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Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Alternate dollar cycle added

I've added an alternate dollar cycle to the cycle count link on the website.

833 comments:

  1. Gary can we expect another promotion on membership soon ? i would like to join but at discount ;)

    Also i renew my question: is this possible that gold put bottom at 1527 or it should go lower to about 1500 ?

    i closed my position to early and now im waiting for a moment to join again, dont want to miss it..

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  2. Gary,
    Where is the "cycle count link" on the website? Nothing seems to have that label.

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  3. Karl, look under "Charts."

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  4. Whoops. Need to remember which Google account I'm logged into.

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  5. Gary - do you think stocks will follow gold for another high, say to 1425-1430 by late May/early June?

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  6. Sulim,

    I think you'll do much better join right away, but there's a 1 month subscription while you're waiting for a bargain on a subscription that's already a screaming bargain.

    Don't wait, Sulim. That THE MOST EXPENSIVE OPTION.

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  7. Thanks for the alternate count Gary.

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  8. Gary,

    I meant where is the top of the BB. Make sense?

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  9. Steve,
    What meaning does the top of the BB have?

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  10. gary, whats your best stab as to where this correction ends in silver.

    i know you said you expected an avalanche of buying around 40, that still your view?

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  11. Clark,

    Think Gary said to watch gold and RSI 5 getting oversold.

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  12. I think this is it..The dollar sucks and silver went down to 40,32..Gold down to 1516..Very close to Garys target.

    The only thing we are waiting for is for gold to be oversold.

    Earlier silver was leading gold. I think silver has bottomed..

    I dont expect that we will go under 40,32 in silver when the dollar sucks like this. No way!

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  13. Hi Gary: Will you send an [intraday] update for adding to positions? And I never made the switch.. I'm guessing GDXJ/options or similar might be part of the plan.
    Guidance will be helpful. Thanks!

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  14. I know SMT portfolio followers are already 140% in this market. But for many others here waiting to add, be careful waiting for a full pull back.

    With a poor ADP number today and a dollar in obvious distress, I would be very careful in dismissing the last 2 days of declines and yestday's $1,527 print as the cycle low. It makes good sense that if the alternative cycle is in play and we're 20 days or so away from a 3yr cycle low that gold would sniff this out and only give you a partial drop.

    Gold was not ridiculously stretched and if on the verge of a final C-Wave parabolic run, it would be acting strong even into a cycle low. Add to the fact they we are way past the timing band for a low and although the drop didn't break the trend line, it sure as hell touch it and produced a 3% drop.
    If we were willing to print a cycle low on a 4% drop, I would be cautious trying not to split hairs and dismiss the 3% drop as one, in light of what is to come. I say this not to contradict, but to be at least prepared for this scenario and have some piece of the action.

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  15. I will not be adding to positions as I'm fully invested. I will note in the nightly update if I think the cycle has bottomed.

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  16. The dollar has reversed the swing. Arrons cycle count may very well turn out to be correct.

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  17. Amazingly enough if gold were to have bottomed yesterday the runaway move would still be on the table as we would have a perfect $40 correction.

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  18. Poly,

    Very good overview, thanks a lot.

    But....If...The dollar reverses from here, we do have a clear double bottom.

    Any concerns with that?

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  19. Poly,

    You last post: Are you saying to be careful because the low could already be in? Or be careful because there is more downside ahead of us?

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  20. Hot Rod,

    Just saying it's an alternative to watch out if you're "under invested".

    Even if we get a further drop, this late in the cycle it couldn't much further down from yesterday's $1,527, so what if you miss 1% on gold!

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  21. The supposed double bottom in the dollar might or might not materialize. The setup is not ideal as the dollar could be due to bounce, but I'm mostly ignoring it for metals trading purposes.

    If you waste energy on the dollar, you not only have to guess it's direction correctly (tough if can't get metals right on their own), but you ALSO have to assume the usual relationship (dollar up/metal down) will hold. We've seen enough times that is not always the case.

