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Saturday, March 24, 2012

CAN BERNANKE BREAK THE DOLLAR RALLY?

In response to a bursting real estate and credit bubble in 2007 Bernanke's solution was to crank up the printing press and flood the world with dollar bills. Unfortunately it didn't solve our problems, it only made them worse. The real estate and credit bubbles stayed busted, but that liquidity had to land somewhere. In 2008 it went straight into the energy and agricultural markets spiking the price of crude, gasoline and food. This in turn collapsed a fragile global economy that was already reeling from the real estate implosion. The end result was the exact opposite of what Benjamin intended. Instead of halting the real estate collapse he just magnified the severity of the recession.

Unfortunately Bernanke has not learned from his past mistakes. The wicked sell off in 2010 was met with QE2. The even more severe decline in 2011, which should have initiated the next bear market and started the move down into the next four year cycle low, due in 2012, was aborted with additional money printing disguised as Operation Twist and the European version LTRO.

On the surface it looks like Bernanke has been successful. The economy has rebounded from near recession in 2011 but the unintended consequences are already in play as oil is now back above $100 a barrel and gasoline over $4 a gallon. Bernanke has steered the Titanic straight into the iceberg and now there's no turning back. If Ben doesn't raise rates and drain excess liquidity oil is going to continue to rise until it destroys the global economy again.

The dollar is at a very important juncture. The current daily cycle topped on day 11 which is right in the middle of being left or right translated. Left translated cycles are the hallmark of a declining market (lower lows and lower highs). 


Right translated cycles are associated with rising markets (higher highs and higher lows).



How this cycle plays out is going to determine the path for all other assets. The current daily cycle topped right in the middle of being right or left translated. As long as the impending cycle low holds above the February intermediate degree bottom then the pattern of higher highs and higher lows will still be intact and the dollar will still be on the upside of an intermediate cycle.



In this scenario I would expect the stock market to roll over soon and begin moving down into an intermediate cycle low in late April or early May. Gold's B-wave would resume after a short counter trend bounce and continue down to test the December lows.

 
If however, the dollar were to penetrate the February low it would signal that the intermediate cycle has already topped and the pattern has reversed to lower lows and lower highs. In that scenario we should see the dollar moving generally lower for the next 15-20 weeks.



In this scenario the runaway move in the stock market could continue for another 10-15 weeks, and gold's B-wave probably bottomed on Thursday as another shortened intermediate cycle.




This scenario would also trigger another leg higher for oil which will eventually poison the economic recovery. 

The next couple of weeks are going to be important. I'm expecting the first scenario where the dollar continues to make higher highs and higher lows, but I'm prepared to reverse course 180 degrees if Bernanke can break the rally and push the dollar through the February 29 low.

202 comments:

  1. *Dollar falls* Oh... there was no way anyone could have picked the top in the Dollar, that is just luck and guessing. It wasn't until Bernanke said so, that it became clear. You see, now that he said so, the Dollar is failing. It's called "real time" anaylsis.

    *Dollar rallies* Oh... Dollar is making higher highs and higher lows. The trend is up no matter what Bernanke said. You see, the Dollar is rising. It's called "real time" analysis (rest of us must be analysing things in past time).

    Just brilliant. it's a win - win!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hate to point this out, but we don't know yet whether the dollar will make a lower low (well unless you have a working crystal ball). As of Friday the pattern of higher highs and higher lows was still intact.

      Delete
    2. You tend to just use one tool - cycle work - for your analysis, so unless it is in the scope of cycle work... you tend to disregard it and talk about crystal balls and luck for anyone else who actually gets it right. Gain more knowledge on how things work, other than cycles or go out and buy a new crystal ball. Both could help.

      Delete
    3. Actually I use a combination of cycles, sentiment, COT reports, and a bit of technical analysis.

      And I'll point out again that we don't know yet whether the dollar has topped or not because the up trend isn't broken yet. You don't know either, you're just assuming your right. I'm not prepared to make that assumption.

      Delete
    4. Part of the reason I'm not willing to make that assumption is that it would stretch the stock market intermediate cycle to 40+ weeks. I can't ever recall seeing an intermediate cycle that long. And that would be 40+ weeks to a top. That doesn't even include the time needed to move down into the intermediate cycle low.

      Delete
    5. There is no saying how deep or shallow an IC cycle may cut

      there is also no saying from what height an IC cycle may start

      weeks of a sideways chop can form an IC low

      So, just dumping S&P because one may think the IC low is to come may not be the way to go

      setting stops based on 1385 may be a better way for an existing position to continue riding the uptrend that has so far defies so many top pickers

      Money is made rising trends, and this has been a hell of juicy trend in the stock market

      Delete
  2. Nice report... will be interesting to see what new tricks Bernanke has up his sleeves.

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  3. Great website- just stumbled on it via a friend who subscribes - not sure if this is a Gary article? Anyway- as a trader - Some good some bad- I think no one should should get hung up on the macro dollar inverse vs commodity play ..... They can go together or separate at ANY time ..... many examples last 80 years of isolated markets working independently .... And the ag piece in this is NOT dollar related..... Much more structural than that....if that is all that matters than simply decide on direction and bet nat gas and see where you end up----- should be easy then ;) and more importantly ( only because it appears you guys and galls are obsesed with PM so much)...the dollar and gold CAN easily rally together

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  4. Gary, my advice is to ignore some people because they are so belligerent that you are wasting your time.

    I understand 100% what you are saying. Sure we can all make assumptions on market direction based upon a variety of analytical techniques but in the end just let the dollar decide the outcome and then tell us where it is headed, at present only a psychic of astounding ability would have the remotest idea OR "Tiho".

    And I agree that the stock market cycle is way overstretched however the top may already be in and we just haven't had the hard push down that just about every man and his dog has been expecting.
    We may not get the hard down phase until later in the cycle.

