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Saturday, November 19, 2011

Interview with Kerry Lutz of the financial survival network

Interview

208 comments:

  1. Gary's Guru status updated 11-18-11

    http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14562/individual-gurus/gary-savage-tracking-smart-money/

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  2. LOL funny how I get a rating below average even though there's only one hedge fund in the world with similar results.

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  3. I'm not trying to be a smart alec, but..

    Thats probably because it's 'Guru' vs 'Guru' for the same long time period, not vs. hedge fund.

    Wouldnt being compared to Hedgefunds be deemed unfair, since they arent able to be as 'nimble' or flip funds from one day to another and back as easily ? They have to ride losses for a bit.

    ALSO- when you were OLD TURKEY in 2008 they had you down -38% and -45% repeatedly, so that was calculated in.

    Now that you use Tech Analyses and trade the wiggles more, you havent had many negative numbers in a QUITE a while :)

    (That WAS said to be funny...J/K)

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  4. ACTUALLY , I just skimmed some of the better rated GURU's. One was observed from 2004 to 2006!!

    How unfair was THAT...you were included in 2008!

    You should call in and protest...have them look at your record for 2004 to 2006

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  5. Rating is based in forecasting not performance.
    You would be 110% if it was based on performance.

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  6. I wonder how I could be down in 2008 when I was shorting drillers???

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  7. Gary,

    Great interview with a lot of topics covered.

    I really like the new strategy on SMTP and appreciate the enormous amount of time you spend each day on reports/questions/interviews.

    Thank you.

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  8. Does the rating really matter if we are making money? Kind of like folks who want a fancy job title... doesn't matter what you call me as long as I am making good money.

    SHOW ME THE MONEY!

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  9. Good job on the interview Gary, I enjoyed it.

    That site looks to be trying to pull your public calls on the blog? Not a very accurate measure I'd say!

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  10. Yeah, I looked over some of the other GURU's.

    I dont see how its really representing anything of Value. They have one guy with a 60+% rating since 2002, but his last 254 day return showing was -47%.

    So he's rated great over 9 yrs , but he just lost 1/2 your money YTD?

    All you had to do was make 1 call then , "Gold is in a Bull , Buy gold and Silver"...and you're rating would be based on that call. 100% :)

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  11. alex, that last statement is a good point and shows why you do not need any gurus or any daily thought at all really. If you had bought gold in 1970, sold in 1980, and bought stocks, sold stocks in 2000 and bought gold, you would be up an enormous amount, beating literally every guru by hundreds of percent, with little time invested and hardly any stress. All you need to decide is which decade or two to be in which one. If people only had patience and discipline they could slowly accumulate a small fortune, but I guess patience and discipline are rare.

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  12. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-run-on-europe-begins-as-global-investors-head-for-the-hills-2011-11

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  13. Make no mistake, there is huge stress involved with holding Old Turkey. Every investor feels it at every intermediate decline and I hesitate to guess how many bottles of Maalox were consumed during the 8 year cycle low in 2008.

    The only people that can talk about no stress are the ones trading in hindsight or the people not in the market.

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  14. Hi Gary,

    No, I do not see it that way at all. I used the 2008 correction to buy more! In a secular bull I simply use the 20% or greater corrections as my entry point for adding to my position. I am feeling no stress at all regarding gold, though I own quite a bit. How stressed can I be when all my prior purchases were in triple digit territory and it trades now at 1700ish? Plus, I believe firmly that it is not close to its top, so why stress? No gurus needed!

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  15. gideon,

    I agree with what you said. But I also agree with Gary that only physical buyers/holders are ablet he ride the gold bull without many emotional mistakes. Many times, many gold bugs sell their paper gold on a deep correction not because of the fear but instead they were driven by the greed to buy it back cheaper. They later found it is not easy to buy it back with the same price.

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  16. I slept on things, did the math, rechecked stuff and have pretty much decided to close my leverage position at the open tonight.

    It isn't the leverage or the loss of profits. It's that I mangled this trade and I realize I'm trying to salvage it by bending my rules at this point and put in stops that aren't correct (and too close to subsequent buys.)

    I need to reset and resume things 'by the book'.

    There are a few other reasons as well which I will get into (observations that make me thing we DO have at least SOME more downside on gold instead of already bottoming). Some of those observations are my own (after calmly reflecting the weekend) and also are helped by history, gary, poly, and a few other sources.

