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Friday, March 16, 2012

COMMENT CLEANER

97 comments:

  1. If gold turns around anywhere in here and returns back up to 1800 then we have a HUGE H&S formation that would project to $2050+.

    My next point to attempt to by is a bit lower closer to 1600.

    Most cycles guys are expecting one more daily cycle in this intermediate cycle for gold, however the intermediate cycles have been very short of late and ending the intermediate cycle with the current lows COULD be within that shortened range. Thoughts gary or others?

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    1. The intermediate cycles haven't been short of late...the last intermediate cycle was 26 weeks, and those before it all in the 20's. A-wave's and B-waves combined consist of a short intermediate cycle. If gold is indeed in a B-wave, we will see this intermediate cycle shortened.

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  2. Same as always. The inverse relationship with the dollar is in full effect. Gold isn't going to bottom until the dollar tops.

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  3. TZ,

    WW, and Doc agrees that near the 1600 is a good buy. WW's 275 DMA and 300 DMA is around there. Doc sees strong support at the 1600 area. Poly has a shortened gold ICL on the table as a low probability. Lots of people are seeing the reverse H&S on gold/silver. I also agree that near the 1600 area is a good point to load up on long-term physical. I also believe we will get a strong bounce if we get there within the next week. Looks like a pretty good spot for at least a good bounce, if not a B-wave bottom.

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  4. A close at 1670 or higher today is VERY (continuingly) bullish, in my opinion.

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  5. Yes I know we went lower and I lost my position before, but by bullish I mean that I don't see some kind of "all hands abandon ship" situation. We are whipping around and not in a strong up trend, but all in all gold is holding general parameters of a bull market. It is just hard for us to get a good position so far.

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  6. Swing low in full effect as my crystal ball had predicted!

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    Replies
    1. Can't be the Dollar. Yesterday you said the Dollar had topped.

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    2. Swings are only meaningful when they occur in the timing band for a cycle low. Gold looks like it is only on day 7 of a new cycle so a swing at this point would be meaningless.

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    3. And gold has not formed a swing BTW.

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  7. So far SPX is playing out as per my last post. Now it's over 1400 (along w/ NASDAQ > 3000 & Dow > 13000), it's time for it to pull back 5% in the next 2 weeks. Selling my calls & buying puts. I think that next dip will be best buying opportunity on SPX. I know, I'm going against Gary's advice by shorting. Let's see if it'll play out.

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  8. The 86-day cycle ends on Friday, March 23, so you could be a week early on buying puts. I'm long SSO for a trade but will close between Wednesday and Friday. Then will wait for a break, and will short the following retracement with a stop just above whatever the high turns out to be. Not as heroic as calling the top before it comes, but a lot safer.

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  9. Don't know if it was here or on the premium blog, but someone posted that Gann indicators called for a sharp reversal in the March 21-23 time span also. For what it's worth.

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  10. I think its destiny that the HUi:gold ratio hits the 2008 lows. The symmetry of the chart is stunning.

    That being said, in order to maintain that symmetry, the next drop will likely be a big one, which should tag the lows. I think this will coincide with a large drop in gold and silver and the stock market, or perhaps just a large drop in the stock market.

    We could definitely rally in the miners in the next few days given how oversold we are, at least on the daily charts, but I doubt it will be a sustained rally.

    The perfect setup would be for gold, silver, the miners and the stock market to more or less bottom at the same time. This hasn't happened in a long time.

    The ray of hope I have on the miners is the massive positive divergence the weekly HUI:gold chart is displaying. So long as the bull isnt over, the miners will be up in absolute terms and relative to gold for a sustained period of time.

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  11. Big red candle on UUP's daily chart today.

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    1. Also fyi on GLD. I just noticed that from the Dec 29th low of 148.27, to the Feb 28th high of 174.00, that this Wed's low of 158.80 is nearly the full 61.8% Fib retracement (158.07 would be perfect). Given that GLD only trades in the NY timezone, I'd say that $GOLD is pretty much fully retraced. I am expecting a bounce out here, irrespective of the dollar. I don't doubt that the dollar can continue to rise, but gold is not the dollar, and correlations aren't 100%, so I'm just watching gold, and am expecting a breakout soon.

