We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

269 comments:

  1. Finding this DCL has been very harsh, for some reason I don't remember them being this bad during old turkey days.nbut I guess the bull is changing and is becoming a rougher ride.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Seems like a normal DCL to me.

    ReplyDelete
  3. daily cycle low for dollar is due in about week right ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. anybody know when dcl and icl occured in 08. was 5/26/08 a dcl and 7/16/08 an icl.

    ReplyDelete
  5. gary - how much your premium service cost.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Click on the subscribe link on the premium website and you will see the subscription options.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks Gary!

    Learning everyday!

    ReplyDelete
  8. I've augmented my gold position but I just want to point out that the daily cycle downtrend line has not yet been broken. Could see one more puke out.

    ReplyDelete
  9. TZ,

    B's are basically consolidations if you look at the previous ones over the last ten years.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Actually B-waves are the corrective move that follows an A-wave advance. It's the beginning phase of the next C-wave that incorporates an extended consolidation.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Right...Out of A-waves we get a correction and then price basically trades sideways into the beginning of C-waves before price begins to push higher again.

    ReplyDelete
  12. GARY

    i think its been a year or so since you went over the whole abcd waves and what they are.
    you have many new people, so maybe when we have a twiddle your thumb time,you could lay the whole thing out again

    ReplyDelete
  13. The ABCD pattern is explained in the terminology doc for anyone who wants to look it up.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi,

    Could somebody recommend a good company to buy phsycial gold bullion (thinking coins) from in Canada?

    I remmeber this was discussed earlier, but I could not find the thread.

    many thanks

    ReplyDelete
  15. oooo
    i was trying to look through arcives for 2 days for someone. and it was right there

    ReplyDelete
  16. Miyagi-sensei,

    Thanks for not letting me buy Netflix at 110! You are right, maybe bankrupted by 2012!
    How are you BTW? Very quiet at the moment for you, are you digging a basement?

    ReplyDelete
  17. nice island reversal forming in GDX on the daily.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Stoker,

    I bought physical from vbce.ca. Not over the internet, but I bought mine in person

    I cannot comment on any other place. Hope it helps.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Poly,

    You seem to have a different opinion on the current IC. Do you still believe this will be a failed cycle or that this is a good buying opportunity at this DCL?

    Just trying to hear from a couple opinions I respect.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Gary, "normal" DCL?
    Have there been other DCL that have penetrated the 50 DMA or the IT trend line? If not then why would you think this normal?
    This looks more like an IT bottom except that it's not in the timing band.

    ReplyDelete
  21. There have been lots of daily cycle lows that have penetrated the 50.

    You aren't going to be able to quantify cycles with moving averages or virtually any technical tool for that matter. If the market was that easy then every retail trader in the world with charting software would be rich. Most traders go through the "indicator" stage during the early part of their career. Eventually most figure out that you can't make consistent money with indicators alone.

    Some people get stuck in that stage for their entire career.

    My suggestion is to get through that phase as quickly as possible, because once you do you will have a much better chance of making, and more importantly keeping money.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks Gary, I was expecting a different answer and am happy I did not get it.

    I'll stay more focused on cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  23. adding to GDX here. huge amount of buying this morning.

    will add even more if we can get through today without closing that gap.

    ReplyDelete
  24. silver is looking strong, maybe we finally see 37 next month?

    ReplyDelete
  25. Gary,

    Does the recent right translated nature of the dollar imply that it will continue - and is this the type of action that would drive gold into its yearly cycle low?

    I'm asking b/c the last DC didn't behave as bullish as you were expecting (I believe) and was wondering if that will continue when the dollar finds its DCL. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  26. So what is the general view over here about the PMs? A great buying opportunity now or is there still a high probability of more downside to come?

    ReplyDelete
  27. GARY - has the puppy grown since you posted the picture last time? I am living vicariously through other dog owners.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Gary,

    Throughout this entire C-wave gold only lost the 50dma during intermediate declines. It actually acted as support during every daily cycle...just saying.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Now when I think of it the stock and gold DCL cohere we should get a really good move high on the miners

    ReplyDelete
  30. Ten Year

    My view is that Miners bottomed yesterday. Gold was down $50 and silver over a buck, but Miners put in a reversal.

