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Friday, March 2, 2012

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the website. And I am turning the comments section back on.

106 comments:

  1. Comments back on - good move, Gary.

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  2. My EUO is up 1.36% in the pre-market vs. +0.64% for UUP.

    I'm just sayin'

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Has anyone heard from WW today or yesterday?

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  5. WW might be getting his morning sponge bath from bertha.

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  6. Can I make a suggestion? If Tiho starts up again just ignore him, delete his posts, whatever

    The rest of us are here to learn

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  7. Hi all,
    I still can't take my mind off the Feb 29 tank in gold. I know Gary is warning us that more days like this will come.

    Do you guys believe that it is all manipulated? Sometimes I think articles at KWN is kind of "out there".

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/2_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_US_Entity_Interferes_in_Gold_Market.html

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  9. So, does anyone else think we breach the December lows in gold?

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  10. James, I assume you survived your silver short. I hope you covered early; I can't imagine anyone being able to hang on until yesterday's substantial bounce, what with Wednesday being such a slaughter.

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  11. intell,

    I do not think for a second the crash was manipulated. I think if it was, then it would have been short-lived and gold and all the other metals and stocks would have recovered the next day !


    James

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  12. James

    Salad over at smart volume dot com has an interesting story about the leap day collapse.

    Here is his view on how the take down went.

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  13. I think I am seeing a "falling fruit" pattern, first proposed by WW, in Gold now. Well. I don't remember if that's the right name for it, but I think I kind of grabbed the pattern. Anyway, I bought 5 GLD weekly puts expiring next Friday at $1.03 to protect my Gold holdings. If nothing happens on Monday/Tuesday, then I'll sell those puts with a loss then.

    Yes. I know I might lose money in this trade.

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  14. I mean GLD weekly $165 puts.

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  15. Gary thanks for turning comments back on --- I've been wondering about how WW made out --- can't wait to hear

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  16. Since gold had trouble sniffing 1800, traders across the board decided to get out of Dodge.

    Obviously stops were taken out along the way and triggered a cascade of selling.

    No conspiracy

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  17. James - who dumps 10k contracts without regard for fill price?

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  18. Boston Irish-
    WW made it through surgery, recovering with heavy pain meds.
    He popped up on Gary's sub blog
    to say he was ok, but begged for this site to open back up. Have not heard from him since. I just assume he is recuperating now, having hit the brick wall, even WW, can't get over having to recuperate first.

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  19. Big Money,

    It's called the free market.

    If someone wants to dump 10k then so be it.

    Who really knows why? Maybe he needed the cash for whatever.

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  20. at ease --- thank you --- sounds about as good as possible

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  21. I think AAPL has run out of buyers!

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  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  24. no checkbox to email comment updates. where did it go?

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  25. I'm not sure what happened to blogger. They changed the comment format and I can't figure out anyway to get it back to the old style.

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  26. MARKETS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  27. Just woke from slumber, been rough couple days, gonna be a rough couple weeks now that Im home and dont have a nice comfortable hospital air bed. Im happy to see the blog has been restored, this place is not something you just pull the plug on. Alot changed when I left, gold bled, blog shut down...i felt like i got kicked out of my house. Thank you everyone for your continued well wishes, love you guys, i'll be back...hold down the fort fellas, let us get prepared for what will probably turn out to be the last and greatest buying oppurtunity of many of our lives.


    Gary,

    Thank you ;)

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  28. WW - Always good to hear from you. We're all holding the thought of a speedy recovery.
    I'd say this is the "next" (not the last), "big" (not the greatest) investment opportunity of our lives. Get gold right, and then be amazed at all the investment opportunities you have after that because you have the gold to fund them. The next 20 years are going to be great.

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  29. WW,

    Good to see you're up. Just take'er easy for a bit and (I swear this is a copy and paste)....

    re·cu·per·ate/riˈko͞opəˌrāt/
    Verb:
    Recover from illness or exertion.
    Recover or regain (something lost or taken): "they will recuperate the returns that go with investment".

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  30. FarmGirl,

    Thank you my friend, always great to hear from you, I dont like when you disappear for too long. Reason I say "last and greatest" is that I think we may very well be about to see gold put in a final B-wave bottom and leave that number behind for quite some time as it moves into its final C-wave before the mania phase, which will most likely be followed by a very long consolidation phase. I believe gold is even going to become untradable in the not to distant future. Although there certainly will be many other "big" investment opportunities ahead, Im not so sure many of us will be around for one as great as gold mania when it is upon us. Look foward to us all riding high together. Dont think for one second your amazing call on the effects LTRO would have on the market cycle went unnoticed, I was actually aggravated that you took off the NUGT early...your contributions are invaluable, so tell the chickens they have to share you ok!

    Back to bed for me.

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  31. Rob,

    Im hearing you, I have no choice but to rest up, im beatup right now...thanks my man. Have a good weekend.

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  32. WW:

    Only thing better than comments being back on is seeing you here alive and kicking. Wish you a speedy recovery!

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  33. W2,

    Happy to hear from you! Take care of yourself and see you in couple of weeks!

