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Thursday, February 16, 2012

Portfolio change

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405 comments:

  1. Gary,

    I don't post here much, but I have been your subscriber for years - longer than most people on the board.

    I have to say that ALEX has been posting his trades in near real time for a long time and has been scary good. There is no need for you to be so testy and cancel his subscription.

    You have to admit that several people have made much better calls in the past few months.

    Several people here use cycles to supplement their styles - not everyone trades exactly as the model portfolio.

    And a lot of those people are using what you have been teaching - the cycles methodology to arrive at different conclusions than you.

    This for instance - yesterday, gold had a swing low in the timing band. The last daily cycle was right translated. The most likely outcome here is there will be a second daily cycle and will exceed the previous highs.

    Your scenario may turn out to be right. But this is the most probable one using cycles theory.

    You may say we are in the D wave or B wave. But the fact is you've called a D wave and rescinded it at least 4 times since the silver collapse last year. Forget the dollar index for a moment as all currencies are being devalued and its a measure against them.

    You should encourage comments here, not discourage them.

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  2. at ease,

    If gold moves above yesterday's high I will most likely go long. Took off my short this morning, just waiting now.

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  3. WW, what if gold closes above 1729 and has a bullish tail?

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  4. btw, I did make depresssion prediction number 12

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  5. I'm assuming you are now NOT expecting this market to move down into an immediate low?

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  6. Never said that. I said I would try another short term trade.

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  7. Todd,

    Gold closes above the 10dma I will be long.

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  8. W2,

    You don't seem as extatic as the others about getting long here...what is bothering you about the setup?

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  9. at ease,

    I meant to say above yesterday's close.


    "If gold moves above yesterday's high I will most likely go long. Took off my short this morning, just waiting now."

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  10. Sophia,

    I never get extatic either way, I am emotionless :)

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  11. Only show emotions when you're terrorizing nurses?

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  12. Miyagi,

    I do get excited here and there, but for some reason its only when im short :)

    Definitely nothing exciting about being around nurses, they use me as a pin cushion!

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  13. You're doing pretty good WW, I have zip emotions most times (99%) with money and the market.
    Huge contrast to when I started 10 years ago, sweating, heart beating all that jazz..

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  14. "Never said that. I said I would try another short term trade."

    So you are doing a short term trade against your intermediate term projections? In the past, you have noted that you think it's always best to simply ride the bigger picture instead of catching every little wiggle.

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  15. Got it WW!

    BTW, Miyagi-sensei, I should have listened to you this morning...you say " careful not to sell too much today"...You have been calling the daily moves pretty right from your hotel room!

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  16. Eric,
    We've been catching little wiggles since May.

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  17. Thanks sophia,
    It's a collective community here, everyone has good information.
    I can't wait to be out of hotels and in a house, this is getting old...
    Anyone need a house-sitter in an expensive city?

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  18. Eric,
    The fact the the stock market didn't break down like we were expecting was one of the determining factors of taking the trade today.

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  19. yes...you said, expensive city LOL

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  20. Fair enough.

    In last night's report, you stated the following:

    "If that correction moves below the January 30 intraday low we will have a left translated and failed daily cycle in progress, which is what I have been anticipating."

    If you expect the IT low to come in March, do you still anticipate it to be left translated?

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  21. London's about as expensive as it gets I hear. You're renting out during the Olympics?

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  22. At the risk of a shitstorm...

    Alex you nailed it (again) :-)

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  23. no, I am too nice for that...I am letting friends use my place...

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  24. friends... hmm.. I'll keep that in mind when we get around to London...?? heh heh

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  25. MrMiyagi, I have few cow sheds outside

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  26. Ver,
    This is what I sent out to the aggressive portfolio members first thing this morning.

    "The miners are right on the trend line this morning for anyone that wanted to take a shot at that trade."

    I was only expecting a short term pop but it could turn into more if the stock market forces the dollar to break down.

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  27. Allright.. wife says get off the laptop, time to go look at houses.
    I think positive markets untill Tuesday seeing this Greek moneybleeding is on Monday but I'll see later at the close.

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  28. They were already prepared for it last night.

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  29. Keep in mind, if Gold does have another DC higher we can see a test of the C-wave highs and the A-wave still be intact...which means we possibly still have a B-wave ahead of us.

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  30. Unknown:

    I'll push back on one part of your assessment. The last several trades of Gary's trades have been anything but "buy and sit back with low risk". Virtually every entry and exit into and out of GDX is highly sensitive to the timing of Gary's real-time calls. Minutes and some times seconds make for a 1-3% difference.

    Now, Gary has done a good job of picking when to be in and out so there's zero criticism about the quality of the trades and recommendations, but it's totally false that you don't have to be quick and attentive to make money alongside him in the "post C-wave" era.

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  31. Good call Gary, you nailed it too then :) I don't have any visibility into the aggressive portfolio. But you're clearly building an excellent read on trading the HUI.

