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Monday, February 13, 2012

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299 comments:

  1. Do what I do. Trade in and out with every engulfing candle. Odds are overwhelmingly on your side. In the mean time, I keep preaching how there is going to be a depression for the 10th and 11th time.

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  2. big puulback in VIX this morning, though one thing I have learned is to not put a lot of confidence in early morning knee jerk reactions to news...

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  3. Speedy, I expect you were referring to VIX. I bought more HVU.T at $10.25 this morning for this exact reason. if I'm right, it'll be a great trade; if wrong, could it really go much lower than $9? methinks not (but what do I know, really)

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  4. Nice sophia, possible we get a narrow range day today, take profits.

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  5. WW,
    To answer your question from last night, no not trading here, can't do anything on the move, too uncontrollable although I could set up stop losses and such...

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  6.  AAPL has an ugly candle today.  How do you spell "exhaustion".  
    AAPL & SPY also poking their heads on the SoS list but a very small #'s

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  7. ANybody follows humble hero from Harvard..LINSANITY

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  8. The Madison Square Garden Compa (MSG)all time high after LINSANITY

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  9. Knicks vs Lakers

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shJbtVPA8as&feature=share

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  10. Sophia,

    Could I message you directly please? Do you have a twitter account so I can send a direct message to you?

    Thanks

    ess

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. Big names with small #'s on SoS list.

    AAPL
    Spy
    Cat
    Dis
    Ko
    IBM
    Cvx
    Csco
    Utx
    C
    Pg
    Intc

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  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  14. fasttrader

    why post when i can not access it?

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  15. Please, no more investment news letters/websites. We are tapped out...

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  16. HAHA SFG, I agree. This place has become a breeding ground for newsletter sites.

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  17. I was thinking the same....
    Too many blogs, letters and opinions to follow in a confusing market

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  18. Something is going on in Euroland after hours...Eur/usd is getting trashed! 1.3250-60 is key

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  19. Sophia, Moody's downgraded several European countries.

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  20. http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-downgrades-europe-2012-2

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  21. We got gold's 10dma rolling over and breaking the DC trenline now, this is when things usually start getting scary. I get excited :)

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  22. WW,

    10dma below DC trendline means a possible hard pullback in gold ? You must already in shorts ?

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  23. Quy,

    Yes almost certainly a hard pullback, Im short from the European open last night.

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  24. WW,

    I loaded up on the SLV puts today too. I've been keeping track of the put/call volume and it's at record low for the past 6 months. Too much complacency out there. If my indicator is wrong, I hope yours will save me :-)

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  25. If gold is going to break to the upside and begin a new DC it better get a move on it.

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  26. Farm Girl,

    If you're out there, I have a question for you.

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  27. WW,
    Are you getting any sleep? You need to be resting up for next week?

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  28. ww, "10dma rolling over and breaking the DC trenline now"

    didn't it do that on Friday?

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  29. ww thanks for heads up on 1736 range. Didn't break through so shorted a nice trade. Good luck on 27th.

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  30. John,

    10dma didn't break the trendline until today.

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  31. If gold breaks deep, I got three Fibonacci levels all converging at $1673, the C-wave 23.6%, Daily Cycle 38.2%, and 200dma 78.6%.

    50dma is close below them.

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  32. And one of the downtrend lines comes in about 1670. A very powerful area.

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  33. The dollar just pushed back above the 75dma.

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  34. Sophia and Arron

    Yea we can rename the blog to "Gary's newsletter launching pad" :-)

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  35. there was another newsletter launched today by another blog regular, and it wasn't Poly

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  36. Last Week I got a couple emails telling me that "things can't keep going up...we may get another flash crash this thing is so extended".

    TRUE...could happen, but also...

    I wanted to show others ..."This is what could happen too, it did before."
    So I drew charts this weekend...

    2010 Market Run Up---holding 10 & 20 sma's for 2+ months!!! --people thought it would lead to a crash

    http://www.screencast.com/t/bkQU8xSZaf

    Right now, we have the same 2+ month run up!! (holding the 10 & 20 sma's)...so crash must come?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/EKOB94gtjr3m

    Here was the "Big Crash" many warned of (less than a month dip to the 50sma)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/53cZVByi9Bn

    So could a repeat do this?? Time will tell.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/7Y3af4cYIT41

    The reason I write this is because I have seen( and been trading ) many good set ups
    in individual equities all along as mentioned in my post last week. IF WE GET A SECOND LEG UP...YOU DONT WANT TO MISS THOSE MOVES....so keep this in mind.

