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Sunday, November 6, 2011

NEW INTERMEDIATE CYCLE

Gold has now confirmed that an intermediate bottom was set on September 26. The double bottom at $1600 is a powerful basing pattern that should generate a test of the $2000 level by sometime in December.

For reasons covered in the nightly reports I don't really expect gold to push much above the $2000 level during this particular intermediate cycle.

Also for reasons discussed in the nightly reports I think the mining stocks, which have been unloved for the last year, are probably going to be the recipients of most of the hot money during this intermediate cycle. Both silver and gold have already generated parabolic, or semi parabolic moves. I think it's time for a big rally in the mining stocks over the next four or five months.

208 comments:

  1. Weak report.

    Gary is clueless atm.

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  2. clueless?
    I makeing good money. model portfolio is up over 17 % and this last entry had 0 drawdown.
    whatcha got that is better?

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  3. Gary.

    What of the dollar and stocks here looking out a couple weeks?

    Gold sure....but how bout the co relations etc..?

    Tough to see it these last few days etc..and me trading currencies only......still hard to find solid direction here.

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  4. Jeff the Flea, It seems RICK is the clueless one,lol

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  5. I suspect Rick is probably Basil and dips**t in disguise.

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  6. Trolls must be either bored or destroyed.

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  7. Blog,
    Yes there is too much manipulation in the currency markets right now. The current intermediate cycle is still ambiguous. The stock market may or may not be caught in the next leg down in the secular bear depending on if Ben can turn the dollar back down so soon after a major three year cycle low.

    The gold cycles are clear and the secular bull is intact. That is the sector with the greatest odds of successful trades.

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  8. 100% Gary - its a real meat grinder out there currency wise...although, this all being so 'interlinked' - we need to see some resolve here soon.

    I find it hard to imagine the dollar turning backward this early in the 3 year cycle turnover - but as of last few days/week - its been a real tough call....struggling at 200 sma etc....EU issues etc....

    So.....my take would be dollar up stocks down - but damn.......not makin t easy.

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  9. That hanging man candle is looking good to me. You can see it across all markets, not just gold. Also, sentiment is very bullish, so it seems everything set up and ready to go...

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  10. Gold’s behavior has obviously changed. We seen an intermediate cycle bottom early in July that launched gold 300+ points over the previous high and stretch 30+% over the 200sma…gold then retraced back to the 200sma, which I believe was partially a panicked selloff. In the same session that gold retraced to the 200sma it also reclaimed the 150sma and closed well above it. We then saw it pullback to the 150sma again to put in a DCL before rocketing over $100 in 5 days (unseen out of a DCL or ICL). If you look at the previous IC that topped at $1577, gold had a panicked selloff to $1462 but then put in a final IC higher low at $1478 (off the top of my head but think my numbers are correct). I believe we saw the same action in this last IC that topped at $1923 - panicked low, then final IC higher low. With that said, I’m treating this Daily Cycle as the first (not the second) of a new Intermediate Cycle, that would put the last IC at a normal duration and not a shortened 13 week IC, and gold currently on week 2 of a new Intermediate Cycle. Time will tell.

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  11. Actually sentiment on gold is still extremely depressed. It's currently at levels that have marked almost all prior bottoms even after rallying for two weeks.

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  12. M,
    You have been hanging on to your shorts for a while now. What is your signal to cut your losses and move on?

    If one was short miners they have taken almost a 20% beating just over the last two and a half weeks. 10% if one was holding shorts on gold.

    Like I always say never, never, never short a bull market. That doesn't mean one has to go long if they think there is further downside, just don't expose yourself to getting kicked in the teeth if the bull surprises to the upside, which is what bulls tend to do more often than not.

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  13. @Gary

    I have taken 2 initial positions in TZA. My average cost is about $31. My stop loss is $26.

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  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  15. We are just about due for a major PM day, something like miners up 10% in a day, and silver up 5% or so...

    So scary to buy into that one waits for a pull back. Also a move that traders will sell into, only to buy their shares back at even higher prices.

    I figure that is the best way Da boys can steal you shares at this point...

    Of course it is Sunday, so just speaking out loud...no backing with data to these thoughts, just a hunch.

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  16. G, warren bevan said in his weekend newsletter to expect a significant drop in gold tomorrow on this news,any thoughts?


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-goes-margin-defcon-1-makes-maintenance-margin-equal-initial-everything

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  17. Warren didn't bother to check Zero hedges jump the gun conspiracy reporting. Margins are actually being lowered so as to not roil the markets as MF global clients accounts are transfered.

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  18. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-issues-clarification-margins-usher-more-risk-less-liquidity-mf-aftermath

    Already been retracted. ZH was WRONG.


