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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Portfolio change activated

75 comments:

  1. Decisive - nice job Gary.

    Waiting for the next cycle low.

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  2. That was spooky, it's almost as if you sold the last 10% and the market obeyed.

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  3. I do not follow the SMT model portfolio but I closed my gold long and copper short about an hour ago. This is a good call, Gary.

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  4. Saw the spike sell off from all the SMTP subs and blog followers by the close of day.

    :)

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  5. took it one step further and went short gold with dzz...

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  6. I held on to QQQ position---Can only hope for some follow through tomorrow. Off to Dr.

    Take care all!

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  7. 1st time commenting. Been a sub since Feb 2011. Sold my Silver @ the exact top on April 28th but got burned all the way down trying catch falling knife. Follow the Model to a T except for a little DGP,Big support for Gary and just sold my last 10%, what ever happens it's still all me. Waiting to get back in.

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  8. Wow,
    it's raining blogs today...

    Gary,
    Since I live in the cold north of Europe I'm not that active when you and the rest of the US team are, but I want to give you a big thumbs up.

    I hope we all can cleanse the comment sections from bashers and dipshits (gotta love that word) because this is also a very good reason why SMT are a great place to be for investments. All the good advice and all the great banter is very valuable. also give +1 on the sub blog comments, if possible. That would be much better I think.

    Right, off to bed. Have a great day all.

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  9. Gary & group, I would appreciate your feedback on my own humble thoughts on the dollar/interest rates;

    The biggest buyers of UST's (that help out the Fed/Treasury keep interest rates low) is US, China, Japan...

    China will be a buyer of short term treasuries as long as it gets US Dollars to recycle to keep the YUAN:USD ratio fixed. The export surplus controls the USD recycling... Any sudden change would mutually destroy the US & China economies, whereas a drop in China's export surplus would force them to revalue or reduce purchases...

    Japan - same, although not as controlled because the yen floats

    US - here's where the bond vigilantes actually exert some control, and I'm hearing rumblings that primary dealers are not liking the USD in the long term, potentially causing a rise in interest rates without the control of the Fed.

    I understand they are all in collusion, but the trend could start the change.

    Interest rates rising would actually make the USD more attractive, but drive an deflationary economy.

    I understand why you are watching DXY so closely, and that it drives GLD, and think DXY & rates are the primary macro indicators for the overall threat of deflation, and the trend of GLD & major indices (SPY, DJIA, etc).

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  10. ddn3f

    "FOFOA believes gold will go high and stay high (aka sustained orbit), but says silver will at some point break away from the true monetary metal and go down while silver goes down. Central banks hold gold, but not silver. What are your thoughts on that endgame?"


    This is probably the most important issue PM investors must have an opinion on. Getting it wrong could potentially do violent damage to your wealth.

    If we experience a repeat of 1980 you will have hopefully exchanged your metals for paper near the top of the bubble. If however this is a paper bubble then the exchange of metal for paper will have been a dire mistake which will result in your near total impoverishment.

    I'm reserving judgement but presently lean heavily toward the latter sentiment. I realize that new fiat schemes would then be introduced and it is possible we are on a fractal cycle which will increase into the next higher dimension, a global fiat currency (gasp !!!).

    But I believe that gold will, if global succeeds...or any other new fiat, buy you multiples more of fiat currency than will the ass wipe called Federal Reserve Notes or any other present fiat currency.

    As for silver I view it as a damn good speculation. Silvers stock to flow ratio is probably fine, huge amounts in China because their monetary system was based on silver, but it doesn't equal gold in so many ways.

    I could imagine a competition for world reserve status between gold (Anglo American empire) and silver (Chinese Empire).

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  11. Basil

    Just read your comment. If you don't like whats on the radio, change the station....

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  12. Some huge BoW numbers for GLD are showing up. Let´s wait if they hold up!

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  13. Gary

    I would suggest to move the comments section to the subscriber section.

    Unless you get it 100% correct there will be whiners. I don't want the background noise to fog your thinking.

    Thx

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  14. GLD red - biggest volume since the May top. GDXJ red.

    It would be so much more entertaining if you had to be in the same room as Gary to post on his blog, and everyone else could watch. He would rip your arms off and beat you with them.

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  15. For me the toughest call is do miners go up with stocks or down with metals if both are reversing.

    Discuss.

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  16. Sold SLW holdings today. Small amount, small profit but fine with me.

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  17. Believe it or not GLD was top BOW for the first three days of its $15 drop in Dec 2009.

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  18. I can't see miners going up with the metals going down, at least at the start. They will probably sniff out the bottom and start up early, IMHO.

