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Thursday, February 2, 2012

COMMENT CLEANER

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87 comments:

  1. You can add &page=2 into URL to see the second page (201-400) etc...

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  2. WW

    Are you back into UPRO if you long SPX?

    Thank you

    Elaine

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  3. Thanks compwolf ... that works :)

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  4. From King Wold News via hammy's poster, gdo:

    "Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News he received an email from his good friend Alf Field predicting silver would move quickly to the $158 level. Von Greyerz also discussed the initiative in Switzerland to get the Swiss franc backed by 20% gold. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. Here is what von Greyerz had to say about Alf Field’s call for $158 silver: “Eric, overnight I received an email from my good friend in Australia, Alf Field. To his amazement he found the silver chart, from an Elliott point of view, runs in parallel to the gold chart. His count is now very clear that silver will, in the next move reach $158.”
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    Egon von Greyerz continues:


    “Alf’s next target for gold is $4,500 and I think this silver target of $158 makes sense because that would put the gold/silver ratio just under 30. I think we could see Alf’s targets of $4,500 gold and $158 silver this year or certainly in the next 18 months. This is going to be a quick move. In Elliott terms this is the 3 of 3, which is the strongest wave.


    I mentioned to you previously that gold has already broken out to the upside in its 3rd of a 3rd wave. Silver hasn’t quite broken out yet and we need to see silver break above the $36 to $37 area to establish silver has entered this next leg higher, which according to Alf targets $158.


    So, we’re not far away and the way I see silver now it’s going to happen very quickly (the breakout). I agree also with James Turk that once silver clears the level I described, we could see $60 to $70 very quickly. But we should see the more aggressive target of $158 in the next 12 to 18 months.”


    Here a portion of what Alf Field had to say about how silver will get to $158:


    “We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.


    Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).


    The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.”

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  5. Marc Faber was in Winnipeg last week to do a speech at the annual CFA dinner (I was there, but am not a CFA). When it came to talking about precious metals, he said "I sometimes give presentations to a thousand people and none of them own gold -- how can it be in a bubble yet".

    It was a really interesting comment. I remember him back in early 2008 talking about a conference he went to on resource stocks and he pointed out (in real time) that the bouyant atmosphere was exactly like conferences he went to on tech stocks in 2000. He's got a really good sense of market sentiment, so I think his comment on gold above tells a lot as to the potential left in the gold bull market.

    Steve from WInnipeg

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  6. Why are the first comments in this blog always a period?

    Thanks.

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  7. Gary, I should probably post this question on the premium site, but I seem to feel more at home on the public blog ...

    Do you have concerns with oil still being in a quite left-translated cycle?

    Thanks,
    Steve from Winnipeg

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  8. DeMark update for SPX:
    WEEKLY - Coming up on a SELL SETUP 9 next week, with high greater than 1333.47 this week or next needed to perfect the SELL. This will be good for 4 Weeks then.
    MONTHLY - Sequential 13 recorded last month, good for 12 months.
    So, we should see a near term top. Kevin Depew on his twitter feed @kevindepew, thinks we will have 5.5% or so downside (down to 1257), but a lower probability of 11% downside.

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  9. Cool keys

    Dow Bullish % is now beyond nosebleed levels @ 96.6%.  We just need Denise Gartman to be bullish and that should  do it.

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  10. Gartman has been bullish since 1270s

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  11. Gartman might do it, but if Tim Knight gets super bullish it's all over. :)

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  12. Coolkevs, thanks so much for your demark posts! Always appreciate it!

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  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  14. Bill Gross' Feb 2012 Letter

    http://marketmontage.com/2012/02/01/pimcos-bill-gross-february-letter-life-and-death-proposition/

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  15. Silver at 150 and gold 4500 are inevitable if apublic mania materializes, which it will eventually. But if it occurs in the next 18 months wr will be looking at a very difficult quality of life for the Cady majority. I sincerely hope he's wrong.

    With that said, when a mania ensues, I'm hard pressed seeing gold end this bull any less than 12000.

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  16. Sorry bout the typos. I remain a lame texted. It should day vast majority.

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  17. Definition of Ponzi:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/under-twist-fed-has-purchased-91-all-gross-issuance-long-dated-us-treasurys

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  18. slumdog, thanks for sharing. Interesting stuff to say the least!