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  34. WW - Needless to say, one thing that's greater than our next gold buying opportunity, it's having you back bro !

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  35. like a lot who mainly just read and occasionally say hi -
    Glad your back and ready to ride the big C

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  36. WW you're a good man, dont't trade until feeling good or at least fair. Got a feeling you live with pain day to day anyway. Hope you can sleep.

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  37. I am positioned this week with DUST, EDC puts, and UVXY. Been stopped out of most longs (profitably).

    Energy and silver stills looks like there are major upside opportunities once we get through this dollar move higher.

    I put up a new post

    http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com

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  38. From reading the vast opinions (most expect SPX to pull back here w/ dollar rising), I'm starting to think SPX may have 1 more push above 1400 (along w/ Dow 13,000 & Nasdaq 3000) to trap everybody, then a pullback (may be only a 5% pullback since there's too much liquidity). That means silver/gold may have another push up (may be not above last week's high) then will also pull back. Strong markets tend to have a mini blowoff within a week before pulling back (like SPX did in 11/2010). I'll trade that way. Hero or zero time.

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  39. Safer to sit on the sidelines than try to catch every last penny of the rally.

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  40. Gary - What can I say, I'm a penny pincher :) All kidding aside, if I had a lot of capital, I'd sit out, but I'm trying to get my capital up enough where I can follow your wiser advice, but for now I have to take the risks. For me, sitting out or having no money, is pretty much the same :)

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  41. Taking low probability trades with leverage isn't the way to get ones capital up. It's the way to have to start over. Patience and waiting for the right trade is the way to make big gains. Right now the only high probability trade is in the dollar index.

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  42. There is no option to follow this blog thread any more. Oh well, that should cut down on traffic.

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  43. Veronica,
    Are you showing any current new signals for gold? If not, what was your previous last signal?
    Thanks

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  44. so did TZ and Poly get taken to the woodshed ???

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  45. any bad ass bulls on gold please think twice on leveraging up because at any given notice the bear will take you out!

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  46. any bad ass bulls on gold please think twice on leveraging up because at any given notice the bear will take you out!

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  47. Was up pretty large at 6x-7x, but got stopped out on gold and then immediately sold silver (before it gapped down). Broke even. Right back to where I was 2 weeks ago before this all started.

    As gold kept dropping that same day I made a bottom call and tried to catch a low. It didn't hold and I actually got stuck in a gap down at 1700 with much higher slippage than expected. My typical 1% loss expectation turned into three.

    So all in all I broke even wed and they made a trade that lost 3%. Not much worse for the wear. The battle continues.

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  48. James R

    According to time stamps on twitter posts, Gary and Poly exited within minutes of each other. Not sure about TZ but i would expect him to use tight stops.

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  49. GARY,

    We can't delete comments now either.

    Can't you have Gurvir 'reset' this blog and use a new, fresh template picked from the blogger list to clear out whatever is wrong with this old code?

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  50. OR, create a new separate 'test' blog. Use a standard, current blogger template. Tweak as needed, then copy/paste it into the template for this blog.

    Reset things. I've seen blogger blogs where things work. I suspect this one is so hacked up over the years (and from you doing it before you had a tech guy) that you need to refresh the code.

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  51. I didn't expect the selloff, like most (which is when they hit you the hardest) and was actually napping at the time.

    In hindsight, of course, there were signs (always are) and I made a few notes and came up with a few ideas to help take profits or tighten things up next time.

    Since the silver peak where I made most month last year I have had large gains of a few weeks and then given them back three times. I think it is indicative of a whipsaw market (although clearly wed was pretty wild).

    I did a 'what if' scenario on what if I had tightened stops optimally and been more on the ball that day and I MIGHT have saved a 3% gain (instead of stopping out even).

    The additional trade to catch a bottom should have only lost 1.5% max, but the volatility was exceptional and that's just how it goes.

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  52. ...silver...where I made most MONEY last year...

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  53. I disagree with gary that we are going to have a long draw out B/C before moving higher.

    I think wed was a hit (but they do these things when the mkt is vulnerable so there are always non-manip explanations that help it along), but I think the world printing situation and recognition of gold's role is getting too much momentum.

    Just like in 1979 (or 98/99 tech stocks) there was a point when the selloffs didn't hold and it became a buying free for all.

    I think metals are near that point and I'm alert for a near buying point to get back in.

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  54. >Not sure about TZ but i would expect him to use tight stops.

    I got a little sloppy. Didn't know bernake was talking. Was (too) confident we were going up and was tired from having managed the position the previous days so I was napping off hours.

    It's disappointing to lose the gains and I will try to avoid it in the future, but it does happen.

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  55. My thoughts on GLD.

    http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/03/gld-possible-paths.html

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  56. TZ

    Well I'm glad u didn't get hurt too bad. I was leary on gold cause it couldn't tag 1800 while silver was taking off.

    I would have liked to see WW real time posts during the leap day collapse.

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  57. If I remember correctly WW posted that he was expecting a test of $1900 just like everyone else.

    Sometimes the market just hands us a surprise that there's no way to anticipate.

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  58. TZ

    I am able to delete my comments.

