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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been made.

1,012 comments:

  1. Damn!
    My QQQ position didn't get filled.
    Oh well...

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  2. Gary congrats. By the book as usual.

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  3. Made at 3:57?! Since I've never placed an after-hours order, should we leave it to get filled on the open or strategically place it sometime in the morning?

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  4. Gary,

    Very impressive. From what I could glean from your public comments you were spot on. I'm now a new subscriber.

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  5. Dave, some say buy at the open, and some say buy at the dips, so maybe do half and half if your trade fees are not so high.

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  6. Couldn't be more dead on Troy!!

    Troy said...
    Gary,

    I just read your message about the grief you are getting.

    For every 1 that gives you grief there are 10 of us that are learning and have profited from your service.

    DON'T LET THE IDIOTS GET YOU DOWN."

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  7. Gary,

    You must have so many subs that your grief from dirtbags is short lived...atleast I hope so!

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  8. kaboom! missed one of my SSO fills by 26 cents but bought more before the close. first dip tomorrow i fill out the remainder.

    i think gary deserves some props here. especially with all the zazzing he took yesterday.

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. PLUS this SoS thing is neat and all but if you actually look at effective volume, or hell even accum/dist and not some wonky php code on a website, it's on like calgone.

    that new low was not sold into at all. even stronger divergence than the june 23 low.

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  11. Damn today made me so hungry my stomach is going to eat itself...I gotta eat something immediately!

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  12. Low Tax,
    just keep throwing `em out there brother, somebody will bite sooner or later.

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  13. Gary,

    In case you thought my post is a grief, it is not. I went short at $1665 last Friday and I just had to laugh at the ridiculous up move. Just want to make it clear :-) Boy, it is really hard to short a parabola.

    here's my post an hour ago:
    sp down, gold up. sp up, gold up. hahaha, ridiculously strong. maybe no down move until margin increase.

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  14. Deluise, what if there is no dip?

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  15. 86, don't get me wrong, I'm long with Gary. But these things worry me. Especially the 10yr yield...

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  16. Low Tax,
    just funnin as usual. It feels good to have the stress bleeding off. Every time I thoght we hit bottom, I`ve been adding a little long. By 3;45, I was getting wound a little tight. But you, listen to Gary. Added QLD into my IRA this morning at 69.15. Cool. Thank you Gary.

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  17. if there's no dip i guess i'll just live with my half position. if tomorrow seems like a trend day maybe i'll go to 3/4 early on.

    i'm not super excited about being long here, mind you. i think most people know this is just is sort of a BS rally.

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  18. re; last post, But you know, listen to Gary.

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  19. SW,

    Its impossible to short a parabola, unless you are shorting on certain days within channels...anyone who thinks that they can short a whole decline of a parabola is simply nuts, its impossible...you will lose all your money before you catch the top

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  20. Bought beat up shit yesterday & today AKS WLT DD also a SH hedge on the FEDS that I had to pull out of the fire, overall good day see what happens now.
    Thanks Gary

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  21. W2,
    is TQQQ a dbl or triple. I found the fund but not the leverage.

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  22. Gary, SOS on SPY is -$410... I know these things are terribly predictive but that's a big number. And we haven't hit the last update for today...

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  23. 86,

    Triple..gotta go eat im starving..talk to you later brother.

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  24. W2,
    A few posts ago was kind of funny; you were looking longingly up at the grill. I figured you`d just help yourself!

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  25. Loaded up on QLD also although still wanted to buy a few % more but ran out of time.

    Added some DZZ also...just to keep things interesting ;-)

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  26. Gary,

    Been a subscriber for about a year. Nobody is going to get all the calls correct. Bottom line for me is that my account is worth quite a bit more due to your guidance than it would have been without you. I will be renewing my subscription when it comes due (no brainer).

    Thanks for doing what you do. Stay focused and let your long term track record do the talking.

