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Friday, August 19, 2011


A portfolio change as been posted to the website.


  1. No idea whether this is the end of Gold's run, but SLV is giving up some clues, IMO. Something to keep an eye on.


  2. mostly holding over week end see posts end of last blog. Worth your time i assure you.

  3. silver seems to be getting some legs under it. I'd say once it gets going $50 will be no problem to it, unlike the last attempt

  4. Selling miners here -- some at a loss. I have a handful left, but I am assuming that any coming wipeout in gold will take them down as well.

    This has been a great spring, followed by a horrible summer -- the death of a thousand cuts. I would have been better off taking the summer off.

    I never would have thought that I would witness a parabolic top in gold and make absolutely nothing from it.

  5. Silver is a very thin, very emotional market.

    If the public is now ready to buy into the parabolic move in gold it's predictable that they would pile back into the silver market, especially now that the charts are showing a higher high.

    I don't think I would put too much emphasis on the charts at this point. It is so late in the daily cycle that we are going to get a move down soon. Cycles can stretch but they never fail.

    You are just kidding yourself if you think gold is going to go straight up forever. When it does decide to move down into a daily cycle correction it's going to take silver with it. And all the people that bought this breakout are going to get whipsawed out of their position.

  6. Here's the phantom bars someone here was mentioning yesterday on SPY.

  7. David,
    We did make money off of the gold move. And we made some more money today.

    What we are trying to do is control greed so that we don't do serious damage to our portfolio by getting caught when the parabola collapses.

    Eventually we will get a D-Wave decline. We will be able to take large positions at that bottom and ride the A-Wave which should probably gain as much if not more than this parabolic move, and the risk will be much much less.

  8. David,
    Once were sure the intermediate bottom is in one can take a large position in the stock market and probably make almost as much as they would have if they had ridden the entire parabolic move in gold.

    You are assuming a missed opportunity will never be recovered.

    There will always be another opportunity.

  9. Gary,

    I'm not complaining. Well, I am complaining, but my complaint is not directed at you.

    I was hesitant to get into the miners trade, so I staged into it and wound up getting in late. I also hesitated to sell on the QQQ trade, and wound up taking a beating yesterday.

    In both cases, I would have had a substantial profit if I had followed your timing, but I was skeptical/complacent. As a result, I have a modest loss for the summer -- less than %3, mind you, but I never would have thought I'd be in the red when gold was going parabolic.

    In the final analysis, I move too slowly to be an effective trader. I have only made money as a buy-and-hold investor. The lesson is learned. I will wait for the D-wave bottom, buy then, and walk away for several years.

  10. I think miners' weakening all through the day foretells more downside in the S&P, Nasdaq, etc.

  11. Stocks look like they might get smashed into next week.

    And since I'm not short the S&P, I'm unbiased in this call.

  12. By the way, from what I see in the bond market, we are going to have one hell of a D-wave.

    We are clearly on the verge of a deflationary vortex. 10-year bonds yielding under 2%? Incredible.

    I suspect that gold will be the last thing to go, as it was in 2007, before deflation really takes hold. The action in the miners feels very much like it did then. At some point the dollar will rally huge and we will see a massive drop.

  13. concentrated on silver and short broads today. In line with notes last night

  14. So what? The trade is to get into miners now??

  15. http://www.ronpaul2012.com/pages/mbtku.html?sr=11-0819&mid=11&pid=0819&first=Ralph&last=OBrien&email=robrien@mchsi.com&zip=52411&amount=25

  16. Does anyone have a reason to buy stocks right now?

  17. certainly an ugly looking weekly candle in SPY

    ambiguous close.

    chart-wise it looks like we've got lower to go, i guess i just question whether or not they're going to allow it to get to that level since by there most of the bears will have covered.

    i'm really over-thinking it though. i've got a system that is neutral here. what i SHOULD be doing is following that system instead of picking bottoms. tough lesson this week.

  18. David,

    The miners are weak, no doubt. However, I'll buy yours early next week if you still have 'em.

    If I was not in position to take more pain, I'd have to make the same call and exit, but if one can stay on board until stocks find some support, miners are the only place to be. Not for the initial rally where the S&P jumps 5-6% in the first day, but over the next several months. It's not like we didn't see the potential downside when we bought.


