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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Altrernate strategy posted

An alternate strategy has been posted to the website.

1,563 comments:

  1. Matthew - What exactly did you mean by "Gary has already crossed that line"

    He can write what he wants as long as he doesn't give peronalized, individual advice.

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  2. OMG sell it now....ride the whole drop

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  3. Always ready to step up for your subs. Even the whiny ones.

    Thanks Gary. Appreciate EVERYTHING you do.

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  5. Yes! I love these alternate strategies by Gary. They come at bottoms when there is panic on the blogs and Gary feels as if he needs to give something to alleviate it. The bottom must be very close.

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  7. Gary, are you going to follow the alternate strategy?

    I really think we're so close to a swing low that this will probably not be worth it...of course you never know.

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  8. AGQ is at 199

    Not too bad...

    I was expecting much worse based on Gary's new post.

    I'll hold

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  9. For all of those who are looking for Miner strength as some sort of leading indicator for a Metals bottom, I would be cautious. It was clear to me during Silvers run up that the popular trade amongst the large trading desks was to go long the Physical and go Short the Miners as a hedge (It worked beautifully in hindsight). Now that is appears those trades are being unwound you are seeing support for the Miners through short covering.

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  10. anyone see the volume on ZSL .. 48M shares so far .. already 7x normal volume.

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  11. Gary - was the turn in the dollar within a day plus or minus of the employment numbers due tomorrow the upturn we saw today?

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  12. I bought in yesterday at 235

    (thinking great bargain)

    Never do that again, wait til the swing low or gradually scale in...

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  14. The 10 EMA rejected again, amazing.

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  15. This is priceless experience. We are experiencing the backside of a parabola in real time with skin in the game. If you're losing, make it count, take lessons out of this that cover the cost of entry.

    By the way, this will definitely bounce, and hard. The question remains, will it make a new high or roll over?

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  16. Qualitystocks-

    You seem to be enjoying this too much. Can you elaborate? Seems like you were an older sub...Maybe you missed the ride and are now rubbing it in?

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  17. Hard to believe, but EXK under $9 and SVM under $11 now.

    It feels like more downside in the near future, but I hope these stay around here for another day or two.

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  18. I'm one of the youngest and least experienced traders on here, but I (think) I have common sense.

    Let me just throw this out there, and then I need to step out.

    Don't lose faith in Gary. He is right FAR more often then he is wrong. I think he WILL make us a lot more money in the months and years to come if we stick with him.

    Ah, but what do you need to stick with him? (well, other than the annual membership). You need CAPITAL.

    Your capital is your "chips" in this game. If you lose so much that the demands of living life in the Ben Bernank's banana republic prevents you from trading with Gary, you are OUT OF THE GAME.

    You can always make money if you preserve enough chips to trade, and Gary will more often than not make us money.

    For me, I trimmed today because of my personal life constraints....I would still be up big, PLUS I could rest easy knowing I had enough cash to pay loans later this year. Simple. Not dictated by panic, but by my PERSONAL situation.

    Again, think of your PERSONAL situation. Think of how many "chips" you will need to keep playing along with Gary.

    Hope that helps some people as you decide what to do in the coming days.

    Now, I need to run an errand.

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  19. Gary - I presume your are not selling anything at this time. You just mentioned your options.

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  20. I feel bad for the guys like KAL who got in AGQ & GLD options towards the top. Hope they are ok.

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  21. This is a tough one. I feel we are very close to atleast a major bounce in silver after the carnage of last week!

    What is everybody doing. Gettng out or waiting for bounce.

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  22. Had to do it, bought SVM under $11

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  23. I was one of the new members who bought at the top.. well technically I bought silver when it was 42 dollars and held on till this massive drop. Just sold all my agq positions which accounted for 50% of my portfolio and now waiting for that swing low to confirm that this correction is over. I wish Gary would've mentioned this earlier but thanks for the advice anyway.

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  24. Was that the SMTers selling after Gary posted?

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  25. damnit, out at the low. really bad feeling. just wanna die

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  26. Jayhawk - I'm also thinking of Kal (and his beautiful family).

    My hope is he wasn't too extended and is riding this out elsewhere--somewhere fun--or at least not staring at the screen.

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  27. UGH, decisions. . .decisions. . .Seems like selling at the lows now to convert to gold.

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  28. at ease,

    Its a "good" afternoon only if you like getting kicked when you are down....or...if you sold at 48 and have stayed out since then.

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  29. I hope we have a double bottom that holds. I am now reduced to the "hope" trade. Lol

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  30. Hey, if Shalom's buying, we must be close as my experience of him has been that he has nerves of steel in patiently waiting for buying opps.

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  31. Puked. Sold all AGQ. I was no more heavily leveraged than Gary but as leverage decreased with rising price, I bought more to keep leverage at 140%. That helped kill the trade. Decent sized loss. Still own SIL and SLW.