    The OPPOSITE was true,LOWERING margin. LOL. :)

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  19. it'll be REALLY interesting when ZH is ever right about something, analysis-wise.

    fear sells i guess.

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. I cannot believe ZH can even twist the news of lowering initial margin requirements "temporarily" for the MF Global situation as "risky".

    Obviously, the margin requirements will be restored back to normal after the MF Global bankruptcy event is over, and we do not know when will the margin requirement be restored. So ZH is assuming tons of people will use this opportunity to bet huge without knowing when the margin requirement will be restored? and then those traders wake up one day to see that they get huge margin calls because the margin requirement is restored? Who in the right mind would do this???? My guess is only inexperienced and small traders would make such mistakes, but they deserve to blow up their accounts if they really do this.

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  22. I thought this was interesting so far, so I posted this last night in the last thread.

    Pull these 2 charts up side by side...colored arrows are Mine

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MVlq6PkA3sP

    http://www.screencast.com/t/1r3Vu7fHJj

    so in summary...

    Yellow-Yellow ARROW happened

    Blue-Blue ARROW happened

    Purple ARROW shake out Next?
    Green ARROW surge follows?

    I am not saying that I think this WILL or WILL NOT happen, but it's been fun watching so far...also a great buying opportunity if it did and one was prepared.

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  23. Alex,

    Thanks for your charts, always very interesting...How can I build charts like that? Do I need a subscription to a chart company?

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  24. Alex,
    So you are expecting another small drop in silver by your charts before it shoots back up?

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  25. Gary, is there any cycle chance at all for $GOLD to fall below $1600, in an EW wave C down?

    As you know, in EW, for ABC corrective waves, if wave A is from Sept's $1923 to $1535 (or call it $1600), then wave B from there up to last Thurs' 1769, if wave B ends here, a potential wave C would be down, call it to the $1300's if wave C is symmetric/equal to wave A.

    So, I'm just wondering, if in the VERY off-chance that $GOLD fell here, if it DID, is there any cycle scenario that would describe that?

    Thanks.

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  26. FYI I'm a subscriber and I agree w/Gary that gold has broken out and is going higher.

    I'm just trying to exorcise the last bit of EW in my brain here is all. ;-)

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  27. Bill,
    Very unlikely. We have a confirmed intermediate bottom. Those should not get violated until the next 8 year cycle low and that isn't due until 2016.

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  28. FWIW the fact that EW doesn't incorporate any kind of timing band for a move makes it virtually worthless in real time.

    I wouldn't waste anymore time or capital with EW. Pretty much everyone I know who has tried to use it has lost money.

    Precther's long term record is one of the worst in the industry although granted he's more interested in selling subscriptions with shock and awe marketing tactics than actually making anyone any money.

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  29. St. Deluise said...

    "/dx is such a wonky, illiquid vehicle"

    That is one of the most uninformed comments I have ever read on this (or any other) site. DXY (the underlying that /dx settles to) consists of 57.6% EUR/USD and 13.6% USD/JPY. Those are probably the two most liquid instruments on the entire planet, each trading hundreds of billions of dollars worth every day. So /dx trades a little less (about 2.5 billion USD worth a day). It tracks DXY perfectly - otherwise there are risk free profits to be made by buying the futures and selling the currencies (or vice-versa).
    As a comparison, GE, one of the largest market cap companies in the world, trades about 1 billion USD a day (and I don't hear anyone calling it illiquid).

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  30. OK, thanks.

    Moooooving forward now.

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  31. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54704736644

    Good support for gold between 1727 and 1730 with the 10, 50, and 75 day moving averages all coming together. Trying to avoid the daily wiggles but will add if we get a pullback to 1730. Appears to be bullish with the 50 day being the last of these moving averages to have finally turned up.

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  32. AT EASE

    Thats what that chart implies...BUT...I do not necessarily believe it will happen. I just have been following it for the Month of Oct and it's interesting that It has so far.

    Circumstances here and now may be different as far as Blees, COT, Cycle timing, etc ...so that would impact future direction...I would imagine.

    But I am watching, and thought I'd share that so others could see if it continues too.

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  33. SOPHIA

    You can go to www.stockcharts.com as a non-member and pull up a chart.

    In the lower left of the chart is an option for JAVA or FLASH...click it - it will open a new page for your equitey....and then you can use the tools across the top of the chart to draw on/ Annotate. Fool around with it and you'll get better ( at the top where all the 'tools' are...The arrow curling to the left deletes your last move).

    Have fun ( & share) :)

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  34. Gary,

    Sorry for the dumb question if I should know the answer...

