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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

portfolio change

It portfolio change has been posted.

1,094 comments:

  1. positions were bought back at almost exactly the same level we sold them yesterday.

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  2. That's a bear market for you :)

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  3. I think I'm better off not trading for awhile. I missed selling yesterday so I sold 50% this morning for a loss. This really is getting to be day trading, which I personally am not able to devote the time to.

    thank you.

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  4. im liking the action in miners here also. resisting a 50 point drop in gold and finishing level for the day feels pretty bullish

    how quickly things turn around, i felt like throwing up this morning starring into the abyss lol

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  5. Bought GDX, the reversal and strength at the end of the day bodes well...

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  6. plus poly bought the puke which is also to be respected

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  7. I'm joining you Elaine. Until I get a sense of direction I'm 100% cash.

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  8. I agree with Elaine.

    The miners were being accumulated throughout the day, and the trend was clearly established before the "12:52" post. 8 minutes notice is hardly helpful.
    All this skittish jumping into and out of positions is not for me.

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  9. This is making rest of my hair fall out.
    Missed the call yesterday, sold NUGT on the open, only to buy back twice during the day. But I do love it so. Hope it holds a couple days so I can go outside because I am starting to get stinky.

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  10. I haven't been able to time the trades well enough. I am often not available at the close and to try and keep up I go after hours and it is working against me. I have no sense of what we are trying to accomplish. The next move I make I think I will sell at any profit and considering it risky to hold for more than a day or two.

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  11. I have certainly shared Elaine's frustration this summer.

    But the reality is that Gary made the right call yesterday and sidestepped this morning's decline.

    He also made the right call in getting back in based on today's surprising strength in miners. I was skeptical yesterday but bought back in today.

    The fact is that we are at the top of a C-wave and our trigger fingers are going to have to be very itchy.

    I personally am looking forward to the D-wave so I can go all in and go old turkey for a few years, but we're not there yet.

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  12. There are some folks that believe that the only place one is allowed to make money is in precious metals. Personally I could care less whether I make money in stocks precious metals, oil, or shorting. I just want to be profitable.

    Those folks are going to buy every dip and they are going to look like geniuses until they get caught in the D-Wave, and then they are going to lose most or all of their profits because of their perma strategies.

    I simply refuse to make that mistake. I "think" gold is going to consolidate, and the action in the miners today suggests that it is going to consolidate, and if that's the case we will continue to ride GDX until I think it's time to exit (which will almost certainly be early).

    But just because I think it's going to do something doesn't mean I should ignore the warning signs that popped up yesterday and the extreme sentiment levels we are seeing.

    The fact is all we did was lighten up and miss all of the pain of today's early sell off and then buy back at almost exactly the same level we sold.

    If you missed the sell signal yesterday then yes your entries and exits are not perfect. But you still made the correct choice because without the benefit of hindsight the miners could have just as easily continued down hard today. If that was the case then you would have been very glad to have sold this morning.

    Unfortunately trading in hindsight is only good for chest beating and I told you so's. It doesn't work in the real world.

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  13. If you can't deal with all the trades, it may make sense to just go to a core position (33% or something) and wait for the D-wave bottom to go to a full position.

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  14. Gary,

    I am not criticizing you, I know you are making money and those able to follow you exactly are making money.

    I still have GDX in an account that I missed the sell on last Friday or whenever. I bought it at $62. I'm going to hang on to that for the short term.

    I agree that I don't care how I make money, with PMs, QQQs what ever, it's just too much for me to manage this level of trading right now.

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  15. Gary,

    I have to say that your calls have been amazing. Even if I missed some of them and it costed me sleep and anxiety, I really, I mean really aporeciate your calls even 5 minutes before the close.
    Thanks again for being so generous of your time and knowledge !

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  16. I also don't care how I make money as long as I AM making money. Gary you have been accurate in your calls but catching them in real time has been a real issue here lately. What I would like to get a sense of is your decision making process so that I could also reciognize a warning sign in real time.

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  17. One suggestion that might be attractive to many. Just buy and hold a solid core, you know old turkey, it's a bull market after all! There ain't no bull market like a Gold Bull Market. Maybe a solid 15% bullion 15% miners core holding that you never worry about. Only time you think about selling it is when the cycles fail signalling a D-Wave.

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  18. Poly --

    "...Only time you think about selling it is when the cycles fail signalling a D-Wave..."

    Please, how do you identify cycles failure and what does it mean?