    I prefer to focus on my trade regardless of the dollar action.

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  22. Pima,

    Be careful of a runaway and have some skin in the game. I guess we all have skin in it by now anyway :)

    I still hope we can drop to a real cycle low, that would give us a nice stop to play with too.

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  23. sulim,

    Sign up today! Don't wait around. You trying to save pennies and it could end up costing you hundreds or thousands of dollars.

    Gary's premium service is very inexpensive. If you're not sure you want to commit to 6 months or a year, sign up for month and see how you like it. However, my recommendation is to sign up for at least 6 months. You will not be disappointed and your account will benefit enormously. Do it right now!

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  24. Thanks, Poly. I thought that's what you were saying.

    Yes, I have skin in, but added only a little yesterday. Of course, if I knew we weren't going to go lower, I'd add more today. I may do that anyway as I'm not as fully invested as I want to be for this last run.

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  25. I'm also not concerned about miners getting away from me on the upside just yet.

    I don't know what the first hour will do, but even if they go higher, my charts are suggesting there is a probable pullback by mid-day at the latest if not earlier.

    Let's see.

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  26. Had AGQ buy orders in for the open in my low risk accts but cancelled at the last second with some quick read on weakness.

    I hate this game.

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  27. I'm leaving in 20 minutes , but I just wanted to chime in :)

    GPL looked like a lighter volume retest of the low put in last week. Last week it shot up 17% in one day when it reversed.

    So I added to my GPL and AG yesterday.

    POLY and LE FOU-

    I read that you guys got AG too.

    Last April 12 to 13th , when it bottomed, it jumped $3 in one day ($4+ in 2 days)...Did you both buy to 'trade' or holding for the run at this point?

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  28. Alex,

    I bought to hold to the C-Wave top.

    What would be your #2 + #3 picks? GPL?

    Thanks always.

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  29. In licking my wounds, I took a look at the Gold C-Wave tops from 2004, 2006 and 2008 to determine any lessons for this go-round.

    I'd post a chart with the results, but I'm too technologically challenged to know how, so I'll provide it verbally.

    Gold Price stretch (high print) over 200 SMA:
    2004: 12%
    2006: 41%
    2008: 32%
    Current: 17% (Recent high price)
    Gold price to match 2008 stretch: 1784+ (I did not project future 200SMAs, but used current)

    Gold price stretch (high print) over last significant consolidation zone (I was conservative with consolidation zones):
    2004: 10%
    2006: 27%
    2008: 22%
    Current: 10% (Recent high print)
    Gold price to match 2008 stretch: 1742

    I discount 2004 to a degree, since the bull market in precious metals was not as well understood as in 2006 and 2008.

    So if past is prologue, we have further to go in Gold (mid 1700s). I know that this is not a new thought, but I thought the analysis might be of interest.

    If anyone know how to explain chart posting to a neophyte, I'm all ears.

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  30. Aaron's dollar cycle count makes sense as all the cycle highs in the current downtrend seem to tag the 30 dma. The high on 18th April tagged the 30dma.

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  31. silver down again 1.8%

    this is like never ending

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  32. Thanks TJ.

    Those numbers put it into perspective nicely, no need to chart that!

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  33. Gary,

    I've been a long-term buy-and-hold guy on miners for a couple years (based on fundamentals). I have about 20 mining stocks (such as SLW, EXK, AG, GORO, MFN, FVITF, RGLD, SVM, etc.) that I am currently holding.

    How should we position ourselves for maximum benefit for the upcoming C-Wave rise in miners? Would you recommend that I consolidate; leave well enough alone; get better leverage (e.g. NUGT); SLW options; other consideration(s)?

    Thank you for the guidance.

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  34. TJ,

    Thanks for doing that research..

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  35. Lillie-

    Happy to do it. Analysis is therapeutic for me.

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  36. AAron, are we going to 1.50 on Eur/usd? Pretty strong so far

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  37. Poly-

    You're right, of course...I'm big on putting analysis into visual context, where possible.