    COMMODITIES have been explosive %-wise.

    Disclaimer: I do not own a pay subscription site and am not opening one. I just want to help people see what COULD happen too...

    -Stay Frosty!

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  37. In 2010 the intermediate cycle low came right on cue.

    The intermediate cycle has been one of our most dependable tools. It functioned perfectly even during most of QE1 & 2.

    I have no idea why people all of a sudden think this time is different.

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  38. its eating my patience now..despite strong dollar...its not falling down..i hope we get a move down instead of up..so as to get a set up pointed out by Alex..

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  39. Alex,

    Those were the two SPX 50+ day QE2 stretched Daily Cycles I was talking about last week. If you look you will see that the golden cross (50dma crossing the 200dma) was well in effect before the first significant pullback occured, right about where we are now in this current cycle. Last week I had mentioned that I took a measurement of the first daily cycle which topped on day 49, it was basically the same exact length as this current cycle we are in now, which if having topped already would be on day 50.

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  40. Funny you should say that WW

    I drew this chart for a friend over a week ago , trying to point out the same thing

    http://www.screencast.com/t/uFrRDEIf

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  41. I said 47 days , but the swing was 2 days later ; ]

    I posted that chart here 2 wks ago too, I believe. It's been a great run.

    Many equities have doubled and even more in just that time...Whew.

    HOWEVER...I am NOT saying we'll see part 2 again...just maybe and keep alert .

    Hey, I wish you the best on your upcoming surgery!!

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  42. Alex

    Take a look at this timeframe comparison.

    Put on your Seat belts. Comparison of post crash 1987/1988 and 2011/2012.  

    SCARY to say the least...

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  43. Alex,

    In that first Daily Cycle which topped on day 49 (56 day cycle) there was a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level off the 200dma. If this current Daily Cycle were also to retrace to the 50% Fib level off the 200dma we would see a bottom around 1306.

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  44. Alex,

    We think alike.
    Thanks alot my friend :)

    Im glad your back.

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  45. SF

    Looks good , a nice drop to clear sentiment is always a good thing.

    And WW I was looking at the 1300 area too (for starters).

    The 50sma is just below 1300 , and a trendline from the lows of OCT, Nov, Dec also leads right to their for added support.

    I usually go one step at a time, so from there...I would re-evaluate how we got there.

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  46. Alex,

    Last week when I took that measurement, I believe it may have been on Thursday, I mentioned that if this current cycle were to top at basically the same exact measurement it would be on Friday at day 50, it also converged with the 5/2/11 high. Lets see if this top holds.

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  47. Alex said:

    "The 50sma is just below 1300 , and a trendline from the lows of OCT, Nov, Dec also leads right to their for added support."

    If this decline chops (similar to the Nov 10' decline), the 50sma should be right around the 1300 handle by then.

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  48. W W

    Do you have a thought about what the markets may do after a dip here?

    I have been looking at all the commodities rising up off the bottoms and I feel (BUT I WILL SEE WHAT THE MKT SAYS WHEN IT'S READY) THAT WE CONTINUE HIGHER.

    It may be another "Sell in May and Go Away". But time will tell.

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  49. And yes the Intermediate Trendline has also converged with the 50dma.

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  50. Alex,

    We have to see in realtime where the next correction lands us, that will give us a better idea of what the market plans on doing afterward.

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  51. one silver lining for bears is base metals are weak since last 2 days..and one can ignore oil based on iran news

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  52. LTRO and QE to infinity I assume is going to have the same effect on the market that QE1 & 2 did, so we may very well see another stretched Daily Cycle higher.

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  53. QE2 had a much smaller effect than QE1. I expect QE3 will have even less effect.

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  54. The market actually declined for an entire daily cycle after QE1.

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  55. Right Gary QE 2 definitely had less of an effect though.

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  56. definitely QE3 have strong effect on SPX daily cycle (as it got stretched enough) and on emerging markets...