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  19. I think some peoples expectations on this site are grossly inflated. Garys subscription cost is absolutely pittance when compaed with the profits ive already made after being here a month. His service is probably worth ten fold, his calls and analysis has been first rate. He is only a handful of guys that i sit up and take note of and he is providing a sterling service at bargain prices. If you miss his posts then maybe you should devote more time to trading and if you cant do that then maybe consider whether this is the right game for you. Gary is typically not a high volume trader but his manouvering has saved/made people a lot of money. So stop the winging.

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  20. Does GDX actually hold the stocks, or is it a derative, or partial derative? Seems like most any mining mutual fund would make a good choice for a core holding. Remember the discussion about buying miners in leu of storing physical gold burried in your back yard?

    SLW is 4.85% of GDX and the #6 holding.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=GDX+Holdings

    Now makes a lot of sense for a least a 10% core holding of miners and bullion deravitives. Remember the discussion about using stops to exit positions?

    Stops can be just mental reminders to get out after a 3% loss. GDX opened down about 2.5% this morning, so I knew to wait to see if the gap would fill this morning before selling.

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  21. DP,

    In very simple terms, obviously $1,706 is now a DCL, so if this daily cycle were to violate that low, it would be a failed daily cycle. With gold's weekly (IT cycle still a relatively young 10 weeks, it would signal a significant 6-12 week decline ahead before finding a ICL.
    As you can see, even with a parabolic looking run to date, the cycles are in a favorable alignment and should be bought/trusted, until proven otherwise.

    As for core holdings, I love the great mutual fund TGLDX, it's the number 1 performer over 10 years. $10k invested worth over $130k, buy and hold, D-Wave's and 8 yr cycles included :)

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  22. check this out!


    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries-tips-and-gold-wonkish/

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  23. Poly, what % of your funds do you always have at a core gold position? Thank you for your advice

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  24. The euro is looking extremely weak in the face of a huge stock rally. Odds favor short trades in QQQ and in SPY no matter what our feelings are telling us.

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  25. ...and since gold has clearly decoupled from the dollar, it could be bullish for the metal.

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  26. I have 10 accounts to deal with. 10 minutes before close stresses me but not as much as 5. Great calls Gary, do not change a thing.

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  27. DP - the chickens are real, 44 hens and one very lucky rooster.

    Now 50% in SPY and 16% in NUGT for Obama's speech. Will take NUGT up if gold breaks over 1840. Too many poor technology reports recently for me to buy the Qs.

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  28. Yep, Swiss Franc supporting Euro gives both gold and Euro a boost. USD caught a bid from the 8% Swiss Franc devaluation.

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  29. pressurepoint, do you care to share who the "other handful" are please?

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  30. Elaine,

    This is the routine I have established and I hope it helps.

    I wake up at least 30 minutes before the market opens and check to see if there is any portfolio changes and what the premarket is doing. The first and the last hour of trading is the most important. Also during the last hour of trading, I will check constantly for any portfolio changes (regardless to what was said in the previous nightly report). After the close of market, I summarize my allocations on a sheet of paper so I will have it available just in case I need to make any quick moves the next day. Lastly, I read the nightly report.

    It is a lot of work. You can't let someone else management your money because no one cares more about your acct then yourself. I have made a lot of mistakes (missing calls or thinking I know better than Gary) but I am learning to be a better investor/trader all around with Gary. Gary has been great with navigating thru this volatile and tough market. Elaine - I hope this helps.

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  31. The 9 day displaced MA on gold held on a closing basis, and the gold stocks had a huge outperformance. So far Gary's triangle call is right on.Gold also retraced 61.8% of it's most recent rally which is still normal behavior.

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  32. Bernanke is giving a speech tomorrow, so we might just get a nice spike in gold prices :oD

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  33. Eamonn, Is that an unexpected speech or is that Obama's speech?

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  34. Bernanke has a scheduled speech tomorrow in Minneapolis

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  35. Gary missed an entire summer rally in gold and also silver (that was 60% in AGQ and in DGP - the suggestion to sell silver was given after the crash, and the suggestion to sell gold was given at the absolute bottom of a short term correction). There were a few other trades over the course of the summer, but these were usually exited quickly again, and therefore profits (if any) were less than marginal. Unless there was some enormous trade between two weeks ago (when I canceled my subscription and now), the trades of the past six months were leading to absolutely nothing. Now, you can all write what you want including your devotion posts to Gary and Gary can write as many 'know it all' posts as he wants, but these remain the facts - end of story. Not for one second I believe that Gary is making a cent more in this market than... say Beanie. Fact is also, if you write a public blog, give financial advice, and charge for subscriptions, you might as well be criticized if practically none of what you write pans out.
    Hate me for my posts, I couldn't care less. Good trading to all.