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  38. POLY

    Last week I was looking at Gold stocks, but the set ups on some silvers are looking good I switched to looking at wkly charts.

    Look at AG w/20sma , EXK , and GPL

    They look good.

    as for my AG, lets say it goes up to $19.50 on $3 million, then $22 on 2 million...I will sell. It fits the pattern and I would shoot for a lower buy.

    These chart still works so far

    http://www.screencast.com/t/QoDpLkfKzT

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZXtDulzP3

    http://www.screencast.com/t/eIvBi5aESl

    Gone for a few hours, happy trading

    p.s. no gap today on AG :)

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  39. Good morning, all.

    Who knows...today might just give us a break from high drama in the PMs. Maybe we wobble around and close flat or even a bit up.

    Then tomorrow gives us another sharp down day to flush out the rest of the weak hands before we pivot Friday.

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  40. TJ: Here's what I do---Copy the chart to your desk top. Go to a free site like imageshack.us Hit "Browse" and it will allow you to browse your own computers desktop. Find the chart you put there and hit upload. Once done a screen will appear to the left. Copy the url in "link" and cut and paste it to our blog. Done. There may be a better way (I won't say who, but you don't need to point out that I'm I'm a moron---I know), but this is quick and works fine.

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  41. Good Morning, thanks for all the sentiment and thoughts shared yesterday. Blog made for a good day of reading and sharing the pain.

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  42. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  43. DG, this made me laugh out loud:

    "There may be a better way (I won't say who, but you don't need to point out that I'm I'm a moron---I know), but this is quick and works fine."

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  44. just bought some DAX to keep busy...

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  45. Thanks, DG...I'll give it a shot.

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  46. This is weird. DXY Breaking and Gold doesn't give a shit.

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  47. Gary, I am not one who regularly comments on your blog, but I do check it regularly because your work on cycles is very valuable and unique.

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  48. that was not a good idea !

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  49. Thanks Alex, appreciate it

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  50. Silver SLV 120Min Chart ,Possible support levels :

    http://screencast.com/t/mvlDfIXQ4Jif

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  51. Sophia, there is talk of Euro rate hike tomorrow, I doubt it.
    Still holding on, the trade was times, not priced, so Im giving it till Friday to work, and I NEVER use stops.

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  52. Jim,
    I can't answer that question for you. All I can do is show you what I'm doing. My portfolio is published in every weekend report.

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  53. Aaron: I'[m intrigued. If you never use stops what happens when you are wrong and don't know it?

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  54. Gary: I am surprised that even after the huge shellacking silver has taken the decoupling from gold is still present today. Do you have any plan or thoughtds to handle the possibility that by the time gold is oversold, AGQ might be 190?

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  55. Silver miners showing some strength so far today. Possibly a good sign????

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  56. TJ,

    If you want to post charts in the future, you can use Jing. Not too hard to do. You first have to download the program from here:

    http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/

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  57. I'm doing a little buying in here.

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  58. Hot Rod,

    Gold sniffing out a dollar bottom?

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  59. You're welcome Pima.

    I wanted to verify as much as I could whether, other opinions notwithstanding, I believed Gold (as PM driver) would go up. The decoupling from Silver, though, has me flummoxed.

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  60. Pima-

    Thanks for the Jing tip...I'll check it out.

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  61. ISM number was a shocker! ADP numbers look bad. No stimulus left to spend. No tax cuts to come. No political will to fix the problem.

    Yeah sure the dollar has bottomed! Not.

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  62. ALEX,

    AG is a hold for me, partly because I may not be able to trade actively for the next 2 1/2 weeks, but I believe that AG & EXK are the class of the field to hold into the hoped for parabolic top.

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  63. if we're looking for gold to get oversold here..silver could be mid 30s, if not low 30s

    in that case, this is the d-wave right?

    maybe we bounce to 45 as gold goes to 1650

    atleast for silver.