    I still have a core position (less than 1x) and havent' changed that yet.

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  17. Restating my issue a bit from earlier...I thought my position was safe with a small loss down to about 1680 or so. ( I expect us to hold that or at least bounce from there).

    However I realized on Fri that I had messed up my calculations and would take a large loss by that point.

    My first reaction was to move up stops to fri low and, essentially, HOPE the low was in. Yet my original belief was a low could go down (but not break 1680 approx). So I was now putting in trades that went against my original belief. Not good.

    If i didn't have my leveraged position right now, I would NOT be buying it here. That fact/question time and time again serves me well when deciding the correct course of action.

    Overall I'll only be down a small amount from my totals a few weeks ago. But I did give up all the profits I had at the top a week or so ago.

    It happens. I (we) have been here before. As long as you don't get taken out of the game you can keep playing.

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  18. TZ,

    HOPE is not welcomed word for a trader :)

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  19. I was trying to salvage the broken trade and, essentially, trying to talk my way into holding it and hoping.

    I've been doing this long enough to see that trap (although it took a bit of time....had we continued down directly I would have fallen for it).

    Out now except for some core.
    No much worse for the wear. Still a massively up year gain-wise.

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  20. Just read that Iran will be attacked in less than an hour. Could be BS, but we'll know shortly. Futures are down.

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  21. Funny how the news almost always falls into place with where we are at in the market cycle.

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  22. well if Iran will be attacked in an hour I doubt the media would know anything about it

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  23. Wonder if this will be a holiday week with hedge funds managers left for holidays leaving the trend and light volumes

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  24. Driver,

    As slanted end of world bearish zero hedge is, you can almost bet that they would have the breaking news first of this magnitude. Not a peep in the headlines there yet.

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  25. My gold system stop has dipped a bit and is at 1710 and change.It also went below the 9 day displaced average late last week.

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  26. Gary,

    It is funny, even during the day news hits the wire right on trendlines, pivots, etc.

    TZ,

    May I suggest you start trading around cycles, ive watched you have many good entries and winning trades just to give it all back and then some...One of the biggest mistakes a gold futures trader can do is use tight stops, you will just continue to get whipsawed out of positions. You are trying to hit a home run, but would be much better off hitting a bunch of base hits.

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  27. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  28. I haven`t seen this posted here so I thought it may be interesting for most here. Federal reserve audit. Somewhere around mindblowing or maybe a little beyond;

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.11/gaoaudit.html

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  29. 86d4life, the amount of money involved there and listed is mind boggling. Makes me wonder if economics is just quackery

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  30. Driver,

    Zero Hedge is the preferred site for conspiracy idiots.

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  31. I would suggest that it's not a coincidence that the news and cycles seem to match up. The events that drive the news are created from human emotions, as are cycles. Mutually arising. At times one might be a lagging indicator, and at other times the opposite might be true.

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  32. The history of civilization is a history of people conspiring. The image of the world most people have is just a shadow of what really happens. I'd rather have conspiracy sites exist and be able to discern the truth for myself, than not have them exist.

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  33. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  34. William,

    what do you mean?

    It's obvious that this guy "driver" is a troll making stuff up.

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  35. Joseph,

    I was refering to what Blindweb was saying. I agree that it would be better to have conspiracies exposed and discern the truth for myself, than live in the dark.

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  36. In historical comparisons (thousands of years), we're clearly living in a period of prosperity that is an extreme outliner.
    Unfortunately that same history suggests that will change, mostly likely rather profoundly and likely violently.

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  37. Poly... I agree. How long will the hard working Chinese work for us for $0.90 an hour? That's what is supporting much of our "rich" life. I've worked with then on imports. They are very competent and work hard. It's amazing how over valued the USD is.

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  38. Poly,

    I agree that we have prosperity, but I disagree about the concept that it will end. We have prosperity because we have made dramatic improvements in the basic quality of life.

    I guess if you believe in an apocalyptic future like "The Road" or "The Postman" which are post atomic war, then perhaps those concepts go hand-in-hand with your theory of a violent end. I don't deny it's not possible, but we have lived with the specter of atomic holocaust since 1945 and so far, sane minds have prevailed.