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  32. T&J,

    The way I read the post was that its purpose was to show what was accomplished by following Gary's calls.

    You, however, just assumed the post was all about bragging. Or maybe your blog lie detector gives you a reading on intent as well?

    Very handy tool, that thing is. Although it doesn't have a whole lot of practical value really, unless you just enjoy taking potshots at other people's posts here and elsewhere.

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  33. This is my lesson.

    Silver:
    buy @ 29
    buy @ 33
    sell all @ 47.5 ( what a great trade)
    buy again @ 48.5
    sell @ 44.5 ( great drop in pre-market)
    buy @ 41.5 ( thinking 30SMA will hold)
    sell @ 35.7 (today)

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  34. Gold Era,

    Looking at your history...seems like you should always wait for a swing-low before you rebuy. I just learned a hard lesson today too after selling half of my positions (AGQ)

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  35. I can't believe we are selling AGQ here.

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  36. SB,

    I followed your lead, picked up a small position in SVM. It's the only silver miner I now own. Have small positions in GDXJ, AXU, and NG as well, but those are primarily gold miners (except GDXJ does have some silver miners in their mix, I believe).

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  37. Selling has dried up under 36...

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  38. Pima -

    He could have easily made the point without disclosing that he had made $8 million is the point.

    It's not so considerate either reading here that a lot of people are losing huge amounts of their accounts. It only solidifies in their mind that they failed since they too didn't make millions.

    By the way - why are you the defender of the multi-millionaire? Only one taking potshots here would be you at this point.

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  39. This is brutal. /GC intermediate channel is still in play though...1460's down there. 50 DMA on gold 1455.

    http://screencast.com/t/VAKFfnb9yo9V


    Sorry about some of the people here who got caught in that silver plunge with AGQ. Terrible. Ugh. I'm sick.

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  40. I know what many think of intrady patterns and it may be a bit of wishful thinking....but DX on an hourly sure looks like a rounded top forming. Look at the declining volume. There, I feel better now :)

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  41. I must say its a little disconcerting that this is the capitulation event that we have been waiting for and because the pain has gotten so extensive we are now going to take massive losses, dump AGQ and hope to jump back in on a swing low in gold.
    Hard to ride this wave all the way down (figuring it was a healthy correction) only to sell at the bottom...Sucks

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  42. BTW, in my trade, sell @ 47-79 will result buy @ 41 as a follower of Gary. still ride the drop from 41 to 35 as Gary said this only is a correction( I am not blame to Gary, just my personal decision based on SMT, and I will do it). For me, I will hold tight as Gary didn't make any move and result in selling @35 today.

    What should I improve my plan and learn the lesson? Riding this drop is the most bad feeling in my life.

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  43. I know that I'll definitely sell one lot of silver futures if/when we cross 34.90 (which when I put the trade on at 48 seemed very unlikely that we'd ever reach).

    As for the rest, it's also starting to hurt badly since gold too is in free fall now. I'll most likely sell more of my leveraged positions tomorrow when European markets are open again. I don't want to leave myself without any capital if this turns out really bad.

    This has turned out like getting on a Six Flags ride, prepared for your standard rollercoaster thrills and instead getting a f#€&ing moonshoot.

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  44. no sellin here 4 me. to everyone that did I understand.

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  45. For the record, Rick Ackerman (hidden pivot trader... very successful over the last few years) has gone crazy bullish bullion along with Peter Grandich. Grandich happened to call the decline within minutes of the top, and he's all in, noting that what he's seen over the last few days has triggered a buy indicator that he's only seen a few times in his entire trading career.

    Interview is as follows http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/peter-grandich/

    I would not be selling AGQ right now and will not.

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  46. I think this is all an illusion. I will keep my AGQ.

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  47. As I read through the T1 document again (at Cory's suggestion), and then looked at the silver charts, I was struck by 2 things:

    1) the consolidation zone to which we need to correct is 31 ish.
    2) the two T1 retrace examples in Gary's Terminology document occurred during the initial stages of a D-Waves.


    Haggerty-

    You can always buy AGQ back...the current silver selling shows no real sign of abating...although I'm hoping.

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  48. Seems that one way to play this to reduce the bleeding is to dump the double long etf's like AGQ, DGP, and UGL, and give yourself similar (or less) exposure by using in the money call options on GLD. But not too deep in the money, delta of .7 to .8, for example. If GLD goes back to its recent highs, you'll do almost as well as you would with the double long etf's, but if it continues to drop, the options will not lose value as quickly as the etf's. If you do this, be sure to give yourself enough time on the calls. After dumping part of my UGL position, I picked up the equivalent exposure in GLD July 134 calls. I also dumped most of my SLV position, but I am not planning to buy any SLV calls. I think Silver is toast for a while, although it might do a 50 percent retrace of the drop (taking it back to 43 or so) if/when we get a bounce.