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  64. Pima,

    I don't know. Everything seems to be decoupled right now and there sure are still a ton of sellers in gold.

    The gold range is narrowing fast. We either break up or down (stating the obvious).

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  65. I am getting real tired of this! I guess I should shut down BUT I wanna
    buy so I listen and wait and wait.
    This job requires so much patience.

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  66. Gold and Silver Troll very apt name.

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  67. TJ: For me, I don't like downloading stuff into my computer. You never know what incompatibilities there might be.

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  68. DG I do this for a living, its my job. My stops are mental, this specific trade was to last till till Friday, price isnt as relevant.
    When Im wrong I pay the price. You only have to be right 60% of time if proper leverage and amount is used.

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  69. The cause of the decoupling is the near parabolic move in silver we had (I have to admit to being pissed at myself for only selling 1/2 my AGQ) This actionis just correcting that buying hysteria and has nothing to do with the dollar, gold, or anything else. The question I posted for Gary was kind of "How long can this go on and how low can silver go with gold doing basically nothing?" I don't want to see AGQ at 190 by the time gold is oversold. I am NOT expecting or predicting that, just asking if G has thoughts about it.

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  70. IMO best way to post charts is tinypic.com

    simple, free, needs no software

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  71. Some of my buy orders getting triggered on NUGT, with more to come.

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  72. Brian,

    You follow Gary's allocation and plan religiously or do you deviate? Margin, AGQ, etc.?

    Thanks

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  73. sufficient damage on CEF, registering a BUY

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  74. TJ and St. D: Yep! tinypic.com is much easier. Thanks St. D---I will switch over.

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  75. Looks like XAU wants to kiss it's 200 MA around 205.

    Very comfortable buying in here.

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  76. Does anyone know if DGP generates a K-1, i.e is it a Limited Partnership?

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  77. D wave uglier than this.....idk

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  78. good call SB. i'm smelling a late morning reversal.

    the 5 year bond has been tracking PMS pretty well last few weeks.. it's about to break its march highs. seems those guys are expecting more QE too.

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  79. I want to buy here but that would require that I actually....y'know....look at my account.

    Not willing to take a look at this particular juncture. :)

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  80. If we don't hold 40... 36 here we come that will be ugly and in my book constitute a full blown d wave

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  81. This Brian went off margin Friday. Still fully invested though. On a swing low, it will go back on.

    DG, Instead of snide remarks, perhaps you and TZ should just put on the gloves and get it over with!

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  82. What are the technical behind a "Matthew D-Wave" in Silver? Nobody else follows a silver cycle.

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  83. thanks Aaron.. I doubt it too...

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  84. Why not a Blog fight for more action!

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  85. Nice weakness for those looking to add, IMO.

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  86. trying to buy at 39.77...will see

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  87. C'mon Brian. This is a long standing thing and is more poking fun than anything else. There are many people here who are slightly annoyed every time they read his stuff for just this reason. (I've gotten private emails on this score) Mild kidding is good to blow the steam off I think. It's just who he is and how he writes.

    TZ: If I am really out of line with the "you forgot to add the 'you moron' " stuff just let me know.

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  88. Here comes that Silver 3 handle! Panic buying turns into panic selling.

    We just need gold to confirm and we should have this behind us.

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  89. Cycle low in gold, d-wave in teh silvers

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  90. Silver breaks 40....should hit a lot of sell stops here

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  91. archrival,

    I don't believe DGP issued a k-1 to me when I traded it in the past, but you might want to check into yourself to be sure.

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  92. Poly - Silver 3 handle? Can you elaborate?

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  93. Captain has turned on the fasten seat belt sign.

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  94. Revett Minerals approved for Amex listing. Just happened today so have a look at this company quickly.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Revett-Minerals-Approved-for-iw-4129780908.html?x=0&.v=1

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  95. ...I wish I would have done some combo options instead of the deep in the money...call @ 46 and prob a put at 42 or 43... I was much more confident about us either breaking up or down big than up big...dang it...