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  27. Ain't this great yesterday i was Herbert Hoover, Today Gordon Geiko, I love the smell of fear it smells like money. Until tomorrow who knows what it smells like. S&P 1170 8/2010,09/2008,05/2009,11/2004,8/2001,12/1998 I thing they were all Tuesdays

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  28. how about a disclaimer every ten posts reminding folks that gary is giving advice based on his experience and education.

    Gary doesn't control your trades and isn't a broker... his fees for that service will undoubtedly would be far too high for 95% of us here. yuck yuck.

    if you do not like his calls ignore his advice. also, deluding oneself into believing your posts are for the benefit of all is, in my opinion self-aggrandizing.

    1 do stop buggin' Gary
    2 do stop speaking for anyone but yourself
    3 conduct yourself as an adult
    4 be interesting and engaging

    This post has been brought to you by the letter M

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  29. At ease,

    Thanks for your kind thoughts

    In France at the moment. But apparentely curfew in some places close to London....Martial Law in the UK, unbelievable

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  30. Sophia,
    We just arrived back home today in Ruislip, they had closed down businesses early and are boarding up storefronts. Evidently organized riots expected throughout different areas in London. So far it's been quiet this evening here. Perhaps with more police and alerts it may calm down. Glad to hear you are in a safe place. Worrisome times.

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  31. Wow! My best day since the glory days of AGQ. Should be a rocket ride to the 200DMA. Gary got this just right. Very few writers did. Anyone who is still complaining is just out to lunch. If you refuse to buy during fear and insist on buying during exuberance no one can help you avoid losing money. Use Gary to get the guts to do both.

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  32. DG,
    Yeah, was really getting worried, but I took the trade knowing Gary knows cycle bottoms well. Still a scary ride. :)

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  33. Today would be day 38 of the 40-45 day cycle. So im thinking maybe a little more volatility ahead. Perhaps the reports out of the US are trying to add additional confusion by saying that more austerity measures are required and people like me wait and miss the boat. I have to remember though that going long in a bear market is ultimately a sin and whilst risk is on, gravity is pulling her down.

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  34. William Wallace,

    Yeah, It looked like a reversal last Thursday, so I thought the top was in. More, I didn't scale but all in. I will learn my lesson if this yellow monster continues. If not, thank god and scale out until it hits Gary's D-wave target!

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  35. Great calls Gary! Thank you so much for your service.

    Been a subscriber for a while now at the premium site, but - do you think there is any way you could tell the crowd (in a nice way, of course) to keep the off topic comments to the blog? It would be so much easier to follow. I love it all, but... it's a bit much to read it all when it's not really about your report...

    Love the crowd lots, but it would be great to be able to choose when to read the chat (here) and when to read the more on topic stuff.

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  36. Everybody knows the bounce is coming. The market is extremely oversold, but it is hard to get the exact bottom. Russell 2000 rally 5% in the last 20 minutes of the day, but tomorrow, who knows??

    Cory , do you add any RWM for this bounce??

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  37. bought some spy calls at the bottom yesterday. today I feel good like the sun is shining out of my ass :oD

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  38. Gary - Don't let it get to you when people are down - they're down because they're still learning about controlling their emotions while trading, and that's a big part of what we are learning from you. I have already learned a mountain's worth.

    Anonymous 24/7 blogs mean some are just going to post their feelings in-the-moment even though they should be more careful. Remember, they think they're at home in their bedroom in their skivvies, not addressing a worthy guru. Please don't quit! You are a success: If one of us can't figure out how to make your moves successful in our own portfolio, he should find someone suited to his temperament.

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  39. Gary,

    Its sad to hear that so few are getting to you and causing you even the slightest bit of grief, but it is understandable….but there is one thing you need to keep clear in your mind, you are helping people make money during really hard times, me and my family are very grateful and wish we could some how repay you, but what can we do other than express our gratitude with only words? There is not much more we can do and only hope that in our heartfelt thanks you keep this truth forefront in your mind and heart. Your commitment to your subscribers from what I have witnessed in the short time that I have been a sub is unparelleled to say the least, and im certain that many of us have no problem saying…we not only appreciate your knowledge and experience, but also your calm and commitment to sharing these amazing attributes with us. Thank you Gary.