    'course if we just keep dropping, buying the calls will just be another way to lose money, just not as fast, that's all.

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  49. Gary's discussion Friday and the weekend report convinced me to buy 5% allocation to silver puts to hedge my gold position for the eventual parabola collapse of silver. After seeing the gap down on Monday I froze and decided not to. I had no idea it would commence this week.

    That would have been an epic trade in hindsight! Oh well, live and learn.

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  50. farm girl.. you haven't been at this game for very long...Gary is giving investing advice...and has crossed the SEC line..Right from the SEC Website

    Who Is an Investment Adviser?
    Subject to certain limited exclusions discussed below, Section 202(a)(11) of the Advisers Act generally defines an "investment adviser" as any person or firm that: (1) for compensation; (2) is engaged in the business of; (3) providing advice, making recommendations, issuing reports, or furnishing analyses on securities, either directly or through publications. A person or firm must satisfy all three elements to be regulated under the Advisers Act.

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  51. Thanks for the Grandich interview, TraderRob -- nice to listen to something "comforting."

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  52. Gary,

    You have got to be kidding me. I am a fairly new subscriber and I went with Gary instead of my gut. My lesson learned through this is never, ever trade without some kind of tailing stop.

    Dave

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  53. Trading thoughts: What is absolutely paramount is not to lose much of your stake. Please, memorize that thought, and NEVER forget it. There is no recovery from zero capital. I do not generally speak in absolutes, as you all know, but this is one (perhaps thee only one). For myself I never let a position that was well in the black go into the red (remember my break-even stop idea?)

    If you get out it clears your head. You can always get back in. 90% of the resistance people have to getting out is to avoid the horrible feeling of having the sold item take off as soon as it is sold. GET OVER THAT FEELING---IT WILL COST YOU MORE THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE OVER THE YEARS. It is pure ego that can't accept having blown it. Very expensive.

    It's funny, I had just starting selling my AGQ before Gary posted. I am ahead for the year now, my mind is clearer, and I can start fresh. I should make lots of money the rest of this year. Why open myself up to damage here? I lost my entire bankroll years ago and made it all back and more. I ain't doin' that again. Let's learn and go forward. Hang in there guys!

    Poly and Fubsy: I have really been enjoying your level-headed posts. It's great to have you both here. Thanks!

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  54. This is the biggest weekly loss of SLV in five years. also, I have a fib chart that traced out the 08 lows with the Dec 31 high. $30.99 is the number.

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  55. SLW filled the last gap today.

    Could be a potential reversal end-of-day?

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  56. Matthew - there is an exception for newsletter that are perioducals of general circulation. SEC vs. Lowe

    The only newsletter editors that are registered are those who are borkers or money managers.

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  57. First off I can't believe people can't own up to their own trades and feel the need to blame someone. I sold out today in the morning and believe me it was a massive hit but no one forced me to buy in the first place.

    Another thing, if you do believe there's still a c-wave to come, I don't see a problem with selling here and buying back on a confirmed swing? I've learned my lesson from 2X leveraged ETF's before and you DO NOT want to keep holding if it keeps on dropping. The decay will kill you. I'm not here to scare you or recommending you to sell.

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  58. Alternate strategy:
    If this gaps up big tomorrow or Monday, I'd lose my position, and then where would I be?

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  59. Lot of traders just mentally and emotionally defeated...

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  60. sounds like a bottom to me james

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  61. TJ-

    Interesting...That's right where the 200 DMA is, as well as the channel low off the summer rally. And where the 78.6% FIB level is for this current intermediate cycle.

    http://screencast.com/t/8iruxnyqMiw

    So, what happened in other D waves from your research once it hit that point?

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  62. T&J,

    I am calling YOU out for presuming to know that another person's post was either a lie or bragging. How can you possibly know what a person's intent was in making a post?

    And why does it bother you so much if someone took 2 million and turned it into 10 million? I find that inspiring and hopeful. Apparently you do not. But that's no reason to assume the worst about why they made the post.

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  63. Matthew, gold and silver are commodities, and are regulated not by the SEC, but the FTC.

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  64. Matthew,

    No offense, but you sound like a baby. I've been getting the same advice from Gary as you have, so how do you explain my results?

    The SEC might just laugh at you. :)

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  65. James r said:

    "Lot of traders just mentally and emotionally defeated..."

    Perhaps that should tell us something.

    Having said that, DGs comment above about preserving capital is RULE #1.

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  66. could someone please regulate Matthew?

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  67. Putting my prediction on the line: Dollar rally to 74.5 in response to tomorrow's "news", followed by continuation of the waterfall decline. Then, it's off to the races again. Yeah, I've seen my account balance blowtorched this week like many here, but I have a feeling it will be short lived. I didn't sell into the '08 decline either, however, and (outside of some option position expiring OTM), came out quite well. I especially liked doubling down on my SLW around $4. Ah, those were the days.

