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Thursday, May 19, 2011

Portfolio change

A portfolio change has been added to the model portfolio link and the stops for these positions have been added to the stops and trade trigger link.

555 comments:

  1. I haven't looked at the portfolio change, yet, but I assume it is what was suggested in last night's report.

    I've been lookinga t charts, and to my eye, the dollar's rally is intact until proven otherwise. The current price action is a controlled drift lower on low volume, possibly a bull flag. So, even with the low risk set up in metals (stops close by), I'm staying with cash for now. This is the kind of transition phase that if i keep trying to find my opening results in quick trades and becomes a headache at tax time. I'm waiting for a swing low on the dollar to jump on EUO (2x short Euro), DUG (2x Short Oil and Gas), and SKF (2x Short Financials).

    If the PMs prove themselves, I may take a small position, but for now I see the odds in favor of the trend having shifted.

    f

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  2. The cleanest setup I see at this time is to buy DUG with a swing high reversal in XLE, then add to it with a break below 72.28 on XLE. The stop would be above the pivot high. Low risk to portfolio.

    I haven't yet looked, but I imagine similar setups will occur on XLF/SKF, and SPY/SDS.

    In the meantime, I feel like a bear in hibernation.

    f

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  3. Gary,

    didn't you, a few times and not so long ago say, that you have no interest in investing in the stock market - instead, didn't you say you were interested only in investing in the last bull standing? What changed since then? If anything, isn't the stock market more questionable now that you say we might be at the brink of the bear returning to the markets?

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  4. Basil,
    This most certainly isn't an investment, just a trade because the stops are very close.

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  5. Fubsy,

    I agree with your strategy. Dollar holding up well, staying in cash until swing low will add to UUP options and EUO.

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  6. Fubsy,
    I was considering a position in FAZ, but was waiting due to the "probable" daily cycle low on the S&P. Curious why you would put on your SKF at the swing low for the dollar and not just wait for confirmation of a failed daily cycle? Thanks

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  7. Unless we see the dollar break the 50dmva moving average it continues to look like a bull flag formation. I honestly think all the moneys been made, trying to trade this thing is just asking to get whipsawed in and out of positions. My only holdings are my oct. puts on slv which I will sell when silver hits it's 200dmva...whether that happens next week or two months from now.

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  8. Gary's latest port is the anti-Tim Knight port.

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  9. Michael,

    You have a sound strategy. Waiting for a swing low or a test of the low on the dollar. They are both a "test" of the low in the dollar and the confirmation which we are yet to have.

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  10. down for a few years per the venerable stock mkt almanac owner:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/dow-38000-how-to-play-it/article2023318/

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  11. Bruce,

    i think you'll find TimK bought GDX & is currently holding

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  12. Two days of huge bid-hitting in 30-year and 10-year bonds supports risk-on trade for a bit. Maybe even float into month-end.

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  13. I'm sitting tight and looking for a low-risk entry to short both bonds and stocks. Not playing the long side, and if I do, it would only be miners and into a pullback in the next few days.

    My focus is on shorting stock indexes and t-bonds while waiting for the A-wave.

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  14. The SPY trade long has very little upside potential, IMO.

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  15. Michael,

    With bonds getting hit hard, stocks and risk assets should be doing much better than they are.

    Markets are at a turning point looking for new direction.

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  16. SB,

    I am curious about your thinking behind your plan.

    Short stocks I understand.

    But why short bonds? If Commodities and Stocks are going into a deflationary period and interest rates are kept low or lowered as a result, would not bonds rise?

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  17. Thx SB, I saw little risk to reward on SPY, IMO Sure would like clarity
    for a trend!

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  18. Dan,

    I agree on the whipsaw.

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  19. SB, I agree with you that at some point, both Bonds and Stocks will go lower together...
    I bought some calls in NSQ 2 days ago, just sold them at the open, no point holding positions for too long in that environment

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  20. The AAII poll is showing bulls approaching levels last seen at the tsunami bottom. That has pretty consistently led to gains. Plus the dollar is starting to get late in it's daily cycle. If there is going to be a test of the lows it should start soon.

    I'm banking on that pushing gold and stocks higher.

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  21. Today's AAII poll shows bulls fallen all the way to about 27% of sample ... "which is the lowest level since August 26, 2010, the day before the fall rally began" notes Briefing. Put-calls ratios spiked last few days. May be some juice into the whiz bang of the month end.

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  22. Shalom

    Same here..Waiting for confirmation from Gary to short the hell out of this market..:-)

    Fubsy got som nice ideas also.

    The problem with me is that I want to trade all the time..Even when the risk/reward dont favour me.

    Waiting for the right moment is not my strong side. But I must learn to wait. Be cool!

    Fubsy seems to be very patient..Gary and DG also..The old guys..Then we got me!!! lol

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  23. One doesn't get a much better edge than the first day of a daily cycle.

    Confirmation to "short the hell out of the market" is a long way away. It has to take out a daily cycle low and then an intermediate cycle low before we can be really confident to short heavily.

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  24. I think bonds short might turn out to be the better of the two, only because some will run to stocks.

    This will not be like 2008 though, and I believe stocks will have limited upside. Gary's stock longs are likely to work, just nothing great was my point.

    Try not to assume all the typical relationships will always hold because they often don't. To me, bonds are already dead, and stocks are telling me they are next. One reason might be if the Fed stops buying all the treasuries for awhile bonds will certainly puke, but QE is also the reason stocks have marched higher the past year, so they could easily follow.

    Either the Fed will cease QE altogheter, or it needs to put a scare into markets to justify a new program. Either way, bonds, stocks, or both will get the rug yanked from under them. My guess is only for a few months, but that;s good enough for me.

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  25. "The problem with me is that I want to trade all the time..Even when the risk/reward dont favour me."-Moneyman

    Not me, I got over that a long time ago. I like the easier money, if there is such a thing. :)

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  26. One last observation for any of us looking at any potential trade. Now more than the last several months when markets were trending strongly, it's important NOT to chase a trade.

    With limited profit potential, one cannot afford a bad fill or to miss the first several % of a move. All trades I take will be into temporary pullbacks or spikes intraday. We cannot count on the trend to correct timing mistakes.

