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Thursday, August 25, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

That portfolio change has been made on the website.

260 comments:

  1. Feel,
    Congratulations on a very good short trade by the way.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Visitor said...

    I know this is a gold bug blog and all, but while you are over analyzing gold, Sugar is the place to be as I let you know last week. SGG is making new highs today."

    Hmmmmm. September sugar futures fell from 31.85 yesterday (I actually sold my last one at 31.80) to 28.92 less than twenty-one hours later. Percentage wise, that is almost as much of a drop as gold.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gann, your 7.37am post and chart is clearly showing we're entering and printing a DCL. We just need to wait it out to confirm the daily cycle.

    At this point, this isn't a broken parabola (I'm not for a second suggesting it will not be) and if we can hold the line here and print a DCL, the technical damage will be manageable.

    That would leave this IT cycle on week 8, some 2 to 3 plus months from a major ICL.

    Obviously many scenarios remain, but we should not focus on only one. As this first daily cycle was so powerful, there is a school of thought that suggests this IT cycle has topped and so with many weeks remaining, this will unfold as a failed IT cycle and a Gary D-Wave. I would say this has a decent to high probability of unfolding, probably better than 50%.

    However if we can escape with minimal technical damage, a base could form which could allow for 2-3 more powerful daily cycles, that on the high side, send gold to $2,220-$2,400 by late fall. This has lower probabilities, but should not be discounted as this would present a major opportunity. Don't forget, this is now a mature bull market and can easily shock to the high side. We also have worldwide macro and geopolitical headwinds that could fuel gold. Not to mention an unpredictable FED.

    For now, we should soon get some positive price action from a new daily cycle, maybe it tests the all times highs too.

    Back to the beach for me, family vacation. Excuse the iPhone errors.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey nitro,

    I was also someone who haas never owned an apple product until my kids brave me an iPad for fathers day. My initial thoughts were this is a nice toy, but I really wanted a Stihl chain saw. Haha. After using it for the last3 months, this device is awesome I have also used it for online trading...no problem. One can also use it as a phone, as there are many apps.

    Posted from ipad2

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  5. natanarchist,

    I went with the Stihl saw, no ipad. :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. GLD just filled this morning's gap down.
    Let's see if this holds, miners are doing quite well, at least the biggies.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SB,

    I really want the Stihl as well...my B day is coming up so I have been leaving hints...haha

    I like your miner plays. Same with Alex. Made some nice profits on some of your guys suggestions. Many thanks

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  8. Alex

    I found a chart showing what we were discussing earlier. This shows how the miners held their price for a few months after the gold bubble peaked in 1980 and then went on to make higher prices for a few years.

    Gold vs Miners 1974 to 1984

    Note the Gold chart uses a log scale.

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  9. stopped out of SPY at a small loss. wacky tape here!

    next micro target 115.16
    macro target 112.89

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  10. Silverhound,

    Thanks again for all the great charts. What's most interesting in the last ones posted is that the miners made their quickest and largest gains AFTER gold topped. They didn't just hang in, they screamed higher.

    It's the anticipation of gold pulling back that shook people out of miners. Of course they are affected by gold prices, but they can also march to their own tune. In fact, people that want to stay long the "metals trade", might sell gold and buy miners to stay in, even though they know bull is going higher too.

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  11. Possible inverse H&S Pattern SLV?

    http://screencast.com/t/XWYHvYnJh


    Poly

    yes even if GLD /SLV are now turning down. it is a Process, with many HeadfakeS ALONG THE WAY, SO I DO NOT RULE OUT A Possible lower high or something.it may happen, thats why i didn't want to case Indeces here,i think i could get a better entry long the Market.

    we may get another pullback on the SPX DOW Jones etc:

    in which case Metals should rally imo. but the Process of Bottoming in the Indeces and Topping in Metals has Begun imo

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  12. Of all big techs, NFLX is green? NFLX? That bloated overpriced pig of a stock that the insiders have not bought a share (but sold almost all) for nearly 2 years now?

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  13. I got partial filled on 200 GLD short @171.56

    Order was for 500 so not sure what this portends...

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  14. I meant "even though they think the gold bull is going higher, too."

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  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  16. Miyagi,

    Thanks.

    ..............


    Stop at 174.50 keying off of yesterday's post-breakdown recovery high. Will add below 168.50

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  17. SB

    What's not to like about miners :-)

    I know one thing. If they spend the next couple of years doing what they did in the late 1930's and 1970's it'll be worth any short term pain....

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  18. Silverhound,

    That's my thinking as well. I'm just trying to get all my positions and hold on. I don't even get excited about days like this, until we get 12-15 of 'em in a row!

