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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Portfolio Change

Portfolio change has been posted to the website.

338 comments:

  1. Good place to put this post.

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  2. Basil,

    Silver isn't like the stock market. It's a commodity. Commodities tend to lay low for a long time, then spike violently.

    Check out a 20-year chart of Palladium and you'll see what I mean. Better yet, check out a chart of silver in the 1970s.

    The silver bull market of the 1970s was in reality just two superspikes -- one in 74 and one in 80. Aside from those two years, silver flatlined.

    If you invest in silver expecting it to act like the stock market, you will wind up frustrated and end up selling your position in five years, just before the next superspike begins.

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  3. Gary:

    You said that you will take profits on both short positions if today's close pushes the 5 day RSI below 30, and you sold.

    I show the SPY 5 day RSI close today was around 70. Where am I wrong?

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  4. John,
    I decided to go ahead and cover both trades for two reasons. The S&P ended pretty close to the top of it's intraday range making it easy to form a swing tomorrow. A swing could mark the the bottom of the daily cycle.

    And two there was a large BoW number on the SPY this afternoon. That could be signaling tomorrow is an up day and if so it would form the swing.

    So I decided it was close enough and went ahead and locked in profits.

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  5. BTW the RSI closed the day at 31.93.

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  6. Bob loves Hawaii:

    Where did you get that? I get 70.03 as the close of 5 day RSI of SPY on TdAmeritrade

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  7. I don't know where you are getting an RSI of 70. 70 is overbought.

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  8. Thanks Gary. I have to do some checking LOL

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  9. My chart says RSI closed at 31.9.

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  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. Are you checking the RSI on SPY or on an inverse fund like SH? If you are looking at an inverse fund then that would explain it.

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  12. John, here's your chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77453154726

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  13. Gary;

    I have checked at traderslog.com and got 65

    http://www.traderslog.com/quotes-charts/?page=ccharts&sym=spy&sp=&nasdaq=&dow=&studies=VOLI;RSI%285,20%29;&type=CANDLE&a=I:30

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  14. Gary,
    Do you have any plans to take the other side of the trade? SPY calls or something.

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  15. Gary,

    I'm with you 100% on the coming Bear market, no doubt, but the calls to have equities top around here, are they based purely on the 4 yr equities cycle being shortened and due in early 2012 or is it based more on the 3yr dollar cycle low? or Both?

    I'm just trying to get an understanding of your thinking if you don't mind, because as I see it these intermiadate cycles can keep grinding higher (well one more cycle) (Gold & Equities) as long as we don't blow through the 3yr and 4yr cycles right?

    If the 3yr cycle for the dollar can occur anywhere within 3.5 yrs (late fall) and the equities cycle is 4 yrs (through to technically early 2013 low) why couldn't we have another lower dollar IT cycle, a nice RT equities cycle and a higher gold IT cycle, once the current cycle finds it's IT cycle low?
    I guess I'm asking, why the rush to call an end to the equities bull, dollar bear and a gold D-wave when none of them have technically failed or confirmed.

    Thanks.

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  16. John,
    You are looking at an hourly chart. That's why it's showing a 65.

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  17. Docjohn, look at the daily chart.

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  18. Poly,
    yes based mostly on the 4 year cycle in equities and the three year cycle in the dollar. Don't forget we have qualifiers before we can say for sure one way or the other.

    A move to new highs negates the move obviously. And the market has to move below 1249 and break the last intermediate cycle low before we have confirmation. Right now the market is in no man's land other than being in the timing band for a top.

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  19. Docjohn,

    That chart you posted spans several days but it is a 30 minute chart. Go down to the settings and select Daily.

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  20. Wav,
    I'm not confident the market will move to new highs. I would have to feel that new highs had high odds before I would want to take the long side. For now I'll just sit in cash.

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  21. Thanks Gary,

    So you're saying what I outlined is still possible right, until confirmation?
    It just seems like everybody is married to the idea of a D-Wave and Bear market right now when the confirmation is not in.
    Looking back in the past these IT cycles always seem to through curve-balls or appear one way only to deceive. We've thought the C-Wave top was coming many cycles ago, the bear returning etc etc.
    The miners acting poorly makes sense, as we would still need to endure an IT low soon enough, without the requirement of a D-Wave.

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  22. What would you say to the following cycle lows, end of July 2010, end of October 2010, end of January 2011 and today?
    They seem fairly evenly spaced, and all come at a time of low occillator readings.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82701508994&a=169497355&listNum=1r readings.

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  23. FYI - Technically, though I'm a follower and not a predictor of price action, me thinks ... that PM's are about to bust out to make higher highs. The HUI is at the 200d EMA, and isn't going lower. The dollar is peaking; and the euro is forming a low. I think this will be the final parabolic move you spoke of Gary.

    Fundamentally, this will be due to Bernanke announcing QE3.

    I'm not an EW'er, but a good EW'er I respect is seeing this as a wave 5 up (our of the current corrective wave 4 we're now in). Interesting.

    We'll see.

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  24. It feels like the week of Jan 24th - see the daily HUI chart - deep RSI, deep PPO - everone thinking the gold bull was over.

