Instead gold formed a double bottom at $1600 and yesterday confirmed a trend change to a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
As is usually the case the miners played follow the leader and reversed their downtrend also.
It is now clear that gold put in an intermediate degree bottom on September 26. The double bottom is a much stronger basing pattern then a V-shaped rebound and should launch a test of the $2000 level at some point during this intermediate cycle.
.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYou have a great ability to change your mind when facts change. Best thing about you and your service.
Thanks,
Alex
Where's Eamonn?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteAdmission that you were wrong is a great strength. Kudos.
Sounds like you picked the break though and saved face for subscribers.
I think the COT was a big telling factor on where Gold was headed. So too is the soon to be combined efforts of the FED and ECB.
Have been watching and holding steady.
All fiats are in trouble.
Q : Do we see the retracement to 1900-2000 level as the final c-wave move and then a consolidation for most of 2012 (at say 1700-1800), before the exponential move? Or a much deeper d-wave to take it down to 1450 after this cycle/wave is complete. Seems the 1600 level was well supported ...it has bounced off that level on several occasions.
Could very well have been the last opportunity to buy gold cheap.
To me this is not going to be a short term play...comms and mms will be restricted in their shorts ..worth keep an eye on the lcns for both au and ag.
I have this feeling that the material nature of the future cash printing of EUR/USA/CHINA will create a mania in PM's.
Great reading your perspectives and balancing it up with my own views. Staying the course.
Question for all: is there a way for me to trade on Gary's portfolio on the Australian stock exchange? I'm thinking of the ETF's, gold stocks, etc. Are there enough equivalents on the Aussie market for me to do the trading there, or would I need to, pretty much, for the North American time zone?
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteGary, I echo others in saying it's great to change course when facts change.
ReplyDeleteI'm still troubled on cycles though - I don't see how they are reliable. Take this change - did cycles support the old scenario? I assume they did. If so, how does one reconcile price action with cycles if they aren't complimentary? Price trumps cycles? If so, why use cycles at all, and focus only on price, I wonder?
Thanks.
.
ReplyDeleteThe Green Family,
ReplyDeleteI have a brokerage account in Australia and I will tell you one thing. The possibilities on trading are much more limited than on US markets. For example, there is no such thing as a bear market ETF, to my knowledge. If i want to bet that gold or the ASX 200 is going to go down, I can't do it on the ASX. Would have to use options or sell short. But they do have a fairly healthy number of long ETFs. You can find them on the ASX website. On gold miners, of course, the underlying stocks will be those trading on the ASX rather than in No. America, though (I think).
The Green Family - have you tried using Interactive Brokers? I am in the US, but broker allows us to trade in any stock market. You have to specify the markets you want to trade in during the application process.
ReplyDeletei am long gold in general, but i favor that this one will be a fakeout. If it gets significantly above the 50 day I might start scaling in.
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteActually cycles are what allowed me to spot the bottom. The fact that gold was nearing the timing band for a cycle low and formed a swing low at 1600 instead of accelerating to the downside was a big clue that gold was going to form a double bottom instead of continuing down.
Cycles are an excellent tool for telling one when to step on the gas and when to coast, but they aren't a perfect timing tool, especially for spotting tops.
One just has to know the limitations of their tools and use them for what they are good for. In the case of cycles they're mostly good for spotting bottoms.
gary
ReplyDeleteany similarities between this action and the double bottom in august and september of 2008. during that one we had a few rocket days up and then it consolidated for month and rolled back over. how did the cycles line up during that one
Mike,
ReplyDeleteWe have all the odds stacked in our favor in the precious metals markets right now. Instead of trying to find reasons to doubt the move, you should be finding reasons to trust it.
gary
ReplyDeletei'm in gold, silver, and miners now. i am just amazed though at how closely stocks gold and dollar have tracked 2008 path to this point so i'm just trying to avoid a repeat
Mr M or any options person.
ReplyDeleteFirst I'm not buying leverage or options just asking. What is a butterfly spread using options.
