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Sunday, November 13, 2011

DOLLAR TEETERING ON THE ABYSS

We all better hope I'm wrong on this one, but I think the CRB just put in its three year cycle low in October. I'm also afraid that Bernanke has done irreparable damage to the dollar. If I'm right about both of those assumptions then we are on the brink of a historic inflationary period.

I've marked the major three year cycle bottoms in both the CRB index and the dollar in the chart below with blue arrows. (Actually the CRB cycle tends to run about two and half years on average.)




The dollar is now a great risk of forming a left translated three year cycle. A break below the October 27 intraday low would initiate a pattern of lower lows and lower highs of an intermediate degree.That is usually a sign that a major cycle has topped. If the dollar's three year cycle has topped after only five months we will be at great risk of a severe currency crisis in the fall of 2014 when the next three year cycle low is due.

Even more concerning is if the CRB cycle has bottomed. If it has then commodities are poised for a huge surge higher during the next two years as the dollar deteriorates.

The next two weeks are going to be critical for the dollar. It must hold above the October 27 low. Failure to do so would indicate that the cancer has now infected the currency markets, most specifically the US dollar.

If this scenario unfolds it has the potential to drive the bubble phase of the gold bull market.

355 comments:

  1. Gary,

    Thank you for always keeping us focused on the big picture.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Gary, you are dead wrong

    The USD is the best house on a bad block

    ECB will be forced to print, sending the USD higher

    ReplyDelete
  3. We should know in the next two weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. BTW the Fed has already printed about 12 trillion if you include guarantees to Fannie and Freddie.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Gary,

    I posted this on the weekend report but didn't see you reply, on this topic.

    Is it possible that the USD just chops around or does it have to either go up aggressively (out of 3 year low) or dive aggressively (LT 3 year cycle)? If it does chop, what would you think that would mean for gold and equities? Chop as well?

    I'm just too young to understand heavy inflation and really cannot see $10 a gallon gas in the next 2 - 3 years.

    If the dollar does roll over like this, what would your hypothesis be for a gallon of gas in 2014?

    Thanks a lot.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks, Gary.

    As I posted earlier, my charts agree with your assessment of the dollar going lower. Daily lower & weekly lower.

    Are you about ready to look for your new home in Australia/New Zealand?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Gary,

    In the next two weeks , depends of how the dollar and the CRB plays, do you thinks it's time to get some bullion or physical as part of the portfolio ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Gary,

    You have to update the dollar chart on the cycle counts...no?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Copper up 10 cents. Silver up 8 cents.

    If copper is a leading indicator and this sticks, Gold should have a nice pop this week.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Gary,

    Oil has outpaced gold by a substantial amount since October 1 or thereabouts.

    If the next 2 weeks confirm that the CRB has bottomed, might you consider taking a position in USO or some such ETF? The CRB can't fly without oil going to the moon, can it? Gold is only 6% of the index, tied with soybeans and several others. Oil is 23%.

    I know you often say oil is a has-been, but I can't ignore its recent outperformance so I had to ask this.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anyone,

    I thought the method to receive text messages re. Gary's updates would be on the site, but I couldn't find it. Could someone please remind me on the text to send whereby I could receive those updates? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Driver,
    If you are a sub, sign in on the SMTP site and Gary has a link on the right hand side top of list of links.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen but I will share a few thoughts I've had...

    IMO the dollar looks eager for its last hurrah in the sun before the tables are turned and Europe moves into pole position to dominate the world. They will milk this 'crisis' for all it's worth until their ducks are in a row. I'd give it another 6 months to 1 year.

    The dollar low in May was quite a low. Since then the dollar has been consolidating.

    Israel is key. When will they attack Iran? That event may finally prompt the USA to pull support from Israel, especially if they use a nuke. Pulling support from Israel will seal the USA's fate. Israel must be 110% confident that it can stand alone. My guess is that they will wait until the last possible moment. So there is still some time left. Iran is not quite there yet.

    ReplyDelete
  14. The dollar has basically been chopping back and forth for the last three years even though we've had some big moves in both directions.

    One could make the case that the last three year cycle was nothing more than a big consolidation in an ongoing secular bear market. If that's the case then the current three year cycle should see the dollar put in another big leg down.

    ReplyDelete
  15. BBPOINT,
    The only reason to buy bullion would be if you think we are at risk of hyperinflation in the near future.

    That's unlikely to happen until at least 2014 so there's no great urgency to buy physical and deal with the large spreads associated with that market.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Lately, the dollar seems to be doing the opposite of what everyone expects.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Cat,
    It's probably too late to jump on oil now. Once everyone has noticed the outperformance then it's usually too late. You need to buy an asset before the move starts.

    Personally I think it's time for the mining stocks to deliver a huge surge to the upside. So rather than chase oil, which has already had its move, I would rather stay invested in the sector that I think is going to produce the next big move.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Very bold statement and many here are on the right side of that trade. However, it seems something always comes out of left field that changes things.
    It's like big Ben is reading this blog and goes " oh yea, I don't think so"

    ReplyDelete
  19. Question, does anyone buy gold/silver from Perth Mint of from goldmoney.com?

    ReplyDelete
  20. PM manipulation talk is a waste of time.

    Now how about our US congress and house of rep trading on proposed bills, laws and appropriations. Many behind closed doors. Frigging insider trading.

    Watch tonight's 60 minutes and watch nancy paloski and others squirm and dance around the questions.

    We have the best government money can buy

    ReplyDelete
  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Won't higher oil prices hurt minging stocks since they are large energy users? I guess It would take a few qtrs of higher oil prices to effect earnings..