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  39. Forgot to mention "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute. Read it in high school, really amazing book. Depressing, but thoroughly riveting.

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  40. "but we have lived with the specter of atomic holocaust since 1945 and so far, sane minds have prevailed." Does that include Iran?

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  41. Looks like we need a little more pain in the miners before being bought again.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM

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  42. SF:

    I've noticed before that $BPGDM can continue to dip while $HUI bounces. It must be because of what $BPGDM technically represents, which is % miner shares up vs. down (or something like that) rather than an actual sentiment reading. That said, divergence here may be a useful tool for spotting an impending bottom.

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  43. Elaine,

    No I'm not talking about an extreme ending of that degree. Simply that our living standards do fluctuate greatly over very long term cycles and that significant wars involving all people reoccur consistently.

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  44. $BPGDM is the percentage of miners in uptrends on their point and figure charts.

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  45. Morning everyone, just checking in, dollar seems to be on the rise and putting pressure on stocks and probably our miners. Just going to have to be patient.

    WW nice call on shorting stocks. What did you pickup spxu?

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  46. I went 3.5x gold futures at the 1700 dip.

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  47. The break below 1700 was my previous buy/add point that I was shooting for and also the reason I asked myself yesterday "self (I said), If you messed up your stop on your existing position and if you are waiting for a buy at 1700, then why are you trying to hold and hope on something higher up with a 1711 stop?"

    So now let's see what happens I guess. Very small loss on this position if we go lower. I think a good chance of holding.

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  48. PS: it is now very easy for gary to get his swing low as early at 6pm today (all times market-based eastern, unlike this freak blog which works on gary's timezone instead :-)

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  49. i also bought back the gold at $1705 ...this might have been it.

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  50. I doubt that was it. Common to see a pump at 8.30.

    The 11am dip or the " dip at the pit" here could be it, but would like to see a $1,785 level drop.

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  51. I expect to see buyers at $1700 and at the intermediate trend line, if it can get that low. It's late enough in the daily cycle that it doesn't make a lot of sense to buy now and then place a stop. You are just asking to get whipsawed out of what will ultimately be a winning trade.

    I'm just not sure the stock market is ready to bottom yet, and I'm more interested in miners than gold. I need to see some sign that stocks have bottomed. That would require a swing.

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  52. The German Bund 10Y just got wacked in the last 10 minutes...Turning point or is the German Debt the next on the line of fire?
    Tic Tac....

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  53. Ascending triangle in the us dollar index is getting compressed. My bet is this is the bottom for equities. I'm going long at the the open. Bye bye dollar.

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  54. sold my $EUO position and bot some $GLD

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  55. Poly,

    Do you mean $1685 level? Just curious.

    Elaine

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  56. Joe,
    If you can have the patience to wait for a swing you will dramatically reduce your exposure to draw downs.

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  57. Gary,

    At what level will a swing form.

    Thanks
    Susan

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  58. WW how low do we go pal? 1180 'or deeper? Do you sell your short or are you holding?

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  59. Do we have a 4 day rule? Down 4 days in a row?

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  60. Morning, fellers. Getting filled on the remainder of my buy orders today, the ones placed before I left town. Might be early, but very comfortable owning miners even if they go lower first.

    I missed this since I've been away:

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-21/bid-for-jaguar-shows-record-premium-cheap-with-chinese-real-m-a.html

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  61. Eliane,

    Yes sorry, $1,685, (iPhone error)

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  62. I'm now at the max I'm willing to risk (10%) until I am up nicely, then I can add more into dips after that while keeping total risk fixed at this level.

    If they go lower, I might even tweak my risk level a bit higher. :)

    I'm in these for the long haul, as stated before. Good luck and happy trading!

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  63. The big problem with selling short is that most of time the majority of the losses occur right at the end of a cycle so one is constantly at risk of a bottom being put in and a sharp reversal.

    This is one of the big reasons I don't like to sell short. It's just a very tough way to make money.

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  64. Haggerty,

    Holding my short, if things playout as I mentioned this weekend the SPX is about to bleed.

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  65. Cautiously added a few contracts here at 1700.6. I'll back up the truck if we make it into the 1680s.

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  66. Haggerty,

    I believe if we dont take out the Oct 4th low during this daily cycle, it will be in the next...we have to see how it goes.

