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Monday, May 23, 2011

Portfolio change

A portfolio change has been added to the website.

243 comments:

  1. Thanks Gary.
    Just to make sure, stops are out on S&P, right?

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  2. Thanks Gary.

    Just curious.. is the SPY stop still valid, or did you remove it?

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  3. Damn, gold just bounced, hope it goes lower.

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  4. New Poster, subscriber for a few months:

    @Sophia - S&P has a stop posted in the premium site; am I missing something? The question is: the pre-market took out the SPY and S&P stops, does this mean Gary is out?

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  5. This is what is posted in the stops section. Notice the bold section.

    "Stops for SPY will be a break below the daily cycle low at $132 (1318 on the SPX) OR THE NEXT PIVOT DOWN IF THE MARKET STILL HAS ONE MORE DIP BEFORE A FINAL DAILY CYCLE LOW"

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  6. Looks like a clean break of the bull flag for the dollar to me. It should get close to the 200dmva over the next few days.

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  7. As per yearsturday discussion, there are no stops for SPY...waiting(per Gary)for the next pivot down to place stops...

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  8. Gold up 9 EURO, it's being bought. Dollar up substantially, knocking $13 of the $US gold price, so it's still hanging in there.

    Gary, are seeing this final SPY and Gold run in correlation with a dollar declining into a cycle low or do you think they are fairly unrelated at this point, i.e each just completing their respective cycles?

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  9. Gold and silver both had a clean break of their bear flags and it led to nothing.

    The dollar is about to run into big resistance in the form of the prior cycle top at 76.50. Not to mention it's starting to get late in the daily cycle. I think a tag of the 200 DMA is probably a stretch for this daily cycle.

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  10. I think currencies are always related but sometimes they don't matter for periods of time.

    Gold is probably telling us that this mess is just going to initiate even more printing.

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  11. "Looks like a clean break of the bull flag for the dollar to me. It should get close to the 200dmva over the next few days."

    I continued to think the play was getting into dollar correlated investments on any pullback. Not sure why anyone is messing with the stock market at this stage of the game. 'If' the dollar did form it's 3 year cycle low a few weeks back, the upside in the stock market is very limited.

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  12. And if one believe the 3 year cycle low isn't in, then GOLD is the place to be. Currently a move from 1510 to 1600 would be about 6%. A 6% move from 1330 on S&P would be north of 1,400.

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  13. SPY down sharply. Gold red. HUI green.

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  14. thanks Gary! just lifted some calls Jun NSQ for a quick in/out

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  15. "And if one believe the 3 year cycle low isn't in, then GOLD is the place to be. "

    Two points to consider, both long term considerations.

    1. The gold bull is maturing, meaning it is slowly gaining wider attention and audience. It's going to start moving quicker, faster and longer while the dips will be sharper but bought quickly.

    2. This has moved from a household/corporate credit crises to a public/sovereign debt crises and pretty much the entire developed world has serious debt and lack of growth problems. So even if the dollar is still a "safe-haven", it could be of little relevance to gold, as the dollar might just be considered the best of a basket of putrid currencies.

    Look at how gold reacted and performed in Jan-April 2009 during that final leg down for equities, I expect that type of performance during the next leg of this crises.

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  16. Yep I read the stops.. still not clear. The report says no stops. Stops page says $132 or next pivot.

    SPY broke $132 so my stop was triggered right at open.

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  17. can I ask you Poly, how old are you and how long you traded for? You seem to have a very relaxed but accurate sense of the markets which makes me think that you have been trading for quite some time....

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  18. Thanks for the explanation Driven. Unfortunately I got shaken out.. Probably best to wait for cycle anyhow. Market is chopping..

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  19. "says $132 or next pivot."

    Next pivot. <--- This could be dangerous. Everyone should understand their own risk tolerance. I doubt we'll get another flash crash, but even a multi-day sell off to cap the end of QE2 (next week) might be something to consider.

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  20. Gold and dollar strength in tandem often happens (at this time last year for instance) although dollar weakness with gold strenght are the most common. However, dollar strength together with strong equities almost never happens. A $ rally almost invariably implies a Sp500 dip. Therefore, when the $ broke up from the bullflag on friday, an alternative would have been to exit any Spy longs before the close.

    Looks like a head and shoulder on the 4-hours SP500 futures chart with neckline broken. Target 1275-1280.

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  21. Gary,
    Did you have anyone involved in the storms in Mo. last night? Very horrendous situation.