Thx
potential deal on greece reached. dollar selling off
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteStocks appear to be in the initial stages of a bear market but still have a long way to go before the next four year cycle low. Whether or not the dollar rally resumes will probably determine how the future plays out.
Gold however looks nothing like 2008.
...and for the umpteenth time, the D wave has been aborted. Maybe we should just forget about this so caled D wave aye Gary?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go on record and say you're wrong about being wrong. :)
Gold is still a short, as is silver.
Dollar at 75.83
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWow, dollar is getting trashed, this is unreal!
ReplyDeleteEurope reached a deal... this is such a joke.
ReplyDeleteNuclear bombs going off in the currency markets and gold is quiet as a mouse both in price and volume.
ReplyDeleteAre any of you leveraged longs here nervous or happy about this action?
Gold digesting gains for a bit, or something else?
Oh man, I never thought the dollar would breach the 200 dma.
ReplyDeleteThis is a biblical disgrace.
Margin changes on heating oil.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/pQSYGlJx
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p14711219177&a=247160095&listNum=1
ReplyDeleteWill have pierced it good on the daily chart and can't make it through on the Weekly.....
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteusd at 75.79
ReplyDelete200 dma is at 75.77
Can this pig pull a McGyver, anyone?
Matuselah,
ReplyDeleteare you just giving an opinion about shorting the metals or do you actually have an open short position?
RJ, gold closed the daily gap today, trading down to the 170x range.
ReplyDeleteThis pattern is one of 2 things, a bull trap with the price waiving new recovery highs just a moment ago, and letting all come running before the floor falls out, or equally probably the mezzanine of the first move of a series of three, with the next being nearly equal to the last, and the one after being the blow off high.
So, a number like 1800 is an easy call as level 2, and then one more step up, possibly in an hourly parabola to the 2000 range. At that last leg of the parabola, or in this case, stepped pyramid, gold will blow off.
I who am cautious in my public predictions just went long, even at this higher high as I sense this market has not exploded up, yet, and the 2nd will beget the 3rd.
Slumdog,
ReplyDeleteMany, many thanks.
Things are so bad in silicon valley for local governments they are proposing a parcel tax to fix the roads and streets.
ReplyDeleteWhat next, charge for a fire truck to respond to a house fire?
SF Giants Fan,
ReplyDeleteIf it's not already happening, it's coming, charging for local services in addition to local taxes.
As we celebrate the "solution" to the Euro debt crisis, stocks will become seriously overbought (again) tomorrow according to the Mclellan oscillator. It worked off some of the condition on Tuesday and this morning only to shoot for the moon again this afternoon. Continue to look for some kind-of reversion to the mean (0) - of course, for those short, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but it seems we might be reaching a significant top in stocks very soon (longer than a 1 day selloff at least).
ReplyDeleteWe may get an ideal entry point for a starter short position if stocks gap up on the open, which could play out as a "sell the news" reversal to put a bow around all the other signals we're seeing (half-cycle timing, bullish sentiment, and selling on strength).
ReplyDeleteOf course, as always, the key is controlling position size and risk in case the dollar falls apart and stocks keep running.
ReplyDeleteGold bull: surprises to the upside.
ReplyDeleteMarket Bear: surprises to the down side.
I think this is going to be retirement nirvana until DOW 12,400.
things dont look too happy for the dollar
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping that spot gold backtests the breakout of (roughly) $1700, so I can buy.
ReplyDeleteThough the situation in Europe sounds good today, no way can debt there nor in the US can disappear so easily. When folks are in debt, they stop buying. So I'm staying away from the S&P for now. I think Gary's bear market scenario will play out.
So instead of wasting my time on the S&P, there's better hunting in gold, me thinks.
Bill,
ReplyDeleteI have the same view...European banks stocks will get a boost from here, but that's about it
PMs seem to be a safer bet.
ver, good call regarding the Euro going higher from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteCrisis is over, everyone go home :)
ReplyDeleteSophia, when you guy gold, do you use the ETF's like GLD, IAU, etc? Or do you focus on ETF's that have physical, like CEF, GTU, or PHYS?