    I have to be honest I can't ever remember a market behave quite like this one and I think that the reason for it is that there is a degree of intervention to support the market just enough by the PTB who are waiting and attempting to encourage the retail investor to back into the market.
    They are dangling the carrot but for once the retail investor may just be wising up and are more concerned with protecting their retirement accounts than gambling on a investment that could come crashing down around them.

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  5. OK, Tiho, I'll take the bait.

    What is YOUR analysis? When and where is the dollar headed? When and where are the major indices headed? When and where are the metals headed? In what sector are you investing?

    I, for one, would appreciate a "heads up," and thank you in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not concern myself with where, but just with when. Dollar is headed down and has been since January, PMs are headed up and they have been since late December. I'm invested in Agriculture since middle of December, Silver since late December and Swiss Franc since middle of January. I don't own stocks, nor do I plan to invest in them until the secular bear runs its course and the bond bull market finally tops after 31 years of declining rates. I only concern myself with commodities and foreign currencies right now.

      I don't use cycles, so I came up with all that none sense by just have a crystal ball instead. Hopefully it is still working...

      Delete
    2. Oh wow so you got into all your trades at the exact bottom...I see...but yet you stick around here to read Gary's analysis. I have a sneaky suspicion the reality is a little different then you portray it.

      Delete
    3. Dan - read the post below.

      Delete
  6. Invest or trade?
    Short termism is a dead trade...its gonna kick ur butt when u aint looking.

    In my mind its simple....Follow the trend of the last decade ..which btw still holds.....
    USD down...GOLD (PM's) up....stocks artificially held up ....until algo's kick in on a black swan event. Cycles are always part of those trends. But increasingly they are the realm of those that are light of foot and nimble in mind and quick of hand.
    I cant understand the short term mentality. Play the swings..at ur own peril. They are becoming more frequent and more volatile. Ask urself how long u can sustain that environment in winning mode.
    Lets be clear about what the FED does and doesn't do.
    It was established by the Elite Money for the Elite Money.
    NEVER was it meant to serve the public....but merely to "give the impression"
    that it was acting in good faith..by controlling money supply and interest rates
    so as to keep the economy from growing too fast or from stalling. All the while the Elitists were expandng their balance sheets and leveraging to the hilt off of a growing world population.
    Ultimately it is controlling the very thing that influences the economy. The benefactors
    of the credit and liquidity available are and always will be those that have the use of debt money without recourse.
    Ben aint saving the economy nor is trying to stimulate it. What he is doing IS creating history.
    He is IMHO the ultimate Presdigitator. If you look very carefully you can see his slight of hand.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I think the second scenario will happen and long in SPY as a result. Yes, Bernanke is doing the wrong thing, but you can't fight the Fed, there's so much liquidity that stocks can only go up (& dollar down). The old saying "if you can't beat them, join them" applies here. Bernanke is wrong, but I'm joining him to get some of the free money he's giving away. My money flow indicator is saying that stocks will not top 'til end of July. The momentum will slow down in early May though, so now 'til early May will be easy money made in SPY. Those that disagree with me can tell me "told you so" if I'm wrong. Let's see how it plays out, I can't wait.

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  8. Gary, excellent analysis. I did a post on some trades I am in and will take this week. Enjoy.

    http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/03/long-trade-ideas-for-week-ahead.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. Gary,

    why are you underestimating Bernanke - do you know at 11 he won the South Carolina spelling contest.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Too bad. I was a fan of Tiho until he began acting like a school kid with hurt feelings. People can criticize anyone's market analysis on the grounds the person is not always right. No one will be perfect. But the bottom line is that Gary has traded damn well. The fact that he's waiting for the proper signal within his system before taking his next stance does not mean he's waffling. he's just controlling risk. So Tiho quit whining like a little girl.

    That said, Gary does tend to be a bit harsh on dissenting opinions. Gary, unless someone attacks your specific analysis just let it go. It's not worth your time or energy to address all these posts. People think differently, and that's exactly how money is made by those who get it right, which most of the time is you.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Absolutely 100% right on the money Gary.

    Anyone 'cruising blogs' - lookin for trade ideas etc....you are currently getting killed or are a college student/21 n under.

    This is it in a nutshell - no better take on it.

    I pop in her enow and again in that.....Im a currency trader only - and see all of this reflected (without as much POMO crap/manipulation) in global currency movement.

    Dollar gonna fly.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I always like it on this blog when someone says something is simple. Iknow I can quit reading.

    ReplyDelete
  13. My system will go to a buy at 1670, just a couple bucks away.It has had 2 losses in a row(not including the add on buys which are not part of my official statistics)and the most losses in a row have been only 2 in over 11 years.If it goes to a buy here it will probably either head down to the final bottom before the stop is initiated, or just keep going up as the stats/odds say this trade should be a winner.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. V,
      Just curious, how did you system test during the consolidation period in 06/07? The reason I ask is because I think we are probably in a similar environment.

      Delete
  14. From July 2006 till Oct 2007 the profit curve was essentially sideways. The win/losses are in this order starting from July 2006:win,loss,loss,win,loss,win,win,loss,loss,win,win, and then another win as gold broke out in Oct 2007.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Dan - no actually its not. That is the reality. Here are the links from the "real time analysis", as Gary calls it, dating back to say October when risk assets started to rally one by one:

    1.) Buying Agriculture in middle of December.

    2.) Buying Silver in late December.

    3.) Buying Swiss Franc in middle of January.

    4.) Middle Jan top in US Dollar - I also wrote about the intermediate Dollar reversal for all other currencies including the Euro during the week it occurred, back in middle of January. These two links show my analysis and thinking process in real time - Part I & Part I and Part II, with Part II on October 04th, the day of the bottom.

    6.) Afterwards, while following the money flow in the stock market, which showed extreme outflows, I expected even further rallying back in middle of December as some many retail investors and bloggers held disbelief in the rally due to EU crisis.

    6.) Bonds topping in November - I also put forward an article in late November which showed that deflation trade was the consensus outlook and that Treasuries should not go higher from those levels.