    By the way ,y comment to Alex wasn't a backhanded insult to you, it was throwing some love Alex's way since he's one of the few others besides you who consistently sticks his neck out with turning point calls.

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  32. My falling fruit pattern played out on point, and the 150dma acted as a floor...I would be suprised if gold doesn't move into a new DC higher now.

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  33. ver-

    I wouldn't touch GDX with a barge pole. Way more correlated with the stock market than with gold. I only own and trade gold bullion.

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  34. SPX breaking out above the July high.

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  35. NY spot gold just went green after being down $24 on the open. Gold looking stronger than an onion sandwich right now.

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. Unknown:

    That's a funny mental image :) Well I won't disagree with you on that. Sticking to gold here as well for the foreseeable future, especially with the stock market pushing the upside the way it is. Never ends pretty.

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  38. Thank you VER

    And there are some nice "T/A " patterns shaping up that usually indicate 'reversal'.

    Bullish engulfing off bottoms in SLW, AUY , FSM,GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, etc

    And UUP has a bearish engulfing .

    This is if they close at current prices or better. good volume buying too. ALSO some bull flags tight on wkly chart (SLW for ex:)

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  39. Nice calls Alex. I have not paid much attention to many of the comments here, but I will look forward to reading more about your thoughts from now on.

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  40. everyone no complaining! these little daily arguments aren't going to mean anything when gold/silver doubles/tirples/quads up, and we've traded it all the way to the top. thanks gary, alex, ww, poly and anyone else who is a professional and shares their opinion to the non-pros. you guys are great and there are 1000s of people here who don't say anything who really appreciate everything you guys do -- especially gary!

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  41. gary,

    "it is a mark of an educated man to entertain a thought without accepting it": aristotle

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  42. In a previous post I detailed my levels for a gold DCL...

    First - 150dma
    Second - Fibonacci levels
    Third - 50dma
    Forth - 200dma

    I mentioned in that same post that the bottom would almost certainly be marked by a reversal off an MA and close at or above the prior supporting MA that was breached (the 20dma in this case).

    Barring something crazy today should mark the DCL.

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  43. WW:

    Sorry to ask you this again but which close do you mean? Do you put a ton of weight in the precise closing price or treat it as a rough guide. The strength we're seeing here makes it tempting to pre-empt the close.

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  44. If the SPX is sold off into this breakout of the July high, and drags gold down with it, or gold decides it needs to take out the 150dma, we keep an eye on those levels I mentioned below it.

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  45. Ver,

    When I see a move above yesterday's close $1730, gold will have moved back above the 10dma, I will put on the long with a stop below the 20dma.

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  46. See the 20dma was actually pretty tough support yesterday and last night, looking at a daily chart now seems as if gold just blew through it both up and down. This is what I was refering to when I was talking about certain MA's looking ineffective at different times.

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  47. Since Alex won't toot his own horn I want to tell everyone that Alex told me and several other traders that we hang out with that today was likely to be a great buying opportunity for gold and miners BEFORE the market opened.

    Here's a line from a message that Alex sent to us at 6:17 AM Pacific Time (9:17 ET) this morning (13 minutes before the market opened):

    "$1703 was my target for Gold, but the way Miners are lined up...I am thinking that we will see a buy on Miners today (Gap down open) and gold will turn up."

    Based on that message from Alex, and watching the market action this morning, I bought NUGT at $20.75. Right now it's at $22.95

    Thanks Alex!

    The other trader I follow is another long-time poster here on the SMT blog that many of you will recognize, he goes by the nickname "BobLovesHawaii"

    Bob has been KILLING it lately and he posts his trades on Twitter @BobLovesHawaii

    Meanwhile, I will continue to subscribe to Gary's premium service because I like his cycles commentary and market insight.

    As I posted the other day you can never have too many good investing ideas.

    Gary is good, Alex is good, BobLovesHawaii is good ... and they all have different trading styles.

    Now, as Rodney King once said, "Can't we all just get along."

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  48. WW:

    Thanks. I'm seeing that GC made an intraday high of 1730.5, which is why I ask about if/how you honor where it closes today (vs. just the intraday price action alone). Obviously we have yet to push through *and* hold above the 10 DMA which may be why you are still in waiting and seeing mode.

    Agree the 20 DMA went from a rock to soup between yesterday and today. Why then set it as your stop level vs. a more firm MA like the 150? I know that's a much looser stop but at the same time the sudden ineffectiveness of the 20 could result in a quick whipsaw.

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  49. Whoops!

    I just went back to the previous post and saw that Alex posted the same message HERE this morning!

    So you all had the same info I did.

    Way to go Alex!

    For those of you who don't know, Alex is a full-time professional stock trader (like Gary) so he is very generous to share his valuable insights here.

    Thanks again!

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  50. Ver,

    The 20dma will be hard support again, especially now. Im long now, you see the breakout of yesterday's high now.