    Gary, is this worth a Plan B?

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  25. correction, I meant the low a couple of days ago, not today... but there are similarities of each low that I mentioned...
    anyone?

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  26. China buys South African Gold Miner

    China has reduced their holdings of US Treasuries for the 5th month in a row. Presumably, with some of the proceeds they just bought their first gold mining company for a half billion.

    They already have placed a floor under the gold price and now maybe there will be a bidder for gold miners down the road.

    Also, why not buy a miner with 1,500,000 ounces of reserves for $316 an ounce when the metal is at $1,500.

    We will see more of this.

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  27. Looks like lots of people still want to jump back on the bull. I don't think the market will make it that easy. If this is a D Wave, sentiment has to get totally washed out, we will need to see more disgust and frustration rather than "let me back on."

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  28. You have to look at the markets holistically.

    It doesn't make sense just to look at gold at this point.

    All risk assets are rolling over. Defensive sectors are outperforming. This is not an environment where anything is going parabolic anytime soon.

    The current environment feels very much like late summer 2008. Commodities falter, the mining and refining stocks collapse, then the general market follows.

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  29. Romeo, agree.

    I'm not bullish or bearish - I just follow. So I'm just seeing a potential setup in PM's that FX is confirming. If (and only if) price breaks out above recent pivot highs would I buy the breakout, w/a trailing floor.

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  30. romeo bravo,

    I totally agree. It's interesting to witness the flow of sentiment on this blog. You can almost tell who is long, who is short, who is clinging to hope, etc. ;)

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  31. I think the sentiment is probably very low. Look at one of my stocks, Alamos Gold, made a high in December and has been making lower lows since, has dropped from $21.50 to $13.50. I guess if this is the start of the D wave it could go on down to $6.. but that seems just too extreme to me given all that I know

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  32. Sleeper, we do have a living breathing sentiment gauge right here!

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  33. What's really driving me to reconsider this is that QE2 is about to expire, and there's no way Bernanke won't do something to keep market proped up - based on his own history/philosophy, based on HF greed, and based on presidential cycles. Bernanke is in his element, and he will print.

    Gary has said this over and over. Not sure why though folks think QE will end. Sure, he said he's done, but I'd be amazed (and glad) if he has the kahuna's to follow though.

    Again, we'll see. I'm following whatever happens.

    BTW, great posts Gary.

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  34. An 2008 crash post credit bubble collapse is a once in a generational thing.. I think it is unlikely to happen again in just 3 years....

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  35. Ken,
    It's not possible to have an intermediate low here. We don't even have a weekly swing yet.

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  36. Bill,

    Is it possible the Fed will need to wait until stocks and public outcry for relief allows them to ride to the rescue?

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  37. I don't think we're in for a replay of 2008.

    But this is what the transition to a "risk off" environment looks like.

    Commodity stocks fall => Commodities fall => Economically sensitive stocks fall => everything falls.

    We are already over a month into the process.

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  38. Bill,
    No way would I go long metals here. We've got weekly swings in both silver and miners. A broken parabola n silver and a bearish engulfing candle on gold. Plus it's week 16 of an intermediate cycle and day 8 of a daily cycle. If this was going to make a parabolic move it would have started already.

    And to top it off the dollar has obviously put in an intermediate degree bottom.

    The odds are stacked hugely against gold continuing the run now. You are trying to rationalize something that clearly has very little chance of happening.

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  39. Felix, yup. Good thought. In fact, I don't recall exactly, but wasn't that how QE2 was born? Didn't it take the SPY to tip over 1st before QE extended? Gary? Or perhaps I'm remember how QE1 was born out of TARP?

    Damn memory cells ...

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  40. Sir Gary, he he!, I'm not a cycles guy, so that bit aside, I wouldn't go long metals here - yet - but heck yes I will if we break above the last pivot high, and the 50d EMA.

    Why? Because they'd be going up.

    It's that simple for me. Up is up, down is down, sideways is noting.

    But again I don't have cycles nagging at me.

    How about you - in the bit we agree on - about fundamentals - will Bernanke print or not? If he will, metals will rise, no? Felix may have nailed how that happens, but if Bernanke prints, metals will rise. What are the odds that Bernanke stops printing?

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  41. At the moment I think it's politically impossible to justify QE3. If the market suffers another hard correction then yes.

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  42. Bill

    No question he will, what choice will he have? I think most of us agree and that's why we're looking to play off the decline of the dollar here with the PM bull.

    I suppose part of the question could be put, "Do the cycles follow the news?" or "Is the news window-dressing to cover the cyclic moves?" At what point are deliberations over policy moot?

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  43. Well, if I stop looking at the charts for a sec, and just close my eyes, and imagine how much f'ing money Bernanke has printed - trillions! - and w/China buying less and less of our debt, with 10% unemployment (1 out of 10), and 20% underempoyment, and 1 out of 5 underwater, and with the stock market tipping over HARD, back to 666, HE WILL HAVE NO CHOICE.

    I think it was Trader Dan that said that he may not call it QE3, but money will be printed in some form.

    Would Bernanke allow a depression? Would Obama allow Bernanke to allow a depression?