ReplyDeleteAnd if you don't mind, are you looking at miners via GDX? That fall for AEM really shook me, so for now I'll stick with pure gold. RGLD looks good ... still researching the company though.
Thank you.
oops - typo - meant "when you buy gold..."
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSpidey sense tells me true dollar bottom may come within days. If gold shows signs of exhaustion I will dump.
ReplyDeleteGold chart looks good if you squint just right. So does a 5 dollar whore.
@Razvan
ReplyDeleteI have initiated a short position via a leveraged short ETF. I will be adding to that short position as certain criteria are met, namely the DX dollar index is above 77.55
I think that as long as spot gold stays above $1700 it's a buy, as it'd be a pullback. Gary's charts show it all quite perfectly.
ReplyDeleteIf price closes below $1700 I'd sell, as I don't have the kahuna's to hold down to $1600.
A reminder that COT looks good for GL too - OE at multi-year lows.
See http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png
er, typo again - meant GC (not GL)
ReplyDeleteDanno, in my short 6 yrs as a trader, I've noticed that gold and the $USD aren't always in sync. So I myself no longer look at the $USD to determine what gold will do. I watch gold to trade gold. For what it's worth. ;-)
ReplyDeleteSophia,
ReplyDeleteI guess your going to have to wait a bit longer to buy the Dax cheaper :)
Bill,
ReplyDeleteI know what you mean. The dollar and gold can move out of sync for periods. But eventually, they can regain their inverse relationship. This re-syncing usually happens at the worst possible moment for those who gave up on the whole idea. (Speaking from experience.)
Danno, definitely could be. I'm seeing the same as you in the $USD, and I was hoping for a C wave down in $GOLD, complimenting that. But the breakout in $GOLD turned me around. Gary's cycle magic confirms. Have to wait and see!
ReplyDeleteYep. A lot of wait and see here. A bit early to tell either way IMO. Good luck!
ReplyDeleteSir William Wallace, what say you about gold today here and now, sir?
ReplyDeleteFWIW... not saying PMs can't move higher here. I am still 100% long. Just saying, I'm keeping one eye on the dollar, especially if PMs start to feel sluggish.
ReplyDeleteWhat a day for gold to take a breather... when the dollar is down 1%!
ReplyDeleteJust woke up.
ReplyDeleteLooks like all worlds problems solved. Pain for the shorts today. I will guess SnP SoS # will be big today.
Looks like my fat red engulfing candle theory in UUP resulted in an accurate sell signal.
ReplyDeleteSilver's rise shows alternating shifts in market interest. Danno, this ain't sluggish. It's marking time, inviting shorts to propel gold higher. It's so easy to short now as after all it's not performing.
ReplyDeleteThis is a moment of no clarity, but from what the markets are showing especially oil, the game of fiat is showing massive degradation. The bailout won't work, again. So, what's left? I deal in polyester as a customer and am at a trade show. I'll alert vendors to stock up now. Hyperinflation has finally been dealt a full house.
exited gold position just now around 1730. hope to buy it lower. i don't know. i think this rally is real but it's got a lot of clock to run off before it makes sense.
ReplyDeletestocks, if they're ever going to go down again, have to start turning down nowish. extreme buy divergence today, e.g. between close yesterday and now there are almost no new buyers.
same dollar. buy divergence.. but there's been buy divergence for a freakin' week straight now.
Slumdog,
ReplyDeleteI did not say PMs were sluggish yet.
Bill,
ReplyDeleteGold looks good, the last few nights it's been sold those dips are being bought. Everyone knows I was always bearish under the 10sma daily and bullish over the 75sma. The only over head resistance is the 50sma now, unless this move is not for real gold should rip through, may give a bit of a headache like the 75 did, but it shouldn't reverse gold significantly like the 75 did if this move is real.
WW,
ReplyDeleteWhat are you going to do with your SPXU?
Gold acting like burnt poop on a stick today.
ReplyDeleteNo worries on gold. It's where your savings should be anyway. Keep assets parked there for the next few years, and use margin for you day to day trading. :)
ReplyDeleteNow that Europe is fixed, investors can turn their attention back to the US's woes. Did anybody ever really believe they wouldn't print mo' money?