    I still expect they'll take some work before really moving higher as the only game in town, but we can use that as opportunity to add. :)

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  19. I'm not just holding for gold to test it's highs or get to $2000. I expect I'll be in long after we pass $2K.

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  20. " St. Deluise said...
    stopped out of SPY at a small loss. wacky tape here!

    next micro target 115.16
    macro target 112.89"

    The market get crazy before Jackson Hole . think we see the low of the day..

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  21. Nat,

    You and others who posted that they never used an apple product before and now love it just proves apple has done a good job with their interface and marketed well to people who aren't "technically inclined". My point was is it a must have accessory behind a laptop and a smartphone.

    I can trade off my smartphone too but I like to have charts going at the same time. So far the closest I can get at doing that on a tablet is using a linux based tablet with moonlight (linux's silverlight) running a .web version of my forex platform.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ahhh.... Options trading....

    I have learned that once they go well into the green to let them go.

    ReplyDelete
  23. SB

    Here is a current chart of the DJIA starting from the 1990's bull to now. Compare it to the 1970's chart I posted earlier and you can see the similarities and the long term trend is the same. I'm not a fan of exact retraces of history but the patterns are so close it's spooky.

    DJIA chart

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  24. and yes I think we'll see better prices in the miners as well but it doesn't hurt to have some skin in the game just in case.

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  25. Broader market thinking-

    My history is in equities/indexes. Gold & PMs is a new and fascinating area for me and Gary's approach spurs me on.

    Anyway, near-term, stock market...I think today is the beginning of the set up for Jax Hole market action.

    Will the lead up to JH be bought or sold? If sold, today will remain weak and also tomorrow with SPY 112 as pull. This will afford BB the opportunity to "come thru" and "save" the day. Even if he does not actually come thru until after JH like last year market he can save the day nearer SPX 1000. That would really juice how "needed" they are and fill the hopper with more shorts.

    Gary has indicated no QE3 because there's no stomach for it and they did not flinch during the recent waterfall.

    If we rise into JH we better reverse soon (as in NOW) and the banks and AAPL will have to get up off the floor. Aiding this set up would be short covering in front of Ben.

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  26. Think I may hold off on this one. Made a quick buck shorting gold after waiting for several weeks. Not a big fan of rushing into PM stocks until we get some more confirmation. This could easily go either way.

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  27. HnS pattern forming on the qqq's over the last two days suggests we may see lower prices leading into tommorrows meeting. It hasn't broken the neckline yet.

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  28. Sold my GLD puts and am having a little bout of sellers remorse. O well.... Like to be a bull more than a bear. Have been a bear with sore paws for a while. Back on the Bull with GDX.

    SLV is starting to look descent too, but i won't touch it until i hear from Gary.

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  29. I think this Mkt. action has something to do with Irene. Mon., Tues morning is going to be a bitch on the East Coast. This one is coming right up the chute, heading for DC, Wall Street, Boston. Live in NC and the Outer Banks are going to get Hammered unless this thing moves off to the East. Plus J Hole is starting, so the CNBC gang might be @ Home Depot buying all the plywood, putting it up tomorrow.

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  30. For you tablet traders:

    Something to check out.... I haven't had time to yet. For you traders wanting trading platform capability in a tablet you should look at the Acer Iconia the version running Windows 7. They have a Honeycomb version (probably the most common, of course) but there's a W7.

    ReplyDelete
  31. The parabola started in silver, then moved to gold. Could it now be moving to miners?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Checked out the Acer Iconia last Sat. A guy there liked it better than his IPAD because it has a USB port. Can hook a printer, expand memory, etc. $399

    ReplyDelete
  33. Feel,

    I have the iconia tablet at the office with my charts going and my smartphone broadcasting my 3g signal to it. :) work pc blocks my trading platform program so that's what I have to resort to.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Part of me is wondering if this move up by the miners is simply short covering caused by the unwinding of the long gold/short miners trade? I recall similar action when Silver collapsed. Chart does look pretty bullish though.

    ReplyDelete
  35. N1tro,

    are you running W7 or android?

    Smartphonewise I'm running an EVO and get a good 4G most of time.

    I'm kinda over it though...

    ReplyDelete
  36. I bought a Gateway netbook at Office Depot on sale for $229 for the wifey, but then she got interested in a tablet and smartphone (iphone vs. android,) so now she's trying to figure out what to do. She only needs something to run the Internet and do a little texting, and have something on trips while I "hog" my laptop. What to do......

    ReplyDelete
  37. Is GDX the "go to" plain vanilla miner ETF?

    If so, how come the narrow $13 Hi-Lo 52 week range with all gold itself has been thru?

    thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  38. GDX has been up high on the buying on weakness list the previous couple of days.

