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Thursday, November 17, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

Another portfolio change has been posted to the website.

76 comments:

  1. Cant seem to get into the premium site.

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  2. Surprised no word from SB? This is his kind of action..

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  3. here comes the 10 year. hold onto your butts!

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  4. TZ:

    You say there's "no outperformance" for GDX but today is yet another example of a trend this intermediate cycle where the miners move more than 2x gold on the up days and less than 2x gold on the down days.

    Yes you can just as well lever up 2x on gold for the same upside but you're also exposed 2x on the downside, as well as taking on leverage (either paying margin interest or being exposed to decay through options or leveraged ETFs). If this asymmetry in miner performance relative to gold is real, then it would indeed be better than simply levering up on gold.

    Also don't forget to look at CEF today. GDX has been outperforming CEF since August, and could well likely continue to do so given the weakness in silver.

    I think your only valid pushback is this miner strength needs to "prove" itself by holding for a longer period of time than the last few cycles but in the time that you wait there's an opportunity cost.

    There's the obvious tax benefits and flexibility of futures, but not everyone can/wants to play with futures so this is a moot rationale for many folks.

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  5. silver is making it a habit to crash every few months...

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  6. I would think he'd have a smartphone to chime in.

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  7. Here is the gold C wave. Targets are as I have been stating for months.

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  8. GST,

    That's the idea...to make everyone sick and tried and disinterested in silver. It usually takes about two years after every parabolic blowoff and as soon as all the retailer investors are gone, itll start moving up and make a new highs. Just take a look at all past porabola action since the bull started.

    This action were seeing in silver is nothing new and should be expected.

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  9. WW,
    Did you follow your plan at 1720?

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  10. Man I'm hoping Gold finds a bottom before the market does....kind of like tomorrow would be nice. I've done good for myself just following the G man

    However I have been an epic failure trading on behalf of my family . I have them in at about 33% old turkey SIL, SLV, CEF,SLW. I Swear to god I started trading for them a week before the crash in May....One account is down 11% as of today the other about 8% I guess that's not to bad considering

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  11. at ease,

    Gold is sitting on the 50sma now, it dipped below it a bit but not much.

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  12. WW,
    You anticipate it will hold on 50 ma?

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  13. Gold put in a decent stretch below the 10 day today, typical of a daily cycle low.

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  14. at ease,

    I guess we will know if Gary is calling the bottom tomorrow on a swing low :)

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  15. WW, So I assume then you followed your plan and got out at 1720? and holding til then to get back in?

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  16. at ease,

    Im still long, I spotted the bottom (atleast for now) earlier and its still holding above that low and the 50sma.

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  17. daily trin hangs arround 4---think need 5-6.

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  18. WW:

    When do you consider a moving average as "lost"? Is it a function of how far below the SMA and what time of day? If we get selling into the close we may see gold lose the 50. Curious how you play this one in the 24/7 futures market.

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  19. Ver,

    A close below. This session close is at 5:00.

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  20. I had posted this yesterday, but I was expecting it to take 3 days (like last time)...

    so It'll be interesting to see if we return down tomorrow and just bounce off this area ...or worse?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/M9q2R7u2

    Time will tell :)

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  21. Nice Chart Alex

    That might be worth a GLD call gamble.

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  22. I really suggest one not try to pick a bottom here. This was way too large of a one day drop. Something is very wrong.

    The S&P may have another 5-8 days of this. Does anyone really think anything will hang tough under that kind of selling pressure.

    Just be patient and wait for the S&P to bottom or at the very least wait for gold to form a swing.

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  23. Hey fellas,

    No smartphone, at least not one'd trust for trading, but I'm checking in on my laptop during a layover.

    From the action, Gary could very well be correct about the short term. However, I'm not selling anything and now will begin to place buy orders BELOW current prices. From my quick analysis, it looks to me that metals are getting hit more from systemic worries (futures/options/derivatives are no longer safe after MF global, but still, metals are the only place to be IMO.