    At Ease; welcome home.

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  22. I'm not sure I've ever seen intraday charts patterns work. If one shortens the timing duration enough they can find just about any pattern they want.

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  23. Apparently a lot of folks think alike. GLD calls are pretty pricey this AM.

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  24. Sophia, you could shoot me an email if you like, from profile.

    Cheers.

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  25. EricH:

    "Not sure why anyone is messing with the stock market at this stage of the game. 'If' the dollar did form it's 3 year cycle low a few weeks back, the upside in the stock market is very limited."

    I think that was Gary's position until a week or two ago and I don't know what has fundamentally changed. In fact the dollar is coming out of the low so that would seem to strengthen the case for avoiding equities.

    Eamonn, you finally gave in!

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  26. The rational behind the SPY position has always been that it is due for a daily cycle low.

    Now we can add extreme sentiment to the picture.

    And we now have a large gap on the Q's that will need to fill.

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  27. Thanks 86d4life, exhausted and happy to be home. Yes, was thinking the same thing, MO took a bad hit.

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  28. Gary likes Trader Vic's books.
    He has an interview talking metals with Turk here:

    www.goldmoney{PUTdotHERE]com/video/trader-vic-interview.html

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  29. Plus if the market closes here it will drive the 5 day RSI into oversold level. And as long as this holds into the close we will almost certainly end up with a 90% down volume day.

    These are all things that tend to occur at daily cycle lows.

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  30. Well, the USD tipped its hand today, giving us a right translated Daily Cycle. I sold my pittance of EUO a few minutes ago at 18.00. Now, I'll wait for the dollar to give us a correction and will buy EUO, DUG, and SKF on the dollars Swing Low Reversal.

    I think I'll follow the model portfolio into GLD or DGP, but I'm wondering whether GLD is operating in sync with SPY anymore. I'm suspecting that Gold is trading in tandem with USD due to EU concerns. Once the EU announces some resolution to Greece, I wonder whether the USD and Gold will correct together.

    Not as clear to me as before.

    f

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  31. Gold is warning of storms approaching.

    90% down days often trigger a good 3-9 day rally, perfect timing for a cycle low, as per Gary.

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  32. Considering the dollar is up strong today and equities are down hard its pretty good action in the PMs. Today is definitely a "risk off" day and yet the PMs are holding up well including PM stocks.

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  33. Looking at Gold's daily cycle, it needs to top 148.19 on GLD to be rt translated. I guess my tactic will be to wait for the rt trans on GLD, and then buy into a correction (daily cycle low) using the swing reversal there as Gold is getting toward the second half of its cycle, as well. I just don't feel that compelled to be involved here.

    Not enough reward to risk.

    f

    f

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  34. I'm thinking SSo on the SPY swing is an easy low risk position.

    f

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  35. www.bloomberg{PUTdotHERE]com/news/2011-03-29/no-one-cries-for-argentina-embracing-25-inflation-as-fernandez-leads-boom.html

    The first duty of a central banker is never to tell the truth (as one of ours has said before.)

    Read what is going on there (and realize it's probably coming here soon enough.)

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  36. Fubsy: I will be selling my tiny EUO position as well today or tomorrow. I bought a little SPY and GDXJ and plan to add. Turnaround Tuesday? Bad Monday's after OpEx tend not to recover.

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  37. Gary,

    You've been telling us for months to stay away from trading the stock market because its dangerous. Now you are trying to trade for a bounce when the dollar is rallying and the chance seems to be much much higher that the end of the bull is near. What is different now than a few months ago that makes the trade attractive?

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  38. Fubsy,

    I like your idea of buying SSO on an SPX swing low.

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  39. Anybody here know of a good (free) way to find overbought/oversold ETFs?

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  40. An impending daily cycle low and the fact that I think we are now in an environment where we will have to trade shorter swings.

    The day's of holding Old Turkey for big moves are probably gone for a while.

    I'll take a 4-5% swing in the stock market when the odds are on my side just as easily as one on gold.

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  41. I meant that a hs formed on the es mini (and the Spx) on the 4-hour chandles chart since 17 of April, target 1280. Seems that the es mini is bouncing from top to bottom in a downward channel, now approaching the bottom of the channel (at around 1308).