    7.) Shorting PMs crash in September - I also shorted Gold at $1910 and closed my short at $1600 in real time as Gary would say. This is when I opened my puts and this is where I closed it.

    So first of all if I am wrong on my currency and PMs calls above, which I bought between December and January, the good thing about it is that I am already in decent profit. Therefore, I will not suffer any drawdown. I can let things correct all the way back to my entry point and just break even. That way I do not risk my capital and instead protect it.

    So, by no means do I mean to brag about shit with this post. It is a bit lame to be honest, but you asked... so I answered.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Tiho,

    Keep up the posts. Right or wrong. With Gary or against it, I appreciate other opinions. Time will tell if your analysis can hold it's own. I remember other users with dissenting analysis to Gary getting hammered when they first posted but now they are considered pausible.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I think if I were to pick a direction for the USD it would be higher simply because of signals elsewhere.

    A look at three of the worlds' largest miners, with emphasis on BHP the #1 diversified miner, along with RIO and FCX show a very similar picture on their weekly and monthly charts. Bearish patterns and indicators are predominant across all three and an accelerating breakdown in price lies just ahead.
    This worrying sign for the immediate economic health of the global economy would see risk off assets sold and USD rise. The AUD the currency proxy for commodities, recently made new highs against the USD but is now showing clear signs of negative divergence in it's charts. There has been a very strong correlation between the SPX and AUD for several years with the AUD running slightly ahead of the SPX.
    All in all it appears to me that Ben haassailed as the global debt burden is overwhelming any attempts to stave off a deflationary collapse. That in it's self is USD positive. Time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can think of more than a few factors that would refute a stronger USD.

      Delete
    2. I agree with Liquid Motion. Those technical indicators are subjective. They do not look bearish to me.

      Either way Euro Dollar is now at decision point, so soon enough we will have an answer - chart here.

      I really do hope Dollar does spike and that Precious Metals do fall one more time, with the Gold's Trend Line breaking down. That way all of us PMs bulls could buy more during a panic.

      There is only disagreement on the short to media term movements, not in the long term and secular frame of views.

      Delete
  18. Scenario number 2 coming to fruition!

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  19. A little early. Need a break of 78.10

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  20. I wish I would just trust my gut....was hesitant pulling the trigger on Thursday. Oh well, $1900 Gold on the way by mid May or so

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  21. Hmm I doubt it. The dollar is moving into the timing band for a cycle low. The odds are gold won't be able to move above $1793 before rolling over into one more leg down.

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  22. Both scenarios call for a lower dollar and higher gold initially.

    We know nothing until we see if the dollar's February low holds or not. Until then, nothing is coming to fruition.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I do remember posting Gold will hit $1640 before it makes new highs about a month back and had myself torn a new hole

    ReplyDelete
  24. I am wondering if Slumdog is out of his position...I guess that he made 1%-2%, not bad on S&P

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  25. I'm factoring in that it's early in the intermediate cycle and we already have one left translated daily cycle. So it would seem most likely that when the dollar bottoms that gold will have one more leg down into the normal timing band for an ICL.

    ReplyDelete
  26. wow, this is the first time in a month that this comment didn't trigger a question like " show me that you are human not robot"...Thanks Guvir!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Nice black candles on the HUI and many individual miners. Have I mentioned that I hate black candles?

    Maybe TPTB are trying to close the gap before letting them run today? That is nothing more than hope on my part, so I wouldn't bank on it.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Seems I must be an idiot. You see I had some expert telling me that based upon a decade of S&P500 P/E data that the market is currently undervalued.
    And to think that when I go back and check over one century of data,besides the fact that the last decade was by far the most overvalued, at a current P/E of just under 24 the S&P has only been more expensive two other times in history.

    Geez I'm stupid!

    ReplyDelete
  29. GDX:GLD is putting a black candle today too. This sector just plain sucks!!!! 2008 lows for GDX:GLD look like destiny. This turd of a sector wouldn't rally if the Fed announced it was sending everyone in America a check for a billion dollars.

    ReplyDelete
  30. My god if GDX closes with a white candle today it will be ultrabullish.

    Also, notice how the 20, 50 and 200 dmas have converged for SLW and AXU (two of the miners I currently own). That is a nice signal that a proper base is there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not unusual for GDX to print a hesitation candle right before a rally begins.

      Delete
    2. 99% of the time a black candle means the rally will eventually retrace all the way back below the close of the black candle. Yes we can get a hefty rally, but I would be weary the whole way up. Would like to see a small red candle tomorrow if in fact we close with a black candle today.

      The HUI daily chart and black candles don't have a good history.

      Delete
    3. Quite the contrary. If a black candle forms after a strong rally that's typically a sign of exhaustion. But one that forms at the bottom of a sell off is usually a sign of hesitation from nervous gold bugs. It's often followed by a strong up day that leaves the nervous nellies behind.

      Check out the black candles in Aug., Oct., Nov., & Dec.

      Delete
    4. I think you misunderstood me. All of those rallys eventually failed and lead to lower lows.

      Delete
    5. Well yes I do expect this rally to fail also because it's still early in the Intermediate cycle and because we still have an ICL low ahead of us for the stock market. But we can still get a nice rally for a week or two before starting down again.

      Delete
    6. Agreed, and in that respect it fits in nicely with your ST call.

      Delete
  31. might get a pullback here in Gold bouncing off 10dma for a few days but the bottom is in my friends, these levels will never be seen again

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  32. Looks like Bernank just confirmed the future of gold (as if anyone needed more proof) . . . . UP! . . . Don't know what that does to your cycles, but I wouldn't wait too long here.

    ReplyDelete
  33. We're already in, but I wouldn't get too excited. The dollar is due to put in a cycle bottom probably sometime this week or early next and gold has shown no ability to fight a rising dollar for months now. Plus its still too early for an intermediate degree bottom. The odds are this will be another fakeout, but I have no problem making some money on it I just want to be prepared to exit as soon as it appears to have topped.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have to say, notwithstanding today's action in the HUI (which if it fails to close higher than the open is less than bullish, IMO, in terms of this level marking the lows) and the cycle count, AXU's chart to me looks very bullish with those perfectly converged MAs and the fact that we peirced right through them today. Hopefully we can close well above all the MAs. The weekly chart looks really good as well.