    Assuming I get some fills (buys) over the next few days, I can live with any downside from here. One must ask themselves how safe their fiat currency is, now that everything is coming apart one event at a time. The reason to own miners longer term remains intact, and if fact this bolsters the argument. It won't be long before they're perceived as the only game in town. Only physical and miners, no futures, no GLD, and certainly no double/triple etfs.

    Let's see how it shakes out, but I'm buckled up for the ride and looking to add.

    PS One of my previously placed buy order just executed, with several more not too much below where we stand. A down gap tomorrow ought to fill them, and I will then be at my maximum risk percentage (until I'm up big and can add, keeping overall risk fixed at my max-no raising, but with more shares).

    Take care, trade well! :)

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  24. Jeez, that was a long post. Apologies for not being more clear, but somewhat disheveled with the long travel and all.

    Still haven't reached my destination!

    Before others buy on my actions, keep in mind I'm looking farther out than most here. gary is probably correct about the immediate action, but 'm just sticking with my plan.

    I'll let you know how it works out, and overall I'm not the least frightened to own miners even though a beatin' looks in order. :)

    Good luck.

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  25. Thx for checking in SB. Have a safe trip.

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  26. FWIW GLD on BOW list, not very large but on the list

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  27. I think it was on there yesterday too.

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  28. Comeon Man... can this be the begininngig we've been waiting the whole year so far.. I mean D-beginning...

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  29. Wild day today and indeed smells fishy. I know a movie where someone said that money is the jeloous bi**h that never sleeps..

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  30. Gary,

    I agree, I wouldnt suggest anyone buy today.

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  31. Kyle Bass is a class act. This is a must see interview:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-F_QF1XTXI&feature=player_embedded

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  32. I dont like gold's action at all today.

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  33. I think we should have seen a significant bounce off the 50, We may see some serious downside.

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  34. WW,

    if this is not smell D wave..Europe is collapsing, US is debt all over..China is hardlanding

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  35. Slanted head and shoulders on a Gold daily.

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  36. WOW!

    If SSRI is any indicator as to where mining stocks are going...


    Oh my!

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  37. Yes today started with a lonnnnnnngggg red candle at 4am and about 645 PST. Somebody wanted out

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  38. Take this with a grain of salt, but the ThinkOrSwim Sequential indicator (poor man's DeMark) is showing a perfected DAILY sequential BUY today on the GDXJ!
    Such signals are good for the following 12 trading sessions - so into the first week of December.
    Let's see how this does!

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  39. Have any of you guys considered that the gold bull might be dead? I'm getting nervous and impatient here.

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  40. GLD and miners have BB penetration. So the set for bounce tomorrow? I will hardly buy them ...but againg when you fear the most that's your entry :)

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  41. High 5,

    Agree with you on Kyle Bass inteview. I found it riveting, except for the incessant interruptions by the agressive and hostile BBC interviewer. No wonder the UK is in such trouble ;-). Any idea what his plans are to play the asymmetric hedge on Japan (other than without CDSs)?

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  42. Bull markets don't end with a whimper. The end in an orgy of speculation. That hasn't happened yet for gold.

    We also haven
    't even gotten close to a 1:1 Dow:gold ratio yet.

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  43. Pukey actions in PM sector. Wonder if Gary was right - it was the beginning of the D-wave.

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  44. I know I know Gary. But I have 99% of my net worth in gold and silver and 1% in guns and ammo,which are not cheap here. The political girations are making me paranoid.

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  45. Joseph - if you are a subscriber, you can follow the model portfolio. It manages risk very well, much better than I can do it on my own.

    I would sign up.

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  46. Gary,

    When the biggest perma-bull on the board questions the gold bull, we have a good sentiment indicator! LOL!!

    Could mean PMs are ready to take off...

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  47. They could be ready to take off but wait for the S&P the bottom first.

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  48. Captain,

    I was wondering the same thing. If the interviewer wasn't such a nit wit she would have focused on his Japan strategy.