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  51. Grrr I keep saying that...I meant breakout of yesterday's close!

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  52. Spot gold 1730 seems to be resistance.

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  53. Oops, just saw that WW just said the same thing just above. Sorry I just woke up.

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  54. My target for a new DC and A-wave top is the C-wave upper trendline, around $1873. If we got the dollar topping here on day 5 that shouldn't be a problem.

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  55. On the 60 min chart, GDX just filled the gap left on last Thurs the 9th.

    I'm not so sure GLD/GDX are going up here ... I think WW's right about 1730 gold, which is still holding.

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  56. Bill,

    I was thinking the same...Gold hasn't moved since last week..It will very soon, most probably up but who knows...If the rally on the USD, we are still at the same price as last Friday

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  57. Nobody complimented me....I could start a paying website with my comment this morning

    Sophia said

    Riley,

    Thank you but it was William who gave me the guts to short on Monday....and since I saw the rally above 1740 after the fact, I was lucky enough to keep it....But we shall see how far it goes, it seems that everybody is ready to jump on bioard at 1680, so I am not sure we will even get to 1700!

    February 15, 2012 11:52 PM

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  58. I AM JUST TEASING !!!!!!!

    No kidding Alex, that was a great call!

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  59. Hi Sophia, yea it's tricky.

    I'm now eyeing 170 GLD again. A close above that would definitely cause me to go long.

    UUP still looks like it's going up to me. Yes today's candle and volume look horrific, but so did Jan 4th, after which price went up. The daily MACD is definitely up on UUP.

    170 GLD is my line in the sand.

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  60. I honor of Alex, I've named every one of my children after him. All 8 of them. It gets confusing.

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  61. Sophia, you're a GREAT trader! You shorted gold, and then went for a walk in the park with your kids. Now that takes major kahuna's! You'd be a great air traffic controller.

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  62. Bill,

    there are priority in life! Hope Tokyo is not too freezing that time of the year!

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  63. Gary,

    "the stock market forcing the dollar to go down.." I always assumed that it was the dollar that drove the market and not vice versa..

    In anycase, just wanted to let you know that your thoughts on the dollar strengthening will probably not happen... Also, you need to see without bias my friend

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  64. Something smells fishy here...Monday is Bank Holiday in the US...How will people keep their long trades over a 3 days weekend? I will be ver surprised to see a strong rally into Friday...

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  65. Today's high in the $SPX has neg div on the daily RSI, SStoch and CCI. And AAPL didn't make a higher high, and also has neg div. It's a top. The dollar will rise, gold fall, and Gary's right. Me thinks.

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  66. Gary,

    Since you have said the GDX trade is short-term, how long do you NOW expect it will be before the stock market rolls over?

    The market seems to want to keep grinding higher despite (or maybe because of) expectations of a big drop.

    Alex and others have speculated that the stock market could keep grinding higher for a couple months with just mild pullbacks, similar to what it did in 2010.

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  67. No one called all this better than Doc, IMHO, and after all the s**t he took here, here's what he had to say when someone on his site congratulated him for winning anohter burrito bet:

    "As I've said before, Gary is a smart guy, and I knew he would get on board at the moment of truth. He just pulled off a successful dollar trade and then bought GDX at very favorable prices, so I'm not so sure I won anything.'

    Very classy IMHO.

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  68. With all the liquidity being provided from the biggest central banks, I'd wager we see the grind higher with only short term pullbacks (albeit scary ones):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/while-you-were-sleeping-central-banks-flooded-world-liquidity

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  69. TheDoc is definitely classy.

    This market is tricky, that's all there is to it.

    Top physicists from MIT and Oxford with IQ's > 200 don't agree on a lot of stuff, so I think it's normal for smart folks to disagree sometimes.

    One thing they all agree on is, when the market starts to trend they all get on board. At least that's how I see it.

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  70. slw_fiend,

    thanks for posting that. It's a good reminder for those of us who stayed long PM's during their move into their DCL, while Gary did the prudent thing and closed his PM positions and went long the dollar. Short term trade yes. But he made money on the UUP trade. AND he gets back into the PM trade at a better price. Hard to argue with that kind of success.

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  71. Gold still hasn't even closed back above the 10dma yet, make sure those stops are in place.

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  72. WW,

    I have the 10dma at 1726.5...am I wrong?

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  73. WW,
    Where are your about are your stops I was thinking $3 under the 20 dma

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  74. About 3 weeks ago Todd Harrison of Minnyanville said told Aaron Task at Yahoo that he expected the market to have a 'gut check' at 1360.

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  75. WW,
    I am showing spot gold with a 10dma at 1726.24 with the current price at 1728.56. Does that count or should I pay more attention to April futures?

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  76. Revision: I'll go long GLD when spot $GOLD goes above 1739.20, yesterday's high.

    I think WW said this yesterday, correct WW?