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  96. Of course I was kidding too, but you seem to take him so seriously! Nobody ever changes, except temporarily.

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  97. "3 handle" = price beginning with 3

    personally looking for wicks around $39 before jumping in.

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  98. For those that have a lot of dry powder. The miners offer tremendous value today. I am buying some today for this final C run if we get it.

    GG June 48 call option
    GDX June 55 call option
    SLW June 35 call option

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  99. gary,

    I'd have the same question as DG about the AGQ levels you'd anticipate as gold bottoms in the cycle. Can you share your thoughts please?

    Thanks

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  100. yesterday I was hanging from the edge of a cliff, holding on to a tree branch...today...a pine needle.

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  101. @Poly,

    About your first comment about making sure your not under invested.

    I'm currently 25% in GLD, would you deploy half of the rest now in case we bottomed already? Or wait for confirmation?

    BTW I want to get some AGQ OTM calls, anyone have an idea with silver at 60 what it transalate to AGQ? (I think 500 range)

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  102. how can the d-wave get any uglier than this?

    silver down more than 25% in 3 day...in d-wave does it go down 50%?

    no wayyy

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  103. DG, I know that you are following those things... bought some Ery and Dug yesterday...wish me luck

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  104. Well the good news is we are now down almost $10 so we are 50% done this correction, another $10 and we will be at a very low risk buying opportunity at the 200dmva. Although we should get a dead cat bounce here soon.

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  105. I had GC trend line about 1525 for today, can anyone confirm or have a different number?

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  106. We are on the brink of another sell off we drop to 36 if we don't hold...I am not concerned about my long term holding but the july calls a little so if we drop to 36

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  107. Seriously, this is getting really stupid with AGQ, we didn't set stops because????

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  108. wmp: My question is less "what's expected" as it is "how do we prepare for each possibility." I like to have a plan for each realistically possible scenario. IF silver drops 15% from here while gold tries to find a bottom, what then? 20%? Is there any point at which it makes sense to act/sell/switch? Markets can do anything!

    Sophia: I am so absorbed in the PM's I am not much looking at anything else right now. Good luck though!

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  109. Wow, at these prices I'm tempted to wade into some silver but I hate buying this early in the day.

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  110. Just got a bulletin that IB is raising silver margin above exchange requirements to fall in line with the other exchanges.

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  111. "Seriously, this is getting really stupid with AGQ, we didn't set stops because????"

    Because YOU believe C waves don't correct.

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  112. And the crazy part out of all of this...the dollar hasn't even begun to rally yet.

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  113. did anyone else consider doing an option combination ? call @ 45.. put @ 42 ??

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  114. Just sold DGP and bought AGQ. Can't get worse than this, right?
    I hope...

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  115. @jlinks.

    I don't know what a comfortable position is for you.

    I know we have to be close and a a parabolic run will cure any timing. I'm looking at the 1 min closely, I feel like gold wants to make a big run at that trendline right now!

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  116. gold troll I totally agree with you..

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  117. Gary,

    Do they track a Blees rating for silver?

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  118. bought some calls June 1500
    sold back my silver bought at 39.77 at 40.17...don't feel like holding anything too long yet

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  119. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  120. I am trying to learn from this experience. There has to be a way to avoid getting hit like this. Or at least taking the whole hit. Maybe a trailing stop would have been in order once we got stretched so far above the 50dma. Sell if the last drops more than 5% in one day or similar. The problem then is knowing when to get back in. But if we would have sold out on a trailing stop and bought back in even 10% lower we would still have that 10% in our pocket assuming the C wave is still on which I believe it is.

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  121. Gary,

    At this rate in a week I will need to start living in your basement...

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  122. I got stopped out of AGQ yesterday. So I am buying back partial position here. Silver is so severely oversold it has to bounce soon. Otherwise, I guess I just became a long term investor...