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  42. What’s Really Behind Rising Margin Requirements For Commodity Futures

    http://etfdailynews.com/2011/05/19/etf-investors-whats-really-behind-rising-margin-requirements-for-commodity-futures-slv-agq-zsl-uso-erx-ery/

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  43. Catbird -- 1) try running a screen for RSI < or > 20/80 on a bunch of ETFs, or subscribe to Crowder Options free email/free 30 day service.

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  44. Support on the S&P 1308 - below that watch out...

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  45. Gary,

    At the bottom of a D-Wave do you consider buying long dated call options on say GLD. I've never purchased such long options but I was just looking at GLD Jan 2013 150's going for $16.65

    Is something like that stupid?

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  46. Haven't we seen enough times how big money breaks support to draw in the technical retail trader only to then reverse?

    This is why I trade based on cycles and sentiment.

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  47. At the d-wave bottom you don't need to go out that far. 3 or 4 months should be plenty.

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  48. Gary,

    $SPX broke the so-called Jackson-Hole trendline today, the uptrend that started when Bernanke announced QE2. Isn't that likely to bring in a lot of selling undercutting the likelihood of a bounce?

    Best
    Le Fou

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  49. Gary-
    Based on cycle work, is there any reason why (or why not) this SPX intermediate cycle would hold above the prior mid-cycle low of 1292? OR is it a matter of duration more than anything.

    Thanks

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  50. I would say the mid cycle point is irrelevant, but should provide plenty of technical resistance. Oversold technical and timing band for a cycle low would be more of a reason why it would hold, but then again, it's just probability.

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  51. When was the last time silver traded sideways for so long like this?

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  52. Gary, did you buy GLD already? we didnt get down to 1500 yet did we?

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  53. If we close down here do we also have a BB crash trade signal?

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  54. Le Fou,
    Like i said earlier I don't trade based on charts. All I know is that the daily cycle low is now due and sentiment has reached bearish levels that will eventually power a sharp snapback rally.

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  55. Yes the BB crash is often seen at daily cycle lows also.

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  56. BTW this is a new intermediate cycle the current daily cycle low should define the trend line for this intermediate cycle.

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  57. Big gap down open as well for SPY.

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  58. S&P and a number of indexes already broke the trend line from September 2010 lows. This is the same trend line that the market bounced off of last week.

    If it closes at the lows today, i can see a test of 1294-1298 tomorrow. A break below that and i can't see how it won't test the 200 dma at 1240-1250 (also Japan Tsunami lows).

    So the initial entry was try to catch a 5% move to the upside, but to potentially take a 6% drawdown first (no stops) and HOPE for a 13% bounce in the summer months with NO QE, i can't see how that can be a good trade.

    Then again, this is just my own opinion. :)

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  59. I hear the same rational at every bottom, no matter whether it's stocks, or gold. It's why retail traders almost never catch these lows.

    You just aren't going to catch bottoms with charts. Bottoms never look like bottoms in real time.

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  60. Alright off to go climbing.

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  61. BTW I sold my GLD puts a last week for a loss. I backed up the truck on Gdxj just a few moments ago.

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  62. Miners underperforming bigtime.

    The action feels like a mini-2008, where the stocks just completely disconnected from the metals. I think they're trying to tell us something.

    Sitting in cash now, and I will be for a while.

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  63. Just peeking in on the markets and to say hello.

    Another day of nothing to do except enjoy life. I'm still patiently waiting to short stocks and bonds, possibly after the next cycle top.

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  64. Haggerty, were they July Puts on GLD?

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  65. Thanks DG and FC for posting on EUO, out after you did.

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  66. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  67. Haggerty,

    If I may, why GDXJ?

    TZ,

    Any indicators from you yet on gold?

    Thanks.

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  68. Perhaps well see a double bottom with hui/xau as with the dollars breakout from it's bull flag I really find it hard to believe it will now roll over. Well probably see another few days of downward pressure on the markets as the dollar heads towards the 200dmva. It's such a clean break I'm surprised Gary is not factoring this into his analysis.

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  69. Yes they were July puts, I bought GDXJ because I feel it will move more % wise if we move to the upside.

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  70. "You just aren't going to catch bottoms with charts. Bottoms never look like bottoms in real time."

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32964983001&a=205392481&listNum=1


    If that's the case, why give us a chart with a trend line? I'm finding it harder and harder keeping up with you.

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  71. Thanks Jennifer. What do you mean by 20/80? The lower/upper RSI readings?

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  72. thanks Poly, will do so later

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  73. "If that's the case, why give us a chart with a trend line?"

    ericH, that trendline would define the next cycle, he is not using it to find a bottom, which was the discussion.