    Also, it still strikes me as major important that AAPL didn't make a higher high today - AAPL is the market LEADER and MAKER. W/out leadership, this is all suspect. Just saying.

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  77. sophia:

    I've got it at 1729.5, where it continues in aftermarket flirtations with /GC.

    :)

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  78. Sophia,

    10dma is at $1729.50 Gold futures.

    Todd,

    That should be fine, when an MA holds it holds. If gold is headed higher the 20dma should hold tight, as it was last night before gold finally breached it.

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  79. Danno

    And Tom Demark said he'd go short at 1370

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  80. Alex,

    May I send you an email? If so please email me at joetrader35@yahoo.com

    Thanks and best wishes,

    Michael

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  81. I know, I feel a bit dumb, but to be long now ahead of the long w/e feels for me like betting the bank. Flat will be better for me....

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  82. Bill,

    Thats correct, but that was before I seen gold drop to the 150dma and put in a strong reversal (although it was SPX driven), so I changed my entry today to a bit below that which was a breakout of yesterday's close and a move above where the 10dma is today. Yesterday the 10dma was at $1732.60, today $1729.60. I also have a close stop at the 20dma, which if gold is to follow through off this reversal and 150dma bottom, it shouldn't move back below the 20dma unless the SPX drills it below it.

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  83. Sophia

    Yea I know, the risk of a "gap down Tuesday" would be scary. Have to see how Friday at the close plays out.

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  84. SF,

    Indeed...and even if we don't have a big gap down, the markets have rallied so much in the last 6 weeks that if people think that a positive outcome is reached it will rally 5-8% they are dreaming!
    Back in May 2010, when the ECB floaded the markets, the European markets were down 15% and rallied for 1/2 day by 10%...Now, we have rallied, so it really doesn't make sense...

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  85. Sophia,

    If we were close to a TOP in the metals/miners I would be nervous holding over a 3-day weekend, but most of us now assume that we are near a BOTTOM for miners and the PM's so I will hold FULLY loaded over the long weekend.

    If you look at what happened last month after a 3-day holiday weekend, GLD gapped UP on Tuesday Jan 17.

    I'm just sayin'

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  86. Sophia

    Plus there's been spy SOS all week. It just feels like one big bull trap.
    Everyone on the blogs are bullish and you know what happens when everyone is thinking the same thing...

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  87. GHI,

    sure...I am pretty thick, so I will wait...I agree with you that miners are the way to go, but ultimately they will follow the S&P first, so close to a top of the broad market I am suspicious...
    But, of course,I am sure that if I don't take the trade, it will be a mega winner, ah ah ah...LOL

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  88. Ver,

    Just following up on your earlier question about why the 20dma and not the 150dma for my stop...if I believe that today's reversal will indeed see some follow through (depends on SPX follow through also), gold should hit resistance first at the $1725 handle, second the 20dma at $1722, and then the $1720 handle, my stop is below second and third resistance at $1719, so if my stop is hit I would think gold is going to breach the 150dma this time around and rather be out before then with a small loss. If I did happen to get whipsawed , gold is not going anywhere without me if it plans on blasting off afterwards.

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  89. WW, I've turned on all the SMA's you noted, and I see what you're saying. Very interesting. Up until now I've been using EMA's as triggers; but I do also see now that SMA's act as support/resistance.

    At the moment, GDX, SLV and SIL are all below the 10d SMA, and GLD is only 0.10 above it, so to me a breakout is not confirmed yet, despite the candles.

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  90. Bill,

    Thats why I said earlier "gold still hasn't even closed above the 10dma, make sure stops are in place". The SPX rolls over deep and gold will almost certainly take out the 150dma.

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  91. W2,

    and my little barometer, IPT is not moving....

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  92. Bill,

    Gold futures may still close below the 10dma today, but it really all boils down to what the SPX does from here, unless there is a complete decoupling as we seen on Feb 3rd.

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  93. WW, I've been following your posts for awhile without comment and want you to know that I appreciate your input. I have a question though, How are you deciding what sma's to use?

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  94. Getting pretty stretched up here. Should be interesting to see how equities pan out next few months. I still think PMs will pull back further...but its just too tricky to initiate anything at this point.

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  95. Mike,

    I use SMA's that have proven to be historically effective (in realtime also), ie. the 150dma was extremely effective in halting basically every intermediate cycle decline throughout the last C-wave, but was pretty much meaningless in halting IC declines prior. Several MA's are effective at different points in history, within cycles, and on shorter time frames also. Many of the pivots you see on a chart, whether it be a monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 5 minute...are created by MA's.

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  96. WW,

    As its 10dma is declining Gold is likely to open above it by default in the new session. No need to pierce through it.

    By the same token, silver may open below its rising 20dma (presently above it).

    Interesting to see how they play out overnight.

