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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

BIG MOVE COMING

Often when we see small moves in the McClellan oscillator it proceeds a large volatile move in stocks. Kind of like a spring compressing.

Since it is now very late in the daily cycle and sentiment has reached exceptionally bearish levels (especially in the Nasdaq) the assumption is that any day now the market is going to rocket higher out of the three week bull flag.




My guess is we will get some news out of Europe that they have successfully kicked the can down the road for a few more months and the market will take off.

357 comments:

  1. Nothing to say, just wanted to beat Eammon to the punch.

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  2. Futures taking a big dump....I hope the big move isn't down...

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  3. Huge volume for overnight on ES....what's going on? Market acting "flashy"

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  4. "Futures taking a big dump....I hope the big move isn't down..."


    What do you think has been happening the past 3 weeks?

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  5. crap, s n p is jumping . im to scared to buy . is that the buy signal

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  6. We need one more push lower to ease the parameters for a swing.

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  7. 790 on the Rut and 1294 on S&P are KEY levels.

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  8. Jeff, no stop on SPY but if the swing doesn't happen as hoped, I am out.

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  9. Gary,

    Hope all goes well for you tomorrow. Feel better soon.

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  10. i want to try to pick the bottom. im going for 1303 with a stop at 1290. only one contract

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  11. Eammon, Is that you? I think of you as the guy with the horses and maybe a plow, lol.

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  12. Jeff, Hope it works for you :)

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  13. ok i took the order off. ill wait for the swing. just feels like im asking to get punched in the eye for the hell of it

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  14. it worked im safe and going to bed. best plan yet =)

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  15. Hi traderlady. That's Mr O' Bama and his hurley stick

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  16. OOPs, I could not see that clearly,lol. So you are still the guy with the horses and farm,lol.

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  17. Gary

    Best wishes on your shoulder...ask the doctor when you really should be o.k. to climb...and DO NOT climb until then just because it feels ok :)

    Traderlady

    That was funny :)

    Did you know you can click on the picture, and then when it comes up you can click it again to get full size?

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  18. The doctor said I can start training when ever the pain goes away. There isn't any soft tissue damage. All he's doing is grinding down a bone spur so it should heal pretty quick.

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  19. Great---doesn't sound too bad---good luck Gary

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  20. One of my weightlifting buddies had it done and he was doing pulls the next day.

    I probably won't be climbing for the next week but I should certainly be ready for the Matterhorn in June.

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  21. Good luck to you Gary for a quick heal.

    Your post looks pretty good to me, and some around here may know I like a good bull or bear flag. Guess I'll be watching the S&P even more intently. I need something to keep me interested. I'm bored to tears.

    f

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  22. Gary, sounds real good for you. I cannot imagine you down for long.

    Alex, the full picture is only slightly bigger, probably my computer:(

    Eammon, I prefer the horses over O'Bama:)

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  23. Gary, do you anticipate any major moves happening in Gold during the 4th of July holiday weeks?

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  24. My brother had his knee replaced a week ago. Now that is pain on a plate. I'd fancy a bone spur over that any day

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  25. Futures taking a dump alright!

    Watch for a classic reversal tomorrow.

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  26. Anyone here think there could be fortunes to be made on OTM Puts on silver if it rises up with gold? Or am I going mad

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  27. Gary

    I have a friend who had it done too, and today they are so non-invasive that the healing is quick- because theres no added damage--no cutting and soon. Best wishes.

    Traderlady

    Someone taught me a pretty cool trick , because he is a computer i.t. guy, and I am definitely not.

    Pull up a picture, then press and hold the CTRL button and then the + button. Each time you hit the + button with the CTRL button held down..it zooms in.

    I almost feel like everyone knew that but me :)

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  28. Gary,
    Are you taking any MSM to speed recovery?

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  29. ** No cutting and "So on".

    Gotta start previewing it and slow down.

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  30. where is everyone watching the futures? www.CNBC.com?

    Thanks.

    and my opinion is a gap down open (shakeout weak hands) and rally up.
    By the end of the day it could be a bullish engulfing...and a great buy at the open (if you can watch things real time). I will be watching P.M. stocks intra day and will load up id conditions are right.

    (I am 70%in now)

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  31. ALEX, Cool, I got it up to half screen.Wow! Thanks, I am no techie butI can follow instructions:)

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  32. TRADERLADY

    I use it all the time now...I use it on charts like a true geek :)
    Maybe you will too -Its more of a useful trick than the buddy of mine who showed me knows!!