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  19. Gary,
    I hear what your saying on the whiners. It really frosts my ass too. Bottom line, when we get to turning points, action here goes up. A lot. Back in April, the traffic here was insane. It`s a percentage thing. We pretty much have a core group of people here that are really special but the more traffic we run through here, we`re bound to pick up a few 8 balls. Gary, I guarantee you, the next shitbird(one of my personal favorites :)is right around the corner. You have a very loyal following that thinks the world of you and I dare say many would like to call you Friend. Are you going to punish all of us because of those few? Really, I`d like to know. This issue might as well be dealt with the sooner the better because the more volatile the bull gets,the more whiners. How to set it up, who knows. Wanna solve the problem? Blog open to members only, they bitch, they go bye bye. Solved. Just one way. The good being done here for the many should not be ruined by the few. You realize you have created a legacy here? Think about that. I hope you make the good choice. Thanks.

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  20. pepper,

    thanks for the BoW alert! I hadn't even checked BoW for GLD today because it was UP all day (or so I though!). Closed slightly below yesterday's close which makes it eligible for BoW listing. Yeah, that's a pretty big number for GLD, although in terms of overall volume it's about 2 percent of the total dollar amount that changed hands today on GLD.

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  21. BOW; buy on weakness.
    SOS, sell on strength.

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  22. My Mom just texed me and asked "should I buy gold?"

    Folks, the bell has rung.

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  23. We all need the background noise and opposite opinions to keep ourselves in check. It just words typed on the internet by people we don't even know.

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  24. In case it has gone unnoticed Gary is trying to increase the number of subscribers, hence the interview today.

    There is no way this blog will ever be for subscribers only. Get over it.

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  25. High,
    If the noise on the blog becomes too much of a distraction I will close the comments section and have my webmaster develop a subscribers only blog adjacent to the premium website.

    I did the interview today because Tekoa requested it.

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  26. Please do a subscribers only blog. I love the positive posters here, but hate the complainers. I think that banning some of the complainers would do us all a favor.

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  27. The problem is Basil is a subscriber ... god knows why ... all he ever does is point to all the missed calls and claim we should all just be long and holding till the end.
    Again ... not sure why he's here if that's his position.
    Every time I see a comment from him it's always the same ...
    A subscriber only section won't get rid of him :(

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  28. But also keep in mind what groupthink does to investment (or any other) decisions. need a free flow of ideas.

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  29. Gary

    Could you please define noise as it pertains to this blog. Thank you.

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  30. I see many posters, Poly, TZ, DG and many of you that voice counter opinions without being disrespectful. Gary can ban those who are just trying to be aggravating.

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  31. Noise is complaining and whining just to hear/see yourself. If you're going to complain about a position or a call at least do so when the call is made (not with hind site) and then propose an alternative (eg. DG, Poly, pima, Alex and others ...).
    Don't just come on and say this or that call was wrong after it's obvious to everyone.
    And telling us to go OLD TURKEY is NOT an alternative.

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  32. I wonder if Gary gave Basil a refund the second around? If he did, I'd have to drop my subscription as Gary would have lost his mind. :)

    I remain long everything from before, as uncomfortable as it is. There are lots of good reasons for a pullback but I'm willing to ride out a draw down before further gains if necessary, and some of this stuff I want long term anyway.

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  33. It's not possible to ban people on blogger. I don't want to ban people from posting anyway.

    I have no problem debating a difference of opinion. I do get irritated when it's obvious someone is only trying to aggravate me.

    To some extent the blog is making it hard, or maybe I should say harder, for me to focus on what I need to do.

    There are many excellent traders here and at times I find myself listening to their opinions rather than making my own decisions. Or maybe I should say their opinions are influencing my decisions.

    Case in point Poly and Bernanke are both very bullish. They are both excellent traders. I found myself paying too much attention to their reasons for why gold would continue higher despite a strong dollar. Keep in mind I am just using these two as an example this is happened numerous times with numerous posters.

    The correct decision for me was to take profits on the indecision candlestick and then step aside and see what happens to the dollar index. I don't care whether anybody else thinks the dollar index is irrelevant or not. In my opinion it is the key in my decision to stay defensive or get heavily invested.

    Maybe the best thing for me to do is to just avoid reading the blog most of the time.

    I find myself listening to other traders what I should be ignoring them and listening to myself.

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  34. Why is it that money is so misunderstood? Is it because we are taught nothing about the most important foundational framework of civilization in our grade schools and even our universities?