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  97. Yup that is exactly what is going to happen, gold futures closed above the 10dma though. In the past I pointed that out to Miyagi, gold closed above the 10dma, opened below it and it acted as resistance. But thats not to say it will have any effect other than short term.

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  98. 200 SMA on 5 min GC is around 1722 and rising - good place to add, WW?

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  99. Looks like the 10dma for Gold has now reversed and it went higher, albeit negligibly. GC closed and opened just high enough that it stayed above the 10dma.

    Silver on the other hand did what was predicted and opened below now below the rising 20dma.

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  100. WW:

    Thanks, makes sense. Though the 20 DMA is trending up and is at 1726 now, so if it is supposed to show strong support then just under 1726 makes for quite a nice tight stop.

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  101. GottaHaveIt
    "Alex is a full-time professional stock trader"

    What do you mean by professional? Someone who trade for institution?

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  102. Don,

    Re: Alex

    I meant that Alex trades stocks full-time for his living. He does not have a regular "job" he lives off his stock trading investment returns. He does not manage money for anybody else.

    Same goes for BobLovesHawaii.

    They both make their living trading stocks ... so they HAVE to be good, otherwise they don't eat and can't pay their mortgage!

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  103. Ver,

    Yup at 1726 at the open now, it's above 1725 support now, today it was below it, so if it acts as strong support now as it did last night gold should hold above 1725. Although gold may penetrate the 20dma it will look to close above the 20 as it supports the move higher.

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  104. Harry,

    If the 20dma holds gold should trade sideways if anything until the 200sma on a 5 min catches up.

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  105. Yeah GC is basically milling around while the 10 SMA on the hourly chart "catches up". Actually, looks like a bear flag waiting for a match to be lit under it.

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  106. Here's what I have learned over the past 24 months since finding this blog. 2010 was awesome and I made a bunch of money following Gary. Since the silver crash, I have been killed an given most of it back because I can't sit in front of the computer and trade all day long. I have basically given up and will probably just sit in cash until it seems like all this sideways stuff is done, but by then, I'll most likely have missed a big part of the move up.

    Oh, well.

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  107. Elaine,

    It would be better to hold a core "Old Turkey" style, then turn off your computer and walk away.

    Figure out what percentage of your assets you're willing to hold for the duration, be it 50% or whatever.

    If you go entirely to cash, you will panic-buy back in at the top of whatever wave we have next, then panic out again on a big decline.

    Owning 0% is as radical as owning 100%, IMO.

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  108. David,

    Thank you. You're probably right. Feeling a bit frustrated right now.

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  109. We want to see the 10dma stay above the 20dma, not the 10dma force closes below it until it crosses beneath the 20dma, this indicates a down trend. It's close.

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  110. I was only expecting a short term pop but it could turn into more if the stock market forces the dollar to break down.

    Stock market doesn't force the Dollar to do anything. Dollar doesn't trade against the stock market. The Dollar trades against other currencies and they force the Dollar to move up or down.

    I've written many posts here why the Dollar has already topped and that any greenback rally will just fizzle out, creating another great shorting opportunity.

    I'm not sure what the portfolio change is, but I take it you are now out of the Dollar again just to an outside day candle last night in US (I live in Asia)?

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  111. WW,
    WW heart beats MAs,
    no emotion in those MAs ;)
    Thanks WW if you are strong long, let me know. :)

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  112. Elaine, I feel for you, it' hard when you think it all turns against you. We have a big yearly correction coming up end of March/April/May time frame. Gary will know when that time comes. At that time take a big position in TGLDX and just let it ride up, You will be riding the bull and making dividends on those funds. TGLDX pays great dividends. Two others recommended to me were GGN and MCP. You know it will go down when we do go down, however you will be continually going up and also making dividends. So you will do fine doing that if you can't trade constantly.

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  113. Elaine,
    If you can't be available for short term trades then just take a position and leave it. The bull is going much much higher before this is over.

    As long as you can weather drawdowns you will come out just fine. Actually you will probably come out rich.

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  114. Gold futures above 1740 will put my system to a buy.

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  115. A push into 1740s would also make a higher high and break the daily cycle downtrend line. All eyes open...

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  116. at ease,

    I am strong long from $1730 today, a break of the DC down trendline and I will add.

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  117. Thanks Veronica, Ver and WW!
    Good to know and what I have been waiting a long time for. :)

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  118. WW, can you let me know when you add?
    Thanks, will add another contract.

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  119. WW, you have to set up your own letter

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  120. ...at ease,

    TGLDX is a great fund, and it's great advice to Elaine to invest in it, but if I'm not mistaken, what you're calling dividends are really just distributions -- the fund is distributing taxable capital gains. The fund also carries an expense ratio.

    Again, it's a great way to go, but you could just as easily buy GDX or GDXJ or both. The important thing is just to be invested and ride the bull.

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  121. Thanks David, I didn't realize they were not dividends, all my funds are in retirement accounts.

