The European Super Highway of Debt These info-graphics shows how much banks borrowed to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain (PIIGS). Europe is in a deep crisis, and this shows how much must be repaid.
I posted this the other day, just thought I would re post it again for those who may have missed it, the only thing thats changed is the DC trendline is now higher than the 150dma."Just want to point out (besides trying to pin point it in realtime) a few significant levels im looking at for a DCL in gold now that the move into a DCL may be underway...First of all, as I have mentioned many times in the past, a break of the 10dma this late in the timing band for a DC top almost always indicates that the move towards a DCL is in effect.If the requirement for a DC trendline break is fullfilled, the 150dma and $1700 handle will be breached, they have basically all converged.If the 150dma is indeed breached, below that we have both the C-wave 23.6% and the current Daily Cycle 38.2% Fib levels at $1673, which is also the 11/22 DCL pivot.If that Fib level is breached (personally I dont put too much faith in them as hard support)we have the 50dma currently at $1664, which I have much more confidence in for a firm bottom.If the 50dma is breached under heavy selling pressure we have the 200dma not far below, if this were the case most likely the 200dma (or slightly above it) will mark the bottom and give us a key reversal that will close at or above the 50dma.A into B waves are even more tricky to navigate than D into A waves...one A-wave daily cycle or two? Maybe three! If two the second possibly fails and one is caught in a B-wave...you know the deal.Wouldn't it be great if gold was just entering the bubble phase and the ABCD pattern was abolished?"February 4, 2012 11:15 AM
Stoker,We'll see :)
If this DCL is as deep as I expect the 150dma will be breached.
Gary,Though I dont trade the dollar, nice job last night :)
Stoker,I have the 150dma at 1702.10 on Gold futures.
WW,interesting. I have it at 1706.38 for the April contract on Tradestation.
W2,If i may ask, what level do you expect in this Gold´s DCL ? Thks
Neo,I laid out my expectations in the post above, there will be a number of bottoms, we have one here, pin pointing the final is tough, so I buy all of them with break even stops...but keep in mind I trade futures so I can do that.
20 sma for GOLD is $1704 we hit it-NETDANIA has it looking that we broke FEB 7th lows on LIGHTER volume on 2 hr chart...looks like lighter on a 4hr (but the 4 hr finishes at 10 a..m. eastern) and reversal .Could that be it?? I'm not sure if volume on NETDANIA is accurate anyways.
at ease,I can recognize bottoms looking at a chart in realtime, whether or not it is the FINAL bottom I cant say, so like I said above I buy each bottom immediately when I see it with a break even stop.
I am currently long out of this bottom.
WW: Do you wait for a tag of the SMA to go long or just getting "close enough"? For example we didn't quite make it to the 150 this morning.Feels like we haven't really seen any panic selling, which suggests we have a sharp move down ahead of us.
If the stock market is just beginning its move into a DCL as I mentioned yesterday I was expecting to happen today, then gold is headed lower also, maybe not today, but next week.
Ah you just answered my question :)
Ver,Today's bottom wasn't on the 150dma (I believe because the final bottom is not in yet) I bought this bottom simply because I recognize it.
Perhaps we'll get a good old fashioned Sunday night pukefest.
at ease,I didnt post my long here, happens to fast.
WW, how can you recognise a bottom in real time?
Eamonn,Email me tonight.
Bought some ZSL @ 10.35. Nothing serious. Just doing a little gambling. Odds seem fair ZSL will see at least a small short term pop.
Ok WW, will do. You Giant Brain
OT:How baseballs are madehttp://www.reliableplant.com/view/25724/how-baseballs-are-manufacturedThought I'd share with all u baseball fans out here.
AAPL is trying so hard to print $500
The 8:30am low in gold was tempting (about 7000 contracts stopped out), but I didn't bite. I'm still expecting something sub 1700 to purchase.
I'm going to start to nibble here, and bring my core position to around 50%.I've been trying to get cute here over the last 6 months and it's done nothing but really cost me money.I think Gary said it a couple of weeks ago, on a long term chart when you look at where the HUI is to the price of Gold it is selling at a discount, For example GLD in mid 2010 was at 120 ish and the HUI was at 500......GLD sits at 167 and the HUI is at 524. I really don't think we are not going below the recent lows
I think we might test the lows on the HUI but not waterfall past them.
WW,I consider myself an avid chart watcher – primarily 5 min futures charts – when trying to time daily tops and bottoms. But for the life of me, I am unable to see what you see when it comes to a daily trend change. There are many occasions where I get whipsawed to death, get discouraged and then miss the move entirely. I have been doing this for 20 years, so I am no spring chicken. I do okay overall, but geez your calls put me to shame.If you would be so kind as to throw some scraps of techniques or pointers my way, I would be forever email@example.com
Matt,Yes definitely, just bear with me and as soon as I get a chance I will email you, I will try this weekend ok :)
In the past I mentioned many times, when gold puts in a daily bottom (not a daily cycle bottom, just the bottom for the day), it almost always retraces back up to the 150-200SMA on a 5 min chart, we see that right now. Thats not to say it wont move above it, but as you can see there is a run back to the 200sma and hard resistance. I spoke of how I often take a trade out of the bottom and take it off at the 200sma on a 5 min.
Take your time. Kudos.
If gold were to move decisively back above $1735 I would take into consideration that the DCL may now be behind us, but that depends on what type of pressure if any gold comes under if the stock market continues to drop out next week.
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I totally see that... it bounced off the 200 at around 1726.5. The real question is how did you know it was a daily bottom.
If gold chops around at this level for the rest of this session, I expect out of the open Sunday night we will see a test of the 1735 area, if the DCL is in front of us we will most likely see a reversal at that level (if not before) as gold continues to fall out and attack the 150dma. If the DCL is behind us we should see gold move above $1735 fairly easily and push higher...I have some targets for a top in mind for the next DC.
Matt,When we talk I will explain.
WW,Thank you for your contribution to the blog. If possible, may I please me included in your email to Matt? Much firstname.lastname@example.orgLeilani
at ease,1735-37 was last night's resistance and pivot.