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  59. Would that be a definition of an A wave? Testing the c-wave top or a good percentage of it?

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  60. Last three days in the SnP are a clear dynamite triangle.
    Probability in a direction that Gary's expects is down is a 3x drop from here, x being the length of the first bar, about 50 pts

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  61. Slumdog

    And I can't wait to see everybody running for the exits on AAPL.

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  62. WW, best wishes on your recovery. JHNewman, I think you are busy, but I would like to hear from you about Gold, etc. when you feel like it.

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  63. Our we back on with following comments?

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  64. I ready to give up on this side.

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  65. Gary,
    It looks like I can only see these comments when I use the mobile version when I use the web version I can't see any of these comments.

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  66. Test, checking if blogger is working....

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  67. WW, didn't get to wish you good luck prior to your OP but it looks like things went well. very glad for that. get well soon pal.

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  68. Tz I was awake and watching Benny and saw ticker gold at bottom of Tv down to 1760 and by time got my sell order in I was out around 1755. All I could do was laugh and remember to stick to my tighter physical stops when things lag. When playing with futures part of the game. Light gain due to silver that held up long enough to give me time for profit. The only reason didn't have my computer beside me was the content of speech seemed benign to me, Oh well. I tend to agree with Gary and give this market a breather until some sort of pull back in SNP. And thanks Slumdog will take note of pattern.

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  69. Tz I was awake and watching Benny and saw ticker gold at bottom of Tv down to 1760 and by time got my sell order in I was out around 1755. All I could do was laugh and remember to stick to my tighter physical stops when things lag. When playing with futures part of the game. Light gain due to silver that held up long enough to give me time for profit. The only reason didn't have my computer beside me was the content of speech seemed benign to me, Oh well. I tend to agree with Gary and give this market a breather until some sort of pull back in SNP. And thanks Slumdog will take note of pattern.

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  70. hope to join this community after being reading off scenes. Thanks GS for your good work. Will try share my knowledge on metals and miners, maybe something else too. Appreciate a lot WW's posts as some many others. No trolling for me, as I trade for a living...!!

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  71. BTW, happy to see Gary re open comment section as it has always been a vey pro blog.

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  72. Well, found my previos nick at Disque so from now on Matrix will be Osso...sorry...

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  73. For the sake of LT set ups I am sharing a MA's cross that has been very relevant........http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09533174652

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  74. Silver dive the other day, with an effort to explain what was behind it, It also mentions some relevant differences with the Gold dive, regarding the Bullion banks. Worth viewing....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU_a5VHU3Lc&feature=relmfu

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  75. Gary,

    Is the blog working properly yet, I see a bumch of comments all with your picture, im almost positive you didnt write them though, doesn't sound like you?

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  76. Lastly, a supporting evidence of the big Negative $$ flow in SPY, and the ability of Intervententionists of driving prices up based on the fact of owning the najority of stocks with low capacity of unloading to major other participants. From February, in synch. with significant Negative MACD divergence........http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p85635484376

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  77. SF,

    If you remember, I mentioned that my stop was at $1768 before the leap day drop.

    Although Like Gary said I was expecting a test of $1900 handle had the "W" pattern continued to playout, I think I made it pretty clear I was prepared for a significant drop.

    During the leap day drop, I was watching a gold futures 5 min chart before the market opened, I seen gold spike about $5-$8 or so within 10 min if I recall and then immediately drop about $10-$11 within 15 min...seeing this reversal I took off my last $1781 add (posted that entry on the 23rd I believe). I seen the weakness and was going to say something, but definitely didnt think the pullback I was expecting would occur in one day so I didnt move my $1768 stop up and hust watched.

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  78. The last 15 comments or so, other than mine, have Gary's picture, am i the only one who sees that?

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  79. Both Gary and Poly handled that sell off wonderfully.

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  80. I don't really like the new discus system. As soon as he can I'll have Gurvir return it to the old blogger system.

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  81. I am seeing the same thing. Many comments from "Gary said.." with his picture, but Gary is not writing these. Weird.

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  82. I don't understand why you felt you had to mess with it in the first place.
    Shoulda just left things alone. We were all happy the way it was
    :-)

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  83. I wanted to go back to the original format. But I guess blogger updated and that's not available anymore.

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  84. If you go back, iIt still wouldn't be a bad idea for him to look at the site template (or copy over a new one with the same scheme and colors from a blogger default) in order to correct the "Next Page" issue and maybe a few others. Other sites like Dan Norcini's (also blogger.com) don't have the same weird 'post comment' page that you have where the entry box is top right and the text is in a skinny column on the left. Look at his http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  85. Norcini's site is a standard default blogger template (i've seen in in the settings myself).

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  86. A comment page for norcini:
    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/03/us-dollar-compared-to-comex-gold-chart.html#comment-form
    Notice his comment blank is at the bottom and the comments take up proper width and are easier to read.
    He's also using blogger only but notice people can login with multiple accounts and not just google (which really hits people hard as spammers.)

    I think there is a usable common ground with a fixed blogger template.

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  87. Test - no posts today?

    Le Fou

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