    What was the event that "confirmed the intermediate bottom" for gold? Was it gold now breaching the prior cycle high? Is it 2 cycles in a row in an uptrend?

    It might be old news but I saw Poly post a reply that technically the last DCL (not the 1530 bottom) could be an intermediate low (also WW seems to think this way as it is more in the timing band).

    In the event that this daily cycle does fail, you would call it already an intermediate cycle failure and not a new intermediate bottom (still being in the timing band)?

    All of this may be moot in about 10 minutes when gold gaps up $100.

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  35. When gold started a new pattern of higher highs and higher lows that confirmed the intermediate low on Sept. 26.

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  36. Alex ,

    Thanks for your post at 2.21pm...will try tomorrow morning and share if I come up with somethingbinteresting

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  37. Alex,

    I never knew that about stockcharts. Thanks.

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  38. So far so good. No Sunday night surprise.

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  39. SOPHIA and DRIVER

    UR welcome. I forgot to mention that if you're a non member , you'll need a separate 'clipping' tool to 'capture' the chart and store and re- post a link to it here.

    If you dont already have one ( some WINDOWS operating systems do )

    This one is safe and free-

    http://www.screencast.com/

    Sidenote: nice pop in Gold & Silver tonight w/dollar green...hope it holds thru tomorrow :)

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  40. gold and silver both green but silver continuing to underperform gold...maybe gold and miners are the place to be for next daily cycle if silver doesnt turn this around

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  41. Miners look like the winning play if you want to lever up on the movement in gold. Miners may even show relative strength on the dips as it has been over the past couple of weeks (GDX moved just over 2x GLD on the upswings and just under 2x on the downswings).

    Silver may rocket up at some point to play catch up but I think there's still a hangover from the parabolic move and crash, and it continues to move as sharply to the downside as to the upside relative to gold.

    What's the point of "hoping" in silver when there's a clear trend in gold that you can lever up against (silver is just magnifying gold anyway) and a potentially new breakout trend in miners that'll match/exceed it?

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  42. David einhorn bets big on miners.

    http://allstarcharts.com/gold-miners-vs-bullion-david-einhorn-bets-on-the-miners/

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  43. NO!!
    Head of Blackrock talking about Miners and Gold- Target 2000...
    Are they trying to get rid of their miners?

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  44. Gary, -- gold --
    We are witnessing a parabola on the 5 minute, from 1764 to 1780, so far, in the past 3+ hours.

    This is straight up, now.

    There's also a gap between Fri's Pit high of 1762 and an opening of 1780. that's an 18 pt gap.

    I will sell a few minutes into the opening and then buy back later in the day. Risk? Yes, but opening squeezes well over 70% of the time drop back to try to fill the gap, even if they take off again.

    There will be many covering shorts, and the nervous many who will enter later in the day. It's the drop of 5 to 10 points that i will try to seize.

    Comments? i know, don't worry the wiggles. This is just so attractive. on a pop like this. I also see this is wave 2 of a 3 wave up. But it's fitting a pattern I saw many times, and I'm compelled, depending on the opening 15 minutes, to act on it.

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  45. I won't take the chance of losing my position. I will be out climbing today so won't be watching the wiggles up and down.

    Plus if it doesn't pull back then you are left with the decision to chase or not. If you do and then it decides to pullback you just shot yourself in the foot.

    Not worth the headaches when gold is only on day 12 of the current daily cycle.

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  46. The GDX:GLD ratio is at multi year lows, suggesting any reversion to past averages and higher gold should easily see GDX test $100.
    I've just seen the easy money made in straight gold too man times to risk it. I'm concerned with equities being a headwind for miners also
    Long term I see miners many times higher, which is why my core is holding chunks of TGDLX.

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  48. I would not be selling here, you're into the heart of the daily cycle now where price normally accelerates over many days and spikes into a daily cycle top. It's in this timing band you can lose positions and never get them back.

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  49. LOL! People think Zero Hedge is unreliable then get their "news" to act on from CNBC and Bloomberg? Comical.

    I'm not selling a damn thing, btw. A pullback will eventually happen but that is where the weak get shaken off the bull. I'm staying in until I get what I came for, and we are nowhere close to a top in miners even if extended in the very short term. People need to ask themselves what will get them back in (if they sell to avoid a drawdown), AND will they be able to buy the same size that they sold?

    My guess is most have too little exposure and will want to ring the register promising themselves they'll buy more at the next dip. Good luck, but that's easier said than done.

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  50. These are my favorite days, done working at 8:30am.

    I'm going to enjoy the day and check back late morning to possibly short the S&P again. Maybe take another stab after getting stopped out almost immediately last week.

    Good luck and good trading to all. See ya later.