Out of my gold long here, just watching and waiting now.
WW,I've been quietly following/appreciating your posts along with everybody, but now if you're doing the email thing, throw me in there (email@example.com). May be it'd be better if you just post your explanations so we all could see & learn. There's so few of us that we couldn't move the market with what we learn from you, or could we !
ww.I second Quy's suggestion.Thanks, Jenny
TZ, have you ever done a backtest on parabolic sar? If you would have, you would find that the wins are only 45%. Not exactly a great % to build a long term strategy on. I have always said my system does use elements of sar but is using other parameters also. How would you explain my system when it holds wityhout a stop? Can sar do that?
don't like the high volume in TVIX without much movement...it gapped up and then all this volume and no movement...not liking it
TVIX is a derivitive of the VIX. Arbs aren't going to let it decouple from the VIX.
if SLV closes here, it will close below the 10 SMA for the first time this year...
WW, If it possible I want to be in that list too. firstname.lastname@example.org
W2,me 2 please!DudetteUK@gmail.com
Im not starting an email list, although I humbly appreciate the interest. :)
Matt,You see gold riding the 150SMA on the 5 min now?
WW --I am looking at 150 point SMA for GLD, and it is not riding on it.What's wrong with me?
WW, Are you thinking of any "Newsletter" or " Trading Alerts" service? I am about a year watching your amazing trading. I think you can be quite successful in that business.I would be the first in line to subscribe to it.Here is my email in case...email@example.com
...at ease --Yes, that's 5 min chart.Maybe 150 SMA should be DAILY?
WW,Will you sell your gold if we break today's lowor is it too late in the cycle?
DP,/GC 5 minute chart, gold futures.Any time you see me talking about gold I am always looking at /GC.
Todd,Look a couple posts up, I mentioned a little while ago that I am out of my long now. I was actually short from near the top, mentioned it to Riley the day gold topped, covered short this morning and went long, which I took off a little while ago. As you know if you read my posts a few days ago I warned of the top (actually the day gold topped), I continued to warn that we were in the "topping process" and that there was further downside, and mentioned earlier that gold may continue to fall out if the stock market has begun moving into a normal DCL, if not ICL. If your long and you take it off here there is the chance you get left behind, but if you hold you are caught in a DCL and must hold until the bounce out of the DCL with a stop in place, because the question is will the next DC make a new high or not.
Thanks for your response WW.I bought this morning just under 1710. But, I am considering putting a stop at today's low. However, I am reluctant because I don't have a gold core and I am scared to lose it.
SPY is NOT showing up on the BoW list. However, GLD is with about 75.
GLD was on BoW yesterday also.
Gold will be bought throughout this entire DCL.
Todd,If you went long at $1710 you either are in near the bottom or not, gold wont drop back down to that level if the DCL is behind us, if not there is no reason to give back anything from here, so put your stop at break even.
If gold moves back below $1710 its almost certainly because a DCL is ahead of us.
W2,no need to put me on your mailing list, I was just kidding!BUT, I would love to see you type " a bottom is in" like you did twice in the last 6 months!Good luck for Monday, will think of you and wait for your post to make sure that you are OK, my friend!! LOL
Has anyone done a retrospective analysis of BOW/SOS numbers in relation to IC Tops and bottoms to try and tease out the sensitivity of this indicator? Data on WSJ goes back a couple years. Anyone know where we can get more distant data? I'm interested in putting together some data on the topic.
The stock market is pressuring gold right now, this continues next week and gold will continue to fall out.
Sophia,Thank you my friend :)Surgery has been moved back now to Feb 27th.
OH COOL, YOU CAN HAVE A RELAXING WEEKEND THEN!
They are both predictive but the SoS often comes early. The BoW tends to be a much better timing tool, but only for the SPYder's.Tops are pretty tough for anyone to get right with much consistency. So when things start to get stretched you see smart money start to sell into rallies. It doesn't mean they will pick the exact top. Just that they know it's getting dangerous. The mistake that many retail traders make is they think they have to catch 100% of the rally. If they exit youand the market keeps rising they freak out and talk themselves into buying back in. That's usually about the point where the market tops.I've been trying for weeks now to tell people that it's too dangerous to continue pushing the long side. Let someone else catch the rest of the rally. It's just not worth taking the risk of getting caught in an intermediate degree decline. I've been around a long time and I know what happens during intermediate declines, and it's not pretty.I want to make sure I have plenty of cash to buy at the bottom of one of those, instead of ride it down, freak out, and sell at the bottom.
WW,Had to step away for a moment. I did see the 150 crawl. I was also looking at the range bound between 1720 and 1725. I suspect we may have settled within that range for the day.BTW: Sorry for getting the blog started on the email chain.
at ease,Yes moved from Feb 20th to Feb 27th now.Gary,Just keep drilling.
Matt,Now if you look you'll see gold found support on the 75sma on the 5min.
75sma on the 5 minute breached and fallout.
LOL... Hold on. I had to add some more MA to my chart. I see a 15 min pause at the 75, a breach and retest.
WW and others --I am struggling to get /GC 5 min graph.The free service I have is www.barchart.com, and here is the set of futures they offer:http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Gold_Futures/GCWhich one of them is /GC ?
Volume continues to pour into the VIX, with the market holding.
DP,The April contract.
WW --Here is April 5 min contract.Does the crawl looks "right":http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GCJ12&style=technical&p=I&d=L&im=5&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%28150%2C%29&chartindicator_2_code=SMA&chartindicator_2_param_0=150&chartindicator_2_param_1=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
Enough of bowing to European Pressure, its time for Greek Prime Minister to stand up for its people and reclaim Sovereignty
TVIX went parabolic on the 5 min chart.
DP,Yes, on the end you see gold crawl at a slight decline the 150sma, then you see it break out and hit the 200sma then drop to the 75sma.
TVIX 5 min parabola just cracked.
WW --How do you know that April contract is /GC?Is it like the definition?
AAPL finally went red.
DP,Watching it in realtime is a whole different picture than a snapshot. Using MA's in historical charts tells a whole different story.