    I hope I'm wrong, but I fear not.

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  44. correction ... "1 out of 5 houses underwater"

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  45. Bill,

    QE3 is a given. But it's not coming soon enough to save the PM complex, or commodities in general.

    In the short term, Ben wants to see commodities lower. It's only when the stock market rolls over hard that you will start seeing talk of QE3.

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  46. Everyone's seen "what a trillion means" video's - here's my own personal choice - the M31 Andromeda Galaxy. It has 1 trillion stars.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Andromeda_Galaxy_(with_h-alpha).jpg

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  47. Thanks, Gary,,, that is why I was asking~ you are the expert in cycles to ask

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  48. OK, Gary/David/Felix, I'm with you. I thought that Gary earlier was saying that QE would not contiue, and that that was part of his rational for a D wave.

    Again, I'm not a cycles guy. And I'm not saying Gary's wrong on cycles. I myself am not convinced, but it may be true.

    5 yrs ago, EW worked. So did volume, divergences, reversal candlesticks. Now all that is broken. Only price works. If price rises, I'm in. That's all I'm saying.

    And, I'm wondering if Gary has a cycles Plan B to accodate this, if it pans out.

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  49. If gold can break above the May 11th high then I would reconsider a moderate long position in gold and only gold.

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  50. Bill, thanks for that galactic reminder of how small I am - and my problems!

    Took a trade today on Orbite, a Quebec co. with an alumina patent. Who knows? Snapback cont., I hope. Jumped on board based on volume, story. Otherwise twiddling my thumbs; haven't sold my Model Portfolio (yet); kept one micro silver stock, hoping for news...

    *yawn*

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  51. *yawn* was an exaggeration; this sh$t actually fascinates me. Why else have I been reading every single solitary post for months (and belching beep replacements)?

    But, seriously. When it comes, I'll be all over it...

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  52. Gary, that's exactly where I drew my line, too. ;-) If and only if gold breaks that would I guy. And like you wrote a while ago, I'd focus on miners. I won't discount silver yet, so I'd start w/a partial position in each of GDX, GDXJ and SIL, and then after a week or so be adding to the winning horse.

    I do hope though that we're in a D wave, because that means we can buy at a lower price, plus ride the A and C wave up.

    Enough of my babble - am glad to see your Plan B though. Thanks.

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  53. "It's interesting to witness the flow of sentiment on this blog. You can almost tell who is long, who is short, who is clinging to hope, etc"

    Clinging to hope goes both ways! LOL

    For every bear case (i.e. Silver broken) there is a bull case. I've been hearing about divergences in rails/transports, financials, PM's, semiconductors, tech's for over a year and still the market plows higher.

    I too believe a vicious bear across all risk assets will soon be unleashed. But for now, the cycles have not failed and the trends have not reversed, so the hoping is on the short side, for now!

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  54. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  55. I'm with Poly, we either abide by the cycles or we do not. Gold is still in the C wave.

    Viva la gold LOL

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  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  57. If anyone is interested Hong Kong is now trading gold futures. 32 ounce contracts.

    http://www.hkmerc.com/en/market_news_data/today_quotes_news/HKG/index.html

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  58. DG,

    Anything percolating for TBT in your system? We seem to have had a capitulation to new lows after TLT rallied 38% to it's recent highs. There may be a low risk set up here in the next few days.

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  59. Can gold be in the C-wave sans silver participating?

    Why is the parabola "broken" so it can't be rebuilt?

    Could the silver parabola have been meant to throw you off before a gold repeat?

    Just obvious questions. Thanks!

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  60. at ease,
    I believe the number is 1521.80. Someone correct me if i'm wrong.

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  61. There is a simple answer to all the questions about WHY? (i.e. Why not a climax in Gold or a new parabola in Silver).

    Probability as viewed by Gary.

    Gary has his framework and based on what his framework says, he makes his calls.

    Based on his framework it is best to keep the power dry even if you miss out on the last surge.

    One simple look at the charts tells you why. Do the charts in May look anything like the chart for the rest of the C-Wave?

    Of course anything can happen. Do remember that at least from the trading point of view, cash too is a position. So when probability does not favor you stay in cash or trade small.

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  62. Yes thank you, a72.

    Questions are just a fairly obvious reaction to the unlikely-miracle-Plan-B-Hawaii-Bravo-scenario deal, you know, not from just my own head of course.

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  63. A72, if it's just a normal move to an IT low then it's an expected picture of weakness. Plus the daily hasn't failed, plenty of short and med term options, being short is not called for by the cycles yet. But I do agree, being aggressive or heavy here is not a great idea, IMO.

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  64. The final parabolic move in Gold's C wave starts tomorrow. Gold is header to 1685+ and Dollar is headed to 68 or lower.

    I guess pretty much everyone is bearish at this moment. Thats good enough to justify :)

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  65. Don't tease me Vamsee. :-). Nice $2 dollar pop in gold now. Watch the gold market tomorrow to see if HK can tame the morning beat down.

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  66. Bob, you won't believe what you're gonna see in the next 2 months. S&P close to 1500 & gold over $1685. Am sure silver will kick back in gear too.

    This should be very interesting.