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  36. basil, you really are a gigantic pain in the arse

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  37. Basil,

    Please put away your Superman cape. We don't need saving.

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  38. Veronica,
    Thanks for your updates. How low do you see this drop in gold retracing?

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  39. E,
    just stating the facts. I am not surprised that these are giving you pain.

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  40. Basil,

    People can read their own account statements. If they're making money, they know it. If they're not making money, they will probably move on to the next guru. Either way, your opinion on the matter probably doesn't make much difference.

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  41. Oh please don't respond to him ... This is the only reason he's back. Please ignore him and maybe he will finally go away.

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  42. Thank you David.
    Avann, you have the common sense that I do not. Lord, I wish he would just go away. Finally

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  43. If the two posts a month I write give you so much pain, you are really in trouble. Just don't read them would be one way to go about it. Also, I don't need to read anyone's account statements, I just read Gary's posts and compare them to how the charts look like soon thereafter. For that very reason, even if I'd stay away, your pain would unfortunately still be there.

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  44. Basil,
    The model portfolio hasn't had a losing trade in a long time. Even missing the top in silver was still a huge winner if you entered back in the fall when most of us did.

    So what if we missed a big chunk of the last rally in gold it was mostly given back in two days where we got back on BTW (miners).

    If this does turn out to be a top your perma view will get you caught in the D-wave while the rest of us will have locked up our profits.

    I've been doing this a long time and you aren't going to side track me with this nonsense.

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  45. At Ease,maybe today was the bottom or marginally down tomorrow/Friday? If we see much more weakness my system will go to a sell. The 9 day displaced average is flat to down through the 13th and will start to rise then.

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  46. I am so grateful I found Gary' site

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  48. basil
    you really are a petty little man. why even follow this site any more if you no longer are a subscriber and think gary gives lousy advice? i would hope that you have better ways to spend your time than trolling sites trying to start arguments. you must be a sad lonely man and i feel sorry for you.

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  50. Gary,
    to begin with, you once wrote that you're doing this for ten years, and that is not that long a time by my standards. I really don't know your long term track record, but your short term track record most certainly fails to convince. I am not a perma gold bull; in fact, it was your perma D-wave talk for the past five months that talked me out of gold; it was your only trade I followed, and it cost me handsomely. As we all know, every one is responsible for their own trades (no need to write another ten posts about that) but please 60% in DGP and AGQ? If that D wave will never happen you just lost your positions in both silver and gold and will have to buy back much higher. Of course, there will be corrections to come, but 21 in silver and 1200 or whatever in gold - that's Prechter talk.

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  51. Mikezza,
    why getting personal? If you write posts like this, it is obvious that you are writing posts about your own self. You are just projecting on me. That's psychology 101.

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  52. Basil,

    If Gary's advice is losing money for you, you should stop visiting this site.

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  53. David,

    I don't spend much time visiting this site. I'll be back once in a while and write the comment that I feel like writing. Thank you.

    ok, folks, I leave you to it.

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  54. basil
    you're on to me. guilty as charged. seriously man, if you can't see that your just carrying a grudge that you can't let go of, than no post is going to talk any sense into you. let me ask you this though. what is your motivation for continuing to visit this site and making posts putting down gary's track record? just get over it and move on.

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  55. Yea I got hurt a little today too. I am working all day and no where near the computer so My positions sold at the open because of my stops.

    This is the Game and very difficult times, if you stick with it and have a long term view we are all going to win.

    Going to bed

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  56. mikezza,

    not putting it down, just summing it up.

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  57. Does this "theory" make sense?

    The SNB devalues their currency, shooting up the value of their gold in Franks. They then dump gold on the open market driving down the price of gold in US dollars. They then use US dollars to buy back that gold much cheaper.

    A different type of currency war with gold center stage.

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  58. Leilani,

    Thank you for your help. It is sound advice. I am comfortable staying out of the market for a month or more at a time, which is what I will probably do.

    The trades have been too rapid-fire for me and I have a lot of other things happening.

    You are correct, my money is more important to me than it is to anyone else.

    Best

    Elaine

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  59. basil
    and the need to do it every few weeks? seems like you either want to keep reminding gary that his advice lost you money or you are trying to talk other potential subscribers out of joining. existing subscribers can judge gary's advice for themselves.

