Thursday, May 12, 2011

TRANSITION COMLETE

Despite my bias to see new all time lows in the dollar index, I think the dollar probably put in the three year cycle low last week. Sentiment at the time had reached multi-year lows and as of yesterday the dollar had moved back above the 50 day moving average.

If I'm right then this should usher in the next deflationary period just like the rally out of the `08 three year cycle low signaled a coming recession, the next leg down for stocks in the ongoing secular bear market, and a collapse of the CRB into it's 3 year cycle low.



This should also drive gold down into it's D-wave decline. Yesterday the miners made a lower low and this morning silver made a lower low. It's probably only a matter of time before gold breaks below the $1462 pivot. That would confirm that gold is now in an intermediate decline and this late in the C-wave that would almost certainly turn out to be a D-wave correction.




The good news is that sometime in late June or early July we are going to get the single best buying opportunity we will ever get for the rest of this bull market.

At this point the goal is to preserve capital and get to that major D-wave bottom with plenty of dry powder.

163 comments:

  1. Avnx_rocks, The $sox broke support in March. The $sox:$spx is now displaying a down sloping head and shoulders pattern. Looks like a tasty short to me. I guess there are always 2 ways to see things.


    http://www.screencast.com/t/R6VBMnZC

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  2. at ease do you consider those slv puts home run plays?

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  3. out of gold at 1498. quick $10 profit on 200 oz. :)

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  4. I'm with Brian regarding tech stocks, nothing but downside if you ask me.

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  5. That was a pretty hard sell yesterday. We can probably expect the bulls to try and hold $1500 today. That being said the miners and now silver have broken the daily cycle low.

    It's probably only a matter of time before gold follows.

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  6. China increased reserve ratio by another 50 basis point today. There's a lot of forces at work trying to contain the inflationary pressure caused by the fed.

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  7. hi Gary,

    any view on rates? If there is fear of inflation, how come the long end is so well bid?

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  8. Gary,
    I posted this at the end of the other thread so not sure if you saw it. Google HA (hyaluronic acid) and read about it. If you still have cartilage it can help - it has helped me.

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  9. Ben pumped up the price of oil too high again and it collapsed the economy...again.

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  10. Can't wait for the A wave already!

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  11. Brad,
    I'll look into it.

    Sophia,
    The inflationary period is coming to an end. The dollar rally will correspond to the next deflationary period, including another recession and the next leg down in the secular bear market for stocks.

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  12. Hi Gary, what is your take on:

    1. The duration of the next ABC wave?

    2. The possibility of suppressing inflation (more specifically the PMs) if governments around the world work together to take take it on (margin hikes, etc)?

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  13. Well, I guess I'll hold my DUG for now and give this dollar a rally a chance to build. BUT, Looking at the charts of the miners, its not hard to imagine a right shoulder forming before everything drops into the abyss through summer. We'll see. I am 50?50 on short term directions right now, as the dollar could retrace some of its rally soon, as well.

    What I'm am more certain of is that volatility is going to increase here.

    f

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  14. somebody STOP ME!

    I'm starting to get buy signals , and I cant (YET) prove them to be false signals :)

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  15. Has anyone taken initial PUT positions in SLV or GLD for the D wave or are most of you waiting for the 1460 break confirmation?

    If so, what strikes and months if I may ask?

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  16. Obama team to probe oil market fraud, manipulation. you cannot play against government after all.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/us-obama-oil-idUSTRE73K6WW20110421

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  17. Alex: I posted on the last thread---"These power dives are tough on my signals. During times like this everything gets overwhelmed, so I will have limited patience when something goes against me. Still holding DBA for now, though." Be careful.

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  18. oa92000

    Bush did that also, in 2008 when oil was sky high.

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  19. What carnage in silver! AGQ down to 150 level. Glad to be out of it.

    Got left behind in trying to buy SLV puts. How are the others doing on this.

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  20. Jack,
    Suppressing inflation would mean putting the world into recession (this is what Volker did).

    The global economy, especially the US, is being propped up by monetary inflation. If that is removed down we go. Unfortunately it will go down either way because eventually inflation will rise enough to collapse the economy anyway. $112 oil may have already done the trick.

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  21. LOL@Alex. You are a funny man.

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  22. DG

    Thanks ( I did ask for someone to stop me).

    I am still getting a false sell signal , and a set up to buy signal in a few of these equities, so I am NOT buying, but I will be closely watching this.

    Particularly XG , RIC , AG , EXK.