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  67. just took out my shorts on QQQs

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  68. Bought a little SRTY on Friday, going to put a trailing stop of 3%

    Thanks fellas

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  69. Just a note, but for the last 20 months, the HUI has had intra-month moves of roughly 78 points, which is roughly where we're at from the high in November. I do expect volatility to increase going forward, but it will be interesting to see how much the range expands if we head into an '08 scenario. Mind your position sizes!

    Back to vacation for me. Have a good Thanksgiving. :)

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  70. hey Gary,
    never mind those ratings ... they will try to break anyone that make people $$$$ ... if you can intentionally mislead people or if you're a simply a moron then I can assure you you will be called the guru of gurus and will be on CNBC in no time

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  71. I want to increase my physical Global Gold account from ten to twenty five percent of net worth. Any thoughts about the possibilities of lower gold prices out into the future? Just trying to decide whether to average in or buy it all around the 1700 area. Any thoughts appreciated.

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  72. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  73. Joseph a few others bring up zero hedge often.

    I have to say, personally, that if I wanted to bring someone up to speed on the current state of the world, how the financial system (really) works, how bad things are and where this train is heading I would start with zerohedge and my #1 recommendation.

    Nothing else comes very close to shining light so quickly.

    And, yes, many of the 'conspiracies' are true. Bear in mind a conspiracy is nothing more than 2 or more people working towards a goal in relative secret.

    Wanna hear a few 'conspiracies'?
    The management of starbux and mcdonalds. The next big franchise Disney is working on. The next flights Southwest Air is planning.

    To not think there are 'conspiracies' at the highest levels of power and finance is lunacy. They exist everywhere else.

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  74. I just want to brag that I, Harry, am the holder of the single solitary gold contract traded at exactly $1700.0 at 9:51am. You may all bow down to me in deference to my new status as a trading god.

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  75. Harry,

    Better knock on some wood.

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  76. High 5,

    I think that if the SPX is looking to take out the Oct 4th low, we may see gold test the 150dma again around $1645.

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  77. HARRY,

    Put in a stop that you are both willing and able to take the loss on. There is no guarantee this low holds although I'm currently betting that way.

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  78. This late in the daily cycle I'm going to give it some room to run. I have a stop at 1672 for the time being. I'm planning on adding another five contracts if we get a clear tag of the intermediate trendline.

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  79. F.W.I.W.

    I was looking at this (along with cycle counts) this weekend

    GDX trendline support and Fib support line up in the same place. I DO NOT want it to close below them, really.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RdsfA35nT

    SILVER---FIB #'S HERE ARE BASED ON THE RUN FROM SEPT LOWS TO OCT HIGHS

    http://www.screencast.com/t/LyxCZBD7UDoj

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  80. I think with the market bleeding gold is going to rip right through the IT trendline like it is not even there. The next support is the 120dma around 1677.

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  81. WW, why do you estimate gold at 1645 so low?

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  82. I'm betting on 1639. Well, I'm not actually betting on it, I'm waiting for Gary. I just wanted to get in on the office pool :)

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  83. Anyone here subscribe to Warren Bevan of Precious Metal Stock Review or read his free weekly report?

    The guy just officially blew his account. Hes gone from over $150K last month into the teens today. He missed the entire rally up and then I think he was trying to make up for it and poof!

    As an avid reader of his weekend report. I am shocked. Moral of the story...be VERY careful with trading options!

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  84. 1639 is in line with a trendline drawn on the March, July, and October lows.

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  85. at ease,

    If SPX continues bleeding, it is clearly putting a beating on Gold...1645 is the 150dma, if gold loses the 120dma (1677)

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  86. GC oversold on 4h RSI. We should be getting close. Added another contract at 1689.8...

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  87. at ease,

    BTW, im not saying that will happen today.

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  88. silver is barely budging. Buying my silver position back here.

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  89. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  90. Harry, take a look at previous bottoms in DCLs on the 4 hour RSI. There's a lot of room down from here if you are using that indicator.

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  91. So are you expecting 1645 for the intermediate cycle low, or within this daily cycle low? Got intermittent internet access today, so checking for futures entry, so yours would be not today, hmmm?

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  92. >As an avid reader of his weekend report. I am shocked. Moral of the story...be VERY careful with trading options!

    Don't trade options.
    You will lose your money.