    ReplyDelete
  39. short the SPY here. target 114.66 stop 117.46

    market has had all day to make a move and blown every single one. and i don't think mr. b will be announcing anything especially dollar negative tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Interactive Brokers just posted the following message:

    "As a result of the continued volatile trading environment, please be advised that exchange margins and/or house margins are likely to increase overnight and over the next couple of days, particularly in the metals. For exchange specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly."

    ReplyDelete
  41. SILVERHOUND

    Thanks, thats a great comparison you have with those charts. Appreciate your posting it!

    ReplyDelete
  42. Feel

    In case you hadn't noticed, that is what we have been discussing. Gary just made a suggestion that maybe the hot money that moved into silver and then gold is now moving into miners. Hence the portfolio change.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Gary, in the words of the immortal Black Dynamite, you are one crazy motha. I'm staying parked on the sidelines for now, but this is a hell of a call.

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  44. Margin hikes -

    I remember the margin hike discussion during the silver parabola in May...

    I don't recall if there were hikes on the way down???

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  45. There's no need to hike margins on the way down... damage already been done, it would cause more selloff.

    ReplyDelete
  46. I wonder what will happen to GLD if the criminals in gov't ever decide to confiscate gold again, like in 1933?

    I have no idea if that happens or not, but maybe that forced people to buy miners. Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Miyagi,

    What if you need more damage?

    ReplyDelete
  48. Feel,
    On the other hand, there is a margin raise on gold futures tonight at CME.

    ReplyDelete
  49. "The order was rationalized on the grounds that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse.[1] The New York Times, on April 6, 1933 p. 16, wrote under the headline "Hoarding of Gold," "The Executive Order issued by the President yesterday amplifies and particularizes his earlier warnings against hoarding. On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency,' under penalty of $10,000 fine or ten years imprisonment or both."[2]"

    It feels like we're still a little ways off before being called "hoarders", but I'm getting more like that every day!

    ReplyDelete
  50. Only three more margin hikes to catch up to silver.Can you spell manipulation, gold has dropped more than $150 and they are still increasing margins--the whole system is so corrupt at this point .

    ReplyDelete
  51. In case you hadn't noticed, that is what we have been discussing. Gary just made a suggestion that maybe the hot money that moved into silver and then gold is now moving into miners. Hence the portfolio change.

    *****************

    Silver,

    LOL.

    Remember, I'm the guy that had to ask if gold was in a parabola.

    What kind of racing is that car doing in your picture?

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  52. I had SB pegged as a hoarder when I first signed up. I'm sure I spotted him at Homedepot stocking up on ammo and tinned food ;-)

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  53. Once the exchanges announce the margin hikes, I'll use the pullback in gold (and hopefully miners) to add to miners.

    Let's see how they do it, for now it's just a heads up from a broker. Should be soon, like tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Feel

    That ones an old muscle car circuit racer.

    If you haven't already, try signing up to the premium site, all will be revealed :-)

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  55. Silverhound,

    That wasn't me, I was at home busy watching all my stuff so nobody gets it. Hoarding is no good if you can't hang onto it. lol

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  56. Maybe the margin increase is going to be in silver again.

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  57. It feels like we're still a little ways off before being called "hoarders", but I'm getting more like that every day!

    ********************

    Shalom,

    This is part of my fascination with PMs.

    When this issue was previously discussed someone (Gary?) made the point of why would they do that now since the dollar is unbacked? What's it to them if gold is 20K/oz. ?

    ReplyDelete
  58. C'mon SB

    Nobody owns miners, you have to share the love :-)

    Now Gold....thats a different story, so shiney and nice mmmmmm

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  59. Do traders of copper, oil and commodities believe when those margins are hiked, that there is active manipulation occurring?

    ReplyDelete
  60. Feel,

    I don't know the answer to that, but my best guess is that gold is money like it always has been, even if not backing a currency. Gold up=loss of faith.

    I'd guess it's because they want to be the only ones that control money, whatever form it's in.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Gold is a competing currency, like the Euro, except they can control how much Euro is created. (supply)

    It's much easier to make the dollar look acceptable vs. the Euro, than gold once faith is lost.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Side note:

    SVM foretold the silver margin hikes last time by staying weak the days immediately ahead of the hikes, and it's doing it again although not from new 52 week highs this time.

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  64. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  65. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  67. i did notpost this morning as was thinking of just stoping

    internals----i questioned what i saw. which was

    Broads---negative---sold half qs at a gain on morning up open. sold balance little later---was stupid not to sell all on the open.

    GOLD---was neutral to tiny bit positive.

    Silver was neutral but positive bias.

    Miners----I was surprised here of the positive bias.

    did i buy miners---no not at first but did add a wee bit a little later---my work was ell of a lot better than execuon. one other reason is my $ from tue sale does not sttle till tomorrow. i am in the penalty box and need settled funds in trading account. but i did have some free $ that i handled badly.