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  51. Did by any change the US get out of daylight savings time this weekend? I dont see it changing much at this moment... That means the stockmarket opens one hour later for most of the rest of the world.

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  52. This is the 2nd gap day in a row, Pit high vs next day Pit low. That's in my book breakaway and then exhaution gaps.

    IMO, there may be one more day left of this before there's a quick profit taking, I think even steep.

    For those who are buy and hold for longer than a "move", Gary and Poly are spot on. For me, I will gamble the exit, still not yet taken, as there may be one more panic move within an hour or two or at the end of the day IMO left to the upside in this rise. Whenever this occurs, i'll be sorely tempted to step back for a moment for a 5-10 gift pack.

    I have no problems entering higher than where I exited. The market is moving to The Great Doubling, the round number 2000. So there's lots more to go.

    I know this is irrational. So, don't follow my lead.

    Thx Poly for your viewpoint, as well. It too is helpful. Gary's right about exiting at this time. I just see a pattern that can easily reverse on the very short term.

    I sold the futures at 1774.8

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  53. I meant "I dont see the market changing much at this moment..."

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  54. Paul,
    Yes, we just had the time change.

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  55. Don't kill the messenger BUT,

    Just got back from a trip to the US. I haven't been there for 1 year...Boston and NH...It might just be a woman's impression but it feels like it is not so bad..Restaurants are full, Malls are busy, gas is cheap still, I am not so sure anymore about this doom and gloom...
    Don't shoot me, it was just a perception that I wanted to share

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  56. Sophia,

    On the surface,yes it does look like that. We live near a very exclusive mall, it is always busy and the restaurants usually have customers. On the flip side, I know three people that have been unable to find a job for more than 2 1/2 years. These are educated, intelligent people who have looked all over the country and are willing to work for 1/2 their previous salary. All have lost their homes. Hundreds of thousands of people have completely run out of all unemployment benefits and even if they are extended again by the government, these people are no longer eligible.

    Severe poverty is at an all time high and more than 48 million people are on food stamps. My daughter and I volunteer at local charities, I suspect that if you went to a food bank or a shelter, your impression would be different.

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  57. Elaine,

    Wow, this is really grim! Is it true that 48 mios people are on food stamps? That is dramatic! I didn't have this feeling at all. We've got lucky as all our family members are employed and found jobs in the last 12-24 months despite some being very young and inexperienced...

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  58. Sophia

    That's an easy one.

    All those happy people spending money and eating out are underwater in there mortgages and not making house payments...

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  59. Sophia,

    Yes, just do a google search, and you will be able to confirm this.

    There are jobs, my brother was unemployed for about 6 weeks and was able to find a job that paid about 25% less than what he had been paying, he is now only about 10% below his previous salary. So, it's not that there aren't any jobs, but there are not a lot of jobs. Some people may potentially never work again. The latest statistics show that if the US continues to create jobs at the current level, it will take more than 12 years to achieve our level of employment of approximately 5% unemployed.

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  60. Sorry, should have said previous level of unemployment - 5%.

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  61. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  62. I know of many people that have stopped paying on their mortgage long ago due to upside down loans and they are happy as pigs in shit spending all the money on chinese junk, fast food, booze, and drugs. They live in the homes for years w/o paying. Most even have the double windfall of unemployment compensation for nearly two years (99ers). Throw in food stamps, welfare, charitable organization handouts, etc. and they feel as if they've landed in nirvana. Most are becoming quickly unemployable and physically and mentally ill.

    What a feking zoo this world has become. We are witnessing the collapse of socialism.

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  63. High 5

    I see it as the public doing to the banks what the banks did to 1600 pennsylvania ave.

    Walk away...

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  64. Giants Fan,

    "I see it as the public doing to the banks what the banks did to 1600 pennsylvania ave."

    I see it as a much deeper situation.

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  65. I agree

    But the majority out there doesn't see it..
    They see a free ride and take it.

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  66. "They see a free ride and take it."

    Agreed, that is why socialism (crony "capitalism") doesn't work very well. Eventually all the animals must be let out of the zoo (when other peoples money runs out) and they can't survive in the wild. They can't handle freedom.

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  67. Can't find a job? Many men here in western Montana are now working in the North Dakota and eastern Montana Bakken oil play at $50K to $100K a year. Some are oil rig workers, some drivers etc. Tough work, lousy hours, long way from home, and accomodations are Army type barracks. They do it for their families. All blue collar people by the way. There are jobs, you just have to leave places like Santa Monica and be willing to get your hands dirty.

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  68. short stocks / long gold working out better than i could have imagined.

    stopped out of my TBT though. think USTs might be due for a good run here.

