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Thursday, February 23, 2012

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286 comments:

  1. As of yesterday's close there is a confirmed Inverse Head & Shoulders in $GOLD (with a complex head). Price closed above the neckline on 02/22 generating a long trade confirmation signal. No doubt gold could stagger around the neckline here for a few days, testing it, like $SPX did before it erupted out of its inverse H&S taking nearly everyone by surprise.

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  2. Gold just woke up! Good morning gold :)

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  3. Danno

    Thx for the news bulletin but many here have been long gold for close to a month.

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  4. Damnit Aaron, I've been up since 6:15 ET buying contracts and trying to push the price up for you, show some respect.

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  5. Mornin' fellers! Doesn't look like there'll be much to do today as it's not my time to buy/add, and way too soon to entertain selling. Seems a good day to step away and let the chips fall where they may. Hope everybody can stay on the ride. :)

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  6. SF, It's just data. I don't give trade recommendations. Do what you want with the information. You have my permission to print it out and shove it up your ass.

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  7. Danno you've got issues buddy

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  8. Haha, I must add, that statistically, gold rising more than 3% in a week is a rather rare occurance. Add in options expiration, today, and a pullback should be expected... either way, next week should be a good week

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  9. Danno

    I don't know where that came from?  Gary's blogs (only one of which you choose to visit) are made up of some extremely talented people around the world of which I think we all know who they are.  So suggest you return to where comments like that deserve to be posted. Click Here 
    All future postings by you will be ignored.  Thx

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  10. Miyagi-sensei,

    I agree with your last post...sorry cannot open the SMT webpage, but read it earlier...Tran and Russell are not trading well and now DAX is pucking

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  11. SF, Here's an idea. If you can't say anything nice... keep your mouth shut.

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  12. Danno,

    Your comments directed at many people, including me, have often been juvenile. The person who needs to keep their mouth shut, or more accurately, their fingers off of the the keyboard, is you.

    It's time that you grew up, Danno.

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  13. SF Giants Fan,
    Nice link to ZSL, also the private blog is off the charts with most inane handing holding comments.

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  14. Danny is back with another head and shoulders pattern... lol!!!!

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  15. I have never, ever, ever attacked anyone on this board. Ever. I have only reacted to creeps who pop out of the blue with rude little comments directed at me. All I am doing is learning and sharing information. If you feel that I have attacked you, then you are probably a jerk and too stupid to realize it.

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  16. Mean guy

    The handholding is pretty typical by new subs and others after a portfolio change. As they get more confident the handle holding should lessen. They want to wait until it feels right to buy, but by that time it's too late (in the cycle).

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  17. Danno,

    You have just given a wonderful example of a person with sociopath tendencies. (February 23, 2012 7:03 AM)

    I hope the hospital realizes their mistake and either takes away your computer or your weekend pass.

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  18. Been there done that on last spring Silver run up.

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  19. Sold back my little silver contract bought yesterday at 34.05... I kow that it is going higher but I will sleep tonight and reassess...

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  20. Like I've said before, Danno is either (a) a kid (b) an adult with mental issues or (c) a troll who gets a kick out of people's reactions.

    Either way, I wish Gary would ban him. His constant posts with useless "analysis" and constant attacks drive away the serious traders who share their valuable thoughts.

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  21. Dan and Rob L both have a history of popping in out of the blue to make a rude or offensive comment.

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  22. Mean guy

    Oh, I hope you didn't get caught in the may meltdown.

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  23. Danno,

    Believe me when I say I've been here a whole lot longer than you. Your not even a subscriber for heavensakes. Just here leaching off Gary's free posts and blog. On top of that attacking everyone and anyone who dares to question your joke of an analysis posts.

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  24. With US stocks at resistance, breadth diverging, mutual fund flows back after billions of outflows and sentiment bullish, is anyone here shorting / hedging against the stock market? Or better put, is anyone interested in buying the recent Japanese Yen sell off?

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  25. Where's that dude that posted the other day he was breaking rule number 1?

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  26. Tiho,

    I am 10% long SPXU and 30% long AGQ.

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  27. SF Giants Fan,

    Actually sold @ the top but tried catch the falling knife, got burned there.

    Silver very strong AGQ is working for me today.

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  30. 1.5 hours and SLV volume is huge
    This run in may nor rest till we hit $40

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  31. guys i don't want to alarm anyone but.. i think gold might have bottomed.

    for further hot tips and to be put on my super exclusive mailing list mail $200 to whatever cemetary i'm buried in.