    For a guy who claims to only come around every once in awhile, you pop up here quite often, and usually to try and rub sand in people's eyes. Nice going, you must be a lot of fun at parties. :)

    I'm still long all my stuff except the 70% of PHYS I sold over the last week+. Some up, some down, but no concerns. I'm expecting (or prepared) for stocks moving 10% lower and bringing miners part of the way with them. Here's another thing I know, fellas like you don't make money so get their "payday" chastising others.

    Have a great weekend everybody. :)

  19. wolf33,

    Thanks for the link, I'm on it. :)

  20. SB - I'm not rubbing anything in anyone's eye and I'm not sure why you would take my comments like that.
    I'm making plenty of good money. NXG at 1.43 PZG at 1.15 MFN at 7.25 I won't continue because that would be rubbing it in your eye. Further, I believe my comments are helpful, "don't go all in, all out", "let your winners ride" and here's one you can use today to make money in the future. "Buy Sugar" (I use SGG).
    Have a great weekend everybody! (You too SB)

  21. Shalom,

    No question that miners represent good relative value right now.

    But I have to assume miners are going to take a hit when gold inevitably returns to the 200dma, at least initially. There will inevitably be leveraged players who wind up having to puke their shares into that drop, and that's when I want to buy for the long haul.

    I won't be selling any more miners next week, but I do want to have cash on hand for that event.

    BUT as Gary says, if you want to know the sentiment of the market, check your own gut. Right now I am as miserable as can be, despite having suffered negligible losses -- just opportunity cost. Presumably other gold mining investors feel the same way. That probably means something from a contrarian perspective.

  22. David,
    If you want to know the true sentiment in gold check sentiment traders public opinion poll.

  23. Gary,

    I'm sure gold sentiment is off-the-charts bullish.

    But sentiment vis-a-vis gold miners (a much smaller subset of investors) has to be awful.

  24. Hi Gary,

    Do you have any recommendations for where to buy physical gold (or silver/platinum)?


  25. No visitor. You should be shorting sugar

  26. I just checked and GDXJ is trading at the same price it was in mid-October 2010, when gold was $500 lower.

    That has to be a negative for gold-miner sentiment.

  27. I've been talking about the divergence in miners for weeks now. So GDXJ is nothing new.

  28. Gary,

    My comments are not directed at you -- you've managed a very difficult environment exceptionally well. And as you point out, you've been talking about the divergence in miners for six months at least.

  29. MD,


    I've tried them all. California numismatics has the best prices and free shipping and insurance on any order over $2000.

  30. David,
    I just don't want you to get bummed out because you missed an opportunity.

    There will be hundreds of them over your investing career. We have a huge one brewing right now in the stock market.

  31. 400 is what we are looking for but that doesn't mean we need to buy on Monday morning.

    I will go over a possible scenario in the weekend report for what might happen if 1100 is breached next week.

  32. Many thanks, Gary. You are indeed a great coach.

  33. My account increased 66% this month. I could not have done it without this blog. Thank you all

  34. er, I sidestepped Beanie's advice on the blog, obviously

  35. Gary,

    You seem more excited about the QQQ trade now than when we initially bought a couple of weeks ago. Is it b/c of this latest retracement?

  36. is there a reliable place to buy diamonds/stones? thanks

  37. Good work Gary, not worth messing around with this.

    I've got some skin in it, but fairly modest. I'm playing it more like a straddle, but with the short side acting more as a hedge. Logic is this extended and vertical, gold has to keep churning higher or collapse, not much room for "hanging around". Much higher works great, a collapse is money back.

    Have a great weekend all.

  38. Tajir
    do you know much about diamonds? my mom has had one for 25 years. Its sealed and graded. ill tell you what it is in a few minutes

  39. it says

    round brilliant
    7.03-7.10x 3.97mm / 1,18 ct
    depth % is 56.2
    table diametter % 67%
    girddle thickness med to slitly thick, faceted
    culet size medium
    finish... polish is good
    symmetry fair, to good
    clarity grade is internaly flawless
    color grade i
    color faint blue
    crown angle 30 degrees

  40. Damn! This is frustrating. I think the big boys, whoever they are, have a way to read the collective minds and at each obvious turn set up a new road going in an unmapped direction. This market has left everyone second guessing and wrong. Old Turkey would have worked better than this mess when it first seemed like GDX was forming a reverse head and shoulders and it was time to hold on. Since GDX's obvious buy me low in June, it's up 20%. Big players like SLW, NGD, AUY, NEM, and ABX are all moving higher and looking good, so I guess it's time to be even more frightened, but if everybody is now a contrarian, shouldn't that be a contrary indicator?

