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Friday, March 9, 2012

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67 comments:

  1. 1600 gold will do for me... willing to be patient. Its coming.

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  2. My original gold futures position is break even roughly and I have a small buy order in if we go much lower (with small stop) to add some more risking less than 1%.

    I expected this drop, but it could always keep going.
    A similar drop happened in 2006 and returned to near high by end of day.

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  3. The hiring data points this morning are very good.

    - The economy just had its best 12 months of job growth in more than five years. - @DLeonhardt

    - If you ignore the 516k jobs print from May 2010 due to census hiring, January's 284k marks the best month of hiring since Nov 2005. - @MattNesto

    Regardless of you political view, steady hiring is a good thing.

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  4. Scarry but I added some. Back to 5x.

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  5. Silver has been rebounding quite nicely each time around 33.10...If it breaks that, we could go down couple of dollars, IMO

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  6. Also, with the prospects of no QE3 on dock (no reason for QE3 if the economy & hiring continues to firm as it is), gold and bonds should remain depressed. One could always speculate and bet on a maelstrom of inflation in the future, but that seems very far off at the moment.

    But it also might mean the QE addicted stock market will become increasingly mediocre and less volatile forcing traders to become better "stock pickers" instead of relying on massive fear driven correlation ... until the Facebook IPO that is.

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  7. >Regardless of you political view, steady hiring is a good thing.

    It is my contention that the 'big thing' that is now happening that the mkts haven't fully factored in is...that all the worldwide printing and zero rates is now starting to get TRACTION.

    That it is finally entering the phase or starting to run away from them. Starting.

    Prices are accelerating (slightly, but growing).

    The credit contraction that was a result of 08 has recovered and things are now going positive across the board:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-deleveraging-now-over

    The EU/ECU is blowing out trillions.
    Etc.

    I could be wrong, but that's where I think we are in this part of the phase.

    Oh...and the ECB's part of this just started and the FED is in election mode so they are not going to stop anytime soon. And China is starting to slow and crunch down so they will likely print soon. And japan is having issues also:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/has-japan-run-out-cans-kick

    It's a mess all around but I simply believe all the printing is starting to snowball, but that few people realize it yet. That's why oil and market and gold are going higher here and the VIX is so low.

    Maybe I'm wrong but I think that's the thing that the mkt is missing.

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  8. Gold moved back below the 75dma, a close below the 50dma is likely to initiate the next leg down and push gold back below the 200dma as the B-wave grind sucks in and puts a beating on bulls.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks WW, keep us posted. :)

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    2. WW, do you still have your previous short on from last night?

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    3. at ease,

      I wasn't short last night, never said I was.

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    4. Had an order in to short gold at the 150dma, but it wasn't triggered last night, gold never hit $1715 last night.

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    5. Yes, exactly, you had an order on last night, was asking if you still had it on this morning... I see below you still had it on as it filled this morning. thank you :)

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  9. A return back up to 1710 or so by the close today would be MASSIVELY positive in my book.

    I actually expect it.

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  10. I flipped a coin as to how the week closes for the dow and s&p. I concluded DOWN! Hey, it's a 50/50 chance right?

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    Replies
    1. Heh heh. That's probably as reliable a method as any!

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  11. 1700 recovered.
    Ohh that's gotta hurt.

    Lotta volume dumped in fear on the morning selloff.

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  12. There's only one trade I'm confident in at the moment is the dollar because we have an intermediate cycle low. When the stock market decides to move down it's going to take everything with it. So playing gold is now a lottery ticket on how long the intermediate stock market cycle can stretch. next week will be the 23 week. I just can't buy 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle.

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    Replies
    1. Buying the Dollar is a lottery! It is actually insane to do so right now...

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    2. I like to buy any asset at an intermediate cycle bottom. The only one in that position right now is the dollar.

      The stock market is going to be on the 23rd week of an intermediate cycle. I can't buy anything 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle.

      Gold is at the mercy of the stock market. When the stock market corrects it's going to take gold down with it. Gold has also formed a left translated and failed daily cycle. More often than not this is the sign of the beginning of a move down into an intermediate bottom.