    ReplyDelete
  23. ...at ease,

    I looked at that link but it's for emails. I was looking for the way to receive text messages.

    BTW, no on your question re. gold & silver, but golddealer.com is a good source.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Driver,
    Thanks... I signed up for a twitter account, searched for Gary Savage and selected to follow him.

    I also understand you can text message on your phone
    follow garysavage1
    to 404040

    ReplyDelete
  25. Thanks, ...at ease. That's what I was looking for.

    ReplyDelete
  26. at ease/driver,

    The number to text to is 40404.

    Best,
    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  27. Gary,

    You had said for new purchases at this point (especially if one is not invested yet) would be to wait for a swing to form (not sure if it was on gold or the dollar). That was late last week. Has this occurred and would now be a good time to enter initial positions? Thanks...

    ReplyDelete
  28. CRB index looks like a broken parabola to me.

    ReplyDelete
  29. I said to wait for a daily cycle low. That hasn't occurred yet.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I'm not using the USD index to determine what I do with miners, but if I had to wager on the confetti, I'd bet this observation of Gary's is most probable:

    "One could make the case that the last three year cycle was nothing more than a big consolidation in an ongoing secular bear market. If that's the case then the current three year cycle should see the dollar put in another big leg down."

    People sitting in cash will get stung eventually, and if they cannot get invested now they are kidding themselves that they'll flee the USD into gold when it's $2,500 or more. We've seen people follow gold for years, while never taking much profit from the bull.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Just like silver was bound to start making $4-5 moves in a day, I wonder how long before gold puts in a +$300 day?

    I suspect it'll be sooner than most of us think.

    ReplyDelete
  32. My guess is we'll see this type move before February. Time will tell, but better be long b/c buying after the move rarely allows for strong hand status.

    ReplyDelete
  33. I think the USD is headed for $90. Just MO.

    ReplyDelete
  34. "Merkel Says Europe Facing Toughest Crisis Since WWII."

    Why would the EU's most powerful leader make such an explosive comment if the if the worst was over?

    Because the worst is yet to come.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Danno,

    Of course the worst is to come, all around the world. Focusing on the dollar vs euro is taking your eye off the ball, IMO.

    Your thoughts on the confetti vs confetti should not affect your outlook on metals. Only thing I care about is gold vs. dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Danno,

    Just keep pecking away at that keyboard enjoying all those big gains you're making! lol

    ReplyDelete
  37. Isn't this the complete and total opposite of what you've generally been suggesting over the last few months Gary?

    I thought 2012 was to be a complete and total "depression" and one of the worst years we've ever seen.

    Commods up?....Stocks up no?...dollar down? stocks up no?

    I am interested in what factors could have turned the tables in your view - so drastically?

    ReplyDelete
  38. SB,
    Now you are talking about things you know nothing of. I have only mentioned one trade of any real size on this board. You have no idea what I'm doing right now. But go ahead and keep shooting your mouth off if it makes you feel like a big man.

    ReplyDelete
  39. blog post,
    That has always been conditional on the dollar rallying out of its three year cycle low.

    If Bernanke aborts the dollar rally then 2012 is going to be a bad year, but it will be a bad year because of surging inflation. 2013 and 2014 will be even worse.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Danno,

    You were the rude one, and I stand by my point. You're hanging around making inane predictions when you can't even make $10 to try out Gary's service.

    Aren't you the same clown that was long silver and long the leveraged silver short etf at the same time as a "hedge"? Ridiculous.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SB,
    I still own AGQ. I hedged with ZSL. That hedge did not perform well, but by hook & crook I sold/bought/sold ZSL several times and also sold AGQ covered calls several times. That trade is now nearly break even, but I admit it took a lot more work than I thought it would.

    I don't think disagreeing with Gary is the same as insulting Gary. I see a lot of guys insulting Gary on this blog and I don't think that's right.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Danno,

    You need a nap. Who said anything at all about insulting Gary?

    Try and think a little before you speak. I didn't ask what trades you have on, either. I could not care any less.

    Now get back to that amazing analysis of yours and let us know what you come up with. :)

    ReplyDelete
  43. Thanks Gary.

    I too ( in trading currencies only) see this recent "dollar action" as a bit unsettling.

    And yes....the move off the bottom has been quite slow with little conviction - but - still heading in the right direction as per most of my charts (however choppy) with several 'daily closes' now above the 200 SMA now (barely) turning upward.

    So....ya....they suuuuure arent makin it easy - and as you;ve suggested the next couple weeks should be very very telling.

    I imagine some kind of "big news" out of Europe (perhaps China stepping in etc...) would likely seal the deal (as we've recently seen - markets wanna go up up up like mad once this is over with) so......onward.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Thanks Gary.

    I too ( in trading currencies only) see this recent "dollar action" as a bit unsettling.

    And yes....the move off the bottom has been quite slow with little conviction - but - still heading in the right direction as per most of my charts (however choppy) with several 'daily closes' now above the 200 SMA now (barely) turning upward.

    So....ya....they suuuuure arent makin it easy - and as you;ve suggested the next couple weeks should be very very telling.

    I imagine some kind of "big news" out of Europe (perhaps China stepping in etc...) would likely seal the deal (as we've recently seen - markets wanna go up up up like mad once this is over with) so......onward.

    ReplyDelete
  45. i see a little sparring going on today...must be due to the market's lack on action!

    Danno, why would you hedge your silver position? if you enter a position after a significant bottom you have to give your position a chance to run.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Glad to see other people starting to call out Danno and the useless barrage of nonsense he posts all day long.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Razvan,
    I bought AGQ at $239 (before it split 2:1). I knew it was risky, so I hedged with ZSL instead of putting in a stop loss.