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  74. Sold my EUO at 18.0, Been nibbling at GDX, GDXJ, and GLD all day. Holding SPY I bought Friday. IF miners underperform GLD once the SPX rally gets going I will switch to GLD. Miners underperforming now is because SPX is getting killed and doesn't mean much (yet?)

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  75. Shalom,

    You didn't mention your short-term plans for gold. What's it going to take for you to take a nibble?

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  76. DG,

    Wanted to get a better sense of your psychology at this moment. Why buy GLD here if $gold might only make a marginal new high? There looks to be only a 6% return if $gold hits $1600 an ounce. Wouldn't it be a wise decision to wait for the A-wave?

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  77. Anyone know the GLD price at gold at 1500?

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  78. at ease...
    By my calculations, GLD/gold is a 1.0256 to 1 ratio.

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  79. Misplaced decimal... 10.256..

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  80. Rob L: I will take any trade where I believe the risk/reward is skewed heavily in my favor. So long as it is, I am interested. If there is an A-wave later, great, but it has no bearing on this trade (Except that if a great opportunity is coming you don't want to lose money now and not have it for later, but I am personally not concerned with that. I always have plenty of cash for later and a small loss now will make no difference.)

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  81. Thanks Mr Myagi, I was close, had $146.35. Just wanted to make sure I was in range.

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  82. I don't think we are going to get in at 1500 today.

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  83. No, doesn't look GLD today but I did pick up GDXJ at the low.

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  84. Both GDX and GDXJ had good lows to buy into today.

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  85. Holy shit, the GLD option premium are totally ridiculous today.

    Anyone buying GLD calls? What strike and month?

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  86. Hot Rod,

    I think Gary would recommend July 140 calls. He likes the delta to be .80 or higher. I bought July 148 calls.

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  87. For GLD options you may as well buy out to the end of the A wave Nov/Dec for the prices they want closer in.

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  88. Late to the party, price of admission increases :)

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  89. Don't think you want to hold through a d-wave or IT cycle low.

    The setup here is not perfect, you may want to take a small chunk 1-2% and play an OTM at around $149-$151. If we make the high's, which is the proposed setup, it will be good for 300% easily. Don't get excited/greedy hearing 300%, this trade is small because the flip side is a 100% loss.


    Playing a deep delta this late in the daily cycle and on the edge of a possible cycle low could get drawn down significantly fairly quickly. Just one idea.

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  90. Poly,

    I agree. Even so, the premiums late in the year are just as bad.

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  91. Poly,
    So would the GLD premiums tend to bottom out at the bottom of the d wave(as in good entry for the a wave)or would they tend to stay inflated through the end of the year(end of the A). Thanks

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  92. 86,

    The premiums are as low as you will find, investors are capitulating and are willing to walk away from their nightmare with just the options underlying value, for the most part of course.
    It is a fantastic time to buy because as the underlying security recovers, you make it back on the option value of course, but you quickly gain intrinsic value that was destroyed during the collapse. You will of course need Gary to find that bottom, although you will quickly join the line of corpses.

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  93. Long GDXJ 40%, QID 20%-, DUG 10%, GLDX 8%, EUO 13%
    Short SLV 7%
    Cash 2%

    -reduced position

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  94. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  95. Poly,
    LOL, no need to join the line of corpses. The agq shuffle was enough for me. Thank God it wasn`t agqx!
    Just getting started in options and really apreciate the input from yourself and the others that contribute selflessly. Thanks again.

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  96. For calls I remember Gary sayin he likes them 3-4 months out and .80 delta

    I went with Sept expiration

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  97. Eric,
    The chart with the trend line was to illustrate to whom ever it was that posted the trend line break that the market is just now forming the dip that will define this intermediate trend line.

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  98. For anyone still short SPY or QQQ,
    Gary had mentioned a gap on SPX. Watching Fast Money today, the high at the gap was 1312.70 and the low today was 1312.80. Hopefully we fill that gap tomorrow then shoot higher.

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  99. Added 10% to S&P index fund in my wife's and my company retirement plans as of cob today. Now at 20% equity, 80% cash. The new 10% needs to stay parked for 15 days. Gary's timing case. And, the 2's 10's curve is plus 260 bps; no bear market since the 80's has started with that spread >150 bps. Some other advisories I subscribe to are still bullish, and with 20% exposure this isn't betting the farm...

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  100. only positive comments shown here...