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  40. If you guys believe PMs are going much higher and you don't want to sell (but you are worried) protect yourself by hedging a little. Then you win either way. If PMs skyrocket your gains will eclipse the pittance you paid for puts. And if PMs tank your hedge will erupt in value, wiping out most if not all paper losses in your longs. And now with inverse x2 and x3 ETFs out there you don't even need to buy puts and worry about expiration dates.

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  41. Hearing that Germany is telling Italy and Spain to sell gold to pay their debts.

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  42. Let me put it another way. If you trade and you do not hedge... you are only one lousy trade away from destroying your brokerage account for years. Stop losses will not always save you, especially in a runaway market. You are NUTS if you don't hedge. Totally nuts. Capital preservation is always Rule # 1. Before all other rules.

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  43. Can someone please explain SOS, or post a link with info? Thanks.

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  44. silver flying AH...weird...

    plunges down this afternoon and now up 3% AH

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  45. Be careful on shorting silver here. Silver is more fond of a weaker dollar and likes to run with the general market better than gold.

    Disclaimer: I am usually wrong....

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  46. alijowa,

    SOS = Selling on Strength. The Wall Street Journal publishes this stat here:

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/5pngkn

    Large SOS numbers indicate distribution by institutional players and indicate a reversal is on the way.

    The reverse is BOW = Buying On Weakness. It's found in a tab on the same WSJ page.

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

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  47. aljiowa,

    P.S. The only SOS/BOW numbers Gary regards as significant are those for the SPY, the S&P 500 spider.

    Le Fou

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  48. SOS = selling on strength
    BOW = buying on weakness

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  49. Thank you Le Fou! One of the best communities here!

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  50. question about my trade - placed trade when saw the portfolio change, it got in at 4:01, i placed it market-day order. now it is unfilled and there's a link that says 'attempt to cancel.' will this trade automatically place at the open or since it's time period is 'day' will it go away tonight and i need to get another one in for on the open tomorrow. thanks for your help!

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  52. Danno,

    re: hedging...

    I don't really see the point if one's account is not big enough to move the market.

    If you're long QQQ or GLD (or whatever) and you don't want to get killed if the trade goes against you, why not just reduce your position size?

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  53. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  54. DAVID and Courtney, Check in the morning but it sounds like you shall have to place another order.

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  55. @Catbird

    "I don't really see the point if one's account is not big enough to move the market."

    I'm not sure I follow you. My point was simply that hedging (for the average Joe) is about insuring yourself against calamity. Hedging should be done even when you are absolutely SURE you are right, not just when you are worried and have reduced the size of your position. Hedging should always be done, at all times. Not only can hedging save your account, it can also make you a lot of money if there is a totally unexpected and violent swing of significance.

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  56. Danno,

    I assumed you meant (for example) that if you are a gold bull and hence are long a lot of GLD, you should also hedge with some GLD puts.

    And my take is, why not just sell some of your GLD? Doesn't that accomplish the same thing?

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  57. i'm with catbird. hedging is for people who can't move in and out willy-nilly. which is none of us.

    when i'm unsure of my position, i lighten it or sell it altogether.

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  58. Sell on my system is really flying up now and is at 1670. If it sells tomorrow it would be a $150+ gain, it's largest ever.It is currently on day 26 and we NEED some down movement soon to avoid a major parabolic top.

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  59. A monkey could throw darts in todays market and make money. But how many folks shorted the market last month? Now that takes brains.

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  61. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  62. I was 100% short from June 2nd and closed them out yesterday before Obama spoke and got long 58% on yesterday's close. I bought the other 42% before today's FOMC annoucement and crapped my pants when we rolled over. I turned the computer off and missed the last hour rocket shot only to see my all my trades go from red to green. I'm up close to 28% YTD and should we get back to the 200 DMA I'll be 35%+ and plan on jumping back into PSQ, DOG, SH, RWM or maybe going 'Old Turkey' the next 1 1/2 years BEARX or GRZZX. I'm looking to scale out of longs at the 200 DMA and back into inverse ETF's or bear market mutual funds at the same levels. I'm thinking I'll be at or near 50%+ YTD w/o buying options.