    Dan,
    You could have made a boat load of money on my USD head & shoulders call. Even drew a picture.

    ReplyDelete
  48. I will stick with Gary to increase my chance of making a boatload of money.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Danno, apologies if I offended thee...just joking

    ReplyDelete
  50. SB - I read all your posts, you don't seem to think there is a tight connection between gold and USD. What do you watch for gold's action? Just gold futures? Commodity index? Just picking your brain, not being argumentative. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  51. Danno

    Please don't waste ur time with SB. He is way out of your league.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Added two small positions to SLV and GDX - each on limit orders at the 50 moving period average on a 15min chart. DGP (12%), SLV (13%), and GDX (36%).

    ReplyDelete
  53. intelliblue2000,

    Sure there is a connection between the dollar and gold, as one is purchased with the other. It's the focus on the USD index that throws people off, as the index is just the dollar vs other confetti.

    We've already seen the USD index and gold move together in the same direction enough of the time that focusing on the index provides no edge. One has to predict where the USD index is going, THEN also guess if the index and gold will move together or inversely. Too many moving parts to provide a reliable edge.

    For example, the USD index might rise in a "flight to quality" but gold might go up for the same reason. The way I see it, gold is going up vs the actual dollar (not the index) and that's all I need to know for the trade. In short, the USD index is not the dollar, just a measure against other flawed currencies (not gold).

    ReplyDelete
  54. Of course, there are times that the USD index will rise and gold will drop, but correlation is not causation.

    I also would guess we'll see less of this typical relationship as the bull market progresses. Eventually, all anybody will care about is price of gold in their currency, totally neglecting the USD index.

    ReplyDelete
  55. SB - thanks for your response. What do you watch for the USD? Many times I just pick a few currencies against USD, watch those to get a sense of the relative value of USD.

    ReplyDelete
  56. intelliblue2000,

    For the last year I haven't paid much attention to the USD index. I'm focused on metals/miners for now, but if I were trading currency, I would most likely trade only pairs.

    We might even see the USD index just meander around in a wide range for years, while commodities rip higher. If each central bank prints the equivalent of $2 trillion in their own currency next week, the index would stay the same, but the action would be very positive for gold with so much more confetti out there. :)

    ReplyDelete
  57. SB - thanks for your explanation. I would love to see miners rip higher from here ;)

    ReplyDelete
  58. I think they will, maybe not from this moment, but certainly from these levels.

    I'm leaving Wed for 18 days(+/-) vacation and my ideal situation would be to return and see the $HUI around 570, so that I could add more. A week or two of sideways drift would be alright in my book. If they just rip from here, I can live with that too, but I'm no longer at all concerned about a collapse into the end of the year. Patience will be rewarded as long as we don't force an error by watching every wiggle. :)

    ReplyDelete
  59. SB - enjoy your trip. Don't bring any laptop or iPad...

    ReplyDelete
  60. Shalom,

    Would you add here? What vehicles do you like in the miners? Also, do you have a price you like GDX?

    Thanks...

    ReplyDelete
  61. Thanks intelliblue2000, but I'll have a computer to check in on quotes and maybe place a few orders here and there.


    Bullion Trader,

    I suppose it depends on how much you already own, if I didn't have any I would nibble but since I'm closing in on my total % risk I'm willing to lose, I'll wait to add into a good shock lower. Maybe two good size down days in a row, or an oversold stochastic on the daily charts, something like that.

    As far as a price on GDX, I'd be happy to pick some up if it pulls back to the 50 MA around $59+. If that were my first purchase, I'd plan on giving it plenty of room (smaller position) to avoid any shakeouts. I'd put my stop $6 below my entry point.

    ReplyDelete
  62. BT,

    Also, this is a longer term "trade", hence the very wide stop. It depends on what your expected hold time is.

    If I were day trading, I would not buy here, but since we're looking several weeks out at least, best to give it a lot of room. :)

    ReplyDelete
  63. SB, LMAO

    "You were the rude one, and I stand by my point. You're hanging around making inane predictions when you can't even make $10 to try out Gary's service."

    Danno, you should listen to SB. He knows of what he talks about.

    ReplyDelete
  64. I'm looking at the 3-month daily chart for GLD. I try not to read too much TA into them, BUT dang, it sure looks like a cup with handle forming on lower volume. I am hoping for one more push higher before the DCL... Maybe I should just back off on the koolaid.

    Anyone else?

    ReplyDelete
  65. The more blogs I browse, I get the sense that most are short the S&P or are looking for Europe to spell the endgame for stocks. BOW number creeping up today.

    ReplyDelete
  66. David,

    I agree with you....Dax is not selling off as much as it used to, Cac40 holding pretty well considering, so are we too pessimistic?

    ReplyDelete
  67. Shalomy,

    You are going to miss art basel.
    Why would you leave now?!?

    ReplyDelete
  68. GARY,

    blogger is marking everything i write as spam; do you have a setting to permanently make me NOT SPAM??

    ReplyDelete
  69. lol, I know what your trying to do!

    ReplyDelete
  70. HELP GARY HELP,
    I'm trapped in SPAM LAND!

    ReplyDelete
  71. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  72. TZ is back!
    where have you been? i thought that you blew up your account trying to buy the dip... :)

    ReplyDelete
  73. Hey Danno,

    I think 50 million abortions performed in this country sealed USA's fate, not whether we support Israel's corrupt regime, if they decide to get us into another war. Bibi Netanyahu is going to reap the whirlwind.