    For now its Patience , or buy with Tighter stop that my normal 8%.

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  23. Alex, when you say you risk 8%, is that of total account value with cumulative positions, or is that per stock meaning 32% total risk?

    Just curious...

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  24. Alex,
    You are getting buy signals because your oscillators are oversold. Oscillators work well in range bound markets or in trending markets during counter trend moves.

    They don't work in strongly trending markets where the trend has changed. The trend has clearly changed in silver and miners. Now you need to use your oscillators as sell signals when they get short term overbought, not as buy signals when they get oversold.

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  25. Elaine,
    I do not know what Bush did after investigation??

    But I think "the CME raised margin requirements on oil futures" has something to do with the investigation from Obama.

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  26. Thanks Gary.

    Any thoughts on how long the next ABC cycles in gold will run? Or is that too difficult to estimate at this point?

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  27. I intend to start shorting stocks into spikes, and it turns out can still borrow SSO to do it although I don't know for how long they'll be available.

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  28. Once in, I expect to be in this trade several months so will use wide stops and adjust position size accordingly.

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  29. SB: I suggest you short SSO now and also buy the same number of shares right away, thus boxing it. Then to "short" it you just sell the long position. They are unlikely to call you in on your short and this gets around the later unavailability of shares problem.

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  30. boy if we don't hold here we have a lot of air on the bottom side....29.83 on slv for starters...

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  31. DG,

    I appreciate the input, but hate paying double commissions. If it's unavailable when I go to short, I'll just use the futures.

    Might even use the futures anyway, but wanted to let others know the shares are there to borrow since it was in question yesterday. :)

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  32. Gary,
    if all is as you lay it out, wouldn't it then be relatively safe to go long uup, the Russell, and even Gold? I am talking inverted ETFs without leverage; just for the wait until the A wave is here? Could I have ur thoughts on this? I know u said never to short the bull, but gold is at a comfortably high level here, and I believe having diversification on the short side is prudent too.
    And what about bonds? Wouldn't deflation and a rise in the usd bode well for bonds? But Jim Rogers wants to Hirt them right here.
    Still having a very har time seeing silver in the low twenties, but if ur convinced the D wave can do a lot more damage...
    Thx

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  33. Sorry, typing this on my phone with big fingers. I meant of course long uup, short gold, Russel, perhaps NASDAQ . And how about bonds?

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  34. Jim Rogers: Silver rally was a 'gigantic crazy spike,' didn't quite reach parabolic status
    Jim Rogers

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  35. Oups. My previous commen just deleted by itself.

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  36. Alex, XG gapped down today, that is never a good buy to me.

    RIC- H&S pattern. At neckline now, pointing 3 bucks down, and a gap down today.

    EXK- A rather complex H&S but there none the less.

    AG- Maybe you have a $1.75 to 50dma resistance. Another H&S.

    Gold and silver will have to rally to bust these patterns up.

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  37. 0
    1
























    20





    0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002

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  38. Basil,
    I don't generally short bull markets because the profit potential is too small and surprises come on the upside. I will buy puts as the profit potential is huge and makes the risk worth taking.

    I'll leave the bonds to Rogers. I can't find much consistency in bond cycles so wouldn't really have much of an edge.

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  39. spam blockers caught it for some reason. I fixed it.

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  40. alright got to workout and then heading to the rocks for the rest of the day. Talk amongst yourselves.

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  41. The S&P made a higher high from Feb to May. During that time you have a negative divergence on RSI, MACD, and Chaikin Money Flow. Slow Stochs are the only momentum indicator to hold up, but only on the daily chart, not on the weekly.

    8 weeks into a new market intermediate cycle we are close to our 2nd weekly swing high. Things seem to be changing.

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  42. All,

    With Gary being mum on his put strategy, what do you suspect he would likely be doing?

    Is he waiting for 1460 break confirmation?

    What months and strikes is he likely to use - is July too soon?

    Crazy just a couple weeks ago we were long July calls, now it is likely that it is a good month for puts.

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  43. Too late for SLV puts, IMO. It's down $17! Not to say there isn't money to be made, but with these premiums, mmmm.
    Plus many have made 1000% on SLV puts, they are almost ready to sell to you.

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  44. I would encourage caution here. Near the top everyone wanted calls; now everyone is talking about puts. The goal is to do options BEFORE a big move not after one. After a trend has been going for a while people's courage is up because of the trend, but a stiff bounce could happen at any moment. Puts can work if we are part way down, but with options a small timing error can kill you. Gary is hoping people will save money for the A wave---and he's probably right that most should do just that.