ReplyDeleteI realize that "solving the european debt crisis" is a big headline however its difficult to reconcile with the huge SOS numbers yesterday, Monday and several days last week. Will be interesting to see if, or how long, this opening gap up lasts.
ReplyDeleteDanno,
ReplyDeleteIf you are constantly distracted by the daily wiggles you will never be able to ride the bull. I suggest you switch to the weekly charts so you can see what's really going on.
You guys are paying too much attention to gold while silver has been getting its groove back. It is starting to look more like it was early in the year.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the 50% haircut ain't enough, as Greek bonds are suggesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-bonds-trading-expectation-substantial-further-haircuts
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI admit I screwed up buying AGQ at the top when you warned me not to. Since then I have been working very hard and doing quite well.
I believe the dollar is going to bottom soon.
UUP is not $USD of course, but UUP just closed all of its gaps. Just sold UUP puts for a 41% gain (in 2 days).
silver through $34
ReplyDeleteraz is correct imo, its time to start re balancing some gold into silver, currently at 55/1 its too stretched. history suggests this kind of wide margin wont last, its time for silver to start playing catch up
ReplyDeleteSB,
ReplyDeleteI took some of the SPXU off yesterday at the 78.6% fib level (which turned out to be the lows), small loss there...I had a feeling that would be strong support and wanted to lighten up a bit. Holding the rest, see what happens now that we tagged the 200sma. Im up over 80% since the august low, so giving back 10% wont kill me.
SPX slightly penetrated the 50 week moving average today, past bear market rallies have been stopped here...see what happens.
ReplyDeleteWhere is Beanie, today is his day to shine?
Now they're coming for the miners. :)
ReplyDeleteCorrection. UUP still has one small gap it could fill.
ReplyDeletezsl got killed , silver need a break here..
ReplyDeleteadmitting being wrong is a sign of strength!
ReplyDeleteUpdated thoughts on GLD. Any advice welcome as I have very little idea what I am doing and can use all the help I can get! lol (Actually, that's not funny.)
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04589661088&a=246887053
I'm having a hard time resisting a short on stocks right here. Clear touch of a major neckline this morning: http://imgur.com/ssLeo.jpg
ReplyDeleteain nothing stopping the silver train till $50
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeletesorry, just got back..
I use futures for Gold
W2,
ReplyDeleteyeah, you are damned right, the Dax is like a bar of soap!! 5.5% up today!!
Gary is a smart guy but missing ingredient #1 to success in markets: MARKETS ARE MANIPULATED ... BY DESIGN
ReplyDeleteThe model portfolio is up almost 20% just since July. Am I missing an ingredient?
ReplyDeleteThe belief that manipulation is the cause of ones success or failure is nothing more than shifting blame for ones failure.
ReplyDeleteThat is not a recipe for success, it is an excuse for failure.
gosh, people, you are tough...
ReplyDeleteyou are made at Gary if he goes out too early of a trade, and you are made if he is making money like a maniac in 3 days! What do you WANT?
Gary
ReplyDeleteI had bought up some GDXJ in some of my family's accounts, It's not moving as well as lets say GDX, etc is there a reason for that? Should I sell one position for the other or should I not worry about that?
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteI'd sit tight. On any given day GDXJ can outperform GDX, say after a junior is bought out by a major.
Rather than get concerned which is the best train, focus on staying on the bull. The next test of your fortitude is right around the corner (always is), and more important than which etf will be to resist the urge to sidestep a pullback. That is where the results will come from, your conviction.
Yeah Gary,
ReplyDeleteGet it together Man!! Unbelievable!! What does it take to make some people happy?
I'm mixed, with some juniors, some majors, some gold miners, some silver miners, and of course, physical and PHYS.
ReplyDeletesophia, we have a right to be tough. Over the past few years I've only made a few thousand times the price of Gary's yearly subscription by following his advice. I consider that woeful underperformance and I'm not sure I will renew.
ReplyDeletedoes anybody know what Gann360 is thinking of the S&P?