    If necessary, I'm happy to sit tight until a sure bet in commods again.

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  27. Shalom

    I know that you have.

    If I dont change this will be a mess.

    But its hard to be patient. I dont like the emotions either..Its actually hard do change..

    Maybe that is why so few succeed..:-)

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  28. Shalom

    How did you get over it?

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  29. Eamonn, school's out for the day?

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  30. Not to keep yacking here, but I do believe Gary's long GDX trade has little downside risk and was something I looked at as well. It's just that I want to focus on something I believe has more potential profit.

    Must admit, this chart looks tempting:

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CSl4ju6lENA/TdM9tFqPZAI/AAAAAAAAAbU/aXzoaZMYjsI/s1600/snapshot-699.png

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  31. Gary,

    When was the long SPY trade made and at what price ?

    I've looked back and I don't see this trade mentioned. Can we expect trades to appear from thin air from now on ?

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  32. moneyman,

    I got tired of pissing money away and draining my energy on sub-optimal trades. I reviewed my trades and the reasons for taking them.

    Impatience still creeps up on me, but it does far less damage than my earlier years b/c I nip it quick.

    If you know you are impatient, you're already on the way to correcting it. In the end, we do this to make money. The excitement is a distant second. :)

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  33. I think all of us would love to be making trades here but we must keep in mind the past few months have been abnormally volatile. We are now back to the usual slow trending markets so the quick profits are gone. Gary's arguments to go long here do make sense and if the dollar does finally breakdown, I will buy some long positions to atleast cover my shorts but IMO there really isn't a rush.

    The big money will be made buying in late summer and holding till the end of the year.

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  34. If Gary takes a peek at the daily 30 yr bond on stockcharts, I find it hard to believe he wouldn't love to short 'em.

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  35. Eamonn, I recognized that banana for the beep that it was. TZ is gonna hear about this.

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  36. Moneyman,

    One area to examine is position sizing. It goes a long way to quelling emotional decisions. It's the single most important discipline in trading and it will keep you in the game long enough to take money out of it.

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  37. Gary is kind of a sensationalist stock picker...seems kinda like a hack to me...like I said before the only reason everyone made so much money with him is because he was going long into the silver bull... even at that lots of people at even cause of the break.. 2-3 years before precious metals (silver) resume, give me a break. Try in 3-9 months...

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  38. Wes,
    I added the position to the model portfolio this morning. I posted to the website a note to check the model portfolio link for new positions and posted a portfolio change to the blog.

    Was there something else I should do?

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  39. Shalom

    thanks!!

    This is so true. When I got a lot of money in the market its so hard to be cool. Hard to keep the position when the market is moving around. Then I just make this stupied decisions..After that I just wonder..What have I done?!?!?!

    "One area to examine is position sizing. It goes a long way to quelling emotional decisions"

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  40. SB,
    I'm not comfortable with bond cycles so I'll probably stay away from bonds.

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  41. Jim,
    Shows you how little you know. I almost never pick individual stocks. Almost always ETF's. I guess your goal is to just be abusive.

    Nice try though :)

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  42. Picked up some TWM earlier as a hedge - working good right now...

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  43. Gary,

    The GDX and GDXJ positions indicate they were added 5/18. When was the SPY position added ?

    I wasn't here yesterday and I'm confused.

    Is it just me, or is this getting hard to follow ?

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  44. Wes, do you read the nightly reports? Look at the bottom of last nights report.

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  45. Romeo,

    I must be blind. Is there something there about adding SPY ? Where is it ?

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  46. The date positions were taken is shown on the charts in the Model Portfolio.

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  47. The bottom of the report says the stock market is overbought.

    Why would you add SPY into an overbought market ? Something doesn't make sense.

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  48. I'm with Dan here. Both the dollar and Gold haven't shown that their respective short term trends have reversed. The trade should be to enter long dollar correlated investments on any pullback or sell into this PM bounce.

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  49. My mistake I did the GDX and GDXJ charts last night. The date should read 5/19/11. I will correct it.

    I decided to take the SPY trade this morning based on this probably being the first day of a new daily cycle.

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  50. Wes,
    I don't believe that there was any mention of the SPY position in last night's report. I think it was added this morning, and Gary posted it on the blog as well on the subscriber website under (1) May 19 (New Positions) post, (2) Model Portfolio and the (3) Stop & Trade Triggers.

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  51. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  52. Wes, the comments of changes to the model portfolio are listed at the bottom of last nights report. Gary does believe we are in a new daily cycle hence the SPY. It was not mentioned specifically until this AM.

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  53. I joined Gary on the GDX trade during the dip a few minutes ago.

    Tiny position and a tight stop. I have no expectation to make more than beer money off this.

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  54. The dates are now corrected.

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  55. I think we all need to understand that we aren't in the same environment as we were the last 9 months. It's going to be harder to make money. Trades will be shorter. There probably won't be any long term Old Turkey type trades for some time. At least until the next intermediate bottom.

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  56. Gary,

    what kind of bounce can you realistically expect on gold, gdx, spy?

    The dollar appears to be doing a crawl on the 50DMA, and GDX really looks like it's in a bear flag, and the chart of gold looks really sick...

    not

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  57. Gary,
    For the stop trigger, I know you stated for it to CLOSE below the stop trigger so would that mean we wait 5 minutes before market closes and sell if it looks like it'll close at the number or wait for it to actually close and then sell at the open the next day?

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  58. Not,
    You are trying to trade based n chart patterns. I'm trying to trade based on cycles.

    The stock market has probably put in a daily cycle bottom. That would suggest higher prices and higher stock prices would suggest a corrective move in the dollar. (BTW a crawl along the top of the 50 DMA is negative for the dollar not positive).

    The dollar is getting late enough in it's daily cycle that it should begin the move down into the cycle low anytime.

    That should drive a move up in gold and stocks.

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  59. Ryan,
    You could use either one. It's a toss up as to which one will get you a better exit.

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  60. I am reluctant to trade the SPY at this point. Any bad news could trigger a sell off. I'll wait for a better entry point...