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  69. Just a little rundown for those trying to short the S&P, the market pulled back to the 20sma and bounced right off it to back test the 150sma. Today the market reversed as soon as it tagged the 150sma, which would have been a perfect short entry had I decided to short the market again, which I have not being im heavy gold long.

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  70. sophia,
    Gas is relatively cheap; not like the UK or Europe, here in Northern Canada it's 1.27$/l or 4.80$/gallon.
    There are people eating in restaurants and buying new cars frequently but most of them are unable to really afford them and the overly large houses that they don't need but want, the gadgets they must have, smoke and mirrors.
    There are those who can truly afford it and then there is the rest that keep the economy afloat by going deeper into debt.

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  71. oa92000 said...
    paas over 30.47, strong buy

    I would avoid PAAS as they have exposure in Argentina. That is the reason Casey Research just stopped recommending them.

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  72. Actually they say PAAS has 58% of production in Puru, Bolivia and Argentina - 3 risky countries to be mining in right now.

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  73. Poly:

    Based on your experience, any tips for an ideal time/place to sell into a daily cycle top (if you're looking to lighten up on leverage ahead of a daily cycle correction)? I've noticed high-volume, multi-% moves that stretch way above the upper Bollinger Band tend to turn down the rally. I'm guess volatility spikes as well?

    I appreciate that a) spotting tops is extremely hard, and b) if we enter a runaway move (like last cycle) then a correction may never arrive and one is forced to chase. I intend to hold a core position and just try to lighten up on leverage so in the worst case if I never re-enter and gold goes straight up, I'll still be happy.

    Any thoughts are appreciated!

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  74. Ver,

    Look for volume spikes on a 5 min chart and a 30-40$ stretch above the 200sma. Daily cycle tops often occur in asian trade.

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  75. Ver,

    Of course in the timing band. But then again look what happened last intermediate cycle, there basically wasnt a significant pullback until 28 days after the IC low. We also just had a decent pullback.

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  76. WW,

    I'd like to swap some of my IRA GLD to DGP - would today be as good as any?

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  77. Thanks WW. Is there a free to use tool to do 5 min. charting? I use stockcharts but suspect I'll need to use something more sophisticated / paid for?

    Totally agree, we could well see another runaway move. The strength in gold is something else. Forget magnifying gold's moves, the miners and silver are just barely keeping up!

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  78. Kate,

    We may actually be at a daily top in GLD right now.

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  79. Ver,

    I use ThinkorSwim...Im not sure you will find a free realtime 5 min.

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  80. WW,

    Would that mean a DC top for DGP too then, and not a good time to swap?

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  81. Kate,

    Why not wait until the daily cycle low is in?

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  82. Kate,

    But then again like I mentioned to Ver we may see another runaway move.

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  83. Kate,

    If plan on holding through any draw down, today would be as good a time as any.

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  84. WW:

    Figured.

    Hmmm...you seeing signs we're topping already, so early in the cycle and after the consolidation at the 50?

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  85. Ver,

    Netdania -  choose "Instruments" to select "Gold,spot". Then, go to "Studies" to select SMAs, etc. 

     http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

    Also, freestockcharts.com. It uses Microsoft Silverlight, though. I haven't tried it, yet. 

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  86. Ver,

    NO... I see no signs of topping, I was referring to a daily high, not daily cyle top.

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  87. Gap is about to close on the $HUI, but stay open on GDX for another 1% or so.

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  88. Appreciate your thinking on this WW - add another burrito IOU to your tally,

    KP

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  89. Ver,
    I`ve used freestockcharts.com alot and they have a lot of goodies on there including time settings. I get the feeling that their whole system may be off set by some degree of seconds, within 30 I`d say, but a slight lag from following my fido ATP program.

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  90. Kate,

    If you were to swap today and we were to have a drawdown for a couple days you would be giving back more percentage wise with DGP, thats the only thing. But if your going to hold through this intermediate cycle that shouldnt even be an issue.

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  91. 86,

    Freestockcharts.com is not realtime.

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  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  93. W2,
    I believe that`s what I was alluding(hinting at :)to, but it`s pretty close. To time exact day trade exits maybe a tad tricky, but I believe the question started with a 5 min chart. Or am I off my rocker again, as usual? Glad to see you back, and busting my balls...Lol

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  94. Reposting without the critical typo :)

    . . .

    Kate:

    If you have a position (and a profit cushion) that you are happy with, then I'd suggest you hold and as we get dips/corrections you can start to swap into the higher-leverage vehicle. This way as you swap you are taking advantage of lower prices to buy in bigger. And if lower prices never come, you won't complain because your current position will keep increasing. Obvious warning here is to noT swap so aggressively into higher-leverage vehicles that it may scare you into selling if the correction deepens (as it likely will). Also, be lighter on the leverage the later in the intermediate cycle it gets as the likelihood of an intermediate top and a lower daily cycle low increase.