      Delete
    2. I'm a PM bull, but the risk is that Gold is acting bearish after 11 annual years of gains. It also might want to take out its uptrend line that has been support since October 08 lows.

      Delete
  34. For those that are "in" . . . What do you trade? GLD?

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  35. The DSI trade I took in the SnP has stopped out at a minor loss.

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  36. Absolutely demoralizing day in the miners today. Gold and silver and the stock market up big and the miners are acting extremely weak on a relative basis.

    These days are worse than the selloffs, IMO. What a POS sector.

    ReplyDelete
  37. No need to feel disappointed in the large cap miners. As I pointed out many times, they have been in a bear market for years, against gold. And in Toronto, where most of them have their main listing, the downtrend has gone on also for years. They are no longer a play on gold, and have not been for a long time. Maybe they will be again. But, telling yourself that GDX is a way to play gold won't make it so. Only GDXJ and selected names offer some prospect for further leverage, to gold. This all has to do with the same finding, exploration, and energy costs that plague other extractive industries. Best, G

    ReplyDelete
  38. remember how a 'mania' phase starts....when everyone has completely written it off

    ReplyDelete
  39. The gold miners had their opportunity to enter a mania phase in 2009/2010. Had they done so, this would have been roughly analogous to Nasdaq post the 1997/1998 global financial crises in Asia and Emerging Markets (LTCM, too). I really thought HUI would likely enter the mania phase. It didn't, and that's where we are today. Mania phases generally start after years of strong gains, and then a brutal correction. That HUI recovered from its deep 2008 hole to simply regain its previous levels is hardly, hardly, hardly an example of a mania phase, or proof that HUI is a play on Gold. HUI should have gone to 1000. Anyway, I doubt very much HUI will ever enter a mania phase. After all, owning gold stocks during this particular type of gold bull market really has nothing to do with the current set of reasons why the world is moving towards gold. Best, G

    ReplyDelete
  40. I can certainly understand the frustration with miners but I have no doubt that they will eventually have their day in the sun when we get to the final bubble phase. Last fall wasn't even vaguely close to the bubble phase. Wait till gold rises 200-300% in a year.

    At this point we're just trying to catch a short term trade.

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  41. That's why I'm not playing PMs or miners 'til C wave. SPX long is a lot easier. Lot of people are so bearish on SPX, the fact that it barely pulled back last week, tells me that it's a freight train, don't stand in front of it, get on board instead.

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  42. Question,

    What happens if all the QE and so on works? What if the measures taken by the Fed help to improve the economy to the point where the recovery becomes sustainable? If that happens, the dollar will appreciate as the United States investment prospects are stronger than many other developed nations.

    While money will flow out of US bonds, they won't crash because as yields rise the dollar rises; treasuries will still be an attractive currency investment for many non-US investors (though admittedly less attractive for domestic investors).

    The big loser in this scenario would be gold.

    Do you think the Fed will completely fail at its task and usher in financial dark ages or do you think through legislation, financial alchemy, etc. we will get thru it like we always have? Personally, I find this the more likely scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Fed is just buying time until economy comes back to life. Democrats seem to let the economy fend for itself. Dems seem to like slow growth just fine. Not sure there is a political solution with Republicans promises or Tea Party political reality.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Adam - That's wishful thinking. Look what happened to Greece, Spain & Italy (with their out of control debt - by overprinting money).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Quy,
      The dynamics are completely different with numerous countries all under the same currency. Countries start to really run into trouble when they're forced to borrow in foreign dollars. That's obviously not the case in the US.

      Delete
  45. Same basic problem, out of control debt. Fed can hold off the inevitable for now, but eventually gold will be the only thing people will trust.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In late 40s the Debt/GDP was at a similar level. I think we managed to get by OK.

      I'm not trying to go blow by blow with anyone, but I think another point of view that doesn't have such a dire outcome should be examined. The intermarket implications from another scenario like the one I briefly outlined above can change our entire investment strategy.

      Snagging a 2% move over the course of 3 days on GDX bounce time and time again doesn't really seem like a long-term strategy to me.

      Delete
    2. I would point out that the reason we were able to emerge from the depression in the 40's was because of the invention of electronics and plastics during the war. Those two new industries led to a huge surge in productivity that allowed us to repay our debt.

      We would need something similar to happen now to get the same result. I don't really see anything on the horizon so I expect we are going to have a different outcome this time.

      Delete
    3. Gary,

      With all due respect, just because we cannot point to it at the moment doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

      Maybe it will be the growth in social media? :o) haha i kid

      Delete
    4. It's always been my opinion that it would come out of the biotech sector. Biotech has been performing very well lately...

      Delete
    5. Major differences between now and the post war era in the 40s. There was very little consumer debt back then and private consumption filled part of the consumption gap after the falloff of government wartime spending. Not happening this time around if we experience a fiscal cliff in 2013 as expected.
      More importantly, however, was the fact that much of the world's manufacturing capacity outside of the US had been destroyed during the war, so the US had very little competition for our products abroad. US companies benefitted from the huge post-war demand and from the fact that they were the only game in town. On top of that, we implemented the Marshall Plan which simply provided the financing for destroyed European countries to buy our products. It was effectively nothing more than vendor financing on a grand scale which allowed US businesses to sell their products.

      Delete
    6. You assume things need to be the same as before for a recovery. Manufacturing may not be the necessary ingredient as "the new thing" comes online. Having plenty of manufacturing jobs looks silly if the biotech comes up with the cure for cancer or something of the like. That would mean high-paying jobs for employees in a country that has a structural competitive advantage in that field.

      Again, the point isn't to explain why this will or will not happen by going blow-by-blow with strangers on the blog. The point is to get everyone's collective views a little more elastic so we can think outside the box.