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  60. @at ease,

    Hard to answer the core allocation question as I have numerous accounts (trading/retirement/Long Family) that have different strategies/objectives. In the non trading accounts it's as high as 30% now. The trading accounts are always in with core positions too except in the timing for expected ICL's were they would be zero.

    Gold doing well in the A.H.......although its Asian trading :)

    Good night.

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  61. Basil,

    I lost 35+% of my account (in the may silver crash) because of my ignorance. Then Me and my roomate found gary. By following the model portfolio I have made all that money back. I used greater position sizes than recommended.

    but I MADE ALL THAT CASH BACK. You must be drowning your sorrows because Gary and his moves work.

    If you have nothing positive to contribute just chill out, relax and stop blaming others for your mis(sed)fortunes.

    or go play the lottery, better here of making money.

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  62. Poly,

    Good move on adding on today's puke. I also added to my GDX near the low and put back on the NUGT before the close, took it off yesterday near the high. I took your post on your adding to GDX as confirmation of my move. Keep firing off those posts, good to see you so active on the blog at this point in gold, I'm sure many would agree with me that, as you always say, you continue to give us some perspective and it's appreciated.

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  63. WW,
    Keeping busy? Rarely see you these days.

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  64. Gary... just keep doing what you are doing! This is a very difficult market, and requires quick changes to stay ahead. Your ability to react to the changing markets is first rate.

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  65. Miyagi,

    Been trading more frequently during the day, working on the house also, was doing electric last few days. Trying to stay on top of all your posts, hope to be back on the blog more again soon, need a rest so probably be trading less next week. We have some lottery calls to catch up on!

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  66. Interesting view on commodities:

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-martenson/2011/09/07/commodities-look-set-to-rocket-higher

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  67. Thoughts on the GOP debate tonight? Here are mine: http://i.imgur.com/PEz3U.jpg

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  68. Here's a great article on gold, manipulation, miners and physical vs. ETFs:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/your-gold-teeth/

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  70. I have to side with basil on this one... to read Gary`s posts and opinions was fun over the last 12 month on the subscription site but it has more distracted me from my own analysis and opinions which of course is not Gary`s fault. Maybe it is a very good idea like ``PressurePointAdmin`` pointed out to increase the subscription price substantially to raise the level of his website and timeliness of Gary`s trading calls. Compared to others I have to say it could use some professional help from web designers to increase functionality but I guess Gary is a simple kind of guy and thats how he likes it. For me unfortunately it was not worth it to continue my subscription but I hope you guys and of course Gary will make a lot money in 2011.

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  72. You were to me disasterously wrong, Gary.

    I called a right shoulder slump and bounce. That's exactly what happened.

    Because you don't see reality the way I do, I will read your comments about what I see the same way I would anyone else... of no weight. This time, I lost my trust in myself and abandoned my positions.

    Next time, I'll call it elsewhere, and that's just peachy. The bottomline is that I win in most of my calls. This was a high probability call which you challenged. You do your thing, which I subscribe to and which I see as helpful when I can't see. But when I see, like others, I'll go with "me" as the winner.

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  73. Not worth it?! If you're managing a portfolio of more than a few thousand dollars you'll have made more than the yearly subscription fee on the GDX trade alone by the morning bell.

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  74. you do that slumdog, gary has subscribers , you do not,i hate easytalking, mario.

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  75. Poly --

    Thanks for clarifying "failed cycles" meaning and sharing your tools and understanding.

    I appreciate the value you are
    bringing to the blog.

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  77. Farm Girl --

    I wish I were in your rooster shoes :)

    Please don't boil him for the soup.

    It's an amazing world we are living in -- Farm Girl is feeding chickens in between of international trades.

    Which part of the Planet you live in, BTW?

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  78. Brutus I completely understand your choice in discontinuing ... I do not agree but I get it. However, how exactly would increasing the subscription help to make gary's calls any better?
    Id also like to point out the probably very many subs do not have time or tools to do their own analysis (me) so what Gary offers to us is indispensable, for those of you that believe you can read and analyze the market better then Gary ... Good for you and good luck. From the rest of us who cannot ... Thank you Gary!

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  79. If I'm not mistaken, Slumdog said he's not even a subscriber, and Basil has flip-flopped being a sub then unsubscribing a couple times.

    They're crybabies if you ask me, and Basil's flip-flopping on Gary's subscription is probably something he carries into his trading, never a recipe for success.

    Sounds to me like they don't have any miners. :)

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  80. wow, i guess its beat up gary time again.

    this usually happens after he makes a mistake, not after he picks out 10 winning and one break even trade back to back.

    im 40k up this summer thanks to dipping in and out with the recommendations.