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  123. nota bene: there is no advantage to buying options on derivatives. buying an AGQ call is actually at your disadvantage because they are priced without considering the decay involved.

    think about it. there is no difference between an call option that SLV goes up X than AGQ goes up 2X, except that people thing they're "leveraging up" their purchase when in fact they're most likely paying an unfair premium.

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  124. I'm not saying this is fun, but I'm still up over 25% since the beginning of the year. I've got cash and can buy when we seem to have bottomed.

    What's the panic for? Do you all think metals are done? Did I miss the memo about the US getting its finances in order. Relax.

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  125. Chalk me up in the count for believer the D wave has begun.

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  126. We're getting a lot of SMT'ers claiming Gary's sofa in the basement.

    Getting close to the end of the decline, I'd say. :)

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  127. Funmike: Great question---that's the spirit! I got partially caught too, and I should have known better. I think the lesson is the one Fubsy stated: Sell parabolas. At least take some money off the table. And NEVER buy into them. I got seduced by Gary's confidence we would trade at 50. That is not part of his cycle theory, it is not part of technical analysis, and was a guess (an educated high-odds one that didn't work, but still just a guess). Parabolas are EXTREMELY dangerous. When you see them, do something. As I said, I know this and am surprised I only switched 1/2 into DGP las Friday. This lesson is now burned into my brain and will stand me in good stead for the rest of my trading life. First time I have ever been caught in one.

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  128. Jeepers. I cannot imagine what a D-wave looks like. Can it really get worse? How? Silver goes into negative integers? People who upon a time stole into their garages in the wee hours of the morn to lovingly caress the shiny bars will be paying other people to come haul it away. It will be one click above busted snow globes, soccer trophies from the third grade, your ripped Farrah Fawcett poster, and the leisure suit your father wore to his brother's wedding in the autumn of 1974.

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  129. Sell parabolas, but especially when in double-etfs.

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  130. jlinks -- I'm the other Jennifer. I would not advise options on a leveraged etf. Barry Ritholtz once said that strategy was akin to dousing oneself with gasoline and lighting a match. Yes, it can work out well, sometimes spectacularly so. I had some AGQ puts just the other day, sold way too early, but still made a nice return. However, more often than not, you get killed. You've got extreme volatility, which you pay a huge premium for, and a double theta burn problem (decay in both the option and the underlying.) Stick to one product or the other. Best of luck.

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  131. DG, exactly. This was a good lesson learned. Maybe I'm relaxed as I sold 3/4 of my AGQ while silver was in the high 40s. I did turn a lot of that into gold, but kept some cash as well.

    Still up, lessons learned, things getting oversold. That's a good position.

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  132. It was a poor trade, full stop. You all need to move on and concentrate on the NOW. Gold is about to break trend and we are VERY near a bottom.

    You can panic, sell, complain and blame others or get to work getting it all back 2X

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  133. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  134. K I am going to go with prob only 2 people on here have any idea what a combination option strategy is...sorry but this is no correction this is a full blown wave look at the monthly.. correction that is ridiculous...

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  135. When silver was at 49.50 it was the most extended it's EVER been relative to the 200dmva at over 1.7X. In the past these parabola have ALWAYS return to below the 200dmva within a 1-2 months so people should not be stunned by this move as its just a repeat of what has happened half a dozen times since this bull market began.

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  136. A business partner of mine has a contact on the Goldman Sachs commodities desk. He was talking to his contact late last week when silver was still in the high 40s. The word from GS was that despite their firm's call to sell commodities, the commodities desk was actively looking to get long commodities on a pullback. Specifically, the contact mentioned they were buyers on a 20% drop in silver (and said Soros was too). So if what this guy said was correct, silver should have some support in this area or maybe a little below near the 50dma.

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  137. This is painful, but I don't think its max pain yet. Another 15 point drop in Gold later today taking Silver below 39 would do it.

    But I'm not banking on it. Added gold at 1525.