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  95. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  96. Ver,

    Looked like it wanted to top, but like I mentioned I wouldnt count on it unless gold is stretched atleast $30-$40 over the 200sma on a 5 minute....so yes phew, but in a good way because I have no problem with higher highs...LOL :)

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  97. As far as I know, Gold and Silver are live at Netdania. Other things, such as US Dollar Index and Crude Oil are not.

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  98. WW good luck with your heart. Hope it wasn't damaged too much

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  99. I believe TOS has a free 'paper money' account that is real-time.

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  100. Eamonn,

    Thank you my friend...I suffered a bit of damage this time and the last, but im so healthy otherwise I should be ticking for a bit longer. Im the picture of health with a bad heart. Im not sure I have many lives left though..I have to be on like 7-8 by now, lost count :)

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  101. Appreciate your comments Ver!

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  102. W2,
    So if I`m getting you right, your saying daily cycle tops are usually 30-40$ over the 200 sma on a 5 min, not the 200 dma? Also, is there a difference between which daily cycle? Such as the first versus the forth?

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  103. Ver,

    Late cycle spiking BB breaks are a must sell for leveraged hands, IMO.
    We're not late cycle so we should remain heavy, although we're now seeing price move up to the upper bands and short term over bought conditions flashing. A day or two more of this without some relief will have me dumping my leveraged positions.

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  104. 86,

    Im talking about daily highs rolling over, whether it be at the top of a daily cycle or within any given run like were seeing today...on a 5 minute you will see huge volume spikes and gold will be stretched atleast 30-40$ above the 200sma on a 5 minute chart before it begins to rollover. Tops that occur on a daily basis are usually no different when they occur at the top of a daily cycle. The only difference is that when they rollover into a daily cycle low the correction is more drawn out.

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  105. Right now gold is roughly $20 over the 200sma on a 5 minute and there was only one volume spike earlier, not several volume spikes, its just a steady grind higher....its not ready to rollover.

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  106. This is exactly the kind of day I was expecting today.

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  107. Thanks. Started watching on a 5min and it`s pretty cool to see it in realtime. Beautiful crawl right on the 10sma almost all day. So if you were trading GLD, you would say 3-4$ over the 200sma and call it good? And what would you use as an exit signal to exit?

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  108. W2,
    once you hit the 3-4$over, you would use the volume spike to exit?

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  109. Beautiful day here and good looking charts. Glad I bought the dip last week.

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  110. 86,

    Yes, look for volume spikes and a stretch above the 200sma on a 5 minute. Having watched and traded gold futures for hours upon hours, you begin to recognize tops, not all, some are very deceptive and look like normal small pullbacks and before you know it gold is putting in lower highs and lows. I mentioned earlier, many tops occur in asian trade overnight, so if your looking to exit GLD at a daily cycle top look for volume spikes when gold is stretched above the 200sma on a 5 minute, within the timing band. Remember though, we didnt get anything other then sideways trading to the 10dma throughout the first daily cycle of the last IC...gold was already significantly higher before any real pullback occured, so I would be more inclined this time around to hold through daily cycle corrections (if we get any).

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  111. Remember people, Santa Claus is coming to town....he dishes out a whole lot of gold!

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  112. What a melt up. It looks like gold may blow through $1800 and not look back. This run up is exactly like the last intermediate cycle low where everyone was waiting for a smackdown and instead gold turned up forcing everyone to chase.

    This seems like the kind of action to sell into (when others are greedy) but I wonder how much people are still fearful and non-believers of this trend. Too early in the cycle as well, but agree with you Poly a few more surprise-to-the-upside days like this and it's dangerous territory.

    What I really want to know is what the $HUI is going to do after it fills the gap. Correction, consolidation, or follow-through to test all-time highs. The first seems too obvious but the hedgies have sure shown us they know how to scare the shit out of weak hands along the way.

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  113. Miners look scared to death to hit that 610 level, their like "cant we just stay here for a while?"

    Now dont everyone go flipping out on me (especially you SB)....lol

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  114. W2,
    Thank you. It is very hard not to take profits here(And I may trim a tad in the next day or two if this keeps up)but I would hate to lose my entrys too.

    Also noticed GLD on top of SOS. Small number, nonetheless, let`s be mindful.

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  115. Ver,

    Even with big up days like today I'll begin getting worried when gold stops grinding higher and you see it start spiking with panic buying. Today is the first day that looks to me like people are just beginning to realize gold is going back up....lol

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  116. exited all positions, reversed long in SPY

    /es system buy target 1282 stop 1232

    /gc i had drawn in a channel, resistance was at 1795. dunno. maybe it pops back in. personally taking a breather.

