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Monday, March 5, 2012

Portfolio Change

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

93 comments:

  1. Arrr...you new posted me on my last three posts.

    Good job on the new format gary/gurvir. GREAT improvement with the comment box location and no need to scroll after each post!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Reposting:
    -----
    I called a top in apple 2 weeks ago at approx 520. My system isn't perfect and that call was clearly early (it happens a certain % of the time cause the metrics I use are somewhat subjective).

    The updated top was today, in my opinion, however.

    It is rare that a 2nd call is wrong, but to each their own. Just saying for what it is worth.

    (I'm not shorting cause I find it hard to make money shorting. But I'd sell 100% if I was long. Of course I would already be out from my earlier call. And of course Sentiment trader showed how 500billion companys are down 1month after reaching that level too.)

    If apple peaked, then (as the market darling) the overall market might have also. Which would mean vix heading higher and, I guess, dollar. Which would also mean metal weakness as well.

    So I guess things have all lined up pretty well at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gary,

    I know you preach against going short and I normally agree with you.

    However, I bought some SDS and QID today. And I have EUO from last week.

    I really hate being on the "dark side" but at least SDS and QID are green today.

    ReplyDelete
  4. you may want to take your profit on euo if you have it

    ReplyDelete
  5. I second what SF Giants Fan said ... why do you think I should sell EUO (yes I do have profit in it)?

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  6. Number of days SnP was down > 1% in 2012

    ZERO

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  7. McClellan Oscillator $NYMO getting close to bottoms; meaning we might be just a couple of days away from a bounce.

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  8. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:CEF&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p64509369747

    The most recent attempt at "NOW mining stocks will outperform, I just *know* it!" has again failed. The ratio rolled over and has dropped heading for new lows.

    This isn't a jab at anybody in particular. A LOT of people continue to tout them as undervalued and I myself traded them for a number of years until it sunk in. But they simply continue to not be great buys to play the metals sector.

    ReplyDelete
  9. GARY,

    You gonna love me:

    https://code.google.com/p/blogbanscript/

    This script/widget allows blocking of a custom list of blogger posters. (Something blogger itself still hasn't implemented).

    Won't change the site or the way things work or look it seems.

    Gurvir just has to follow the instructions and then show you how to edit the text page containing the ID's of people to block.

    Problem solved. You can get on with other things in your life.

    ReplyDelete
  10. TZ,

    Since we've watched your forays into gold futures the last 6-8 months, you have booked losses of around 10.5%, from your own mouth, that is if your posts are accurate. As far as we know, yo no longer have a position. Is this correct?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wonder if the same happened to Poly?

      Delete
    2. Based on twitter posts, Gary and poly got out within minutes of each other.

      Delete
  11. I'm down about that much overall since booking silver gains last year. There is much measurement leeway and obviously it isn't a straight line (like we all saw last week) - the returns go up and down.

    Is there a critique coming?....

    ReplyDelete
  12. I have a core position (as always...since I *do* believe in manipulation and since I *do* understand where this game is headed) and cash.

    I stopped out and sold the silver and gold futures last week at break even (then made a bad trade for almost -3%).

    ReplyDelete
  13. TZ,

    I appreciate your honesty, though I do believe focusing on miners vs/ metals is not nearly as important as attention to bet size.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SF Giants & GottaHaveI,

    I am looking for a bounce in the Euro from uptrend line..

    ReplyDelete
  15. SF,

    I responded to your post pertaining to how I dealt with the leap day drop, not sure it posted though as the blog was a mess yesterday. Did you see it yesterday?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just read it. Did you expect that kind of a drop so fast in real time?

      Delete
  16. Although I seen the weakness in the morning, took off my last $1781 add around $1783, and was thinking that gold was about to rollover... I definitely had no clue that the drop would be that significant in one day. I just left my $1768 stop on my position thinking it wouldnt be hit, and planned on moving my stop up in the following session.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Too frustrating posting here using an iPad unable to edit when I move the curser. Left a note for you in the website. The other website.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Gold's normal behavior is to run higher into the European open, sell off into the morning, and put in a bottom before the US open. On the 29th if I recall gold traded flat all night into the morning until around 5:45, when it spiked anout 5-6$ in 5 min and immediately reversed and sold off 10-11$ in 15 min and traded flat until it fell off completely. The only time I see gold not sell off gradually from the European open into a bottom in the morning is on narrow range sessions or down days. To see gold spike in the morning and then immediatly get sold off double is almost always a sure sign of a selloff during the NY session.

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  19. Yeah im having alot of trouble with my Iphone, have to keep leaving the comment box and coming back to backspace.