      So I can't buy stocks because it's too late in the intermediate cycle. I can't buy gold because it has formed a pattern that more often than not indicates the beginning of a move down into a major low. Oil is also very late in the timing band for a move down into a major intermediate bottom.

      That leaves me with the only thing left being the dollar index which has just begun an intermediate degree rally.

      I will be happy to buy something else once they move down into an intermediate cycle low.

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    3. Gary, that small blip you saw in gold and SP500 was the intermediate low.

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    4. Probably too early for either one to be an intermediate low. Most likely it was just a half cycle low in the stock market like I discussed in the nightly reports and maybe a daily cycle low in gold but the larger degree intermediate cycle bottoms are ahead.

      At some point the rallying dollar is going to be too much for stocks and gold to overcome and they will succumb to a real profit taking event. Gold is already showing signs of entering the downside of the intermediate cycle and miners are in a confirmed down trend with a clear pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

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    5. Maybe, but I think the gold market has entered the final parabolic stage and the market will not let gold break the last cycle low.

      If I am right, this Monday we should see the miners rally and begin to break the lower lows and lower highs.

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  13. TZ -- you're a god among men with your trading the last few days! That's some nice trading right there.

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  14. Quite a move for you, there, TZ. From down $11 to up $11 in about 4 minutes. Good goin'!

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  15. I simply think the manipulation last week threw the cycles guys systems off (and also, of course, paniced out pretty much everybody). It happens.

    You'll re-sync and get back in (if indeed the low is in). I don't doubt that.

    I took a risk and made a call based on my own work. It was higher risk (and scary this morn) but with that risk comes the reward if I am right.

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    Replies
    1. I'll get back in when I think the next ICL has formed. At this point the odds are that gold may have put in a DCL but this one should also end up being left translated and roll over to make another lower low. This is how B-waves work. They keep everyone hoping and buying every dip but the sellers use the bounces to sell into so they are unable to make higher highs.

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  16. That was to GARY above.

    I have no bad comments about you following what you believe is correct.

    While this week has worked for me so far the action is a small blip on a long term chart and weeks from now we could be lower.

    As I said days ago, I simply thought the drop was a hit and that the low on Tues had a reasonable chance of holding. Enough to bet on...so I did.

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    Replies
    1. I think a lot of people who shorted thinking there is another leg down for metals got scared and got out on the dip this morning. Hopefully this leaves just the people that are long.

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  17. The central banks and guys at the top are all powerful. They create the money the world uses for heavens sake!

    Nobody should feel bad for getting run over like we did or for having systems go haywire.

    But of course if you don't believe in hits and the power of the people controlling the fiat game, then the action of the last week becomes harder to trade because you are then forced to believe the action is natural and follow your system against it.

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  18. The same way that somebody who doesn't belive the xmas-NewYears smackdown was a hit also. If they think it was a normal move down then they are forced to deal with it as 'lower low' and, thus, we have cycle guys saying "can't be X now cause we had that lower low".

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    Replies
    1. Good call...
      manipulation = cycle theorists constant adjustments.

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  19. 150dma gold short is on, stop at 1721

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    Replies
    1. Perfect entry WW, let's see it play out. :)

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  20. regardless, I think Gary is right about the left translated cycle. Silver is only on day 15 and has been running almost 30-33 days to the day lately...considering we're on a failed daily cycle the next low should be in around 32 imho

    I'm furious at myself for not taking a long position on tuesday when it was obvious(somewhat) the gold DCl was in.....hindsight I guess

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  21. Gold haven't made a higher high on the weekly since the September 11 highs.
    No reason to get in here since it's right in the middle of a trading range (1560-1800).

    As a person that uses technical for trading, i would wait for a move below 1600 for entry and exit above 1750. Everything else is noise unless we break out of this range. If you are going to play this, buy below 1600 and sell above 1750.

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  22. W2 --

    Is this the right chart of what you are looking at?

    I feel that something is wrong with my graphs:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/DPSMT/folders/Default/media/6b35789c-3305-41be-bdc5-6fb9259eee8b

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    Replies
    1. As I mentioned a few times in the past, I put my order in $1 below the MA I intend to short. The high so far today was 1714.90.