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    2. Also fyi, an important article by Steve Saville (Aussie living in HK) about rising interest rates and gold.

      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville031612.html

      The net being, the "real" interest rate is not rising, as inflation is rising faster than the interest rate, so the current correction in gold is a blip, and the bull rages on.

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    3. I won't look for a top until the Dow:gold ratio is back to 1:1.

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    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    6. Saville writes wonderful analysis of the macro view and economic/ political analysis. His investment focus is on "value" juniors, which is not the best strategy in my opinion. But the former is a great read and arguably worth the subscription price.

      He actually moved from HK to Shanghai and then to Malaysia.

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  12. Another interesting tidbit which is rather ominous. Just prior to the spx taking a nosedive in 2008, the HUI:spx ratio crashed--very very similar to what is happening right now. Could the crash is the HUi: spx ratio be foretelling a 2008-like crash in equities???

    I doubt it, but check it out for yourself. Pretty spooky.

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    1. I should point out, after the intial crash of the hui:spx ratio in 2008, it rebounded. When that rebound ended, the entire market crashed. I have to say it again, the similarites to the action in 2008 are really spooky. Given the stock market is looking bubbleriffic, this scenario has got to be on the table. The next few months are going to be VERY significant in our investing lifetimes.

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    2. Another comment to my own post.... Lol
      I should point out that the ratios could play out just like in 2008, but with the stock market melting UP instead of down. You would just need the HUI to be left behind, which is exactly whats happening now.

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  13. Greenspansconscience,

    I'm enjoying your commentary. I talk to myself all the time. ;)

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  14. OK here is my black swan scenario over the next few months:
    gold and miners will likely get a bounce in the next week or two and outperform a flatish to down stock market.
    At that point, the bond market starts to implode and stocks begin a take off into a Zimbabwe like parabolic blowoff, leaving gold and the miners behind ( they go down, but no crash). At some point during this madness the Fed will be forced to QE to "save" the bond market. Once they make this announcement, or maybe a month before, gold and the mining stocks will take off on an unprecedented upward run.

    There you have it--2008, but in reverse. You heard it here first.

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    Replies
    1. Black swam prediction number one.

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    2. Why would the bond market implode? So long as the dollar is outperforming other currencies there will be a demand for risk-free assets denominated in dollars. Even if the price of bonds in US $ goes down, its purchasing power will be buoyed by the currency due to higher, more attractive interest rates.

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    3. Why will bond prices go down? Simple. Too much supply and not enough demand.

      Seriously, at what point does the 30 year bond bull end? Or do you think it goes on forever?

      If I know bond rates will be higher tomorrow than today, and higher still a month from now, and on an on, and that the us govt cannot remain solvent under those conditions, why on earth would I hold onto a US bond much less buy one today?

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    4. Oh yeah, I forgot to add, that's what happens when bubbles burst, and US treasuries are the biggest bubble of them all.

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  16. Learn to read. It's a "black swan" prediction. I am not banking on anything.

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    1. All right, I think I am starting to follow you now. You are discussing a prediction that has odds of less than 100:1 of occuring. I mean no disrespect. You are clearly shartp. My braille tutor says I am a good student.

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    2. Ok I'll make this simple for you: what does the Fed do if interest rates begin to rise relentlessly?

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  17. Any thoughts on today's featured zerohedge article? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/where-money-really-be-careful-what-you-wish

    I'm not quite sure what they're getting at.

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    1. All that cash on the sidelines amounts to inflationary "tinder" that can be set off with a sufficient spark...

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  18. Ok I am going to revise my short term thesis a bit with some even more unbelievable predictions.

    I think an EPIC spike in the stock and commodities markets is coming very soon, likely before October.

    I do not think the HUI and gold will underperform once this is underway. The reason I think that is because the SPX and the HUI are in almost the EXACT place there were in 2008 JUST before the crash: SPX=1400 and HUI=475. It's as if nothing happened since 2008--they are both right were they were in the summer of '08. That is simply stunning to me (and extremely weird). Additionally, the HUI:GOLD ratio is *very* close to the 2008 bottom. This leads me to believe that the HUI is going to outperform when this all gets rolling.