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  101. I know I wsa traveling over the weekend, however stil confused over SPY... was I or was I not supposed to sell at trigger stop loss 132? For this morning set up I followed the model portfolio and trade triggers as listed for the trades.

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  102. I will go over it again in tonight's report for those that didn't understand.

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  103. Since I no longer think we are in a D wave (on gold) (yet) I have returned back to regular 'core' insurance-type position.

    I don't have any sort of leveraged speculating long, however. I don't see an entry yet that a) has tight stop and b) tends to confirm we are going up instead of down. Gold is still in a daily triangle congestion so I'd rather let it show me up action than just imagine it *might* happen. Maybe it *IS* a D and just taking a bit longer than expected to resume lower.

    Otherwise this week is also gold contract rollover and option expiration. Typically these lead to hits on the downside so the uncertainty continues.

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  104. Gold closed just above the 9 day displaced average today, so this is probably an area a shakeout may form. Hopefully so as I would like to add a bit more.

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  105. Gary, did gold print a 4 day corralary today?

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  106. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  107. Bob,
    Not really. A four day rule is used to determine if an intermediate trend has changed. The gold trend still appears to be up. We might get a four day rule and/or a four day corollary at the top next month though and there's a good chance we will see one or both at the intermediate bottom later this summer.

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  108. Question for Gary,

    You wrote this morning: "I think we can go about taking our GLD position in one of two ways. We can either wait for the stock market to form another swing low or if one wants to try and pick a turning point the logical level to expect buyers to step in would be if gold can trade down to $1500 today."

    Gary, you seemed to do neither one of these and are now reporting (after the market has closed) that you went ahead and took the full position in GLD that you were planning to.

    How is a sub supposed to know that you were going to take a full position when neither of your criteria for taking a position were met today?

    Thanks.

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  109. M,
    I had to leave to go climbing so I just placed the trade as I went out the door. Keep in mind this is the model portfolio and not my personal portfolio. If one didn't take it today then just take it in the morning. You may even get a better entry if gold pulls back in the morning.

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  110. I am following the model portfolio as of today for some low risk exposure. I don't feel good about it at all - which is usually a good sign.

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  111. Thanks Gary for going over the spy. I was stopped out at trigger of 132, so I assume I can just get back in once the pivot is in place or below the 132?

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  112. Gary, I agree with the posters who were confused by the stop loss trigger today. While I personally did something different, it seemed pretty clear that the stop loss you recommended on the SMT site was hit today. You did mention taking the stop off in the comments but this wasn't clearly reflected in the "stops and triggers" section. You qualified the stop with an "or" statement making the stop a valid condition. Alternately, you could just make suggestions in the nightly report and forget about the model portfolio.

    I find you have valuable insight with cycle theory.

    Thanks!

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  113. Very nice report tonight, Gary.

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  114. Power corrupts

    I may be wrong, but that looks like a yellow finch, the same type of bird that we have here in new England in the good weather season...nice.

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  115. Gary,

    I heard from Bob loves Hawii that he had lunch with you Sunday. He said many good things about you and really enjoyed the time spent with you and a few others.

    To me, Not much beats a few kind words from a friend, so I wanted you to know that He spoke kindly of you as a friend.

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  116. Gary:

    From the report, since we may or may not get a D wave, I guess there are 2 scenarios:

    1. If no D, The C continues with the $$$ low stretched to fall.

    2. If D, then A in fall.

    Correct? Or is the ABCD pattern broken going into 2012?

    Thanks!

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  117. Gary,
    Well done on the report tonight. Thanks.

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  118. I just Read tonight report,
    Its good to see what GARY is watching there ...and with Silver it was something I hadnt thought of. Good to know, thanks ( I did buy AG at $17.05 on May 20..posted here). Also bought MFN @$12.65

    Kind of "random" , but I might as well mention that today I bought Pier one (PIR).

    I also bought CF. These are not my usual trades, but this market has been different for the past few weeks, sideways , up & down...and I have been trading on my own personal system...strictly using charts, so I havent posted on this blog ( because the trades were not backed by cycle bottoms yet).

    It has been working for 2 wks (gains), with 2 day buy & sell positions, but its difficult for those not in front of a p.c. daily , so I havent been posting trades.

    Since we are now looking for a trade-able rally, I have posted the above current holdings.

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  119. I'm not prepared to say the ABCD pattern is done yet. I still tend to think basic human emotions will drive the pattern. The question is whether the dollar really made a three year cycle low or whether it's still to come later in the fall.