    Do i like the flip flopping, no.

    Do i want to sit old turkey, yes.

    But the bottom line is this blog and subscription does exactly what it supposed to..... make money, and in these conditions thats an incredible achievement imho

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  81. Do these clowns really believe that Gary would only charge $200/year for doing all their trading for them?

    I still think Gary should dump the "model portfolio %", as he cannot know an individuals risk tolerance, so it'll always be too heavy or too light. It should be enough to say he's buying or selling something.

    Raising the subscription price will NOT raise the bar on this blog, instead it'll only give whiners more reason to bitch when they can't exercise enough discipline to make money.

    Enough on that, back to my morning reading.

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  82. Farm Girl,

    Thanks for the article. I'm not long miners because of it, but I sure hope the government starts confiscating gold. The last time that happened, miners exploded higher for years.

    Thumbs up for chickens! We haven't eaten a store-bought, hormone and antibiotic infused egg for years. Chickens are my close second favorite animal after dogs, and the chickens are far more useful. Plus, they never leave the property like dogs will try. :)

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  83. WW, thanks for the note, appreciate it.

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  84. Poly,
    I can't wait to load up for my core position to continue holding. If it weren't for that pesky D wave looming overhead. Thanks for your insights, and explanations, it really helps.

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  85. Alex's chart from yesterday was quite accurate:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/r4gx4mXqbGGa

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  86. once again internals on pm shares look very good as well as gold and silver.

    Poly---thank you 4 your wisdom.

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  87. True SB about chickens, but dogs don't poop all over your car either.

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  88. Nice move up in gold overnight, do we make a triple top soon or finally breakout this time?

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  89. Just getting on after being off for a while...

    Poly, I must say you made an excellent call yesterday.. while everyone else was talking about the direness of the decline, you were buying...now your additions are up some 3% with this mornings opening and you have very close stops... you must be commended for that trade...

    SB, you too are to be commended for the anchor that you are.. you stick to your plan regardless of the daily wiggles...

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  90. just like hui has been consolidating, the opinions of those trading big (smart) money is consolidating too. all those people back from vacation this week are discussing amongst themselves where to attack next. people consolidate every bit as much as the markets they try to trade.

    we'll soon find out what goes where and what pieces will fit together.

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  91. wolf33,


    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/07/7658608-who-do-you-think-won-the-republican-debate-at-the-reagan-library

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  92. basi, you don't beat around the bush at all. Do you?

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  93. DON'T BOIL THE ROOSTER, DO YOU HEAR ME?

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  94. Be serious. She boils one every other day.

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  95. really seems to be stocks vs. gold here. who will win as the preferred medium to escape currency?

    i'm thinking stocks, for the next few days at least. SPY at yesterday's vwap now with postive buy volume divergence day over day.

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  96. Not to put a hex on them, but GDX/$HUI breaking to a new high.

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

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  97. How do you display VWAP? Whenever I select it for overlay on stockchart.com, I get UNDEF...

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  98. you have to make sure the instrument you're charting is actually traded/has volume.

    i.e. chart SPY not SPX, etc.

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  99. I did use SPY, but still get undef for VWAP. Are you using stockcharts.com? Any chance I could trouble you for a print?

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  100. Is it still a gap if it is in the range from 2 days ago?

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  101. hmm. using thinkorswim.

    intraday SPY vwap: 119.88 (changes)

    yesterday daily: 119.47

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  102. Is there anyway to access TSO for free?

    I signed up to TOS, but they just said I have to fund the account for $3k before I can use it. Wonder if they accept gold in the ground? Still trying to pay the rent with bear money winnings.

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  103. yes you can use their software to papertrade for free.

    i think quote speeds are marginally delayed however but unless you're a computer it shouldn't matter.

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  104. Will be very interesting to see if the stockmarket can go higher here together with gold or if gold falls back when the market goes higher?

    And I think that Bernanke will try to take down the dollar today and force the market higher..

    It will indeed be interesting if gold and the market rally together higher..?!

    Take care all!

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  105. Slumdog, that was a good call on gold, I ended up holding on to my futures positions after reading your posts. Gary's call was right on the miners also, and could turn about to be right about forming a triangle. It's a tough market and plenty of opinins. I wouldn't get discouraged over one disagreement.

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  108. basil

    I've more profit again today. if only money weren't so filthy I'd top my dessert with it.

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  109. I dont know what all the moaning is about yesterday and the call to get out and then jump back into nugt!? If anyone read around, a clear explanation for gold's sudden drop overnight yesterday is seen in this graph...