    I was using a few charts yesterday (this one for GDX) as a Tech Analysis guide along with the fact that cycle timing is due.


    http://www.screencast.com/t/RdsfA35nT

    ReplyDelete
  31. Alex,
    The two lines of the triangle, it looks like they are drawn from connecting two daily cycle lows and two daily cycle tops?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Gary,

    Actually, I cant find one daily cycle (apart from moves into intermediate declines) in any of the C-wave's over the last 10 years that lost the 50dma....please correct me if im wrong.

    Think its a legitimate concern to say the least.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Intelliblue2000

    HMM, not on purpose :)

    W W

    You say legitimate concern , because you think it indicates more weakness?
    Or something else on your mind? thx

    ReplyDelete
  34. Just want to point out a couple of things....gold is now back in this C-wave's channel (brokeout to make the 1923 high and again to make the recent 1804 high), the lower trendline is at around $1545-50.

    ReplyDelete
  35. alex
    any thoughts on the dollar? wish it would roll over

    ReplyDelete
  36. Alex,

    I say legitimate concern because like I said gold only loses the 50 during intermediate declines. I see only one time during this C-wave that gold dipped below it then shortly reclaimed and crawled it and then lost it again and continued down into an intermediate decline...and that just happened to be after the parabolic type move that topped on 12/3/09.

    ReplyDelete
  37. WW - are you thinking that perhaps this current gold daily cycle low is an intermediate cycle low? And the previous intermediate cycle low is actually just part of the current daily cycle low?

    ReplyDelete
  38. I actually just found a daily cycle during this C-wave where gold dipped below the 50dma a couple times before heading higher... was the 2/8/10 to 3/24/10daily cycle - the DC out of the Intermediate low from that 12/3/09 parabolic top.

    ReplyDelete
  39. ok so if i would have waited another 2 min i would have got my answer

    ReplyDelete
  40. WW,

    The 50 dma was lost in Dec of 09. However that was part of a decline that I personally label as a blow-off drop, so what Gary calls a D-Wave.

    Your reference to losing the 50dma is interesting, it's a "marker" found common in all of these blow-off and D-wave drops. more evidence of a failed daily gold cycle to come here. Caution needed.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Intelliblue,

    If gold does happen to retrace to the lower trendline I mentioned at 1550ish it would be the next daily cycle that fails, the intermediate cycle would still be intact. We seen this happen in previous D-waves.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Jeff

    (Sorry took so long, needed to draw a chart)

    I think the dollar is close to rolling over. If I use the UUP (it's not exact , I guess, but I've always used it as a guide and it is a good guide).The Dollar shows the same pattern anyways & looks weakening I.M.H.O..

    http://www.screencast.com/t/GssZUpd5hw

    ReplyDelete
  43. Some were concerned about "MINERS" weakening intraday...some even went 'red'

    So far ,on a 3 day /5 minute chart...I see that

    1) they were bought back yesterday afternoon (so got a little overbought on short term charts stochastically).

    2) Today they gap up and get more overbought, so there is some profit taking and they drift down to fill all or part of the gaps.
    Stochastics now "unwound"

    3) volume down is light compared to the volume up...so I'm thinking (hoping) it reverses later today .Buyers should come back in and BUY I.M.O.

    ReplyDelete
  44. thanks alex

    you guys got me worried on the gold now.
    i sooo cant take a hit right now
    ( i got corzined)

    ReplyDelete
  45. This is the dollars typical action before moving higher, consolidates sideways and then moves higher.

    ReplyDelete
  46. WW,
    I respectfully disagree. When I look at past dollar rallies I see the dollar sucking right up to (and above) the upper Bollinger Band and riding the band higher. Currently the dollar is struggling to get near the upper band. I think the dollar may even be rolling over as I type. Even if true, I don't expect it to happen all at once. We could still see more chop first. Just MO.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Good points Alex. I'm leaning on the notion that the PMs will at least test their previous highs (if worst case being that their tops are in).