    86D4LIFE

    I used to lift heavy and damaged cartilage in my shoulder doing heavy benching. I was hurting for 6 months off and on and a girl I know was trying to get me to take it all the while.
    Finally I gave in, I used Glucosamine, Condroitan, and MSM (even shark cartilage) all in one dose (pills by SCHIFF)to speed up repair. It worked...however it did , as she said, take 4-6 weeks to 'kick in'.

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  33. All the futures market live.

    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

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  34. Alex, neat trick, I didn't know that one! thanks for sharing. Never know what you will learn on this site. :)

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  35. Thank you EricH (futures).

    Gary , MSM is a natural supplement that is supposed to lubricate and help cartilage heal, stay flexible, and less prone to damage.

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  36. AT EASE

    YAY, I wasnt the ONLY one! I really thought several people would say...DUH, I knew that in 5th grade :)

    and like I said, it doesnt just work on pictures, sometimes I click on an article and the print is small, so I zoom it in. oh...and CTRL - does the shrinking.

    However, sometimes you can just go to the top of the web browser and click "VIEW" , then its drop down menu has "ZOOM" in or out. I found that on my own :) I am a self taught semi-geek!

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  37. Alex,
    Good that you tried it but the skinny is you need to take it with vit C. This is not optional or else the MSM will fly right through your system. You need the vit c for your body to be able to absorb the MSM. Once you start taking it this way, the difference is almost immediate. Easily in one day. I have heard that vit E will work also, but I already take both but was using the vit c when I started on the MSM. I`ve been taking it for about 7-8 years now and the difference is just amazing.

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  38. 86d4life, may I ask you what you take the MSM + Vit C&E for? I get aches in my knees

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  39. Alex, Or you can use the shift - to make it smaller, same as using shift + to enlarge it. Found that out, once I had a huge screen pic. LOL

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  40. ERICH, Like that future site, have it bookmarked,THX.

    ALEX, Thank You, always learning:)

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  41. Gary,
    MSM; methylsulphonylmethane. I did that from memory but I think that`s right. As Alex said, a natural sulphur compound that aids healing. My understanding is it removes dead and dying cells including scar tissue and promotes new growth. The list of ailments cured with MSM is beyond belief. Where most people go wrong is they don`t take vit c with it. Those that do take the vit c swear by it. This is a really big, holy &%$## deal!! If anybody has problems with vit c, use an ester c which is low acid. I absolutely guarantee that anybody that takes the MSM properly will be amazed beyond belief in less than a week!!

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  42. Alex,

    You're probably the biggest loser I've ever encountered on any forum.

    What 40+ and is so bored, dumb (dumb people are bored) that you need to constantly be on here cheering YOURSELF on for stupid things like image zooming and posting all your buys after the fact, sometimes way after the fact.

    Do you think anyone really cares that you used to bench and tore your shoulder? Do you think anyone really cares you went to the "view" tab in your browser and discovered an alternative way to zoom? I'm pretty sure everyone that reads your posts just gets a little dumber.

    Thanks for wasting 3 minutes of my life while I casually scrolled through this information tonight sifting for anything new and possibly pertinent, but instead, per usual, I got your blabber mouth that's connected to a hollow hole.

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  43. I've Eaten Silver, you sound depressed

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  44. Eamonn,
    The MSM will do wonders for your knees. Anti-inflammatory is the official label but it primarily goes through your body, finding the worst problems first and fixing them.

    If I may way in here too; I really prefer the horses over the new guy! I would vote for the horses...........

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  45. Eamonn, how about the picture of your place. I think we would like that also.

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  46. 86d4life, thanks for that info, especially the note about the requirement for vit. c for absorption. That and platelet-rich plasma therapy should give my knees some help.

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  47. ...at ease, my place isn't fancy enough by half given all the rich smart folks here !!

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  48. Hey Eamonn,
    Drop that on your brother too and he`ll really be glad you did. This is a seriously big deal.

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  49. 86d4life, will do, thanks again

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  50. Alex,
    We all know your the man, so don`t quit posting. Your one of the best here. Thanks for all you`ve shared here.

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  51. 86D4LIFE

    Good to know.

    I actually took it with a protein shake and animal pack multivitamins, but it was 2x a day, so the other dose was with a meal.

    I thought I just had damage that was permanent, it just kept coming back. That really did seem to restore the tissue and promote healing.