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  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. Some new ideas.

    http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/02/getting-energy.html

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  22. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/02/getting-energy.html

    Some new ideas

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  23. From slope of hope

    Raw Meat for Starved Bears

    A) If the employment numbers are good tomorrow, no more QE, down she goes!

    B) If the employment numbers are bad tomorrow, QE no work, down she goes!

    C) If the employment numbers are as expected, we go down for the count!

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  24. I believe we are about to see many caught in a B-wave.

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  25. WW, can you please elaborate on "caught in a B wave"? Do you mean, a correction in gold?

    FYI I noticed healthy GLD and IVV (like SPY) SOS numbers in the WSJ.

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  26. Bill,

    Yes, a deep correction that retraces atleast half of the move out of the D-wave bottom (half of the A-wave, which is the advance we are in now). It seems most believe gold is in a runaway move with the stock market.

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  27. Thanks WW. What exactly are you seeing that tells you this? Thanks again.

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  28. Hmm,that would imply a very short dollar cycle. Also a left translated IC in gold.

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  29. Gary, when I look at the $USD daily chart, one thing I notice is that over the last 5 days, we're not going lower. Lots of tails dangling down, but pretty much sideways in terms of market close price.

    Anyways, I don't think that the dollar and gold are 100% correlated, so I hardly watch it now. FYI I'm a beginner trader as you know.

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  30. Bill,

    Looking at the past 10 years of ABCD waves.

    Gary,

    Thats if it were to occur during this gold DC.

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  31. A-waves are 4-8 weeks long, were on week 5.

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  32. Thanks WW. 1 more question please!

    If you believe in the ABCD waves, then are you planning to buy back up the truck and buy/HOLD gold (in some form - GLD, CEF, PSLV, physical) until the C wave is over?

    Why not? Style?

    I ask this because I see you are a day trader on futures. But in this case, if you're right about the C wave, wouldn't one make more money buy buying and HOLDING until the C wave is over?

    Again, I'm a beginner.

    I'm hoping for a B wave correction, so I can buy and hold gold 'till the C is over.

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  33. ww you looking for a short possible in next 4-10 days? I'm out. Not good enough area for me to take a shot at short. Will wait this one until dcl. Of course may scalp a few. And Gary no worry, following model exactly.

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  34. Bill,

    I have two accounts, one I day trade, more like swing trade, and one I hold longer term trades. Through the next C-wave (thats if gold is indeed still locked in the ABCD pattern) I will load the boat with futures, as usual out of bottoms.

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  35. Seems pretty mild for an A-wave top here. All other A-waves rallied past the 68% retracement level.

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  36. Riley,

    I put on a short today at the close (basically just a hedge on my long) in case the jobs number sparks a reversal, if not I will take it off.

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  37. Gary, not sure where one should measure from, but we're well above 68% from the Nov 8th top.

    Also, Gary, are you worried enough about the currencies that you think it's better to buy physical this time around? I worry that what happened to MFGlobal could happen to Schwab. WW, feel free to chime in too.

    Thanks much.

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  38. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  39. Rob,

    basically every A-wave over the last 10 years, except for the 08' advance, was 1.5 daily cycles long.

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  40. FWIW, both Tom McClellan & Marc Faber don't believe the Dec 29 correction in gold is over

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  41. WW,

    Do your views imply a retracement back to the 200 DMA?

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  42. Rob,

    It really depends on how far this A-wave stretches above it. One thing is certain, almost every B-wave retraces atleast half or better of an A-wave. When this A-wave tops we will see where the 200dma is, we'll be watching the 150dma also.

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  43. Keep in mind, the moves in gold have become exaggerated as this bull progressed over a decade, so this A-wave, like the past C-wave, makes one think gold will simply never look back. That hasn't been the case in a decade, so I have to assume that hasn't changed until gold goes mania. Look at how people were reacting to this D-wave, as if gold were going to hell, how do you think most will react to a B-wave? No different, because the advances and declines are very drastic now price wise.

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  44. WW,

    I assume you believe that we are still in the first daily cycle? If so, how far does this 1st daily cycle retrace to?

    WW, I value your analysis. I am taken aback by your views here. It is the first I have read from any of the cycle analysts that believes that we will only have 2 daily cycle (the 2nd failing).

