have to expect pullbacks. for ex: RIC

    I posted this Friday expecting the pullback to $10 area

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZPlhqHp6

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nEBdL0ZK9

    keeping in mind that during last yrs Run...most mining stocks pulled back to tag the 20sma. this is SSRI as it more than doubled (but had pullbacks along the way

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OAQFrEIvF

    I posted NG to show that a break ABOVE this downtrend line would be bullish. A close above $11 would do it.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RyRay5oX

    Yesterday closed above $11 , so in the next few days...atch for a RETEST of that line...or will it fall back inside the channel ??

    good day all

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  84. Thanks Gary

    Would it be wise to wait and see whether Gold Violates $1706 or one can make small buys just in case Gold make a U-Turn again.

    Thanks

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  85. One can do anything they want, but calculate what your risk is if $1706 is taken out and you have to sell for a loss. I'm comfortable with a 25% position but I think I will recognize trouble long before the miners take out 560 and sell for a much smaller loss on the position. Plus I have a small profit on the 50% position I sold yesterday to offset that potential loss a bit.

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  86. I should add that my chart of NG (below) was a weekly chart, so you really want to see the close above that trendline at the end of the week.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RyRay5oX

    If it closes inside that channel at weeks end, after poking through the top, that can be a reversal.

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  87. Alex,

    Thanks for the charts as always. I'm staying with the same plan, looking to add into weakness. Ideally, I'd like to see the $HUI pull back below the breakout level (over the next week) to add a significant chunk of capital.

    Time to be patient. :)

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  88. $HUI at 590 or so would get me very interested as other sell out b/c a "failed breakout" occurred.

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  89. Maybe big money is sniffing out a margin increase.

    China announced one a few days ago

    http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Chinas-SGE-to-raise-gold-silver-margin-requirements-from-Sep-9-42120-3-1.html

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  90. S.B.

    agree...SO FAR its like the markets are just taking turns. SPX goes up for a few days, Miners and Gold corrects and then they change roles.

    I would be buying weakness too , if conditions remain right and the HUI could start forming a channel with a pullback to the 20sma / break out area too.

    I'll be gone for the morning, best wishes trading guys!

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  91. IMO, 1828 Dec gold is the buy point. I'm buying at this point.

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  92. HUI could easily drop to 490 at any moment. Easily. Don't fall in love.

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  93. Gary, Im burrito sure that the 3 year cycle low is behind us. Are you still of the mind set that Ben will bring it this fall?

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  94. Lowest entry is 1818. Now will stand pat.

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  95. Because I respect gaps, I think we will be back to the 1837-58 gap quickly.

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  96. Slumdog

    Nice analysis from you lately..

    So you think 1828 will hold and we will not go lower..?

    Sold my silver but still holding some gold here..

    And ofc long the stockmarket at this point.

    Good luck!

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  97. SF Giants, despite all the media attention that the China futures market/gold is getting, its volume is incredibly small and irrelevant.
    Gold though is due for a margin increase, the margins are simply too low as they stand right now.

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  98. 1828 has already been taken out. Gold is down to 1823 as I type.

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  99. "big money" could care less if they raise futures margins. the only people who care about that are "blog money".

    with the new low in /gc just now my system target is pointing to 1713.5.

    the amount of money that left during the first plunge, as i wrote then, is pointing to the high 1500's.

    the 233 day SMA is currently at 1482.

    still long UUP calls and GLD puts, probably going to call it a day early lest i do something stupid.

    stocks look like they're capable of new bounce highs. GDX still looks healthy considering.

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  100. the miners ETF I bought last week is almost at my purchase price pre-market.

    gonna put in an market buy for n100

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