    As I stated, I believe owners of treasuries will be like millions of rats trying to flee a sinking ship through a single exit. IMO, the inflationary genie is out of the bottle. The question is how will the Fed respond? By raising the fed funds rate above the real level of inflation? By withdrawing liquidity? I don't think they can do either of these things. Instead they will be forced to QE to suppress rates. The result will be an extreme spike in asset markets like we have never seen. It will be 2008 literally in reverse.

    Here's another crazy prediction: I don't think the HUI closes below 475 on a weekly basis ever again. We could tag something like the 200 week moving average intraweek (440 I believe), but I predict it will bounce back hard by the Friday close. 475 is so significant for a lot of reasons. This prediction is probably the one I am the most uncertain about, however, since technical levels are often breached to shake out technical traders.

    There you have it. Call me crazy, I could care less.

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  19. I think you are right.

    And the really crazy part of this is that the USD will likely be rising throughout the entire "process"!

    So basically, over the next 30 days accumulate physical metal andining stocks....weighted toward silver

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    1. Andining should be and mining...

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  20. Those shorting the Euro over the last couple of weeks are about get a rude surprise when the Euro goes above $1.40! Dollar topped in mid January '12 and won't be making any new highs.

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  21. Weekend Update

    GLD & DJIA targets for next week.

    http://sheepgetslaughtered.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/weekend-report.html

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  22. Despite of all the talk about how the Dollar is super strong and ready to make new highs, the truth is that over the last 3 month time frame, the US Dollar has been a % performance loser against all currencies apart from the Yen and Indonesian Rupiah.

    Euro, Pound, Franc, Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Taiwan Dollar, Korean Won, Thai Baht, Brazilian Real, Russian Ruble, Indian Rupee, Chinese Yuan, Mexican Peso, South African Rand, Turkish Lira, Polish Zloty, Czech Krona and Chilian Peso; plus PMs like Gold, Silver and Platinum have all gained over the last three months. And that is including recent Dollar rally and recent currency and metals corrections.

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  23. And if the dollar drops back below the Feb 29th low then we would have a reversal of the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. If that happens then I would revert to a dollar bear. Until then I know better than to fight the dominate trend. And that trend has been higher since May of last year.

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  24. What happened to you Gary? You have become the epitome of all you had use to think and espouse was wrong with traders, stock pickers and the majority of people "playing" the market. You have mentioned a "portfolio change" at least six or seven times in the last MONTH or so?? You use to completely rag anyone who would suggest such frequent trading.You have moved to just about strictly TA now,(yes cycle trading is TA) which you used to readily and handedly dismiss as nothing more "than squiggly lines on a chart" and worthless. I feel you have become that which you use to demonize and admonish by selling your opinions and now being forced to feel the need to constantly update and coddle your subscribers and provide them with a contunual stream of information to make them and you feel as if they are getting their monies worth. Its obvious its causing issues in the fact that the last real comment you managed to pick the exact most recent bottom as the point to "prove " how right you were in telling others not to be long this market, Its up about 5% since then? the constant portfolio changes and the often flip flopping of the side of the market to be on. Thats the overtrading you used to despise. Anyhow ,, not attacking you personally , just pointing out that it appears you have become that which you used to ridicule out of necessity to provide fodder for your followers.

    As always, Best
    Plunger

    PS. Before any of your followers take offense and rush to your defense keep in mind folks Ive been reading garys Blog since the begining when it was not a money making venture, there were very few participants and it was strictly a COT ideology gary followed. Long, long before most if not all of you even knew who he was. We may have disagreed occasionaly but I always admired his convictions and disclipline in his investing style and we had many many heated discussions about TA and overtrading and the market in general. I just hate to see him in what appears to be, being "forced" to move in a direction which used to be completely counterintuitive to his true fundamental approach to investing.

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  25. Adam Hamilton feels the Euro will rise and the dollar will go down as Europe recovers.He has been good on his calls for years so reading his work is a good idea.Good Luck

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  26. I warned subscribers many months ago that this was coming. We aren't on the downside of a three-year dollar cycle. Buy and hold doesn't work in this environment. Look what is happening to the buy-and-hold crowd in the precious metals since September.