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  67. so is the correction over yet? is everyone confused as I am? i have both slv puts and gld calls, guess thats the confusion showing.

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  68. MarkMarin: Nope. TLT is not overdone enough to the upside for me to be able to claim "that's all she wrote." To be fair TLT and TBT are my worst trading vehicles judging by my performance. I have no idea why, but they are. I take my own signals on them with a grain of salt. (Maybe the Fed overtly manipulating that market? Whatever. but if something is not working I shy away from it.)

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  69. David, we never got a D wave signal, so I stayed long gold. I have been managing with weekly sold calls, but the Comex OI is absurdly strong for a D wave approaching.

    iners breaking out GDX ahead of GLD was comforting.

    Silver may shock people, although I have hardly any long SLV.

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  70. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  71. Please, what is the missed D-wave signal that is keeping hope burning for some? I thought I was keeping up.

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  72. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  73. I think its becoming obvious we are due for a bounce here as the miners have finally started to hold up. I may buy in tomorrow for a short-term bounce but this is not the end of the correction. PMs will not blast off to new highs into the middle of the summer doldrums after silver has broken its parabolic move.

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  74. I should add that if you go back and review the action of past crashes you will find that PMs will sometimes move up for several weeks in the summer months only to roll back over and make new lows. Theres still too many newbies here and far too much excitement and dreams of getting rich quick. Corrections are not only defined in price but also in time and although I personally dont think we have met either but we are definitely no where near the "time" requirement.

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  75. Does anyone think silver may rally? It opened at $33 last Thursday and hasn't come near that since...

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  76. Dan - I am new enough but I don't think anyone has the answer to my question. I don't ask out of greed, but because I don't think there's much behind it but mere hope. It's also rather contrarian to the G-man so perhaps it could be backed up as more than hunches - that is what I imagined, anyway.

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  77. David, no worries. I jumped in, FWIW, I agree with you. I am not expecting a parabolic move, but there seems unfinished business on the long side, and want to ride it.

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  79. Felix,

    I think the argument is that gold never had the parabolic move that defines a C-wave top.

    We also did not see the dollar break to new lows, despite the vast amount of QE that should have sent it there.

    Also, the big move in the dollar that we've just had could simply be a countertrend rally on the way to those new lows.

    These arguments don't persuade me personally, but that's the bull case in a nutshell.

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  80. Thank you, I appreciate that.

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  81. Dan said "Theres still too many newbies here and far too much excitement and dreams of getting rich quick."

    You could have fooled me. I've seen very little evidence of optimism on the blog lately about where pm's are headed. Quite to the contrary actually.

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  82. If the dollar is going to make new lows then it would require the dollar's intermediate cycle to top in only 8 days. It would then head generally lower till Sept or Oct.

    That would suggest gold's intermediate cycle would last 30-35 weeks long before it even tops. We would then need another 6 to 10 weeks for the D-wave to run it's course so all in all an intermediate cycle lasting 40+ weeks.

    I don't think that's ever happened before.

    Unless gold can manage a parabolic rally along with the dollar rallying there is little precedent for a parabolic move at this point.

    There is precedent for a counter trend rally to get everyone's hopes up and then suck them down into another leg lower though.

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  83. Quite a few folks are buying miners now. They look strong and will do good on Wednesday. Watch SLW, ANV, IAG, and RGLD.

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  84. On the Silver 2 hour chart, we are in the midst of a 7 in a row green candle. If this holds, it will be the longest run since that night back on April 24/25 when silver spiked to 49.80.

    What it means, IDK.

    Bollinger band is also getting quite narrow.

    Popcorn anyone? Enjoy the show.

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  85. If there is anyone online that is an "aggressive portfolio" subscriber and is willing to help me out with a question - I would greatly appreciate if you could drop me a quick e-mail.

    I'll leave it up until I get a response.

    Thanks.

    rjweinstein@gmail.com

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  86. Gary, With regard to your post about how gold making a parabola now would stretch the time factor.

    I seem to remember you saying the last intermediate cycle in C Waves were always extremely right translated. Am I remembering this correctly?

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  87. Right translated and stretched 40 weeks are two different things.

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  88. BTW gold topped (so far) on week 13 which does make this intermediate cycle right translated.

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  89. Gary:
    From your experience at such junctures, how has the BLEES reacted? Has it increased with falling prices if this is an intermediate? Or decreased with falling prices if D wave? Also, am guessing if prices rise, the BLEES will continue to fall? Lastly, we know that so far, gold has not stretched significantly over the mean. But how do you interpret the BLEES still holding strong and not falling under 10 or 20 at major C wave tops?
    Thanks!

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  90. Why would the dollar need to top in 8 days? Why can't the IT cycle fail? This way you have many weeks for a top, which could allow for a gold IT low. The next gold IT cycle could be the one.

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  91. NJ,
    Most of the commercial traders are miners hedging production. So not unexpectedly the Blees rating tends to fall as gold goes higher and rise as gold drops.

    Tops are tough to spot and it doesn't matter whether you are smart money or retail so a 0 on the Blees rating doesn't mean much. Gold can and often does continue to climb higher for months after the Blees rating hits a maximum bearish 0.