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  32. Mean guy

    Glad too hear you got out somewhat unscathed.
    Silver looks like its on it's ways again :-)

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  33. Tiho,

    I'm long AUD/JPY in my carry trade, does that count?

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  37. SI is at or has just exceeded the long term declining top line, in the low 35's.

    Based on history, we are at the crossroads between a longer time in the dungeon slaughtering the SI longs, and a retest of the low 30's, right now, or we will see an unbelievable rally as I said 2 days ago, straight up, through that line and probably up another 4 bucks.

    At that point, again, an assessment of when profit taking will enter.

    As the target is $100-200 SI if what I and Gary and others are saying, and as I think this is the elbow moment, the long term turn for the climactic high in 1 to 3 years (3 at max) into the 200-300 range, a move in this wave to the low - mid 40's and even to 50 is to me probable.

    As $50 is a nothing when adjusting $50 of 1980-81 to current let's say gasoline value, we have a long way to go before SI or even AG are close to parity of the past.

    Sophia, next time you see an entry point, sit down and stay, as in permanently, with your miniSI. Just next time buy it and forget it. Write it off and play with the other trading toys. You will make a year's income if you'll leave it alone next time. 35 to 50 will be 15 x 1000. Just leave it alone next time.

    As the move has started, I've no comment about when to get in or out; that's a trading thing... talk to TZ and WW and Gary and Veronica. Just believe as I do, that over the next few years, this is among the 2 best places to be, SI and AG.

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  38. I'm already 8x long GC so I wimped out, but I had my finger on the trigger to enter SI at 34.66. Oh well...

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  39. I don't own it but UVXY is getting killed today ->11%.
    Looks like Puke volume also.

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  40. Is this the trend line Slumdog & Harry referring to? http://screencast.com/t/6Fu9Mn5hMt5w

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  41. Slumdog,

    You are 100% correct where Silver is headed, but not just yet. Low 30's is more probable over the next 4 weeks starting next week

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  42. Slumdog,

    Sorry for being such a wimp....ya, well, I had such a tough year last year that if I see 4000 dollars, I take it...
    I agree with you that I will probably miss some big moves unfortunately, but I am building back my confidence and trying to learn from all of you guys.
    Will come back in when I see an entry, still long 4 contracts Gold, and my little favorite miner IPT

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  43. Smartbullion, the chart you posted is what I saw and commented on a few days ago.

    This break has basically 2 outcomes, a trade into the 37-39 range and sideways to mark time, or a continuation into the low mid 40's.

    All the swings from now on are just to toss off the long riders.

    But it's not just going to 43-44 where there's obvious congestion.
    This is the moment I've been waiting for... the start of the Long Climb to the Greatest Parabola of our Lifetimes.

    This is the first step of the Long Climb. Those who can take the abuse of the swings, like Bernanke, will be very rich at the end.

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  44. Slumdog,

    You impressed me that weekend in September when you saw the low at 1535 and rebound for that Monday morning!
    I have to say that I bought yesterday thanks to you....please keep posting your views, they are great and so true!

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  45. Slumdog, thanks. Silver is on my radar too for grind back to $50. <$30 silver seems to be over now for this bull market

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  46. Eamonn, what's up? All ok in Ireland?

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  47. Hi sophia, eyeballing silver here and getting greedy LOL

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  48. $100-$200-$300 silver is EXTEMELY conservative .. jmo

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  49. Eammon,

    Are you lng my dear? 200$ sounds good even 18months away...

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  50. More seriously, it feels like there is going to be a war ....Gold up, stocks down and Oil up big....that is stinky enough for some people in the know....

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  51. sophia, not long on silver, just gold. But its on my radar.

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  52. Knock knock, Aople turned negative, long Gold, short Stocks, life is beautiful....LOL

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  53. Eammon,

    If you come to London, please come over. My kids are still young, 8,8 and 7, so it is tough for me to move around without them...but I am always happy to have friends around and I can cook you a good meal!

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  54. my god, sophia, you could yet regret making that invitation. ...at ease & I could turn up and eat you out at any time

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  55. Eammon and at ease,

    Ok let's make plans for June....

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  56. 475 next picnic area for Apple....ciao bello

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  57. >You are 100% correct where Silver is headed, but not just yet. Low 30's is more probable over the next 4 weeks starting next week

    There really are reverse H&S patterns on gold and silver despite the danno joking. Both have now headed higher.