ReplyDeleteHarry,
ReplyDeletesame here in 1 year.. :-)
not contesting your good calls and success... but that missing that ingredient can make you much much better at calling tops and bottoms even ahead of time ... example ... the markets were drawing picture perfect charts just like before 2008 crash... for me that believes in market manipulation that was a clear TRAP, while everyone is screaming 2008 all over again, it was clear to me there will be no crash ... i don't blame market, manipulation for my mistakes, i always blame myself for not seeing it right ... but the markets ARE manipulated ... and I'm up few hundred percent in PMs since 2002/2003
ReplyDeleteThanks Shalom. I have no problem adding in to weakness but I can't chase for anything. I'll just sit tight.
ReplyDeleteSilver fever is very contagous so i encourage people to get on the bus while its getting up to speed :)
ReplyDeleteSomething the bulls will like...
ReplyDeleteMany times when the MACD Signal Line crosses the zero mark, there is an explosion in price.
Go to StockCharts.com and set the Slow Stochastics indicator to: 5,3
We're close.
Sophia,
ReplyDeleteText "Gann360" to 86444 (Twitter UK short SMS). Thinks SPX to 1279/80 then 1287/88.
Supermalc,
ReplyDeletemany thanks!do I need a twitter account?
sophia,
ReplyDeleteFollow Gann here:
http://twitter.com/#!/search/gann360
Sophia,
ReplyDeleteJust follow him at @GANN360 on twitter.
Supermalc,
ReplyDeletewow, just did it, I have a twitter account! that is so cool!
Does it mean that I could have the messages from Gary as well??
thanks Driver and Elaine!
ReplyDeleteI am new to that technology, this is great!
The strength from this market is unreal. If we're getting taken up high just to fall back down again, I'll tell ya man, a good job is being done on making me feel like I'm missing out on something. It doesn't feel like the SPX will ever fall and it doesn't feel like the USD will ever bottom.
ReplyDeleteSophia,
ReplyDeleteYes. Those countries that support short SMS means no need for twitter or tweetymail. So, text "garysavage1" and while you're at it, "TradePoly" to 86444.
Sure would be cool if the miners would respond to the POG.
ReplyDeleteBB crash trade on the USD
ReplyDeleteHey Everyone!
ReplyDeleteI have been lurking for a while now and trying to get a grip on this market (yeah right!).
I currently just trade my 401k account and am in cash now (money market), but move in and out as I spot danger or opportunity. I use Vanguard SP500 index mostly.
I wanted to see if I could get some thoughts about jumping back into the market right now. The dollar just moved down below the 200dma and the SnP has broken some key resistance heading up. I understand the danger to the downside, but do not want to miss any major upside if possible.
My spidey senses tell me to get back in, but that is usually the first red flag for me :)
Any thoughts will be appreciated!
Whohoo!
ReplyDeletedamn shouldn't have sold my gold already, left about $20 on the table.
ReplyDeletewill the dollar ever rally? sheesh. hopefully it will put a dent in gold on the attempt at least.
taking a flier UPRO short here.
if stocks just keep going i really like the solar etf TAN which i bought earlier this week. up about 10% today.
At Ease, LOL!
ReplyDeleteYou Go Girl!
Gold ripped right through the 50sma as expected with the dollar croaking...free of all MA resistance now.
ReplyDeleteThis thing with the dollar is out of control. This could get brutal. What do I mean `could`?
ReplyDeleteDang
ReplyDeleteFollow Gary= make money
That's the whole story
If you don't have a position yet I would stop waiting bc this move is for real. Train is leaving. Still early in the cycle to get on board.
ReplyDeleteIf the D Wave was aborted... then what cycle are we in?
ReplyDeleteIt feels good to be making some money, even if it is for a few days. I.e. if there is a profit taking or pull back, I may add more, since I am not at the Model Portfolio's allocation yet.
ReplyDeletethis is the 'chi' wave! the one that gives shorts a religious experience
ReplyDeleteSo how do we know the 'chi' wave won't be aborted?