DP,/GC is the symbol for gold futures, the April contract is being heavily traded now.
WW --"...Watching it in realtime is a whole different picture than a snapshot. Using MA's in historical charts tells a whole different story..."Can you please elaborate a bit on that?
Is anyone like me, staring at the hollow red candle on GLD's daily chart, wondering if it's safe to buy w/a tight stop?
Gary,Great call on the USD last night! Thanks and have a great weekend!
DP,I explained this a couple days ago to Arun somewhat at length, but to keep it simple...ie. If im trading gold futures and gold is approaching the 150dma in the after hours session and bounces off it making a $20 run to the upside, then during the daily session it retraces back down and breaches it to the downside $20 and bottoms well below it, looking at a historical daily chart the following day it would seem as if the 150dma was completely ineffective during that session.
Bill,All you can see on a GLD chart is a gap fill and pullback.
Bill,Look at a chart of gold futures or spot, paints a clearer picture.
The miners are not acting like this is the bottom of the gold correction. I suspect gold will test the Dec. low sometime in the next month or two when the stock market puts in the next ICL. This is what big C-waves do. They make you hungry for the party to resume. It never does. At least not before many many months of consolidation and whipsawing. I doubt we will see anything but sideways to down chop till the fall and maybe not even until next spring. It's going to take a long time to consolidate that 2 1/2 year C-wave.
Gary, Thanks, good to hear miners holding up for now. Have a good weekend!
WW --What I understand you assume that Moving Averages must be built using data from CONTINUOUS 24h trading, not just the daily sessions. That's what exactly is done by barchart.com, I guess.So, the barchart.com graphs must have the same value versus MA's as a your continuous data feed, I guess.I really like and appreciate your posts. Especially you presence in the open blog makes its atmosphere nice and polite.I wish you successful surgery and hope you recover fast.Good luck!
WW:is it possible for you to post your chart with all those dmas? That would be a great help to us newbies.thanks
Gary said:"This is what big C-waves do. They make you hungry for the party to resume. It never does."I've had my party hat on since the Dec bottom, the party didn't start for those who chose not to come.
WW, Be sure to rest up for your party to come! Have a good weekend.
at ease,I dont think Gary said anything that suggests miners are holding up, the miners are telegraphing further downside for gold, that means they are going with it.
WW, thanks for that. Despite the fact that GLD only trades during NY, whereas gold trades 24x7, a hollow red on GLD is a pretty good signal. I ended up NOT buying because price is below the 10d EMA, and because the PPO (MACD) is now negative.
... at ease, fyi the daily MACD for GDX turned negative today.
Gary, you might be right about how this year unfolds. 2008 was such a year long correction. The huge debt would also suggest this is possible. But, if Ben starts QE3, I think gold could shoot up. And history suggests that govm'ts ALWAYS choose printing over austerity. Also, since this is an election year, if Ben wants his job, he'll probably print to make stocks go up, making gold go up further. I think you're right about the S&P tanking here for a month or 2 - taking gold down w/it - but I think that will be it - gold will start it's C wave up, beause Ben will be printing by summer.Who knows. I'm just saying that I expect it. But I'll trade whatever happens.
Bill,Price will be well below the 10dma if gold puts in a deeper DCL, if you wait for it to move above the 10dma you will have missed a huge move out of the DCL.
Gold printed a weekly swing high this week as did the miners.
The previous IC cycle in gold was very short at 13 weeks. Instead of week 6 what if gold is on week 19 of a slightly stretched IC to balance out the short cycle that bottomed in Sept.?4 or 5 more weeks down bottoming along with the stock market would still put gold in the normal timing band for an ICL.I think it's a mistake to ignore the stock market cycle. Any time stocks move down into an ICL it is a big event that effects virtually every other asset class.Occasionally gold can resist that kind of selling pressure to some extent. The miners are always affected, usually severely. A lot of people seem contnent to ignore the fact that the HUI was unable to regain the 200 DMA despite a furious rally in gold. The 50 DMA has fallen below the 200 and both are declining. And now the miners have dropped back below the 50 DMA.Does anyone really think gold is on the verge of a push to new highs or even a test of the highs with the mining sector acting so badly?
The miners have been consolidating the whole time gold was busy churning out a 3 year advance higher. The real question is, does anyone really think miners will go parabolic without gold going psycho.
Not a chance.
>>>> Does anyone really think gold is on the verge of a push to new highs or even a test of the highs with the mining sector acting so badly? <<<<<Not a snwoball's chance in hell, IMO. It will bounce around but a test of $1,900+? No way.
MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT + SENSEX + SHANGHAIhttp://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/
Gary, thanks for pointing out the swings in the Weeklies.Something is wrong with the miners. Since Jan 1, SPY is up 7%, GLD up 10% and SLV up 20+%. But GDX is up only 6% - even lower than SPY.Plus the volatility in GDX is INSANE.I don't know if it's HF's shorting GDX, or if there's no more gold in the ground, or labor costs rising, or whatever. I won't trade GDX. And I don't trust GDX as a sign of GLD doing anything anymore.I'm just going to trade GLD and SLV from here out. Just me.
Further ... I again agree w/Gary that the SPY will take GLD down for the next few weeks or months. But I think that GLD will put in a higher low on the daily chart, or a divergent lower low, and if/when it does, I'm buying 1/2 of my position in PHYSICAL bars, the other 1/2 in CEF. Price will below the 150d EMA. No more screwing around for me. I've f'd up for way way too long, and lucky me the world hasn't collapsed. But it's coming, what w/all the debt, and all the f'ing liars on Wall Street and in public offices. I'm really sad and pissed off to see this, but it is what it is. Humans are totally dishonest.
I think that from now on we should have dog's run the world. At least it'd be honest. Although we'd probably be eating Alpo the rest of our lives, too!
I agree that some of our problems are this honest politicians. But a big part of the problem is that there are no easy solutions left. We either default on our debt and cause a deflationary depression. Or we print and ultimately cause an inflationary depression.Since printing allows us to avoid short-term pain that is the path that will be chosen. Human beings have evolved to avoid short-term pain. So whenever this choice has to be made we almost always make the decision to kick the can down the road, which just makes the problem bigger. Which is why we are in the situation we're in right now.