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  117. Look at the juice going into GLD at the close!

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  118. I didn't short the S&P today, but still looking to take another crack at it sometime this week.

    Miners are dandy. No selling here, not even to avoid a likely pullback. HUI testing the 610 area, so around here seems as good a place as any to stall.

    I haven't added to miners in awhile, but will look to do so on a multiple day pullback if it occurs. Other than that, you are free to move around the cabin. :)

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  119. 1799.9
    High for the day on thinkorswim

    Couldn't one of you heavy hitters put in one more market order...

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  120. still wondering what the effect of the forthcoming european shock event is going to be.

    italian bonds have been beyond escape velocity for a few days now. easy to ignore / be fatigued by all the crap news and rumours every day but i have definitely been preparing to wake up one morning to a real mess. keeping about 50% dry powder at all times.

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  121. SB, I knew you would be smiling. Let us know when you add.

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  122. Gary,

    If one is not invested at all in the mining sector right now would you buy some here or just wait for the next correction? I ask b/c you are cutting exposure in the model portfolio.

    Also, how high do you think something like GDX could go before we are completely out (say next spring-ish)?

    Thank you

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  123. that AGQ looks like going to follow ALex's chart and shoot up..

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  124. oa92000 said...

    that AGQ looks like going to follow ALex's chart and shoot up..

    November 7, 2011 6:14 PM

    Hey, Dont shoot the messenger if it doesnt follow , LOL

    : ]

    I was just pointing out how intriguing it is that it has so far.
    Different market conditions could certainly get a different ( and opposite reaction) .

    That said , I am still Bullish Metals, except for the occasional down day or two with normal -healthy pullbacks...then I look for the 10 or 20sma as possible support / reversal points.

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  125. S&P is getting back to the business of crushing shorts.

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  126. stocks playing catch-up today.

    buy signal to 1282 still running but USTs showing strength this morning. probably all noise until italy is through wasting everyone's time.

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  127. The only thing that has any predictive value at all is the SPYDER's and sometimes GLD at intermediate tops.

    The only time I would pay much attention to IVV is if it was first confirmed by a large SoS or BoW in the SPY.

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  128. Is anybody going to do the potential portfolio change that Gary mentioned in the nightly report?

    Or are most going to stay put? I am going to stay put since I pretty much just follow the model portfolio.

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  129. I am going to follow as i have too much leverage now... however only if the targets mentioned get reached. If we get a pullback earlier i will hold as in my view it would just be a quick shakeout.

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  130. slw just does not want to drop..

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  131. Gary,
    $gold:$silver ratio is 50..Does silver look cheap to you?

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  132. ZH posted about it more than 5x in 48 hours. pretty reliable sell signal.

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  133. Are we having a swing high on Gold?

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  134. St. Deluise said "ZH posted about it more than 5x in 48 hours. pretty reliable sell signal." Who/what are you referring to?

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  135. ZeroHedge, the blog. i was being a bit snarky.

    but seriously, when the gold sentiment starts getting frothy over there, look out. they were absolutely losing their mind about 72 hours before gold finally topped.

    in other news some decent sell divergence developing in /es, still holding out for 1282 but moving stop to 1263 in light of gold's little puke out.

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  136. I re-read the terminology, not sure that we have a swing high

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  137. Sophia,
    He's saying that if ZeroHedge is talking about gold a lot, then it is a sure sell signal. Just a "dis" on ZeroHedge because they tend to get things wrong. So, if they are talking up gold, it's sure to go the other way.

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  138. gold have to go below 1754 in order to have a swing high.Marked 1776 low.So no swing yet.IMO

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  139. Deluise,

    For a guy that doesn't like Zero Hedge, you sure read it a lot to know they wrote about gold 5x in the last day. :)

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  140. We had a higher high in Gold. No swing high.

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  141. For a swing high if gold today now, we must have tomorrow a lower low compare of today and no higher high

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  142. if gold close today i meant. sorry for the language mistakes

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  143. Swing or not, I'm staying long all my metals/miners and looking forward to a puke out so I can add some more.

    Regarding the S&P, I still have not gotten a signal to enter the short side. the general market can't seem to get a short term downtrend started yet.

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  144. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  145. haha what can i say. they're the best at putting new stuff out there quick. but that'll be the last of it for me.

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  146. If gold close near to today´s low, il would be "easy" tomorrow to make a swing low, since it doesnt make a higher high.

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  147. SB,

    Same here, swing or not im sitting on my eggs like a big chicken.