    Very few economists even know what money is. If you think it important to understand what money truly is then you should watch these videos on the subject. For most it will be the most comprehensive education about money you have ever received.


    http://timesofgold.com/?page_id=37


    I hope this isn't considered noise Gary.

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  35. I think everybody is influenced by others, even if it's just a little. This is one reason I step away (not just here, but from the computer entirely) for a good portion of most days.

    If it's throwing you off, I don't mind stepping out for a bit. Last thing I want to do is muss up my cycle guy. :)

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  36. Gary,

    I'm not wildly bullish, I'm just long.

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  37. A month or two ago, Tim Knight offered his comment system for free. I would not want this to become a social network like his blog, but his comment system does allow you to ignore certain posters. This ability would help us all.

    Personally, I like professionally made comments with some facts, and perhaps a chart or illustration to help verify your comments. Jeng has a free screen capture tool that is simple to use and unobtrusive. Go to http://www.techsmith.com/jing/free/

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  38. "For me the toughest call is do miners go up with stocks or down with metals if both are reversing."- Cory

    If you're sure stocks and miners are reversing, trade those instead of trying to guess gold's reaction. I don't know which way either is going, but it adds an unnecessary variable.

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  39. Excuse me, I meant stocks and metals.

    If I was confident they were reversing, I'd just trade those.

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  40. I just read about this new etf; FSG. Dbl log gold/dbl short snp. You action junkies(cough ww cough), that ought to make your heads spin around like bobble head dolls.

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  41. Day traders call noise anything that detracts them from trading the wiggles. Such as CNBC in the background with the talking heads telling everyone what to sell, buy, hold. News is another distraction, the debt debate is an example, the tsunami in Japan. They don't want to hear about it. However, stating an opinion is not noise, especially if someone has an educated guess, a chart to share or what they bought sold that day and why...

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  42. I have never left a comment on this blog but I do follow the this blog (and of course as a subscriber to SMT, the subscription site as well) and try to READ the blog every day. The information is extremely informative to novice investors like myself. Please Gary do not turn off the blog…if anything, make it a requirement that someone is a subscriber in order to post a comment. Thanks.

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  43. Gary I enjoy your blog very much...I think you do a great job, day in and day out...I have been surprised by the amount of responses you give each day; I can only guess to the amount of energy that requires.

    You do what is best...as an aid...perhaps... a cultural change is needed then here...perhaps a simple understanding that bloggers should be blogging to the blog not to Gary directly would suffice...in this model, you can choose to read when you see fit, but it is understood that there is no obligation for you to respond, nor should offense be taken.

    Plenty of us leave the computer for periods of time to clean our heads, I see no reason why you shouldn't be allowed to do so as well..

    Again thanks for the great job Coach! And whatever works!

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  44. Gary,

    You mention in the interview a gold pullback of $50-$70 to change sentiment. My impression from the nightly reports was an expectation of something greater. Will you clarify?

    Thanks

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  45. It appears there was a bollinger band crash in spy, was there not???

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  46. G'day from Downunder. I am relatively new here but have a couple of suggestions that might make it easier for Gary.

    1] A few people here post non-stop, ad infinitum about the most inane things. Chit chat etc. totally unrelated to investment. You know who you are and you need to GET A LIFE outside of this site. If Gary [and the rest of us] have to spend an extra half an hour a day reading through your crap it detracts from investing. You are also wearing out my scrolling finger!

    2] Some of you ask Gary 5, 10 or 15 questions a day. Why the hell he bothers to answer you is beyond me but it sure sucks up a lot of his time. He is NOT being paid to be your personal advisor.

    3] Positive or negative criticism is one thing -- flaming and nagging are another. We have an Australian expression for you lot -- PISS OFF!! If you don't like Gary's advice, go somewhere else.

    Sorry, I was never very diplomatic. Hope this helps one of the best blogs on the net.

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  47. Russel, et. al., while I agree that the whining is completely obnoxious, there are times when alternate opinions and views can be valuable. If we all think the same thing and do the same thing, are we learning anything? Then we are just "cocooning" a new term used for only looking at things on the internet that agree with your own opinion.

    My only problem is that a lot of the naysayers get really personal with Gary. That is not appropriate.

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  48. Hayek vs. Keynes

    Round 2, crank it up!


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc&feature=player_detailpage#t=84s

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  49. Elaine,
    Exactly the issue. There are some really good, at times Heated Debates` here, but hopefully everybody get`s something useful and positive out of it. Everybody benefits and we can all grow together. But these malicious attacks are another matter. Nobody wins and it makes a bad situation worse. I`ve gotten very frustrated lately, I`m sure I`m not the only one but if I spew here, it starts putting out negative waves for everybody. Ok, I`m done :)

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  50. Gary, I just read your comment about the blog.