    Bottoms are much easier to spot and when the Blees rating hits 100 it's usually time to buy almost immediately.

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  92. Gold can't have an intermediate bottom when it hasn't even formed a weekly swing high yet.

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  93. Well not saying now. But why couldn't it find it's IT low as this new dollar cycle tops, say within the next 3-5 weeks?

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  94. That's what I would expect to happen.

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  95. Ia there a way to get the Wall Street Journal to send you alerts if certain stocks show up on the BoW or the SoS list?

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  96. Poly

    I'm with you when you say we need to see confirmation of a trend reversal. It has nothing to do with hope or denial or the number of newbies. The dollar does appear to have bottomed but that is it so far. Here are the charts I've been watching. Just a note, these are drawn with no regard to cycle timing.

    US dollar is facing it's main test for the uptrend to continue.

    USD chart


    UUP chart shows the buying volume kicked in at the Head n Shoulders target however we haven't seen positive divergence on the MACD which was the leading indicator for the previous bottoms. Price is also at the common level where fakeout rallies have failed before.

    UUP chart


    All this may just be academic and we may just be waiting for the doctor to arrive and pronounce the corpse clinically dead.

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  97. Myiagi oyyyh
    Are you still holding your shorts on SLV?
    As of today I'm still have my GLD puts but don't know if I should hold. Just wondering what you are doing?

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  98. Hagerty,
    If you took puts on GLD they need to be far enough out to let the intermediate cycle bottom. That means at least July.

    You also aren't going to do yourself any favors by trying to jump in and out of them with every little wiggle. You will just end up whipsawing yourself to death.

    Those are positions that you just take and then close your eyes and let them work until the intermediate cycle bottoms.

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  99. What is the 50 MA for the USD? It looks like it bounced off it in the overnight at 75.15??

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  100. Hi Silverhound,

    Thanks for the great charts. I am with you and poly, leaning toward the possibility that we may still be in C-wave and there may be another IT cycle for $USD to make the 3yr low. Indeed this is not based on hope or wishful thinking, but sound analysis. As Gary has pointed out the current $USD IT cycle has not top yet. This is supported by the fact that your UUP chart doesn't show a negative divergence yet. As a comparison negative divergence was clearly visible in your UUP chart when $USD topped in Dec'10-Jan'11. My plan is not to play the current whipsaws, but to wait for Gary's call for a $USD IT btm to jump back in.

    Gary,

    Thanks for the excellent cycle analysis. It gives me a clear road map of what is ahead and confidence to trade.


    Rebecca

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  101. Gary:

    In reference to your comments on GLD puts, would you say the same about SLV puts?

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  102. GLD or SLV they are both the same and they will both hit an intermediate bottom together.

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  103. G'day Rebecca

    Yes I've noticed you mention the divergence on the dollar chart before so it seems we are both watching out for it. I have to admit, it is something that I look for. Of course it doesn't have to happen and if the rally continues unabated we will have to settle for "confirmation" of the MACD as you know. I guess it doesn't hurt to be patient at times like this to see what unfolds. Thanks for posting your thoughts.

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  104. FS wrote this yesterday:

    "At 10:00 a.m. on this day in 1792 the New York Stock Exchange was founded under the trees at 70 Wall Street by 24 brokers. By 10:02 they had successfully worked out how they would rig the market."

    :)

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org

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  105. Hot rod,

    Your right, the dollar is just crawling along the 50dmva and really starting to look like a bull flag to me.

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  106. good thing i got out my SLV puts yesterday... kinda a bonus that I made $60 out of the transaction for something in which I was expecting to pay tuition for my first foray into options...

    anyways I think I'll wait until SLV reaches 35 or 36 b4 I re-enter July 25 SLV puts, if both DOC and Gary seemed convinced that stocks are bottoming on the daily cycle, I'd say the odds are good that we'd get a good rally on silver, although i'd be hesitant to play this rally.

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  107. The SPX (& the NDX) have made their swing lows.

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  108. Gary,
    GDX and GDXJ up, any inkling how far up they may go? Or up with GLD and SLV and back down also?

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  109. I do have an inkling and I went over it in the aggressive portfolio report last night :)

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  110. Hmmm, I have them long Nov/Dec. Calls.

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  111. thx! Driver ,

    How long will the trend change last ?

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  112. Gary

    I can't help to think you would be openly talking about your inklings if it wasn't in a different report. As difficult as things are right now, I don't like feeling as though I'm just getting the punk report

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  113. That being said. I'll probably send you the money tonight =)

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  114. Possible buy signal! If Dow closes down modestly there is a good chance of a buy. Means a 1% rally within 2-3 days. May mark the bottom G has been looking for. I will post near the close. If we close up, no signal is possible.

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  115. Jeff,
    These strategies are risky. Some are extremely risky. They aren't for 99% of traders.

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  116. Based on the number of comments and blog traffic. I would say gold is back to being an ignored asset class.

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  117. I don't know that I want stratageys, but I don't want to miss info
    I already have trouble pulling the tigger when you say shoot
    Although I am much better

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  118. IMO we are in no-man's land here - time to eat sandwiches and wait for an edge - the hardest thing to do in this business is to do nothing, most people want the excitement of being in the game - it's times like this that can chip away at your account balance.