      Delete
    7. Adam,
      I wasn't suggesting that a new manufacturing renaissance is necessary for a recovery. Simply highlighting the conditions and structural tailwinds which played a major role in the post-war boom which enabled us to shrink our debt/gdp.

      Delete
  46. "Democrats seem to let the economy fend for itself." LMAO!

    [img]http://bestsmileys.com/lol/1.gif[/img]

    ReplyDelete
  47. 3D printers are changing everything in rapid prototyping. Soon to be used for production IN THE US and also eventually in the home - print out that part you need to fix the blender. Going to be bigger than biotech, and I love biotech (see ARNA today). SSYS DDD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have a friend that owes one of these. Do realize how expensive these are, and how weak the 'printed' objects are? And how utterly useless most people are in repairing something at home even if the part is in their hand? For even a sophisticated user like me, there is simply no use for one of those.

      Just saying... ain't gonna happen like you are saying at all.

      Delete
    2. I was involved peripherally with 3DP as far back as 1990. Today there are different types of 3D printing. The most noteworthy is the technology spearheaded by EOS Gmbh in Germany that uses laser sintering. This is, however, unlikely to appear in the home setting. The most ambitious projects include manufacturing large aerospace structures using this technology.

      Overall, I don't think 3DP is a disruptive innovation. I think it will incrementally improve manufacturing in certain niche areas like aerospace where net-shaping leads to large cost savings. And its already established for rapid prototyping. There are easier ways to net shape things for other industries.

      Delete
  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  49. TZA



    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  50. Gary, what is the longest stretch of IC cycle that you have seen?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Coming out of the 06 yearly cycle low Bernanke crushed the dollar and it generated a 39 week IC. If the dollar were to drop below the Feb. 29th bottom we could see something similar.

      Delete
    2. Vow!

      Thanks for your encyclopedic knowledge of cycles

      Delete
  51. The bump in gold today was a spike move caused by bernanke's comments. Futures options expire tomorrow and then the contract rolls over over and goes into delivery approx 28/29. The april upcoming month for gold is a large open interest month.

    Suffice to say the guys in charge do NOT want gold up during this period. They must keep it flat from here and ideally push it back down to reverse the action of today.

    Usually they are successful. They get caught by buying surges like today every now and then, but they are patient and can usually get their way after the initial enthusiasm dies.

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  52. Don't get me wrong, I would like to see gold go higher and if it does then we are on track for the huge reverse H&S pattern.

    I'm not in currently although I have some ideas on a possible entry attempt.

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  53. Quy says the SnP is a freight train. The DSI, facing down, failed, so far, though there was a partial profit at the low range taken, it still amounted to a near break even as the market has risen through the stop point where risk of loss amplifies.

    This is posted to ratify Quy, if... The DSI is a power move. So, if it's rejected, which means the market won't go down, it will go up strongly. We have 3 scenarios: the DSI will fail completely; the DSI will double top here, with the top being the high of last Monday, and then drop strongly; or the market will take out the top and again be in a high probability move up like Quy calls getting on board the SnP train.

    I'll go long if the top of last Monday is taken out by more than 5 clicks. That will set up a 3X going up, 3 times last Monday and Tuesday's high and low spread.

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  55. Is anyone here going to short the Apple parabolic?

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    1. Why short a stock at 14x this September FY earnings, growing 20% to 30%+ a year? Wait for the parabola to break, then short the dead cat bounce - maybe.

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    2. Why not pick the top and short than instead? What does PE have to do with anything?

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  56. Out of SSO and GLD and into Aug $18 EUO calls for a dollar rally.

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  57. MARKETS



    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  58. Slumdog - My money flow indicator shows SPX will not top 'til late July. Momentum will slow in early May though. So now 'til early May will be easy money. SPX should make all time high by end of July (close to 1600).

    Tiho - I posted earlier where TZ though AAPL topped at $520, Doc at $530, yet it's now over $600. If this market plays out like I think, it'll kill all the shortsellers. I think this is all liquidity driven, free money from Bernanke, I know I'm going to try & get me some :-)

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  59. Hope you're all ready to back up the truck(if you haven't already), cause the time is about here.........

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  61. The spike up in gold monday has now been completely erased as I suggested it would be. The active gold contract is going through rollover and the guys in charge must make it look weak and dissuade people from taking delivery. They usually get their way.

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  62. I didn't profit from it. I'm sure not going to short a mkt like gold just because I think it might have some weakness for a week. But the movement downward during this rollover is common. (And, of course, could be blamed on other things like cycles or the general market or continuation of B or whatever.)

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  63. The SnP has again indicated to me a high probabily of descent. I've heard the arguments that Facebook is coming and thus the marketmakers will manipulate it upwards. And I've stated the market can move in 3 ways.

    The fact is that it again today declined below last Tuesday's low. The target on the DJIA is roughly 12900, down from 13150 close.

    I will short in the night session, and wait patiently. The market emotional trigger was pulled when the DSI pattern was formed last week. And I'll wait to see if it will spectacularly begin to decline.

    The protective stop is no more than 50 DJIA points to the upside.

    If this short fails by being stopped out, the chop IMO that will continue will eat both sides of the directional traders.

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  64. Tiho... you know the dollar rally thats a high 79 on the index... you know the one that is fluttering with 79... and 78 and 79.

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    1. What's it rallying against...just for my information ?

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    2. Ohhh that rally.... that's a super Dollar rally.

      Don't get get me wrong, maybe there will be a Dollar rally eventually and all of us can be wrong (with a stop to protect us of course).

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  65. Forgot how to go to comments page 2. Can anybody post how? TIA!

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  66. EMINI



    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  67. Let's make the call...$1875 gold by end april/beginning may

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  68. Although I don't spend much here as it seems everyone has moved over to another forum, I can see this blogs issues still have not been corrected. Main point being how iPhone unfriendly this site is.

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  69. i think most of the smart traders moved away as they were tired of gary's continued juvenile histrionics.