    My input is, take a few days or a week off from the blog. Tell us you are doing so in order to set our expectations. Then alone, imagine that you have nothing (no blog, no SMT premium, etc.), and then re-create your world as you want it, piece by piece. Then communicate again.

    IMHO.

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  51. I'm in the process of creating a comment section on the website for subscribers only.

    That will eliminate the "free info" from the blog and most of the discussion about the nightly reports will be moved to the subscriber only section.

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  52. Gary,
    I subscribed for your opinion. If I want Bernanke's or Poly's, I can read them myself and come to my own conclusions. Stay away from reading the blog if it is having that big an effect on you. The nightly report answers most of what I am looking for anyway. The verbal sparring adds little.

    From your call to get in to your call to get out I added another 6% to NAV. Thanks, that is what I am looking for.

    I want your pure opinion and calls, the others can start their own newsletter, like the highly regarded Beanie Blog.

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  53. Hi Gary,

    Good move concerning the blog. I was surprised when I first realized that most of the information in your newsletter is easily gleaned from this blog. I'm a subscriber, and I appreciate the move to subscription only access. It keeps out the riffraff.

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  54. I think QE3 will come soon. August or september.

    The dollar is acting very weak consider the stock market action.

    " Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pimco, and Peter Fisher, head of fixed income at BlackRock, say the Fed is preparing measures to counter the slowdown"

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  55. That will give us the three year cycle low.

    We might get a short term rally in the dollar soon but it will rollover.

    If the Fed is preparing something the dollar will soon rollover and the next cycle low in gold will be a nice place to add.

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  56. I think we will soon se a pullback in gold and the market will rally.

    30-50 point correction maybe.

    I dont think it will be more than that if the FED are preparing something. I know Gary dont agree with me but thats fine..:-)

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  57. There is much talk about somehow using freshly created dough to buy up mortgages and houses and trying to kick start the economy where the bubble popped, in housing.

    This Soviet style central planning has been proven to fail over and over again. Are these people dumb or is there some ulterior motive?

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  58. Gary

    I like the new plan. It is better than the alternative. I know it has crossed your mind...

    Can't wait to post on "the other side"

    Thx

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  59. Gary,
    Your style of trading is a unique, refined form of swing trading, which is the only type that works for me. I cannot control risk without a swing. I can see where day traders, momentum and trend traders might be bummed out by the discipline you exercise for long term success and preservation of capital. I find myself agreeing with your decisions much more often than not. Yes there are some disadvantages to swing trading but I do not think that they outweigh the advantages.

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  60. Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pimco, and Peter Fisher, head of fixed income at BlackRock, say the Federal Reserve is preparing measures to counter the slowdown.

    “We’re not looking at a recession yet, but we’re at a tipping point,” Gross said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’re at what we call a stall speed in which corporate profits don’t grow, jobs aren’t created,” said Gross, who is based in Newport Beach, California.

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  61. The loss of any of the key posters whose accuracy and insights are seasoned would be significant.

    Who'd go away?

    Didn't this commentary lose 2 or 3 to me important posters after the high-cost option was created?

    Where's the guy who made $16MM?
    (and lost a pile of it but kept enough to keep everyone in burritos?)

    Where are a couple of others?

    There are 5 key commentators in addition to Gary who make this commentary of value to me, just me. Will they move to the subscriber commentary?

    Basil has a problem. He's articulate but imo experiences archaic wounding that won't heal. He's a subscriber.

    Many subscribers after the May drop went after you as did some just recently when they missed this quick vertical move.

    Gary, you're doing better than anyone else or I wouldn't be here.

    Weird that you came forward to help and to get some burritos for being the good guy. You're doing great.

    Choose who you engage with. The group will blow off those 1 quart shy.

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  62. Reduced oil prices are supposed to keep the economy going.

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  63. hey dipshit,
    the price of oil might say $92 but the gasoline price still says $3.70in my part of town. Unless the gas price comes down significantly i dont see how the oil price will help.

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  64. Gosh I'll miss the comedy from beanie!

    Gary when you set up the site can you reopen the 15 month registration special for us lurkers to join :-)

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  65. Slumdog,

    The fighting with Basil is worth the price of admission :)

    It's funny the timing, I was just speaking on the phone this morning with a friend-subscriber. We observed that perhaps the blog could sometimes became a distraction for Gary (as for anyone) and had the potential to undercut his objectivity. Almost just what he wrote later.

    BTW Twitter told me somehow that there are around 640 followers of garysavage1

    ReplyDelete

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