    ReplyDelete
  74. rally should start yet this week. some cycles i see point to this. everything is a risk but these are fairly high probability. so was buying little weakness today like dba few others. not going wild.

    do have stops.

    ReplyDelete
  75. RAZ,

    My posts hang in for about 3 seconds and then google removes them as spam. It's a crap system here. I think i need gary to 'unspam' my comments and then google won't keep doing that (just like how the email systems work).

    ReplyDelete
  76. Gary,

    Finally we are singing from the same hymn book.

    Damage done (USD)agree...inflation is without doubt a very big part of our short - medium term future ...agree.
    Gotta watch the downward trending channel on the CRB though,which has been the move for the better part of this year. For your theory to stand ..then it will need to breakout to the upside of that channel.....???

    Miners are the place to be. The analysts have them priced using $1200/oz metric. Still unloved but soon to be in high demand. Watch the HUI. It will outpace the CRB and GOLD if they both turn up. My best guess is somewhere north of 50% increment. The Q1 12 will tell all.

    ReplyDelete
  77. My guess is we will see weakness next week with options ex. on 22nd. With Thanksgiving also that week, probably a raid and a chance for those here looking for a opportunity to get in.

    BTW - I don't understand Gary's thesis of not owning physical now, see his quote below. What do you think spreads are going to be like when everyone's trying to get in? Events happen that you or I can't predict. Thinking you can time a physical purchase is crazy. It's like buying emergency supplies in case of earthquake or other disasters. The time to buy is before the event. Doesn't hurt to own some, especially if you believe in the bull.


    Gary said...
    BBPOINT,
    The only reason to buy bullion would be if you think we are at risk of hyperinflation in the near future.

    That's unlikely to happen until at least 2014 so there's no great urgency to buy physical and deal with the large spreads associated with that market.

    ReplyDelete
  78. SB

    I think Danno spent the $10 bucks and finally joined. He's on the other side going by the name of Roy.

    ReplyDelete
  79. TZ,
    I think you got flagged as spam because your posts are often very long. Send me an e-mail whenever it happens and I will unspam them as quickly as possible.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Visitor,
    The time to buy physical,if you want to own physical, would be at an intermediate cycle bottom.

    I think there is almost 0 chance of a hyperinflation any time in the next year so I prefer to own miners which I think will vastly outperform gold or GLD during this intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  81. From my understanding if you want to simply maintain your current value of wealth, you would buy physical gold, however if you want to increase your level of wealth, then trading would be get you there.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Obviously trading paper assets is riskier than holding bullion. Bullion has little, if any, counter party risks.

    If there is some kind of monetary paradigm shift gold derivatives could quickly crash while bullion flys to the moon.

    ReplyDelete
  83. When was the last time in history that derivatives crashed while the underlying assets soared?

    Problems don't emerge when assets are soaring. Look at the housing bubble. There was never a problem until the real estate market started to crash.

    It will be the same for gold. Problems with derivatives won't emerge until the bubble pops not before.

    Folks, these are silly irrational fears.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Gary, maybe if u have the money to spare you could get a dialysis machine for Toby. Just a thought

    ReplyDelete
  85. Gary,

    "Problems with derivatives won't emerge until the bubble pops not before."

    You also said bullion only needed for hyperinflation. Do you expect hyperinflation will pop a gold bubble or are you referring to the dollar bubble? I'm confused.

    ReplyDelete
  86. I took Toby to a specialist last week. He confirmed that he does have stage 2 kidney disease, but he also said he's seen dogs go for years with stage two and it never gets any worse.

    I'm hoping that will be the case here as I will be heartbroken with out my best buddy.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Hyperinflation would drive the final bubble phase of the gold bull market.

    At this point in the bull I would really only recommend physical for someone that has trouble controlling their emotions and tends to sell at the bottom of daily cycles.

    With physical one never gets that urge to sell during corrections.

    But the spreads and liquidity are much better in GLD than in physical gold. Plus I think the miners are going to be the place to be during this intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Gary,

    So if and when a hyperinflation begins you would take that as a sign the blow off top is approaching? Makes perfect sense. Thank you.

    Do you think there's a chance that if we get a dollar hyperinflation the dollar will survive and if not what would be the new currency? Euros maybe?

    If the dollar fails would gold price remain high for an extended period or maybe even not trade for awhile?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  89. All big cycles run the gamut from extreme undervaluation to extreme overvaluation and back. Gold will be no different than any other time in history. At some point it will reach truly stupid price levels while stocks will become historically cheap.

    That's the point where you have to trade in your gold for stocks no matter what the fundamentals tell you at the time. All that will matter is that stocks are way too cheap and and gold is way too expensive.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Gary,

    Thanks for the answers. One more then I'll leave you alone.

    Why do you want bullion during a hyperinflation and how much do you want (percentage on NW)?

    ReplyDelete
  91. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  92. ALEX,

    Question for you as I know you are a very good chartist.

    Do you see a diamond topping pattern on the daily CDE chart?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19864822407

    Formed from the last 6 days?

    It looks like a symmetric diamond on the bottom part, the top part isn't as clear. Sorry I couldn't annotate.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Even Gerald Celente got whacked by this MF Global debacle!!


    I guess I did not (and still don't quite) get the true significance of MF Global but I heard that this would be looked at as Bear Stearns of 2011 in future.....


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt-mVWYvOm0&feature=player_embedded

    ReplyDelete
  94. RJ

    I guess you stumped me : ]

    I actually dont use the diamond topping pattern for a few reasons-

    1) I find that it's not very reliable UNLESS OTHER INDICATORS ARE USED TO VERIFY...and therefore can mislead one into selling.