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  61. Gary,

    I just got word that the offer I had put on a Florida condo has been accepted. I had planned to pay it off over the next 10 years. Because of YOUR guidance, I am able to pay it off NOW! Thanks again.

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  62. Gary,

    I think it's rather risky to play a brief hypothetical upward move here, and actually expected you would think so too, in a market that you are convinced has already changed or might be in the process of changing its trend to the downside. Is trying to play brief moves up in what looks like a beginning downtrend really a sound strategy?

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  63. Thanks Gary, didn't join you on the short but I'll take the risk and join here.

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  64. Hack,
    You just got the best entry point you are going to get unless you think you can perfectly time a daily cycle low.

    I find it funny that people always look for a better entry even if the rally is only one day old.

    The reality is that any pullback is always seen as a big negative and they can't pull the trigger anyway.

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  65. Basil,

    I was thinking the same thing last week when silver was falling under 33.

    Why would big money buy gold and silver here when the big correction is coming either now or after another small percent increase...?

    Well, there has to be a logical reason because they are buying. Or, maybe its just the speculators buying.

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  66. Ryan,

    What I would do is one of two things:

    1) Close position a couple minutes before the close if price is below the stop sufficiently enough that it wouldn't rebound above that price in two minutes, -OR-
    2) Just wait till the close, and then sell in the after hours trading. The spread will widen a bit on GDXJ and maybe GDX, but should remain tight on the SPY. And the wider spread on the GDX and J--you're talking at most a few cents.

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  67. Basil,
    We have no solid indication that the trend has changed yet. And I don't think I've ever seen a new daily cycle only rally one day and then roll over.

    Most likely it will rally till it's ready to drop into the half cycle low and then it will violate the half cycle low. That would be the point to go short.

    Granted we aren't going to make a lot of money off the trade, but we aren't going to make a lot of money off any trades for a while.

    So we just have to take what the market gives us and right now this should be a low risk long trade on the S&P.

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  68. Thanks Gary for the porfolio update. In on the day's lows.

    BAMSTER! Congrats on the condo buy!
    Happy for you and can just imagine how happy Gary is also. Where in FL is your new Condo?

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  69. Gary,

    the dollar had six up days on that recent rally from the low. That rally has only become obvious once we had already one or two up days in place. That leaves you with four or so days. Now you expect it to move down; so that trade you are in right now (if you take the dollar as a gauge) has perhaps a time frame of a week at the most, of which one up day in stocks and gold has already occurred. So it's a 4 to 5 day trade, before then you hopefully time the exit right and then might be swinging back into a mental position of dollar up stocks / commodities down? Correct?

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  70. Good for you BAMSTER! FL on sale and
    a great investment at this time.

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  71. hack, market going to turn up very soon, according to $nymo....IMHO

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  72. at ease, traderlady, Thanks.

    The condo is located in Sarasota.

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  73. "traderlady said...
    Good for you BAMSTER! FL on sale and
    a great investment at this time."

    And you can see the ocean, that is a plus..miss Hawaii already.

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  74. PC,
    Thanks for the advice I appreciate it, I would do the AH thing but unfortunately I don't have access to it. I don't know if it's b/c I'm in Canada or I my broker is TD waterhouse. I will use the couple of minutes before close, hopefully I won't have to sell these trades in the red.

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  75. The Philadelphia index was really bad this month..What is happening in USA? Lol

    What are you guys doing?

    And the market is up? lol

    I can really feel that we dont have much time left. Me an my emotions!

    Dollar down..Nicey!

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  76. Linked-In doubles in its first day of trading

    That's crazier by several orders of magnitude than silver's run IMO...

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  77. DG or Veronica? Are you there? Can you here me? You guys got some buy or sell signal?

    Gary told us that the dollar will soon go down in a cycle low..here we go! I hope

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  78. PST,
    I see a lot of overhead supply on the XLE, XLF, HUI etc....My guess is that attempts to rally will be met by the shaky hand that now hold these positions long. They will sell when rallies give them an oppty to get out. I see your point about waiting for a violation of the DCL for confirmation. My trade would be a little less certain, but with the low risk stop just overhead on the XLE, I could buy DUG with a teaser position, and add if the breakdown ensues.

    So, to answer you question, I think a swing high reversal on XLE would have a decent chance of continuing the drop, and its a low risk play. And, I'm bored.

    f

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  79. Good choice Bamster! My town and love it! Palmer Ranch?? That's me:)

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  80. 1340 achieved.. so lets see how far this leg can run.

    waiting for 1515 gold..

    i'm accumulating TIP at this time

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  81. I am here. Not posting much because I have nothing useful to say. I know that doesn't necessarily stop me... :-)

    Waiting for a rally to short into.

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. Chart lovers, check out these Rambus charts. 2 days old but still valid.

    http://arch11.goldtent.org/?p=59827

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  84. Well said Gary!
    The market has changed, it is going to be difficult to make money for few months, so we can try to grab small amounts here and there, but you are absolutely right that taking a huge position now for the sake of it is stupid.
    Say hi to your favorite rock on my behalf!

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  85. Hey Fubsy: I am going to add to my EUO every 50¢ down, so next buy is at about 17.00. You adding on the way down or waiting till you see a more clear dollar bottom?

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  86. Wav_ridah said...
    charts, these are bearish, correct?

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  87. DG, was wondering if you were still playing EUO.

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  88. Fubsy, and cycle lows aside, I believe we are getting near the change of momentum. Yes, sentiment is somewhat bearish now but a few weeks of going sideways to slightly up can burn that off. With QE2 ending and many people expecting a drop, perhaps the market surprises by dropping several weeks before it officially ends or the market hangs on my it's fingernails and then drops in July.

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  89. at ease,
    Yeah they are. The nice thing is we are expecting this scenario.

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  90. I still took the morning trade though. I liked Gary's reasoning.

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  91. There goes the dollar, down to 50 day MA and looking poorly.

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  92. I suspected that you were near ..

    :-)

    I have a small position in gold. that's all.

    Trying to teach me not to buy and sell with emotion. Shalom said that I could start by not taking on large positions.

    You wrote earlier about the difference between emotions and feelings..very interesting!