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  120. Gary, nice write up on why we may no need the stop on SPY just yet...i see you like to live dangerously..:)

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  121. Another point...you said that model portfoilio is not what you actually do in your account...too bad..I surely would love to follow your trades in your account..is you personal portfolio in the premium section?

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  122. Daily cycle high's are in and now RT, let them chase her.

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  123. The gold chart looks good..think That we at least Will test the highs.

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  124. so far gold been moving higher despite dollar strength

    we'll have to see how far this dollar advances? the dollar strength is a headwind to gold advances.

    if the dollar can just cool down we'd have chances to hit 1600 in a couple of weeks, but if the dollar keeps advancing we'll stay around 1520 level IMO

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  125. Gary,

    Regarding cycles, I'm a little hazy on the possibilities for gold here. Are you saying that there are 2 possibilities? The first one being gold makes its final C wave run here over the next 2 weeks while the USD puts in its cycle low and the second one being a zig zag climb up into the fall if the USD will turn over and make a new low?

    Do you see silver as toast no matter what option, even if dollar low comes in fall?

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  126. Alex,

    Yep, it's 'Spinus tristis', aka American *Gold*finch

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  127. If the dollar still has the three year cycle low ahead of it instead of behind then yes after an intermediate correction this summer it will make another run higher into the fall.

    Silver is going to get hit during the intermediate correction and probably get hit extremely hard. The parabola is still broken.

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  128. GLD's IHS is in place now the 148.14 is breached. Next target is 150.28.

    OIH looks interesting here, as well.

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  129. Gary

    Without giving too much away, you mentioned in the report last night about a coil forming and that the break out of those coils are usually a head fake. Do you believe the break to the upside today will be short lived for a couple of day's and head back down? or is your opinion this is one of the few times it will work in our favor?

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  130. I guess I can ask, can the break out of this coil last a couple of weeks and still be a headfake?

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  131. Gary, often speaks regarding the BB crash trade. Here is a chart from a futures trader I like. He shows why this is a profitable trade. Enjoy.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/1105/media/b06dd356-a986-45cc-8cbd-b4c737427248/110524_SPX_Daily_BB_Lower_Breaks.png

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  132. Hot Rod,

    Sorry i didn't mean to suggest the Gold high is in. I was saying we now have a new high printed for this cycle and now it's RT. So let them chase it much higher here.

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  133. I am long SPY and various gold items now. Moderate size and looking to add today on pullbacks.

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  134. DG,

    Thanks. What is your definition of a "pullback?" Do you use indicators or is it finesse?

    Thanks.

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  135. Bob

    I'm very new to trading, when you say "GLD's IHS is in place now the 148.14 is breached." - what do you mean by IHS?

    I'm trying to determine if now is a good entry for GLD. Any and all help in this matter is appreciated.

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  136. Scott, IHS = inverted head & shoulders

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  137. Bob,

    That's a great chart of the Boll Band trade, thanks for sharing. Who is this futures trader you like?

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  138. Ebb and flow, ride the tide.

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  139. Poly, if I may ask: what are your feelings on OTM Puts on silver if it hits $40?

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  140. SB, You interested yet???

    Alex, Nice move on AG!

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  141. Looks lile the silver coils broken to the upside.

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  142. Eamon,

    got to move quickly on any of those types of trades. That specific one is very speculative, but has some odds. I took a very small SLV June $40 position this morning, but "SMALL"!

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  143. Poly, you bought SLV June $40 Calls or Puts? I was referring to buying Puts if silver spot hit $40

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  144. OH SORRY Eamon, miss read your post. I purchased $40 CALLS!, LOL.

    I have no opinion on puts right now, I don't see that setup yet, will determine on where we are when I think we are near the top.

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  145. Traderlady

    Go figure , both my AQG and EXK are my biggest gainers (both Silver). I know they're supposed to be taboo , but the charts were saying buy

    AG chart that was the reason I bought ( 5 day/ 15 minute )

    http://www.screencast.com/t/6hYkQQr1

    (It shows a breakaway gap at $17, and refilling that gap on 1/2 the volume). I buy as a quick trade or 'hold'...glad I held this time :)

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  146. This is not the forum for options and those can get a bit boffinish, but just wanted to mention that the comments here on the subject do not even begin to scratch the surface on the issue.