    The majority of people on this blog who trade options are little more than gamblers. When they say "Oh no, I MAKE money" usually either:

    A) they have funky math that conveniently avoids their losers and they really lose money.

    B) When they DO make money, usually they are making significantly LESS than if they were NOT trading options and holding an equity or future instead. In other words they are STILL losing money (paying much of the profit to the options maker and his shiny computer.)

    This section #B is the one that not 1 in 100 can understand. It is the reason most people will still respond "but I MAKE trading options". Yeah? Well you do and the amount is crap compared to what you would make if you weren't doing options.

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  93. not really trading much this week but gold would be interesting again after they run everyone's stop at 1681.2. nice pivot at the 1666 price i may take a swing on.

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  94. Did Gary not at some point mention that the 50 DMA should not get violated during the ascent of an IT cycle?
    We are $20 below that level and seem to be dropping ...

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  95. All cash and not complaining ... just wondering if this IT cycle is heading for failure ...

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  96. Avann,

    Big concern of mine, the loss of the 50dma.

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  97. I didnt post this chart earlier, because it's a rather new study for me,
    and I dont trust it yet...
    --- but my price target (at least temporary) in Gold was $1686

    AND WE'RE THERE NOW-

    http://www.screencast.com/t/b3zOzzh7ka

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  98. so far mkts ignored drop in $---mini drop.-----if goes negative i would think Broads and PM rally. A patient game.

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  99. On i minute chart $ keeps flagging and drops down out of. Use that chart as fits another indicator well.

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  100. also i've been harping on this a bit lately but i think the 10 year UST (/zn) is probably a better indicator for US paper demand than something like /dx since the dollar is relative to all the other sinking ships.

    the 10 year has been ranging for about 3 weeks now and has gone nowhere all day, if not down.

    buying a smidge of GDX here.

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  101. just broke down out of third flaf. it will likely need negative prints and stay negative.

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  102. i will still look at $ as key. problen weekly monthly on $ still uptrend. internals on euo were +

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  103. There's strong chart support here around 1680 (top of the last daily cycle). Right at the intermediate trendline. 4 hour RSI well into oversold territory. Day 22 of a daily cycle (well into the timing band).

    Also, the dollar has taken a bit of a tumble from its overnight lows and even for a right-translated cycle it's getting to be time for a drop into a daily cycle low. Stocks also in the timing for a low. They probably have a little ways to drop but Gary has said he expects stocks to bottom after gold.

    Everything looks to me like it's almost time to pull the trigger, but I'm going to hold off a bit longer. A very wise trader once told me that the way everybody goes broke is by trying to call tops and bottoms. Much safer to wait for a clear bottom and catch a nice trending move. I'm holding a few contracts but I'll wait for a swing and/or Gary's call to enter a full position. Even if the next daily cycle is shallow I only need a 50-point move to get me to my target return for the year.

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  104. My next "catch a knife" trade target is approx 1620-1630.

    I could see and argue a buyzone of approx 1670 but it has some problems from my point of view.

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  105. I think we have one last little puke out to go before this is over. I'd like to see another oversold reading on the GC 5m chart before adding.

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  106. The lower this goes the more posts there are with everyones "next level of support." No idea why everyone keeps trying to catch a falling knife.

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  107. there's the stop run. either we get a sharp turn or i'm getting the feeling gold will slink on down to its 233 day SMA around 1560 now.

    last support was the 144, currently at 1750. let's see how that price does this time.

    GDX faring well, relatively.

    /es at 1168 is the 1597 day. gotta hold that or look out below.

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  108. Happily in cash and not intending to find a bottom (thanks Gary!). Observation only - as gold makes new lows today GDX is holding its lows so far.

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  109. i'm sorry, i meant 1650. the 144 sma on /gc is 1650. 233 is 1560.

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  110. As I expected, gold treated the IT trendline like it wasnt even there.

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  111. Gold is also below the 120dma. Next support is the 150dma if the 1670 level breaks down, the market seems to have found a temporary bottom and gold still continued to fall off.

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  112. I just caught the falling knife at 1674. I won't know if I was hurt for a few more days. I'm hoping it didn't hit any vital organs.

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  113. ok someone could explain me how exactly look swing low with an example ?

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  114. Jarek - both the swing low and swing high are in the terminology document in the premium site.