    Well while you're here and I'll send a link to the board..Nice one! :-)

    http://vimeo.com/22439234

    Its from El Teide in Spain. Seems to be a nice place!!

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  93. I'm really wanting to short LNKD at these levels.

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  94. Wav Ridah,
    Was just checking as I have puts in SLV

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  95. FWIW, I would not use any double long or short etf for charting purposes because of the decay they are subject to. Maybe very short term, like a few days on hourly charts, you could get away with it.

    But for charts with daily bars, I would use the underlying instrument.

    For example, don't use ZSL or AGQ as a proxy for silver because the first one is double short, the second double long. Use SLV instead, or silver futures or spot.

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  96. But, of course, I can't. I wonder when I can start buying puts.

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  97. Make sure you're out far enough and allow them to work. It's very easy to get spooked out. GL

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  98. At Ease: I make my serious money on these kinds of plays (euo) because I can do size when I have a strong opinion and they can go for distance. I played euo from 18 to 25 last year. Hoping for an almost exact repeat this year.

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  99. Gary,

    Coming at your conclusion from a different direction, it looks to me that the rally in GDX topped out in early December from a lack of buyers. It then found buyers again in the 53-54 area in late January before running out of sponsorship again in mid April at the top of the consolidation range that is forming around 63-64. Buying volume came in again in the 53-54 area the last several sessions. So if this is a consolidating trading range for a while, the next gut check area would come in around 63 again. Unless there is a break below 53 or so on ramping volume... I'm not a trader but that's the way the daily chart since August of last year looks to me.

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  100. The dollar has been rescued from breaking the 50DMA twice...once by the FED announcement, and then unemployment report today...they cant keep this up. It shall crack down soon.
    There should be some 10-14 days of downward pressure on the USD.

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  101. Good, have a small position right now, waiting to add. So this may run the scenario I sent...
    Appreciate if you keep me posted of your thoughts. Thanks!

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  102. For people for whom the big PM take-down was an eye-opener, I encourage you to do some research and take a look at some of the long-term track records of trend-followers.

    If not overlaid with other strategies and exposures, riding these trends often leads to big drawdowns with 30% and 50% down from peak often par for the course. Check out performance stats for groups like the Turtles or assets under management for big-name trend-only CTAs - when drawdowns exceed say, 20%, AuM can go from many hundreds of millions or more down into the tens of millions as investors redeem and the spiral surges.

    Diversification in the form of some short-term swing/counter-trend plays - not everyone's cup of tea and not a big money-maker - is one remedy for the above. Importantly, they also keep you sharp and interacting with the market while talking your main play ... the best prices last the least amount of time and if you're not fit then ...

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  103. DG and you don't use Options either, do you?

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  104. For people for whom the big PM take-down was an eye-opener, I encourage you to do some research and take a look at some of the long-term track records of trend-followers.

    If not overlaid with other strategies and exposures, riding these trends often leads to big drawdowns with 30% and 50% down from peak often par for the course. Check out performance stats for groups like the Turtles or assets under management for big-name trend-only CTAs - when drawdowns exceed say, 20%, AuM can go from many hundreds of millions or more down into the tens of millions as investors redeem and the spiral surges.

    Diversification in the form of some short-term swing/counter-trend plays - not everyone's cup of tea and not a big money-maker - is one remedy for the above. Importantly, they also keep you sharp and interacting with the market while stalking your main plays ... the best prices last the least amount of time and if you're not fit then ...

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  105. Nope. Options is a whole separate science IMO if used for speculation (DITM is different). To me it's like saying late in a career, "I'm a biologist. I think I'll become a physicist now." I don't need that much leverage. To me there's no difference between making 30% on your whole account or 200% on a 15% position, though saying "I made 200% on a trade" gives people a psychological thrill.

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  106. Michael,

    Trend following diversified CTA's will experience significant drawdowns periodically like you say. But those have usually coincided with great times to add money for investors in their funds (unless the CTA takes his eye off the ball and buys a baseball team or such).

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  107. The dollar on the weekly chart looks like it might get turned down by the downtrend line over the next 1-3 weeks. If so, we'll have a left translated IC, and new lows will likely be in the offing.


    http://tinypic.com/r/rvc605/7

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  108. Makes sense to me, especially if you are strong on your play. :)
    I am going to play less options this time around. I did well last time, but it was risky and less sleep at night. Need more sleep and more life and balance. :)

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  109. I do always play DITM options. So kept profits up and losses down. But still need more sleep and balance. :)

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  110. At Ease: This is a long distance race, IMO. You want a good return year after year with the occasional "wow" year when conditions permit. Balance is a good idea if you plan to do this over time.

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  111. DG,
    Sounds like for the long distance you play the same stocks/etfs over and under repeatedly with patience? Are you still shorting the Qs?

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  112. DG, yes planning on doing this for the long haul so looking for the type of strategies that can easily be played repeatedly with patience. Biggest lesson I learned was to let the price come to me, instead of chasing, so figured if I concentrated on making that a strategy, I would focus on accomplishing that goal and get rid of that bad habit (fear of missing the trade).

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  113. I do trade an occasional oddball ETF but rarely with serious money. I have become enamored of the euro as i cannot see how it can survive once Italy and Spain start to crack. Gold is obvious. SPY, QQQ, and IJR round out my top four ETF's. Sometimes the 2X versions and sometimes the inverse ones, but I usually just short 'em.

    I have not been short the Q's for some time. My little plays have tight stops because I want to be sure I am well in the black for the year at the next big setup. I don't want to blow money on stuff I do not have very high confidence in (bad enough blowing it in my high confidence plays!) I am well ahead for 2011 which gives me some leeway to go heavy at the next real opportunity.

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  114. I am comfortable with GLD most. I was so nervous being in SLV CALLS and AGQ, when I saw it hit near Gary's high, I got out and switched back into GLD (my comfort zone). So survived that big drawdown, but then the next week, thinking the runaway was still in, lost on the GLD Calls bought that week. So didn't lose as big, but still took a hit. Had I not been so leveraged in options and in the ETF would have been better. So going to play much less options this A wave. I play the puts now, just because they are just low cost/less funds used and not much of loss of funds. So I play the downside that way, rather than inverse funds.