Gary, sad but true. It's hard though for folks like many of us (me for sure) who has spent their entire life living within my means, expecting nothing, and working my arse off - saving 1st then buying or choosing to live w/out stuff. So many people now are fat, have too many clothes, have all the techie toys, and expect handouts. Put them in the woods Friday and they'd be dead by Monday. We need to go back to the caveman days, and focus on family, community, and living within our means. Sure, we die by 20 or 30, but at least we live as MEN (and women!) and not as punchbags w/no work ethic. Again, just me.
So what I'm saying is that, although most humans are just as you say, there are enough of us wiser humans to know our own nature, and have the discipline to live small and still be happy, for real reasons instead of artificial. I myself vote for austerity. No more nothing for anyone who doesn't work. Nothing. And those that work should share to help those who don't work. Again, just me.
I mean, those who can't work. The rich should help those who can't help themselves. Charity is very important. But giving cupcakes to those who are greedy or already bloated should be stopped. Sending SSN checks to the rich is insane. Meanwhile those who are truly poor have no relief. Makes me absolutely sick and ashamed.Done for now. I need to ride to burn off this stress.
FYI giving to the poor is an important part of making money for my wife/I. Same for you Gary w/your weightlifting team, and probably other stuff. But I've been around enough rich folks who don't give one iota about the poor, it just makes me sick. They flip mails on their iPhone driving their Porsche's and BMW's that they are totally oblivious to the poor. If they sold a hubcap, that'd feed a family for a week. A week.
TZ(8155) said... "No. You don't get rich by shorting.Even the VERY few people on this blog who make SOME money by shorting know that statement is true.The rest are simply gamblers or cant do math."I am going to disagree (strongly) with that.First, I will concede that most people do poorly shorting. I believe success in shorting depends a lot on the personality of the trader, and people need to trade in a way that matches their personality.I have always made a lot more money on the short side. To me, it just seems easier to find "mini-bubbles" (coffee and cotton in the last year just to name two) and short them than to make money holding long positions (although I still do have longs).But let's look at one example using some (simple) math. Over the last forty-three months, natural gas futures have lost more than 6.9% per MONTH (compound return for the second month contract ADJUSTED FOR THE MONTHLY ROLL).A strategy of shorting the second month contract (with no leverage) and rolling into the new second month contract when the front month contract expires would have returned more than 1650 percent during that time (yes, I am ignoring transaction costs, and applying the 6.9 percent to the entire amount - in reality, there would be an integer number of contracts each month, and some remainder that would not earn a return).I dare say this has done even better than Gary over this period. :)I don't want to encourage people to short if they don't feel comfortable with it, but in pure trading (a zero sum game, unlike investing in companies), the same number of dollars are gained (lost) by the short position as lost (gained) by the long. It's silly to say that only the long side can make a lot of money.
FYI giving the poor food and clothes is great short term, and giving education and jobs is a key part of sustained growth out of poverty.There, I'm done now.
First off you only mention two cases where you managed to win. You didn't bother to tell us about all the cases where you just kept getting whipsawed out time after time, or the times that the intraday moves knocked you out for losses. Like I always say if one would honestly go over their trading history 99% of you will find that you lose money over the long term selling short. That is especially true of traders who think they can successfully sell short with nothing more than charts. Successful bears have research depts. that find sick or failing companies.Coffee is only down 30% and that's if you managed to time a perfect top and could hang on through all of those violent swings. Not too mention the thing went straight up for months with multiple false tops. Anyone trying to short that lost so much during the run up that they would never be able to make it back once the top came. Cotton, same story. Months and months of steadily higher prices with multiple false tops. You're either the greatest trader in the world or you are conveniently forgetting about all the multiple losses you took before finally catching the top.If you did better than the model portfolio it's only because you leveraged massively and got lucky.I can't depend on either one to produce sustainable gains. I'll let others dream about easy gains selling short. The reality is, it just ain't so.
Wow WW. Looks like you had quite the discussion going with the intra day MA's! I guess when you look @ the charts like a hawk, you see things us mortals can't see! :)Good Luck for the 27th!
"I'll let others dream about easy gains selling short."I never said it was "easy" (neither is buying long), but some things have proven quite reliable over the years. One of those is selling futures with large contango.I mentioned natural gas (down 6.9+% per month for forty-three months), which you didn't bother to repeat. That has made me a lot of money (and there is still huge contango there - next January is forty-seven percent higher then the current month).There are a few others. Volatility futures (down 11.4 percent per month for thirty months through the middle of last year), and even lumber (down 2.9 percent per month for sixty months through the end of January). I particularly want to point out the similarity to volatility futures and insurance - buyers tend to pay more than fair value."Like I always say if one would honestly go over their trading history 99% of you will find that you lose money over the long term selling short."*I* know where *I* make my money, and most of it comes on the short side."That is especially true of traders who think they can successfully sell short with nothing more than charts."I do a lot more than that. I spend the whole day doing everything from developing and updating models, to evaluating macro events to reading crop reports."Successful bears have research depts. that find sick or failing companies."Too many companies. There are only about a hundred or so (important) futures in the world, and I tend to concentrate on those."You're either the greatest trader in the world or you are conveniently forgetting about all the multiple losses you took before finally catching the top."Nope (especially not the greatest trader part :) ). I am just doing the basics. Finding my edge (most people can't short successfully) and exploiting it (using the experience I have gained over the years, and, of course, good risk management)."If you did better than the model portfolio it's only because you leveraged massively and got lucky."Or because I developed my skills over a number of years, and work hard at it."I can't depend on either one to produce sustainable gains."I never said you should (and it seems you can't - if you believe that something is impossible for you, you are certainly correct).My point is that there are a lot of ways to make (and of course, lose) money. I don't see why, by sharing my experience (which I clearly said is not something most individuals can replicate), you should imply that I am a liar.