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  115. Definition of a swing low:

    When the pitcher throws a low ball to the batter's knees. And the batter is able to hit the ball for a base hit.


    James

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  116. Gold looks broken on the charts...after having lost the 10sma on a weekly during the IC decline (typical during IC declines) gold had reclaimed it, it has now lost the 10wma again, only seen during previous D-waves.

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  117. Right now I have to say Gold looks to be in a continuation of a D-wave. A break of the 150dma will be my confirmation.

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  118. Gold is now approaching the 30 week moving average, the 30 halted all previous Intermediate declines during this entire C-wave, If the 30 doesnt hold....

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  119. WW, we may just hit your 1645. the way it's going today.

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  120. Well it appears Poly called this expected drastic decline for the daily cycle low.

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  121. Trend is negative now for the general market according to Demark theory. On his twitter page today, Kevin Depew stated SP (pit futures) qualified the TDST down WEEKLY level at 1219.50 with the open today. This implies a full 13-week BUY countdown (or about 3 months of lower prices until the WEEKLY exhaustion wears out). For the MONTHLY qualification, or what happened in 2008, that level of doom is all the way down at 1049.33. As we had an up close for the month of October - IF the SP closes November below that level, and the first trading day of December opens lower, then we are in 2008 territory. As it stands, that is a long way down from here with the Mclellan Oscillator pushing deeper into oversold levels. If short, I wouldn't push it - you will probably be able to do so from higher levels, especially if Santa decides to make an appearance...
    So, if the above MONTHLY scenario does not play out and unless November somehow miraculously closes positive, it would be at least until February before we could qualify that MONTHLY down level (up close in December, down in January, down open first trading day of Feb). But the WEEKLY downside qualification is still quite a blow for the general market...

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  122. Nibbling Q's and GLD here. Closed EUO calls.

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  123. Weird strength in miners and silver.

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  124. If the previous two bear markets are any indication, and so far they have been, the bounce out of this daily cycle low in stocks will be very brief (4-6 days) and the market will continue to new lows (maybe SPX 1000) within the next few weeks. If gold does not decouple from stocks, the next bounce out of the daily cycle low may turn out to be a bull trap.

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  125. I've got the 30 week MA at $1649.04, does that match up with your figure?

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  126. biotech sector having quite the day relative to everything else. XBI up 2.7% with fairly significant buy divergence beginning last friday.

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  127. at ease,

    If the scenario Poly outlined (failed Intermediate cycle)plays out, this (or the next, probably extremely left translated) daily cycle will fail, not just a hard daily cycle correction as we are seeing now.

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  128. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  129. at ease,

    Keep in mind...Poly's scenario was previous D-waves, not a deep daily cycle correction.

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  130. GLD tried to ride the upper Bollinger Band but lost it, rolled over and fell to the lower Bollinger Band where it could find support.

    That is one scenario I see happening to UUP (dollar). It is struggling to hold onto the upper Bollinger Band. If it rolls over and falls to the lower band it will close that big gap down low on UUP.

    This is the "super committee's" opportunity to show the rabble that a smaller group of people is much better at deciding our fate than a larger group. As bad as it looks now, they probably will not fail.

    Just a guess.

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  131. Nice to see silver pushing higher..

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  132. WW,

    Here was last weeks call for a DCL, I would say it called for a deep low :)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p79201216716&a=248984835

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  133. ckpc,

    The 30 week moving average in Gold futures is at 1654.

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  134. Poly,

    Definitely brother, I said so myself that I believed we were going to see some serious downside when I mentioned that I took off the Gold futures at 1720, I knew a break of the 50sma was going to be bad.

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  135. Purchased M H R

    (adding to a core position)

    chart looks to be acting very well in a sell off conditions. I can put a MENTAL stop below 50sma...if itgoes there on HEAVY SELLING....but I doubt I'll need it .

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  136. Lightened up on my market short near the lows, looking for a decent bounce to add again.

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  137. Intraday stop at 1657 Gold and 53.70 for the Q's.

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  138. WW
    You looking for intra-day bounce or daily to add on. I'm presently short tza.

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  139. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  140. Now isn't the time to be adding to shorts. It's too late in the daily cycle. Now is the time to be preparing to go long.

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  141. Riley,

    I expect we will see a decent bounce sometime this week.

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  142. Gary,

    If the bear market has indeed resumed I dont agree that its time to go long in the market, and any rallies should be shorted.