    Thanks

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  52. Good luck on the surgery, Gary. I'm sure you'll be back to throwing iron around in no time. : )

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  53. Eamonn, you have a beautiful charming place. I am sure most would agree if you posted it.
    I am envious of anyone who has the place and views of the countryside you have.

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  54. Alex,
    Keep on posting, as I enjoy your info. I like sweet over sour.

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  55. 86D4LIFE

    when I posted "good to know", I meant the vit -c tip you gave me,and thx... but thanks for the encouragementtoo. I hadnt caught up that far yet, so I just reached "I EAT ANGER" s post.

    He is a drunk that goes off on here from time to time. Its a shame. We all hoped his re-hab stuck, but what can you do??

    I was just having conversation with some old friends...Markets closed, right? Oh well. Anger is
    sad.

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  56. Alex, you need to set up your subscription service. You'd make a fortune

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  57. Alex,

    I just pointed out the other day you shouldn't be giving Gary shit for adding a premium service. You were whining that things have changed, and obviously, you must have lost money, possibly not realized, but for whatever reason you decided, seemingly, to direct that anger at Gary.

    It was consuming the blog and wasn't producing anything valuable, you and a few others continuing to go on and on about Gary's services as if they were decreed or something.

    It is very simple, you pay for a service if you think it is worthwhile, and don't if not. This seem complicated for you and I needed to try and have this stop.

    You then attached me, and continue to do so, so I might as well provide a decent analysis on your being.

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  58. time out, time out, everyone back to their corners

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  59. You're a hypocrite, you were the one angry the other day, did you already forget????

    Whatever, it goes nowhere arguing, but please be sensible and direct in your future posts, for that many more people read here than you'd ever imagine.

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  60. Alex,
    Yeah, I didn`t realize that. Booze can make even good people do bad things.

    I agree, when things slow down here, nights and weekends, it`s nice to have a chat with some of the people we spend so much of the business day with. Actually pretty cool I think. i think this is a pretty neat group of people overall.

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  61. When is the next jobs report due for the $ to turn...June 3rd?

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  62. Eamonn,
    Now that`s a horse I would vote for!! Thanks Buddy!

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  63. I assume then everyone thought I was mad when I suggested OTM Puts on silver if it rose up with gold. I'm checking myself in next week

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  64. EAMONN

    Too Kind , Thanks. I'm pretty happy with this arrangement. I make a living , I've met many cool people here to share with, and by adding Gary's cycles, it improved my timing ...when to be real confident and aggressive (bottoms)- and when to be more cautious.

    I used to trade alone. Thanks Gary , for the blog and
    friends ! :)

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  65. 86d4life, those horses are beautiful. Pure pets. And very smart

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  66. Eamonn,
    Maybe you and Clark can get the volume discount!

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  67. Alex,
    When things get slow in the summer, do you spend much time day trading/scalping? It seems that would be right up your alley.

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  68. ALEX, I'm not being kind at all - if you set up a site I'd subscribe and wouldn't think twice about it. Those skills you have take years of experience to get to the way you have them

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  69. Alex, Nothing you said the other day was out of line as it was concerning a question I had and Gary hinted it was in his other service. And you questioned that reply. The discussion then was about the change in model porfolio. Which I believe Gary has successfully now changed it to list the model along with trades/triggers link. Nothing more. So wouldn't even bite.

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  70. EATEN

    HUH??? Really?

    Then let me apologize formally. I do not remember ever attacking Gary, I dont know why I would.

    I do remember you attacked me (like tonight) and said a bunch of stuff that I didnt understand. So I said you must be drunk. There was a guy on here "Robert" that was drunk and really attacked Gary in Dec...someone emailed me as you wrote and told me you were Robert , a nasty drunk.

    If you are not, I apologize for repeating that.

    Good enough? If you met me in person, you wouldnt see anything vicious or offensive. we'd maybe sit down , have a bite to eat , and a few laughs.
    seriously not sure why this has come about...but you say I attacked Gary and you...

    I am sorry if I did that. I dont want you to be offended by me. I did call you a drunk...I apologize for that. Not much else I can say bro.

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  71. ATEASE

    I didnt even remember that , but your right! you asked a question and i thought it went mis understood, so I tried to explain your thoughts and then got attacked.

    It was odd.

    oh well , and EAMONN...why pay for my trades when I'm more than happy topost and attach charts here? then depending on where Gary thinks we are in cycle timing...we can accept a trade set up or not.

    Thanks again, but I'm just happy sharing here.