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J1yrBEfNd_Y/TmcDcN2u9MI/AAAAAAAAAnI/8rouIjRglek/s1600/snapshot-880.png

    Gary, you acknowledge their is manipulation in the currency markets but not in metals. Looking at the graph and not at knowing what the currency pair is, I would think any trader would say manipulation. Facts...the big ass 1 min candle, overnight trade when volume is light, all those contracts executed at once within the minute....

    I saw that graph and the facts and took it as a classic shakeout and held onto my nugt positions.

    I know Gary doesn't like reading other people's blogs, especially blogs that cry manipulation more often than not because it clouds his judgement but for the subs, it is beneficial to read a few other people's opinions because Gary ain't perfect before blaming him for flip flopping.

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  110. How do I display VWAP on TOS?

    Signing out for now...
    Researching studies on TOS to figure out how to display RSI and MACD. Already found Slow Stochastics on Lower Studies...
    Oh boy. What fun...

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  112. flip flopping is a sign of intelligence. Americans do not like FF because of laziness. Americans want other people to do their thinking for them.

    and that the gov'ts aim. to make Americans lazy, keep them under-educated and ready to go to war whenever someone flips them the bird.

    re-read platos republic and pay attention to his definition of tyranny. very apt.


    then read manufacturing consent by Noam chomsky. will blow yer mind

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  113. one thing you are seeing are many pm stks raising their dividends

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  114. ALEX,
    are you looking at HL?
    it's on the verge of breakout, when will you buy?

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  115. Whew! Just finished my third day of 8-hour teaching at the United Nations in Italy. I’m exhausted (was able to teach in English though—thank God.). Just thought to pop in to say I am pleased with and sticking with my three horses: QLD (bought more this morning), EUO, and GDX. Each is up today which is unusual, but I’ll take it. I agree we will hit 1260 or so on SPX, and I will probably sell the QLD and go short at that point. I expect/hope to make a lot of money on the short side over the next 12 months. Get a good entry and go Old Turkey with a core. Cover at break even if you have to. Add and cover as appropriate when mini-panics hit.

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  116. things are probably going to be pretty boring until one of these happen:

    /es breaks 1199.75 *AND* /gc breaks 1849.2
    or
    /gc breaks 1868.7 *AND* /es breaks 1180.25

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  117. Well just taggin in to say hello...This market ain't for me...nothing wrong with trading, just too much for my fancy.

    Seems like nothing has changed...in, out, in, out, out....

    Looked forward to a solid set-up soon...but until then falling asleep!

    The big issue is long-term we are set to fall in almost everything, but of course QE may come back at any point too...

    Fun fun times...

    Still holding my core unhedged, but watching gold bounce around like it needs its meds.

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  118. Good to hear from you DG. Try to come by more often if you can....we hardly see you anymore.

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  119. Poly, I am going to add your TGLDX to an old Turkey 401k plans come d wave decline. What do you think about RGLD?

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  120. The only thing I will say about going old turkey on miners are the following.

    1) You still have individual risk...GDX GDXJ not so much, so fine.

    2) Energy costs affect margins...if oil surges due to QE or whatever miners may not do as well

    3) Gov tend to turn on their citizens during times of despair. IF main street and wall street are doing poorly, and gold is up and miners are really soaring, I would expect the gov to tax the crap out of them.

    4) Possibility of seizing gold again, not likely but indirectly very possible. For example if gold is the only asset class increasing, simply stating that gold no longer applies to capital gain rules, and is taxed as income will do enough.

    Therefore in my opinion, the only core that I will hold old turkey is physical gold. Silver I don't think I will every hold as a core again...long-term hold, sure, but not as an old turkey play.

    Just thoughts....

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  121. SB, good suggestion for Gary to remove the model portfolio %'s. That's a decision people have to make for themselves. Doc doesn't have them...

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  122. Keys,

    Seizing gold in 1933 might have been the catalyst for miners to skyrocket. Perhaps it was because miners were the only way to own gold, and people knew gold would be revalued higher.

    Who knows?

    ReplyDelete
  123. Anybody have advice regarding the Perth Mint or other similar vehicles? Seems like a great way to diversify jurisdictions with actual physical holdings... I think this has been asked before so I apologize for the recurring spam :)

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  124. Keys (and other anti-govm't paranoiacs),

    Don't you get tired of your own crap? This congress cannot pass ANYTHING at all. Do you really think that raising taxes on gold (which is a teeny-weeny portion of the market and will bring next to no additional revenues to the treasury) is something that would even make it to the floor of the house?