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  143. Watch the dollar. Nothing happening there. It's a clue this market sell off may not have legs.

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  144. Gary,

    Are you expecting that we are about to see the market bounce out of the coming DCL and push above the 200 again?

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  145. I know everyone likes that candle in miners :)

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  146. If the dollar cracks we will almost certainly do just that.

    This is why I don't sell short. It's too hard to make money. The system is against you. Plus cycles are only good for calling bottoms.

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  147. Blogger Ivan G said...

    I know everyone likes that candle in miners :)

    YESSIR , : ]

    -and I was just thinking that if we gap up tomorrow in many of these Miners (and GDX)...you get the "Abandoned Baby"

    BIG sell off in Gold and Markets , NICE recovery in many Miners.

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  148. WW,

    I look at the Treasuries and Bund markets....they have been bought this market with a certain lack of conviction ( old habits) - they are now lower than this morning...
    We had a nice 5-6% selloff, Italian and French spreads are easying off, maybe time to book profits and have a nice meal with the cash made.....

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  149. Another DeMark caution point for shorts from my poor man's indicator on ThinkOrSwim:
    Belle of the Ball AAPL is recording a perfected DAILY 9 Setup BUY today right above it's 50-day. Good for 1-4 trading days, so into next Monday. Maybe it can rally into the 50-day again and then a good place to re-short if you are so inclined...
    Bad boy bank JEF is one-day behind and could record a 9 tomorrow. BAC recorded DAILY Buy on Friday, but not doing so good with it so far today.

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  150. And if the dollar doesnt crack, we will be looking at a stretched daily in stocks.

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  151. Bought a small position near the close in GDX and DGP.

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  152. One more for you from poor man's DeMark land:
    /6E Euro futures are also showing a non-perfected DAILY BUY signal recording today, so Euro might show some strength if their politicians talk some serious Turkey through the end of the week.
    Non-perfected setups usually tend to achieve work to achieve perfection, so this might imply a quick move below 134.20 before we see that upside.
    Dollar (/DX futures) doesn't perfectly correspond to the Euro, but is on the 4th day of 12 following a DAILY Sequential 13 SELL, so that might be telling to the lack of a big move in such a down tape today.

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  153. Coolkevs,

    Thanks for all those reports! It is a great help with those markets

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  154. Well,

    It looks to have sold down to that trendline, and reversed , closing where it needed to.



    http://www.screencast.com/t/RdsfA35nT

    Closed at $56.20

    We'll see what tomorrow brings!

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  155. Gary and WW
    Listening, closed Tza, was already in with small trade. Probably stick to Gary's signals from now on. All cash now. Thanks Guys. Nice charts Alex and Poly.

    Riley

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  156. Gold held the 120dma, putting the gold futures back on, looks like a DCL is in, going light for now.

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  157. W2,

    Well done! You seem to nail those moves quite nicely!

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  158. WW,

    Moving averages make me laugh. It seems like whatever # supports the argument. Earlier someone mentioned the 133 or the 244 or something but good call. How do you know which MA to use?

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  159. James,

    I believe your talking about ST. D with the 233, not every MA holds under heavy selling pressure, and usually if an MA holds it's on a closing basis, although more often then not we will see gold bounce directly off of MA's. Pull up a daily on gold with a 150 on it and take a look at all intermediate bottoms of this entire c-wave, you'll see how effective the 150 was. If you want to see how gold obeys a moving average on a shorter time frame watch the 200sma on a 5 minute chart for a couple days, gold retraces back and forth to the 200 and crawls it for hours sometimes before it either breaks out or to the downside.

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  160. WW - learn a lot from your posts about the moving averages. Thanks. I am not trading based on them since I am not as experienced (think it should be obvious from my posts).

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  161. James,

    BTW, many times we see reversals or bottoms off of price levels that don't coincide with MA's, so "whatever number supports the argument" is not the case....and I never realized that MA's were in question, the proof of their effectiveness is printed all over the charts...lol!! But like any tool in this business nothing is ALWAYS a sure shot, that's to be expected.

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  162. NFLX has finally filled the last gap in the 60's

    Any takers?