    ReplyDelete
  48. that was my next question.
    so if we have a failed daily cycle, how may days would/could/should it rally before failing ? 6? 8?

    ReplyDelete
  49. IMO gold had no business coming back into this channel now, had the 50dma held it would have dipped its toe back in and thats about it. I believe the bear market has resumed and its going to be making new lows, which concerns me even more with gold's next move. If we get a decent bounce in the market of course we will get a decent bounce out of this daily cycle low in gold, but if the bear quickly continues its going to pressure gold to continue lower...like Poly said, "caution needed" to say the least.

    ReplyDelete
  50. The dollar looks weak to me. Not really like it's consolidating for a surge higher.

    Just my opinion .If it at least dropped to the 20sma or 50sma for a bit, the wedge pattern would be eliminated.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Danno,

    Pull up a chart of $DXY and take a look:

    8/11/08 to 8/28/08...10/6/08 to 10/15/08....12/22/08 to 12/31/08

    Just a few as an example. Are you still looking at a UUP chart?

    ReplyDelete
  52. The dollar is back in positive territory on the True Strength Index also.

    ReplyDelete
  53. WW,
    I will say that I agree with you that PMs are by no means out of the woods. I hate the way the HUI looks. What I am expecting here is a fairly short term drop by the dollar, lasting into mid to late December. This would coincide with a decent rally attempt by PMs I'm guessing. But after that...

    I would have to reevaluate when the time comes of course, but from this distance in time I think the dollar could rock & roll.

    ReplyDelete
  54. I watch DXY after hours and both DXY and UUP during the day.

    ReplyDelete
  55. love it, seems like this decline has effectively shaken everyone off for good.

    ReplyDelete
  56. gold is telling us , UUP is going down..

    ReplyDelete
  57. Gary,
    One thing I don’t quite understand about your outlook is that as you have previously stated, you believe (and I agree) that we are on the precipice of entering the next leg down in the bear market. With that said, Gold has shown to trade as almost a second derivative of the S&P500. How can you believe that the Gold D-wave is over if the drop in equities is only just beginning? It’s a real possibility that any day now, we may wake up to an escalation of the euro crisis and a full on European bank run. I think if that happens the Dow falls close to +1000pts, possibly on a single day. What happens to Gold in that scenario is anyone’s guess, but the action as of late would suggest it will be crushed as well. To me it seems like we a grabbing nickels in front a bulldozer here.

    ReplyDelete
  58. The dollar has been looking weak to me too. Like someone said, with all that's happened in Europe the dollar move has been pretty lame.

    I've also been assuming that Bernanke would devalue the dollar by helping Europe somehow. Looks like Zerohedge just put up a story on that.

    ReplyDelete
  59. ok so i wish i knew how to put my futures chart up but i dont.
    the 4 hr tsi has broken a nice trend line to the upside and crossed over the 0 line. we are in a window for the dcl . dollar is due to top. im in and going to go do something else. I think all is good going long here.

    ReplyDelete
  60. and alexs riseing wedge chart was good to.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Im going to take off my Gold futures here, lock in some profits and wait to see a clean break back above the 50dma to re enter. Would just like to make sure today is not just a backtest of the 50.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Like I have said before there are always reasons to suspect every rally. Apparently this one is the move back below the 50 DMA.

    However as I have pointed out before other than the eight year cycle low in 08 there has never been a time where the Blees rating hit a 90+ reading and then traded back below that level.

    I think it's very unlikely gold will have a failed intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I also sold gold (DGP) position for a nice one day profit. Keeping 35% portfolio GDX position (although may reduce exposure by 1/3 by the close, leaving about 20% position).

    ReplyDelete
  64. I think this rally for GDX stops between 58.50 and 59 and turns back down for at least a test of the lows. This coincides with a down-sloping 50 period MA on a 60min chart.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Needless to say I attach a lot more significance to the COT Blees rating than I do to the 50 DMA.

    The Blees rating is a sign that big money. money that knows what it's doing, is finding value at a certain level. These kind of traders aren't easily knocked out of their positions. So the market is unlikely to trade below those levels.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Gary,

    Like I said before, its not the Intermediate cycle that concerns me atleast.