    2)I also am of the opinion that they take weeks to form to be reliable , not just a few days. MOST people will actually see one and call it a 'head & Shoulders pattern'

    Sidenote: A TRUE H&S pattern has certain Criteria to make it 'probable'...most that I see people call are NOT True H&S- they're diamonds and take off to the upside
    :)

    Here Is A Diamond Top Pattern..that was also thought to be H&S...and broke upward,then fell later. Double the pain.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YhqIXefgbRLf

    ReplyDelete
  95. ALEX,

    Thanks for responding. The CDE one really doesn't have a "top" but I swear the bottom side looks like a symmetrical diamond bottom.

    Do you use Ichimoku clouds at all? They are intriguing me to learn more about them and I have pulled down some good info on the web. I'm just not seeing an edge from them either at this point (see many bullish patterns fail and bearish patterns reverse sharply).

    I give you major props for buying in the miners on Oct 4th. That was truly a "buying on weakness" event - the marks of a good trader.

    ReplyDelete
  96. RJ

    If I was in CDE , I wouldnt sell , unless this pattern changed, because it could be ready to break higher as a Cup/Handle

    http://www.screencast.com/t/LuO3Dy1B

    And I've seen the 'clouds' but I havent used them , really. Interesting, but I dont use them.

    And thx on Oct 4th, but I went in fully loaded and sold 1/2 on the way up , so it wasnt a full blown "Old Turkey" nerves of steel :) It just looked like an important bottom the way I look at things.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Question for anyone that uses The Linn Group and Ira Epstein's charting software...

    Each day Ira uses what I think he calls a "slow" stochastic and in one of his videos he indicates he uses a K of 5 and a D of 3 (5,3).

    However, I am not able to reproduce this using these settings, meaning my Slow STO lines look nothing like his.

    Reason I am asking is because he focuses on when the Slow STO is "embedded" or 3 consecutive days with both lines over 80 and his videos don't come out until 5 or 6pm EST, I'd like to chart in real time.

    I tried tinkering with the numbers but just can't get close, even using the futures contract instead of $gold.

    Does anyone use Ira's charting software successfully?

    ReplyDelete
  98. GARY,

    Actually my posts were being hit as spam predominately because I didn't go through the "give us a phone number" authorization of google. After a certain number or type of posts (without giving them a phone number) they kill the account. I did the phone number thing on the account this time so the 'unspam' you just did should be the last of it.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  99. GARY,

    Notice how many other people are having trouble with the stupid spam filter at blogger. People even moving blogs.

    http://www.google.com/support/forum/p/blogger/thread?tid=2f055acbcd7b6e53&hl=en

    Even after you ublocked multiple of my comments new ones are still getting routed to spam (as happened to people bitching to google there). Maybe unspamming a few more of my comments will work. Maybe not. We can try. I guess if it ultimately doesn't work I will try creating another login.

    ReplyDelete
  100. GARY,

    Looks like the trick is for you to unspam a number of my comments again and again until the filters finally learn I'm not a spammer. Usually filters like this will switch on the first or second 'unspam' click, but googles are not. So we can try it a bit loner i guess. Sorry for the hassle. I hate it too and wish you were not on blogger/google (for a whole host of reasons), but you've already weighed in on that.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Before anybody even mentions it, I don't post to ANY other blogs. I have this account and all i do is read and post here at smt.

    Wonderful smart system google created.

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  102. Swing low in the dollar index ? May we have a new daily cycle, after a shorten one ?

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  103. Dolar did cross his daily trend line on friday´s close, so i think we may be cautious about PM´s, since USD may have start a new daily cycle.

    Any thoughts ?

    Thks.

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  104. been at my desk for the last hour, Silver is behaving quite well, is it a turning point?

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  105. Wolf33,

    Read the other blog comments...sorry to hear that you are lying in bed...Hope you will feel better soon.
    Take care
    Sophia

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  106. The one day dip occurred way too early in the daily cycle for the dollar to have put in its cycle low yet. If it can continue to push and make a higher high then we will just have a right translated cycle, but one that is getting deep into the timing band and should move down strongly soon.

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  107. hey Gary,

    would I get a nice gift from you if I get a friend to subscribe to your letter?

    Just kidding, you are doing great already for all of us!!LOL

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  108. Just finished opening my first futures account with optionsXpress. Might make my first futures investment this DCL. Any advice anyone?

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  109. Wolf - I read in the premium site that you are not feeling well. Hope you feel better. I enjoy all your 'internals'.

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  110. High 5 - I think William Wallace trades gold futures and watches them closely.

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  111. doing vert little. i am quite conservative. not based off internals---will likely concentrate on TRADING Qs but could do nothing just as well.

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  112. based on others experience does gold tend to hold above the 10ma as it moves out of intermediate cylce low? seems like there are few exceptions like march 2011 when daily cycle bottoms move below this ma.

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  113. High5, I've used Optionsxpress for quite a few years but never used them to trade futures. I'd be interested to hear your experience once you get going.

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  114. Intelliblue

    Yes I enjoy WW posts and have learned alot with them.

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  115. silver looks good today. It consolidated at the 30-32 for a good while now its moved to the 34 dollar area. I think this type of action makes it less likely we will go close to #30 again even if a DCL comes in the metals. The odds are much better staying long especially if you have a good entry at the $32 level.

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  116. ok but when is timing band for dollar to move lower - do you cover this on your report ?

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  117. If this keeps up, I might get to do a little buying tomorrow morning before I split.

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  118. Of course Gary covers that in his premium report.