William,Hey, can you do me a favor and tell me what platform you use to see the real-time sma's? I have been following your posts when I can and find your work fascinating. I don't have the time to do it, but at night after the kids go to bed, I could follow the futures for awhile and finally see in my head what you're talking about? Maybe? Thanks and good luck with the surgery!
Kal,You can download the TOS platform and choose the `paper money` option at login and get to use all the great stuff they have. Using the paper money is a freebie and real time. Good luck.
GaryIn the first 6 months of 08' the HUI averaged (for arguments sake around) 440ish While GLD averaged around 90ish during the same time. Right now we are 90% higher on GLD and about 18% higher on the HUI.Right after that we had the crash of a lifetime, Unless your expecting a 4 yr cycle low soon(which I doubt with the QE's), I really see no reason not to start building an old turkey position.
If you've been around long enough you know that you don't buy anything before the stock market moves down into an intermediate cycle low.
I know I just believe that we aren't going much lower. I also feel that we are going to be consolidating for a while, I just hope I can raise a good amount of cash during that time to add to the portfolio.
If anyone is even remotely close to any success in the market timing, either on the long or the short side, they must be a lair or a bullshit artist, when it comes to this blog. Lot of people here must be very insecure in their own abilities.Maybe the reasoning behind this is because the overall concepts of market timing here is out of whack just a tad (end sarcasm), because 99.9999% of all decisions are made just on cycles. And when a certain asset class missed the timing band of the cycle - because cycles do not actually work all the time - everyone chucks a big cry and a huge whinge, than starts blaming each other or calls anyone else who correctly timed the bottom or a top "luckily fluke bullshit lair artist", who only did that once, because historically they got it wrong 99 times before that.
Tiho, There is no perfect system. That's what stops are for. If you stick to your stops you should be fine with Gary's system. I have seen Gary be absolutely wrong and still make money, while I was absolutely right and somehow managed to lose money. Gary has done his homework and has hammered out a no-nonsense trading plan with safety measures. You have to respect his knowledge and track record.
Tiho,Here`s your chance. If you have something that is better than what we are already using, I can`t imagine you could find a place with a more captive, appreciative audience. I bet Gary would even change styles if you have something better. Here`s your chance, Sunshine! And to the rest of our SMT Family, I say let`s give Tiho this chance. After all, what do we have to lose?
Today, we have a cover of Barrons with DOW JONES 15,000 written so big all over it that even Stevie Wonder could see it ! I suspect that sooner rather than later the Bulls are going to be in for a surprise
Video shows Tom Demarks proprietary indicators plus other market outlook. 00:00 - 04:15 Market outlook04:15 - 14:26 DeMark indicators for the S&P 500 and Germany14:26 - 19:31 CCM Market Models
That hollow red in GLD's daily chart still has me spooked, despite the MACD which just turned negative. If GLD get's above 170.37, I'll go long w/a small position. Although my triggers are on daily charts, I often times find it easy to see what's going on using 60 and 30 min charts - on these I look at price only and not oscillators/indicators. GLD is trending down now, but a break above 170.37 would be a micro-higher high, so I'd buy.
On the daily chart, 170.37 is GLD's Thursday high.
Basically, I think this "topping" action in GLD is taking a bit long as compared w/Nov's high (ref: EricH's post). The fact that it's taking longer has me suspicious that this is just a horizontal correction, and that it may break to the upside. If it does, I will follow.
Bill,I wouldn't put too much weight on the appearance of candles. That said, some indicators I watch make me believe gold and miners (and maybe even the stock market) are about to surprise to the upside. Just from the cycle perspective, gold should set new rally highs soon, as it is in the process of completing a RT... and nearly extremely RT... daily cycle. However, I believe both gold and miners may shoot to the upper bounds of their consolidation patterns over the next 3-4 weeks before correcting sharply along with an intermediate-degree drop in stocks.
Thanks 86d! I appreciate it. I'm with TD Ameritrade but haven't messed with TOS much. I'm a small fry with a full-time job and young family so I usually just use the web app since I pretty much follow Gary's calls. I will check it out... Thanks again.
Was studying GLD from many timeframes again, and just now noticed slight pos. divergence in the PPO/MACD on 60 and 30 min charts. I'm real sure now that GLD will close higher on Monday.I'm now pondering entering at just above 168.13, or just above Thursday's close. Friday, GLD gapped down, then slightly drifted higher. A price up to 168.13 would fill that gap; and I'm now thinking that any price above that would be bullish for the trend. So I may enter a small position at 168.25 or so, and then more at 170.40 - something like that. My floor would be at 166.30, in case I'm wrong. Risks are 1.2% and 2.4% respectively. Am still thinking though. 4 things make me a worried bull: price action is taking a bit long to top, Ben spoke of QE3, Europe is hosed as is the US, and Gary said many times that surprises come to the upside.
oops ... meant fill the gap at 168.08, not 168.13 ... so I'd enter at 168.15 or so, risking 1.1%
thedoc, generally agree on candles. But for GLD however, it does seem to happen more than 50% of the time. It's not a buy signal, but for me anyways it's a sit-up-and-take-notice signal.I'm not a cycles guy, but I follow Gary because he's an overall great trader, plus I learn from most folks here, too. I'm a big believer in following just price action, and so far it's 50-50 that GLD is topping on daily chart, or just sideways consolidating. I'm just preparing my mind for a break up. Glad to hear that you too are preparing for that should it happen. I'm just a beginner.
Bill,I noticed a couple times you mentioned that gold is "taking long to top", but in fact the previous two daily cycle tops were both 10 days top to bottom, this top is only on day 6.GLD is an ETF, you need to look at a chart of the underlying.
WW, OK thanks. I was just looking at tops on the daily GLD chart over the past year. WW, one more thing I just noticed a few mins ago ... on the 30 min chart, it looks like GLD filled the gap on the 26th - GLD ran up big after Ben opened his mouth on the 25th - then GLD gapped up the 26th and went higher. Friday's gap down looks like it filled the Feb 26th gap. WW, I know you look at spot gold and futures, so gaps are mostly gone, but I've read that some take note of gaps on GLD in particular. All's I'm saying is that I think GLD could go up, and the odds are 50-50, and if it does I'll follow. ;-)
uh, meant Jan 26th gap - last Friday's gap down filled last Jan 26's gap up - looks like.Moving forward, I'll take care to re-read my comments to eliminate typo's.