    "If gold does happen to retrace to the lower trendline I mentioned at 1550ish it would be the next daily cycle that fails, the intermediate cycle would still be intact. We seen this happen in previous D-waves."

    ReplyDelete
  67. WW, great chance DCL is in for gold. At day 22, it came smack on the outer timing band (15-22)on strong volume and a final puke out that turned into a head fake.

    90% of all cycles bottom by the last day of the timing band. Pukeout like events very deep in the timing band hold up being DCL's with extremely high probability.

    The time to be really cautious will be at the TOP of the half daily cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  68. A failed daily cycle this early would signal a failed and left translated intermediate cycle also. Since the last intermediate cycle was short there's a good chance this one will be long.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Poly,

    Said yesterday that I thought the DCL was in and put the futures back on.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Poly,

    Thats what im concerned about as I mentioned, the next daily cycle. Although I do think the DCL is in I just took off my futures here because I would like to avoid a further pullback if the market continues to crap tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Gary,

    In previous D-waves we had failed daily's that didnt result in failed IC's I believe....please correct me if im wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Yes but a failed daily cycle invariable initiates an intermediate decline. Since gold is only on week 8 and so far it has topped on week 6 that would imply a left translated intermediate cycle and those usually go below the prior cycle low.

    Like I said last week one is going to have to enter when they are least confident and sell when they are most confident at this point in the game. Chasing isn't going to be a very productive strategy because we are unlikely to get any sustained rallies for a while.

    So once one enters close to a daily cycle low they probably need to hold on for a couple of weeks before taking profits. Selling and then being forced to chase is going to drastically reduce profit potential in this kind of market.

    ReplyDelete
  73. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  74. BoW #s are really starting to build. I think we probably go the bottom of the daily cycle today.

    ReplyDelete
  75. My favorite, and most reliable, indicator, is Gary. The Gary Indicator says the bottom is in, and it's by far the most reliable indicator I've got.

    I'm in.

    ReplyDelete
  76. gary

    bow? on the snp, gold ? everything?

    ReplyDelete
  77. Jeff,

    S&P... pretty big actually...
    My little 2cts... Today Dax down 1.5 %, but Bund 10Y as well....So maybe turning points, sell Govies, Buy Stocks for year end??

    ReplyDelete
  78. I am learning, but is it true that if we touch 2230 on the Nasdaq, we have a swing high?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Lets keep in mind...the stock market is in a left translated cycle, the dollar in a right.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Don't think this hammer on PMs is the prettiest close we could get

    ReplyDelete
  81. Sentiment reading on SMT bodes well for a break above $2000.00

    ReplyDelete
  82. I think low was yesterday and I missed it (more on that later).

    I've chased and am in at 1x on gold futures and planning some entries to increase when I can find good positioning.

    There is also a chance the gold low is NOT in and I'm prepared for that too. I think gary's idea of using yesterday's low as a stop is good and it isn't too much of a loss.

    Remember that this may be a big holiday week in the US, but asia and the EU don't care about turkey day and the EU is still falling apart. So this might get interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  83. If the low isn't in and we go lower then look for 1620-30. Poly has had some work/comments in this area as well and knows that down action could still be ahead.

    Nevertheless it is worth a few % to go long here with belief in a bottom yesterday. You never know anything for certain, but simply just decide when it is a good time to put money on the table. This looks pretty good.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Ver, yes my system did go to a sell.The buy is now at 1765 and moving down.

    ReplyDelete
  85. why is the USD on juice in AH...any news??? AH Market's down 150 points

    ReplyDelete
  86. TZ, I think your comments there are spot on. I'm long ten GC at the moment with a stop at yesterday's low.

    Gary, looks like you were also right with your call of gold bottoming before stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Troll,

    I think it is due to poor manufacturing data out of China.

    ReplyDelete
  88. The $ remalns in a rising wedge---just maybe breaks out to downside? or maybe $ and gold rise to gether. by now should realize these numbers we see now often have no relationship to what we see in the morning.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Harry,

    The best way (I think) to measure your position is to relate it to your net worth (or your liquid investments).