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  45. Some of these people on American Idol are absolutely in space. My cheeks are killing me and my ribs are cracking from laughing at these maniacs. The sad thing is that their own mother's and father's encourage them!!! The "I can sing, when I cant even sing to save my mother's life" has to be inherited, they both have to be missing something in their ears.

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  46. Rob,

    Ask Gary how many cycles he thinks it will take to test the highs, I believe he thinks 2 also. I only know of one A-wave (2002) that had 2.5 daily cycles to top. If I recall, that A-wave had a failed first daily cycle, followed by a second that didnt fail, and then the third failed and entered a B-wave. Also a couple A-waves were made up of right translated cycles.

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  47. The 06' A-wave was only one right translated daily cycle to top.

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  48. WW,

    Thanks for answering my Qs.

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  49. Now the 08' A-wave was a different story, 3.5 daily cycles to top. 3 right translated, the 4th left translated and failed into a B-wave.

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  50. Rob,

    Yes, I do think we are in the first daily cycle. Where it will retrace to, if I had to guess, either topping tomorrow or around 1800. If things get crazy, sky's the limit!

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  51. WW
    I hope your right. I hope we have a few more years of this abcd wave pattern, before the mania. Maybe with qe3 or 4 we can stretch the next 4yr cycle low in 2014, then we just keep going higher from there to a peak in 2016/17

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  52. Haggerty,

    I hope we see another B-wave, and then the next C-wave go mania.

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  53. I do hope the next C-wave is similar to the last one though before it goes mania. QE stretched for a few years before moving into a serious parabolic top. But like Gary said, if the dollar collapses from here, the ABCD pattern may be behind us.

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  54. Gary,

    You got the Stock market having put in a DCL on 1/30, with the dollar still seeking a DCL, how do you reconcile the dollar finding a low soon with the market having bottomed already?

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  55. I've never marked 1/30 as a daily cycle low. I said it might be if a runaway move develops. We still don't have a move to new highs so there is no confirmation of a runaway move yet.

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  56. Gary,

    Yeah I just remembered you mentioning it. Thanks

    If the dollar were not to move above weds high and drop off, would you consider 1/27 as the DCL, fits well with 1/30 DCL in stocks...no?

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  57. Possible the market moves to a new high and then dips into a more normal DCL with gold.

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  58. Don't you think that the ECB and the BOJ will intervene if the dollar collapse too fast?

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  59. Good article (from a good site) that argues that gaps on the Dow indicate a market becoming disfunctional (and about to head lower):

    www.marketanthropology[PUT.DOT.HERE]com/2012/01/37th-parallel.html

    He shows how the presence and growth of gaps in the 30's occurred during a sharp bear mkt rebound (like we have and are having). And how the gaps indicated stresses growing.

    Those gaps have now started to appear and grow. (In the 30's it resulted in a 40% stock mkt drop.)

    Now earlier you might recall my post from somebody else who showed a 31 year (approx) cycle in low P/E ratios (gary never commented on it). And how we are now due for another low. This also argues for an imminent stock decline by a rather large amount.

    So just something to think about.

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  60. No way Bennie and the inkjets lets the market crash. 300-400 pts on the S&P, sure maybe, but an all out crash?
    Nah. A Zimbabwe melt up is more likely at this point than a melt down.

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  61. Germany says Greece not doing what is required of it and hence no meeting
    news now

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  62. WW, thanks for the alert to A wave topping signs.

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  63. WW, Timeframe wise, how long do B waves last, month, weeks?

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  64. Beenie posted on twitter this AM that he is going long SPY. Could be telling...

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  65. W2, at ease and friends...please check SMT website, Gary has just posted something important

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  66. Coolkevs

    Looks like we are going to satisfy the higher close for the Demark trigger.

    Should be interesting to see the SoS # today on SPY and AAPL. Huge gap to fill on AAPL.

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  67. Gary,

    what do the job #'s mean to you?

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  68. Eric,
    I think something "unexpected may be happeing".

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  69. At Ease,
    It is very late in the dollar cycle plus gold would seem to be telling us that the dollar is about to bottom.

    Seems like a pretty good trade to me.

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  70. Your post is really interesting, you have your own ideas, i love reading it. Thanks for such a cool blog. Damiana

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