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  68. Vonda, your dog will still love you no matter what happens in silver :o)

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  69. Dow:Gold ratio now 8.6:1

    No way I'm even considering selling any of my pm holdings until that ratio gets below 2:1

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  70. Great post DG

    Once we didn't die yet, OPs are spread around the world. So, do not worth to take that risk in case gold really in D-wave.

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  71. Gary
    You post this as an alternate strategy, has your overall view changed?

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  72. When people are getting mean, it means it's time to remove the hedges and go long.

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  73. Larry,


    I hope so. I ready to puch the trigger if this baby reverses.

    I did sell some AGQ to lighten the load margin.

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  74. Matthew,
    Gary hasn't crossed any SEC line. He is taking compensation for providing a newsletter. He is not acting as a registered advisor or taking compensation for providing investment advice.

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  75. Guys -

    Don't be so enamored with trying to catch this falling knife and calling bottoms. What you are witnessing is a crash in the silver market.

    The scary thing is that the market can drop to the low to mid $20's and still be in a long term up trend. After crashes like this, you might see a quick bounce, but rarely will it go to new highs. It will probably trade in a range after this carnage, giving you ample time to get back on for another ride up if that will happen. After big drops, everyone mentally is so worried about missing out on the retrace that they think will happen just as quickly.

    Things fundamentally changed with the massive CME maring hikes. A lot of speculators who helped ramp the market are getting blown out, and may not have the juice to rip it right back from where it came.

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  76. piling on: i'm out of PSLV a dollar less than i paid for it yesterday. don't like how the 1PM candle closed on /SI. pointing to $32-33 according to my jazz.

    this thing will probably bounce here but i do think we'll get lower prices before Thee bottom. all i know is that this morning i was feeling more "hopeful" than satisfied with this trade and that was enough for me to pull the plug.

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  77. Pima 1
    Dead Horse 0

    time to move on dude

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  78. TJ,

    Good plan about trimming. (I believe you directed a post to Jennifer that suggested she trim.)

    I did a little of that today. My only regret is that I didn't start earlier, as in yesterday or the day before. One thing that prevented me was fear of selling at the bottom. But guess what, you don't have to sell everything! Sell it piecemeal, stop the arterial bleeding, slow it down to a trickle. You can always put back on the positions you sold and maybe even at a better price.

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  79. Just sold everything I had (AGQ,DGP and some DITM SLV Calls). Will wait for the swing low to jump back in but man what a beating. Have to preserve the capital so that you still have chips to ante into another game...

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  80. Beanie has now a chance to increase his reputation when this massacre is over.

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  81. I am not a savvy trader ... no Ta, no cycles no charts ... just my gut and Gary.

    I scaled in early (all silver) and scaled out on the way up converted HZU to HBU near the top and continued scaling out of silver on the way down.
    Sitting with 100% cash and my PM trade still up almost 100% ... could have been 150% but I can live with that.

    Thank you Gary

    I have be around long enough to know that parabolic rises never end happily.
    My timing ALWAYS sucks but that just means I never make as much as I could and I never lose as much as I should and I am very pleased with that.
    I will wait for a swing and do it again hopefully ...
    Gary I think your timing is amazing and no one could have predicted this drop in silver ...
    Thanks and looking forward to the next run

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  82. I don't know about you guys, but my biggest lesson learned, and one that I think I'll respect for the rest of my life is nothing but a simple trend following truth: have rules for entry and exit – and then follow them.

    This is the second time I go deep in the red, the last was the summer slump of 2010. Both times a daily correction turned into something much more serious than expected.

    So even if it means missing a few points here and there I'll be inclined to get out on every daily swing high and not enter until there is a daily swing low.

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  83. Sell now? You have got to be kidding me!

    Well, if Old Turkey Savage has capitulated, then we most be near a bottom.

    Sheesh.

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  84. Dollar nearing 2009 lows, should be at least a pause if not a rejection.

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  85. Shouldn't miners be down a lot more? If we were really tanking?

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  86. Dammit Jayhawk- you're always asking the right questions! ;-)

    Let me take a look.

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  87. Looking at GLD & SLV level 2 quotes, there are slightly more buyers than sellers. Not so for miners..

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  88. I ordered a couple of these, which saves me on replacing keyboards:

    http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/11QYX723hdL._SS500_.jpg

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  89. Eamonn, I might have to send my dogs out to hunt for all of us!

    Just kidding. I'm weathering this one fairly well. But, as others have said, I feel just sick for anyone who's wrestling with an intolerable threshold.