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  122. gary
    out of the last few intermediate bottoms the dollar has either retested or crawled along the 20 day ma before taking off. is that what you think we are seeing here

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  123. mike,
    This one has me stumped. On the weekly chart it looks like the dollar has put in an intermediate bottom, but if the stock market continues to rally then we could see another cycle down. I expect it would be a little short since the last one was long.

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  124. S&P made a yearly cycle low in October

    That takes precedence over mid-term and daily cycles


    1260-1280 is first area of real support, 1250 after that and I bet a sandwich and a soft drink that next intermediate low will be a higher low

    We have had a yearly cycle late 2011 and it is just forcing the technicals from a larger frame of action

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  125. Yes the intermediate cycle is extremely right translated. The odds are very high the next correction will hold above the Oct. low.

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  126. But that does not mean that one should sit in an take the punishment of an IC correction :-)

    One either sells/reduces into strength and set the remainder on trailing stops -- 1330-1340 is lowers I would set for stop at this point

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  127. There will certainly be another intermediate degree correction. I'm assuming the current trade will be another short-term affair unless the dollar cycle fails. If that happens in our trade will probably be 3 to 4 weeks long.

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  128. i think everyone was surprised by the strength of todays rebound. the 11:30 selloff in the dollar seemed to coincide with the announcement that the ECB would do a bond swap on their greek debt holdings

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  129. Elaine's problem is related to what I mentioned yesterday to TZ.

    Early Feb 2010 was a good entry point and I added to positions at that time.

    GDX is up only 22% since then, GDXJ a horrible 12% (but has had large distributions). GLD is up 53%.

    Then take a look at the likes of NGD, AG, and SLW. That stresses the importance of picking the right miners. Otherwise it's better to stick to GLD than miner indexes over the long term. Short to medium term I hope miners do better across the board.

    And there is a reason that GDXJ is only up 12%..... there are many juniors that are in the red over that period. I own some of those but they are small speculative positions purchased after they plunged. Overall, dabbling in this category has not been too fruitful yet. Except SBB.TO but that miner is a "winner" long term with a large pull back. JAG is doing well too because of speculation about a buyer.

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  130. ahh if only we had a crystal ball and could know before hand which miners are the "right ones".

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  131. I think the trading cycle happened on Dec 30, I have heard Tim Wood thinks it was on Dec 13, but that just does not fit momentum and breadth profile

    If I am right, Early March may have the trading cycle and the intermediate cycle aligned for a low

    I am hoping index can drive higher to drag as many as possible and squeeze the shorts clean. That can usually get some fireworks when everybody's in

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  132. Gary,

    as for miners, I am absolutely with you, it is a mine field and one has to know so much about mine location and ore body density and stuff like that, it makes my brain fry in its own fat -- so the ETF is my choice

    but, royalty players have been my faves for individual stocks

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  133. RGLD, load the boat and go to sleep.

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  134. Speaking of currencies, I was reading a consensus survey on Forex that a friend at a bank forwarded. It's mostly not interesting but every currency had a PPP chart.

    We all know that PPP will show the dollar to be undervalued against most currencies but this one had long term charts and you can clearly see that JPY move like they should on average over time with great divergences. And it depends on the inputs for PPP and of course this is manipulated data. This one used PPI (producer price index) without explaining the motivation.

    Actually, JPY has been in pretty close synch to PPP since the financial crisis in 2008 where its under-valuation disappeared because the carry trade disappeared. It then moved to slight over-valuation.

    I note that PPP for JPY is 85 so it's not that overvalued and it's a 45 degree angle line going from left to right at 140 in 1992. EUR is actually at 1.25. It was fair value at 1.18 when it started in 1999. Also EUR/CHF is very close to PPP at this time at its rigged level with slight CHF over-valuation. Not that you would think so if you use the Big Mac PPP index!

    Oh, it also shows that the Renminbi is fair value based on PPI PPP. Not something Chuck Schumer would like to hear. Japan imports more from China as % of GDP than the US and they don't whine about currency manipulation. Also, Japan's trade with China is roughly in balance.

    I would like to see someone do PPP analysis using TMS money supply instead....

    If you wonder where the USD can appreciate I only see the EUR but once it's below 1.25 we see PPP over-valuation. I don't think the yen is going higher. And AUD, NZD and CAD are very over-valued, especially the first two. Also the BRL.

    But, I have also preached in the past that the USD index is not a driver of anything else. That's why I think Gary and others get far too caught up in dollar analysis. It's a yardstick of market conditions, but it's like saying that it's due to the thermometer that it's cold outside.

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  135. Moody’s Warns Big Banks of Possible Credit Rating Cuts

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  136. Well, it requires a combination of skill and luck to pick the right miners. I have been successful in doing so. My three big buys in Oct/Nov 2008 were NGD, NXG and SLW. NXG was a laggard but patience worked well due to an acquisition last fall. I still have some (as AUQ) in my IRA, which I happened to purchase in Feb 2010 and it is up a modest 30% still outperforming any miner index.