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  63. ken,

    what would you have done if the market kept going lower after the FOMC announcement with no turnaround?

    Not being a jerk here. Curious what your stop was.

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  64. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  65. You don't go old turkey on the short side. That us a recipe for losing money.

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  66. Gary

    So I followed you and everyone into the stock market trade yesterday.but only in the kids account. First non PM related trade in years. only committing 20% of available cash and so far its green..another good call.

    however, I am going to say you are correct on QE 3 being "officially" announced, if we even believe that QE (whatever they call it) ever stopped. With Zero, or negative rates built in for two years announced today, debt ceiling raised and will be raised again if need be...and now, today, the wife was checking the kids bank accounts....nothing but fee's! We ended up closing a few accounts..however while talking with the manager, we asked if we had missed a notice about fee increases..he said yes and more on the way. Coupled with post a few days ago of BoNYMellon charging for deposits, seems they want you to either pay debt, spend, or speculate chasing returns. They are NOT going to pay you interest of significance. Can it be anymore official?

    So two calls right in 3 days..what have you done for me lately?...LOL..But I have been on the blog for about 4 years and I think 3 as a sub. I can only think of 2 times, PM related that could be considered "missed". They were both buys and the early entry was corrected in 6 weeks maximum. and it was a drop of 100.00 maximum. With respect to May '11 silver, You had already outlined a plan and strategy to be executed on the open of NY trading. While lots of us, you included "lost" some profit, the call was correct.


    Gold may still run its cycles, but we may see the smallest D wave of this bull. Its not 2006 or 2008. And it sure looks like no one is going to run to Dollars or US debt except the FED. Just a thought.

    The youth of the world are rioting. Sometimes for no reason. A life of no job and no freedom will do that to people.

    Its called a currency event. You really can't fool all the people all the time.

    Anyway, whenever the next big pullback or d wave comes in gold, I am stocking more physical. its ugly out there.

    @ Alex in Montana..driving out to Banff next week with my two eldest boys. I estimate 40 driving hours..probably passing through Montana somewhere.

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  67. Sorry guys didn't see the action yesterday US hours as friends around but...bought back more or less where I had been stopped the night before and want to thanks Gary for encouraging me to do so....

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  68. @ Catbird

    I suppose holding less of something would protect you (after a fashion) from the position moving against you, but whatever shares you still hold could be wiped out. My belief is that a person should hedge no matter how small his position is. Why lose any money?

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  69. The Fed did announce QE3 but instead of them buying treasuries they will have the public do it.

    That is, keeping short term rates at zero for the next two years, means that investors (especially large institutional investors who can borrow at close to funds rate) will borrow as much as they can and buy longer term bonds thereby netting the difference in yield. This will support demand for the long term bonds and drive down long bond yields. That is why yields sank today. And low long term yields will drive more and more investors into other asset classes to support stocks and commodities price appreciation.

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  70. It is 'possible' that instead of selling off... gold could churn sideways and correct over time. Just FYI. Not likely IMO but possible.

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  71. You guys gotta see this...
    This is the viral video of MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan just absolutely kicking ass and taking names today re: what the President needs to be doing right now. And he's really starting to look like an early 90's Mel Gibson, which is also pretty awesome.

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/08/09/ratigans-rant-heard-round-the-world/

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  72. Hi Gary, first post here. Intrigued by your analysis. When do you suppose the 200 DMA will be hit? by next week?

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  73. @ Wav_ridah

    The problem is the USA is a house built on sand. The sand is oil and global oil supply cannot keep pace with global oil demand. We have reached a turning point. GDP growth relies on higher and higher volumes of oil each year. It is not sustainable. The whole house of cards is about to come crashing down. There is no substitute for oil at this time and we have run out of time to find a substitute.

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  75. Garesky,
    Your answer is on the SMTP subscribers nightly report.