    You said 10 gc contracts;
    That is $170k each NOTATIONAL value (each contract controls 100ozs gold).

    If you had $1mil in net worth, then you would be 1.7x by the way I talk and discuss.

    This is easily correlatable among anybody here regardless of money. Gary is, for example, is invested 0.75x in the portfolio (25% or .25x of his accounts value is cash).

    1x is special cause it means fully invested, but also means that you can't technically go below zero or get a margin call on your position.

    2x would blow out if a security dropped 50%, etc.

    Just a few comments on how I discuss positions.

    ReplyDelete
  90. You would be 1.7x meaning that with a net worth of 1 million you would be holding 1.7million in gold. You would almost be leveraged 2x therefore.

    With almost all accounts you can NOT discuss how 'invested' you are by mentioning how much 'cash' you have because many investments don't require any cash (per se) or require much less cash than the value they represent.

    To hold your 10 gc contracts, you have to have about $120k in margin (cash) but it never really leaves your account - just get's locked up. But is still there. The cash line on the screen never goes to zero.

    So that is why I total up various positions vs net worth and use 1x, 2x, 0.5x, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  91. HARRY,

    Note that gary's stop (the low of monday) is rather far down for 10gc contracts. I personally am not doing that, I'm looking at tighter stops higher up (with a corresponding risk of getting hit).

    Make sure you did the math on those 10 gc and are both ABLE and **WILLING** to accept that full loss.

    You may find that if we head towards that point you change your mind rapidly.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Clearly, however, (as per my earlier comment) I have no idea how much 10gc represents to you. And none of this is supposed to be financial advice.

    I recall you mentioned you were starting at this and I suspect that 10gc is large. Maybe you aren't and may it isn't (and maybe I have no idea about the things I say. Buyer beware).

    Good luck with things.

    ReplyDelete
  93. gold up 0.45%...silver down 1.4% - big divergence between gold and silver

    tomorrow should be interesting again...

    ReplyDelete
  94. I started on this blog (and subscriber) about a year ago.

    One of my earlier posts I will repeat now (with new data):

    For the last TWO thanksgiving FRIDAYS (the Comex is open all week except for thurs afternoon to thurs evening), the price of gold has taken a rather substantial hit between approx 1am-9am friday morning (eastern time). Give or take.

    It did not happen three years ago. Going back further is a tossup, but the 'new age' of crisis, debt default, and 'gold attack' has been since 2008/9.

    I'm long now, but I'm worried about this fri as well for same reasons. This concern is increased because the rollover of the dec contract is approx tues of next week. The guys in charge don't want longs to take delivery and any they can squeeze out with a late night low volume hit on friday is just more icing on the cake.

    For what it is worth.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Out my 1x gold futures. I don't want a large stop here and I suspect a better entry during the holiday period as I have already indicated.

    It is too tempting for those guys to not push this down sometime in the next three days for a retest of the low. I could be wrong, but I'm willing to bet on it as pretty good odds. I'll be able to get higher leverage anyway if so.

    ReplyDelete
  96. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG1NrQYXjLU

    On the trading floors of Tokyo,
    Or down in London City to go, go
    With Gary's blog selection
    And LCD's reflection
    I'm typing to myself

    Oh oh oh-oh

    :-)

    ReplyDelete
  97. Here are some visuals of the turkey day smackdown:

    http://www.kitco.com/hist_charts/gold/24_hours/2010/au11292010.gif

    http://www.kitco.com/hist_charts/gold/24_hours/2009/au11302009.gif

    I'll be surprised if it happens for a third year in a row.

    ReplyDelete
  98. TZ, thanks for your thoughts on position sizing. When trading futures I always have a stop and calculate my risk off of that in dollar terms. For example, if I were to add another contract at 1697 with a stop at 1667, my 'risk' would be $3000 ($30 x 100oz). That's how I think of it.

    Also interesting Thanksgiving conspiracy theory ;) My plan is to lighten up tomorrow and only hold a contract or two Thu-Sun. I'm more concerned about something crazy happening in Europe over the holiday.