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  70. Tiho managed to chase everyone off....congrats

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  71. Mike, are you still bullish given today's action?

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    1. hmmmm Pm's and stocks making a comeback before close, you don't say

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  72. absolutely, I think the PM's are holding up pretty well considering the bleeding in stocks and dollar 'rally'...the PM's arent buying it, all this is is end of quarter rebalancing

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  73. Im actually furious at myself cause I knew we would get a bounce back off the 20dma and didnt take a position...oh well

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  74. MIKES,

    >Let's make the call...$1875 gold by end april/beginning may

    A massive reverse H&S pattern is still potentially in play and we are moving out of the rollover period when downward pressure to prevent contract delivery is expected.

    However gold is not yet showing very much strength by my various measures and I'm additionally cautioned by the cycles guys who think there is more time to a bottom. Going against them WITHOUT contrary reliable info isn't usually smart.

    There were 2 or 3 points this week where I normally would have bought for a bottom-catching attempt. I thought about them seriously but decided to pass because on a scale of 1-10 they might have been rated a 5 or 6. In retrospect, one would have broken even (stopped out) the other would have simply stopped out for a loss. So my call was right.

    If indeed we are going up from here to complete that H&S I suspect a) there will be more of an indication than what we have so far; b) there will be one or two entry points to jump in.

    Otherwise I'm sitting back until something looks a bit better than what we have seen so far. I still think there is a buying opportunity closer to 1600 (which I may or may not take). If that fails I think 1575 zone holding is very likely.

    So so far this is not holding

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    1. a) 250dma

      b) March 22 and today

      As I said last time when I said $1640 is on the way, 'we shall see'...

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    2. you think the massive support for almost 2 weeks now of Gold at the 250sma and 75sma for Silver is a coincidence?

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    3. I don't know. There are clearly more technical tools in the world besides two moving averages. Yes?
      If it was that simple everybody would be rich.

      I admit the recovery today was quite interesting and worthy of notice, but I'm still not sold yet and two moving averages isn't going to do it.

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    4. Agreed, guess we'll have to wait and see

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  78. Looks like Poly will get his swing low in the dollar today, with a close over 79.14, to mark a DCL on March 27. If it fades in the afternoon, I may exit EUO.

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  79. That's it for the dollar. It should break down next week & markets will rally strongly in April. Can't wait.

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  80. Slumdog - I hope you covered your SPX short. It'll grind higher throughout April, without much of a pullback, thus people will have to chase. Remember, I'm on your side. Your view got me to double check my analysis, so I appreciate your opposing view, and I'm sure you'll get on board soon since you did lay out 3 possible scenarios (mine being 1 of them).

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  81. I know the term "Manipulation" has been talked about on this blog numerous times.
    This article by Martenson covers it pretty well.
    His analysis covers the main victim but also provides excellent examples of others that have fallen too.

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/gold-manipulated-thats-okay/72892

    Reading between the lines ....
    1)Trading or investing in this environment implies YOU are betting against the artifical created markets in commodities, pm's, currencies, stocks, bonds.
    2)Ultimately Gold will be the beneficiary.

    enjoy the read...it really does confirm my beliefs.

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  82. Singapore Dollar looks like it wants to break out of its triangle. The Euro looks like it wants to break out of its triangle. The Pound is on its way to make a new high and is above the 200 day MA. The Dollar has not been able to achieve any gains against the Canadian Dollar or the Mexican Peso, nor has it had any strength against Nordic currencies like the Swedish Krona. These are negative developments for the Dollar so I'd say that we are not going to see any bottoms yet. We can go lower still...

    Dollar topped in January and its been obvious for those who follow it in "real time". If one looks at the Euro, than the Dollar is going to keep moving lower. Actually, as I've posted here for months now, broad breadth between Dollar and major 24 global currencies indicated long time before DXY index did, that the Dollar is going to be weak.

    I just cannot believe how much of a hope everyone still holds on the Dollar. They say downtrends slide on the slope of hope, but man do people have some serious hope on the Dollar making a new high. I think over the last three months Gary has constantly posted charts about Dollar new highs and Dollar spikes and asking if Bernanke can break the Dollar etc etc.

    I think it is the stock market that has created this view. A large upward move in stocks has created fear amongst investors who than wait for the correction. In other words, people forget about following the actual asset (in this case currencies), but instead start "assuming" Dollars next move based on other assets like S&P 500. First and foremost, follow a currency to see what currencies might do, than do cross asset corrections for confirmations.

    Relaying on corrections constantly plagued investors. When the stock market rally started in October, the reason majority call the rally a "dead cat bounce" into late December was because the Euro kept going lower and the Dollar kept going higher. No one believed in the stock market. Today the stock market rally looks ready to correct, so every assumes the Dollar will spike. But just as stocks went up and Euro went down - today we could have the opposite occur!

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  83. I forgot to add - I really do hope that the Dollar spikes, as stated before. That way we can all watch Precious Metals fall hard too and buy at cheaper prices in this secular bull. However, I do not think that there is an above average chance of that happening the way things look right now. It seems that Silver's crash in September 2011 was the selling climax of a bear market which started at $50 resistance and now we are forming a bottom, with a possible first HIGHER LOW in progress around $31/$32.

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  84. Quy, I'm covering my short in the night market SnP, now, at a small loss.
    The market is not moving in the direction I expected. I'm not as nimble as others. I'm out and on the sidelines, waiting. I expect chop, rather than a rising market. And I have no pattern probability after yesterday's rise.

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  86. I'm still hoping for a washout move down before my stop is triggered as it would allow me to get much longer near the lows with an add on buy.

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  87. I go to a lot of different blogs & it's amazing how cautious & bearish people are. Plus I see a lot of bullish stock setup patterns, along with bullish money flow & oscillator readings, this market can't help but go up. Last call to get on board or be prepared to pay a higher price !!!

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  88. Monthly Money Flow as of yesterday was 15.2 B NEGATIVE, block trades from the smart money.