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  115. DG, have you read Aftershock? Weidemeier brothers. They call for the death of the Euro. I believe they have a new updated book coming out end of July.

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  116. Just small plays now with EUO, SPY, GDX, GDXJ, puts in SLV for July. Saving funds for A wave GLD and add ons of above.

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  117. Dollar index down .5% and gold & the miners are having trouble staying positive. Again fellas. Sometime doing nothing is the best course of action.

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  118. DG

    What confirmations do you look for in entering positions in EUO?
    thanks a bunch for your insight!
    Great stuff

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  119. Free: Hard to say. I am a tape reader. Could be a sever overbought in FXE. Could be a churn in UUP and then a slight new high on low volume. Could be hitting a falling trendline. Could be a high-volume reversal. Hard to say ahead of time, but I hope I see it. I will post (as will Fubsy I suspect) when we take the trade.

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  120. Power,

    That is true, buying quality on the dip is a winner.

    For all those focusing on the trading tips here (without tending to portfolio construction first) and 130% long EVER - know the nature of the beast - riding trends bareback will bring heavy drawdowns ...

    As rightly stated here today, it's bet size that is the big driver.

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  121. DG,
    I'm waiting for the dollar to put in a reversal. I just have the feeling of being whipsawed. Once the trend starts to show confirmations, I'll be adding at weakness, and breakouts.

    I'm really working on this patience thing.

    f

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  122. Gary,

    Respectfully, you are playing with people's livelihood, retirement, etc. The worst part is that you have told people with the utmost certainty that you expect to be right. Example silver.. do I need to say anything more? No one is perfect but that kind of behavior is unacceptable. Especially when you are so lackadaisical about owning up when you have made flagrant irresponsible mistakes. If you are who you say you are then show your account statements from the past 6-10 years. Lets us be the judge of your performance. I for one will eat my words.

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  123. Here's something to think about for all you Gary Followers that won't be touching silver for a couple of years.
    http://maxkeiser.com/2011/05/19/stacy-blog-show-me-the-silver-bubble/#more-28038

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  124. Jim: My turn. Gary is selling a service. I can't imagine him sharing his account statements. If people do not believe he can do what he says he can, they can cancel. For myself, I have seen his strengths and weaknesses (personal and as a trader). We all have them. No shock that he does too, eh? He could have behaved better, IMO, but then so can you and so can I at times. I will use what I can of his service and not use what seems weak to me. I got called out for pointing out there is a difference between bottom-calling based on cycles (which he is terrific at) and trading tactics (like "silver will hit 50") People are welcome to call me out, but the distinction and his abilities are now clear. Anyone who disregards this learning experience has only himself to blame. He is doing the best he can and owes us nothing, IMO. I pointed out what I thought was not done right; he resisted; done. People have pointed out your stuff as well and you probably I have not rushed to become different overnight. Neither have I. To me it's adapt or cancel at this point. I have made a lot of money off his approach, so I have no intention of canceling, but I am (hopefully) wiser than I was.

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  125. Question to Gary and all...

    If silver is broken, why would a small play in GDXJ be viable? GDXJ has many silver holdings.

    Thank you.

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  126. Elaine,

    Gary said...
    The AAII poll is showing bulls approaching levels last seen at the tsunami bottom. That has pretty consistently led to gains. Plus the dollar is starting to get late in it's daily cycle. If there is going to be a test of the lows it should start soon.

    I'm banking on that pushing gold and stocks higher.

    May 19, 2011 6:51 AM

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  127. Visitor, I'd call what happened in silver a mini-parabola, and I think that market will be back on it's feet part way through the next A wave. Not sure if it will be a better place to invest, though, until the next C wave, and that could be 2 years out -- I think that's why it's probably best to ignore it for quite a while.

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  128. Elane, (my take)
    I don't think silver is broken for the long term. I personally expect to see triple digit silver within a few years. But, then again, I am not a trader any more. I am an investor - Old turkey style. In the short term, yeah it could go down. But usn't silver a better buy at 35 than 50?

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  129. Thank you, Michael.

    So it's more of a pure stock market play and less of a PM play?

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  130. DG, well said. Another point... Gary has changed a bit in the way he will structure the model portfolio, so as to be less volatile, mindful of people risking all their retirement, etc.

    I use the other cycle information on the premium site to help get some grosser idea of timing for my 401k which has no PM option. I'm not convinced it has helped at all yet, but I really only need to do about 1/2% better per year to pay for his service.

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  131. Regarding the dollar...four days in the red, and still no swing reversal. The next day or two should tell us whether this is a consolidating bull flag or if it breaks down. A move above 76.00 and we have our right translated cycle.

    DG, it looks good to me. Just waiting for this puppy to show something tangible.

    f

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  132. SLV volume today is lowest since April 7th.

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  133. Veronica,

    Are you here today?

    I was looking at the 9 day MA, displaced 9 days, but it seems I did not save that as a "study" in TOS.

    I believe you're using the simple moving average for that, right? (as opposed to the exponential MA.)

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  134. Regarding the dollar: If this is a pullback in an ongoing uptrend, 38 percent retrace is certainly possible, and even 50 percent would not negate possibilities for continued uptrend. So far the dollar has not hit the 38 percent retrace, it's retraced about 30 percent.

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  135. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  136. Ben,
    I know it is a personal decision re: timing of investment. I just don't think it is profitable to make broad timing statements like 2 years out it will really take off, so I'll stay away until then, especially when everyone is trying to figure out what's going to happen today/tomorrow. I prefer Gary's old style of a couple years back when Old Turkey meant longer than 6 months.
    Since I believe Gold and Silver will be higher a year from now, I don't need to worry about timing issues. Is there a better opportunity in the mean time? Maybe, Maybe not. Who's to say it (silver) isn't bottoming here and will slowly make it's move up?
    Is playing SPY or GDX or . . . for a short play worth the effort? Not for me.

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  137. Jim,

    I have followed Gary since last July. He had made amazing set of calls over this time frame.

    He got everybody into silver at 18 $ (AGQ @ 55 $).
    His second major buy call was in january with AGQ at 130 $ odd.