    I am simply adjusting to changing market conditions. The performance of the model portfolio would suggest that we are using the correct strategy for the current market environment.

    Once the dollar gets on the downside of its three year cycle then we can go back to a buy and hold type strategy.

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    1. The US Dollar topped in early October of last year against commodity currencies. It topped around late November or early December last year when one looks at emerging currencies. It topped in middle January of this year against European currencies. Here we are almost in April so that means you are about 3 to 6 months too late. By the time you figure out the Dollar has topped, it will be probably time to buy the Dollar back for a trade, because so many investors will be shorting it. p.s. Charts are deceiving nor is it in a secular bull market, coz your weekly MA told you so.

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    2. It's pretty simple really. If the dollar drops back below the Feb. 29th intraday low then we will have a failed intermediate cycle in progress. That would confirm your view and that would turn me bearish on the dollar as it would also suggest that the three year cycle has topped.

      Until it does that we still have a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. We have a rising 200 day moving average, a 50 day moving average that has crossed above the 200 (golden cross) and the dollar is above both. The 200 week moving average has turned up after almost 12 years.

      Until the dollar does something wrong I have to stick with the cyclical trend. Let's face it, one doesn't get rich by fighting trends.

      Our stop is about 1% below our entry so we have almost no risk in the trade but lots of upside, especially if the stock market decides to correct. Those are the kind of odds I can trade and make money with.

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    3. It is actually much simpler than that. The market price has already decided the next movement, and regardless of how you read your charts, the Dollar has already topped. The difference is, you are using lagging metrology of trend trending and of course there is nothing wrong with that, as being a bottom picker carries most reward but also most risk. Waiting until the Dollar makes this pattern and that pattern takes a lot of time, and for some this is fine, but for others its too late. It all depending on your investment.

      I don't like flip flopping in and out 10 times over and over like you do, depending on what Bernanke, Markel or Draghi say week in and week out. I regard that as noise, while the market maintains its trend. So I just shorted the Dollar once and only once against the Swiss Franc at 95 cents in middle of January and I have held that short all this time and will to hold it as long as Dollar downtrend continues. Yes, some of us have figured that the Dollar is in a downtrend for a few months already and by the time DXY shows it to you in your pattern, you will be already months late from the top. For some currencies, like the Australian Dollar, you are actually about 6 months too late to call a Dollar top. That is a huge time period of not understanding what the trend is. Besides, Euro shorts still stand at 100,000 so that will ensure further recovery. My view is we move higher from here towards $1.40.

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    4. I wish I had your crystal ball. I'll just have to continue to play this in real time unfortunately because mine is still broken :)

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    5. BTW I don't like trading in and out either. But I hate losing money even more, and right now that is the environment we are in with everything except the stock market. And I can't buy stocks 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle so that leaves me with no choice but to trade a shorter time frame than I would like until the dollar gets on the downside of it's three year cycle.

      I'm more than satisfied with the results so far. I would have been ecstatic to return 10% in this environment. We have done three times that with very little risk. So I'm not going to complain. I'll be happy if we can just hold onto the gains while we wait for confirmation of a dollar top. Once I have that then I will revert back to longer trade durations and look for more sustainable trends.

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    6. None of what you just said has anything to do with the topic of currencies. Every time I talk about the dollar you start talking about stocks and cycles. I think you don't have a lot of currency knowledge apart from what week of a cycle you are in.

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  27. Anybody see any chance that gold just set a cycle low this week instead of two weeks ago? It would be in the regular timing band at 23 days instead of 17.

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  28. No swing yet so no indication of a bottom. Another bear flag is probably more likely.

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  29. COT gold data http://goo.gl/wGNj4

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  30. So very very basically, buy silver and gold over the next few weeks......

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    1. As long as you can weather draw downs any time is a good time to buy gold.