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  57. when QE2 started, emerging markets started their year long correction at the end of 2010..

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  58. Aaron re 13.14pm post, thanks!!
    Need to catch up on all the chrts that you drew and shared Alex , thank you!
    W2, kept my shotts April at 1737.60, so far so good...
    Added long usd/ jpy last night, target around 78.18 to start...

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  59. All thanks to you and the Team my friend :-)

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  60. This movie The Italian Job is pretty good.

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  61. Sophia,

    Glad to hear it, thats what friends are for :)

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  62. Oh yes, I loved the race between the 3 minis!

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  63. Marky Mark just stole Gary's 35 Mil in Gold.

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  64. sophia, than you. Maybe I will visit Paris some day. I think I would like to sit by the Seine with my thoughts

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  65. Eamonn,

    girls are so pretty in Paris that I don't think that you will be able to have too many thoughts!! LOL

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  66. sophia, yes, I am sure they are very special

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  67. thanks for correcting me william wallace

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  68. this Eur/Usd keeps grinding higher...
    Sold back my USD/JPY, made 0.77%

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  69. To all those special hot ladies out there, ...at ease, sophia, etc I wish you all a very Happy Valentine's Day

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  70. Thank you Eamonn, you are the man!

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  71. WW,
    Looks like another opportunity coming up to get in short?

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  72. wow, this gold is not willing to go down without a fight!

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  73. If gold has no plans of pushing higher and is indeed at an A-wave top, this is where bulls and bears start getting whipsawed to death, as gold begins to grind into a B-wave. As we seen with the C-wave top, we may see here on a smaller scale, possibly the branch of my falling fruit pattern being formed here.

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  74. This is when I just leave my short on with a break even stop and watch the show, as I did with the C-wave top.

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  75. SF Giants Fan --

    The graph you posted on February 13, 2012 9:30 PM is just amazing.

    Thank you.

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  76. WW,

    During B waves you stop trading gold?

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  77. Felipe,

    During the C-wave top I shorted gold at $1900 and just left it on for weeks as the top churned out. If my stop is not triggered I just let it ride and take a break.

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  78. You try to trade at this point in the topping process (if gold is indeed moving into a B-wave here) and you will get bloody. There's a time when you just step back, even when short, and just watch.

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  79. W2,

    I like when you see your falling fruit pattern...It does usually mean fun times ahead and sleepless night like in Sep2011 when it traded the lows at the European open!

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  80. Sophia,

    Yup, remember that night, me you and TZ watched that entire puke playout.

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  81. W2,

    it was really cool to witness that!
    now, look, I sold back my USD/JPY at 78.10 thos morning and now the beast is cruising at 78.30!! Arghhh....
    BUT, I had an epiphany. Gary is right, the currency war has started...BOJ is starting to weaken the Yen and they are going to make it this time! You can buy Nikkei hands over fists on this one!

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  82. ...at ease --

    Have you been in Zermatt?

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  83. DP,
    I did a quick tour visit there years ago. Why do you ask?

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  84. ...at ease --

    I've seen you've been Happy ValentinedI by Eamonn as one of the girls in here, and thought I had a discussion with you in Swiss kitchen restaurant during latest SMT meeting in Switzerland.

    That wasn't probably you.

    Happy Valentines!

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  85. DP, Sorry, no wasn't me. I was in MX while SMT group was in Zermatt. Hope you find her. :)

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  86. WW,
    Just asking if you thought there was still an opportunity to get in short if we get up to resistance today?

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  87. at ease,

    Resistance is at $1735-37, you put on a short here your stop has to be above that area.

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  88. Thanks WW, will see if we get back up again today, to consider an entry.

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  89. AAPL

    Relentless buying again. #1 on BOW

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  90. Cac40 barely down 0.4% but French Banks are getting hammered...all down 4.5%-5%

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  91. SF Giants Fan --

    Do you know what kind of news triggered that 2008 avalanche?

    Or it came out of the blue?

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  92. Oil and gold don't seem to be "buying into" this USD strength.

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  93. DP,
    2008 was triggered by 700 billion in debt that needed to be rolled over in Sept. The banking system was basically insolvent so the financial system locked up when the banks tried to roll that debt.