    Internals----What you need to understand is i only get AFTER the close. So if they are negative and market opens down---I will miss
    that chance and need to sell into weakness. I do alwaws think of what Gary says. Wile gold was making last run, internals were strongly positive each day. That is until big Crunch down day. I will post these without a lot of comment but that does not mean they will always be right. tie it into your own work as i will tie into yours. SB and others were spot on handling the minors. i still will say for 90 plus % following Gary is your best option.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Oil is a buy here. Refiners and majors. Watch CVI and XOM...Hurricane action.

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  69. GDX should have rose the past two days with a strong stock market.

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  70. Shalom,

    I just realized I'm corresponding with YOU. You're the "THEY"!!

    I'm crying with laughter. Hope you've boarded up in Carolina...

    I've never had physical or paper (yet) but if I did have physical and found someone who would accept it as payment for whatever then I would consider that money.

    I know that, for example, Canadian dollars are money but I don't know anyone around my parts who would accept them for goods or services. I do think it would be easier to find someone willing to accept gold even now in these "ok" times.

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  71. Smells like a selloff into the close for the market here.

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  72. Mr. M,

    Are you sniffing something?

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  73. Longs are gonna get their charms squashed by the jaws of life.

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  74. Just drywall dust.

    Feel,
    Funny you mention the Canadian money story, I can't tell you how many time it has happened on our trips that I've handed a Canadian dime or other coin in with the rest of the change and have had it returned to me because it wasn't "money". It's a frikkin dime!!! There are so many US coins in circulation here at par, sometimes thems Americans drive me nuts.

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  75. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  76. I am going to guess broad internals will be negative toninght. If can get a small rally will buy a tiny amt of puts. I am not so sure abt bernanke at referring to QE 3.

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  77. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  78. seems a new LOD in SPY coming. wonder how many people will be sticking around for the next hour once that goes.

    gold should bounce at least to 1800 to put in a right shoulder. probably even higher as the gold dip buyers still think that's a can't lose trade.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Gary et al,

    That's a great question re GDX being next in line for a parabolic move. I'm still not sure gold has completed its parabola as I would suspect enormous volume at the peak of a parabola that is culminating a 2 1/2 year rally. Double to triple previous high volumes is normal for a climax reversal, and we haven't seen that. it was high, but not explosive.

    Also, the GDX is setting up beautifully for a powerful run...IF it can close above the 64.15 mark and hold. I followed you into GDX this morning, but in smaller size as I want to see the miners prove themselves by breaking above this mark, where I will add a bit more. I'll also add on a successful test of the breakout, if it occurs, meaning a tag of the 64 range and a reversal higher. I'll then add again if the GDX breaks above the peak prior to the test of the breakout.

    So, in a nutshell, what I'm saying is the miners have a bit of work in front of them to confirm continued strength, and if they do, there will be several points of entry to build a meaningful position.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Long 1000 SSO @ 40.19

    "holding breath"

    maybe another strong EOD finish like the last few...

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  81. At the moment I am worried a little by the large SoS number of GDXJ.

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. did get some short spy ----long silver - gold-----good levels 4 now---not huge amounts.

    in investment account left with exploers/juniors---almost every up--some large.

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  84. GDX lagged gold while gold was on a tear. OK, maybe it will play catch-up when stocks rally. Stocks rallied the past two days. GDX sold off hard & gave us a failed breakout. Tough for me to initiate a position when its acting like that. Plus, GDXJ has been consolidating below its 200 DMA. The high beta names should be outperforming, not under-performing. Something is amiss.

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  85. Caution: Another Gold Margin Hike Imminent


    To HKMEX,NYMEX,NYSELIFFE traders:
     
    Thu Aug 25 13:54:57 2011 EST
     
    As a result of the continued volatile trading environment, please be advised that exchange margins and/or house margins are likely to increase overnight and over the next couple of days, particularly in the metals. For exchange specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/caution-another-gold-margin-hike-imminent

    ReplyDelete
  86. I guess my nose is ok smelling out the selloff at 11:42.

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  87. lowered my hedge from 189 and 186 to 181 and 178. If gold takes off I have less blow out in the puts, and I am covered on the way down. Pocketed the cash difference in the account, where it rots.

    Othere than that, I am not doing anything now. My puke bucket is full already.:)

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  88. AAPL did quite well today for a stock that dropped 20$ AH last night.

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  89. new theory: marginal new low past the 8/9 to 8/23 trendline that everyone and their momma has drawn in SPY. THERE is where the institutional jerks finally back the truck up into all that fresh selling. 112ish.

    assuming of course ben don't make it rain tomorrow. but either that's the best kept secret in town or it ain't happening.