    ReplyDelete
  99. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Brutus,
    Over the last year most subs did over 100%.

    Keep in mind this is unleveraged and never investing more than 75% of capital. Every single one of those hedge funds is using lots of leverage to reach those kind of numbers. On a risk adjusted basis. They aren't even close.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Gary

    hopeing / looking for a turn on the dollar today, but it could rally another 5 days ?

    ReplyDelete
  102. Ask WW. It looks like his guess was the best this time.

    ReplyDelete
  103. The market hasn't even opened yet, much less closed. Does someone have a crystal ball I don't know about?

    ReplyDelete
  104. I'm just annoyed. Yeah, it is still far too soon to say any kind of sea change has occurred.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Plus it's the holiday, low volume, medium money guy can move the market week.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Gold holding up well, and we are another day further in the timing band for our swings.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Looks like the market will be opening lower today...if history is any indication, and I believe it has proven to be a very effective one because human nature simply doesn't change, the market will put in a reversal candle today and bounce for 3-7 days, as the dollar dips into it's DCL, before the market rolls over again and takes out the Oct 4th low. The global economy is running out of steam, Europe's fuse is lit, the US is suffocating in debt and gasping for air, and for our troubles we get an irrational bear market rally that couldn't even give us the damn curteousy of being right translated because it couldn't insanely top quick enough so that it could get on with the bleeding asap.. The first decent bear market rallies had the decency of being right translated, atleast there was some sanity in their rise to fame and fortune!! At this point it looks like my friend Gary couldnt have been more right in saying, we may be about to witness the worst that human history has to offer. But if the insanity resumes we will watch Ben kick this market in Arse and send it to new highs in short order, but right now it looks unlikely that he is ready to stop the blood and abort the dollar. Makes me sick.

    ReplyDelete
  108. It is not good indeed...And now, nobody wants the German 10Y as well! Too funny to witness as a 1/2 french person like me! Maybe they are finally going to let the ECB backstop the run on the peripherical bonds!!

    ReplyDelete
  109. Danno,

    I leave the guessing to you my friend, I just go by what I see and what my teachers Gary and Poly taught me :)

    ReplyDelete
  110. Sophia,

    Could it not be that they rather buy PIIGs bond, which has a higher interest if they believe europe will be saved?

    ReplyDelete
  111. Despite the "failed" German bond auction the DAX is just barely negative.

    ReplyDelete
  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Gary,

    I agree entirely with you...OVERDONE...so I sold Bunds 2 days ago and waiting for the next 20bps higher shot...

    ReplyDelete
  114. ND.

    I think that it is overdone...2 options: either the Europeans get their act together and the yield on the 10Y German paper is too low... Or, the Euro explodes and the Germans are in the same mess as the rest of Europe, higher yields...And wait for the US turnm, it is going to be fun to watch!!

    ReplyDelete
  115. sophia
    do you mean the us dollar turn?

    ReplyDelete
  116. DANNO

    As for the Dollar-

    Yesterday I was looking at this, and nothing has changed...Not even if it reaches .79 or .795 I'm usually looking ahead short to medium term, but more than a 1 day trade : ]

    http://www.screencast.com/t/fXcKznSS8zx

    ReplyDelete
  117. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Alex,
    I think that screen shot may be blank.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Jeff,

    Have a look into this

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

    With the Super Comitee joke and the lack of will of the US politicians, it looks like a deja-vu situation....Won't take long to have the Chinese and the Japanese a bit pissed off...

    ReplyDelete
  120. It was always my theory that we would see the bottom today.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Gary,

    too bad that we are living so far away from you because I would have paid you a visit with a nice chocolate cake!!

    ReplyDelete
  122. Gary,

    Today as in day 36 of the DC, why today?

    ReplyDelete
  123. gold barely down...

    silver gives it all up in one day...wow

    ReplyDelete
  124. Blogger Danno said...

    Alex,
    I think that screen shot may be blank.