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  76. One thing that I don't understand here is the sycophancy. If you "followed the trade" then you bought QQQ at the open on Monday and close on Tuesday. NQ is slightly down right now so overall the trade is break-even at best.

    If you do this kind of trading (or gambling) then you have to have good timing. Of course, I am not confident that the broad market is going to rally, so have a different perspective.

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  77. We're due for a pullback, but I'm staying long with what I have as this is the best possible scenario for metals. I'm hoping to go Old Turkey and stay in my miners.

    The threat of QE3, or it's actual launch which has been promised suggest gold has much further to go in the future. I'm willing to ride through declines and rather attempt to sidestep, I'll rely on my strong hand status to buy into those declines. No way I'm giving up strong hand status. It makes it much easier to make the difficult decisions.

    I'm not saying gold won't "crash" at some point, just that I'm not worried about it. Just another opportunity.

    Good luck today.

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  78. That is "rather than attempt to sidestep". :)

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  79. Hi everyone,

    I have a question. I did not get my QLD position filled before the close yesterday, but got it filled pre-market for $74. I don't know much about pre-market trading and want to know more - does anyone have a recommendation on where I can get pre-market charts and quotes? all I could find was Nasdaq.

    Cheers!

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  80. Shalom

    Just curious if your messing with the qqq play?

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  81. Shalom,

    If you don't hedge your long positions only a matter of time before your ass is grass. 2008 killed a lot of bulls who could have made enormous fortunes had they been hedged even just 5%. At the bottom they would have had boat loads of money to buy to their hearts content.

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  82. In 2006 gold rallied 33% with no pullbacks in little over a month. Hasn't Gary said at the end of a C Wave the average move is 25%, or something like that, with no pullbacks? I'm guessing he isn't saying that now because it doesn't fit his cycle counts. But like I've been saying since I came here, his cycles are going to fail when the size of the event is greater than the scope of the data backing his cycles. If you have a hundred year event you need many times more than a hundred years of data.

    IMO worst cases for gold are we consolidate or grind up slower than stock for a couple weeks, and then we blast off for another 250 point move. A major correction doesn't make sense to me at this point.

    I already know younger people who aren't wedded to the market who are pulling their retirements out of the stock market and going to bonds or gold. My guess at this point is the stock rally will be lower than expected

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  83. Blindweb,

    I think you make some valid points. However, gold can still EASILY pull back to it's Bollinger Band midpoint or even 50 SMA and that would not be considered a sell off by any means. We have to make the distinction between 'sell off' and profit taking. Profit taking can happen at any moment right in the midst of a multi-month rally.

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  84. Currently Gold stocks are cheaper now than anytime since early 2009. Well worth considering if you think Gold can gold these levels or head higher:

    http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/08/gold-stocks-cheapest-since-early-2009.html

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  85. If you're long equities for a bounce out of a panic low and assuming the bounce holds, then note that past such episodes have included significant "shaking of the tree" weakness and some ugly closes followed big up gaps the next day.

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  86. Hulk,
    thanks for the post. Not really digging this action this morning.

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  87. David and Courtney,
    If you placed a day trade and it didn't get filled, you will have to place another trade for the next day (today). You won't need to cancel the day trade order as it will cancel itself out. If you want to fill a trade that day or next day, have to place a trade for GTC (good til cancelled). So sounds like you will need to place another trade today either day or GTC. Right now, the stock looks lower than close of yesterday, so you may get in lower anyway at market price or limit.

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  88. W2,
    I just saw EUO ROCKET up to 17.01! And you thought it was a wasted trade......cough..cough..choke...choke...

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  92. 86,

    The Euro is not going no where anytime soon.

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  93. Danno,

    Yes after posting that I was thinking that a daily cycle size correction wouldn't bother me.


    Also if we get a surprise rally in the dollar from Europe collapsing again I think gold will withstand that much better than the stock market.

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  94. Haggerty,

    No, I haven't bought the QQQ or any index. Focused on miners and PHYS, but also have not added any more PHYS lately.