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  119. Sorry Gary, does it mean that you give also a different report on the risky membership post?

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  120. I'll check in later, but I don't see anything that warrants action today.

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  121. oa, the swing low doesn't necessarily mean we'll be going up from here.

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  122. "Driver said...
    oa, the swing low doesn't necessarily mean we'll be going up from here."

    thx! that will be Only Amazing...

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  123. Gary,

    Sent you an email requesting the details of your aggressive portfolio.

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  124. Not good if we get the PUNK report.
    I just have to trust Gary has our best interest.

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  125. Gary: I'm a little confused. When you first created the aggressive report you said you hoped no one would get it (which I didn't quite understand---why create it, then?) Now you have mentioned it sort of as a teaser several times. Seems like advertising it, which decrease the chances that "no one will subscribe." As well, my sense is that anyone who needs it to know which options to buy probably shouldn't be buying options. What am I missing here?

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  126. I believe he does. As long as Gary provides us with his cycle analysis of the Gold/Silver/Miners and the condition of the general markets we are good to go. Not much to do right now, unless you want to risk losing money.

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  127. It's seems the price to receive gary's trade information has simply gone up. If you stick with the regular subscription you don't get the same product you used to.

    Btw can someone here just disclose the cost. Ive sent an email to Gary requesting it but not sure why it's being kept a secret of sorts.

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  128. Dan,
    Depends on what you want to pay for. I would think with risk/reward and preserving capital important right now for the A wave as Gary has stressed, you would be best to sit tight and wait for the market to come to you, not chase high risk, low reward trades. If you listen to most traders here, that is what they are doing.

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  129. Dan, I disagree. Gary simply removed his personal portfolio and replaced it with a model portfolio.

    Most pay him for cycle turns, and that is enough.

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  130. Bob,

    You disagree but then you state he "removed" something.... Does that not inherently make it a different/lesser product?

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  131. The little calls on Brent that I bought yesterday are working nicely.. 15% ...took profit and going to buy a new pair of shoes with the poceeds

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  132. Are the Jr. mining stocks telling us anything today? I'm just saying :)

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  133. Guys, that is the price that Gary decided to make us pay for giving him such a tough time 2 weeks ago...that is all

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  134. mmm, i was thinking that also dg

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  135. Yeah, I'm not feelin' it with the teasers for the bigKids' portfolio. Starting to feel elitist, i.e., "I have ideas about your question, but I'll only discuss it in the aggressive portfolio, which you can't have because I really don't want you to buy it, (unless you fit into that 1%)--in fact, I really don't even want to talk about it, as it's sort of a secret, but hey, good question and thanks for asking!"

    I liked the old Gary, the one I signed up with last summer.

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  136. I understand Gary's frustration but I think that it is unfair for all of us who have been supportive of his work...As usual a few bitter people are making others pay

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  137. You guys can send me your money and I will show you how to blow out your accounts too! :)

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  138. I'm up 10% on AAU. Miners looking strong. I'll be buying more on weakness.

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  139. Psst, psst Poly,
    If Gold breaks 1505, are we back on track?

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  140. Gold still holding, the USD printed a swing, all looks well for 1500 to fall and then an attack on 1520.
    Good enough for me.

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  141. NSU is up about 40% today...(on my original investment of $1.75) - sweet

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  142. Is the USD swing in the timing band for a swing high? If not, should it not be discounted?

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  143. FOMC minutes will impact PM greatly today. A must watch for me.

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  144. Ooh! Where do I sign up, Jayhawk?

    Seriously, it's not the precise trades--I don't want my face attached to a computer screen all day every day. As someone else said, it's the information, the dialogue, and the exchange of ideas. Someone asked about a momentum "inkling" and Gary said he had discussed that in the elite report, the same elite report that he doesn't want to sell to anyone and, in fact, even the price is secret. If this isn't a backroom boys' club (where's the claret?), then what is?

    Additionally, all of the many comments of late (not by Gary, but others) along the lines of "If you don't know what strike price to buy; then you shouldn't be trading options" are financially sanctimonious--perhaps true, but still snide. My god, you would think all of these traders were born fluent in optionGreek. Why not just say--as a few people have--"Be very careful. They're tricky bastards. And here are a couple of places where you might want to learn and practice before taking a swim."

    Options, obviously, can be an incredibly useful tool. Instead of trying to frighten or discourage people, or worse, make it seem as if it's some amazing mystery only 1% can ever hope to penetrate, why not continue discussing them responsibly?

    Now I need a claret.

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  146. My take on Gary's "new" service is that he's trying to protect the more novice folks from investing like he does; therefore, he's giving the "old" service subscribers what he thinks they need to know. If you want the stronger medicine, you will have to make an effort to get it (pay more money.)

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  147. I use GPL as my indicator.. no science here..

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  148. Gary, I would like your opinion on something; it looks like GDX formed a coil (do you agree?) and coils fake-break one direction (in today's case-up) and are usually then followed by a counter (in GDX's case, a move down). I know you probably view the reversion to the mean a stronger attractant for price movements, but could GDX be faking a move up and continue down over the next few days?