    I mean, if you were investing in tech stocks in recent years then you would not have to be clever to focus on Apple rather than QQQ.

    p.s. RGLD is +63% vs. +53% over 2 years.

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  137. Finding the perfect miners is darn near impossible, but I keep on trying! Something always seems to come up--this one buys this junior and the market thinks they overpaid (EGO, AUQ, PAAS, etc), this one has it's mine shut down and the stock gets crushed (HL, AEM), this one is subject to rumors of nationalization (PAAS, AUY, NG), this one has false rumors spread around about it (SVM).


    PS...AGQ outpeformed just about all the red hot miners out of the Dec low. I go with NUGT & AGQ mostly, but hand pick a few too.

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  138. Jayhawk, I don't and haven't owned anything you mention except AUY. I only have a small position left because I sold in 2010 due to under performance. It's a good company.

    Also some AUQ because of the acquisition but that benefited me. I think AUQ could be a buy for the future based on the NXG acquisition and its undervaluation.

    But AUY was probably the best big cap miner in 2011. It's up 35% over one year while GDX is -5%.

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  139. WW,
    I am going to take your advice and at the next top, sell off some TGLDX and buy some RGLD or use the profits to buy RGLD.

    Elaine... you see this one...RGLD per WW.

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  140. A couple of other miner royalty companies to consider buying and forgetting, other than RGLD and SLW, are Franco-Nevada (FNV.TO) and Sandstorm (SSL.V). Sandstorm closed at new, all-time highs today, run by ex-SLW management.

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  141. Thanks MM, will look at those also. :)

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  142. The year before AUY didn't do much and I kept buying it and watching it do nothing (2010) only to see it finally break out with out me.

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  143. RGLD is not worth buying relative to GLD, in my opinion.

    Sandstorm has been on my radar but never pulled trigger.

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  144. Frank, why is that GLD over RGLD long term hold?

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  145. Remember this $USD projection I drew over a month ago? I have not edited the chart since. Note the purple dotted line.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p67572198947&a=243271916

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  146. To be fair, here is another dotted line that exceeded my expectations. Of course that's why it was 'dotted'. It was only a guess.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p61311286585&a=241643000

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  147. Want a miner??Look to Nevada and Rye Patch Gold.RPM.V-Do some DD on them and you will find top notch management that's finding Gold and last fall they claimed a bunch of claims that CDE forgot to pay fee's on.Good Luck

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  148. Good morning, watch for the coal stocks to break out. bull flags on PCX and JRCC.

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  149. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/02/watch-coal.html

    Some details

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  150. Bob Loves Hawaii,
    Coal is back to the bottom and is sooo unloved.
    It may make sense to have a speculative position?

    Thank you for sharing this.

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  151. Looks like both companies are losing money.

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  152. I have to say I'm still wary of gold at this point. I expected a stronger bounce out of a DCL with the dollar dropping nearly a full point.

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  153. The 'flag' in gold some have mentioned is not a flag. It's a nothing. You can't call it a flag until price closes above the upper trendline. Just FYI.

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  154. Harry,

    I hear you, take a look at a daily with the 10dma and 20dma applied, we want to see the 10dma stay above the 20dma, if it crosses below it, not good at this point.

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  155. Its definitely possible that what were seeing is nothing more than a bounce off the 150dma, that will be short lived. Gold needs to break above the DC trendline.

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  156. Took off my gold long at break even $1730, wait until I see a break above the down trendline, im not liking the fact that the 10dma is ready to cross over the 20dma.

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  157. WW,

    I think we will have a day or two of 10 below 20 just by their rates of change. This will happen either Tuesday or Wednesday. (Monday, the market is closed).

    Note that they are both rising now, so its not like the 10 is going below the 20, but rather the 20 is going above the 10. That is the effect of 20 rising much more rapidly at the moment.

    But obviously, that is the effect of the past 2/4 weeks. Yesterday's suspected turnaround has little influence at the moment.

    The 10 turned around just today - a few days of gains will increase its rate of ascent.

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  158. Thats always the case at tops though.

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  159. If gold is indeed still topping, the 10dma is moving below the 20dma.

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  160. Looks like a bounce off the 20, at least for now.

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  161. I have no problem waiting for gold to break above the DC down trendline at $1740.

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  162. Gold loses the 20dma again and the 10dma is going to be drilled below the 20dma, the makings of trend change.

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  163. Were seeing the exact opposite with the dollar index.

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  164. WW,

    You´re truly amazing!!!

    "Listening" to your comments on markets moves is like watching a soccer game!!!! lol. Emotion and action every minute.

    Keep your fantastic work, giving us more and more lessons about trading.

    Thks for your kind.

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  165. Same with the death cross (50dma crossing below the 200dma). I know Danno is eyeballing it.

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  166. We never dropped (so far) to my prefered entry below 1700 and I haven't added anything else like GDX.