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  45. so i came in at the top, and just sold, lost 30 percent of my portfolio. recommend just wait for the A wave to do anything?

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  46. FWIW if this turns into a left translated cycle gold and silver have a long ways to go down yet.

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  47. sentiment nearly reset now, the golden bull has shaken just about everyone off..$1650 here we come

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  48. Miners all positive...looks like a bump coming?

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  49. Mitchell: Sorry to hear about that. Hang in there. It is very important to cut losses short when you think you are wrong. Gary and everyone else here made it clear something was seriously amiss and that it was not a normal correction. Once that was clear you've got to get out and not let the losses get bigger. Don't press to "make it back" as that usually makes things worse. The A-wave will be a real opportunity; makes sure you have as much capital as possible for that.

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  50. First victims of the rush to short crowd is SLW, what a reversal. Let gold break its pivot before you go nuts shorting.

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  51. @Sandy101 (7:12 a.m.)

    Despite all of the (well-intended) advice to forgo puts at this "late" juncture, I took a position yesterday in SLV JUL 25's.

    I'm traipsing around Ireland the rest of this month and as such have no intention to tend the nursery. Took a position small enough (2.5% of total funds) to be able to lose and still play the A-wave.

    And if it were a short term trade, it's up 40% since I bought late yesterday. (And I haven't seen that sort of return in a bit.)

    Good luck!

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  52. They trapped the longs on Tuesday and trapped the shorts on Thursday. I need a futures account.

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  53. Oh, I am not short yet, except for some July OTM puts on the Russell and the USO fund.

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  54. phew DXY holding below 75.5

    silver above 31 and gold above 1470

    bought some PMs this morning to add to my pile, so far looks good.

    didn't think the profit taking event was going to be so violent 2 weeks ago. i'm ok though no leverage, but sucks to see the paper profits disappear.

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  55. www.321gold.com

    Martin Armstrong latest on silver

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  56. One of youz guyz was saying yesterday that techs were ripe for a dowfall, I can't recall who.
    Any further info on that?

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  57. Be careful with ETF's! There is no guarantee that they will perform as expected. ZSL is currently way off... should be roughly equal but inverse of AGQ. Currently ZSL is (+3.78%) AGQ (-11.59%) SLV (-4.45%)

    Those investors in ZSL are feeling ripped off. http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/ZSL

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  58. 110 million shares of SLV trading so far. It is blowing away the SPY right now. WOW!

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  59. I might be interested in some of those Jan 2012 UUP calls. Anybody else eying them?

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  60. Within the last couple years I've never seen ZSL so far out of whack with silver and AGQ. Currently ZSL is (+1.89%) AGQ (-10.51%) SLV (-3.58%)

    Yahoo msg board is really buzzing. http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/ZSL

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  61. @Sandy101 for SLV puts, personally I think that if one wants to play puts, to do it small, then now is as good as anytime to buy puts. I sank $1K into SLV July 25 yesterday, and if SLV goes to 20, then I think I'll walk away with $10K... if it doesn't then at worst I paid $1k of tuition for learning options...

    for those than plan to go all in on puts, that's a different story... definitely too late for that now, and probably a bad idea even if you think you are buying at the top.

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  62. ProShares must has run out of funds to fuel ZSL... just dipped negative while AGQ at -9.19%... should have been about 9.19%... holders are getting screwed.

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  63. Yeah, complete thievery on ZSL/AGQ ratio.

    Gosh damn bandits are punching the nuts of traders on both sides of the fence.

    Ahhhh, breath!

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  64. AGQ is down 3X more than silver and ZSL is flat when silver is down almost 3%, I wonder what's going on? At least HZU.TO and HZD.TO is still tracking it normally.

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  65. I started selling my puts and sold my short position this morning. I think we may have a bounce from here, we got a double bottom at 32.40 and waayyy too many people here discussing puts.

    No one was interested in buying puts when I was posting my purchases & now everyone is talking about it. Not a good sign.

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  66. do you guys think that this dead cat bounce we are experiencing with the reversal in gold/silver prices today will hold into tomorrow? wondering weather would be a better idea to remove remaining positions today or tomorrow. curious to hear bloggers around here's thoughts.

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  67. Im liking this candle thats likely to print on the USD if this keeps up

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  68. There are twice as many SLV buyers than sellers at this time.

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  69. Just sold half of my SLV puts. Will look to add again at higher price.

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  70. Yan, I suspect at least until Tuesday.