  41. Mark,
    Old Turkey is great except it will get you caught in a D-wave decline unless you can spot exact to top.

    We've already had multiple topping signs and each of them have failed.

    Gold is now conditioning everyone to hold their positions. Sooner or later one of these topping signs will be the true top and all those people holding their positions are going to get destroyed during the D-Wave correction.

  42. Thanks Gary. I've always lost money thinking this time it's going to be different. This time I'm missing gains because I think this time it won't be different. Both ways of thinking are painful.

  43. Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  44. Gary,

    Like the dollar index has little predictive value for metals recently, it's entirely possible miners are getting dragged by stocks while metals rally. I'm not saying this is fact, just a possibility.

    To me, it's far better to be long the bull with a size I can handle, including beatdowns than to attempt directional calls and live or die by them, at least for playing a secular bull.

    The answer is to be long metals and miners with manageable size and add only when you'd initiate a new position. Same game as always, and the only way Old Turkey could ever work over time was to ride the uncomfortable retracements. Livermore never mentioned a "D-wave"!

    Just sharing some observations to ponder over the weekend.


  45. Shalom,

    The same thoughts have occurred to me.

    At the same time, I've observed that on most days that gold rallies, the miners rally as well, regardless of what's going on in the market. So I don't think the miners have been held back by the market.

    Keep in mind as well that the miners have been underperforming for a while now. The Gold:XAU ratio has been rising for several months as well -- predating the weakness in equities. The massive spike in Gold:XAU, combined with the plunge in bond yields, feels very much like summer of '08 to me.

  46. Gary out of Gold is MAD MAD MADNESS .. yall will be screwed .. stay tuned

  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

  48. Feels like '08 a bit to me also. We'll see, but I've learned not to worry about how I feel b/c everybody is usually feeling the same, and often on the same side more likely than not. But I do agree that it certainly smells like everything is due to get smacked, and I'd guess we go lower to sideways for at least a month.

    When trading a bull market,the odds are always best that the market will let you out at better prices than feeling forced to sell into weakness.

  49. Gary,

    You are suggesting a huge rally is iminent.

    Stocks lately seem to rally on dollar weakness and lately stocks get slammed ln any dollar strength

    The dollar wil be on day 18 on Monday and will be looking to put in bottom in the next 5to 8days.

    Are you anticipating stocks rallying as the dollar seeks its bottom and don't you think once fhe dollar emerges from its dcl stocks will tank again ?

  50. I will answer those kind of questions on the website.

  51. Gary,
    I hope that you're having a little bit of fun with the successful QQQ's and Gold trade. Don't ever want to lose the fun component. Congrats on the intuitive calls.

  52. Eamonn,

    Are you messing with options in a big way? How are you up 66% this month? Are you a loan shark now? Haha...

  53. Interactive Brokers bulletin board

    Fri Aug 19 13:29:35 2011 EST

    As a result of the volatile trading environment at the present
    time, please be advised that Exchange margins and House margins are
    likely to increase over the next couple of days. For exchange-
    specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will
    also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any
    affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly.

  54. fed meeting at jackson hole is on Aug. 27th, FYI

  55. Wolf: Regarding your long cycles, is there a website you follow? Who is your source?

  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

  57. JEFFtheFLEA,

    Diamonds is all about 4Cs, Color, Clarity, Cut, Carat. Briefly;

    Color = Colorless are better, graded from Grade D to Grade Z. Grade D is colorless.
    Clarity = Measures amount of imperfection. FL grade means flawless, I1, I2 and I3 have visible flaws.
    Cut = Determines brilliance of diamond. Should not be shallow or deep that causes light to pass through.
    Carat = Diamond's weight and size. Obviously bigger is better.

    Hope this helps

  58. Gold sentiment seems like it is getting very frothy now, at least subjectively. I keep reading about higher targets ($2000, $2400!, $5000!, gold:Dow 1:1, etc), like its going to keep going straight up forever.

    Now me, I'm a gold bull who is currently on the sidelines, anxiously waiting for a lower entry point back in. But I find myself starting to get slowly sucked back in by the propaganda and the overly biased cheerleading, wondering just how far from the station I'm going to let the gold-train pull away before I am compelled to capitulate and buy at the top....