    The behavior of metals seems to indicate that the move down into dec low was a manipulated hit. It wasn't real in the standpoint of reflecting the actual market. So now it is unwinding at fast speed.

    I see VERY strong surges back up near the highs.

    5x gold and about 1x silver and holding.

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  58. TZ,

    Well done, that was a productive week for you! What do you mean by about 1xsilver?

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  59. We will now CLEARLY have weekly buy signals on most trading systems tomorrow (who will add to the buying) and yet we didn't pause on gold or silver today. (Well..gold is pausing a bit).

    The strength here seems very good and that weekly buying tomorrow should still push us higher.

    A sneaky goldman or somebody else COULD try to run some stops overnight tonight before the final friday buying. There are likely some weak hands who chased, got excited, and could get hit (Harry as example? 8x a bit high no offense).

    On any decline 1760 on gold should hold I think. And the silver break at34.50.

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  60. Check out the AGQ march 66 calls. Over 2700 contracts. Never seen that.

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  61. I have 1x silver futures holdings (actually a bit less) right now. About 5x gold. Total leverage about 6x.

    Various levels of stops.

    Backed off gold a bit last night cause I could tell I was getting excited and chasing and, instead, added the silver cause it hadn't broken higher yet and looked like a better bet. (Even though silver is very volatile and overall I'm not super excited about buying it, but the ability to get in with a solid position before a sharp break higher was irresistable.)

    I got lucky (I said I was feeling the table in my favor) and it worked. My closest stop is near 34.25 which looks pretty strong at this point.

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  62. The silver reverse H&S projects to an amazing $43

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  63. Gold's projects PAST the high to about $2010
    !

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  64. My reason for avoiding silver generally, but deciding to opportunistically jump in on this break is that, just like GDX, my same view holds:

    stockcharts[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$GOLD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p93284908898

    This is clearly not a security that appears to be outperforming gold in any way whatsoever (a week or two doesn't count).

    Lotta damage.

    It is simply easier and LESS risky to buy gold. If I want more return I can just leverage higher instead of messing with silver. Silver whips around. Takes out stops. Has bad slippage. And is less resistant to outside market declines (like a flash crash) than gold.

    So I'm not intending to go crazy on silver unless that chart levels out and turns up nicely like you saw end 2010 which was exactly the time to buy.

    I think it will take a while for silver to 'reset' as a proper investment. But the entry last night was cheap and worked. I'll take it.

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  65. Veronica:

    Did your system establish a stop?

    Congratulations by the way, you've consistently nailed it with your signals, at least since I've been visiting this forum. I wish I joined you on more of them :)

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  66. Yes Sophia,
    Let's get Eamonn to London! I have two guest rooms with wifi, so he has a place to stay, bring your Dad if you like Eamonn.

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  67. At ease,

    Sounds like a plan! By June we will all be multimillionnaires so we can put lobsters on the grill with truffle mayonnaise!

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  68. Sophia, LOL I sure hope so!
    I know since joining with Gary, I set a goal for 1 year and I hope to reach it.
    Almost there. :)

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  69. Sophia, DG reminder: When we start counting before the deal is done, almost guarantees a bad outcome. So we must not get greedy.

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  70. At ease,

    I hear you...and DG...that is why I sold my punt today...and keepung Gold long for the long run....

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  71. you know what they say about counting your chickens....

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  72. wth was that in gold? vertical drop...all gravity

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  73. There goes today's futures gains. Now we have to climb back up again.

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  74. See... LOL it happens everytime, you even mention making money and they come take it away. ;)

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  75. Guys, it's not going to go straight up forever. You're too leveraged or too wimpy to be trading at all if you're worrying about an intraday $10 correction after a run like this. This DC still has a week or two left to run, just turn off your computer.

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  76. LOL Harry, chill out, we're just chatting and enjoying the action.

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  77. Riley,

    Didnt add yet, was at the doctor's all day getting ready for surgery, I see silver punched through the 150dma....so I will add now at $1781.

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  78. Hey WW, hope the preop appt went well and you are ready to go for Monday. :)

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  79. As Jim Puplava says lately, the price of oil/gasoline have become the new fed funds rate.

    Rates are not going up again until this party crashes. But that isn't what is putting pressure on the world economy anymore. It is the hard cost of paying for energy and fuel.

    With fuel going to $5/gallon and crude sharply marching higher again, we are heading toward another cliff where the economy cracks.

    This on/off plateau is predicted by the peak oil crowd. I think it is real.