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  72. ALEX, that's fine for me - a free service! I'm cheap!
    I would say that many many people, maybe 90% of those who have tried, have failed to do successfully what you do

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  73. Alex,
    Sometimes out of the blue an attack occurs here, which always seems unfounded. I think best solution is exactly what you did, sorry if I offended you and leave it there.

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  74. SO DID I!! LOL for 2 yrs, then you give up or learn from mistakes get better.

    Blogger 86d4life said...

    Alex,
    When things get slow in the summer, do you spend much time day trading/scalping? It seems that would be right up your alley.

    Yes, but its not so easy...I hate getting in and getting stopped out...it becomes harder to find 'set ups' that I specifically look for.
    It really comes in handy during the B-Wave and summer times though. Sideways action with no given market direction is TOUGH to make money. I need to learn a better way..I'm working on that now. we'll see :)

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  75. Alex, You are not mistaken about Robert and Silver being one in the same. Instead of giving something useful to the group, he comes on here hammering whoever is the target dujour. Gary was the target when Robert trashed his account. Now it is you. He claimed he quit drinking awhile back, but I have my doubts. His diatribes are uncalled for and you had nothing to apologize about.

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  76. Overnight action on the equity markets doesn't seem too good for our little plan.... Should we cut? Are we going back to March lows?

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  77. BRIAN
    Thanks man, appreciate that. Its kind of whatever now.

    wasnt it You that traded many of the same miners as me? Was it you that had the Rare Earths equities and everytime I looked at a good chart set up..you'd come on and say the stock looked good before I could post it?

    maybe not, its been a while...but

    Thanks again

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  78. Alex, Yes that was me. We seem to be on the same page quit a bit!

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  79. SOPHIA

    I am thinking that a gap down at the open isnt necessarily bad, as long as it reverses and goes up as the day goes by.

    If not..we would consider SDS or DXD etc, but...F.W.I.W. I believe it will gap down, shake out many, and rise up.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/WOqTnD4G

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  80. Yes Brian...

    Definitely I remember that I would draw up a chart of a miner ...and you would post a recommendation before me about it-lol

    Some good little rocketships :)

    I am going to sleep now..goodnight and good trading tomorrow!

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  81. I'm too young to have joint pain. MSM is still the mainstream media as far as I'm concerned ;)

    Gary, hope your 'procedure' goes well (sounds better than 'surgery'). What are your thoughts regarding a play in NQ or TF, instead of or in addition to ES? I like the technical setups posted springheel_jack's blog (linked here yesterday).

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  82. Also, when did the current ES daily cycle start? 3/17 or 4/18?

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  83. Alex:

    Like others, I 'd like to thank you for all your posts. While many of us have questions about style and trade, I think most everybody welcome those when they are said in a civilized manner.

    Silver: there is a "Find" feature that would allow you to find only the post you'd want to read... No need to weed through all posts, though I enjoy them all. Nice to see friendship being formed here...

    Alex: can you post what you have in your 70%? no need for allocation, I'd like to just see the names. Thanks very much.

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  84. Wonder if Gary's coil scenario is playing out?

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  85. gary, good luck!Come back soon! :-)

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  86. ALEX,

    Thanks for your help and your chart. Let's hope it reverses, I bought yesterday only but still it is painful...

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  87. Alex,
    I didn't know how to do that nifty zoom trick either, so thanks. Pretty cool!
    I'm fairly new here (Feb.) but must say that I have always found your posts to be very helpful and very cordial, even friendly in nature. I don't know why SILVER feels the need to attack you in the wee hours when the market is closed. Let it run off your back.
    (by the way, you and your wife make a stunning couple.)

    I use MSM in cream form. I heard about it on a radio show where they were interviewing the Denver Bronco team trainers. They said that is what they use on the Broncos for sore muscles, aches & pains. I have found nothing better for immediate relief of lower back pain when I've been standing too long, or doing stoop work in the garden.
    There is no smell whatsoever and it helps right away. I'll be sure to try the tablet formula (with Vit.C) also.

    Eamonn, you are in Ireland, right? What did you think of the Queen's visit, and Obama's?
    I saw that Obama's armored "Beast" bottomed out when leaving the embassy. Ha ha ha!
    What a putz! I vote for seeing your farm also!

    Okay, night all. Hope we get the big reversal tomorrow.

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  88. Alright finally the gap fill in the AM. Will be buying as soon as it hits.

    Alex, you are one of the few that when you post, everyone reads. Keep bringing it.