    For me, it's not the literal losses as much as the loss in confidence. FWIW, I had the same sick kind of feel that Sunday night silver thrusted higher -- something I will pay more attention to in the future.

    Glad to see you are still here, Eamonn!
    (Send dog food!!)

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  90. Well at least my canker soar finally healed today..

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  91. Matthew - from http://www.seclaw.com/docs/RIAOverview.htm

    Newsletters

    We are often asked if the publisher of an investment newsletter is required to be registered as an investment adviser. As noted above, Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (15 U.S.C. § 80b-2(a)(11)), which is a key federal law, defines "investment adviser" in part as "any person who, for compensation, engages in the business of advising others, either directly or through publications or writings, as to the value of securities or as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing, or selling securities, or who, for compensation and as part of a regular business, issues or promulgates analyses or reports concerning securities."

    However, expressly excluded from the definition is "the publisher of bona fide newspaper, news magazine or business or financial publication of general and regular circulation."

    Section 401(f) of the Uniform Securities Act, upon which the majority of state securities laws are based, similarly excludes from the definition of investment adviser "a publisher of any bona fide newspaper, news column, newsletter, news magazine, or business or financial publication or service, whether communicated in hard copy form, or by electronic means, or otherwise, that does not consist of the rendering of advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of each client."

    Since a bona fide newsletter publisher is not an investment adviser, registration as such is not required.

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  92. The May GLD 160 calls that I paid $.02 for now have "N/A" for the bid.

    That's kind of funny I suppose.

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  93. james

    How have your previous cankers correlated with silver bottoms? Can you give us some hope? :)

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  94. Hey Vonda and others! Hope you are well.

    Yep, have about 90% of the retirement in AGQ. My choice for personal reasons, and I gladly own it. It's great to live in a country where I am free to invest. This has been a good education.

    I will be fine... I'm young still and I know that after learning from Gary retirement is possible someday. If I had stayed in mutual funds and self-picked stocks, that never would have happened with the small salary I make.

    Gary didn't force you to invest, you chose to. Own your decisons and your gains and losses as well, and move forward. That's my goal here.

    Be safe everyone!

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  95. Farm Girl - you have sufficiently blown up matthew at this point. If he thought he was making a legitimate point (he wasn't with the SEC stuff), then he should be gone...

    if he keeps it up then he's just here to stir up trouble... i'd ignore from now on

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  96. Hurray Kal!!

    Nice of you to post and great to see you (alive and well)!!!!

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  97. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  98. One other point: A swing low just means a possible rally has started. AS swing low means yesterday's high was bested without the low being violated. It assures you of nothing. East to have a swing low and then plunge...just for the record. If it happens during the timing band for a bottom the presumption is that if a rally gets started that's it, but it is just a presumption. (If I have hits wrong someone please correct me)

    Unrelated:
    Damn Poly! Every post of yours has me nodding my head. "Show some respect and civility, it's during a "crisis", ones true colors are revealed. Well said.

    On Gary's behalf: This is a brilliant investor with a load of integrity. I am and have always been impressed. I have always felt, however, that the market is lilke a heat-seeking missle. It finds your weakness and homes in on it, and one day, Bang! Every single trader (and person) has weaknesses. the question is how we compensate for them and build a strategy that takes them into account, IMO

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  99. Looks like very strong support at silver trading at 34 dollars

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5BBc0kfs1xU/TcKl0L6P6oI/AAAAAAAAA2k/6ZjcgC3_CA0/s1600/5-5amsilv.jpg

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  100. Pima-

    I'm not a particularly good trader yet. But I do have the ability to sell to stop the bleeding - that's got to be a talent, of sorts. :-)

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  101. When I read the disclaimer on the main blog page I thought it was pretty clear...

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  102. Jonas,

    I wish I could say 'yes', but I hope it's a good sign.



    James

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  103. Bollinger band crash trade on silver can kick in any day now.

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  104. Vonda, I bailed out at silver spot = $41. I needed to protect my core capital. I lost all my profits though.
    I am hopeful that this crash will portent a huge rise again in silver.
    In any case, I have learned a lot from this.
    Its been a hard few days

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  105. This is a chart from Turd:

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5BBc0kfs1xU/TcKl0L6P6oI/AAAAAAAAA2k/6ZjcgC3_CA0/s1600/5-5amsilv.jpg

    I'd say sentiment is just about sufficiently bearish.

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  106. O.K. For the first time in 35 years my stomach in a knot has given a bad signal. First time for everything, unfortunately. Vuvvy's signal not doing much better.

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  107. I may add back a few shares I sold if we get some kind of end-of-day reversal.

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  108. Guys get ready!!!

    This may be it

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  109. Ben,

    That's funny. (But I went ahead and ordered one for me too :-)

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  110. lol, we'll find strong support at zero. :)

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  111. I agree. Why sell agq now when we have not even taken out the last daily cycle low?