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  90. Gold moving again...unease in the market place. Europe still can't seem to arrive at any solution. Plus fund managers are trying to shake out investors so that they can buy into the market cheaper, much cheaper

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  91. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  92. Ironically SIL is starting to look good too.

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  93. Some big blocks of GLD trading after hours, price of gold hasn't budged but GLD down 5$ just on those trades.

    Hmmmm...
    Also some big block 5,000,000 share transactions on SPY 10 minutes ago.

    Double hmmmmmmm...

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  94. MrMyagi, do you trade futures, or just equities?

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  95. Mr M

    I just looked at that GLD trade u mentioned. Looks like the price recovered. Is that due to thin after hours market?

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  96. Just equities and options, RBC doesn't have futures trading and frankly I have enough trading in one day to want more. Although there's money to be made there too...

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  97. SF Giants fan,
    It was the block trades. They took out all the "normal" sized 100-300 share trades all the way down.
    In my experience (from what I know (not much (quit putting yourself down (oh shut up (no you shut up))))... this is from selling as you take out all the bids below. If it was buying then the price would go the other way as you would take out all the asks above.

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  98. MrMyagi, Yep, I hear you, lately can barely keep up with Gary moves. Thanks for sharing another tool. I loved your Cyote sign. :)

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  99. credit goes to Serge at etf-corner, don't know where he got it from.

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  100. Mr M

    That SLV 2008\2011 chart is scary.

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  101. MrMyagi,
    Thanks for sharing, we dont' get a lot of funny laughs here. That one was good. :)

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  102. I just tried to log into my new trading account.

    It asked me to set up a password eight characters long.

    so I went for snow White and the seven dwarves

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  103. DP, it all boils down to how you build your system. Anything built on intraday data will generate much more trades, but if your system incorporates daily/weekly data and a large # of tick data then it slows it down a bit.I find it the most relaxing way to trade as emotional decisions are minimized, and I find I get more confidence in a trade when Gary's analysis lines up with mine.

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  104. As I mentioned yesterday looking at previous daily cycle declines... Gold got that bounce off the 30sma today, looking for another up day to backtest the 10sma at 1800 level...previous daily cycles have shown a continued pullback at the 10 and a bottoming on the 50sma...something to keep an eye on

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  105. $HUI GOLD Bugs Index Weekly Chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/3UVmUlUA

    We should findout next week if we Pop or Drop ?

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  106. WW, You did say that yesterday, good call!

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  107. Has anyone an idea of the time the Bernanke speech hits the markets? I read that its a closed door speech so maybe it will take some time to get out?

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  108. Everyone up the East Coast, you are all in my prayers as Irene heads your way. Stock up, batten down and stay safe.

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  109. 10 am ET

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm

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  110. Kinda eerie knowing that by 10:30AM tomorrow the market could be up or down 400 pts, and gold +/- 150. So many bets already in place for both outcomes. Incredible uncertainty. Anybody up for an option straddle?! jk

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  111. At ease,
    Nah, just dreamin.

    Actually I don't think the swing tomorrow will be THAT wild that a bet on both sides would pay off. I prefer to wait and see which horse gets out of the gate best and then ride that one for a ways.

    However, something pretty
    BIG is gonna happen in the market real soon. I can smell it. Wonder which way we will go? I'm glad I have plenty of dry powder...

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  112. Sleeper, I am betting it turns back up to attempt 2000, then corrects down hard after that, where I hope to finally load up!

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  113. Feel,

    Using the windows version iconia although I install linux onto it to speed things up. Using ATRIX 4G to broadcast. Been following the hacks for the ATRIX and it's so close in allowing me to run full ubuntu on the phone itself and running my trading platform through .web format.

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  114. FUBSY, I appreciate your comment. I always look for your insight:)

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  115. In case anyone is interested Big Ben
    speaks at 10am EST.

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  116. Although I did notice the potential of HUI breaking out after hitting highs a few days ago, I held of taking positions, waiting for confirmation, and ended up shorting gold instead. Well see what the action is over the next few days but the safe play here would be stay flat until we get a breakout above 610 and load up at that point.

    If this really is going to break out then theres plenty of upside left so theres no point in guessing/gambling and rushing into positions IMO.

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  117. Not convinced gold & silver will make a run at their highs so soon but I did buy back my covered calls.

    Long AGQ (double silver ETF) with a 10% crash insurance hedge (OCT SLV puts).

    ReplyDelete
  118. Try this...

    Go to StockCharts.com

    Pull up a chart of SLV
    2007-08-21 to 2008-10-28

    Compare it to a current 1 year chart of SLV

    Tell me what you see...

    "I think we are heading for a market shock in September or October that will match anything we have ever seen before," said a senior credit banker at a major European bank."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8721151/Market-crash-could-hit-within-weeks-warn-bankers.html

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  119. I don't believe the bond rates are going to fall any further than they did a few days ago.