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  149. Gary, I and many others would appreciate you reconsidering your decision to not publish your portfolio. It is fine to give aggressive investors a choice and no problem with them paying you for that. However, publishing your portfolio allowed us to gauge our decisions based on discounting or adjusting to the risk you take. Now, we have to adjust according to a hypothetical portfolio that you only really know the risk to. In my mind and from the comments on the blog, this has created more confusion in knowing how to trade.

    Mike

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  150. Vonda

    You have missed your calling for sure, or were born in the wrong era.....you should have been a gangsters doll in the roaring 20's :-)

    Didn't you know that "VWP" is the new SMT. It sounds like we need a massive cash injection in here to prop up all the bad debt.....erm leverage..... QE anyone?

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  151. I am wondering about a slow demise...interest rates slow to increase, real inflation stays high in food and energy slowly taking away from family homes, slow increase to taxes...and without a proper pop and drop, no real place to make money.

    Throwing it out there as a thought. Ah well back to sleep ZZZZZ

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  152. the bull wasn't dead unless it cross below 1460

    this is a relief rally, it bounced perfectly. gotta love the algos.

    time will tell if it has legs. gold must trade over 1515, spx over 1340.

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  154. Silverhound,

    Hate to admit, you might be right about that gansta prediction/memory, especially considering the metaphor that comes to my mind today. As the bulls say "Gold's holding $1,500!," the way I (bearishly) see it: what's the point of being able to hold an erection if it can't penetrate anything?

    Hope I haven't offended (too much) with financial eroticism on an otherwise ho-hum day. I'm off to grab a pint in Cork before Her Majesty arrives and shuts down all the pubs.

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  155. Gary

    Do you have a view on Armstrongs 8.6 year cycle? He has a new cycle starting from a low in June this year and peaking in late 2015. I only read his letters off and on but it seems to work in with your thoughts on the timing of the Gold bubble.

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  156. the Question was simply...GDX and HDXJ are up, do you have an inkling of how far up they may go??

    the answer was...Blogger Gary said...

    I do have an inkling and I went over it in the aggressive portfolio report last night :)

    May 18, 2011 6:59 AM

    That question seemed fair...not asking for an " RISKY options play"... just asking as a subscriber...Do you think you know GDX price target??

    Am I wrong?? Wasnt the AGGRESSIVE portfolio just a portfolio for aggressive traders?

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  157. This reminds me of airline baggage fees. Now you have to pay extra for something that used to be included with the cost of your purchase.

    It leaves a bitter taste in your mouth.

    Gary please reconsider. Knowing how you actually trade is more educational than a "model" portfolio. If people blow up their accounts due to inexperience or over-exuberance, that is their responsibility, not yours.

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  158. Vonda.......pricless lol


    VWP = Very Watery Portfolio

    heh heh all in good fun.

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  159. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  160. I think some marketers got a hold of Gary ... when he starts withholding information from the newsletter and then starts blogging about how we can see this info in the premium subscription ... something doesn't smell right.
    My worry ... he'll start focusing his energy on the premium letter (where after all is where his money is) an leave the rest of us with some crumbs.

    IMO ... both letters should be 100% identical ... the only difference should be in the portfolio makeup ... that was the intent that I got.

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  161. I love it. There's already a black market for Gary's agressive portfolio. Gotta love the free market.

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  162. Trying to make up for lost ground by taking risky positions will only make things worse. Keep some cash and buy the miners on dips with a tight leash on them, you'll make money...

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  163. Gary's doing the right thing, leaving the riskier trades more private now. In the end following the conservative portfolio for the remainder of the bull (many years left) will suit you thousands of percent. Most of you don't honestly know what is good for you. Many probably are trying to do "comeback" trades after irresponsible previous trades. Just chill out and be thankful Gary's normal service is as cheap as it is anyways.

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  164. Yes, it would be interesting to know if anyone who has upgraded to the seletive email portfolio SMTP service find it worth the investment and lucrative enough to recommend.
    Many of us provided rave reviews on Gary's service to any who asked us our opinion of Gary to possible new subscribers asking what we thought of his service. Many times Gary suggested they ask us personally our opinions and we fully supported his service and advice.
    Seems like many are wondering if those who have moved up can recommend Gary's new select portfolio email service worth the higher price to those who are considering the move up.

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  165. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  166. Watered-down, indeed, Silverhound.

    I like my whisky neat (of course.)

    Gary, if you're out there, how about just being straight-up with your new, stratified, service?

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  167. You guys aren't thinking very hard.

    Gary has 1000s, I think actually, no it is, 10,000s of subscribers.

    You think he should issue risky option trades to that many subscribers? Most are 40, 50+ and just want to, and should go Old Turkey.

    The premium subscription is more for traders. If you think you are a trader, you better get your head on straight- 90% of traders end up losing money.

    I want it now, oh yeah, that's what you are saying- Be patient. Maybe if you learn patience eventually you'll be able to become a trader.

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  168. I've Eaten,

    I think what might have set this off, as Alex pointed out a few comments above, is the question that was asked, was a simply one of magnitude regarding price of miners. No one was requesting any kind of strategy, aggressive or otherwise.