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  112. Eamonn,

    So glad to hear it!
    Seems you have internalized the primary wisdom: protect capital. Excellent!

    Going out to walk with said dogs. Hope I don't miss too much excitement, but if the PMs would like to put in an EOD reversal, ok by me.

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  113. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  114. Good one, SB! For the longs, zero is certainly the place where uncertainty disappears!

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  115. gary
    I am looking at $HUI at July, 2010. The chart looks similar. Does that mean we have to wait for another 2 weeks before $HUI take off?? does that fit your cycles analysis?

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  116. Zero is too high. I'm holding out for someone paying me to haul away all their heavy physical.

    Anyone?

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  117. Hi all,

    I subscribed recently and have lurked around the comments section as silver went up and came back down. I'd like to add a few things from my perspective, take it for what it's worth.
    1. AGQ - Leveraged ETFs decay. Silver may drop from $50 to $35 and then go up to $50 again. If/when that happens, AGQ won't be $380, it'll be much lower. Read this article if you're not familiar with this concept. http://seekingalpha.com/article/119316-double-and-triple-etfs-decay-their-value-faster-by-design
    2. You may take analysis from anywhere but at the end of the day, YOU trade your money. Every trader is different. Some people can take massive drawdowns and patiently wait out a counter move as long as they know they're right. Others, like myself, can not. Which is why I closed my positions on Monday. When I first started trading years ago, I almost blew out my account under similar circumstances. It was tough at the time but I learned from my mistakes and have been better off because of the experience. It is important to know your trading style and trade according to that.
    3. Lastly, gold is currently battling with support at $1475. I hope for everyone's sake that it holds. But in case it doesn't, the next stop is $1440.
    For people who are taking a loss, I hope that you can make it back in the coming weeks.
    "If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out,
    because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start." - Paul Tudor Jones

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  118. 1474 is the bottom for gold. It's back up from here.

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  119. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  120. Timmy Knight nailed this sh!t on the miners. Kudos to him.

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  121. I did what someone proposed here and pulled up a lt. chart of silver and went to the back of the room.
    There is still much space to the downside before I would consider a trend support.It comes in around 32,50$. We sure dont need to go there but I will be waiting a bit longer with adding more.

    But as Future traders are the gods de jour, I think we will,(IF), get the bounce over night.
    And dont forget to look at the euro/dollar pair with the euro beeing more than 40% of the DX basket. Next resistance should come in about 1% lower from here (1.4400)so there is still downside space which can be filled.

    And my two cents: Garry has done an outstanding job and everybody is responsible for their own accounts.
    I guess lots of people here which dont trade for a living still have to learn how to manage risk. That is the most import thing when you play the markets. I have to admit I although got caught big time, blinded by greed for more $$.
    But I dont use leverage and still have, even after a 30-40% haircut in my PM positions,profits left. And that is Garrys genuine work.

    Thanks Garry I hope if silver bounces back I can drive over to swiss in June and invite to a German Thank You beer.

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  122. Sb, Do I keep the miners now into the "A" wave???

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  123. When I got hit hard in fall of 08 (before I found Gary) I did all of the common things (short bull markets, overleverage with OTM options, use too much leverage in general, rely too much on indicators) and I had traded for 4 years consistently.

    What I was trying to say (specifically to T&J) was that going long a bull market, adding at intermediate cycle lows,and holding Old Turkey is the only way I've made the kind of money that I think we are all trying to make, and it's because of the lessons Gary has taught me and time (you won't make money overnight).

    Even in a bull market, in the intermediate term there is only one buying chance guaranteed to make you money, and that is at a low like right now:

    At a low: weak hand, invest capital and wait to reach strong hand status, then add margin

    In a consolidation: weak hand, invest capital and be willing to live thru wiggles in account balance, and even after a good run up, it might retest consolidation and you might be dead-even, this is where you add margin and becom strong hand

    In an uptrend/top: weak hand, get some capital in the game, but if it retests the consolidation or has a daily or intermediate low, you are most likely going to lose before you gain, but at the swing low this is where you go 100% and once you become a strong hand then add margin within reason.

    I lost my account balance twice before I did ok, and then got hit with that in Fall 08. Gary is the only way I've done as well as I thought I could, and I know this is a tough time for everybody, but look at where we were in the charts where you first invested and where you added margin before you get on Gary, because he has the best approach of anyone I've ever seen.

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  124. TJ,

    This is yet another lesson for me in the category of take small losses so you don't let them turn into big losses. (I did this very thing with a VXX position last summer. I am a very slow learner.)

    Fortunately I am still well up for the year, but the this week I gave back about 1/3 of this year's profits.

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  125. Cory,

    Thanks for the post.

    You wrote: "Even in a bull market, in the intermediate term there is only one buying chance guaranteed to make you money, and that is at a low like right now: ..."