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  138. funmike, you have to trade the cycles and not be bummed when you miss out on profits and then you have to be able to step in and buy back when the blood is in the streets. I held this cycle and traded the last one. I like trading it better. Book profits and have more power to buy the cycle lows. If a runaway develops then you can't get hung up buying higher either.

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  139. SLV down over 3% and SLW almost flat? I'm not worried about a D-wave given that indicator. Of course, all of my SLW options look like they've been blowtorched, but I'm expecting that by end of next week I'll be sitting pretty again. Still, the emotions being displayed on this board, along with the bearish newcomers, certainly conform Gary's projections.

    Just wish I had more dry powder...

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  140. Excellent lesson from silver and Excellent experience sharing DG and funmike.

    Different in selling at 50.5 and 49.5 is not worth caught by 20% drop like this.

    Yes, we MUST take some money off the table.

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  141. Anybody doing anything, or stuck like a deer in the headlights?

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  142. sounds like reminiscence of a stock operator to me

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  143. SB,

    I bought back on when it dropped below 40 really quickly...

    Looking to add more if we tag 39.

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  144. SB,

    I bought gold at 1525 knowing well that it could go down to 1510.

    While my account will be pretty hollow considering where it was Friday at close, I will buy silver below 39, where it should be if gold continues to fall.

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  145. also, easy to write but hard to do real time.

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  146. SB,

    Couple of calls executed right @ $1,526, but besides that I'm holding back, although its getting difficult to keep holding from buying these.

    I want to see a big (nice) clean drop in gold to dump on it. A $10 drop to $1,515 or so.

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  147. silver just crashed and burned, it's on life support at 40

    if gold stays above 1515 i think we're alright.


    anyways, we knew a market correction was going to put a damper on everything stocks & commodities (markets now are very much linked correlated), so just buy some stuff at this time if you have cash.

    here you have your weakness

    buy into it, size your positions accordingly if there anymore downside left

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  148. I am seriously considering adding, maybe today.

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  149. Man it's tough spotting a bottom. Got in a few Silver futures at 40.48, went up to 41.80+, then I got stopped out at 40.40. Oh well, try again later...

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  150. SB, buying Silver futures and calls on Gold...not much, but if Silver rallies a bit I sell back until Gary says something...As for calls on Gold, I will keep for few days

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  151. Good to hear, and glad to see people take advantage of the situation!

    I must admit it looks shaky, but I've been buying as well. :)

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  152. Is this a time to buy? Or would we have to wait for the dollar to spike b4 getting into more exposure?

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  153. "I am trying to learn from this experience. There has to be a way to avoid getting hit like this. Or at least taking the whole hit. "

    Sell into strength.
    Scale out of position that are approaching historic numbers like 50 silver. To get a 25% draw down because price of Silver missed the 50 mark by .20 is a bit silly.

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  154. Shalom,

    Glad you asked. I just entered a limit order for another slug of DGP should gold hit $1510.

    I'm not even looking at silver. Gary has beaten into my head that GOLD IS THE DRIVER AND SILVER IS ITS FLIGHTY LITTLE BROTHER.

    So I'm keeping my eye on the ball--gold.

    My plan is to add silver if gold hits $1500.

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  155. SB: I am not doing anything yet. I am now unsure whether to add to my AGQ or not. I will surely buy a slug of DGP. I want to see gold oversold and we are just not there yet. I have no problem buying on the way up if it looks right.

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  156. SB, all in, nothing to do but wait for red to turn to green again. :)

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  157. auger, i think i emailed you, yahoo.ca?

    silver knife catchers: prices are looking good but i don't think there's going to be a big rush to get in. probably float around here for the rest of the week while gold catches up on the downside?

    probably it for me today have fun everyone & sorry posting so much--interesting times.

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  158. BTW Shalom, have you bought metals or just miners today?

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  159. C'mon dollar! Is this all you've got?!

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  160. New HUI and Silver trader here. This has been great! I bought the break outs on silver at 50 & the HUI at 600. I hope this works!