ReplyDeleteI would think it is the A wave. D wave started but didn't get as low as predicted - was "aborted." Maybe?
ReplyDeleteRemember this?
ReplyDeleteDanno said...
Hmm. If that was the completion of a H&S top in the USD (may have just broken the neckline) we could see USD 73 and GLD tag its 50 ma. Just a thought.
October 21, 2011 7:54 AM
Told ya I've been trying harder!
I don't doubt Gary. I just need think things through for myself. After all he is a crazy rock climber. What if I need to do this without him?!?
Thanks Aaron. Though I didn't do jack about trading against it, trying to stay focused on PMs.
ReplyDeleteThat said, check out SoS. SPY on with over 400M in block trades! Perhaps it's finally time to nibble...
There may be $USD support at 74.25
ReplyDeleteMy USD H&S chart from Oct 21
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49707350432&a=243271879
Is this the biggest SoS on SPY ever?
ReplyDeleteanybody buying nflx here??
ReplyDeleteW2,
ReplyDeletethought I saw one earlier this year over 500.
April 18th 2008 - SOS -1162
ReplyDeleteWhen I checked about an hour ago, SPY wasn't even on the SOS list.
ReplyDelete340.30 very large number
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWith today's action in stocks across the globe, do you still think 2012 will be one of the worst year's in human history?
Retail (RTH) broke the all time highs earlier in the year and now attempting another push to all time highs again. The data/action hasn't confirmed any of the doomsday scenario yet. In a matter of fact, this recovery might pick up steam in 2012.
These SOS hasn't worked out very well over the past 3 weeks.
ReplyDeletewmp,
ReplyDeleteHaven't seen you around for a bit but if you rad this, I finished The Grapes Of Wrath and I have concluded that it sucks to be poor and Steinbeck was a perv.
>"Retail (RTH) broke the all time highs earlier in the year and now attempting another push to all time highs again. The data/action hasn't confirmed any of the doomsday scenario yet. In a matter of fact, this recovery might pick up steam in 2012."
ReplyDeleteDo you equate inflation influenced stock prices with 'recovery'? Do you see things as being better than in 2009 for the average citizen if prices just keep increasing?
Dang,
ReplyDeleteBig money aren't made when the danger (Greece & ECB) has cleared the horizon. Big money is usually lost this way.
With risk come big reward. The trade was to buy into the fear 1-2 month ago and sell today (Big SPY SOS number).
Movax2,
ReplyDeleteJust like the gold bugs, you think there is some conspiracy going on in the retails sector? Have you seen the retail sales figure? What about earnings from all the major retailers?
Inflation? What inflation?
ReplyDeleteHousing which is one of the biggest cost is still trending down.
It's time to throw my Pennant-with-a-pullback theory out the window. Price has moved too high.
ReplyDeleteJust heard back from the MAN who wrote the book 'Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns' [$74.84 on Amazon 1,032 pages]
Quote:
"This looks to me like a new trend. The price has moved above the top of the congestion region and it seems to be heading higher."
EricH
ReplyDeleteDo you eat a house everyday?
So is the dollar officially dead yet?
ReplyDeleteNo complaints today, think of the days when the trades were against most of us,especially last May. Coached basketball for many years, Gary is an excellent coach and days like these are why we play this game.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy this, the plan is coming together.
Dollar,
ReplyDeleteone more short-lived head fake to the upside, then adios greengo
Panic selling in the dollar, panic buying in stocks and PMs. Sounds like a recipe for a washout of weak hands over the next few days. Take advantage of the dips.
ReplyDeleteEric, if in 1999, you thought 2000 would be a terrible year in tech, as I did, then you'd have looked like an idiot for quite a few months, like I did (over 9 months). By March of '00, I had missed the final 25% of the blowoff top. A year later, I was sitting over 100% higher than my friends.
ReplyDeleteThe big question to me is the next few months -- further rally before reality sets in? If so, I want to be in for a while, but I want to be out early for the 4-yr low to materialize. Just not absurdly early. And if a hyperinflationary scenario develops, I want to be all in, as cash will be worse.