    I guess my irrational emotional fear is that it really WILL keep going up and never correct....

    ....which is exactly why it will correct.

    And I will try to wait patiently and ignore the noise.

    It could be soon.

  59. https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/

    look what happened 32 years ago- cycle.

    btw---the most consistent cycle is about 10.3 days---low to low.

    65 day cycle so far over riding that cycle.

    we are going to get another margin increase or several soon. that will be the true test.

    very reliminary
    Boads look absolutey TERRIBLE

    Gold/silver look good. like silver best. But for Heavens sake I could be wrong. Gary is your best bet to follow.

    Mon will be dayv 3 of 2nd half of cycle.

    GIVE RON PAUL 25 or 50 bucks!

  60. wolf33,

    I just made my contribution, and put an extra $50 in there for you. :)


  61. SB---thank you.

    When i attented Ames straw poll which he really won. Randy Travis got Bachman many shady votes.

    The energy behind the boots on the ground for Paul is unbelivable, the young adults and many like us have had it.

    talked to one young adult from Arkansas who had been in Ia 3 mos
    making phone calls on the part of the campaign.

    It is much different than 2007. I was there also.

    one reason they like Paul is they feel they can trust him and he is all about truth---good or bad.

    It is really catching on. I have seen his adds---yhey are great and only truth.

  62. Hey Gary

    you could be Right about 1010 SPX, the Equinox high in Fall 2009 at 1080 is good support as well(666 x 1.618 = 1080 )

    But should the Markets wanna Tag 50% Retrace and Pitch Fork Channel , that 1010 Could get Hit !

    SPX Pitch Fork Channel & Fib Chart:


  63. wolf33,

    Good points, and I think the media's attempt to discredit Ron Paul is now backfiring, driving many to understand we've been lied to for a long time by politicians. Most important is that more people decide every day they should never trust media, on any issue including Ron Paul.

    The lies have finally caught up with those that tell them.

  64. wolf33,

    Btw, I also know Ron Paul won the debate in Iowa. Nationwide polls had him winning 64% of the vote, and Foxnews.com even pulled the poll down off the site b/c he was trouncing the others so badly. The best part is Foxnews is supposed to guide the "conservative" vote, which is really just another way of saying more wars. People are catching on.

  65. Wolf 33 thanks for link to Ron Paul. Sent $50, probably won't get nomination as media avoids him, but made me feel good. Long gold miners since Jan 09. Holding core and trading in and out with 30%, much like SB. Learning cycles to help with entries. Anyone here follow Martin Armstrong?

  66. Wolf33,
    I made my $100 contribution just before the ticker hit the
    $1 million total.
    I was a delegate to the Colorado state convention in 2007 on RP's behalf, and drove solo all the way to Minneapolis for the Rally for the Republic. So glad I did. What an experience!
    The message is spreading like wildfire now it seems. Thanks for all you do.

  67. $NYHL (New Highs New Lows )Index Observation a Possible setup for $$$:


  68. Gann,
    I just love your insight on your charts!

  69. At ease
    I love Charting,i spend hours looking at different Chart,and it feels like Minutes,to me !

    The set up on the Long Side of the Markets ,Could be Highly Highly !!! Profitable here,but will the markets reverse back up at 1090 1080 or 1010 ? i dont know, but i will be looking for clues from the VIX TRANSPORTS ,Broker Dealers Semi's for a low...


  70. I can tell you love working on them and can see the thought and analysis you put into each one. Thank you for sharing your talent with us. I appreciate them.

  71. Can somebody help please?

    I am trying to look at Gann360 screen chart but I am on iPad and don't know how to copy/ paste the link.

    Thanks Gann360 for sharing your charts by the way...you must be very successful as you have the right approach

  72. Sophia,
    Just hold your finger on his link and it will highlight it. You can use the round tabs to move the area that is highlighted. Then, select "copy", which is near the highlighted area.

  73. riley---i see Armstrong comments from time to time. Nothing on consistent basis.

    Thanks for Ron Paulc contributions.

    The biggie eill be 9-19. I think huge but time will tell.

    Keep the energy flowing with your friends, especially progressives.


  74. SB--ur a great presence on this site;

    Gann 360----Thank you for sharing your charts. They are excellent. A great addition to the site.