    Danno,

    Don't worry about me, my "ass won't get grassed", and I don't have need to hedge. Thanks for your concern, though.

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  95. well at this point anyone who bought the breakout yesterday is in the red. let's see what the strong hands think.

    got last SSO buy order at 39.05

    need to see /ES close hourly below 1033 to worry me

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  96. U.S. Dollar is sacrificed. Europe needs to stabilize before U.S. does.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  97. Although the markets exploded higher yesterday, I don't think there was a swing low.

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  98. This is why I should wait for the swing low to buy.

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  99. Deluise,

    Well judging by the response yesterday that's a big majority of people on this blog.

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  100. @ Shalom Bernanke

    Famous last words pal. Good luck with that.

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  101. Any concerns here?

    Just a shakeout of everything gained yesterday?

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  102. Yesterday, DG was looking for a gap lower and was disappointed when there wasn't - well, it's here today. Is this a good sign?

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  103. maybe, how many people actually bought monday or tuesday? seems to me that this is the call that people here are having an exceptionally tough time following.

    (boy this whole making money thing sure is hard isn't it)

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  104. Hey Danno,

    If you're always perfectly hedged, how do you ever make money. You keep paying double commissions, double spreads, and have twice as many moving parts that can fail, I'll just focus on proper sizing, pal.

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  105. Shalom Bernanke,

    With 2x inverse ETFs you don't need to keep buying puts every month. Anyway, I'm sure you already knew that because you are so very wise that you don't hedge your positions! Man you are freaking crazy. The next 2008 is going to spank you hard and you won't even see it coming.

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  106. for those who didn't follow gary to buy yet, are there any buyers?

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  107. Danno,

    Just keep paying those wide spreads and double commissions to have zero net exposure. You'll be rich in no time! LOL!

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  108. locked and loaded, let's piss off some zerohedge commenters

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  109. Gary,DG, Poly, Alex,

    Any concerns here?

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  110. Nibbling on some miners here. UXG primarily.

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  111. Wow looks like were back to the nasty declines...markets down almost 3% already

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  112. I have no stops in and 100% committed long at this point and bleeding red right now on this mornings gap down. I have no stops in at this point as I don't want to get whipsawed out. I guess I'll start to get scared on a SPX cash close below 1100.

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  113. Ken, why don't you place stops so your profits can't turn to losses? I think you said you were +28%? The only thing worse than letting those profits evapourate is to let green turn red, no?

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  114. This is the first of many gut checks for new longs. Buy the dips and sell the rips works for those undercommitted at this point. By the end of the day I'd bet that this mornings open will be a gift. If the ES level just below 1100 holds this is just a bull flag formation and we're just hours away from a massive short covering rally. The move up at yesterday's close happened too quick for shorts to cover, let alone add more. Hopefully bears shorted this mornings hole and will quickly get burried in it. They'll realize this when we break the 1180 level that held us in overnight and start to panic cover. This is nothing more than a bear trap, but who knows. Long and strong baby!

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  115. The huge SOS and 10yr yield freaked me out yesterday before the close and I bailed on all my QLD. Then I fretted all night about selling. I used this morning's gap to buy back half of my position. Will buy the rest on AN ACTUAL swing low!

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  116. Alright i have a major peeve i need some info about. EVERY TIME i place a fidelity order (market/day), it fills HIGHER than the prices i'm looking at either in the google finance feed or even the price listed in the order preview screen at fidelity. NEVER have i gotten the good end of a wiggle. for example, one of my orders last week placed way higher than i expected based on current prices - and if you go back and trace the price movement that day anywhere near that time it never got that high on the charts!

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  117. SPX 6Day, 10Min Channel Chart

    http://screencast.com/t/DS9JuHNYfTo4

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  118. wordemup ken, you've had the hot hand last few

    a little rally music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV97roslmt0

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  119. Dave,
    perhaps I`m mis-understanding, your placing market orders? Why not place limit orders? Set your buy price.