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  89. On a Money-Risk topic, I have been stating repeatedly the nuke incident at Fukushima is MUCH MUCH WORSE than the MSM reported, that TEPCO would reveal, than any talking head would conjecture or project (save the left wing guys who got it right from nearly day 1).

    Nuke contamination is not about killing 50,000 Japanese. It's about starting a mutation chain in the ocean which is unstoppable and about which humans know very little.

    It is about microscopic plutonium and its ilk now and about to float around the world. (Inhale deeply).

    It's about the retrieval of meltdown rods and melt piles of extremely dangerous active fission material.

    And I can't yet see what's next, but as I said a few weeks ago, much worse is coming.

    Consider the quote below to be news that deserves front page, but now is backwater and barely noticed.\\http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/asiapacific/news/article_1641292.php/High-levels-of-radioactivity-above-crippled-Japanese-reactor




    "The operator on Sunday started to measure the level of radioactive substances above reactors number 1 to 4 and detected 360 becquerels of caesium-134 per cubic metre above reactor 1, where most of the fuel rods are believed to have melted, public broadcaster NHK reported.
    TEPCO also found 7.5 times the 50-bequerel limit of caesium-134 above reactor 4, which has no fuel in its core. The substance was believed to have come from the fuel storage pool and reactor number 3, NHK said.
    The company plans to cover the reactor buildings with polyester sheets to prevent the further dispersal of radioactive substances."

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  90. Slumdog, do you have specific information not available to the media?

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  91. Gary,

    Looks like we got the SPX push lower overnight. Should be up, up & away from here!

    ;)

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  92. Eamonn,

    You're getting emotionally married to that Silver put trade. Just wait and see, it's just one of many possible setups and it's some way away. Getting married to an idea will force you to over trade it or greatly miss time it due to impatience.

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  93. ckpc,
    Roger that on the MSM cream. I use a lotion that is a proprietary blend made for a friend of mine. An emu oil base(which is a penetrating oil) with MSM and glucosamine. The healing power of this stuff is next to unbelievable. Many winters I spend trapping beaver through the ice(northern minn.) and it`s pretty brutal on hands, cracking,chapping,bleeding. Real painful. This is the only stuff that keeps me in the game. Look for it at www.spiritspas.com. Carrol, the owner, is a great lady that loves to help people feel better and it comes from the heart.

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  94. wow i should have got the 1303 sigh

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  95. 86d4life, interesting. Why do you trap beavers?

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  96. Damn Silver really up hard again.

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  97. Eamonn,
    Mainly fur, but the bodies always get used too. I make fur garmentry and beaver is some of the best.

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  98. Eamonn, Up and see I missed much on the blog. I love horses and the serenity of beautiful open space.
    I am sure you have your paradise:)

    Alex, You are the man :)

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  99. 86d4life, you sound like one of these folks that's really good with your hands

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  100. GS Commodities Call: "After the correction, a more bullish trajectory for commodity prices" Wednesday 25 May at 15:00 GMT / 10:00 EST / 22:00 HKT / 23:00 JST

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  101. Bob loves Hawaii, could I shoot you a mail?

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  102. HKC

    Sorry I missed your post last night, I had already gone away.

    my 70% consists of AG, EXK, MFN, RIC, and PIR (that one was random haha)


    (just understand that SILVER may be quite short term , and if one stock acts incorrectly or lags too long, I cut it loose and get into a better set up)so this 70% can change .

    I thought yesterday NG and CDE looked promising too.

    CKPC,and Wav Ridah and as usual our kind traderlady ... thx for the kind words --- it was , ahhh, interesting? :)

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  103. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  104. Added to current AG position at $19.50. opened with strong volume and gapped over the downtrend line.

    Watch any silver stock purchases as Silver approaches $40 to $42 area., but so far volume on AG and EXK looks strong.

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  105. ALEX, the EXK looks good. I got some in April after you turned me on to it. Sold most at the beginning of the month, got more on Thursday...

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  106. Little Resistance Level Here on SLV Silver ....Gap Window:

    http://screencast.com/t/vzev2WMY

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  107. CMT

    Awesome. I know most were avoiding the silvers, but the set ups looked good. I also loaded up on exk and Ag last wk and added since then. Also added RIC which has done well , and bought HMY.

    I musty say...my 'gold' stocks go up 2% and silvers still 6-8%.

    My HMY is down today. hhmmm.

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  108. BAC, GS holders are so pathetic

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  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  110. Is Gary still not touching SLV or GLD for another 2-3 years

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  111. Gann, another great chart! thanks

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  112. Eamon, sure. robertkudlaatcoxdotnet

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  113. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/05/spy-ready-to-rumble.html


    My view on SPY.