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  148. WW,

    I think of you more as a turkey.

    ;)

    Glad you're feeling better, friend.

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  149. Rob L,

    I eat chicken like their going extinct...im growing feathers. So start thinking of me as a big chicken...lol

    Thanks my friend :)

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  150. guys, all of you, you crack me up!
    thanks CKPC for your prompt answer, was cooking dinner ( seabass and risotto)....will buy some tomorrow morning to be with the team!

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  151. Elliot,

    Do you mean futures traders? There are many.

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  152. Gary

    I will tell you to the day when your cycle analysis will no longer work. When Kramer is talking about on pump and dump, oh I ment mad money.

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  153. SF,
    I laughed so hard my cheeks hurt!

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  154. Hey WW what's your read on the PM weakness before the stock market close today? Looked more like a shakeout than your fruit dropping pattern but perhaps that's my wishful thinking. Meanwhile the dollar looks like it's limping along and rolling over.

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  155. 86-

    You should have a doctor check that out. I don't think your butt cheeks should hurt when you laugh.

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  156. Ver,

    Gold started pulling back after the news dropped about the italian PM resigning, I wouldnt put too much weight on that pullback though.

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  157. Ah yes, the infamous WW news trade! The gold bull waited for you to get back on your feet before getting back to its usual games.

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  158. 86

    I saw Cramer on a big screen, drawing lines on a chart, explaining MACD cross and some other bla bla, and that is when it hit me.

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  159. SF Giant - everytime Jim Cramer's annoying voice came on TV, I will switch channel. It seems like he has a newsletter that he is spamming my email for. Personally I think he is an idiot.

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  160. There is the Cramer crowd and the SMTers. We are in a different league.
    I don't know how anybody could make a nickel from that guy.
    Oh well he's entrainment during the commercials.

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  161. And that`s exactly it; entertainment. He is pretty funny but really he could be talking about almost anything, he just happens to be talking about the market. Hearing about him takes me back to my beginning. No wonder I got my a$$ kicked! Lol. What a nightmare! Thank God for Gary Savage and all the SMT folks.

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  162. A friend of mine sent me an interview clip with him one time. It was kind of old, taking a guess, 15 years ago plus, and he was talking about when he was at GS and how they would move markets around and of course they would be set up ahead of time. I think that was before the HFT really took hold. To a newbie, that was a real eye opener and now it`s ancient history.

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  163. ckpc,
    isn`t that it? Everyday is like a learning adventure! What a God send. Are you still lugging around that truck in the mud?

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  164. This was cramers best call. Seriously

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOVXh4xM-Ww&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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  165. Gary's latest post seems pretty reasonable.

    Not much going on right now. Everyone waiting to see what the dollar will do and its taking forever. Problem is, the situation in Europe is foggy and protracted.

    My guess is that the dollar will finally find a real bottom sometime this year. Meaning gold will most likely creep higher. Silver I am not as impressed with. Silver feels like a market just waiting for an excuse to correct.

    When PMs finally roll over and the dollar puts in the rally everyone has been waiting for the potential PM pull back could be fairly nasty IMO even if temporary. Guess we'll see. Good luck.

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  166. Haven't ruled out that the last big dollar rally is actually already underway. I have doubted this scenario for a while due mainly to a huge gap low on UUP's chart, but it's still possible. I do realize UUP is not $USD and that the dollar trades 24hrs. But a chart of UUP indicates that not many large gaps are left unfilled. Still, nothing says that large gap cannot be filled at a much later date.

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  167. I can't get any good charts on the dollar, I used to use Bloomberg but it doesn't come up any more. Did the dollar make a higher high than on the 3rd day of this cycle? Any good reliable places to get accurate charts of the dollar?

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  168. Oh god now what?
    Another day another crisis.

    Judging by the move in the dollar (big)
    And the move in gold (small)
    That Bodes well for the shiny stuff.

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  169. Close but not quite yet. I think it will though.

    Greece was just the first cockroach. Now the Italian bond market is starting to break.

    The day is coming when this cancer will infect the US bond market. When that day arrives a choice will have to be made to default honestly or unleash the printing press.

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  170. Yes I think the action in the PM markets this morning probably means this daily cycle isn't done yet.

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  171. Take off your logical hat and put on your politician hat.

    Next year is an election year so that should give some clues.

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  172. Haggerty,
    There are probably 50 different ways to watch the dollar. Personally, I just go here to watch in (fairly) real time...

    http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY/tab/2

    For charts I look up $USD at StockCharts.com but it is only updated once, after hours. Of course during the day you can also watch UUP.

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  173. gold behaving like a stellar trooper here in the face of dollar strength

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