Bill,I hear ya, if gold plans on pushing higher (even if for just a day before falling out on Tuesday), I'll be long before ya wake up Monday morning and short before you go to sleep Monday night :)
WW, you remind of a Terrier going after a rat - on it's tail every turn, left right, up down, doesn't matter - always in your sights.Good point too though that GLD could go up a bit but not make a higher high, then tip over and go down. I guess that's why Gary always waits for a key reversal. Good food for thought - thanks!
Folks look at the volume on TVIX. What does that tell you?
Poly,Shocking to find you want more for a subscription than either Gary or Doc.......good luck.
Poly can't be compared with Gary and Doc.
Poly's track record is well worth the subscription price."I could go on about my track record, how I rode Silver to the top and jumped off, how I called to the day a major summer Gold rally, when everybody called for collapse. After the summer collapse all thought it was back to new highs, I showed it was going to collapse again. But the reality is; only you can decide whether what I have to say and share is going to be of value to you" - Poly
High 5 and WWI just wish Gary, Doc, Poly and WW would team up. Great for us but hell for them. Can you imagine a time when all 4 would have 4 different opinions trying to send out the nightly report?It would be one hell of a team!!
SF was pounding the table on the volume in the VIX a week ago.
A week ago the volume was only about double and it was selling volume. That doesn't tell you when a turn is or has happened. It wasn't until Thursday when we got a hint that a turn might be coming. Friday it was confirmed big time.
"BB crash on the VIXEverything bullish % is in nose bleed territory SoS # on Spy today should be big.Volume on TVIX this week was huge.News out of Europe this weekend ?Looks like the perfect setup for a top IMO."February 3, 2012 6:47 AM- SF Giants Fan
On the 3rd volume was to the downside and it was just as heavy the week before. The turn was confirmed until Friday.
I am a member of the Poly Founding Member Class of 2012! yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
For the most part I don't really care if people want to start their own newsletter and draw their clients from my subscriber base. This has never been about money or subscriptions for me. It was about helping people ride the bull market.But this has gotten to the point where I think I will speak up. Both Doc and Poly are very experienced traders and I have the utmost respect for both of them so I'll put this as delicately as possible. The quickest way to generate new subscribers is to make a bold call in the opposite direction of me. If it pans out you have 3000 potential new subscribers that think you know something that no one else does.Barring the need to generate customers I don't believe either one of these two guys is crazy enough to buy anything on the 19th week of an intermediate cycle.
Gary,I have no need to make silly calls in order to snag subscribers for a couple hundred dollar annuity. I run an investment partnership where the stakes are much higher for making correct calls, and I do trade what I call. I have every intention of adding to my positions upon the next swing low in gold, and I have posted my views here for the same reason you run your letter... to help people.I also believed you enjoyed thoughtful challenges to your commentary as opposed to some of the banal trolling that goes on. If you only see my comments as showmanship and an attempt to be different for the sake of being different, then I have made a gross mistake in judgment.
Someone posted a few days ago that poly and doc share the same view about gold going to $1900. Does anyone know if this is still true?
Gary I don't think you have any reason to "speak up", your simply one to be admired and exude not only a high level of experience, but common sense and discipline, which I believe permeates everyone. Your definitely a source not an alternative. Again I thank you for all you do.
The $CRB commodities index is threatening to complete the formation of a Head & Shoulders top, but the pattern will not be confirmed until price closes below the neckline. The left shoulder is a 'complex' shoulder.http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22903991245&a=257232480
Commodities bottomed in December. Don't worry about any technical mumbo jumbo. Just buy the pullback and short the Dollar rally in coming days / weeks.
Tiho, What are you even doing here? You're just a troll.
Danno,I don't think you should be the person to tell people to leave this blog - no one should be that person, aside from Gary.I have read a few of Tiho's posts, over the last few weeks, and have found them to be quite informative. He is no troll.
Rob L,I can say whatever I want to say wherever and whenever I want to. Go screw yourself.
Danno,I believe it is you who is a troll - your comment to me is a perfect example.
"I can say whatever I want to say wherever and whenever I want to". I agree. Freedom of speech for all
Danno,I believe a warm cup of milk, an animal cracker and an episode of Sabrina The Teenage Witch is what ails your weary soul. Just a typical Saturday night for you.
smartbullion ,You are correct - which is why Tiho should not be chastised for his comment which started Danno's tantrum.