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  114. BOBLH

    "view on the spy"...Nice!
    thx

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  115. Chance for trend day after ES volume buying surge at 10:35 turned the ship around.

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  116. Bob LH, I like your view of the SPY!

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  117. hey Bob,

    How r u gonna play your positions when spy hits 134-134.5

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  118. I purchased more RIC today. I believe this stock is going to $10.00

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  119. When silver popped over that resistance at 37.50, it did it with conviction.

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  120. Sad day for CNBC. Mark Haines passed away. I always liked his straight shooting...he was a lovable curmudgeon.

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  121. Sold part of my ES here...

    Nice blog BLH

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  122. Silver pops 4.5% and no one says a word? I guess everyone got spoiled in April, huh?

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  123. no cmt no one is touching slv for another 2-3 years so they don't care... lol...

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  124. I couldn't take watching SLV gaining over 3.00% and GLD gaining 0.37% anymore, so I bought some SLV ATM calls this morning.

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  125. Gary= Jim crammers illegitimate child with Lyndsey lohan.. A lot of huffing and puffing and no responsibility taken...Anyone remember Jimmy's lehman brothers call the day before it sank...

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  126. Gary's only responsibility is to give us his opinion. Each of us is responsible for the choices we make. Personally, I am amazed when I take a look at how much I have made from following Gary's posts.

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  127. This is how I looked at RIC. It has a target of $10 if Gold/Silver runs well , and possibly more if this megaphone pattern fullfills...but I dont want to guess at this point..

    Click on chart to enlarge

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RXnPmpHN

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  128. rick or should I say Gary...ya,, ok,, sure. Rick if you are a real person and not gary the money you made was like going to a casino and making money. If you follow Gary's advice you will soon loose it..

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  129. Gary's having surgery this morning, it would be kinda hard for him to post and get operated on at the same time, I think the doctors are a little funny when it comes to that.

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  130. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  131. Gary,
    Mahalo for emphasizing the SPY gap. I used it as my buy point and its worked perfectly so far.

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  132. ..It sure is funny all the google blogger millionaires that made their money off of gary. They all like to chime in on Que too... when you ask about this blog site? Just saying...

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  133. I'm going to add GLD here. For the Canadians out there, CGL.TO horrible volume and spread so I'm just going to buy GLD and convert CAD to USD.

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  134. Matthew, take a hike, nobody wants to hear a baby whine because they blew their account. Matthew or whoever you were previously, before creating yet another alias.

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  135. Matthew, how much did you lose?

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  136. Ryan, I added long gold positions about right there as well. It made a small bounce off the 1525 area, so I'm optimistic.

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  137. Ryan, I just added to GLD, also, in 2 accounts.

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  138. Yeah POLY in regards to Matt. Gee, ignore button again.
    Another Matt just needing attention.LOL

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  139. does today constitute a swing low on S&P?

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  140. I guess Robert and Silver has now changed his name to Matthew.....

    If you have nothing constructive to say, just go away.

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  141. UUP Chart Possible Inverse:

    http://screencast.com/t/rns322AG

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  142. Traderlady and CMT,
    Thanks for the update, good to know others are adding here as well.

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  143. Ryan, if you want to avoid the exchange, open a USD margin account, keep your CADs and purchase in USDs in your margin account.

    Anyone looking at SLV puts ? They are pretty cheap for july. Opened a position of the July 33$s. Also had to take a position in SPY as it seems a low risk setup

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  144. Done, i don't think today form a swing low cause today sp gets lowest level.At the moment tomorrow sp should trade above 1322,20 to have a swing low.

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  145. Pullbacks of course can be buying opportunities, but is anyone troubled by Gold's action? Past 2 days it has made big run ups early only to pull back quickly.

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  146. Eamonn,

    I, for one, loved your picture of our President. Wish I could have been in Moneygall to share in a perfectly pulled pint of Guinness.
    Heck any reason to be in Ireland is a good one to me.

    Now, back to business. Is anyone holding AGQ?

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  147. Peter,
    Thanks I do have a US Margin account, I just don't want to get hit with exchange if I happen to need it back in CAD. Are you long spy? I'm thinking of adding to that as well.

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  148. piss off mathew nobody wants you around here, start your own blog .