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  71. and i'm liking the emerging gold candle

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  72. thank you, bob. wish i was in hawaii right now myself, would have made this a much less stressful past 2 weeks!

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  73. Dan: I agree. This board is turning into a decent contrary-indicator when options get promoted. I am hoping a dollar fade here will set up some nice shorts in various sectors

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  74. DG,
    I'm preserving capital for the a-wave and deciding when to exchange CND to USD. Any opinion with the Canadian dollar? Just do it now or wait for a pullback on USD which should give me a better rate on the exchange.

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  75. Lot's of chasing going on in here, then subsequent dumping for losses!

    Metals are over sold, these don't just roll over for you. Silver already down 35%, D-Wave's don't happen over night.

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  76. Bob, and James r,

    have you changed your view about your upside expectations or are you still contemplating the double bottom?
    Can't really get myself to have a clear opinion on that and am sitting back for now.

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  77. Follow the yellow brick road.....

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  78. Ryan: I'd follow the chart on FXC. Looks like it held the low and reversed so CND ought to bounce for a few days, IMO. But I'd do it Monday or Tuesday if the dollar pulls back a bit. Nothing screams out at me though.

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  79. ZSL is taking on water... broke... somebody call the plumber. How convenient while AGQ tanks.

    I finally sold my shares of AGQ today. Too much bleeding.

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  80. If my question seems out of context - I haven't read up on this morning's posts here...

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  81. I am considering a small position in ZSL (with no margin) for this D-wave ...anyone else?

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  82. Poly,

    Do you expect some kind of bounce here? Do you still keep your gold positions you bought yesterday? Thx for sharing!

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  83. Poly,

    what does that mean, you're suggesting gold will go higher? Thx

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  84. abc,
    Just a trade, anything can happen, i just feel gold has held up very well and a run to challenge the high's is a decent possibility, that's been my position since the cycle low. Stops at the cycle points.
    The trade yesterday at $1,500 got stopped out. Other positions still open.

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  85. Richard
    Are you saying that ZSL is much cheaper than it should be, based on silver?

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  86. back in gold at 1505. Looks strong to me today. People selling silver and buying gold?

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  87. Hey Alex! You are the man! Good picking. You going to hold them?

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  88. basil,

    Yes, that's been my position since the cycle low last week. I'm letting the daily cycle low tell me otherwise.

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  89. Confusing picture - looks like Ben spooked the USD rally with his comments and there has been a hard bounce for gold, silver and crude off the rising weekly/monthly up trend lines. Being a good trader involves taking the market signals and ditching bias; having the ability to turn your opinion on a daily basis based on the charts alone and not what you think you know.

    The hammers (if the day closes as such) on gold, silver and crude could be worth a bid after 2 pushes down (from the highs) into that trend line. The weekly trend lines have not been violated on crude or gold yet.

    Friday could be interesting!

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  90. Even AGQ has a large negative divergence vs. SLV. These leveraged ETF's are to be dropped like a hot potato once the trend changes.

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  91. Keeping my calls 36 Silver for tonight...shall see in the morning

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  92. Rather large SOS today. Odd place for that.

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  93. Basil, I never changed my view. Gold is not yet broken. I have no idea how high it will go, but I will mange my hedges appropriately

    Neil, gold and silver seems to rise out of a sell off on Thursday, and then get crushed on Tuesday AH. I am just playing the odds.

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  94. Brian, more likely the early morning sell program is still higher than the covering still going on.

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  95. A question to all:

    the way silver broke down a second time, making a 'double bottom' with a lower low, thereby breaking out to the downside...
    couldn't that exactly be the type of smart money triggered set up that gets retailers and the technical crowd to panic out of their positions and for the smart money to collect these positions on the cheap?
    Gary pointed out this type of set up a few times, the last time he pointed it out when talking about the possibility that USD might break down to a just lower low after the spike up, so that everyone panics out of their long position - and that would be when the smart money goes fully long.
    Is that view or theory possibly applicable or not at all applicable to the very current situation in silver, you think?
    Appreciate any feedback. Thx

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  96. Btw, silver almost hit my downside price target of $31.
    I think what we saw today can still be considered a bounce off the Auguts 2010 to May 2011 ascending trendline, but I have not yet looked at it closely.
    Over the past few days I saw that several others voiced an expectation of a bottom at $30 and $31.
    Gary's call of possibly going down to $21 shocks me a little. Is he alone with his view or have you heard of other analysts who have such low targets?
    I got to admit that it gets me a bit hesitant following my initial plan to get in at about $31. Yet, I would be slightly annoyed if I'd miss a nice run on the metal, watching with my pockets full of cash.