    If somebody followed him on either of these 2 buy points, and even sold at 200, they would have still made a lot of money.

    Short term, he got his AGQ sell call a little late but what a damage that little late did!

    I will, without a doubt, continue following him and adjust my portfolio according to my risk profile. He is one of the best I have seen, IMO.

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  138. Jim,

    Get real. All Gary is doing is posting his trading ideas. In no way is he managing your capital. If you don't believe in Gary's approach, do your own work and quit bitching.

    Sincerely your,
    WB

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  139. Jim,

    You're clearly not cut out for trading if that is your conclusion. Sooner or later you'll lose it all and consider yourself fleeced by somebody else while taking no responsibility. For example, who made you listen to Gary? Will you listen to another person next time?

    It doesn't matter what suggestions Gary or anybody else makes, my results are my own, both winners and losers. Risk tolerance and position sizing are just two things that vary with every individual, so laying blame on another for your final results is way off base.

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  140. Bought some nice conservative positions in gdx, not looking to get rich here, just sticking to my plan of countering my shorts if the dollar closes below the 50dmva. Still think this thing could go either way.

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  141. Somebody call the police! Apparently Gary has been holding a gun to Jim's head and forcing him to buy AGQ against his will!

    disclosure: long AGQ, no gun at head.

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  142. no need to be complainin'

    does one have to sign a disclaimer. c'mon

    this is the stock market. nothing is guaranteed.

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  143. I sense a whipsaw opportunity in our future.

    These big downmoves usually have two legs down, separated by a period of drift and/or a modest rally to reset sentiment before the bear crushes it again.

    I think the next down move comes in June. That will mark either an IT bottom or the D-wave bottom.

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  144. Jim,
    What you said can be applied to anybody from yourself to the guy you overhear in the mall.

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  145. Visitor, I expect with the way silver gets slung around that a buying op will present itself. I personally won't make it my major position. I think if the op is a doozy, then Old Turkey through the A-wave.

    Of course, that backfired on the C-wave, d'oh! If I am in silver again, I will look for more clues about when to get out, should a decent run materialize.

    And basic human nature being what it is, so many people were burned that it almost ensures greater selling resistance on the way up, much unlike last time, hence the likelihood of below average returns for a while.

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  146. Another day, another comment bashing Gary.

    I've been a losing trader every year since I started in 2006. Since I started following Gary last fall I was able to make back all my losses and actually turned profitable in March.

    Stop blaming Gary for losses or lost profits and take responsibility for your own actions.

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  147. Jim, your first line says it all, "you are playing with people's livelihood, retirement, etc" INCORRECT! If that is what you believe, then you are just bouncing around the internet going from Guru to Guru seeking someone to make all your trade decisions for you. A sure way to lose it all!

    Take charge my man, own up. Risk control is only something that YOU can do. Each person has a different set of circumstances. And does Gary tell you to "GO ALL IN" on your entire net worth, retirement, etc. He has not. I think you have now seen that many people have benefited from Gary's calls, and sure, he is not 100% right and will admit to this readily.

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  148. I think Jim just gets a kick out of stirring the pot....

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  149. If you don't like Gary's analysis, do us all a favor and STOP READING. GO AWAY. If you piss Gary off to the point where he says "never mind, it's not worth the hassle" and he stops blogging, I will hunt you down and gnaw off your left gonad.

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  150. These wiggles are very strange in the markets. They sure are not saying that a weaker dollar is on the horizon. I have a hard time believing that the US Dollar is the "liar."

    Is it possible that gold makes a run up, gets marginally over 1525 and then gets hammered from there?

    WIth the recent action, I know that the TA indicates we have a clear daily cycle bottom, triangle, yatta, yatta, yatta. But, doesn't it seem like it would take just an earth moving situation to get gold back up solidly over 1500, let alone to a new high?

    How is one to tell if we're in a rally that just has run out of steam or if we care consolidating?

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  151. Volume in SIlver is dwindling just like volume on this board. When msgs here drop to under 100 a day, it will probably be time to look for a bottom.

    Trading tactics based on SMT volume. hmmm, not many are doing it. It could work.

    f

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  152. Its amazing how quickly something can go from media/momo darling to hohum yawner. I, for one, have almost totally lost interest in the preciuos metals complex. I just don;t think its the place to focus energy right now. Wake me up when the peaches are ripe on the trees.

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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  153. muttonfish,

    "I will hunt you down and gnaw off your left gonad"

    thank you, I was hoping I wouldn't have to do it...

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  154. my thoughts, with the USD rallying out. this is going to put the hurt on all commmodities temporarily. and reduce some sideline speculators.

    anything that really goes up might indicate a real demand need.

    so i'm watching all futures to see what unfolds.

    with liquidy being drawn out, will all things return to seasonality trading?

    what are your thoughts on this guys?

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  155. I don't think you can call it exactly bashing what Jim us doing. also, bashing goes both ways, and Jim shouldn't be bashed either.

    Personally I find that Gary can, at times, help me make a good decision and then stick with it. Particularly I like when he goes old turkey. The short term trades I am not so fond of and reviewing the past 18months I believe that is for a good reason. To say that Gary's calls are 'amazing' across the board I consider an overstatement. Some times amazing, I can certainly agree to.

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  156. My thought are as long as no one hunts me down and chews off my gonads I'm a pretty happy camper which ever way the market goes.

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  157. I don't think you can call it exactly bashing what Jim us doing. also, bashing goes both ways, and Jim shouldn't be bashed either.

    Personally I find that Gary can, at times, help me make a good decision and then stick with it. Particularly I like when he goes old turkey. The short term trades I am not so fond of and reviewing the past 18months I believe that is for a good reason. To say that Gary's calls are 'amazing' across the board I consider an overstatement. Some times amazing, I can certainly agree to.

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  158. Let me make the obligatory newbie disclaimer and then ask, if there are no buyers out there for silver, why has the price stablized? Wouldn't it continue to go down if no one was buying? I keep waiting for "the next plunge" but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Thoughts?

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  159. T,
    The easy money has already been made on the downside during the crash. Now it's going to get tough, but silver will ultimately continue down, probably considerably below the 200 DMA by the time golds intermediate cycle bottoms.