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  23. DP,

    Im using the April /GC contract, 150dma is at 1715.80

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  24. W2 --

    In barchart.com graphs I posted 150 DMA is a 1717.9.

    Well, it's not the first time people say me that these data diverge from Tradesation and other sources.

    But at least qualitatively it is close, right?

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  25. TNA WKLY

    TNA WKLY

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  26. W2,

    I am crazy enough to follow you ahead of a weekend...Will not be trading on Monday, could you wash it for us? Merci!

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  27. massive volume in the rare earth miners

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  28. The good news is that the S&P did not make a higher high for the week. I believe that since we did not top 1378.4, we have a weekly swing high on the S&P.

    We'll see what Gary says about that in the weekend report. Seems that things are playing out according to his first suggested scenario, which is preferred.

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  29. Just FWIW, I don't know the extent of it, but to assume the market doesn't see some manipulation at all times to varying degrees seems like missing part of the picture. Fear/greed run the markets, and most ppl are looking for an edge under these circumstances (why are you here). With computers slowly becoming more capable, and market makers knowing where large sums of money are sitting on limit orders, dark pools, the list goes on.. Add a degree of corruption to your human nature cycles analysis; if that could be quantified, might give you guys another edge.

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  30. Markets up, TLT up TBT down, US$ up... one side is wrong.

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  31. The market is never wrong. It just is what it is. The bottom line is that stocks are 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle. Gold 11 weeks and already generating left translated daily cycles. The dollar is one week into a new intermediate cycle. I know where the best odds are and that's where I want to place my bet.

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    Replies
    1. You know what I mean Gary, one side will lose in the direction section.

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    2. Who knows. The market has been defying a higher dollar for a while. But I would rather bet on week one than week 23.

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    3. Of course, you have to go with the greater possibility for probability!

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  32. Miyagi-san, here's another: SLV up, but SLW down.

    And what ever happened to RGLD? GLD made a higher high in late Feb, but RGLD didn't confirm, making a lower high.

    So far the best play this year is SLV.

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    Replies
    1. I had bought a pile of SLW on Tuesday's BB crash and sold the next day. Thursday would have brought more profit but today would have reverted to Wednesday's area so I am happy with the transaction although I was not crystal balling today's price.

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    2. I'm studying SLW vs. SLV on a daily chart since Jan 1. During the week of Jan 17th SLV went up, while SLW went down. Similar to today. Then SLW caught up to SLV and exceeded. I hear Gary on cycles, but if SLW turns up on Mon or Tues, I'll go long w/a small 10% position. SLV looks to be going up. Maybe SLV's chart is bottoming ahead of GLD's since the correction started much earlier.

      I'm now wishing I was long SLV.

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    3. I purchased some AG at 18.20 on Tuesday. I own enough SLW already.

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  33. In the same vein: GLD up .67% and GDX off .08%













    0

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  34. SLV continues up into next timeframe

    sheepgetslaughtered.blogspot.com

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  35. "TZ, your a god among men with your trading the last few days" - curtains

    If im not mistaken TZ said he took off part of his position at break even, and the remaining position is still unrealized gains, what are we missing here?

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    Replies
    1. Is this like some alpha-male jab or do you really not realize what I pulled off this week?

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    2. Maybe I missed it. I just remember you taking a jab at me recently for whatever reason, so im wondering was it anything I dont "pull off" pretty much every week?

      From what I can make out of your comments over the week Im not sure if there were any realized gains, if im wrong just correct me, as I would be the first to commend you, instead of taking a job at you like you did me.

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  36. Sorry WW, it just seemed like TZ needed a little lovin' thrown his way. ;-)

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  37. www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-10/china-has-largest-trade-deficit-since-1989-as-imports-gain-1-.html

    "...The data, along with lower-than-forecast inflation, industrial output and retail sales reported March 9, raise the odds PremierWen Jiabao will ease policies to support growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. Commerce Minister Chen Deming’s warning last week that boosting trade by 10 percent this year will require “arduous efforts” may also signal a slower pace of yuan gains as policy makers seek to aid exporters.

    “Easing inflation and weakening economic activity send a strong signal for further loosening in the upcoming months,” said Shen Jianguang..."

    Add one more country and central bank to the list.

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