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  119. Just closed BAC short. Still holding march 19 EUO calls.

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  120. OK. Let me post again and see if I'm still being blocked on the system.

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  121. Wolf33,

    Best wishes for your health.

    I appreciate your posts!

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  122. Triangle on gold here last few days. We look like we are about to launch another $100 higher to 1850 or so (we have had 2 legs up so far, each about $100; I'm not an elliott guy but sometimes it has merit and the pattern of gold on this wave is classic elliott and argues for this next wave of $100)

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  123. I'll get into my trading last month or so (I was just taking a break from the board. No RAZ I didn't blow my account out by far), but I'm currently 4x long gold with about 0.5x silver (most of it futures on both) from that sharp pullback low on Nov 1. That's also where my stops are if something goes wrong.

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  124. I have zero miner stocks or gdx or etfs (for reasons I've mentioned before).

    GDX is showing zero outperformance still (on a smooth continuous ongoing extended basis) against 'straight metal' (as I measure it using 50/50 gold and silver exemplified easily on stockcharts by CEF)

    stockcharts[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:CEF&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p71061369241

    There is a slight bump up in the last 2 months on that chart, but it does not meet my (specific technical) criteria of an 'ongoing continuous clear' outperformace yet.

    And remember with the futures you get better tax treatment, better leverage, cleaner stops, 24hr trading, etc.

    So that's where I am for now.

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  125. sounds good TZ, glad to see you back in action. What was your entry point for silver?

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  126. GLD options expire this friday and the sweet spot to take out the largest group of puts and calls is $170

    (I do not look at ALL the options in existence. I simply look at what is reasonably 'close' to where GLD is trading NOW and assume the guys writing the options can move things SOME but not 'superman unlimited' amounts. I think they can move it to 170 if they try (lower) by fri, but the EU is looking like a mess and I've already said we appear to be headed higher, so I'm not so sure).

    PS: GLD of 170 would be gold of about 1750 which would be a nice round number to likewise expire at next week when the FUTURES gold options expire. Or it could be 1800 or 1850 higher (likly one of these round number we are shooting for).

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  127. Silver entry about 2% lower than right now.

    Silver is simply impossible to trade on high leverage without a profit buffer on something else.

    So what I do (same as earlier in the year) is go nuts on gold, which trades VERY well and is VERY liquid and then....if the leveragad gold position is profitable, use the profit buffer to comfortably add in silver (on pullbacks) as we climb towards blowoff tops.

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  128. Note that while silver might rebound or outperform gold here on a RECOVERY basis, it is indeed a bit 'broken' as gary indicates from the crashed parabola. Too many walking victims for silver to seriously start screaming ahead.

    stockcharts[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$GOLD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p81354632705

    Yes, silver has outperformed here and there over the last month or two, but there is no clear, smooth, continous outperformance anymore unlike the end of 2010.

    Eventually the chart will stabilize and a true direction will become clear but for now I can easily (that is the key word there, easily and more safely) get more leverage and gold futures than worrying about silver - even if it outperforms.

    For example, there woudl be no WAY i could have gotten 4x silver with a 1-2% stop (as I use when buying) without sheer luck. But it worked quite well for gold.

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  129. The GLD calls and puts is visible here:

    finance.yahoo[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/q/op?s=GLD+Options

    Scroll down and focus on the quantity of 170 and 175 calls and puts on the list. Those would be the two areas for GLD to zero in on by friday if the writers of options tried to zero lots of premium.

    the 170 = 1750
    175 = 1800 on gold;

    higher than 175 by fri would really show some strength

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  130. Thanks gary, looks like the spam filter cleared up. I still might get hit a few more times, who knows, so I appreaciate you unspamming any errant posts that might creep up.

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  131. I agree that silver was impossible to trade on leverage after the selloff happened. The volatility was insane but i did grab some physical at $29.

    I build some cushion with the Nasdaq trades and went into silver x5 on the breakout at $32. Right now there is no way i am giving up this hand until it goes towards 37-39 or i get stopped out.

    It does look broken a bit and its evident from the large volatility but with a possible move to 37-39 it is worth taking the trade.

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  132. I think silver will match or slightly exceed gold here, but on a RISK or SANITY adjusted basis gold will still be the clear security to trade.

    I'd rather hold 2x gold than 1x silver (which still wins even if silver gains 1.9x over gold).

    Gold also (still) is the risk safe asset over silver as parts of the financial system collapse.

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  133. I'll tease a bit with a comment here:

    In 78-79 there as a point in the bull mkt where there was one final sharp pullback and then gold simply took off and didn't look back.

    ABCD whatever. It didn't matter.
    Not many pullbacks either.

    I think that is where we are in the gold market. I think recognition has now set in worldwide as to how bad things are and where this is headed (massive printing and/or BK's all around). In either case you want straight metal. Not paper.

    I think that the selloff in sept was that equivalent sharp selloff shaking out a final batch of people and I think that from here on out (at least for a while until we are significantly higher) there won't be huge selloffs. Congestions? Triangles? yes. Selloffs I'm not so sure.

    That is my opinion and I'm NOT betting the farm on it. I have stops and a strategy to trade if we do go lower - as any good investor should, but it is my belief on where things are heading.

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  134. >In either case you want straight metal. Not paper.

    Sorry, that comment didn't really belong in the post.

    The post was more about how I don't think we get ABCD much anymore and how I also think we won't have the same type of pullbacks as before.

    My argument against 'paper' as per mining stocks is simply based on waiting for them to 'show me the outperformance'.

    I don't have as much of an argument against the use of 'paper' such as futures to trade and make money, although I agree that you should have a physical portion as protection through either CEF or PHYS or something like that in case things fly apart.