    Without understanding the options "implied volatility" in the price you are paying you are destined to lose. Paying, say, a big 50% implied volatility (if e.g. historic vol is 30%) means emotions are already elevated and you need a LARGE AMOUNT OF MOVEMENT IN THE UNDERLYING STOCK to make money because if the volatility goes down or stays flat, or if the stock goes down or stays flat, you will lose money. Market-makers happily sell them to you as there are many more ways for you to lose money on them.

    A quick calculator is such - if you assume that a stock has an annualized volatility of e.g. 35% how much does it need to move in 1 day, 1 week or 1 month in YOUR DIRECTION to offset the volatility priced into the option? To get that number for any number of trading days, multiply 35% by the square root of the number of days/252. That is, for the range 5 days from now, multiply 35% by the square root of 5/252. So, in 5 days, theoretically 2/3rds of the time, the stock will be between -5% and +5% (0.0493 exact answer).

    In-the-money options are nice and lower risk, but the sweet part of the curve is around at-the-money level with delta around 0.5.

    Some very smart and experienced people only ever use options to hedge existing exposure. Other profitable ones more often sell options to capture some time erosion / mean-reversion etc, but that's black-belt level.

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  147. Good morning traderlady,

    No, I'm still flat. I'm confident I'll have plenty of time to accumulate miners over the next couple months.

    It's good to see them show strength and outperform for a change, but chasing moves in sideways markets is deadly. Had I been long, I'd be looking to exit (maybe tomorrow?.

    My take is we're in a sideways market for most assets while they make way for the next trend. That means shortened hold times with smaller profit objectives.

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  148. Nice comment Alex and SB,

    I am riding just some smaller positions for interest/pocket change. I hope not deadly, just bought a new bike:)

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  149. What is the target today for a potential swing high in the USD? Is it the low from yesterday at 75.70? Do we have to close below there or just break it intraday?

    I know it is a long way off, just setting bearings.

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  150. An intraday break of 75.70 will form the swing.

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  151. Hotrod: I am a tape reader from way back. "Pullback" just means a lower price from anywhere. I usually look to see if the pullback is resisted by other hot items or is everything pulling back together. If my item pulls back but other things are firm, I add. I have added more GDX, GLD, and bought a little QQQ this morn ing. I am about where i want to be for this move now. The miners are firm today relative to gold which gave me confidence to add this morning.

    If you find yourself really wanting to buy and afraid to pull the trigger reduce the size then do it.

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  152. Some profitable track records buy in the last few sessions of the month if the preceding sessions were down ... for the end-of-month report card.

    I like staying in surging moves that hold the 5-day MA on a closing basis (allowing for small leeway) - shows clearly which side has the ball. Seeing sectors enter that zone today - GDX, FCX, XLE.

    Howe far will this run to generate the maximum amount of momentum long money participation? 50 MA, 200 MA, old highs? Or has 1527 gold already sucked in the longs?

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  153. Posted on options. But was deleted by someone somehow. Maybe went far off-topic.

    Summary - learn volatility and time decay as will determine your returns in addition to getting direction right; many experienced traders stay completely away, pros sell options more often than buy.

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  154. caught by spam blockers. I'll fix it.

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  155. Purchased RIC @ $7.75 today, to add to metals current positions.

    The volume on most miners looks like real buying off the bottom, I see conviction in this move (so far)

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  156. Michael, also you can simply be a option spread trader and you isolate volatility and Theta.

    That way it doesn't matter, then you can focus on Delta and Gamma to set your price.

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  157. Catbird, he is Springeel Jack. His blog ig is chartsandpatterns blog. You can google it.

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  158. Gary: Today is day 13 of Gold cycle and both Gold and $$$ are now RT cycles. While the $$$ is dropping into its daily low, shouldn't Gold drop into its low in the next 5-7 days?

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  159. Bob,

    Thanks a lot. Here it is. Funny I was looking for Jack's Blog before but could not find it. I saw that he posted regularly on slope of hope and followed him there.

    http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

    Thanks.

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  160. NJ,
    Why would you think gold should drop while the dollar is dropping?

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  161. Todays action on the S & P 500 should make it easier to form a swing low tomorrow! (So far)

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  162. The S&P needs to marginally break below yesterday's intraday low. Then it will be easier to form the swing on Wednesday.

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  163. Gary-
    Thanks for clarifying! I continue to learn (Albeit at a slow pace) :))

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  164. Well...After getting whacked with AGQ, I guess my thinking has been messed up!!

    Just wondering how the daily cycle for Gold will play out given that we are deep in this intermediate cycle.