    ReplyDelete
  20. could the size of the font of the blog be increased? Its very small

    ReplyDelete
  21. There's no option to change font size on comments. You'll just have to pull out your reading glasses, same as me :)

    ReplyDelete
  22. Lol, dont mind pulling out the 3/4" bifocals, its this editing problem that makes my head spin. I miss the old blog before having to identify ourselves by writing the characters, ever since then its been a mess, unless its just an Apple device pyoblem.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hit ctrl+ to increase text and page magnification.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Gary,

    Why is there a little pencil icon next to your name now?

    ReplyDelete
  25. GARY,

    Fonts are changed in the font template:

    http://support.google.com/blogger/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=41431

    Just a bit more tweaking by Gurvir and you will be done. Don't give up yet!!!

    When you make that change, use a font like ARIAL instead of the serif/Georgia you are using now (see below):

    Look at dan norcini's blog again. The template on his page source says (in part):

    ...Variable name="body.font" description="Font" type="font"
    default="normal normal 13px Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"...

    He's using 13 point Arial (then Tahoma, then xxx....) on his page. You just need, maybe 15 point Arial.

    Right now your blog source (same section) says:

    ...Variable name="bodyfont" description="Text Font" type="font" default="normal normal 100% Georgia, Serif"...

    Notice the font is Georgia and Serif. There is no size other than 100% which will default to normal small for most browsers.

    Just change that section of your template and you should be good to go.

    ReplyDelete
  26. GARY,

    There is a second section on the page templates like this:

    body {
    background:#dff2ff;
    margin:0;
    color:#333333;
    font:x-small Georgia Serif;
    font-size/* */:/**/small;
    font-size: /**/small;
    text-align: center;
    }

    That may be the one you have to change instead (or both of them together). Note they both say Georgia Serif and this one says x-small and small for size.

    I didn't spend too much time on this but Gurvir can figure it out with 15min and a few previews. Case closed.

    ReplyDelete
  27. The rule to keep in mind is that MOST of what is on a page is changable, BUT blogger only has a few options on the 'user friendly' portions of its website. All the other stuff that isn't brain dead simple has to be done in the guts of the pages themselves.

    ReplyDelete
  28. ARIAL **BOLD** font for the default instead of arial regular is often much easier to read.

    Just making the letters bigger if they are still mostly 1 pixel wide isn't as good as making them bigger and 2-3 pixels in line width. Try it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TZ

      We can make our posts bold by using <.> at the beginning and at the end where the dot stands for a "b". Of course, you already know that, but others might not.

      best,
      Le Fou

      Delete
  29. TZ

    Here is my problem. When I stop typing and move my cursor to fix an error. I lose control of the text an cannot edit any,ore. Anymore. I have to goto another window then go back and start over. I'm using an iPad and WW imight have same problem with iPhone. Very fustrating

    ReplyDelete
  30. SF,

    Don't know what that could be.

    No computer update or change is perfect. They all have bugs that have to be ironed out. That's just how things are.

    The site is mostly working and clearly I think the comment box and the comment pages work better now. You can also sign on from multiple sources other than google.

    The fonts will be easy enough to fix shortly.

    And as far as the edit field I don't know. The thing to do is be a bit patient and then just have Gurvir look at it with his or a friends ipad (if that is what you think the problem is).

    It will all be ok shortly. Just takes a bit of patience.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SF,

    Exactly, its annoying the hell out of me, if I had the "posting patience" that TZ has it be a different story. It takes twice as long to write a post like this.

    ReplyDelete
  32. I'm sure it isn't anything unfixable because obviously there are millions of people in the world using iphones and ipads on blogspot so I'm sure the problem can be solved.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Never had the problem before, so im assuming its the blog and not the Devices.

    ReplyDelete
  34. TZ

    Thanks, my future post will have more spelling ape odors errors because I won't bother going back to fix them.

    ReplyDelete
  35. I'm not having any problems. Seems to be working fine. I think it must be a problem with the AAPL device.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Even with my poor vision I can easily read the comments. Like Mr. dad said if you want to enlarge the page just hit ctrl+

    ReplyDelete
  37. Gary.. poor vision... stay off those cliffs Mr Magoo!

    ReplyDelete
  38. As you guys jump into the VIX trade you should read this from the WSJ over the weekend:

    online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204571404577257611590932428.html

    ReplyDelete
  39. That vix trade you guys are in has a lot of people joining in. Not sure that is a good sign or not.

    I'm not trading it. Simply don't like the security. The ETFs are NOT the same as buying the $VIX index which everybody follows. The ETFs are based on the futures and the futures do NOT follow the index well.