    It does this a few times until it becomes obvious to the world that we really do have peak oil and it's running out. Then oil goes ballistic and the world economy crunches hard into a new paradigm.

    Various peak oil people think that is only a few years away at most.

    (And loss of oil also crashes the debt/fiat/financial system because almost every financial asset and equation is based on compounding growth - which is now over)

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  80. Harry,

    "Guys, it's not going to go straight up forever. You're too leveraged or too wimpy to be trading at all if you're worrying about an intraday $10 correction after a run like this. This DC still has a week or two left to run, just turn off your computer."

    Well said my friend. Let me say this, if one plans on riding into a parabolic mania they better not only have the stomach to hold through daily draw downs, but hold to the point that they are sick from wondering whether or not its time to sell their gold.

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  81. WW,
    Are you saying we are all ill or will get ill trading gold futures? ;)

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  82. Can anyone explain why the move down in gold correlated with the move down in the dollar?

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  83. WW: Let me say this, if one plans on riding into a parabolic mania they better not only have the stomach to hold through daily draw downs, but hold to the point that they are sick from wondering whether or not its time to sell their gold."

    My 1/4 cent... sell SI at $42.40, and leave that $43-44 last stretch of the reverse HS that you're seeing to someone else.

    Then wait for the long consolidation which will drive everyone batty.

    Then buy back in the high $30's and wait for the next run to $48.50, again leaving the rest to "them".

    Then buy again in the high $40's and wait for the next Christmas

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  84. Oil at 108.

    Going to be a very interesting Spring for equities.

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  85. I'm lovin' leverage today - salesforce.com - CRM up big in the after-market - my piddly $100 option investment will probably be worth $1000 tomorrow. You gotta play small and when the rewards hit, they are worth it!

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  86. at ease

    said:

    "WW,
    Are you saying we are all ill or will get ill trading gold futures? ;)"

    If one cant stomach small daily draw downs 5 days into a second daily cycle of an A-wave, how early their "Old Turkey" positions will be taken off when gold goes truly parabolic.

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  87. WW,
    I didn't see anyone have trouble holding today. All we did was discuss movements in gold/silver in other words (not MAs lingo). See what happens if you are not here. :)

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  88. Many Markets Approaching
    Short Term Highs
    and sell signals.

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  89. Slumdog took your advice and bought SI and will just roll it, as can't trade that stuff. Still long 2x gold and holding. The waiting around at M.D. drive you crazy WW. Good luck as always.

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  90. Many Markets Approaching
    Short Term Highs
    and sell signals.

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  91. at ease,

    I just love your mini panics attacks when gold flushes $10 in 10 minutes :)

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  92. at ease,

    I know you like a book, I can see your face this afternoon..."oh no you didn't!" LOL

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  93. WW,
    I found it fun to see how far down it would go to see where it would bounce off and turn back up. We actually ended up where we started out this morning.

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  94. WW,

    I will be pulling for you on the 27th. With hundreds or maybe even thousands of wishes and prayers from here, hopefully, this time will be a success.

    You deserve all the best!

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  95. WW - I second Mr. Su's comment. We'll be praying for you, bro !

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  96. I pity the fool who is still long silver.

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  97. James,


    Did you not buy ZSL just the other day?

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  98. WW

    Is a break of $1804.40 in the bag?

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  99. james r, even though this is a moment for profit taking as the world has rushed into PM's over the past week and the last fools saw the headlines and bought today, james has no basis for his opinion that I can see other than short term profit taking.

    As an aside, as SI reached for $50, this blog and most others were filled with comments about the huge institutional short in SI. The chant was, "buy the physical and squeeze the shorts".

    Few here would acknowledge that the banks will not lose, that they have carte blanche with the governments to get money which they borrowed to support greater and greater short positions. They cannot lose.

    So, the next time we see huge institutional shorts, we must be very respectful to them, and agree that they will be correct at some point along the parabolic rise.

    My hope is that Gary will track those shorts because they act as the lid to the move, and when the marginal rate of increase flattens to near zero, as in straight up, like on the night of $49.50, everyone, holding physical, equities or futures must then release our manic panicked grip to wait and watch the inevitable.

    IMO, the short positions of the banks, not the hedge funds, will again lead to a massive profit for them. Heads Up, and please post what you see regarding the growth of those shorts.

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  100. slumdog,

    thanks for the post.

    I noticed $gold has a death cross lurking very close behind.