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  97. Nice intraday reversal on PMs after double bottom on silver. I think may get a bounce here for a day or two. Sold all my puts now and my slv short this morning. Let's see what happens from here...

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  98. ok glad to see there are still a few of us waiting to see this cycle prove itself one way or another. This morning, 7 AM est was the first time in this correction I thought about just selling everything and sitting around for 8-10 weeks. Now I see we are green. Volatility is crazy.

    I think I am going to stick with poly and Bob FH and the few others and let this cycle prove itself. If I get stopped out it has been a great 3 yr run.

    @ Bob or Poly or others still long. Will you raise your stops anytime soon or continue to leave them at the 1460 level ( at 1459..everything is sold for me)

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  99. Plus gold is still holding above the 50ema. The uptrend remains intact for now - what a difference the US session makes after the European session it looked like further downside in all commodities!?

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  100. I just wish that it would either shoot up to 50$ or down to 20$ and get it over with. By the end of next week.

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  101. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/slv-trading-record-discount-nav

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  102. ok..that was weird i signed in my kids computer and my name got changed. those hedo2cu were mine

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  103. All, if this is the "D" Wave, remember, it lasts 6-8 weeks and does its best to keep everyone on board hoping they caught a bottom. If this is a D Wave, rips in the POG and POS are to be shorted, if you are inclined to do that! I guess we should find it in less than one weeks time if this bounce has legs or just rolls over.

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  104. Glen:

    Yes, ZSL appears to be much lower than where it should be by over 6 % at the moment. But.... it only SEEKS a price level that is 200% the inverse of silver. No guarantees!

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  105. SLV went positive briefly...not much of a head fake even though it recovered from lows. No-one will be convinced by this move that d wave is not here...not enough of a gain to fool anyone(suprising if that was big moneys intention)...see what tomorrow brings.

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  106. Gary, would we be looking at lower prices for GDX and GDXJ to buy than today? My thinking is the miners led into the D Wave.

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  107. Anyone think there could be some follow through on what appears to be a key reversal day on silver?

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  108. Romeo Bravo,

    if this move will have had legs or not we might know in a week, but if it has it will be even more difficult to buy it then. This reversal, if this is one, will be questioned all the way to $50, if it gets there. That's the problem.

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  109. You judging-the-puts sentiment folk are funny!

    There are just as many, if not more, going long. And the general consensus seems to be that it's a crapshoot either/any way: Stay in cash and maybe you miss out, maybe you save; take a stake and one way or another you're going to make something or lose.

    I took my position based on my best synthesized "guess" of what I imagine will be a longer-term trend as I don't fancy baby-sitting my trades right now. If it's wrong, I don't lose much but if we're in the dreaded d-wave, I might as well find some sweetness there.

    I just happen to not feel that way about going long at the moment, and judging by the anti-put sentiment being vocalized here today, perhaps I ought to rest easier :)

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  110. Do you really think we are going back to $50.00 silver? I am not setting any silver targets. My sell decision will be based on Gold. If gold hits the 1600 target or slightly higher, I would be surpised if silver got above 45-46. But who knows with this crazyness last 4 weeks

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  111. many people thinking a d-wave is at hand.

    thinking and hoping is not going to make it come true.

    1460 gold hadn't been violated, the bull is still in play and many are jumping the gun with puts and leveraged inverse ETFs?

    greedy anyone?

    be careful, leveraged etfs are nasty in a whipsaw. they only stair downward. you are using a vehicle that doubles/triples already a volatile asset.

    dollar collapse still in play too, need it to break down to 74 and then the fireworks should start as the shorts have to cover.

    c'mon longs where are you? SB, announce QE3 man.. you don't have enough cash to run the economy/no less the gov't.

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  112. Silver retraced more than 50% of the past two day's drop. This is a slight change in the action.

    What this means is that even SI is going to tag its 200 Day averages, it is not going to be a straight line down but more jagged action. This is NOT good for ULTRA long ETFs since the zig-zag kills their price. It is good for shorting the ultra ETFs but that is negative gamma.

    BTW the 200 day EMA on SI is just under 31. We came within a buck and change of that. We are also getting a doji in SI today. If this double bottom holds, and we take out the 39.50 high the measured move target for SI will be in the high 40s (yeah right.....).

    I have gone flat in PMs except a very small position in DZZ, primarily for trading swings up and down the D-wave.