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  160. Wow! Must be nice living in a black-and-white world! I love the "its' all your fault/it's all Gary's fault" dichotomy. You are responsible for your own health (obviously) but if your doctor prescribes the wrong medicine, it's not like that's irrelevant. How about your mechanic? Plumber? Accountant? Lawyer? Look, if you leverage yourself like an idiot, of course it's your fault, but like any skilled talented professional, it's not like G is irrelevant here. Every professional makes mistakes, but most of them are a little more open to feedback about those mistakes. It's not like I have not praised Gary to the skies. He's terrific. The best I have seen at calling bottoms, and i have been around forever. But if pointing out a shortcoming of a professional is "bashing" I am not sure what planet I am on. For God's sakes, I train professional at high levels of corporations and government as to how to be more effective. One of the first things I tell them is to look at your weaknesses (everyone has them) figure out what they are, and get better in those areas. He did it as a lifter. He did it in martial arts. Why not as an advisor? And how is what I am saying "bashing" anyone? If the person pointing this out is rude and accusatory that's one thing, but there ought to be room to discuss flaws in approach.

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  161. This was interesting

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/17_Faros_-_Euro_Headed_Swiftly_Back_to_1.50.html

    "We believe that just as the move from 1.4920 to 1.4050 was fast; the move from 1.4150 back to 1.5000 will be just as swift on the back of rising interest rate differentials, greater certainty and market positioning"

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  162. From Peter schiff! Very funny

    "The crazy thing is that I’m even hearing talk about the US selling its gold to help fund its debts. That would be the worst thing we could do. The last thing we would want to sell is our gold, I mean if we sold that then that would be it, we would have nothing. The dollar would just become complete confetti.”

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  163. I don't think you can call it bashing what Jim wrote. And bashing works both ways, so Jim shouldn't be bashed either for voicing his opinion. I for one like a certain diversity on a blog.

    I can say that Gary has probably helped me at times in my decision making process and then with sticking to that decision. I like when he goes old turkey and proves to hold with a strong hand. I am not crazy about the short term trades, and when reviewing the past 18 months or so that I am following this blog, I think I have good reason.
    To say Gary's calls are 'amazing' across the board, sounds like an overstatement to me. Some times amazing, I can agree to.

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  164. You guys are unbelievable. You're seriously going to take the time to dissect my choice of words?

    I named no one person in my post, but yes, it was directed at Jim. He made an attack at Gary. I call it bashing.

    I guess this is what I deserve for feeding a troll.

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  165. If I may, I think I can add some insight to Jim's comments. Like myself, he probably subscribed to Gary's service because he is not an Econ Ph.D., professional trader, or charting guru. I think the term y'all like to use is newbie. Jim assumed Gary to be much more knowledgeable than him, so followed his advice. Gary can use very definitive language in his posts. Many times he doesn't leave the less-educated reader believing there is any possible outcome other than what he has predicted. And many financial advisors will tell you that their biggest frustration is when their clients pick and chose which advice to follow. Jim followed Gary's model because Gary announced that what he was seeing in his charts was correct. Period. No room for error. I myself ignored my greatest lesson, which is to implement sell stops to protect hard fought gains. And let's be clear here. Unless you bought in to silver at under $30 an ounce or so or ignored Gary's advice and used stops, there is no way you could have made money on this broken parabola. I believe Gary is very intelligent and knows what he is talking about the large majority of the time. If I could make one suggestion, it would be this: allow for the opportunity of being wrong in the posts. Use language in the posts that suggest there is room for error or other possibilities. I know this is what got me upset. Yes, I know. I have "manned up". I have accepted responsibility for my own trades. But Jim isn't angry for Gary being wrong. He is angry because he assumed Gary knew more than him, and Gary never left open even the slightest possibility that his projections could be wrong until it was too late. We are all human. All make mistakes. We just need to allow (publicly perhaps) for that outcome. This is not a bash. I appreciate Gary's service. I am just trying to interpret what I think Jim was trying to convey.

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  166. DG,

    "People with histrionic personality disorder are constant attention seekers. They also tend to exaggerate friendships and relationships, believing that everyone loves them. "

    Man, is that you, or what? Did you realize nobody was referring to you in that last conversation?

    basil,

    I don't recall anybody saying Gary's "amazing" all the time. You already quit the site before, so cut the dramatics.

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  167. Let me get something straight. Everyone seems to think I got it wrong on silver. Let's review shall we.

    Who said to get into silver back in August of 10 and just hold on?

    Who kept you holding long after everyone else was calling a top?

    Who told you to fore-go stops during that time because your stops would have just kicked you out for very small gains or you would have whipsawed yourself into losses?

    Who told you months in advance that if silver made it through $40 it would most likely make it to $50?

    Who told you in the weekend report that we would be exiting silver on that Monday morning because I felt it was time to convert to gold?

    Who knew the gap down on Monday was going to lead to a $17 sell off in only 5 days? That's right NO ONE did.

    So after getting every single call right on the money for month after month do you really think you can say I got it wrong because I couldn't see into the future and spot a 30% selloff?

    Don't forget that not one other person in the world that I know of spotted this. So do you really expect me to see something that no one saw. Not Doc, not DG, not Poly, not Jim Rogers, not Marc Faber, not Peter Schiff, no one.

    I guess people just see what they want to see, and 100 good calls don't make up for one missed call even though everyone in the world missed the same call.

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  168. I agree, know one saw the big drop coming. Don't let the few people get to you. You got it 99.9% right and they want it 100%. I will confess though, I did get lucky and sell on 4 25 because is was "close enough" and DG sold at the open.

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  169. Gary,

    you made a fantastic call in August and you saw silver going to 50. I felt that your confidence in the C wave was an enormous assurance throughout, no doubt.
    I like your cycle analysis, and that is why I am reading your report every night. The fact that you did not hit the exact top by the cent, I don't think anyone can say that's a wrong call, I certainly don't.

    To say in general, that your ratio of good calls to bad calls is 100:1, that is perhaps going a bit far, don't you think? Let's just say that your quota is a very good one.