    ReplyDelete
  40. WW hope you are back in better shape. I need more fishing tips.
    Miyagi hilarious.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Riley,

    Im on vacation :) Still on pain meds for another few days, and sleeping all screwed up still, so you definitely dont want me calling out any cockeyed trades at the moment...lol. We may see gold just chop sideways for a while, so be patient my friend.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Can anyone tell me what the symbol for VIX futures is on TOS. Cant find it

    ReplyDelete
  43. cfe.cboe[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/products/Spec_VIX.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  44. Cant copy and paste from iPhone either with this new blog setup.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Beenie it was a hell of a run, but I think the music has finally stopped.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Getting ready for some action today and tomorrow!

    ReplyDelete
  47. Dan,

    Thats another thing I noticed also, probably going to force less posts out of many of us.

    ReplyDelete
  48. I don't know what you guys are talking about. The new system works flawlessly.

    ReplyDelete
  49. The problem is in your AAPL device. I've heard other people say they took it to the AAPL store and got their problems fixed.

    ReplyDelete
  50. The SPX is at resistance, possible we just get a half cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Support has been the 20dma for any attempt at a decent correction.

    ReplyDelete
  52. CAC40 and DAX finally giving in! We are up for a wild ride today!!

    ReplyDelete
  53. Is the HUI finally going to bust through 480 support after all this time? It would certainly trigger a few stops.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Gold is +-10 from the 200dma, WW will you be adding if it's touched or are you waiting? Are there any other technical levels worth watching on gold or silver?

    ReplyDelete
  55. GREECE: If PSI falls thru, will impose even bigger haircuts.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Rob,

    The 200dma will only serve for a bounce if that, its early in the cycle, with that one day dive it was reached quickly and will most certainly be breached

    ReplyDelete
  57. What MA do you look at between 200 and 300?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Nasdaq very close to the 20DMA...Do not know if it mean something

    ReplyDelete
  59. Matt,

    220 and 275, just found support on the 220.

    ReplyDelete
  60. If look at a gold 5 min you can see the immediate high volume flush to the 220 after the 200 was breached. There was no support on any MA in between the 200 and 220. Everything in between was ineffective.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WW,
      on 5 min. I see gold is way below MA 220 or 200? it's only on daily chart that I see 200 breach and 220 support.
      not sure i read it right.
      thanks

      Delete
  61. WW,

    Do you see the bottom in gold below the December low?

    ReplyDelete
  62. James,

    If the 300dma doesnt hold on a closing basis the way it did in Dec, the D-wave will most likely still be in effect. The only time gold fell significantly below the 300dma was during the 08' decline.

    ReplyDelete
  63. James
    I hope ur still holding those silver silver shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Nope, not any more. I'm trying to find a bottom now.

    ReplyDelete
  65. I've got mine(out today), it's been a good week. Gonna get a bounce here for a week or two before the actual bottom is put in

    ReplyDelete
  66. The dollar just began a new intermediate cycle. That's unlikely to end for at least a month or two (probably 2 minimum). Gold will certainly have bounces from time to time to sucker traders back in (just like it did last Thursday) but it's unlikely gold will form a lasting bottom until the dollar cycle tops.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Gold will certainly have bounces from time to time to sucker traders back in (just like it did last Thursday) but it's unlikely gold will form a lasting bottom until the dollar cycle tops."

      - Gary

      So if one is going to add physical gold, I assume it's best to wait.

      Delete
  67. Gary,

    So where do you think the bottom in gold will be?
    Somewhere between 1400 and 1500?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's no way to determine that ahead of time. I just track the cycles and sentiment and try to pick a bottom in real time when it occurs.

      Delete
  68. GDX almost back to "recognition day" price.

    ReplyDelete
  69. MARKETS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  70. 3x long gold futures; just bought; stop near the low. Risking less than 1%

    ReplyDelete
  71. I will ya on this one. Perhaps a bounce to the 200 MA on the 5 min - currently at 1692. Low risk.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Unless there is a major decline in the SnP down below 3%, this is a move in that direction. Dynamite Triangle 6X will appear, with low probability it won't.
    Anyone trying to catch the bottom even in gold at this time is catching a falling knife. It's a gambler's bet, not an investor's position. Winning or losing is meaningless in that falling knife trade. Compulsive gamblers have their own website.

    ReplyDelete
  73. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  74. I'm expecting a bounce back up of some sort. Will then sell a fraction to reduce the risk to break-even and let the remaining contracts ride.

    ReplyDelete
  75. SLUMDOG, I had only two places (well, possibly three) for gold to hold and bounce on the way lower. This zone is one of them.

    I simply play those zones, small stops, and try to get to break even as soon as possible.

    The trade might lose, but I'm following a plan and not just a hunch.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Isn't just amazing how all the bad news comes out now, when a week ago is was all roses. Like big money uses the media in their favor to help move/flush the market.

    ReplyDelete

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