    Sorry if I sound just a bit peeved but I am so tired of this "confiscate gold" nonsense...

    ReplyDelete
  125. SB,

    Good point...only my point a view of course.

    Your point is another reason why I choose to hold physical...I doubt they will confiscate again, but maybe through taxes...at which point, if things are that bad I may simply renounce citizenship and move on.

    And I am not referring to buying miners ever, just that I know I will not consider an old turkey strategy with them. Different layers I suppose. At the bottom of the D I am sure I will pick something up.

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  126. Harry,
    I agree with your opinion on last night's debate. Major fail.

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  127. Leo,

    First off relax....I didn't say they would confiscate it. I said if the miners were the only profitable business at the point in time due to a severe wall street and main street collapse, they may tax the crap out of it. Governments are known for this…especially miners in emerging markets…

    ReplyDelete
  128. There's another speech today? What is this one all about?

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  129. Mr. M.,
    Yes, Bernanke is speaking today, but nothing much is expected.

    ReplyDelete
  130. According to Yahoo Finance, the markets are hinging on his and prez's speech.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Razvan: Thanks for the invite. I have 11 more training programs in September in five states. October should open up a bit and I can post more often again.

    ReplyDelete
  132. DG --

    What subject are you teaching?

    ReplyDelete
  133. Gary,

    Check on road conditions at your destination in NY before you go. Many areas are flooded and people are being told to stay off the roads. Hope your destination is not affected.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Slumdog,
    All we did yesterday was take profits on a partial position and then completely avoid the scary drawdown and then reenter at almost exactly the same place that we exited.

    You're complaining about avoiding a drawdown?

    Seriously?

    ReplyDelete
  135. Gary,
    You expect a positive reaction to Ben's speech today and Obama's later?

    ReplyDelete
  136. it seems like the entire reasoning behind buying gold at these prices is that bernanke is going to superceed the president & the senate and print 10 gazillion dollars every single time he opens his mouth to say anything anywhere. and when he doesn't it's always "next time".

    truly don't understand it. the market is not collapsing. the demand for US bonds is insane. there is no deflation anywhere. the leading GOP candidate is threatening the fed and spouting nonesense about "keynesism" and that SS is a "ponzi".

    not saying it won't happen, but the chances of it happening any time soon seem really, really small given with respect to how many people think otherwise.

    ReplyDelete
  137. forgive my atrocious spelling and grammar

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  138. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  139. This drop in the markets is not a good sign..

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  140. Prez has already leaked his plan, guess Ben wasn't enough.

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  141. NG: the latest increase in capital costs for Donlin Creek.

    Never liked NG. Plus you have (had?) lots of big hedge funds who may pull out on bad news like this.

    But SVM looks better today, eh?

    Meanwhile RGLD is looking Wheatonish. And NGD is a juggernaut.

    GSS might be a buy today if you don't have a position yet?

    ReplyDelete
  142. Wow....$$$ tagged 200dMA...is this a new IT cylce?

    ReplyDelete
  143. With our holding of GDX, I don't know if I should cheer for the market to go up or for Gold to go up. What affects it more?

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  144. If the market closes near its lows im adding to the SQQQ I put on before the Ben speech. Obama will ignite the next leg down. Taking off the NUGT if miners dont rally into the close.

    ReplyDelete
  145. WW,
    What makes you think of that?

    ReplyDelete
  146. elaine, it's not my intent to detract from Gary's fantastic work and subscription service or to pimp for somemebody else but I am a long time subscriber of another newsletter that has proven itself, to me anyways, for many years now, even accounting for the last two big crashes.

    It involves A LOT less trading than what Gary does and still manages a very sizable return, especially when taking into account volatility and risk.

    The only drawback I can see to it is that the gentleman who runs it is getting long in the tooth and may not be with us for many more years :(

    If you think you might be interested, drop me a line at anicolici*at*hotmail*dot*com.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Miyagi,

    From what im seeing it looks like the market is playing out exactly as it did in 08 when it broke down from the head and shoulders, if it continues we will be seeing a new low around 2300 in the Nasdaq probably next week before a bear market rally begins. I dont think Obama's speech will rally the market tomorrow. Miners are looking tired.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Hmm.. food for thought...
    I don't know how many bear market rally there can be before bear crash.

    ReplyDelete
  149. The HUI is up 1.5% what's "tired" about that?

    The S&P is just trying to get through resistance at 1200 despite a strong dollar. Nothing wrong there that I can see. We don't have any large selling on strength days.