    Also from the chart $gold is stretching to reach the 1800 mark.

    Could be an exhaustive move tomorrow?

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  101. Very unlikely anything will top until the dollar bottoms. It's still way too early for that.

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  102. Yea, big shooter James bought his 2 shares Iwith his raise from Papa Murphy's) of ZSL at 10 the other day when he proclaimed the silver run over.

    He's a 20 year old community college drop out living in his parents basement, but feel free to follow him jamesr.

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  103. at the end of october the dollar bottomed and rallied while Gold continued higher for another 5 days before correcting 7%....

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  104. Gary,

    The odds are this A-wave advance is only one cycle?

    Hence this new cycle should begin the B-wave?

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  105. Plus everyone on this blog seems so dog-gone bullish?

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  106. MikeS,

    The $ index obviously didn't rally against gold, only against other confetti measures. Gold against YOUR dollar has rallied 30% at today's price, and got as high as +40%vs dollars at the high in Sept.

    Don't miss out, these opportunities don't come along often. I'm not buying today or tomorrow, but will keep scooping on dips.

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  107. "Very unlikely anything will top until the dollar bottoms. It's still way too early for that."

    That's right. *wink*

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  108. Ver, yes my stop was established today, now it's time to be patient.

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  109. Shalom,

    I'm not disagreeing where the metals are headed this year, I just think a breather here is in the cards

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  110. Veronica,

    Do you mind sharing what your stop is? Is it above the $1706 DCL?

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  111. Tiho,
    Only because the current daily cycle is still too short to bottom here.

    The dollar is approaching an intermediate bottom which should generate another leg up in the overall rally out of the three year cycle low.

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  112. MikeS,

    You're right, a dip is coming sooner or later. My thought is rather than attempt to sidestep it we should use the opportunity to add a little more.

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  113. Mr Su & Quy,

    Thanks alot guys, I really appreciate it, definitely need prayers now.

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  114. SF,

    I think so...Im keeping an eye on this C-wave channel upper trendline area for a possible B-wave top, the trendline that was broken when gold went parabolic, I think if gold moves out of this channel again we may see something big.

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  115. Slumdog,

    I'm mostly a lurker these days but want to take the time to thank you for your contributions and for resurfacing.

    I'll never forget your dynamite triangle post.

    To you and all you other "studs" here (you know who you are) please stay humble and please ignore any BS that goes on in this blog.

    Not worth the energy.

    RJ

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  116. WW,
    For you, gold will hit 1800+ tomorrow.

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  117. I mentioned yesterday that the 03' A-wave was the only A-wave that printed a positive divergence over the C-wave top on the True Strength Index, topping around +49(strongest A-wave)... we are already seeing a positive divergence on the Index,currently at +29 I think we will see a push to +50, which should hit right around the C-wave channel upper trendline.

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  118. Everything im looking at indicates atleast a test of the all time high.

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  119. WW

    So if we break 1804, wet shouldn't break to new highs by definition of an A-wave.

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  120. at ease,

    That would be nice, we may see some sideways chop around $1800.

    I watched the whole parabolic move out of the July bottom to the Sept low in realtime, I missed maybe 2-3 hours a night when gold wasn't doing much. Im not seeing that type of trade yet, there is no real participation yet out of Asia.

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  121. SF,

    If gold breaks the all time high we can wave good bye to a B-wave. A-waves dont move above C-waves.

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  122. Yep, noticed that about Asia lately.

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  123. Only because the current daily cycle is still too short to bottom here.

    You didn't sound like that two weeks ago or two months ago when you were super optimistic on Dollars future right at the top. The evidence I laid out in multi-email posts was so strong that the Dollar topped, yet you had none of it.

    You asked me if I would admit I was wrong, if and when the Dollar makes new highs. I said yes I would. Now that it turned out otherwise, you won't say it yourself, but just state that it's "only because of this and that cycle..."

    The dollar is approaching an intermediate bottom which should generate another leg up in the overall rally out of the three year cycle low.

    Anything could happen, and that is also a possibility too. Would I trade or invest into that outlook of another leg up in the Dollar? Personally I wouldn't. There are over 150,000 net short contracts to be squeezed on the Euro, so I'd rather not buy the Follar at anything everyone else is also bullish on the Dollar too.

    I found through my investment experience you better off not following everyone else, despite what the charts say; and instead being a contrarian than following moving averages, head & shoulders, or some other technical voodoo patterns straight out of amazon jungle.

