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Thursday, November 17, 2011

Portfolio change

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

32 comments:

  1. * Have to say Thanks Poly for your update on Friday!

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  2. I didn't buy any GDX (no outperformance and not worth risk or higher taxes) and only have 0.5x silver for a core position.

    I'm not sure how far we drop or to what levels, but I'm pretty sure my entry around the 1681 low is pretty solid and won't get breached unless there is a real meltdown in the metals. And I dont think that will happen - the situation is different and the world had woken up. Or maybe not, we will see.

    Staying 4x+ (mostly gold futures) and will only exit at or near a break of 1681.

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  3. For example, at any moment (or weekend, when these things usually happen) you could see a break in Germany's or ECB's willingness to start printing massively and bailing out Europe. Or even the Fed perhaps (although that is politically unlikely - this time the printing has to come from EU).

    Various media and important people are already screaming "enough already, start printing" basically.

    So I'm reluctant to exit my position to save profit when that profit gives me some stability to hold (in light of a possible launch upwards any moment on such printing news). If I exit to save the profit on this then I have trouble getting back in (especially leveraged - since for me that has to be on pullbacks and a 'we're printing now' announcement doesnt give me that pullback.)

    I'm risking maybe 2% of my net worth (and all existing profit) by holding till 1681 or so. And I'm risking 1% more each time I try to buy as we decline - like buying near low 1700 as I intend to do. But I think the risk/reward is pretty good and will take those losses.

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  4. A break in Germany's or ECB's UNWILLINGNESS to massively print currently....

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  5. Headfake break out of the triangle consolidation on the S&P we go north for a week to trap all the shorts again while the dollar finds it's daily cycle low.....then when when all the shorts have covered we start heading down as the dollar moves up.

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  6. I'm mostly just nervous about the setup in the S&P. A left translated cycle has the potential to get nasty so better to wait for the market to put in it's daily cycle low before any further action.

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  7. H,
    That was my original expectation but it's getting kind of late in the cycle for that now.

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  8. Yea this market is crazy, better to wait for clearer skies.

    Going to Disney for a week tomorrow night....bringing the IPAD, my wife will just have to deal with it.

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  9. The problem with that is that big money is frequently made at the exact times that your feelings make you want to 'step aside'.

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  10. Made my buy on gold futures, but I'm already close to being stopped out of that buy.

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  11. Picked up some HL, SSRI, EXK outta the trash. Let's see what happens.

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  12. Long at 1714.4, let's see what happens.

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  13. GLD now in oversold territory on the 5-day RSI, right in the timing band for a low (day 20), with higher volume and panic selling. We may be seeing a low being put in right here.

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  14. Maybe premature, but it looks like we have a DCL in.

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  15. If the 10sma holds on a 5 min and supports a move higher it will confirm the bottom is in.

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  16. I would suggest not buying anything until the S&P bottoms. There is the potential that the bear is resuming.

    There is no need to try and catch the exact bottom in gold. It hasn't even made a swing yet.

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  17. 56 dollars on gold and 2.55 on Silver in one day C'mon man.

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  18. Well, unfortunately (for me, anyway), Kevin Depew and his DeMark indicators moved to Bloomberg from Minyanville, so no real updates on that front. I have a crappy free version on ThinkOrSwim that never really lined up to what he was seeing. I've been told Depew will resume some DeMark postings when he gets more settled in his Bloomberg digs, but we will see.
    One useful tool for me has been the Mclellan Oscillator also on ThinkOrSwim although I sometimes questions its accuracy as well :) But it showed stocks very overbought on the 10/27 high at 1292. Now, the pendulum has swung the other way, currently at -150 here at 12:09 CST. The day before the 10/04 low, this closed at -163, so I would be very careful being short here. Yep, the world's coming to an end, Euro's going to blow sky high, coal in the stock market's stocking this year, etc., etc. but don't underestimate the power of the powers that be to push this thing up pretty soon.

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  19. Haggerty said...
    56 dollars on gold and 2.55 on Silver in one day C'mon man."

    Is is called financial engineered..

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  20. I would say the bear has certainly resumed the S&P chart has 08' written all over it.

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  21. "coolkevs..

    One useful tool for me has been the Mclellan Oscillator also on ThinkOrSwim"

    Do you need an account on ThinkOrSwim to use it?

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