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  149. Ryan, thats the thing, you wont get hit with the exchange. Keep your CADs in your CAD account, buy US Stocks on margin in your USD account. The only time you will take a hit on the exchange, is IF you lose money on your USD trades, then you will have to transfer CADs into that account. If your USD stocks go up, then you will have US funds in that account.

    Yes, right now long SPY will wait and seewhat happens tomorrow, and started a position in SLV puts.

    Also long some JRs ..

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  150. GANN

    Quick question about your chart .

    Thanks for posting it and it is thought provoking IF the ouitcome affects gold/silver.

    My question...on the left shoulder , you put the neckline from the top of the candles daytime high (tail) , but on the right shoulder, the neckline is drawn to the candle body, ignoring the daytime high (tail).

    I would imagine you need to go body to body or tail tip to tail tip? I am not sure which though...I use day high to day high. It would affect the closing price you mention, right?

    Not nit-picking, but you bring up a good point with the dollar (UUP)and i just was wondering what you think.

    Thanks

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  151. Hotrod:

    I'm nothing but troubled for the last few weeks. ;)

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  152. Peter,
    Sorry I should of explained it better. I mean in case in an emergency I need to change back the USD to CAD and the rate is not favorable (although I've never had to do that). But you're right, it's way better having separate accounts. I'm still holding underwater spy positions and seems to be quite low risk now to add more but I'll just watch and see.

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  153. i bought some agq yesterday and added more today.
    202 target short term.

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  154. Hi Alex.

    Head n Shoulders and Inverse H&S ARE at times tricky,in regards to the Neckline,Sometimes you could use the Body of the Candle , and at times the High could be Used,My good friend Jeff Copper always tells me.The market is Not a Fine Swiss Watch.And at time one could/should use a Crayon and not a Pencil.

    So the Inverse H&S, I POINTED OUT IS Valid, With A Question mark as per the Neckline ...But , should this Level Hold as Support,The odds increase that this Pattern is Valid..

    Something to watch...

    Good luck to All,

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  155. I had sold my AGQ at 173, then I bought a 10% position back at 172.7 Before the close on Friday because of the coil and strength in gold. Just sold AGQ, missed out on a lot, but still was a good trade. My original thesis had been that silver is in a sideways consolidation and the dollar is extremely bullish. I was looking for the gap at SLV 37 to get filled and hit the declining 20 DMA, which it has and I am opening a position in DITM long dated SLV puts. Even though the dollar and metals can go up together, I think the dollar is going higher after this breather. Gold is a champ and still strong, but could be a long trap. I think silver is broken and it's moves up have been gaps. Not necessarily a long term hold, looking for a move to 28-33 range on the dollar moving up.

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  156. Cory,

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    What about the SPY? Nearly impossible for the SPY to continue with strength with bullish and rising USD, correct?

    Thanks.

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  157. Hotrod, that's gold's character IMO. Up early, drop back to test and then spend the day crawling back 50% of it.

    Gold likes to drop sharply but crawl higher. A week or so ago everybody was talking failed cycle, gold touched $1,470's. Without fanfare, it's crawled to $1,530.

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  158. Thanks GANN360

    I will use a crayon the thickness of both candle tails, and lay it right across the candle body :)

    Nice clear charts, thanks for sharing

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  159. $1527 is like quicksand for gold. Just when you're hopeful for a breakout it gets sucked back down.

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  160. "If" one were optimistic at this point (which is a stretch given what is going on), wouldn't today's action be a positive where we have a lower low and a narrower trading range?

    "If" we are to get a swing tomorrow, we would just need a close in the green today and then a positive day tomorrow, correct?

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  161. I am gone for the rest of today...good day all.

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  162. i posted this chart on Silver SLV....May1st..

    http://screencast.com/t/mB2FK4yru0b



    i do alot of Cycle work, Which i share with the Public on Twitter ( i am Gann360 ) and i had a confluence of Cycles hitting Early May..as a Possible Meaningful top of some kind ,in Silver,,but it was hard to say ,,if we were going to get a 3%-5% pullback or more.or maybe Nothing, as there is No Guarantees in Charting.. But there was enough Red Flags .imo to step aside , and wait and see, if a reverse would happen,,,

    I was not short ,on that Friday,, did not want to be Caught in a Gap Up,,,i thought the Odds were good for a Possible Pierce of the High's and than a Quick reversal, but the Gap never Happened , as the Markets wanted to Trap the Longs , and keep the Shorts waiting for a Bounce that never Happened as well.