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  94. Gary --

    Thanks for commenting on that, but I've made a mistake -- it's not 2008, it is March of 1988.

    In a reference to SF Giants Fan chart:

    http://www.marketanthropology.com/2012/02/seat-belts.html

    Any known news event triggered that one?

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  95. 1988 was the start of the Russian default that brought down LTCM.

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  96. I have to say silver is showing impressive relative strength.

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  97. Gary --

    LTCM was brought down in 1998, not 1988:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

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  98. Oops sorry I missed the 88 and thought you were talking about 98.

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  99. I spoke too soon maybe on silver...

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  100. We officially have a weekly swing on the dollar.

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  101. 20dma strong support for gold right now, needs to crack.

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  102. give me 4$ more in Gold and we are there!

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  103. If the SPX can breach the 10dma here gold will crack the 20dma, then the bleeding should begin.

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  104. So are you folks looking for a DCL or ICL? All the monopoly money flooding the world has me confused.

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  105. WW,

    Assuming last Friday was not a DCL for gold, we would now be on Day 31 of a daily cycle. This cycle is very mature... over-ripe, even. It does not seem like the most opportune time to be trying the short side, even for someone crazy enough to short a bull market.

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  106. My initial short was put on at $1760 on 2/2 when I warned of a potential A-wave top, took the short off at $1710. Went long and took that long off at $1722. Put the short back on at $1737...nothing crazy about that.

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  107. Also posted when I was in and out of those trades.

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  108. WW, you should donate your brain for medical research

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  109. I have a break even stop on my $1737 short, im not in the second powerful DC camp at the moment, made that pretty clear over the last week or so.

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  110. watching that 10dma on SPX like an hawk....

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  111. 1737? C'mon, I thought you were better than that? /GC made it to 1737.2 that day. :)

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  112. Eamonn,

    Maybe WW is taking the pill of limitless (Cooper & De Niro).

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  113. LOL Matt, You had to see my face that night! :)

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  114. Matt,

    I actually took profits that day and went long,Then short again Sunday night at 1733.30, if you remember I also mentioned on Friday that at the open on Sunday we would see gold test that $1735-37 level, and it did exactly that.

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  115. Gary

    Great call on the buck. I can't see many longs wanting to hold thru the upcoming 3 day weekend. Let the selling begin...

    You Never know, Moody's might downgrade the US debt next.

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  116. Saint Valentine's Day massacre....

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  117. WW,

    Yea, I awoke to a 1735 fill. It was a nice way to start the week. I am sure you were watching it live at 4:00 am EST.

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  118. Just covered my gold short, this is a tough area here for both the SPX and gold, I see a clean break of the 10dma and the 20dma I will put it back on.

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  119. LOL Matt, you do that often, I remember a while back you putting in a buy order and going to sleep, I think at 1578, and waking up to it pleasantly filled :)

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  120. I get lucky once and a while. Of course the risk in doing such a move is high and usually wakes me up once or twice during the night. Just as easily as I could get filled, I could also wake up with a zero balance in my account.

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  121. Yup, I remember that day you woke up very happy though, gold was over 1600 for the first time if I remember.

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  122. I even remember you saying "I bought a boat load of contracts"

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  123. Wow, you have quite a memory. I think that was my quote to a tee. You are starting to scare me. LOL.

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  124. If the branch of my falling fruit pattern is indeed being formed on a daily, we will likely see gold remain wedged between the 10dma and the 20dma for another day or more, on the last day before the fruit falls there will be a backtest of the 10dma. You can see an example of this in the C-wave top.

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  125. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  126. WW,

    I'm not questioning your trading skills, only your lack of risk adversity. In the environment of economic and geopolitical risk we suffer these days, I would not be able to sleep with a PM short on my books. We could wake up any morning to a surprise... a nuclear test by Iran, the announcement of a gold-backed currency by Russia... and suddenly see gold several hundred dollars higher. Perhaps none of this will happen, and a skilled trader such as yourself will continue to milk the markets, but if such an event were to occur, you could lose a year or more worth of profit overnight.

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  127. risk "averseness" I meant. Sometimes I type too quickly.