    November 23, 2011 6:16 AM

    You mean you couldnt see the chart? I tried it and got it. try this if thats what you meant.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/fXcKznSS8zx

    ReplyDelete
  125. All major U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday November 24, for the Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday November 25, major U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 pm ET. The Extended Hours session will be available from 1 - 4 p.m. ET.

    ReplyDelete
  126. WW,
    Because the Super committee decision was due today.

    ReplyDelete
  127. we cant make any money if these bs selloffs in silver continue. Just when you think you made a good trade it turns against you.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Sophia,
    Chocolate cake is my favorite and my birthday is Sunday.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Gary,

    Oh yeah remember that, thought there might have been another reason.

    ReplyDelete
  130. WW,

    How did you cone that conclusion? That the bottom is in?

    ReplyDelete
  131. oh my!
    will send you email later...going to see kids play tennis but will definitely send you something!

    ReplyDelete
  132. Sophia,

    I bet that I like chocolate cake better than Gary, especially since I cant eat it anymore!

    ReplyDelete
  133. Gary

    Power lifters eat cake? Must be For the eggs.

    :]

    ReplyDelete
  134. Alex,
    I'll try it later on a different pc. Firewall problems I think. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Gary - I always thought weight lifters have strict diets. Only protein and I don't know what else.

    Happy Birthday!

    ReplyDelete
  136. He said it was for his birthday! Leave Gary alone!

    ReplyDelete
  137. Dan,

    Was watching a lower trendline in the /es that was holding tight.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Just observing that a huge H&S is forming on gold on the 4 hour, target approx 1600. I know, I know....just putting it out there.

    ReplyDelete
  139. /es is testing lows now, see if it holds.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Gold looks like it is backtesting the daily cycle downtrend line...

    ReplyDelete
  141. 3x long gold futures here.. Just bought.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Covered remaining market shorts, long SPX now.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Yoo Hoo, Sophia!
    French Silk Pie here :)

    ReplyDelete
  144. Veronica,

    Earlier this month you posted that your dollar system went to a buy. Are you still in that trade? Also, have your hold times for your dollar system trades been in line with Gary’s cycle counts for the dollar?

    Thanks for all of your posts!

    ReplyDelete
  145. 86!

    Where you been wilderbeast...I thought you got beat down by an angry beaver's wife.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Good risk/reward possibilities here, but I just cant shake the possible event/gap risk. Especially with this weeks low volume and big headline risk.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Razvan said...
    we cant make any money if these bs selloffs in silver continue. Just when you think you made a good trade it turns against you"

    Agree, this is no market for heroes

    ReplyDelete
  148. This is when you buy fella's, in a see of red and scared to death.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Decided to avoid the gap risk, by just buying ATM options that cost as much as id care to risk at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Slow burn on VIX for a month or more. High levels but still no indication of a fear/capitulation selling spike on stocks. Interesting to say the least.

    ReplyDelete
  151. It is coming, I promise you. But from what levels and what sort of economic chaos if we are already here and no dice yet?

    ReplyDelete
  152. Gold must be sniffing out an upcoming drop by the dollar (day 19) into it's daily cycle low, as despite a large move by the dollar, the gold price has held up well.

    ReplyDelete
  153. TZ,

    I was looking at the NYSE Equity put/call ratio the other day and noticed what looked to be a lot of complacency in sentiment, normally with this sharp move lower we've had over the last week you would see a big spike in Puts versus Calls and we are not seeing that yet.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Russell,

    Gold must be smarter than stocks then....

    ReplyDelete
  155. the only thing its sniffed so far is a $30 loss in its value

    ReplyDelete
  156. For those interested, very effective and free market sentiment indicator.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21969503220

    ReplyDelete
  157. "On practical terms, how can the government cover the losses of AIG and the rest of the Wall Street idiots and not cover this situation. AIG should have known what it was doing and it was their own fault they lost what they did -- AIG and Fannie and Freddie deserved what they got. But MF Global customers were innocent and got rammed by the system, including the CFTC.
    The legitimacy of U.S marketplaces is at risk here. If a customer cannot trust his money in a seg account in futures, then nothing can be trusted at the end of the day.
    I will tell you what I really think. I believe the current adminsitration views speculation as evil -- and they are not going to rescue speculators. Traders are going to be left in the wind to blow because after all -- int he minds of the White House BOGIs -- if a person puts his or her money in the futures market they deserve to lose it."