    Gary is very good at Ready the Cycles of Gold /Silver..Which i try to bring in to my Analysis ,,,i have the next Confluence of Cycles Hitting July 2011,So if i get this right, i am thinking we may bounce around , side ways to up til early june, followed by a Sharp selloff to mid July...

    Anyways lets take it 1 step at a Time,,,i have learned to respect the Markets , the Hard way,,

    Good luck

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  163. gan360, good advice. we can see targets and make forcasts but respect the markets. there are no guarantees this comes to technicals/or cycles.

    i was a little surprised by the upside today, was expecting a little more downside 1311 seem to be when they said that's enough bleeding.. haha

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  164. GLD DAILY Channel:

    interesting i just noticed we hit 61.8% Fib , from recent Pivot High to Low


    http://screencast.com/t/AzwiwArDTn

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  165. Any special meaning to the 61.8% mark?

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  166. Yes, Often- But not All the time... 61.8% Fib Level could be ! a Reversal Point, and seeing that Gold Tagged that Level and Might be leaving a Tail on a Daily Candle ,
    Suggests Caution Here.if your long....imo.But lets see how we close...

    i have no Position ,i was Long AGQ AND SOLD yesterday...at this point , i will wait n see if we continue Higher or reverse ,

    i would love to see GOLD/SILVER Rally INTO EARLY June.

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  167. SLV has seemed to play with the 20DMA both up and down for a quite a while now. The converging 20DMA and 50DMA on UUP is interesting. There are so many ways this could go. I miss the Old Turkey days...

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  168. GLD and SPY are number 1 and 2 on the SOS page @ WSJ.

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  169. Yes, but they are modest SoS numbers. I don't believe position on the list matters.

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  170. one little thought for Gary who is probably surrounded by people in white blouses at the moment....

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  171. " NJ said...
    GLD and SPY are number 1 and 2 on the SOS page "


    Lots of flippers these days, but if the market keeps going up from here, the buyers will have to come in..

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  172. about 2 weeks ago i mentioned a little junior - RIO.V , that was holding up well in the sell off . Wondering if anyone bought a position ? Its had quite a move today, i am guessing based on an analyst target of 5.75$ CDN ... Did anyone jump on at that time ?

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  173. As far as technicals go, I see a bull flag on UUP and a bear flag on the Euro. Still in cash.

    I will probably initiate a position in SSO with a swing low. So, a reading in the near future above the high of today would get me in. But only with enough to keep me interested.

    f

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  174. I'm referring to a swing low in the S&P in my previous post.
    f

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  175. Yes, thinking of Gary, Thanks Gary... everything is popping Green! As you called it. :)

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  176. ALEX,

    I would like to thank you. I was long NSQ last night and had left a stop order overnight. It was missed by 0.5 point!! Then when I woke up an saw your chart, I cancelled it...and now I am back in the green!
    Thanks for giving me the strengh to go thru the day with that position

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  177. Well fubsy...we finally have different positions. I am long a lot of gold and a lot of stock ETF's (SPY, QQQ, IYT). Too much stuff lined up for me to sit out, though I see where you are coming from.

    For example (from sentimentrader.com):

    "This is 6th time since '85 that >37% of newsletters were looking for a correction. Next 3 months, S&P was up every time, avg +10.3%."

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  178. DG,
    I think Sentiment Trader is a tool I should start using. How much is a subscription?
    f

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  179. He comps me the service so I don't really know :-)
    I'm sure it is easy to find on his website (I bet it's about $200/year, so modest).

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  180. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  181. f: Let me know if/when you get it and i will "show you around."

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  182. " NJ said...
    GLD and SPY are number 1 and 2 on the SOS page "


    I've been watching this closely for well over a year and can say with little doubt that this has had next to no predictive value. Especially when the numbers have been $30m, like today. A big number is $500m

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  183. Ok, I'm going to bare my soul here. Please don't beat it too badly. I got burned on AGQ like most, and when I saw silver freefalling, switched over to ZSL. It literally immediately went the other way and silver began climbing again (about 2 weeks ago). At this point I am so far underwater I can't even see the top. Do I cut bait yet again and take a HUMONGOUS loss or does anyone out there think if I wait long enough (hopefuly not too much longer) silver will begin to decline again. The only reason I hung on this long was because I kept reading silver was going to take another nasty turn south. And please no lectures on ZSL, I realize it was a huge mistake. Just freaking out a little here and could use some advice.

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  184. Thanks Rapper, Cory, Gann


    Daniele, what is your plan?

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  185. Cut it now, IMO. Stop the bleeding and take a breath, now.

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