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  128. Doc,

    Thats why I trade futures, and never suggest following any of my trades unless with futures. Everyone here knows that.

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  129. BTW, I dont plan on starting a newsletter.

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  130. W2,

    tst, tst, no teasing like that mon ami!
    BTW, small advice of a friend, DO NOT FORGET THE FLOWERS TODAY!!!!!

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  131. bought USD/JPY for the night....hoping for a nice surprise tomorrow morning "a la Matt"

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  132. Sophia,

    when I said "BTW, I dont plan on starting a newsletter." I didn't mean it to tease, simply meant that I share my trades for one reason alone, to help others.

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  133. This top (if it is a top) in GLD does not now look like Nov. There's no bipolar up/down, just little jabs up/down. This is looking to me like a bull flag now. Before I said I'd enter at 171.23; now I'd enter at 167.94, w/a floor at 166. FYI 166.5 or so has been tested 4X, and we did not go lower.

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  134. William Wallace ,

    Not the falling fruit pattern again? Do you have a target at what price it will fall too?

    Sorry if you have already made this known. I have been quite busy lately.

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  135. well, now we are suqeezing...whatever

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  136. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  137. Today's action is a very good example of why Gary's #1 trading rule is never, never, never, never short gold (at least while it's in a bull market...another 3 or so years)

    Gary knows what he's talking about.

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  138. Rob L,

    I mentioned a few levels I was looking at if gold breaks lower. Here's the post. The only thing that changed is the DC trendline is now well above the 150dma.

    "Just want to point out (besides trying to pin point it in realtime) a few significant levels im looking at for a DCL in gold now that the move into a DCL may be underway...

    First of all, as I have mentioned many times in the past, a break of the 10dma this late in the timing band for a DC top almost always indicates that the move towards a DCL is in effect.

    If the requirement for a DC trendline break is fullfilled, the 150dma and $1700 handle will be breached, they have basically all converged.

    If the 150dma is indeed breached, below that we have both the C-wave 23.6% and the current Daily Cycle 38.2% Fib levels at $1673, which is also the 11/22 DCL pivot.

    If that Fib level is breached (personally I dont put too much faith in them as hard support)we have the 50dma currently at $1664, which I have much more confidence in for a firm bottom.

    If the 50dma is breached under heavy selling pressure we have the 200dma not far below, if this were the case most likely the 200dma (or slightly above it) will mark the bottom and give us a key reversal that will close at or above the 50dma.

    A into B waves are even more tricky to navigate than D into A waves...one A-wave daily cycle or two? Maybe three! If two the second possibly fails and one is caught in a B-wave...you know the deal.

    Wouldn't it be great if gold was just entering the bubble phase and the ABCD pattern was abolished?"

    February 4, 2012 11:15 AM


    I also have targets for a top in mind if we get a second DC higher...talk about that when the time comes.

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  139. GLD at 166 is important - Ben's Jan 25th comments left gold there at market close. Then the 26th GLD gapped up and went higher. GLD is now testing that gap between 166.00 - 166.50, and the gap is holding so far. If we start going higher (higher high's on the 30 min chart) I'll buy a small pos. Say at 168.00.

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  140. WW,

    Futures won't protect you from being on the wrong side of a catastrophic event. Or did you mean options?

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  141. Naw, screw that. If GLD closes above 168 tomorrow I'll take a bigger pos.

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  142. ... and fully invested w/a close above 170.

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  143. Doc,

    Futures, I would be stuck in options overnight.

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  144. If gold is going to go down as the daily MACD suggests, it had better hurry up. We need 2 or 3 big down days asap, or else we're going up.

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  145. Happy Valentine's Day to all the ladies, will you all be my Valentine?

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  146. TheDoc, are you still bullish on gold? Are you seeing the last week's activity in gold as a bull flag? I'm not a cycles guy and I don't follow the dollar anymore; just watching gold here makes me think that it's going up. If it's going down, it had better hurry up.

    I think of gold as an emotional beast - like a lion sitting in the grass - or a tiger shark cruising by a school of turtles - it may look like it's resting but have no doubt gold is always ready to pounce and kill.

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  147. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  148. Bill,

    If you think gold is going higher, wait for a swing low (move above $1737) to enter.