    To me this is a measure of "fear".

    The markets should go higher from here.

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  120. Anything is possible. The question is... are you prepared for a wild swing either way.

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  121. You bet, if prices go lower I am a buyer.

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  122. Sounds like you have all the answers.

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  123. Danno,
    Just July to October 2008 must have broken a lot of people's financial lives, very few can just put it aside and wait it out.

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  124. I don't think i am going to get to afraid until i see the dollar going up like a rocket.

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  125. That will be our que to move to the country and eat a lot of peaches.

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  126. I have a feeling most everyone is going to get rapped! Both short and long...the inability to stay in one postion will kill most traders...anyways, I will leave that to the so many that are smarter than me.

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  127. The fly in the latest concoction is that GDXJ saw massive volume bid-hitting in a selling tail below 200MA ...

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  128. Are you guys ready for the super bull market in equities...coming within a few days to weeks? Once we take off, we're not gonna look back for years.

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  129. MrMiyagi,
    I stupidly had LEAPS (long term call options that did not expire for 18 months) on GDX just before the 2008 crash. I never sold them because they lost so much value so quickly during the crash that I threw my hands up and just kept them. Of course speculating with options was a dumb thing to do and I no longer monkey with that, but fortunately in 2008 I was able to afford to hang in there and wait it out. By Winter of 2009 the LEAPS had regained all of their losses. That was fine and I was thankful, but what annoyed me (and what I will never forget) is that I had been thinking about adding a 3% or 5% hedge (inexpensive out of the money puts) as disaster insurance right before the 2008 crash, but I nixed the idea because I was too cheap to spend the money. But if I'd put on the hedge in 2008, I would have made a MASSIVE profit during the crash. Massive. Since then, I never take on a serious position during uncertain times without a hedge of some kind. I'm not saying I never use stop losses on my long positions. I reserve the right to use stop losses too. But I always keep a hedge just in case disaster strikes. Not trying to beat a dead horse. Just sharing. I realize not many people are fans of hedging. But I'm sorry to say the risk with not hedging is that, one day, the market may gap down hard way beyond any stop loss loss orders and some people will not get their orders filled for hours hours (if at all) as the market free falls. One nice thing about a hedge is that once you realize you made a huge mistake that's about the time the hedge begins exploding in value... and you can ride that pig all the way down spanking it the whole way as your hedge morphs into one the best long positions you ever had.

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  130. Danno,
    I bet that 97% would have sold the options at a loss just to get some money, heck I have done that in the past. Your situation was a little different, LEAPs gave you all that time (some still would have sold) vs regular options even 6 months out.
    Personally I like day/swing trading best, I guess my short-term foresight is what made me a good air traffic controller, not too good at long term planning, except marriage...
    Before signing up here, I rarely had long term holdings, even now most times I'm out before most but that is what I'm comfortable with.

    A lot of great traders dispensing information on this blog.
    BEANIE, I even read your posts, I feel everyone has some insight that another misses, newbie or seasoned.

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  133. Michael --

    "The fly in the latest concoction is that GDXJ saw massive volume bid-hitting in a selling tail below 200MA ..."

    Agree. Another thing, which is pushed over here is that y'day GDX volume was above the average.

    My sources show it below.

    BTW, how do you distinguish MASSIVE bid hitting versus ask hitting?

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  134. Veronica --

    To my knowledge, following 2 time scales besides you major, say, daily timescale is beneficial to trader's bottom line. In other words, one need to include also weekly and 240 min timescale to the analysis.

    Can you advise on any website oriented on building mechanical trading systems?

    As I recall, you use MultiCharts. But you need to buy separately data provider for it, right?

    Also, is the EasyLanguage inough for your needs, or you use C++?

    Your sharing is appreciated.

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  135. DP, a Bloomberg terminal shows it or more accessible is Marketdelta.

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  136. Danno --

    I share your opinion on the options as a better risk management tool than stops.

    Stops fail in case of the morning gap-ups, or crowded markets when everyone is running for emergency exit.

    Can you share, if don't mind , the technical detail about protective puts for a long equity position?

    I.e., are those puts out-of-the-money, what is the strike, and how do you calculate amount of the contracts to balance the original position?

    BTW, hedging the long position with the puts has another benefit, connected with growing Vega in the case of equity adverse movement.

    I wish you good luck with your AGQ hedging.

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  137. Michael --

    I am a chipskate, so don't have much of a luxury to be hooked to Bloomberg or other pro tolls.

    Are you aware of any standard indicators (like VIX's) which would show you market sentiment versus heavy bidding on the bid or ask side?

    SOS a BOW do the similar things, BTW.