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  124. Were still seeing profit taking end of day, and at the session open... continuing into the Eurex open and European open, most of the gains are occuring during the US session, usually beginning before the open. When gold starts really moving there will be little profit taking and a steady grind higher right out of the gate, continuing into the Eurex open and European markets open.

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  125. Jimmy Sinclair is talking the talk again... He sees the same thing, the The Greatest Parabola in Our Lives. And it's coming within just years, not decades, not 5's, but years.

    He wrote in his blog, "Jim Sinclair told King World News that movements in gold will become so violent that gold will become untradable to individuals. Sinclair also said that gold will be the last great bubble as it goes into a geometric uptrend. Here is what Sinclair had to say about what we can expect to see going forward: “Liquidity, it’s as simple as that. All of this is the event that’s taken place many times in history. Many times in history there has been an inflation caused by volatility in currencies called currency induced cost push inflation.”"

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  126. Slumdog - "Jim Sinclair told King World News that movements in gold will become so violent that gold will become untradable to individuals."

    Absolutely, the violent swings during the topping process of daily and intermediate tops is an almost untradable affair, to hold through the major parabola one will have to convince themselves that they are going to give back every penny and break even, then sell after they are convinced.

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  127. Tiho,
    I've said many times that cycles are mostly worthless for spotting tops. Yes I was expecting one more daily cycle higher before the dollar started moving down into an intermediate low.

    That being said the pattern of higher highs and higher lows is still intact. The dollar would have to drop below 74.70 before we could entertain any thoughts of the three year cycle topping yet.

    So yes I still expect once the dollar cycle bottoms, probably sometime in the next two weeks, that sentiment will have reversed enough to drive another leg up.

    At the moment sentiment is dead neutral in both the Euro and the dollar.

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  128. The most important question is: What will Gold be worth after the dollar?, i.e. dollar#2.

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  129. If anybody has any research or personal knowledge of the Ruble, or Peso re-denomination please share :*)

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  130. WW, looks like Asia is doing some buying now. :)

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  131. 1. Sentiment

    Public Opinion (shorter term more volatile indicator) from SentimenTrader might be neutral on both the Dollar and the Euro, but COT futures positioning (longer term less volatile indicator) is long term Euro bearish - therefore Dollar bullish.

    From a contrarian point of view, shorting Euros, while everyone else is close to record historical short is suicide. I think it is crazy to agree with the majority, majority of the time hehe!

    I rather let the short squeeze run through for several more months, before even entertaining the idea of buying more Dollars against the Euro.

    2. Higher highs / higher lows

    Yes, the Dollar Index is producing higher highs and higher lows. But the Dollar Index is really only the inverse Euro to be honest. Surely we want more confirmation on what the Dollars movement is, rather than just tracking the Euro itself right?

    You do not track S&P 500, just purely based on what Microsoft is doing, do you? Let us ask ourselves - as an exercise of broad Dollar breadth strength - which major global currencies is the Dollar actually making higher higher against, as you claim within the DXY / UUP?

    Well... hardly anything actually!

    - Not against Loonie (just made lower low)
    - Not against Aussie (just made lower low)
    - Not against Kiwi (just made lower low)
    - Not against Sing Dollar (just made equal low)
    - Not against Taiwan Dollar (just made lower low)
    - Not against Korean Won (just made equal low)
    - Not against Thai Baht (just made lower low)
    - Not against Brazilian Real (just made lower low)
    - Not against Russian Ruble (just made lower low)
    - Not against Renminbi (just made lower low)
    - Not against Mexican Peso (just made lower low)
    - Not against S. African Rand (just made lower low)
    - Not against Turkish Lira (just made equal low)
    - Not against Chilean Peso (just made lowerl low)
    - Not against Gold (just made equal Nov high)
    - Not against Silver (just made equal Nov high)
    - Not against Platinum (just made a new high)

    Do you really still think that following the US Dollar Index is the best way to gage Dollars future movement?

    Just because the Euro is weak, does not mean the Dollar is in an uptrend like you state. We have non-confirmation across the whole basket of major global currencies, when compared to the Dollar Index technicals. Same is true when we compare the Dollar vs Precious Metals.

    To summarise:

    If one takes global currency breadth into context for ones own analysis, than one can assume with high probability, that the Dollar has already topped against majority of the global currencies.

    At the same time, Euro's weakness is making the Dollar Index "look" strong technical, but that is only a mirage or a smoke screen of novice currency investors. Euro has super high weighting within the DXY and that should make us disregard DXY / UUP as a proper barometer of the US Dollar, just as Apple on its own is not the whole technology sector either.