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  89. matrix - that's not the money flow I'm looking at, I can't tell you what I'm looking at, but the grinding higher is starting in SPX today. It'll do about 5 points a day, by end of April, it should get to 1500. Let's see if it'll play out.

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  91. Fundamental analysis
    http://capital3x.com/think-tank/fundamental-analysis-week-30-march-2012/

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  92. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=15&id=p38897654495&a=241667269

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  94. I have a daily and 60 minute buy on AGQ, GLD, and AG, SLW, and XRA all hit buys on both time-frames late Friday. Double bottoms and higher lows. Unless we get a take-down overnight, we should see continued strength. China reports PMI this weekend. If it is at all interpreted positively, the dollar will fall hard, and risk assets will fly.

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  95. Interesting Silver analysis from Poly.
    http://www.bullbeartalk.com/forum/blogs/poly/62-silver-wave-5-coming-soon.html#

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  96. Gary,

    Your second scenario above is looking more plausible after this week's action.

    GG bottomed 3-20, ABX 3-29, NEM 3-29, GDX 3-29, GDXJ 3-29. Metals bottomed 3-22 and 3-23, ahead of miners, I know, but what has been usual in this sector of late?

    I've been left behind by stealth bottoms before, and don't wan't to repeat myself.

    There are smart posters on this board and this newbie, for one, would appreciate feedback. Thanks.

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  97. Heads Up, I'm w/you if you think that gold goes higher here, and USD lower, and Euro higher. Momentum on daily charts is what I'm looking at. Notice too how $SILVER made a higher swing high at Feb end (although $GOLD did not). Thus, silver looks stronger than gold to me.

    Gary, I still think that cycles may not work well w/so much currency manipulation. It's interesting watching though.

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  98. HeadsUp- I'm somewhat new here myself. I respect Tiho & BobLovesHawaii views. You probably haven't been reading their posts here (along with mine). Get ready for a ramp up in stocks & PMs. Dollar will sink starting next week.

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  99. Thanks, Quy. It was pointed out that Operation Twist ends, June 12. The Beard has been far more effective with this program than many anticipated.

    That said, though I held some commodities shares, I bailed, February 9.

    But the major indices are laggards, and top last.

    Gary's # 2 above may well play out. But does one wait around for 78.10? What do the posters think?

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  100. If I were you I would be getting in the sooner the better. Poly is right on the money as per MrSu's post above

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  101. It looks like Gary's belief is tht it will go up or down...

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  102. Thanks, MikeS. I looked at that post. But Poly sees silver trading down below 30 before an advance.

    I think silver bottomed March 23 but am cautious about putting my chips on the table. I seem to have been burned of late, and am trying to gather more analysis.

    The dollar may tip it's hat next week, the sooner the better.

    I appreciate the comments. Any more?

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  103. Maybe Gary will chime in on what is the prudent move, sharpnquickly. This commentary was written a week ago, I see.

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  104. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p99676724238&a=243271879

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  105. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=15&id=p41229089927&a=243270808

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  106. Headsup - The question is do you want to place your bet before the move or after the move. Gary's cycle is a surer bet since it's after the confirmation of the move. That's 1 drawback of cycle analysis, is you'll chase after the move. I try to use other indicators so I can place my bet before the initial move, since that's the easiest money making part (since I play options). I'm so sure of my analysis, that I'm loaded up with SPX calls. I think PMs will move up too, but SPX is an easier play for me, since it doesn't zig zag like PMs. I'll say it again, I think April will be a strong month, the momentum will weaken in early May (my money flow & oscillator indicators show me that). I started using these indicators 2 plays ago & they both proved right. I'm going for 3.

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  107. Thanks, Quy. There are not many posts this weekend. Gary may post again as this commentary was written, March 24.

    We may have 1600 by June 12, Quy: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XSNhgwhOs70/T3YTM3ptgTI/AAAAAAAAVMM/J2MROmyH4B4/s1600/MI-fed-stimulus-program-ending.gif

    After the "Twist" would be the logical time for a downturn.

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  108. sharpnquickly - that is why we love Gary's ability to always be right!

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  109. Headsup - My indicators show after a strong April (taking SPX to around 1500), a 5% pullback will start in early May, but then SPX will resume and make all time high around 1600 by end of July. Let's see if it'll play out that way.
    Yeah, traffic on this blog has gone way down, people have gone elsewhere.

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  110. Quy - would appreciate to stay in touch with you. Either here - or if you stop posting here - maybe at Tiho's blog or at my thread at kitco. Though i do not post much, just when I have something to say. From my few posts here you should know that I'm pretty much in your's and Tiho's camp.

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  111. I keep hearing about Poly's blog. Can anyone who has read him comment on what he offers? I find Gary's service useful for trade signals and Doc's letter great for detailed cycle analysis. I'm curious to know if Poly offer something different that could form a "trifecta" of cycle letters.

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  112. AGoldhamster - You got it. I've been helped by a few smart people, and just want to see if I can help others. Although I can't reveal the details of the indicators I look at, I'll try to post when I see changes. I try to stay on this blog since WW left, who I thought was a very smart & knowledgeable guy. I'm glad I could be of some value here. Let's get ready to "rock n roll" in April.

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  113. Chinese PMI number confirming the positive outlook for April.
    Yen crosses rallying and signalling risk on.

    Suggest also to have a closer look at all those triangles and/or flags out there. The most beautiful in EURUSD - which after resistance is broken - should fly to 1.35 within very short timeframe.

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    1. The other side of the story;

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/schr%C3%B6dinger-goes-shanghai-finds-economy-both-alive-and-dead

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  114. slw_fiend,
    You can read and post on Poly's public blog (the Forum) without paying for his service, and most of the really good traders who used to post here are now over there. Poly comments often, and that may give you an indicator as to whether adding his service would give you the "trifecta" or not. Like you, I subscribe to Gary and Doc, but I have not yet subscribed to Poly. Another site I like, which is free, is http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/ Poly's website is called BullBearTalk, and I use it just to cross-reference what different traders are thinking.