    So how do you know that right now is a buyable low, that we don't have much further to drop here? For example, what if we are just at the beginning of the move down into the next IT low?

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  126. At least everything has leveled off - dollar, silver and gold. If it breaks down lower for silver, as it seems to be, I will take my massive loss and be out. Whoever is still in can enjoy the ride up then.

    I bought a bunch at almost the exact low yesterday was scared to buy yesterday having never bought a falling knife before. Well, serves me right. My orders are in place.

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  127. Anticipating the C-Wave finale only to find that we were in the midst of the D-Wave... The markets continue to baffle, even with all the tool's at our and Gary's disposal.

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  128. traderlady,

    Tough call. If I don't see some sort of strength before the close, I'm inclined to sell 1/3 to 1/2 my miners. They are still sick if they couldn't follow through higher (at least a little) today.

    They are all bargains long term, but I don't see any reason to hold when I can buy back.

    Let's see, but I'll be sure to post when I do something.

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  129. I just remembered that Pres Obama only a few days ago proclaimed that he had put together a task force to root out the evil oil speculators.

    Apparently crude and Brent are plunging as fast as the metals now, so one has to wonder if there is a connection. Could the unlimited Fed money fueled and algo powered TBTF banks act as a catalyst to bring down the entire commodity complex?

    I've ceased to be amazed by the level of intervention going on so I wouldn't rule it out.

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  130. AGQ is coughing up blood now,

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  131. I'm starting to think there is a surprise rate higher of a token 1/4% or so in the offing.

    Somebody is selling, and selling a lot, into weakness.

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  132. Thanks SB, I was thinking along those lines. :)

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  133. Silver makes a fresh low for the day. Unbelievable.

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  134. Well, that settles it. While I was typing I was stopped out of almost half my NUGT.

    SVM still not close to stop out.

    That makes it easier, I suppose.

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  135. All right, I did my bit.
    Just bought more GDXJ and AG. Am 2/3 invested.

    Now I'm going walking . . .

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  136. Well I just sold the last of my AGQ, only 25 shares. Therefore the bounce can begin.

    A few lessons learned by me............again.

    Stops always need to be in place.

    The draw down was result of poor trades, chasing in the last two weeks = Greed

    Triming and selling into the moves worked very well, but my moves over the last two weeks negated a lot of success.

    Again the market is not my worst enemy, I am.

    Just my thoughts.

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  137. Vonda, wow! Brave lady you are

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  138. I meant "rate hike" above, not rate higher.

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  139. Looks like we have 2/3 of a head and shoulders top on GDX, GDXJ, and SIL. Haven't checked the other charts, but if the second shoulder peek develops I'll sell my GDXJ there and wait for a break to new highs to get back in, unless it rolls over, then I'll get back in sometime in the future.

    f

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  140. Could have doubled your capital in 5 days by putting yourself into ZSL last Friday, crazy...

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  141. I'm out.

    Wait for the swing low.


    Lesson learned : (

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  142. HL has a gap at 7.0

    Would not be surprised if it nails it.

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  143. Well, there are a few PM related ETF's on the BoW list today, maybe offering a little hope that a bottom might be near (or maybe it's I'm just smoking hopium).

    GDX, SLW, SIVR, and DGP are on the list, but the numbers are nothing to write home about.

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  144. when cnbc has "pros" that tell you that this is a temporary pullback and you should be buying and looking to the long term, I think that would be a pretty good indication that we need to get out.

    this would almost seem like the perfect scenario where we would expect a bounce from this huge selling pressure and everyone loads onto the boats anticipating a bounce back while the big money is gladly selling to the eager buyers thinking it will go back up. imo

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  145. Will GLD hold?
    http://i.imgur.com/duvls.jpg

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  146. long term not worried I can hold> short term july slv calls and any doubled derivative security..pretty much done for...short term we hit 35 like I said earlier, probably break down to 31. 85% chance..and worse case scenario is they release bad new about euro and we go back to 26..don't worry I am not a evil troll I own a lot of PM's

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  147. AGQ down 20 % today alone! Unbelievable.

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  148. If the un- employment report is grim tomorrow, which is just might be AND they raise rates? Hah, the entire market is going down!

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  149. Trader H? Big Money selling into $35 silver when they could have been selling into the high 40's all last week? That doesn't seem particularly intuitive to me.

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  150. OK-- Capitulated my AGQ--
    Had no margin--- Had large holdings
    Had not looked at acct since Friday
    Not as bad as I had envisioned :))
    TERRIBLE TERRIBLE FEELING!!
    Anyway, since I capitulated we can get ready for liftoff :))
    Live to fight another day! (Will have no problem getting back in when the swing forms--(IF EVER))

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  151. This is forced liquidation, like in 2008.