I haven't looked into sales figures, but sales increasing is the wanted effect of inflationary policies. Unfortunately, this is often driven more from fear of holding cash than desire for goods. BTW I wasn't being rhetorical, I do wonder what your answers are - do you really see a big improvement in the average American's life over the past few years? You think a retail stat means good times ahead? Just curious.
ReplyDeleteThank you EricH (and others).
ReplyDeleteI know I missed the jump, but would like to catch a trend for a short time period if possible and not have my head cut off in the guillotine.
To me, it looks like I could catch a wave up for a short time. But I don't always see around the corners too well and have been spanked on more than one occasion.
I am a bit confuse on how to interpret the SoS & BoW (from the WSJ). If a stock is on the top of the SoS list, can we expect a drop in that stock in the next day or so?
Thank you very much!
The last monthly COT report was spot on.
ReplyDeleteJames
Dang,
ReplyDelete"I am a bit confuse on how to interpret the SoS & BoW (from the WSJ). If a stock is on the top of the SoS list, can we expect a drop in that stock in the next day or so?"
As Gary has noted before, SOS is mainly applicable to SPY ETF. It doesn't mean that the price will drop but it may. It just means that there are less people buying at higher prices than lower prices intraday.
Took off the SPXU at a break of the head and shoulders neckline. 10% loss on the market short. Never ever ever short a bull market...lol
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteNow that the dollar is below the 200 dma, would you say that the dollar will break this year's low?
James
Would be nice to see silver in the 37.50-38.00$ dollar range.
ReplyDeletethere was one (1) huge sell in SPY that i think is probably accounting for the entire SoS number. it was around 12:22 this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteeither it was a hell of a test for demand (PASS!) or some sort of statement since people managing that type of dough usually sneak in and out.
Mr. M..
ReplyDeleteRe: Steinbeck's a perv: That made me laugh out loud, literally!
A whole new meaning to the "Got Milk?" slogan aye? :)
wmp,
ReplyDeleteSome milk mustache that would be!
There are some other passages in TGOW and Of Mice and Men and even Cannery Row that lead me to that conclusion, it was after all the 1930's.
What's conversation like on the premium site? Doesn't seem like too much effort being expended here. Don't know about you, but I want to make some stinking money. I will even take $100 bills that rode a thousands miles strapped to a camel's groin.
ReplyDeleteJohn,
ReplyDeleteYou can't a house, but you can certainly eat more with less money used for housing. You think the retail numbers over the past 2 years are fudged?
Market is ready to blow the roof off.
ReplyDeleteW2,
ReplyDeleteyou get the feeling this thing is going to take a break, say tomorrow, catch it`s breath for the weekend, and push higher next week? It would make a lot of sense to fill todays gap tomorrow. Ain`t gonna happen though, is it? Mr M, what do you think?
Haven't seen > 400 on SPY in a long time. WOW
ReplyDeleteSomeone call 911 for the $USD
86d4life,
ReplyDeleteWhile I don't KNOW what will happen, I would not be surprised at a higher open tomorrow.
Erich,
ReplyDeleteoh certainly fudged.
I bought a house 15 years ago: My payment is till $1500/month, the value of the house can go up or down, my payment is the same, so once you buy your house, it no longer affect you purchasing power, except for property taxes which are minimal. So as long as you don't buy during the mania, you're ok.
To include housing prices coming down in the inflation numbers is a joke ... I'm sure no one bothered factoring housing prices during the mania in the inflation calculation ... every reason to rig the numbers and hide the robbery
SF,
ReplyDeletepretty impressive actually. Had to go back to about the first of the year to find a losing day like this. Even though it`s good for our accounts now, it almost feels kind of spooky.
There are a bunch of earnings reports coming out tonight, that might sway the mood a bit but they are not the heavy ones.
ReplyDeleteDanno
ReplyDeleteU not a subscriber?
What percentage of Americans actually own a home? If you purchase a house 15 years ago, my guess is you can sell your home and make a profit.
ReplyDeleteDanno,
ReplyDelete10$ offer, take it it's the price of a few Big Macs.