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  113. Basil, I'm convinced the PM trade is busted for now. The action of the miners, POS and volume on the 2x ETFs tell the story. I coughed up quite a few of my gains from the silver reversal but am happy to sit in mostly cash and wait until the A wave. I think that is the next high probability scenario. Otherwise you just swing from emotional low to high and arrive at the A wave exhausted and not ready to dive in.

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  114. Dipped my toes back in a little, bought some slv july's puts at 25.

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  115. Nat,

    that was just hypothetical. I am just saying that you can buy these moves only the moment they bounce off like today. If it goes up Friday and Monday, it's too late, because a sudden down move like yesterday would bring you way into the red premarket. So in the very hypothetical case that silver would find its way up to $50, I believe that almost all here (including me) would miss the entire move.

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  116. Gary originally thought silver would hit 41.33 ...never happened ...was interrupted by bank BOT action....maybe that is the silver target? Next few days will tell

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  117. I asked Gary but didn't get an answer if the BB crash trade is still on the table.

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  118. Vonda: Just FYI, my comment was not directed at you, but the board did absolutely light up with call option comments at the top and there has been a lot of discussion of puts now. I feel better when I am alone in something like that. Just like Gary said about getting record number of hits to his site, huge activity usually means at least a pause. I did not go long, so my feelings are muted, but silver did reverse most of its power dive this morning.

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  119. Hey Guys,

    Looking at Silver, does this not look like a textbook double bottom? Also Gold remains above the pivot. I'm buying silver miners today.

    I know Gary's analysis does not coincide with this but I am not about to substitute his judgement for mine. I found myself doing this too much but I have to do what works according to my analysis. We have a well defined stop in place with the dollar, gold and silver.

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  120. basil,


    Just logged in. Nice not to have to look at the markets now!

    My thesis was broken yesterday and I am out in the no-stress zone (cash) and I will wait for the A-train to arrive.


    James

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  121. Romeo Bravo,

    I agree, just not with full conviction. Like Mr. M, I wish we could be done with D and go straight to A; but then we couldn't take a nice vacation break :)

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  122. Despite a bit of a talk regarding SLV puts on the blog, only 2 people took the trade ( from what I can remember).

    I was one of the guys who talked of missing the trade. I was planning to by SLV puts with 2-3 % of portfolio and would have taken it had silver bounced to low 40s. Maybe, we still find that opportunity in next few days.

    Looking forward to going in big at D wave bottom and recovering lost profits.

    Man, what a difference a day made. Had the gap down not happened and we had been able to sell silver positions that Monday morning, it would have been more than 100 % returns since January. We can still dream for next phase of PM bull:)

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  123. Baba Ghanoosh,
    Double bottom from the 39$ level, not from the top.

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  124. Sandy,
    I have some Jun 30 puts.

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  125. Regarding double bottoms, I'm not sure how much technical analisys can be used at this time, it seems to have a mind of its own.

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  126. Just went all in AGQ after having sold miners on the retest of the 50 day MA for a 7% loss a few days ago. We just broke to a new low, but if the dollar does a double bottom here and this is a classic hedge fund run the stop day on silver, there is a chance that this will be a bounce. I'm still expecting things much lower eventually, just playing a bounce here if it's a retail trap day. Will sell tomorrow on the open if I'm wrong.

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  127. Miyagi San,

    Good for you. I wish I had got some a few days ago! Missed the bus.

    I am hoping I can still catch it at next stop.

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  128. Did anyone who follow's Beanie's blog notice how bullish he was on SLV at the VERY top? Just sayin'

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  129. Sandy101,
    Not sure how all this is going to play out in the short term but it seems to be on the downtrend.
    I'm not an analyst or a shrink but I feel that maybe there are still some holding on to SLV hoping for rebound, maybe they bought more today to "average down".
    If, if, if, the price of silver/gold continue downwards tomorrow, a whole whack might just give up and sell off, that would cause a panic slide like last we saw.
    On the other hand, maybe I'm an idiot and the price will go to 48$ next week.

    Again, grain of salt, bla bla.

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  130. We will just have to see how this plays out. Gary's insight in terms of the bull throwing off riders prior to a big up is still in play.

    If correct, the straddle strategy should work well.

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  131. This is the ultimate bull and a final MONSTER run over a couple of weeks would be the ultimate signature of it!

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  132. Cory,

    my thinking too, but I think I'll stay put. The moves have become too violent for me.

    What would you do if there's another -10% or more premarket? Just saying, because you mentioned all in on AGQ.