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  165. Will buy ES if we get the washout...

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  166. whitebear,

    Yesterday was a washout, 90% down vol NYSE. Actually, you would want to buy a washup, 90% up vol NYSE, that's a sign of institutional buying.

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  167. I know some are hoping for a pullback, but these signs of weakness are scary.

    All holding tight?

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  168. Ok, I'm looking to buy the washout of the washout.

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  169. ISSUE GAINERS SYMBOL EXCH LAST PRICE MONEY FLOW RATIO
    (in millions)
    Yandex YNDX NASD 35.01 +267.0 1.93
    SPDR S&P 500 SPY ARCA 132.01 +79.1 1.13
    Pfizer PFE NYSE 20.49 +48.2 2.23
    CME Group Inc. CME NASD 290.91 +42.0 3.93
    SPDR Gold Tr GLD ARCA 148.57 +35.7 1.21


    hello spy, hello gld

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  170. Edwin,

    Can you briefly explain what those mean?

    Thanks.

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  171. DG,

    What's your stop on the SPY trade?

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  172. Everyone who bought yesterday or this morning thinking the low was in will get stopped...

    That is, of course, if you use stops. I do, but that's the way I ride.

    WB

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  173. Hot Rod, the fundamentals don't look so sweet any more.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/richmond-fed-collapse-atlantic-region-manufacturing-enters-contraction-raw-material-prices-i

    Same picture in Europe, I believe

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  174. edwin,
    Yandex, the first on your list, is a Russian internet company IPO first day trade.

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  175. the setup is there last week from gold 1515 it was achieved.

    gold trading over 1515 this week good sign, causing other peeps to join. in a healthy trade zone now.

    delivery done, open interest down, time to renew.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html

    boom time for an impulse wave (i'm not talking elliot here this is my own calc)

    setup looks nice for 2 weeks. dollar just got to run out of gas temporarily. i believe it's intermediate trend is already UP.. but don't discount the fact that gold can move UP with the dollar.

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  176. Catbird: I don't really have a firm stop on SPY. My style is hard to describe and depends on whether I change my mind about a rally coming. I am not really thinking about it yet. I do not recommend this approach because most people feel going down is "bearish" and just emotionally sell on weakness. I sometimes have a firm stop (because breaking such-and-such a level is in fact bearish) and I will surely be out if it beaks the 4/18 low of 129.50 or so, but i will probably be out before then. Today is annoying but isn't really telling me anything from what I can see.

    We had a 90% down day, a BB crash trade, a weak Monday after OpEx (usually a rally follows), etc. Not to mention Gary's cycle low being due. Lots of evidence for a rally here so I will be somewhat patient.

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  177. hotrod - it means smart money is buying SPY and GLD

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  178. Long DUG 10%, EUO 13%, GDXJ 41%, GLDX 8%, QID 15%-
    Short SLV 7%
    Cash 6%

    -reduced position

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  179. institutions don't all buy at the same time.

    if 1317 doesn't hold on the SPY,it's going down and going to break peoples stops.

    happening right now..

    almost time to load the truck..

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  180. DG,

    Good answer...thanks.

    I'm very stop-conscious because as a less experienced trader I am trying to burn into my brain cells the habit of always placing a stop the moment I take my position. Always. This is just because I'm trying to protect myself from myself.

    I will lose out on some profits, but I figure the if I want to form this habit I will have to take action in accordance with the desired habit. So I'm kind of doctrinaire with always having a self-executing stop.

    Well, I'm going to step away and pop in at the close. Looks to be a kind of boring day.

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  181. Catbird. Good! The very most important trading rule IMO is not to lose too much capital. It's a fine line, though, as you don't want to whipsaw yourself constantly with too-tight stops. It's one of the ways in which Gary;'s cycle trading is helpful. If a previous low is taken out, things have changed and it's adios. Just don;t buy too much at a time and don't add too much at higher prices. Each successive purchase should be smaller than the one before it. Buy a lot when the stop is close to limit losses and then add bits later if you like. I like to start the year conservatively and get bolder as profits are banked.

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  182. Ah yes,

    The slow bump and grind down to get everyone thinking a low is in. Then the final flush, to scare everyone to cash while they scoop up the poop...

    HAHAHA

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  183. Waiting patiently for that gap to get filled on SPY. Almost there.

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  184. GLD 30Min Chart/Channel/Fib %

    http://screencast.com/t/43cyzSERIF

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