Tiho's comments regarding currencies have been interesting for me. Although I could see how he could wind people up too. Hmmmm...I wonder where basil is hiding out
LOL @ smartbullion
I add my views which are quite informative. No one has to agree, but it might help someone. Write ones views out is self-helpful in the first place. This has been my point of view over the last several weeks:When one follows currencies, one should take a broad look of how the Dollar is performing - similar to breadth in a way. Obviously, the same should be done for the stock market too.So keeping that in mind, and looking at the Dollar across the board, we can conclude, from many many posts I have written here, that the Dollar has topped already. Therefore, most likely commodities have already bottomed, despite any "technical head & shoulder" warnings.If we look at the breadth of the CRB Index, we can conclude that energy bottomed in October against the Dollar, just like S&P, Junk Bonds, Asian & Commodity currencies did too. Next came Agriculture in middle of December and finally Industrial Metals and Precious Metals in late December. Agriculture is the main competent of the CRB / CCI index, with a weight of 40% or more. Therefore, its bottom in December, most likely marks the true bottom for the whole index. I'm long Agriculture in middle of December, for those reasons, plus many others.Unfortunately, where a trader makes a mistake, is looking at the DXY / UUP index, which is very connected to Euro and Pound as a huge weighting. There are no components from BRIC, Emerging Market or Commodity Currencies apart from the Canadian Dollar. Euro and Pound currencies are very sick, just as sick as the Dollar really. But since currencies relative, these three ugly sisters move against each other with real progress in either direction. You will notice that many currencies bottomed in October against the Dollar, while Euro didn't. So it "appears" that the Dollar Index and Stocks have been moving up since October. But the truth is, the Dollar was only strong against the Euro, and weak against almost everything else!Focus your attention away from the Dollar Index / Euro / Pound, and you will come to a conclusion, especially using sentiment as well, that most likely commodities have bottomed in December and the Dollar has topped in a period between early October to middle of January breadth wise. I am short the Dollar since middle of January, using a proxy through Swiss Franc, as that currency has been beaten down the most in a forced "peg-like" manner which will not hold for long.We are now entering a third bullish rally since 2009. Risk assets like equities, currencies & commodities, leading economic indicators, central bank balance sheet expansions and most importantly credit markets are all in harmony. The investments to hold are:- long commodities due to secular uptrend- short dollar due to secular downtrendSure, there are overbought levels for some risk assets and you shouldn't just rush out and buy something Monday morning as there is a scope for a correction. During that correction, Dollar rallies a bit. But to talk about Dollar (as in DXY / UUP) making new highs, is shorting the Euro - which is way overdone - and picking head & shoulder tops in commodities after a bear market just bottomed, and money printing has re-started, while all credit markets show signs of improvement, seems "unprofitable" to me.Now, I don't think that is a troll post. You can agree or disagree with everything I wrote here, but at least it might be useful to someone.
Tiho, very interesting, thank you.
As just an average investor who subscribes to both Gary and Doc I prefer Gary, by far. Doc's site is on the cryptic side unless you are an experienced cycles trader. As he has clearly stated, Doc trades for a living. He posts his trades on a site, makes a few very brief comments about what he things may or may not happen, and says follow me if you want to. OTOH, Gary realizes that the vast majority of his subscriber base are average investors, he takes a great amount of effort and posts to keep them out of trouble by warning them off risky trades, his site and posts contain volumes more information regarding cycles and how they mesh with fundamentals than does Doc's, and his trades are more conservative and designed more to give his subscribers the best risk/reward ratio on his trades.I have been reading (lurking mostly) on Gary's SMT Premium site long enough to know that when he says he is in it to help people make money and stay out of trouble in these markets, I'm confident that is exactly what he is doing.Perhaps I don't know enough about cycles yet, but I can't say the same about Doc's site.I don't know anything about Poly so am not able to comment.For this investor, I'll be renewing with Gary and dropping my trial subscription with Doc.
The problem is that oil, just like stocks is now due to move down into an intermediate degree bottom. Unless gets its act together real quick, then this intermediate cycle is going to be left translated. If the oil cycle fails then the CRB is going to break down to new lows and we are going to get the true 3 year cycle low this spring and not in Oct.Until the dollar index reverses the pattern of higher highs and higher lows I'm not prepared to call a top. It is still early in the three year cycle and usually the rally out of a three year cycle low will last at least a year.We have to see where everything goes when the stock market drops down into its next intermediate bottom. Until that event occurs its just too early to make any grand calls of dollar tops or commodity bottoms.
Cycles and Sentiment are forms of Technical Analysis. They are pattern recognition. Calling TA 'mumbo jumbo' on a site like this is only something a troll would do.
Gary said"On the 3rd volume was to the downside and it was just as heavy the week before. The turn was confirmed until Friday." TVIX traded 16 million shares on Feb 3rd the highest EVER traded. That was said real time without the aid of hindsight that you mention so often. WW thx for the mention.
I haven't seen anyone on this site get every move in the market 100%. However, I would think that whomever you choose to follow into a trade, you better be sure you agree on those reasons before you take the trade, because it is your trade and your money you risk. Gary, Doc or Poly may disagree on market direction right now, but the one thing they do agree on is risk control and is planned out in their various types of trading.
SF Giants Fan-TVIX just traded 30 million shares on Friday, 2/10.I have no idea if that was the highest volume ever but it was almost twice the volume of TVIX on 2/3.
ArunIt's $2.50 more per month than Gary and Doc.
UnknownPlease re-read my post. It should make sence. I had no way of knowing the volume 7 days in the future. The point was at the time it was the highest ever traded.
seems the smartest ppl are the ones who start subscription service..atleast you get a nice 5 figure income which is much better than any other normal job..dumbs like me who struggle in market lose on both ends..in market as well as paying for subscriptions..and what i am annoyed is same type of concept but 3 different subscriptions..
Was out all day riding in the freezing Japanese winter - my body broken - brain drained - pulled up some daily 2 yr charts of $GOLD and $USD, and now I think $GOLD will go down and the $USD up, at least on a daily basis. Day to day I have no idea, but it looks like these 2 are in sync after all, and that their turning points match up. How long the dollar goes up I have no idea, just it's turning up now, and gold down. Check out 2 yr daily charts. The $CRB is also interesting. The $HUI is screwed though. I hate the $HUI!
unknown im with you ... gary is better 1) more interaction 2) safer 3) keeps in mind the new people 4) and the interaction with argumentive people is very educational. this list should be much longer, but its 4 am thankyou gary for smt
Also gary or doc plz do not say that your service is to help people..you charge for the service..and your income must be north of 500K just from subscription..i am not sure how much profit you have earned in absolute terms from trading...if ur absolute trading profits are north of 10 mil then i can say that subscription income is just 5% of your total income..and even then 5% of toal income is substantial amount..and you all must admit that you CAN NOT call it helping people..its a plain PROFESSIONAL RELATIONSHIP..its a Business-to-Consumer model..nothing more nothing less...personally i don't see anything bad in charging for subscription..but then i am not sure why you people don't admit it and hide behind words like helping people...
ofcourse above comment is applicable to Poly too..personally if i would have been so smart in trading, i would have started a service..cos it has a fixed income which help offset your trading risks..