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  135. At Ease,
    >>Question, does anyone buy gold/silver from Perth Mint of from goldmoney.com?

    I don't know if you got an answer to this. I HAD precious metals at Perth Mint. It was unallocated, which scared me, so I cashed out there and rebought with another company, storing some in Britsh Columbia and some in HK. These ARE allocated and I am supposed to be able to have the exact purchases I made shipped to me or I can pick them up. As far as Goldmoney.com is concerned, I do have a small account with them which is currently in gold. It is NOT allocated but the guy who runs it, Jim Turk, is a good guy. Also, it is super easy and fast to sell the metals and transfer to your personal account if you need the money. No more than 2 days total.

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  136. Gary,
    >>But the spreads and liquidity are much better in GLD than in physical gold.

    I don't know what you mean by the spreads being much better. If you buy a 1-oz gold coin, you will pay a premium of maybe 3.5% and on the sale, probably receive a tad under spot price. If you buy a kilo, you probably will pay just under 1% of spot. Of course, there are fees for storage or if you have it delivered, you need to keep it safe, which is a bit of headache, but not nearly as much as with silver.

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  137. Which company allows you to store in BC and HK?

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  138. Leilani,
    Well, you have to pay a storage fee, of course. But unlike most other depositories that I have researched, this one does NOT base the storage fee on a % of the value of the metal. Try www.goldsilver.com

    ReplyDelete
  139. Wolf,
    I read on the premium site that you are going to see an alternative Doc for your condition? I am curious as to what kind of alternative you are investigating? I just found out last week that I have a not so nice medical condition and am also exploring methods outside the mainstream.

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  140. Blogger wolf33 said...

    clne like a rocket today.

    November 15, 2011 11:35 AM

    Dont firget PEIX and BIOF :)

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  141. I will look into it. Thanks Jake!

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  142. Wolf33,

    Me an my family are praying for you friend, stay strong. Endure.

    Dont give up on trying to find the right Doc's, Where are you located?

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  143. At Ease,

    A few years back, I wanted to buy gold and store gold via Perth. I wired a relatively large sum to them. I waited until the money was in my Perth acct so i can placed a buy order. Guess what? They couldn't find my money. It took them over a week to credit my account after the funds were wired. It scared me a bit. Perth is bit of a distance from California. So, I had them wired the money back. I also have an account with GoldMoney with nothing in it. I hestitate with GoldMoney only because the storage fees are high. It is based on a the price of gold and it is a certain percentage.

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  144. I do not suggest using the perth mint.

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  145. Leilani,
    The storage fees for gold at Goldmoney are not high. They are something like .18% per year. They are a bit higher for silver, but not too bad.

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  146. Wolf,
    I read on the premium site that you are going to see an alternative Doc for your condition? I am curious as to what kind of alternative you are investigating? I just found out last week that I have a not so nice medical condition and am also exploring methods outside the mainstream.

    I have decided to make this my last stand. Hope like acres of diamonds. The one procedure is QRNT. Quite new and I have luckily one of the best. But he does a lot else and talks to another that has a patient similiar to me. Do a lot with just vials related to body parts or systems like lymphatic etc. Besides he is a great chiropractor for adjustments which I always need from time to time. The goal is to get the brain communication to do whatt it is suppose to do. Obviously one has to get the immune system ---adrenals---liver---etc doing what they are suppose to do. Like I say this is it for me. I have been more places than one could ever imagine. I am after the first of the year go back on a gluten/sugar free diet. I also have 2 Bio Mats to help with pain. A Rife machine---seems to settle me down. I am a big believer in Himilayn Salt. Should mention that Chiro is using some new supplements(herbs) that make me stronger. Other similar outdated NAET-JMT---NMT is newer. If you do not mind, could you let me know where in general you live.
    Please feel free to chat---as I would never ignore but keep in mind I might miss your post so do it again.
    I will keep you in my prayers.

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  147. WW---Thank-you--likewise. Iowa

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  148. Alex---I will always look at your stocks. I think some how you led me SAGE----Been quite a stock.

    Thanks for your posting-UR great.

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  149. Danno said...

    "Europe moves into pole position to dominate the world"

    Europe is not going to dominate the world. Aside from the worst demographics in the history of man (some European countries will lose a third of their population by the middle of the century), they have too many structural problems (labor inflexibility for one) to compete with Asia and the United States.

    Gary said...

    "It's probably too late to jump on oil now."

    Long WTIC / Short Brent should still have several dollars to go as the premium disappears. This was caused (in part) by a lack of storage at Cushing, which is slowly getting resolved.

    Shalom Bernanke said...

    "If each central bank prints the equivalent of $2 trillion in their own currency next week, the index would stay the same"

    That's completely wrong. The differences in the sizes of the monetary bases means that $2 trillion from the Bank of Canada or the Sveriges Riksbank would affect the relative values of their currencies far more than $2 trillion from the Fed or the ECB.

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  150. i am leaving now---not so great night. But did a lot of deep coughing which is good.

    ReplyDelete
  151. ALEX said...
    Blogger wolf33 said...

    clne like a rocket today.

    November 15, 2011 11:35 AM

    Dont firget PEIX and BIOF :)

    November 15, 2011 12:47 PM

    WOW! am looking at new technical system---will add. got any more?

    ReplyDelete
  152. Thanks for the reply Wolf. I hope it is successful for you. I am in Georgia, buy am looking at receiving treatment in California. I will know more on Thursday, but I am hoping I can wait until the first of the year before starting any treatment. I suspect it will be two or three months living in Cali undergoing treatment. I suppose the won't be so bad except being away from the family.