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  133. In contrast to 3 hours ago where there were 1630 buyers and 840 sellers, there's 1440 buyers and 1105 sellers for SLV.

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  134. The ZSL Mystery

    ZSL calculates its NAV at 7:00AM Eastern Time.At that time its official NAV was 24.28 and it was pretty much trading at that price.

    To get the price differential you need to look at the 7:00AM price of the SI futures and then make the calculations. This is really confusing, but for them to price the swaps they need some trading desk to work with them.

    http://www.proshares.com/media/documents/ProSharesCommodityCurrencyProspectus.pdf
    Go to Page 15.
    Net Asset Value
    The NAV means the total assets of a Fund including, but not limited to, all cash and cash equivalents or
    other debt securities less total liabilities of such Fund, each determined on the basis of generally accepted
    accounting principles in the United States, consistently applied under the accrual method of accounting. NAV is
    calculated at the following times:
    Fund NAV Calculation Time
    ProShares Ultra Silver 7:00 a.m. (Eastern Time)*
    ProShares UltraShort Silver
    ProShares Ultra Gold 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time)*
    ProShares Short Gold
    ProShares UltraShort Gold
    ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Commodity 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
    ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Commodity
    ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
    ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil
    ProShares Short DJ-UBS Natural Gas 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
    ProShares Ultra Euro 4:00 p.m. (Eastern Time)
    ProShares UltraShort Euro
    ProShares Ultra Yen 4:00 p.m. (Eastern Time)
    ProShares UltraShort Yen
    ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF 4:15 p.m. (Eastern Time)
    ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
    * For silver and gold this time may vary due to differences in when daylight savings time is effective between
    London and New York. The actual times equate to noon London time for silver, and 3 p.m. London time for
    gold.
    The NAV is calculated as described under “Description of the Shares; the Funds; Certain Material Terms of
    the Trust Agreement—Net Asset Value (“NAV”)” for more detai

    https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/PFA_DailyHoldingsSilver_web.csv

    PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS INFORMATION,,,,,,,
    AS OF 5/12/2011,,,,,,,
    Fund Name,Fund Ticker,Fund Identifier,Security Description, Shares/Contracts , Notional Value , Market Value ,NAV
    ProShares Ultra Silver,AGQ,74347W841,Silver Forward,46739800.00,1518901390.01,null,null
    ProShares Ultra Silver,AGQ,74347W841,SIN1 Future,373.00,60901575.00,null,null
    ProShares Ultra Silver,AGQ,74347W841,Net Other Assets / Cash,789765821.91,null,789765821.91,150.431184
    ProShares UltraShort Silver,ZSL,74347W643,Silver Forward,-46585500.00,-1513886788.07,null,null
    ProShares UltraShort Silver,ZSL,74347W643,SIN1 Future,-111.00,-18123525.00,null,null
    ProShares UltraShort Silver,ZSL,74347W643,Net Other Assets / Cash,766004879.98,null,766004879.98,24.283411

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  135. Cory,

    As the saying goes, you only have to get rich once.

    If I was sitting on 20 million burritos, I'd be trading small through the D-wave.

    You will turn that into 100 million easy during the next A-B-C cycle. No need to be a hero right now.

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  136. Looking at all my charts, and intermarket stuff, it sure looks like we're undergoing a big Turning Point today, one that argues we're still in the C-Wave.

    Big Picture: It looks like early last week, because of perceived problems with Greece (and rumors they might be exiting the Euro), money fled from the "Risk On" trade (Euro, stocks, commodities, gold/silver) to the "Risk Off" trade (dollar, Treasury bonds).

    [My understanding is that at different times, gold'silver can be part of the "Risk On" trade OR the "Risk Off" trade.]

    The perceived problems in Greece made the Euro go down, which made the dollar go up, which made commodities and stocks and PMs go down. And at the same time, the Powers That Be decided to give the PMs an extra kick by demanding 5 margin hikes in 2 weeks. (Come on! If they were really doing this for LEGITIMATE reasons, they would've had 1 or at the most 2 margin hikes. 5 absolutely shows that they were doing this primarily to stop the silver and, by extension, gold, locomotives. "Oh, 1 and 2 didn't work. Let's try 3. Nope, 4 should do it. Damn! Still hasn't done it. OK, 5 should screw the longs. Ahhhhh -- sweet victory!!!!").

    Anyway, "Risk Off" started last week. Today, it looks like "Risk On" is coming back on. It looks like the Euro is going to go back up, and therefore the dollar down. It looks like commodities and stocks are going back up too. And it looks like gold and silver are going back into their uptrend as well.