    You are appeciated, I think by many.

  75. ckpc and anyone missed---thank-you.

    $1.5 million plus!


    those who care, let us spread the word on 9-19---it will be historic!

  76. I worked for a financial institution. they take(can afford) a lot of technical information. while wished i could be more specific, i can only pass on what i do or would lose the sourse,

    Gann 360---Do you have a chart on gold similar to S & P. ie pitchfork.

    Curious how it fits with 3rd day of 2nd half of 65 day cycle.

    There are other things place lot of emphasis on and Broad market looks terrible going into Monday.

    Gold still looks great.

    Again I caution all, follow Gary, he is one of very best I have ever seen. Both young and old.

  77. wolf33, good work drumming up support for RP here. $50 of that $1.5m+ is mine.

  78. Gary, question for you about the D-wave correction. A D-wave, by definition, retraces 61.8% of the C-wave. Assuming we started way back at $855 in '09, we could be looking at a pullback well into the $1300s or possibly even to the consolidation zone in the 1200's (which you've mentioned before as a possibility).

    On the other hand, intermediate bottoms are not supposed to be violated during the bull save for 8-year cycle lows. You also have previously said $1478 should not be breached. Thoughts?

    Thanks as always!

  79. wolf33

    love ron paul, but a vote for Obama is a vote for the gold bull.

  80. Jeff, you're absolutely right, but it goes to show how patriotic we all are around here. If we were just in it for the cash we would be donating to O instead :P

  81. I wonder if it's going to be "margin hike Monday" for gold.

    Current margin on gold is 4%. of contract price
    Current margin on silver is 10% of contract price

    At silvers peak, margin was 9% of contract price. They need to double the margin in gold just to be equal.

    It will be interesting to see how gold opens in a few hours...

  82. Harry
    I can't stomach the thought of giving The O money

  83. I dont think people should treat this ABCD wave patten in gold as a religion. Why a D wave deep correction has to come just because the ABCD patten works from the beginning of the gold bull market since 2001? Remember a pattern works until it doesnt. If you consider this C wave from 09, it looks so streched that I would say the ABCD pattern might have failed this time. This gold bull might have been transitioning to a completely new phase. The game changer could be that the central banks around the world became net buyers of gold from 2009. The correction from December 2009 to Feburary 2010 would have been a D wave correction and it would have been a deeper correction to satisfy the defination of a D wave, but it stoped at 1040-1050 where Indian central bank bought 200 tons of gold in late 2009 and that provided an extremely strong support.

  84. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/08/oil-study.html

    An oil study from my blog.

  85. here we go again....off goes gold

  86. Who can say what gold will do. All I know is that gold does have the potential to rally for another solid month. I am not selling gold or silver here. Just layering in some puts on the way up as well as some cheap inverse ETF shares but keeping some power dry as well for any profit taking pullback.

  87. Interesting Fib Count in Weekly GOLD Chart:


    Daily SPX Gann Fan Chart:


  88. Gold may break $2,000 on this run before is succumbs to profit taking. I can feel it. Silver may have done a gap-and-go on Friday.

  89. This should be an interesting week. Doubt/hoping the stock market will hold. Just can't see why it would. The BKX chart looks like Sh__t....

  90. Gann360, what's your expectation for Irene? Hope you don't get hit too badly.


  91. I'm not buying any metal up here, but silver is a confirmed "buy the dip" asset once again, if it ever wasn't in the last couple years.

    I hope to buy some miners from weak hands over the next month, as early as this next week.

    Good luck. :)

  92. I meant to say "as early as this upcoming week".

    See you tomorrow! :)

  93. One mistake people make when looking at gold charts is:

    a. They set their display settings to 1024 x 768 (for example) and make a 1 year chart fill the screen.

    b. Then they make a 10 year chart fill the same screen.

    c. They compare the 1 year chart to the 10 year chart.

    You can't do that!

    It is comparing apples to oranges. The 10 year chart will be far more compressed horizontally, causing the peaks and valleys to appear much more severe than they are. If you really want view a 10 year chart that represents reality, you have to stretch the chart horizontally. REALLY stretch it. If you do then you will discover that this current run up in gold is not so unusual or spectacular in the greater scheme of things.

  94. thank you 4 ur help. let us hope that 9-19 will be historic.