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  161. We'll have to see how strong the rally is (when it materializes), in order to get a better feel for the potential upside. Silver will be the tell.

    If it rallies sharply, the bull/parabola/C-wave is on, but if it slows after a day or two and doesn't cover much ground, I won't be nearly as interested and will look for the exit.

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  162. "To get a 25% draw down because price of Silver missed the 50 mark by .20 is a bit silly."

    Except this hit after hours and then only briefly. If there hadn't been the margin hikes the outcome could have been quite different.

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  163. And if miners just keep going straight down from here I'll get stopped out with a loss and look for my sofa at Chez Savage. :)

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  164. The only reason I'm not more aggressive is that I just can't see the tide turning until jobs Friday.

    The most compelling narrative is the Big Boyz flushing people out then in a final crescendo downdraft.

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  165. SB, I added to NUGT. You doing some on the jr miners, SLW?

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  166. Did we break Docs trendline?
    How close are we (in price of gold)to hitting the RSI (5) oversold region?

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  167. Trendline has broken! Cycle low WILL print, at some point.

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  168. 5 Day RSI oversold is getting kissed on /GC

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  169. i wouldn't put 100% net worth into any one trade. ie. PMs

    so if it screws up you're not 100% screwed. lol

    my TIP bonds are doing good today.

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  170. I think the bottom is in for Silver.. Gut feel. But it could also be wrong :)

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  171. catbird,

    Just NUGT, no metals or individual names yet. With the low volume it takes some attention working into a position. I have to break them up in several orders and spread them around.

    I will focus on gold more than silver, even though silver will get a monster snapback at some point. My only concern with silver is that bounces will be met with sellers before long as result of all the pain we've seen.

    This is why I think gold is the safer play, but will buy it only into an oversold situation.

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  172. ILiveinaVanDownBytheRiver

    i think you are talking about silver 40

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  173. I smell a very dirty bottom. :))

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  174. Jlinks,

    I don't see it. I have 5 day RSI at 53 now. Oversold is 30, right?

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  175. I would say Gary has set himself up an excellent sentiment machine right here called the Smart Money Tracker! And he gets people to pay him! :)

    I for one am a happy to be part of it but wow, it is interesting to watch people's emotions on this blog on days like this and on days in which it seems PMs/silver will never stop going up!

    ReplyDelete
  176. traderlady,

    No, nothing with the individual names yet, just the etf.

    catbird,

    Friday could be the catalyst and I do feel like I might be early on today's purchases. I KNOW I was early on the ones made the last several days. lol

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  177. Last time GLD was down 3 days in a row ahd SLV 4 days in a row was in January during the IT decline.

    That happened twice in the month, and each time added another day to it. So GLD was down 4 days and SLV for 5 days in a row.

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  178. Don't sweat too much over the specific names and vehicles traded, anything PM is going to move together if we're right.

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  179. catbird, I like the gold 1500 strategy.

    Here's the latest from sprott on KWN:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/3_Eric_Sprott_-_Sprott_Has_More_Physical_Silver_Now_Than_Ever%21.html

    We know we've seen the shorts jump on silver like this before. This cycle low panic selling nasty correction is exactly like Gary predicted weeks ago.

    ReplyDelete
  180. silver has hit the price range (39.60 is low of day so far) of where I'd give it high probability of a bottom. I would not like to see it go below 36.72.

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  181. Even the consistent last-place performer, SIL should work. :)

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  182. Gold is holding up better than I expected--it looked to me like 1490 was a possibility. Seems likely to me it will drop below 1519.

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  183. we are stabilizing...it might be enough to calm down all potential sellers....

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  184. Added some agq. Time will soon tell if it was wise or foolish.

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  185. The real pain for silver should appear in access today if we close here at 12:25

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  186. http://oi54.tinypic.com/2czzn8x.jpg
    5 RSI getting oversold

    ReplyDelete

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