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  153. NAT----I went to a place in Walnut Creek---years ago. It worked but could not bring back. It was Interractive Light Therapy---Think called Post Trauma ?

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  154. Interesting wolf. The place I am looking at is in LA. It will be Hyperthermia treatment with low dose radiation. As I said I will find out definitively by Thursday.

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  155. Alex, Do you think the gap from yesterday to today if anything to worry about on PEIX? Thanks!

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  156. JaketheFlake and Leilani,
    Thanks for your answers on Perth, I was reading a book by Peter Schiff and he recommended buying through is company from Perth Mint or what he expects to be a common practice in banking Turks site goldmoney.com as places to buy gold to hold. I think for now, I will stick with what works, Gary. I have some physical just for Peace of Mind if all hell breaks lose, but otherwise, I think everyone is out to make money on fears. I think Gary is the only one with the smarts to know how to make the money on the fears in this market to be set for the future.

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  157. High 5, Rest up, it will keep you up all night. :)

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  158. at ease,

    I've been warned! LOL. I plan to start off safe and small but for now am still studying the ins and outs. Have you been at it long....any good books or sources of info?

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  159. High 5,
    From experience. Start small, single contract (I only buy the mini gold). Buy at bottoms (cycle lows) twice I have bought the tops anticipating the big run. Nope. had to wait for it to come back up or cut the losses at the higher high. If you happen to buy too high and it drops, don't panic it's a bull market, just wait it will come back up. or cut your losses as small as you can and just get out at the higher high. Most of all, make sure you have a cushion, twice as much as you are trading. I got a margin call by buying a top with not enough cushion. So I think I have covered all the rookie mistakes. Other than that, make sure when you buy you know your exit either way. I don't use the stops unless I just want to go to sleep and not watch all night. JUST BUY AT THE CYCLE BOTTOMS and you should be fine. Made a good amount on the last run up. I sit for weeks without trading in this account. Just wait for the cycle bottom set ups.

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  160. High 5, No good books found as yet, just watch the contract moves. If I have questions, I ask WW. :)

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  161. at ease,

    Thank you for the advice, much appreciated.

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  162. at ease:

    Helpful stuff. Couple questions for you if you don't mind:

    * you mention a cushion of 2x what's being traded -- do you mean 2x the margin requirements or 2x the value of the contract? I assume you mean the latter but am then wondering how you got a margin call even when buying at the top?

    * what dates do you target, especially considering you're just looking to buy and sit vs. trade in and out? do you buy further out with the goal of holding through a daily/intermediate cycle or buy front month and rollover each month?

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  163. smt_troll,
    If you are trying to predict the future it might profit you to read the book famous for predicting the future. Europe is rising, not falling. The middle east is rising, not imploding. The USA will enter decline sooner or later as we are absolutely addicted to cheap oil and cheap oil is in decline. The crisis in Europe is not a real crisis. It's a manufactured power grab. Demographic problems or not, the old Roman Empire is rising again.

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  164. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  165. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  166. A diversion topic - fyi a Japanese company has made a probe that attaches to the new iPhones that is a geiger counter, so that one can measure radiation wherever you are at. Sign of the times.

    http://www.japantoday.com/category/technology/view/firm-makes-iphone-geiger-counter-for-worried-japanese

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  167. You sure have come a long way using TA now Gary,, as someone who used to dismiss it completely as just "squiggly lines on a chart" as you use to refer to it. Good for you,, dont agree with either of your analysis on CRB or the dollar tho. Glad your still at it though, Its been pretty profitable these last few years, and seems you've done well.

    Best,

    Plunger

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  168. TA is always my least important tool. Cycles and sentiment must first confirm before I ever even go to the charts.

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  169. smt troll,

    My observation is not "completely wrong". I was not arguing where the dollar goes relative to other confetti. My point is that if all central banks print more simultaneously, the USD index is not nearly as important as what the implications are for metals.

    The fact is the USD index is less relevant every day, especially when trading gold. This has been the case for some time now. If you believe that watching dollar futures is giving you an edge, I'm all ears.

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  170. at ease:

    In terms of contract dates, I take it you bought the Dec. contract around the recent cycle low in Oct., so you purchased 2 months out? Any other helpful tips about how to think about what dates to select?

    I understand there's no theta decay as with options but you do often have contango in futures based on implied borrowing/interest rates that are priced in above and beyond spot price, and which decays until maturity.

    Also, I'm guessing that the further out the less often you'll have to roll futures over assuming you don't actually want to take delivery upon contract expiry.

    Any other experience or caveats you have is much appreciated!

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  171. USD making new cycle highs as silver down more than 1.2% right now...looks like the USD still has some fight in her

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  172. Alf Field speaks!

    "I have come out of retirement for this one off, once only, speech to warn that the good ship 'Life As We Know It' is sinking.

    Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way."

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/

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  173. Also, Alf Field considers the possibility for a correction in gold prior to its big move up:

    "At the date of writing (7 Nov 2011), gold has recovered to $1767, which is a 61.8% retracement of the loss from $1913 to $1531 (-$382), a typical size for this type of recovery. That leaves open the possibility (40% probability?) that gold will have another dip to test the target areas mentioned. The higher the price goes above $1767, the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531."

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  174. Ver,
    I am still a rookie. Sorry, no other insights.

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  175. Gold is now below the cycle trendline and looks like it may be ready to dip into a DCL, if so, looking for a bottom on the 50sma at 1730ish. Below the 50sma is the 30sma at 1713.

    ReplyDelete

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