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  163. Final one for today: In my poor man thinkorswim DeMark, Ford (F) is showing selling exhaustion on multiple levels. A DAILY perfected BUY is occurring today, for a 1-4 day bounce - yes, indeed. On the WEEKLY, it is on bar 9 of 12 after a WEEKLY sequential BUY, that would have handed you a 30% return in October with a Buy and Trade strategy. Most importantly, though, we are recording a MONTHLY BUY setup this month, so December-March should be pretty good times for Ford, if the theory about dispersion of stocks is a good one.Classically, there is very good technical support for the stock: 200-week simple moving average is at 9.24 and 50-month moving average is at 9.09, so you might think their might be some support there??? It sure bounced off of that 9.09 level almost to the penny in October... Just food for thought...

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  164. Sophia,

    Thanks :) Im not completely convinced yet that gold is done crying, still think its possible it tests the 150dma, so decided to take it easy here, definitely wasnt the type of bottom I like to see if it was indeed the DCL.

    Intelliblue,

    Glad to hear :)

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  165. Weird. They are saying the 'super committee' failed cut the debt but I didn't think the committee was due to issue any results until Wednesday. I guess it doesn't matter. The worst fear is now over after Standard & Poor's just said it will not cut the US credit rating even after the super committee's failure.

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  166. Just looking at some charts and previous D-waves, if gold does have a bit of downside left here and bottoms on the 150dma, its likely we will have just seen a shallow D-wave and are about to enter an A-wave.

    Gary what do think?

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  167. Dent said on Cavuto Dow 3800 in 2012. Wow what a haircut that would be. Gold:Dow ratio could hit 1 next year if that were the case.

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  168. I think it's more likely that we already saw a mild D-wave and are already in an A-wave.

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  169. Dent was predicting DOW 38,000 a few years ago.

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  170. "Dent is as comfortable calling for Dow 35,000, as he did 13 years ago, as he is forecasting Dow 3800 now. His 1998 book, The Roaring 2000s: Building the Wealth and Lifestyle You Desire in the Greatest Boom in History, was a New York Times best seller. Its bleaker companion, The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down, co-written with Rodney Johnson, will be published this week."

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052702303392404576566841665679146.html

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  171. if gc breaks 1693.80 buy the first 15 minute pullback.
    TZ- do you trade minis or full?

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  172. High 5

    Your avatar is kinda of hard to look at. Can you get two girls kissing instead?

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  173. Yeah, that should be Larry Sinclair instead of Chavez, except he was bumped off with a "hit-and-run" driver.

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  174. SF,

    I was waiting for someone to complain....LOL. I'm surprised though the first person on this blog to cringe at my avatar is from San Francisco. But yes I will change it now...thank you for asking.

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  175. "Is GLD Really As Good As Gold?"

    Pretty good article for anyone who doesn't understand how GLD works. No conspiracy information though, sorry.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/11/15/is-gld-really-as-good-as-gold/

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  176. Thx. I don't live in SF. The baseball team is in SF...

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  177. Bought a pilot 'tip-toe' position in April Gold at $1682. May just be an oversold bounce up towards resistance at $1720. Time will tell. Good call W2.

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  178. .....funny how I get a rating below average even though there's only one hedge fund in the world with similar results.

    Sorry Gary but that is reality.I realy like to know what you are talking about in terms of your performance ??? I am not even sure it is funny that you compare your blog to Hedge Funds - which ones ?
    There are over 8000 out there currently - many of them not tracked by CXOadvisory etc.
    And finally the question everybody likes you to answer : GARY what is your current 2011 performance ?????

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  179. >I think it's more likely that we already saw a mild D-wave and are already in an A-wave.

    Despite my assertion earlier that I didn't think we would see more ABCD's from this point (I have done a lot of flip flopping of my views lately), I was pondering this same thing.

    Actually the decline appears to be a D and the rally just completed was the A (it met the criteria from my point of view - criteria I missed and didn't sell on).

    I think we are declining into a B here. And since this would be my first "B" here at SMT and with Gary, I hope he can provide some commentary as to what to expect from this angle.

    We are bouncing now late night and I can see the argument that 1668 might hold as a low. I didn't go long on it and was looking lower (classic bottoming behavior). WIll take a bit more time to evaluate I guess.

    PS: I trade regular futures contracts, not mini's. The mini's have same tax treatment as far as I know from an earlier question. Easy enough to search the Net to find out - dont take my word.

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