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  49. silver chart looks like it broke down from a bear flag...breakdown target is in the low 20s

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  50. SLV looks like it will atleast retest that bottom at 27.5

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  51. I think the odds that miners shares get entangled in tax loss selling is increasing. A lot of miners are below the share prices from 11 months ago already.

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  52. Gary,

    What do you think of Ann Barnhardt's reasons for closing her business to clients? I know that's kind of a rhetorical question...but still.

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  53. Captain Morgan,

    Very insightful Investor Letter from Kyle Bass:

    https://docs.google.com/a/creditwritedowns.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&embedded=true&srcid=0B2bjqNteRwUoYzBlNWM5YzEtNjQ1MS00YzhmLWFiYzQtYzEzMDQ2NGZkNjA5&hl=en&authkey=CN3EtPcF&hl=en

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  54. Gary
    Thx for getting us out at the open.

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  55. catbird

    i read the artical and am very upset.
    For one i can see her point. On the other hand if she is going to wait untill she can have complete confidence in gov before she even thinks of opening her doors again. That beggs the question why she ever opened up for bussiness to begin with

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  56. High 5
    Can you just give us the cliffnotes on that Kyle bass.

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  57. High 5 good video,

    Heard about this guy before, very well spoken and sharp. Now how do we short Japan. I'll wait for Gary to add to my gold investments now.

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  58. Haggerty

    Essentially Bass hedged portfolio against housing in 2008 with cds's and profitied. Says only way out for Euro countries is for debt to piigs be written down as loss.

    Japan and then France have worse soveriegn debt problems. How he plays this unkown as interviewer interupted. He says best store value gold and made light of fact reported he has guns. He also made clear long in many areas(what not say) and bets against were hedges.

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  59. Haggerty,

    Read page nine of the letter I linked.

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  60. Reasons the gold secular bull is not dead:
    1. Dow:Gold is way too high, as Gary said. As a corollary, gold trends up when dow goes down. If you think gold bull is dead then you must believe the dow is ready to start a new bull market.
    2. The EW gold count has worked beautifully for me for a decade now, and therefore I have to believe it is correct. Therefore we are in wave 2 of Major 3, with a long way left up.
    3. The last gold bull, which for a number of reasons should be less impressive than this one , saw gold rise 26 times. So far it has risen 7-8 times at peak
    4. Waaayyy too little capital is in gold, something well under 5%. At the end of the bull, this number will be much higher.
    5. Many average people do not know how/where to buy physical gold. Near the end, everyone will know and there will be lines, either literally or on the phone.
    6. Near the end, everyone, including cnbc, will be super excited about gold and say it can only go up forever. Are we there yet?!!!
    7 Fundamentally, it seems obvious to me that when the deflation gets bad the politicians will resort to printing to try to ease the pain. I have trouble seeing how this crisis does not ultimately end in a hyperinflation. There is a reason there have been hundreds of yperinflation but no hyperdeflation like EVER. People never change and it will happen again. I also think that as we have more MF globals literally stealing account money, all faith/trust will be lost and people will go crazy for something that has no counterparty risk.

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  61. Took off gold futures, sitting on the sidelines until I see a clear DCL, today's bottom didn't convince me and no real follow through.

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  62. High 5

    I did watch the video it was the document I couldn't pull up, butI'm guessing it's saying the same thing? TIA

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  63. "dont agree with either of your analysis on CRB or the dollar tho."

    $crb down another 2 1/2% today,, more downside to follow.

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  64. Haggerty,

    Actually the letter is way more informative. Just google 'hayman investor letter 2011'.

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  65. JM,
    The CRB has to break the down trend before we have confirmation of a 3 year cycle low. That hasn't happened yet.

    The dollar also looks like it has put in an intermediate bottom.

    There has always been two scenarios, and I've always thought the next two weeks would tell us which one will play out.

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  66. Kyle Bass is the most articulate and witty hedge fund manager out there but his bearishness on Japan credit has cost him millions so far this year.

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