I have not posted here for a LONG time, but I felt I had to say something about the people who are somewhat critical of Poly for getting into the paid subscription biz. I say "the more the merrier!"I have personally made a TON of money (+195% 12 month return ending Jan 31, 2012) by following investing tips from Gary, Doc, Poly, Alex, BobLovesHawaii, DG and a few other frequent posters on this blog.NOBODY has all the answers!Knowledge is power and the more info you can get the better.I've been a paid SMT subscriber since March 2011 (lurked for 2 months before that) and I've subscribed to Doc for almost as long. I plan to keep both subscriptions forever.I just joined Poly's subscription service today. Poly has an incredible track record! Many of you may not know that Poly was up something like 600% in 2010 based on his gold trading.I have personally made a LOT of money by following Poly's option calls at DCL's.But nobody is perfect. Both Gary and Poly missed the gold bottom in late December, but Alex nailed it.That's why it is important to have MULTIPLE sources of investing information.I realize that some people here can't afford it, but if you are SERIOUS investor I think you should subscribe to Gary, Doc, Poly and any other investor with a great track record.Then you have to pick and choose who you follow on any given tradebecause they will often conflict with one another.I know many of you follow Gary's model portfolio exactly and if that works for you, great!Others do your own thing (WW I'm looking at you) and do very well with that.There is no "right" or "wrong" way to invest. You have to find what works best for you, within your personal risk tolerance level, and always remember that NOBODY is going to be right all the time. Gary provides a great service, and we are all very lucky that he allows free and open discussion on this blog. If you are one of those “lurkers” hanging out in the blog comments sucking up free investing advice and NOT paying for a SMT subscription, shame on you! Come on, it’s dirt cheap compared to the money you could/shouldbe making from what you learn here.
The issue is not other subscription services. The issue is trolling for subscribers on someone else's board. As a reader it annoys me. I can't imagine how annoying it must be for a site's owner. And yes it is possible to for a person's primary goal to be helping other people in spite of the fact that the person may ask a fee for doing so. The notion of helping others is the best reason to start a business. In fact, if your goal is not to help other people then you should never open a business.
Don't comment often, but just wanted to chime in and say that as a subscriber to Gary, then Doc and now today to Poly, there's plenty of room and it's not a zero-sum game. I welcome having a few coaches and am happy to maintain several subscriptions.Don't know what the etiquette is or should be on commenting on each other's sites, but as a subscriber discussion is always welcome. As I mull different reports, I often think it'd be nice to have more of these guys talking to each other and bouncing views off each other.But I can see how that might be delicate so as not to step on each other's toes and maybe it makes more sense for each to work in isolation so as not to have their analysis unduly influenced by the others'. I don't know, there are pros and cons to either scenario.Whatever, it's all good and I'm sure these likeminded services can happily coexist as we all make money going forward into the next few years of the precious metals market in particular. I was very happy to find Gary over a year ago, which led me to Doc and Poly and everyone else in this little community of communities.
ArunI agree. I like Gary much better because of the risk adjusted return. Buying a 3x ETF is not in my risk tolerance even though it was a very small %. And yes, many did miss the 12-29 bottom because Everybody said gold was going lower. I think WW called it and a few others.
ArunYes it was WW. SF Giants Fan said...It seems like EVERYONE is waiting for gold to hit the $1400's. Not just this blog but many others (except doc). And you know what happens when everyone is waiting for the same thing. It never happens. I hope I'm wrong...January 4, 2012 6:28 PM William Wallace said...SF,Im not :) Am I the only one who is long gold right now, is Doc long?January 4, 2012 6:32 PM
SF Giants, thanks to that post of yours early Feb. Due to that post, I began to finally look at and figure out the VIX index. It led me to buy with both fists on the 8th, at the beginning of the upturn, so thank you for that astute observation! How the market got so complacent is beyond me. It appears the news cycle is turning, and it may be time for the 'widowmakers' (TVIX + HVU.T) to shed their shrouds and let the volitility party start again - until of course evryone gets too greedy and the widowmakers make widows again... Check out TSI Trader and technicalmarketsanalysis; both these guys called it accurately, and could provide guidance for the trade.Good luck and good trading (standing by my man - Gary, except hard to take the UUP trade in Canada, for the only etf has zero volume).
KmisakThx, but i will pass the credit to Tom Demark on TVIX. That is when the volume started to surge. Please do not get greedy with any volatility ETF. It was up > 30% on Friday at the high and it can fall just as fast.
SF,Yes but it was selling volume and we had 10 other days prior to that with above average selling volume. None of those were confirming a bottom. It wasn't until Friday's heavy upside volume that we had confirmation that a turn had likely occurred.
Something to have in mind about the future of silver: http://moneymappress.com/video/mmp/mmr/mmr_silver_fwd.php?code=EMMRN232&n=MMRSILVER49501YR692YRTO79
don,Last year I paid off my weightlifting coaches house for him. He was struggling on a fixed income. Several of my friends leveraged too heavily and got caught in the silver crash and lost most of their life savings. I recapitalized their accounts. Most of my climbing friends are young and can't afford health insurance. I pay their medical bills for them. And until recently I sponsored the weightlifting team. Since Nationals is in three weeks sponsorship just ended as we don't know who is going to stay and who is going to leave after nationals.I also contribute to various animal shelters. I find it rather offensive that you think I'm only in this to generate subscriptions. I've given away most of the proceeds from the newsletter. If I wanted to I could easily jack the price of a subscription up to $1000 for the service I provide. I mean honestly how many other newsletters in the world have delivered the kind of risk adjusted returns that the SMT has? I think we all know the answer is none. I've given away most of the profits from the newsletter and I have to put up with the constant whining from traders if a trade isn't timed perfectly and now I have wanna be newsletter writers using my blog to generate subscribers. Is it any wonder I get a tad upset when others come on the blog make big calls against me, never bother to explain their reasoning, and claim it isn't to generate subscribers? If you are going to make a call then tell us exactly your reasons so we can judge for ourselves. People shouldn't have to subscribe to your letter to find out why you think the opposite. If you don't want to give away subscriber information then keep your calls on your own site. If you want to build a business then do it the same way I did. Do your own advertising and if you provide a valuable service then you will gradually build a subscriber base over time.
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