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  31. What investors should be focusing on right now, away from flip flopping in and out of currencies and PMs, is investing in Grains and letting the PMs sector consolidate after such a strong move over the last several years out of the October 08 bottom. Grains are about to move higher on the upside, with Wheat, Oats and Rice looking very good. Weak Dollar will ensure a boast to the prices too. Ethanol prices have also bottomed, and that could boast Corn further. Soybeans already had a great recovery and could pause, so caution is advised here. I've been long Agriculture since middle December 2011.I plan to buy some Rice on Monday too. It looks to have bottomed after months of a downtrend.

    Finally, there was a guy on this blog that called me crazy for saying Wheat had a chance to move higher towards 2011 levels. I told him I was long Wheat as well as other Grains & Softs since middle of December at $5.80 a bushel through RJA ETF. He said few weeks ago he was heavily short and was adding a lot more shorts. He was talking supply and demand and said Wheat was a record high surplus inventories. I agreed and stated that all of that data is correct, but that we had historical record COT shorts on Wheat. So if you, me and him, plus everyone else knew that... it was discounted by a 2011 bear market and now everyone was short. A contrarian view was necessary.

    Now we have Wheat breaking up above 200 MA, so I wonder if he is still around to make a comment on what he is doing now? Still adding shorts to Wheat? Still continue record planting this season?

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    1. I don't have any way to get a cycle count on grains. Without that I'm not comfortable trading any asset.

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    2. Tiho,

      Are you American?

      Just curious...

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    3. Apparently corn fields in the upper midwest are starved for moisture. I own JJG, and DAG just broke out.

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    4. Smart man Bob!

      Phil - if I said yes, would that change the way markets move this week? The answer is no.

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  32. TZA



    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  33. BEANS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  34. Law signed by the president that limits freedom of speech (protest)

    http://youtu.be/9W38EG0FZZw

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  35. And another new law which is even worse.

    http://theintelhub.com/2012/03/18/obama-executive-order-peacetime-martial-law/

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  36. The week ahead.

    http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/03/buy-candidates-for-week-ahead.html

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  37. I doubt Gary appreciates you hunting for new subscribers on this blog, but that'll be for others to decide.

    Erik Swarts (not a paid service) identifies a number of Bollinger Band outliers, March 16: XLF / VIX / TNX / SPX / TLT / NDX / TRAN.

    "While it is not uncommon to find one market or asset outside from time to time - it is quite unusual to see them all register at once."

    http://www.marketanthropology.com/2012/03/confession.html

    To Gary and other experienced traders, to what significance do you attach to these observations, and / or do you consider a significant reversal imminent?

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  38. Thats why its a good investment. Because you need to own real assets in this environment and you know over the long term even his newsletter is more valuable than the dollar

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  39. That is why Ryan Leslie is rapping about Swiss Francs, while Jim Rogers owns some. Both are shorting the US Dollar, now thats real Smart Money tracking....

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  40. Jim Rogers owns the dollar. Get your facts straight.

    Here's the thing. It's most important to you to be right. You want to tell everyone "I told you so".

    I could care less if I'm right. All I care about is making money. I trade with the trend based on cycles and sentiment. The trend for the dollar index is up. The trend for gold and silver is down right now. The trend for stocks is up but too stretched both technically and cyclically for me to buy.

    So the only asset that is at the beginning of an intermediate rally is the dollar. So that's what I want to buy. Our stop is very close so we won't lose an appreciable amount if we're wrong. This is how we've made 30% in 8 months with almost no risk. That's good enough for me. It's certainly good enough that I'm not going to screw around with my system based on your feeling that the trend has changed before it does anything wrong.

    Like I said I would need to see an intermediate cycle fail before I turn into a dollar bear.

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    1. Jim Rogers owns the Dollar for a trade. He bought it May 2011 at the bottom. Majority of his portfolio are commodities and foreign currencies. When you own foreign currencies you are technically shorting the Dollar.

      Get your facts straight.

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    2. Anyone who watches his interviews should also note he owns a lot of Euros, Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs, plus small positions in Sng Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar.

      That means is shorting the USD against all of them.

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    3. Haha. I told you so remarks? Are you serious? Man someone of us actually want money and a lot of it. And those who want to make a lot of money know that the best way to do that is to buy a bottom of a trend and catch it as far as possible until a top comes.