    Somebody big -- probably several somebodies -- are going to float to the surface soon.

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  152. Now that I'm now out, I can see a little clearer.

    I think I've been here before...

    This does has the feel of big players trying to flush as many people away as possible so they can grab bargains before a big rise.

    I venture to join those who believe that there will be a strong recovery from here - which we can jump onto when it looks safe.

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  153. Something learned:

    1. When the dollar is falling hard and miners refuse to repond, listen to them.

    2. When things go parabolic, sell them.

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  154. "If the un- employment report is grim tomorrow, which is just might be AND they raise rates? Hah, the entire market is going down!"

    Based on today's unemployment claims being horrible, you might be right.

    What will eventually happen is the pullback will hit stocks, then QE III will begin to be anticipated, and off to the races again.

    Have to be careful to not let a silver drop to $22-$25 blow you out though.

    Leverage always cuts deeper when it goes against than for.

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  155. I'm putting my foot down and ordering the drop to stop.



    I wish it was that easy...

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  156. DG,

    A failed "gut" signal means a trend change.

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  157. Low Tax,


    3. Buy at the swing low

    I did 1) and 2)

    but still got killed today

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  158. The time to try a silver long again will be when we get a huge puke day on massive volume.

    Then the bottom will be in short term. Don't play around trying to guess where "support" is.

    There is none at this point.

    Large puke on huge volume will be your trigger to dip a toe back in.

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  159. Fact is though, if SLV drops to 20$, I'm back to where I was.

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  160. Oil down BIG..
    Is there any doubt this is a D wave down for the metals?

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  161. Gold - the big picture
    http://i.imgur.com/DgHLB.jpg

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  162. Thinking the cyclical bull in stocks is over, too.

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  163. Volume is large - but not that much larger than the spike in volume that occurred near the highs. I would guess SLV will see a 400mm share print into a large puke.

    Just my worthless opinion on the future.

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  164. Well, with everyone bailing left and right, it really adds insult to injury knowing that JPM is laughing all the way to... er... while being at the bank.

    There went my minilong stop loss at 34.90 by the way. A decent chunk of money going poof. :(

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  165. I'm still in with LON:LSIL but can't sell until tomorrow - I'm down 40% on that trade after buying in with silver at 46, probably be down 60%+ by the morning.. ugh.

    Been long on PMs since 2005, but never used leverage till last week. I feel like such an idiot.

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  166. I am going to wait for the nightly report and make my decision tonight for what I will do with my positions. Too emotional right now to make a rational decision.

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  167. You know it's bad when you're hanging underneath the bull.

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  168. 1445 on the gold futures is a significant price level. If it's breached, it would invalidate the obvious wave count that would support a move to new highs. Not saying that new highs would become impossible if that were to happen, it's just that the obvious wave pattern would no longer be in play.

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  169. we should go short silver and try to make up the lost gains

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  170. By the way, the SoCal SMT C-wave finale get-together has been cancelled due to inclement weather.

    New date TBA.

    ;)

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  171. This looks like major capitulation...Gold down $50+
    silver down $4+

    I say buyers come in NOW! 3:15 p.m. Everyone likes to call a bottom, but that was CAPITULATION!!! :)

    Hey, here's a positive "wish' for tomorrows Report. IF SLV gaps open , and ZSL gaps down...Thats very positive as a trading pattern.

    see 'Island Top' and 'Abandoned Baby' ( if thats the real names...my buddy used to call it a dumpster baby, but THAT was way wrong). Anyone familiar with those?? Gap down, gap up...they usually Rocket out of there.

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  172. I'm putting my neck out here, and I'm admitting that I bought miners too early, I'm down 15% ATM, but this is the buy point with no margin. The only problem is people with no skin in the game don't go looking for pm blogs/newsletters at times like these, but this is a true Rothschild moment right here.

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  173. razvan- I am with you. I think we are lining up with a low in June. Long term still intact you just have to climb a bit higher up the mountain to get a look. Of course don't listen to me. That's not advice.

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  174. Capitulated! Done and out with massive losses. Have a small amount of gold.

    Live to invest another day!

    Now lets see everything rise!

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  175. HUGE move on the dollar today, biggest green candle in almost a year. And on more than double the average volume on DX futures.

    UUP huge volume as well.

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  176. i'm about 90% sure the majority of lows are put in in the AM hours and would not buy PM dips EOD.

    i think what we need to look for is a very large gap down w/ strong fill on some bad-for-PM news. tomorrow or monday seem good.

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  177. yeah cory, but we may get some more tomorrow and Monday. Also what if it just keeps on rolling down hill?

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  178. Just as an FYI-- Also sold NUGT when I sold AGQ-- Kept SIL SLW and a little DGP (and a couple small options SLW and SLV)
    Gut less knotty--- (Food still not staying down well) :))))
    Good Luck all!!

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