    Peter Brandt

    http://peterlbrandt.com/mf-global-proof-that-the-u-s-government-is-not-able-or-willing-to-protect-investors/

    ReplyDelete
  158. When our currency is going up, someone's is going down. Seems like the Euro's might start covering their assets by purchasing gold. I was slightly tongue in cheek when giving gold insight into cycle theory, but if it was all about the USdx, gold should be lower by a lot more.

    ReplyDelete
  159. WW, buy when there is blood :) I've doubled down too.

    ReplyDelete
  160. I don't feel like doing the math right now but if this was the upward resolution of a Rising Wedge (UUP) or a Pennant ($USD) it could peak right around the previous high, which could result in the formation of a double top.

    If UUP closes above the upper trend line of the Rising Wedge today (which I'm sure it will) that is actually the signal to take a long position. However, the ride could be short.

    ReplyDelete
  161. I wouldn't put too much faith in chart patterns this late in a daily cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Upped closer to 4x, but moved some stops up too.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Strat81,

    Try this one:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p03641377483

    ReplyDelete
  164. Gary, I don't, either. (I'm not trading on it. )

    ReplyDelete
  165. Gold is showing its muscles...

    ReplyDelete
  166. W2,
    Been having internet troubles, on and off, techs been here 3x in the last week. That`s a grey hair maker and I don`t need anymore!! Lots of other stuff going. Have to get out to the woods. Gary is right, it`s amazing how much less stress there is just walking away from this whole thing for a bit. Entered my last AGQ this morning at 56.47. Hope everyone here has a Great Thanksgiving. Most of us have much to be thankful for :)

    ReplyDelete
  167. Bought SLV and DGP a bit before the dip today. 50% portfolio invested. Eyes wide shut...

    ReplyDelete
  168. German Bund is getting a beating in the backyard...Very interesting development...I think that might trigger an resolution of the European endless discussions....

    ReplyDelete
  169. what is the chance AGQ goes to 30?

    weekly chart:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58983180090

    ReplyDelete
  170. "The United States now has a system in which the Treasury runs huge deficits and sells bonds to keep from going broke. The Fed prints money to buy those bonds and loses money owning them. Then the Treasury takes IOUs back from the Fed to keep the Fed from going broke. This arrangement resembles two drunks leaning on each other so neither one falls down. Today, with its 50-to-1 leverage and investment in volatile securities, the Fed looks more like a poorly run hedge fund than a central bank."

    "Now as losses on future bond sales arise, the Fed does not reduce capital, as would normally occur, instead they increase the amount of the IOU to the Treasury. In effect, the Fed is issuing private IOUs to the Treasury and using the cash to avoid appearing insolvent. As long as the Fed can keep issuing these IOUs, its capital will not be wiped out by losses on its bonds. Corporate executives who played these kinds of accounting games would be sent to jail. Americans might be outraged to know that the Treasury is a public institution while the Fed is privately owned by banks, so this accounting sham is another example of bilking the taxpayers to enrich the banks."

    James Rickards

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/23_Jim_Rickards_-_Who_Will_Bail_Out_the_Fed_%26_How_High_for_Gold.html

    ReplyDelete
  171. DANNO

    Ur welcome--I think it's done.

    Sidepoint: This was slightly interesting
    today

    SOL, YGE, JKS, SOL, LDK

    (Solars)

    ReplyDelete
  172. High5,

    very interesting indeed...seems a bit too simplistic to be completely true but I agree that it is dodgy...
    Today, by the way, the markets are down a lot and the Treasuries cannot make it up for long...Exactly what happened on the German market since last week....

    ReplyDelete
  173. Happy Thanksgiving all SMTers!
    Enjoy some time away from the Kitco charts. Although we have a lot to criticize in our current political, economic and social situations, we have much more for which to be thankful. Visit Haiti and you'll be thankful just for clean running water and all the other things we take for granted.
    Safe travels and enjoy.
    Russell

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.