    What s/he received was a tantalizing reply from Gary that he had discussed that very thing in last night's upscale report. Period. (or actually, some sort of "wink".)

    It sounds as if you are suggesting that "for their own good" people should be kept in the dark?

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  169. I have subscribed to Gary's aggressive portfolio service, because I understand options well, and have used his suggestions to mold my decisions. Many have been things I wasn't looking for, some plays I've made in advance of his suggestions, and have done well with some of them.

    That being said, what he recommends is indeed aggressive, risky, and frankly requires management without him. The premium service cost is comparable to any other service providing similar information (and Frankly Gary does a better job than others). I would only recommend it if you are seasoned speculator and trader, and can weather big draw-downs, and manage risk extremely well.

    Lastly, the meat of his value is in the regular service, the premium service is exactly what he describes - risky plays that are probably going to be wrong more than they are right, so if one can manage the risks well with taking 2 wrong positions, for every 1 correct one, and balance the risk/reward ratio to ensure a portfolio that generally moves higher, pony up the money...

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  170. If you TRADE options, and have a BIG account, minimum 6 figures you'd POSSIBLY want the premium.

    I don't trade options so I see no reason in getting it. Also I don't know what you are talking about when you say the subscription/reports are different now? The nightly analysis on the dollar, market, and gold are identical as they were prior to him announcing the premium subscription! The only difference is his listed portfolio. Most people had different portfolios than him anyways.

    If I had to conjecture, his premium is just added leverage, and options. He was short 5% in the normal the other day, and maybe short 10 or 15% in the premium. I highly doubt he was buying any puts or calls at the time.


    Remember the last time Gary said to be in cash, prior to the last intermediate decline? Yeah, it worked.

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  171. IVE EATEN SIVER

    Try to read this and understand it-

    the ORIGINAL Question was simply...GDX and GDXJ are up, do you have an inkling of how far up they may go??

    NOT ASKING FOR CRAZY OPTIONS TRADE...just a possible GDX target. The answer was...

    ...Blogger Gary said...

    I do have an inkling and I went over it in the aggressive portfolio report last night :)

    May 18, 2011 6:59 AM

    That question seemed fair...not asking for an " RISKY options play"... just asking as a subscriber...Do you think you know GDX price target??

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  172. VONDA

    Exactly what I was thinking :)

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  173. SLV/GLD opened with back gap up that will eventually get filled.

    On a bright note, all the snow is officially gone from my yard.

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  174. Vonda,

    Gary was talking about the ratio. That ratio probably doesn't need to be public on the blog because that information was for subscribers. I don't see anyways how one would have a question when it was very simply laid out in the other night's report.

    I actually combine Gary's analysis with the Doc for trades now. That has worked well. That ratio was up past 7 yesterday and so I took a small trade with GDXJ. Again this is what's considered a counter trend rally which should, for most, be avoided.

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  175. There are too few people on this blog who offer a justified and respectful critique of Gary's calls (DG is one of those respectful people, IMO). It saddens me to see such barbaric insults and many unwarranted criticisms hurled at Gary to the point where it has now become sport on this blog.

    I would not be surprised if Gary said, "To hell with this" and shut everything down. We all have our limits and Gary's patience has been incredible.

    Gary, if you ever get to the end of your rope and you decide to shut things down, please think about shutting the comments section first and keep your daily posts running - they have helped me immensely over the last few months.

    Many of the comments on this blog have left me shaking my head. Shameful is all I can say.

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  176. Alex,

    Do you think Gary should respond to everyone of your questions everyday for $250 a year or something. You know how much time that would consume of his, for pennies on the hour?

    He's trying to tell you for the amount of time you're taking up, go get the premium subscription.

    Targets? Haven't you traded enough to have a good idea yourself? Follow the Doc, he took that same trade yesterday- you'll know when he covers.

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  177. Sophia,
    The only thing different is that I cover more aggressive strategies. Some are in the metals sector and some are not related at all. I'm just looking for things that I think have an edge.

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  179. Thank you Mr. T for your response. You have confirmed for me that Gary's other service is definately for more experienced and not for those not willing to take on heavy risk and who might be more distracted or worried about heavy losses. I think you would have to fully understand the risk/rewards to know how to play Gary's higher service.

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  180. SILVER

    1)Iit wasnt my question

    2) He DID respond, right?? So he took the 'time' (which you are saying is why he didnt), he just avoided the questions answer.

    3) what is this blog for, if not for discussing trades??


    then you said .."He's trying to tell you for the amount of time you're taking up, go get the premium subscription."

    Were you here when he said " I do NOT want ANYONE to buy this report, so I will jack the price up for that reason."

    Then you said..."Targets? Haven't you traded enough to have a good idea yourself? "

    answer ... no, I'm new at this. I actually started trading last week, but again, that aside...It wasnt MY question. Please scroll up, and get on page before you add your brilliance :)

    Is this ROBERT the drunk, that blew his account out and then Blew his stack at Gary, scolding him ruthlessly last winter?? No answer needed...I already know it is...another blogger emailed me that you are he...dont waste my time :)

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