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  132. who knows what it'll be worth, but the 'Amero' is on its way

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  133. MARKETS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  134. Ouch! Got gold?

    "For instance, Angola re-denominated its currency in
    1995 when inflation rate was 2672 per cent, while Brazil re-denominated its
    currency in 1994 when inflation rate was 2076 per cent."

    http://tinyurl.com/86k6tj4

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  135. In terms of seasonal is not March a time of weakness for gold?


    Anyway James maybe correct about shorting silver.

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  136. don't tell Gary you are shorting, he'll make you wear your ass as a hat

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  137. risk rally still going strong...c3x caught this entire wave in gold and spx with rpecisions.

    Updates from them on the next move

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  138. I'm ready to add on a drop tonight (remember I said I think we close on the highs fri), but I'm not sure we get one.

    The strength in this mkt continues to leave people behind and surprise.

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  139. I've got an order waiting if we retest the reverse H&S breakout -which is a rather typical move on most breaks.

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  140. >The most important question is: What will Gold be worth after the dollar?, i.e. dollar#2.

    1oz = 1 man's suit

    :-)

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  141. I'm 200% short silver as of now.

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  142. James,

    One thing I learned is to never short a bull market....Be strict with your stops

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  143. Sophia,

    I'm a silver bull at heart but there's huge resistance in this zone. Should it break through resistance, I will gladly take a loss and go long.

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  144. The dollar is only .17 away from it's 2nd failed dcl. Look out below!

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  145. Tiho,
    Everyone knows that the US has been intentionally devaluing its currency against most world currencies to effect a global rebalancing of demand in an effort to address existing trade imbalances as well as to purposefully export inflation to low cost/wage countries. The fact that the USD has been recently devalued against most other currencies is by design and should not come as a surprise to anyone. In fact, you could argue that that has been one of the great successes of QE as China is now battling persistent inflation and their minimum wage has grown by 20% annually over the last three years. The U.S. needs a weaker dollar to spur growth, but it also needs to maintain confidence in the currency and to attract foreign investment. The strong dollar policy mantra is now just lip service to keep foreign bondholders invested in US Treasuries.

    However, since the US, Japan and the EU still account for 70% of world consumption, the strength of the dollar is still best captured by the dollar index and measured against the relevant currency pairs (EUR, JPY, GBP). It should come as no surprise that these major consumer economies are now the main actors in the global currency devaluations. Against those currencies, the dollar will likely only continue to depreciate against the yen for the foreseeable future or until another BOJ intervention. In terms of the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK), these are more closely correlated to the price of their underlying commodity export and tend to fluctuate more as a consequence of global economic demand for their particular export. As long as global demand remains strong for hard commodities, these currencies will continue to appreciate against the large consumer currencies. Any global slowdown, however, will see these exchange rates adjust considerably lower like they did in 2008.

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  146. BTW, before you say it, I am aware that the USD is currently depreciating against 4 of the 6 currencies in the dollar index and that it's strength is primary the result of the weakening euro. My point is that the dollar index is widely viewed as a good measure of it's strength vs. the major consumer economies.

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  147. PST, I disagree. Trade Weighted Dollar Index is much better, but the best way is to just follow 30 major currencies vs USD yourself. You follow the European basket of currencies, Commodity basket of currencies, Asian basket of currencies, and rest of GEM currencies.

    History shows that unless majority of global currencies confirm the USD Index move, it never lasts for long and usually fizzles out.

    Currently the Dollars bulls say DXY Index is above 200 MA and making higher highs and higher lows. Dollar bears say that really it is only the Euro that is making the Dollar strong, while the Dollar is below 200 MA against half of e major currencies and making lower lows and lower highs against the majority of these global currencies.

    Broad Dollar weakness confirms that the technical picture of the Dollar Index will prove to be wrong as long as weakness remains broad. USD is currently toast and any rallies should fizzle out, no matter what "cycle it is"...

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  148. Mike, for the week, I agree. Great call for the next 7 hours :)

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  149. Failed daily cycle on USDX... should get pretty interesting!

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  150. Arron

    I think I heard the markets yawn.

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  151. S&P top SoS...we'll see if it holds

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  152. >metal tops are in imho

    I think another $25 up in gold before the close today.

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  153. SF, I think they will react next week.

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  154. Thats some big volume on gold! Someone wants that thing down!