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  120. I'm not looking to make 10's of thousands but rather 100's of thousands if not millions. Markets like this only come around every so often so I'm going to make the most of it. By the time people realize what a gift they've been offered the opportunity will have passed them by. Right or wrong that's how I'm playing it. I wish I would have been more greedy in November 2008 - March 2009 and looking back I was too afraid to get run over. I'm not going to let that happen again. These longs are just rentals anyway as I'm w/ Gary on getting back to or even making news 52 week highs by late September. I think we rally hard until the Q3 IRA/401k statements go out in the mail and then the lights go out on the market. I plan on being 100% short going into Novemeber for the slow bleed into Q4 2012 - Q1 2013. That's how I see it.

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  121. Gann
    great chart what is that 1140 on sp?

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  122. I will be a buyer if the S&P can break over 1152 and hold. Otherwise I will wait and see what happens today, and probably make a small purchase near the end of the day if the weakness continues.

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  123. They always bone on Market orders, same problem here,use limit orders. I also have Fidelity. Market orders basically they can but it when they get around to it.

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  124. Dave, make sure you refresh the bid price on the right side to make sure your price entered for a limit order is between the ask and bid price.
    I always go lower than the ask price depending on how it moves by nickels or dimes or quarters. Then wait for the next tick down. Or just wait for the dips in price and enter a market order.

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  125. All time high in GLD - problems in Europe. I guess we're kidding ourselves thinking that Europe will solve all of their problems anytime soon... How can gold crash under these circumstances?

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  127. Gann,
    Great chart. Thanks for sharing. A

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  128. yeah, it seems short term that 1140 ish on SPX (SP 500) Should hold, if it falls back into the down channel , that would be bearish

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  129. Thanks Gann for sharing that chart and perspective. appreciate the good note. :)

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  130. This is going to be a long week.

    (Keep it to yourself, Ken. Can we give you the grief now? You don't mind being the scapegoat do you?)

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  131. I was chastised yesterday by several folks on my stance on gold vs. QQQ but I doubt anyone here will say today, "maybe you were right Hack"...

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  132. Gann did we breach that level?

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  133. Looks like were below 1140 in S&P

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  134. Not so greed, I am buying in lots into
    the QQQ trade on dips like today

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  135. Maybe you were right, Hack...

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  136. I really like seeing that 1776 print for gold futures.

    Miners are doing pretty well today. At least the ones that I own. And Wheaton is coming back to green.

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  137. Bill
    I just looked at that....
    Big miners on the sos list

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  138. Hack. I am with you. I was saying yesterday that if you want to buy something on weakness then buy miners.

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  139. Some days I really hate this shit....LOL

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  140. From Bill Downey--Gold Trends-like Gary offers excellent analysis



    We discussed last night when the (red circle) weaker trends do not kick in, the market has a potential of having dramatic moves up. That is the beauty of this cycle. WHEN ITS NOT WORKING --- it is a "clue" that the market is very strong and the potential for dramatic moves to the upside are most likely during these times. Many people think that cycles are inconsistent but that is because they fail to realize a cycle inversion which produces the opposite effect is really the same cycle.

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  141. "The safe way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket."

    ~Frank Hubbard

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  142. 86 and WW,
    It's like being on the teeter totter today, no roller coaster ride yet.

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  143. High 5,
    Everytime I see that face, I crack up laughing.

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  144. Well I'm getting pretty darn close to getting stopped out, this will have been one expensive and quick loss.

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  145. 86,

    You hugging a beaver for comfort...lol?

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  146. If we don't snap back down to new lows for the day there should be a pretty good rally within a 1/2 hour.

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  147. at ease,

    More comfort please...thanks

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  148. gut wrenching indeed! you really gotta weight the potential upside with the downside though. still a good time to be long but i'm biased of course.

    people not willing to risk much could probably put their stop at the wick of this hour's bar.

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  149. Looks like dollar driving this, compare with PMs, both inverse to equities

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  150. WW, If you can't handle the teeter totter, no way you can get on the roller coaster. ;)

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  151. Rob,

    Just looks good on the charts. MACD and other indicators look good, plus the rally yesterday should convince ppl to pile on if the low today holds.