    Thanks for cooperation.

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  138. DP, how much volume transacted at the bid versus at the ask is a chunky data processing calculation and requires software firepower. Markedelta is the only one I know of and is not very expensive but there could be others that have appeared more recently...

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  139. DP, I originally learned about trading systems from a poster named Casualtechwatcher on the NEM Yahoo board. The guy has to be one of the best long term gold traders in the world as he had consistantly made $ since the late 70's.The one year I saw him in real time make over 700%!I do use Easylanguage.

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  140. DP,
    I don't have a special hedge formula. I just try to use common sense. One trade I have now is 200 Shares of AGQ (double long silver) hedged by 15 Oct 39 SLV puts, and some Sept 32 SLV puts I bought a while back that aren't worth much now but I didn't pay much for them either. I opted for puts on SLV instead of puts on AGQ because AGQ options are ridiculously expensive due to AGQ's volatility. The size of my hedge position I base on how worried I am. If I'm not worried at all it might be just 2% or 3% of my long position. (Epic disaster insurance.) If I'm stressed out that a sell off might be a higher probability I might increase it to 10%. If I feel I need to hedge much more than 10% I may think about closing my long position because it's probably not a good position. I do buy out of the money puts. Usually when I am wrong I am really wrong and the out of the money puts will increase in value rapidly in that case. How far out of the money? It just depends on what they are selling for. If there is a really good deal closer to the money compared to other options I'll buy a bit closer in. More important is time. How far from expiration? It depends on how imminent I think a potential sell off might be, but usually around 2 to 3 months from expiration. If I think the stock will hit a flat spot (sideways movement) I may decrease my hedge and/or roll it out to the next month. My way is a bit like Jazz. Relaxed and flexible. Not too many rigid rules. But I'm not a multi millionaire yet so there is a chance I have no idea what I am doing so buyer beware!! lol

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  141. At first I saw this basic chart and it looked really good

    http://www.screencast.com/t/6gE9b9zler

    and then I added this and it even looks better

    http://www.screencast.com/t/SefSgi9z

    We'll see if the FED can help or damage this outlook.

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  142. Gold is doing what Gary expected silver to do in April 14th report. 2 or 3 day scary sell off (back to 50ma) then back to new highs. Only difference is gold has had only had 2 margin hikes.

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  143. Here it is. Looks like the current gold chart.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yZwMRmxmpyQ/TaeqvlZXNXI/AAAAAAAADX8/11uQnn7N4-I/s1600/silver+test+of+36.png

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  144. SF Giants Fan,
    Nice chart. Can we have that all happen today please?

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  145. Gary,
    Can we have gold and silver do that all today please? I'd like to retire by the end of the day if it's not too much trouble.

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  146. Danno, I like your insurance plan, would have been nice when we were long on the silver and it took a dive.

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  147. This is a rather large margin increase on gold. I am surprised that the market has held up as well as it has.

    http://screencast.com/t/fdc6iQE5lL

    I suppose there are two ways to look at the margin increase. First, it removes capital out of long positions to meet the additional maintenance requirements.

    Or second, it provides reassurance to the long holder that the counter party risk is under control.

    Still, these margin increases usually break a parabola.

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  148. Danno,
    Have you figured out the best timeframe out to buy the options for hedge insurance? 4 to 6 months or longer? Do you take the profits if the market turns and buy more insurance or let the insurance ride until it expires?

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  149. Duuuuuude, do these margin increase stay on long term or just a temporary increase?

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  150. Dude

    Margin for gold as a % of contract price still needs to double to equal silver. More might be on the way after yesterday's rise.

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  151. Danno,

    Poor people buy insurance, rich people sell insurance. The 2008 hedging example you gave almost had me convinced of it its merits, until I remembered that. Buying insurance is never in your favor, probability wise. Although I do buy emergency health insurance; I never risk anything in options that I can't afford to lose, and that would put me in an emergency situation.

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  152. Remarkably bearish series of lower highs in GDXJ, JJC

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  153. Danno --

    Thank you for sharing the details of your approach in hedging.

    I did it a while ago, but for some reasons stopped doing that.

    I'll probably try to protect my position in the first portion of Gary's portfolio in such a away, since I am leveraging.

    YES, GARY, I AM OVER-LEVERAGING 4x THE MODEL PORTFOLIO, BUT NEVER WHINE! :D

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  154. Internals---this is fyi---use it at your own peril. If it does not fit with your methodology than ignore.-whatever, use stops.

    Broads--- not as clear as i would like to see.---i would rate as a slight negative. to me, it appears like small triangle with the bottom at about 1140. that is where i would cover any puts or inverses.

    gold---this is the big surprise----i would rate as extremely positive. scale 0 to 3---have rated for my use a 3. i do this for my own decision making process. as i have always said---listen to Gary. i have 3 price levels that would like to see gold clear---1777-1790--1810.----If we do, perhaps 65 day cycle will be restored topping in early Oct. For this to happen, would require a lot of strength in gold.