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  170. Do you seriously think that I'm trying to say I've made 100 correct calls and only one missed call, or do you think maybe I was just making a point?

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  171. probably the latter ;)

    you made that point very strongly though... and as far as I understood some of the above, it was less about one specific call?

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  172. I sold 12,000 shares of SLW @ $43.65, at the open, the morning Barnes resigned. I bought AGQ the next day @ $256. I sold at the open Monday morning, after the Sunday night jack. Never went back.

    I sold a little soon, as AGQ rallied at first, after I sold. By the end of trading Monday I was relieved. By the end of the week, I was elated.

    Best of all, I got my friends and family out with me. There were a few happy endings.

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  173. Let me point out that not one single one of you would have got lucky and exited early without me.

    I'm the one who pointed out weeks in advance the 06 crash. I'm the one who weeks in advance prepared you to look for an exit at $50.

    Instead of the constant badgering a simple thank you would be more appropriate don't you think?

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  174. Gary

    Please stop trying to defend yourself. Your statement on calls is spot on and know one can take that away from you.
    I just hope you don't throw your arms up one day and say " too hell with em. I quit" and stop the blog. I would be greatly disappointed as would many others.

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  175. Gary,

    I agree.

    Thank you!

    MD

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  176. Gary. I think the whiners don't realise how lucky they are to have you.
    Now, I have a question for you. Given that the stock market's current intermediate cycle is in Week 9, and its normal cycle range is 18-24 weeks, would you think equities will be seeking an intermediate low sometime from the middle of July to the end of August, and that following that low we should see 2-3 left-translated intermediate cycles leading to a stock market bottom in late 2012 or early 2013?

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  177. Gary,

    I have all my pm holdings in a couple of well managed mutual funds, and I don't trade them, so I am probably as unbiased as anyone who posts here. Been a subscriber since last June, and your recommendations on silver have been brilliant, even though I didn't take advantage of them. Thank you!

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  178. Gary,
    Don't let the angry people get to you seriously. Thank you for all you do here.

    Everyone else,
    I'm in the group that didn't get out in time SO WHAT (and yes it was a very substantial amount). It was my trade and I'm the one that decided to try to hold on. It was a wild ride and what a learning experience. If it wasn't for Gary, I wouldn't have even been able to hold through the Japan low in the first place. For the lucky one's that got out or converted to gold, I have a very strong suspicion that it was Gary's guidance that helped them so he deserves a HUGE thank you.

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  179. Actually, I wasn't reading you then, but I listened to 2 of your interviews on Bullion Bulls. I was very impressed with your cycle analysis, and did factor your predictions into my investment strategy.

    You mention AGQ. I also read about it repeatedly on the SLW message board. Turd Ferguson also said AGQ was a good choice in his 1 hour radio interview.

    The most important point is, I factored all the input I was receiving, and made my call. Unless I hand someone authority to trade my account, then was up to me to make the trades.

    PS I really believe my experiece with Home Solutions (HSOA), gave me an advance degree on market manipulation. I sold because Sunday night was a drive by shooting, not a correction. Almost nothing traded, and silver went down $6 in 10 minutes. I called the manipulation technique, "The Midnight Jack", and cried bloody murder when they did it to HSOA. This time I realize what it meant. Get out!

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  180. Smart Money Tracker Death Pool:

    If you guess the person who finally posts the comment that makes Gary close the site you win a burrito.

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  181. Ladies and Gentleman:

    Can we please right here, right now just agree we can't change the past? We can learn from what just happened and take our own lessons away? We are here to learn from each other and make money. Let's not get caught up in some long drawn out spasm of guilt, anger, blame, etc.

    Can we now move on and let the past be the past? Let's hold any future poster who decided to bring this up as well to stop it dead in it's tracks. This all feels like a giant waste of time, energy and effort that can put to use pursuing today and tomorrow's opportunities.

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  182. E,
    That would be my best guess.

    This intermediate cycle could even still end up being left translated hence why I want to exit the SPY trade as soon as I think the market is ready to head down into the half cycle low.

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  183. gary
    i think you have had many thankyous. you have had many from me. i have a few grips every so often, but i have a few grips with God also.
    so again thankyou for your knowlege and shareing with us.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Just for the record, David Morgan called the top, sold, and said the CME would raise margins. He also called the top in '08, and I ignored him. That time I rode 16,000 shares of SLV down to $9. When I heard his call, and saw Sunday's action, i figured he was tipped off. Just like Gartman gets tipped off, IMO.

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  185. Thank you for that Gary.
    I know you mentioned that we could be spinning our wheels for a year or so after the a-wave while we are waiting until the c-wave starts getting going again. BUT, what's wrong with investing in a 1x inverse etf of the stock market during the time precious metals are in the doldrums? Surely that is a good opportunity? As far as I am aware cycles can be used to track the daily and intermediate cycles as before. I'm not a pro like you so maybe I'm missing something? Thanks for any thoughts

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  186. I got in late and lost some when I held on too long. My fault. All of the hand wringers, finger pointers and cry babies should realize the great value they get here and learn to be constructive and civil when they disagree. Take responsibility for your trades.

    This is the best blog I know of with much to learn from Gary and the community. The best money making opportunities lie ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  187. Gary,

    I say fuck'em. You have nothing to prove. Nobody is going to get it right 100% of the time. N O B O D Y. Its easy to look back and say we should have done this or that after the fact. Imagine for a moment that the sell off would have occured 1 day later, one measley day later...You would be a freakin hero today. Some people on this board would have named there next child after you, whether it was a boy or girl... CNBC would probably have called you to go on there show... You would have been the next judge on American Idol...and sadly, you would probably have had to closed this blog because of your commitments. and then what...These same people would probably be begging you to stay on, throwing there loads of cash at you to stay, the cash YOU helped them make...

    So take a bow, keep your chin up, and know that are alot of people on this board that you have helped and go with that. CHEERS.

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  188. E,
    Bear markets are tough. Much tougher to make money in than bull markets. I will try to make money in the bear but everyone has to have realistic goals. We aren't going to get rich in a bear market.

    BTW Morgan had been trying to call a top in silver for months. If you listened to him you missed most of the move.

    ReplyDelete

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