      I've shorted the Dollar because I think it topped on 16 th of Jan and will not go higher than that. I've argued a lot of facts, tools and currency breadth methods to why I think that will occur and your cycle analysis will fail. If I am wrong, I couldn't care less about you telling me I was wrong, what I care about is how much money I will lose.

      However, luckily for me, the dollar needs to rally to 95 Swiss francs before I break even and silver needs to fall to $26.75 for me to break even. And I won't brag about my returns in numbers and figures, but without flip flopping 10 times out of trades, other investors could have just shorted the dollar in mid jan and be up much more than 10%!

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    4. But if he also owns the dollar isn't he then shorting other currencies in effect?

      Fundamentally who is printing right now. Europe. Trillions of EURO (and China). Which currency is in a cyclical downtrend? Euro.

      Who isn't printing anymore and which currency is in a cyclical uptrend? The dollar.

      If the dollar breaks below the Feb 29th low then that will be reversed and I will jump on the dollar bear band wagon.

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    5. If majority of your portfolio is long commodities and currencies, than a long Dollar trade is a hedge. So the answer is no as the hedge protects his billion plus dollar portfolio.

      When you jump in, I'll be covering. Why? Coz it's obvious to you and majority of others with lower lows. There is no money in the markets when something becomes obvious. If its too easy... Majority of the time it will not work?

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    6. You ask who is printing money? The answer is Europe. But you know that, I know that and e market knew that much much earlier than both you and I did. I'd aue that we have discounted LTROs when Euro fell for 9 months from May 2011 and bottomed in Jan 2012. We fell from 1.49 to 1.26... that is a very decent fall.

      So I'm arguing that you are bearish on the Euro at the bottom of is bear market and using fundamental news from the media, which I personally think the market has priced in, because we all know it and talk about it day in day out. And being bearish at the bottom of a downtrend is what a contrarian loves to hear...

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  41. Funny, how no matter how well one does someone is never satisfied. I suppose even if we were up 200% someone would complain (sigh).

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  42. Gary, your subscribers are quite satisfied.

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  43. Gary

    Thank you very much for your market analysis, your subs are more than satisfied with the return. God bless you.

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  44. Gary,

    These guys who come on and rile you up are not "complaining", they are "baiting". All of us who are subs know that there is nothing to complain about, so I'd guess that they are not subs, just keyboard provocateurs with nothing better to do than try to create trouble where there is none.
    Please don't pay any attention to them. We don't.

    Your subs are VERY happy with the steady, low risk gains we've been getting.
    Please ignore the trolls.

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  45. Are we witnessing the top right here?

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  46. Actually, I read Tiho's blog. He's a fund manager and posts great data and analysis. I don't think he was trying to "rile" anyone, just posting his opinion. There is no reason to be rude to him for doing so.

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  47. Well if Tiho is a fund manager and has his own blog, then why is he spending so much time every day here on Gary's blog challenging Gary's analysis?
    Seems like he'd have better things to do on behalf of his own followers, one of whom is apparently you.

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    1. Coz I love Gary's analysis!

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    2. Like I keep saying and you keep ignoring. As soon as the dollar does something wrong, like make a lower low, then I will join you in the dollar bear camp. Until then I'll stick with the cyclical trend. With our current stop we have less than 1% risk in the trade.

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    3. I'm not ignoring, you just don't understand strategy.

      Assume I am right for one second, here is what happens. Dollar makes a new lower low and it becomes obvious that we have a downtrend. Afterwards you join in, but since it's obvious, everyone else does too. They cut their euro shorts, which currently have been driving the Euro higher, and than majority short the Dollar.

      Next thing you know, few weeks later, there is a huge short squeeze drive that kills all the late comers and tight stop loss traders. Majority of novice traders loose money, while guys like you suffer drawdowns that take balls to hold.

      I think that's rather stupid, because when something is obvious to the public, it's obviously wrong. You are either a contrarian or a casualty in the market, and I know where I rather be. So when it becomes obvious that the Dollar is going down even to you due to lower lows, than when you buy, I'll cover my sorts at least a bit and wait for a short squeeze...

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    4. Speaking of being a contrarian, jump on Bloomberg and read the Dollar article which shows Dollar traders are most bullish in the futures market since 1999.

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