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  155. Added to gold here. Holding well, and if it fails, I can add some more in the 1765 area.

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  156. With the DXY down, gold's performance seems rather muted. I know GLD moves in spurts, but this morning's action is plain weak.

    Others' opinions?

    PS / Good luck to you, WW.

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  157. Arron

    Maybe, but I've been hearing "next week" for about a month.

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  158. Gold got stretched above the 10 DMA. It's going to have to consolidate for a day or two before the next leg up. The dollar should still have 7-10 more days before bottoming.

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  159. SF, I dont trade equities, so perhaps, Im not the best person to predict what they will do!

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  160. It's the same with oil. It moved too far too fast and needs to rest for a day or two even though the dollar is very weak.

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  161. Gold is taking a breather, better here than at $1800.

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  162. Buying the late morning dip in miners sure has been a predictable day trade lately. Other than that, today looks like a good day to turn off the 'puter and enjoy life.

    Good luck!

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  163. Does anyone here buy bullion for a hedge against $ collapse? Just curious.

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  164. James, at what point will you be tapped out of capital?

    What % of your investment/gambling capital did you place in your short?

    At what dollar point will your losses now mounting be large enough that you announce you've covered and you're no longer a player?

    Very few can take the losses you're taking without major capital erosion, which means player cessation.

    As you're telling the blog what to do, and IMO, are at very high risk of busting your position and your savings backing it, I'd like to understand your investment posture as it will help me and others "see" what your risk in fact is.

    If you're worth millions or tens of them, then this is just a waste of your time, a nothing burger, and I'll see it as such. If you're attempting wealth accumulation, I'll see that too.

    TIA

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  165. The RMB/USD number is 6.2930. In the past week, it has bounced around this bottom range.

    What's happening is that the RMB is locked to the USD I think politically stuck to it. If it slips up in value, there's a continuing and major risk that once it slips, there will be a dogpile by the other linked currencies, and China will drop into recession as it is priced out of the market.

    The rising cost of energy, which means production cost and transportation cost, will continue to slam at the foundational advantage China has held, cheap labor.

    Hence, I'm all for $10 oil. That will halt China's advantage and bring work pouring back to US, EU and JP.

    Personally, I don't care if the 3rd world countries suffer at $3 oil or $10 oil. That's a different problem. To me, the major problem is China's having received the manufacturing genie with open arms solely due to labor price arbitrage. That it will be reduced is not a question; it's a matter of how and when.

    Hence, gold and silver will rise in anticipation of this slip n' slide event.

    I'm waiting for the earthquake.

    Just like so many of us did in 2006 and pre-crash 2007, it's easy to identify which companies will be the winners and which the losers when the labor price adjustment earthquake occurs.

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  166. WW, I have never posted here before but I wanted to say that I appreciate your posts and come Monday morning I'll be sending out good thoughts in your direction.

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  167. tim knight shorting the miners again. i believe the last time he did that was on the super obvious "trendline break" on 2/15.

    added.

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  168. WW

    There's a reason why you have such significant outpouring of well wishers here, you're a class guy.

    Best of luck next week, heal well and return quickly!

    wmp

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  169. Euro up big again.

    All problems solved.
    Full steam ahead.
    No recession in sight.

    (yes I know, a little thick on the sarcasm)

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  170. Incredibly tight trading range today in gold. I can't remember the last time I saw gold trade in such a tight range. Classic consolidation day I expect.

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  171. St. Deluise

    Does Tim knight have any money left? Shorts have been crushed, unless they are still holding on for dear life.

    I bet a bunch of people shorted AAPL when it cracked. They must be in the garage with a hammer to their fingers.

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  172. WW,
    The people in the shadows wish you well!

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  173. A beatdown in access on a Friday... how sad.

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  174. Looks like big money doesn't want to hold over the weekend.

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  175. It's the usual 2:30 PM pukeout as volume drops with Europe closed

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  176. Dan

    Makes sence. I guess if there was a buying trend it would have bounced higher.

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  177. AAPL could be a double top here. Enjoy your weekend everyone, we'll see what Monday brings.

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  178. MrM,

    Great point on AAPL...I believe that we will make a slightly higher high (to run all the those short stops)

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  179. NikeB,
    Just basing my view here on gold, silver & oil's past runs; all time high price, drop back, climb to high price again and then flush.
    Of course, not a guarantee of any sort.

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  180. MrM,

    Yep..we're thinking the same..

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