    Silver---A +2

    miners---mixed but rate +2. With gold so strong in rating----would be very surprised if miners did not do well-IF gold strong tomorrow.

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  155. As I was anticipating, gold tested the 10sma at the 1800 level and then dropped off hard, if the correction resumes as it has in previous daily cycle declines gold will pullback to atleast the 50sma at around the 1640 level. Miners may very well go with it. I didnt take the GDX trade because of this possibility.

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  156. Veronica --

    Thank you for answering in such detailed and informative manner -- I did not expect it! :D

    I hate, frankly, the EasyLanguage since it forces you to ride the same rail back and force. It still allows to make pretty powerful systems.

    Hope you don't leave us, poor SMT boys for too long time ...

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  157. fascinating, it only took a one day bounce to get folks on the busted parabola....with leverage

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  158. Blindweb,
    I have been friends with 5 true multi-millionaires. Not 'internet friends' but in real life. All of them were insured to the hilt. In fact, one told me he was worth more dead than alive.

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  159. Michael --

    Thank you for info on MarketDelta, i'll look at it.

    Appreciate your willingness to share information with SMT group.

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  160. "Poor people buy insurance, rich people sell insurance."-Blindweb

    Yep, and not just in trading but other aspects of life as well.

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  161. Beanie,

    You told us to get ready for the "super bull market" that won't look back for years. Please explain what you are seeing that everyone at this blog does not. We seek enlightenment.

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  162. I think that Insurance is not at all only for poor people... It is something for a lot of people (myself included) to have in order to have a peace of mind should something happen. I see it as money well spent should they never kick in, but if so I am protected.

    (Some SMT member whose daughter had a gall bladder operation and paid 2k instead of like 80k $ (darn it if I cannot remember who it was!)? That is what I call healthy protection, nothing stupid in that.)

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  163. ...at ease,
    I'll respond as soon as I can.

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  164. Blindweb --

    "Poor people buy insurance, rich people sell insurance."

    If you can elaborate on how SMT members can benefit on selling insurance, please explain it.

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  166. Our liability coverage is zero. Our balls, however, are enormous.

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  167. At ease, margin requirements fluctuate up and down depending on volatility of the underlying asset. They are never fixed. Margin requirements could decline as gold prices increase, if the volatility decreases. I don't see that happening for a long time though.

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  168. No bear trap, but pm longs will have their nads trapped.

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  169. not a convincing gap down in equities but also not bullish here either.

    still thinking a convincing little jaunty back to the 112/113 zone to fake lower out of the wedge everyone's looking at in SPY.

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  170. Close to being stopped on my GLD short (stop 174.50)

    watching my SSO and how it behaves after Jax Hole "news" begins trickling out...

    disappointing trades thus far...

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  171. How long is BB press conference and is it televised somewhere?

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  172. I'm not doing anything yet, but this is action I'll want to do some buying into, perhaps late morning.

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  173. GDX down almost a dollar. :(

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  174. Snp getting killed, as it should be.

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  175. whatever weird thing BB had to say it's already been digested.

    i think we're seeing the actual reaction now and now the kneejerk one.

    they are going to break the wedge lower to buy into.

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  176. We should see a test of the recent daily cycle low at lows $1,700's in the next few sessions. Choppy trading action in the least before any significant direction gets going, imo. Could be a great point to add on a test of the lows.

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  177. ole bernanke trying to buy himself some time until Sept 20. Hilarious!!!

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  178. Possible S&H Top SPY 10MIN:


    http://screencast.com/t/qASFEqvHUDHt

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  179. More margin increases, this time on NYSE gold futures.

    http://screencast.com/t/b4b9KUuzgTYQ

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  180. stopped out for $3/sh. loss on GLD

    these were the 200 I got partial filled on yesterday.

    turning attn. back to my struggling SSO.

    **************

    n1tro,

    I saw your last reply re the iconia, etc.

    Thanks.

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  181. I'm getting the feeling that anybody waiting until late Sept to buy what they want, whether stocks,metals, or miners will not get to make the buy easily.

    There is no way to make real money in this business without taking some pain, except for those that are sanctioned to cheat. The rest of us need to get in the way of danger.

    That's not to say one has to buy today, b/c we could easily get lower prices, but making a game plan around Bernanke is a waste of time and capital.

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  182. well kiss my grits, that looks pretty bottomy to me

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  183. AAPL just got up off the floor. Will the banks?

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  184. Seems to me there is a strong hint there that something could be coming in September at the next FOMC meeting.

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