    ReplyDelete
  150. willy wally
    i have a same thoughts as you and expect the market to retest the lows from early august before the real bear market rally starts. wondering why you think the miners look tired though.

    ReplyDelete
  151. On the contrary we have a large Bow day building.

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  152. HUI looks good, but S&P looks like a bear flag.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Does the multiple SoS numbers in many miners today mean you should sell?

    I seem to recall someone yesterday using the paltry BoW numbers in miners yesterday as a buy signal :)

    ReplyDelete
  154. The S&P looks like a successful 1-2-3 reversal and it has a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Miners looks fantastic. GDX, HUI on a long term weekly chart look textbook.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Gold up on no QE3 announcement so it looks as if the Eurotrash are driving the price of gold. This means that gold will only correct when Europe magically solves their problems...

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  157. S&P feels weak Gary, gave up the gains too easily. Will Obama massage the masses tonight?

    ReplyDelete
  158. when I say miners look tired all I meant was that they look like they will be putting in a down day or two if gold consolidates, thats all.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Gary --

    Some of my posts on the premium site marked as "Your comment is awaiting moderation ”

    Did you turn moderation on?

    ReplyDelete
  160. "I seem to recall someone yesterday using the paltry BoW numbers in miners yesterday as a buy signal :)"

    Guilty, I guess you're referring to me. I thought it was significant they were on that list, let's hope it's not now.

    Only it wasn't a buy signal for me, I've been invested for many months, it's all gravy now.

    ReplyDelete
  161. SPY top of BOW list. Remains to be seen if it can regain 120$.

    ReplyDelete
  162. DP,
    No comment moderation isn't on. I see your posts.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Gary,

    HUI is up 2% now, miners woke up...lol :)

    ReplyDelete
  164. Doh! SPY fell through the 118.99$ hole.
    If it's gonna bounce, better start soon.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Gary --

    Not all of them, but just two at 6:54 am and at7:20 am are commented as awaiting for moderation.

    ReplyDelete
  166. WW,
    Buyers defended the breakout. It's unlikely we would even see another test of that level. We should have a lot of upside to go considering the size of the consolidation.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Ok I found them and approved them. I'll ask Gurvir how to turn that function off.

    ReplyDelete
  168. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  169. I just read a report that said gold goes up an average of 10% during Indian wedding season which is end of Sept to November. I do know that Indians and most Asians for that matter buy 24k gold and 18k for a daily wear item. We'll see if this stat holds up...

    ReplyDelete
  170. Right shoulder slump and bounce.
    Filling the gap.
    Real probability it will reverse shortly to stomp the gap.
    Every indicator but one says this 1873 range again is the high.
    But what do I know.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Gary,

    Definitely...I was just thinking maybe a test of the breakout if gold consolidates and if closing near the lows, but looks like may be closing near the highs instead.

    ReplyDelete
  172. SP500 will close gap 1165-1180?

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  173. The dollar is right up against the 200 DMA. This would be the most likely spot to turn back down for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  174. Dollar jumped above upper Keltner bound.

    Shouldn't last long.

    ReplyDelete
  175. gdx looking decent again into the close. im liking this, so take that as a warning sign lol

    ReplyDelete
  176. AAPL and GOOG in the green for sure, but the volume isn't much to write home about. Eyes are for some reason on O-man tonight!

    ReplyDelete
  177. People are getting scaringly too negative...Newspapers, colleagues, famly, everybodyis becoming too negative..Time to shake those bad waves!

    ReplyDelete
  178. Just loaded QQQ for 33% of the account.

    ReplyDelete
  179. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  180. Sophia,

    That tends to happen when we are about to have a global currency crisis. :)

    ReplyDelete
  181. Gary --

    You are right, as always.

    ReplyDelete
  182. DP,

    i added too..

    matt,

    Everybody is spitting on Eur, but the FX level is 20% higher than 1 year ago... Either the dollar is going to rally like a maniac verysoon, or the markets have been overreacting and the rubber band is going to be in full action as soon as earnings come out...

    ReplyDelete
  183. Wm Wallace,

    What is your handle in the premium blog?

    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  184. If this snap-back rally is going to happen, shouldn't we already be well on our way? Seems like the rubber-band might be broken...

    ReplyDelete
  185. Le Fou,

    FromRips2Returns...you yelled at me one day not knowing it was me for telling everyone to listen to Gary stop using the comments section as a blog...lol :)

    I think you said "who made you hall monitor" lol

    ReplyDelete
  186. WW,

    Well, that's embarrassing!

    Sorry,
    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete

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