    Quy, I have been very impressed with your input here. You have indeed picked up a lot of the slack. I followed you on your SPY recommendations with a position in SSO.

    Gary is at a weightlifting competition this weekend and should get back to Las Vegas later this evening.
    He left on Thursday, so that's probably why he hasn't posted here lately.

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  115. I don't really have an opinion one way or the other as to which way the dollar is going to break. It's getting very late in the daily cycle so even if it were to break the Feb low it would probably only be marginally followed by a counter trend bounce before continuing lower.

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  116. ckpc - Thanks bud. If you thank me now, you'll really thank me end of April if my scenario plays out. Let's make some money.

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  117. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77221516540&a=252241785

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  118. Danno - what is up with all those circles and lines and what is a megaphone by the way? Is that like a mega cell phone? If you keep things simple, you should just buy some Gold Miners on Monday. Everyone hates them, while the breadth is extremely oversold. Most likely we have a false break below $50, which will end up being a bear trap.

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  119. Tiho - I must admit your put timing on AAPL is impressive. I don't think it'll crash like you mentioned, but a handsome profit nevertheless. You da man !

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  120. "I don't really have an opinion one way or the other as to which way the dollar is going to break."

    We are in April now, so that is edging onto three months since the Dollar has topped and yet you still do not have an opinion? That is awfully late, but you'd argue you are being safe and applying risk management. Fair enough.

    To some of us who can see, there are plenty of clues around that the Dollar will not stage any major rallies and the top in January is real. While majority look at stocks in regards to correlation with the Dollar - than get scared when they think S&P 500 will flash crash), we should all know that stocks correlate more with bonds, while commodities correlate with the Dollar.

    Take a look at the Continuous Commodity Index. It is much better than the CRB Index, as it is an equal weighting of all major grains, softs, energy and metals. I've argued for a long time that the bottom was in middle of December. Since Agriculture has the biggest weighting, on the day of the bottom I purchased Agriculture through RJA ETF.

    Commodities have been correcting in the month of March, be it energy, agriculture or metals. But we have no new lows in the CRB or the CCI. I think the bottom in middle of December was THE LOW of the cyclical bear market, and no we are constructing a first HIGHER LOW and the uptrend is starting. At the same time the Dollar has put in a first LOWER HIGH and the downtrend is starting.

    We had an impressive reversal on Friday in all grains, which should ensure a proper bottom and a follow up rally in this sector. Wheat looks to be breaking its 200 day MA. One of the major surprises for 2012, in my opinion, was how much Wheat was hated and therefore how far up it will go and surprise everyone.

    All commodities, not just PMs, are now ending they cyclical bear market with a first higher low after they peak about 12 months ago between February 2011 and May 2011. Commodities should resume their secular bull market trend and the current price is now providing a great opportunity for an entry point.

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    1. You da man Tiho.. great articles btw.

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  122. China: For agriculture, the VAT refund of 12% is dropping to 1%, internally.

    The international undercutting of prices due to the 12% additional (refund/whatever you want to call it, it's straight to the bottomline) will stop in its tracks.

    I'm not sure as my expert source is in ag whether this is applicable to all manufacturing as well. If so, world prices will rise by the removal of the China Govt support.

    Financial Impact? I don't know. I just know what I know from the guys who really do know.

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  123. For those who want to read about stock market breadth, the risks of a correction approaching or even starting in cyclical sectors and Gold's sentiment, put / call ratios and ETF fund flows - click here. Those who are either holding or buying Gold Miners might find this article very useful too.

    Good luck investing / trading and stay cautious... as stocks are showing signs of weakness now. Nevertheless, Aril tends to have good seasonality and tops are a process, not an event. Sell in May and go away might be extra important this year. Gold's seasonality also tends to be quite weak until August as well, so keep that mind!

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  124. At critical juncture here for the USD

    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/2012/04/sunday-1-april-2012.html?m=1

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  125. Tiho,

    If you were going to play one of the etf's now for commoditites which one would you pick

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  127. WW actually said that he left cause it was so hard for him to post on this new blog. When he left, a lot of people went with him. I can understand why. He's a smart guy.

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  129. Replies
    1. http://www.bullbeartalk.com

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    2. He said he's busy, won't be posting much, saying that yesterday, and he's not been seen today.

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  130. Quy - yes I think 139xx and gold and silver much higher are a given this month.
    Will be interesting to watch all the dollar bulls dying.

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  131. With AGH here, I'm like a Pointer, I'm all eyes and ears. AGH is the most successful trader I've seen, period, bar none, when he's attentive as he had work to do for months and has been sorely missed. Thx for posting AGH.

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  132. QuyApr 2, 2012 07:23 AM

    WW actually said that he left cause it was so hard for him to post on this new blog. When he left, a lot of people went with him. I can understand why. He's a smart guy.

    IMO, Gary permitted a lot of nonsense talk by novices, exchanging recipies. I've been guilty of a few of those posts, very few. That chatter was painful. It's subsided. This is a biz site for ideas.

    Moreover, I'm here for Gary's ideas and serious discussion on them. I rarely look at the private blog as I need the ideas of everyone, and the private blog is filled with way too many yes men for me.

    I'll be here for the duration. Thx to each of you who are now posting.

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    1. I think most people moved to the other chat forum to exchange trading ideas due to the unexpected "SHUT DOWN" of this pub blog site. I am sure many still monitor or post here as I do with the HOPE that the PUB site trolls stay away and Sub questions can get answered and hopefully the SUB site returns to SUB trade topics only.

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    2. What is the link to the other chat forum to exchange trading ideas ??

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  133. I hope some of you have been in or at least taken notice of the rare earths, in particular MCP, REE, and AVL. Thoughts anyone? Looks to me like there is plenty more to their run.

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  134. WW got about of Gold t $1680

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  135. He said: "Out of my gold at $1680...would like to see how gold contends with the 200dma if tested today or tomorrow. Highly doubt it will be today."

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  136. What is the link to the other chat forum to exchange trading ideas ??

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