    I'm just watching with some uncertainty as to what is going on.

    Gold is still in a 3-4 week congestion here and I think it could go either way although, like most everyone else, I BELIEVE it's going higher and I feel like I should up my core holdings or go 1x. (But when I do that without a good entry or stop any declines tend to unsettle me so historically I know I'm not as suited to that and tend to avoid).

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  167. Man that gold sure takes a toll when hitting that 150 dma on the 2 hour gold chart.

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  168. Equity options expiring today are going to jerk things around so I'm not sure much of the action can be trusted today anyway-up or down.

    The 'big move soon' I was mentioning will probably happen after today's close and the options are gone.

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  169. Re: RGLD. I looked at the company a number of years ago and did not like what I saw. Can't remember any details. Its performance is marginally better than GLD over 2 years. Over longer term it has underperformed GLD. So why take the risk? There is risk even with royalty companies. The 5 year chart is +157% for GLD and +121% for RGLD.

    Re: PCX. I purchased it right after it listed in Jan 2008. I sold one third when it hit $100 (more than 3X) by early summer a few months later, sold another third around the peak at $150 a week or so later, and the rest at break even a couple of months later. Its chart rivals the likes of PCLN during and post the dotcom era. I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole unless they can sort out their business. I remember that balding gypsy on CNBC was screaming about it back in 2008. It was the #1 mo-mo coal stock.

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  170. TZ(8155),

    We have a swing low in gold occurring deep in its timing band for a DCL, and now a swing high in the dollar (if yesterday's high holds). If gold breaks below $1700 we have a failed DCL and an intermediate cycle will be in play and we should all sell our positions anyway and anticipate a large move lower - perhaps well below $1700.

    I know you have a unique trading strategy, but if we one follows cycle analysis we now have a relatively low risk entry point with huge upside.

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  171. The silver bubble has burst.
    Silver isn't going back to 50 bucks without extreme inflation.

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  172. www.barchart[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/chart.php?ss=1&spread=rgld%2Fcef&p=MO&d=M&sd=01%2F01%2F2000&ed=12%2F28%2F2011&size=M&log=0&t=LINE&g=1&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=#jump

    RGLD doesn't perform any better than a 50/50 mix of gold and silver sitting in an insured vault doing nothing.

    In fact it has a slight downward bias against the vault.

    Until that changes (or the div goes higher than sub 1%) it would seem safer to just hold metal.

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  173. If your comparing metal with miners, why take the risk with miners at all then.

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  174. Markets top on good news and bottom on bad.
    My 2 cents is Greece gets their buckets of money over the long weekend, world markets rally on Monday & Tuesday while big money dumps to dumb money.

    As for gold, Gary's the man...

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  175. And if there's no money in the bucket?

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  176. ROB,

    Cycle rules of 'this and that means this if we break that low' or whatever are just made up guidelines.

    The market can move however it wants in any direction at any time and reverse however it feels like it.

    The rules help and all, but rules are made to be broken ESPECIALLY by financial markets.

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  177. WW-

    Spot gold now below the 20 dma. Are you keying off April futures for your MAs?

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  178. >If your comparing metal with miners, why take the risk with miners at all then.

    That has been my point all along, UNTIL the produce results that warrant that higher risk. (Individual stocks outperforming doesn't count cause you need to hold at least 3-5 to be safe and then you have created your own index which will likely perform close to GDX)

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  179. A few miners have out-performed gold by a large margin, especially since end-2008, which is my reference frame. That's when I changed my investment theme from shorting the financial sector to investing in PMs mostly miners.

    I probably should have converted some of my miner profits into gold last year, but that's to say with hindsight.

    I also dabble in some turnaround stories in miners, but that's quite risky and don't really recommend it. Only small positions. GSS, JAG, KGN and SBB.TO. Well, the latter does not produce anything yet, but was badly beaten up after the September swoon.

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  180. "A few miners have out-performed gold by a large margin, especially since end-2008"

    Doesn't make them less risky.

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  181. Re: RGLD, I was comparing miners, not miners with metal.

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  182. Erich

    There isn't any money. As SB says, it's all confetti. But they will print like there's no tommorow.

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  183. Hi everybody!

    Was travelling fthe whole day...now in the French Alps! Gorgeous! Gary, when are coming to climb the Mont Blanc?
    I will bake you my famous chocolate cake, very little flour!

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  184. Hi Sophia,

    I think we know each other. Do you work for RBS in London?

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  185. James,

    No never did...what do you do there.?

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  186. Sophia,
    Until I get my bad knee replaced I probably won't be climbing any big mountains for a while. I'm trying to keep it going for another year or so. I figure I need at least a year to have a shot at world records.

    Training for nationals has just been one injury after another. It's getting really frustrating.

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  187. I don't work for RBS but I know someone from RBS called Sophia who is the Swiss Alps right now.

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