    I would bet that the Euro, silver and GDX all put in lows today, and that gold put in its low last Thursday. And I would bet that Gary's original scenario is still going to play out: the dollar catching fresh long stops on the way down, causing a runaway train that crashes through the recent floor, and gold going to 1720 -1750 by the 3rd or 4th week in June, with GDX breaking out to new highs, and dragging silver to new highs as well.

    *****Of course, I add my usual caveat: THIS COULD ALL BE ABSOLUTELY DEAD WRONG.***** (I'm not watching end of day action here, and, for all I know, my thesis may already be dust.)

    I'm just saying, please try to watch the charts with "unbiased eyes" (if that's possible), otherwise, you might be missing a good opportunity to make back some profits that were lost the last 2 weeks.

    And if this thesis does come to fruition, it'd make me very happy to know that I might've helped some people here, all of whom have helped me SO MUCH. After all, that's the basic philosophy behind Gary's Incredible Site -- to help other people with his high-level trading expertise. And I believe in his enlightened philosophy 200%.

    I gotta run. Might be gone for a few days.

    *****Again, I have to WARN everybody: everything I just said might be the purest wishful thinking on my part. And if it is, I hope you won't throw tomatoes at me next time I show my face here. ;^)

    Wishing good luck to EVERYBODY here!

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  137. jhnewman, I share your thoughts too.

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  138. OK... if SLV can't close above 34.. then I'm out at EOD.

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  139. BG,
    SLV is very short term (daytrade) oversold, it should end above 34$ unless a last minute selloff happens.

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  140. B ganoosh,
    Sorry, I was looking at silver over 34$ and SLV over 33$ but far below 34$.

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  141. ZSL reminds me of how painful it is to be right and still not make money.

    I think it was Eamonn that asked why I'd short the double long SSO rather than go long a double short etf. ZSL's behavior today is the answer, if one shorted AGQ they did better than 2x SLV's decline (3x to be exact), while ZSL might not even close positive.

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  142. Miyagi,

    I'm staying long but cut my position in half. I think IF it is going to bounce this is a time to take a shot.

    The only thing is that according to my indicators the market still has lower to go which should pull down silver, however a strong reversal like this usually leads to a couple of days of strength as many sellers are taken out.

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  143. SLV down $1...lost half its retracement...too many headfakes to know direction...hope Mr M is right about close

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  144. I have a style of trading that is not for everyone. I firmly believe the only way to make money in this game long term is to buy bull markets when everyone else is scared. I try to find the "run the stop" days that come at cycle lows, and if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I sell. Those are actually the lowest risk days when you look back at it, and you can rarely tell it's one of those days unless that's all you look for. The signature is always well-above average volume right below a support or pivot.

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  145. When I was in the business (like 100 years ago) a colleague of mine referred to "the cost of coming in to work every day" because he'd come in, watch the market all day, and wind up doing something because he couldn't watch it all day without wanting some action. The trades he pushed for were generally losers. I will at worst have as much capital as I have today for the A wave. Just sayin'...

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  146. I agree Cory. I've waited patiently for a day like this to add some silver miners. We have easy stops in place with either the dollar, silver or gold. Also a divergence in the miners and the metal price also could be constructive.

    Gary has been wrong before and he could be wrong here although I do appreciate his input.

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  147. SB, great point. I think I'd be slow buy ZSL as a short now

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  148. No worries, DG.

    I thought of going long at the same time. Honestly, probably the main reason I didn't is because I'm afeard of wash repercussions--I need those recent losses to remain losses.

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  149. Cory,

    I can understand your "fade the crowd" attitude, but I'll bet that the crowd is correct most of the time.

    The crowd isn't stupid. On this blog, for instance, the vast majority were correctly bullish on silver for weeks and weeks.

    It's at the turn that the crowd is almost always wrong. But, if you know where the turn is, what do you need the crowd for ?

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  150. Wes: I agree with that, but I think a sudden burst and acceleration of enthusiasm is also noteworthy. Yes, the majority is right for months during a bull, but the extreme call interest didn't happen here until the gains were giddy on the upside, I think.

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  151. I would also submit that we are not in a bull market in silver right now.

    By any conventional definition we are in a bear market -- maybe a cyclical bear within a secular bull, but a bear nonetheless.

    That said, I'm rooting for you.

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  152. WES,

    If you get a moment, could you shoot me an email? It's on my profile.

    Cheers.

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