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  152. Give it to me if you wish but I own 100% of the moves I make. I know the risks, assign probabilities, and measure the risk and reward. I see a lot more reward in buying equities at their yearly low than buying bonds or gold at their multi-decade highs. When people act like I'm crazy I know I'm on the right track. Common scence works folks. Has anyone ever heard of "buy low and sell high" or "be greedy when others are fearful" I think both apply right now. That's all I'll say as I don't want others to blame me or Gary for how they manage their own capital. Good luck to all whether you're long, short or just watching the show!

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  154. This market is absolutley nuts.

    I am still long miners but very weary of what a correction in gold will do to them.

    I refuse to buy stocks based purely on technicals, and therefore will never buy a non PM related stock until the ponzi financial system is dead and buried. Call me pigheaded or ignorant or whatever, I just can't do it.

    Long PZG, HL, EXK and AXU.

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  155. W2,
    Yeah right Pally! Doing taxs, gotta get this stuff to the cpa. One ass whoopin after another! LOL. I guess that`s what I get for a life of sin and crime(but I really like being a sinner).

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  156. Greenspanconscience,

    Same idea here, but not worried about miner positions. I'm more concerned about PHYS, but the miners have already taken their beating, IMO.

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  157. I`m just blown away by the volume on spy.

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  158. In fact, if I were day trading I'd look to the miners. They're dying to open a frosty can o' whoopass. :)

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  159. Not looking as good now.. maybe still on track.

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  160. Down 4%? This markets in serious trouble.

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  161. Anyone still looking for an entry, be careful, here. SPY 5min. bear flags, have been breaking down, from the open. Could still be another push down. I realize most of you aren't daytraders, but you want a good entry, right?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/augertrade/folders/Jing/media/0e95fd0a-3bf2-45b7-a4cb-fea2993f0ec9/00000559.png

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  162. at ease,

    I like teeter totters, and roller coasters...but the get me sick...lol I get car sick too, but love to drive.

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  163. Shalom and his mentor Greenspan are wise.

    A nice trade would have been some puts on XLF yesterday. Reminds me of the good old days in 2008.

    Interesting that silver miners are following the market down.

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  164. Dollar homing in on the top of the bear flag channel on a daily. Everythings OK. we haven`t broken to new lows. Holding and gritting teeth.

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  165. Update on 10Min SPX Channel:

    http://screencast.com/t/D9qpN6UmCr

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  166. SPY Daily Low at 12:30ish EST than a rally. For entertainment only. :-)

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  167. RMB 6.4133 The highest ever.
    Moved from 6.44 last week's high to 6.41, up .5% this week.

    Maybe they'll get the message and take the hit on their past piling of paper, realizing that mercantilism is the wrong game?

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  168. no1 is 100%. The next few days should prove you wrong.

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  169. Thanks Gann for the updated chart. Not a good note. ;)

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  170. Frank,

    Not sure if you misspoke, but many silver miners are up and some quite substantially. AXU up 4% atm.

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  171. It was some time ago and I was slow in hitting send. SIL was -2% at the time and also SLW, which is the only silver miner that I own.

    Weak g miners like JAG, GSS, and THM were all down too.

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  172. Gann
    Thanks again for your analysis.
    A

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  173. Jeff,

    Or we just keep falling into the close, as his been the case for the past couple days.

    Not happy with my positions at all. Markets just can't get a footing no matter how wildly stretched they are. Feels like 2008 all over again.

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  174. SB, I understand that miners are tremendously undervalued against gold near term, but if indeed gold is hitting its D wave, I would think that would temper any gains on the miners somewhat...near term.

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  175. When's the cash on the sidelines coming in ?
    Is oil still gonna pay for the war?

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  176. I think this is a fade and test of yesterdays levels on lower volume so should end up going higher

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  177. Mr. Shalom - you are correct about miners - I sold my SLW and EXK too soon. I need to adhere to Livermore's rule - "ride your winners and cut your losers". You are definitely our resident expert on miners...

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