EricH,
ReplyDeleteDepending where you live!
I live in Canada and our house is paid off.
One Big Mac by this weekend!
ReplyDeleteDanno
ReplyDeleteMy guess is SMTers and agressive subs combined paper profiits this week were MILLIONS.
Like Mr M said spend the 10 bucks.
Thanks Mr. M!
ReplyDeleteWilliam Wallace said...
ReplyDeleteTook off the SPXU at a break of the head and shoulders neckline. 10% loss on the market short. "
WW,
Do you long anything??
oa92000,
ReplyDeleteLong gold.
I thought Danno was a sub?
ReplyDeleteAny folks on the premium site that made money, be sure to send some to Gary's team.
ReplyDelete86,
ReplyDeleteWouldnt be suprised to see a push to 1300 SPX tomorrow, I cant lie im gonna look to short again...lol
Brother, I know exactly what your feeling, I see it too. But.......
ReplyDeleteLooking at those spy gaps, maybe a dollar bounce, that gld gap at(what is it 166-167). That would fit a lot of scenarios, bleed off a little excess pressure all the way around, and let this thing keep rolling in grand style.
Plus you are kind of a glutton for punishment......
Danno,
ReplyDeleteI would ask the guy for your money back who wrote the chart book and buy yourself a subscription to Gary's premium site. I think you will rest a lot easier at night.
Danno- you won't regret the subscription. Just the trades this week alone pay for the subscriptions many times over.
ReplyDeletejon you buy your silver from guernsey mint?
ReplyDeletejon you buy your silver from guernsey mint right?
ReplyDeleteps you was the other service you subscribe to?
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIf the dollar does break the three year low does this change your opinion on the four year low of the market?
Maybe the four year low may not be so severe due to inflation. There are companies that do well in inflation.
James
WW
ReplyDeleteWhy not wait for a break of the 10ma or at least a swing high?
I think with the dollar falling fast and this move in gold "should" be the final parabolic run we have been waiting for before the start of the "D" wave.
ReplyDeleteJames
Gold is looking real good in the futures, open was perfect and it's trading at a nice grind, trading like it did out of the July bottom. Right now there is nothing but thin air above gold.
ReplyDeleteSF,
ReplyDeleteIn the market?
SF,
ReplyDeleteDefinitely a close below the 10, but not a swing high, we had a couple of those already.
The guys over at Evil Speculator are convinced we will see 150 on the spy.
ReplyDeleteI want some of what those guys are smoking.
An article from the Aden Sisters with their thoughts on the D-wave.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/aden_oct272011.html
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJoseph,
ReplyDeleteI believe Gary was introduced to ABCD waves I gold by the Aden Sisters. Gary if I'm wrong please correct me.
Lemma, you win the prize for the most juvenile and ignorant post of the day. Congrats.
ReplyDeleteJoey,
ReplyDeletewere you a pig farmer in another life?
Hamvester, I agree Lemma's post even beat out Danno's posts below.
ReplyDeleteDanno said...
Updated thoughts on GLD. Any advice welcome as I have very little idea what I am doing and can use all the help I can get! lol (Actually, that's not funny.)
Then he asks:
Danno said...
What's conversation like on the premium site? Doesn't seem like too much effort being expended here. Don't know about you, but I want to make some stinking money. I will even take $100 bills that rode a thousands miles strapped to a camel's groin.
October 27, 2011 12:20 PM
My take, Danno, is this community is more than willing to help beginners like you, but if you expect to make some "stinking money", how about paying your "stinking dues" and stop wasting our time with your many inane posts. The premium site is rich with content. If you were a sub, perhaps, you wouldn't feel the urge to post incessantly.
Chill out guys,
ReplyDeleteit's just a joke.
I realized that there isn't a way to block posts here.
ReplyDeleteJLemma, as an employment discrimination lawyer, I can't tell you how many ignorant (and unlawful) comments are made in the workplace with the justification of "oh, I was just joking." I know this is an investment blog, not a workplace, but nonetheless maybe you might want to think before you speak. jmho.
ReplyDelete