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  149. If the stock market begins to correct gold will not escape.

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  150. Anyone follow business cycles? Isn't technology one of the first sectors to benefit?

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  151. The energizer bunny is still going AAPL.  Volume continues to fall off.

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  152. WW, thanks for your comments.

    I'm using the 10d EMA as my trigger at $1725 - a close at or above that would cause me to go long.

    If the S&P fell hard and pulled gold down w/it, I'd be smiling ear to ear. I'd be then looking for a higher low - the bottom of the B wave I guess, if Dec was the bottom of the D. If gold goes lower, then the D is back in play as Gary has on the back shelf.

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  153. Apple is near a peak.

    Irrespective of Gary's comments I was noticing the same action.

    If I was long apple I would be out within the next 5 business days.

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  154. When I say apple peak, I mean THE peak. As in 500billion for the company and that's it. Done. Over.

    Apple is a maximum optimism. Maximum ownership. Maximum everything. There is also the law of 'large numbers' to contend with. It's hard to get a double when your investment is near the largest mkt cap in history.

    This accellerated surge in the chart looks to be a final capitulation and buying frenzy.

    Technology is VERY fickle and FEW examples in history have a permanence in the field.

    I don't own apple, but like I said I think I would take the money and leave at this point. It has been a heck of a ride, but I think there are better choices going forward. Maybe I'm wrong.

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  155. I would also suggest that the 'gleem' of iphones and ipads is starting to die off.

    Most iphone owners are now on their 2nd or third phone. Not much is changing going forward. They will be a bit faster, or larger screen or whatever. But the "I have an iphone so I'm COOL" factor is starting to die I think. It's just a phone and no matter how neat something is people tire eventually.

    Having portable tablets is nice and that is a bit newer, but Android is close to being 'good enough' and Microsoft launches windows 8 in fall including and ARM based tablet version.

    I simply think the investment is played out. More room down than up on apple.

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  156. This week is options expiration. The sweet spot for GLD looks to be 165 - $2 down from here.

    That interestingly coincides with the same zone I am looking to buy and it would push gold below 1700 (gold FUTURES options expire later in the month so that is a different thing).

    Most of the manipulation for options week happens before fri. Friday's just end up being flatlines often. So I expect this move down in the next 48hrs.

    That would also still be within the window of this cycle low people are expecting.

    And even WW was making comments about that buy zone.

    So it is looking good around there I think and we are almost in.

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  157. We also have that swing in the dollar gary was talking about, and DOC often says that new cycles in the dollar (IF they are heading down) usually peak in 3-5 days or so. If that is true and we are heading lower then going up for another 2 days or so ALSO meshes with my expectations for gold.

    So I'm liking what I see.

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  158. TZ, what % of the time have options expiration for GLD actually hit, say over a 3 yr timespan?

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  159. oh what conclusions you'll draw when one decides to use USTs as their deflation/inflation metric rather than the US dollar.

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  160. i mean.. given the fact that WORLDWIDE currency devaluation is the impetus for gold's bull market..

    at some point these currency ratios lose their meaning, don't they?

    especially for something like gold, which (presumably) the same absolute price worldwide.

    not saying that time is now, but *eventually* it will be necessary to abandon the idea that gold's moves are somehow dependent on the DXY.

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  161. >TZ, what % of the time have options expiration for GLD actually hit, say over a 3 yr timespan?

    No idea
    :-)

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  162. TZ,

    I too think AAPL is peaking, but here' the monkey in the wrench. Stock markets seem to take lead from AAPL, if AAPL is peaking, does that mean GLD will move up with stocks moving down ?

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  163. Does GLD produces phones and computers?

    Why would they move the same?
    Just because the cross ownership on the same electronic exchange?

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  164. phones and computers produce an inflationary environment or at least negate deflation.

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  165. Bill,

    Yes I still believe gold will have another bullish daily cycle (and oil, too). The nice thing about cycles is that once gold confirms a new daily cycle with a swing low and trend line break, I will have a hard stop on positions just in case I'm wrong.

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  166. $NYMO ended up -15 today, although this bearish trend can carry further south I think it bounces again, as it did on Monday.
    Green Wednesday.

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  167. Im long gold futures at $1720, stop below the 20dma.

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