  95. Danno;

    Correct. And compare APPL to gold and $2000 doesn't look like such a radical move after all. I think everyone is stuck on the TA...

  96. My brief notes for Monday-

    Gold---this will be day 3 of the second half of a 65 day cycle low to high. i have mentioned that the 2nd half could be more dramaticthan the first half. Silver could well lead but gold safer bet. think silver minimum of 46 to 50. these r just my opinions and should NEVER be relided on. Follow Gary.

    2. think we could see some dramatic moves on miners. the clue 4 me will to see if juniors really turn up the heat. they have lagged majors. handful of majors making new highs. again follow Gary he is the best i have seen. u will be much better off,

    3. watch cef to see if can buy at a discount intra day. they do hold there silver and gold. count on it!

    4. look to sell a laggard if it does not participate.

    broads---what i look at is simply terrible. even horrible. but they can fool u. take the time to look at amzn chart. even the best company (aapl) muight well look the same. watch it closely.

    like to see $ stay in this area or lower. every floating rate currency is trying to debase---currency wars.

    remind every one that ron paul predicted this years ago. he is the only one with a sound plan and speaks truth good or bad. i luv truth.

    These are notes to my self. the thought process will be adjusted during the day. it is highly likely that little or nothing will

    one last note on gold----there have been corrections all along this cycle---most .382 $---u will only find them on intra day charts.

    last note-Gann has some great charts. i really like his work. luv pitchforks but do not know how to do them.

  97. I agree Wolf33 - Go Ron Paul!!!

  98. correction--not daily notes but weekly.

  99. Recently
    Gold could hit $4,000 an ounce over the next three to five years, says hedge-fund manager John Paulson. Gold is currently trading around $1,500 an ounce. John Paulson, head of the hedge fund that bears his name, was the top-earning manager of 2010. He raked in $4.9 billion in 2010 thanks to bets on gold at Paulson & Co., shattering his record in 2007, when he earned $3.7 billion by betting that housing market was about to collapse.

    Hedge Fund
    A hedge fund is a fund that can take both long and short positions in the same market to offset losses during a market downturn.

    Don't tell me you need to sell your gold or silver long positions or that you can't stay long through pullbacks and simply hedge your gold and silver long positions. Of course you can. Hedge funds do it all that time! That's the whole reason options were invented; for insurance. Has anyone here made $4.9 billion dollars in one year lately?

    I'm not nagging. Just say'n.

  100. Hedging is great for massive funds that can't enter and exit easily, but it's a waste of money for the average retail investor. None of us are going to move the market with our trades.

    If you think the market, or an asset like gold, is going to go down, instead of hedging, just sell your position.

    You will accomplish the same thing as hedging (market neutral) and you won't have to worry about trading two positions instead of one.

    Convincing the average retail trader that he needs to hedge his positions with options was probably the greatest scam Wall Street ever pulled on the retail investor.

  101. Jim Rogers "anything that goes up 25% in a month should correct"

    Gold is up 25% in 6 weeks.

  102. If politicians were not allowed to own gold or silver, would they still want a gold standard?

    I see that Ron Paul owns lots of gold and gold related stocks. What if he were not allowed to own gold or silver? Would he still fight teeth and nail for the gold standard day after day, year after year?

    It seems to me many of the gold bugs ( Dave morgan, mike maloney, peter schiff, etc), they have some sort of relationship to miners and they sell gold and silver on their websites. A significant conflict of interest if you ask me.

    Why don't they and their gold/silver miner friends hog up all the gold and silver instead of selling to the masses?

  103. To each his own. I hope everyone makes out. More than one way to skin a cat. For me, I'm not selling my gold or silver. I'm as old turkey as they come. I'm riding this pig all the way up until it pukes. When I sense it's about to crap out I'll sell more covered calls and if it does come crashing down I'll buy the calls back and cash in the puts I've been slipping in on the way up. Yeee-HAW!!!

  104. Breaking news!?

    1) On King World News, Ben Davies was saying last week he expects a short term correction in gold before 2100$ end of year. (This kinda aligned with our forum)

    But as of just TODAY, he is revising that gold will be 2100$ in a few weeks- the forcing factor is "gold run"/Chavez etc.

    2) iTulip's Eric J. is also saying this weekend, based on his metrics (gold price vs US 10 yr yields), that his long held 2000 "Argentina style" collapse for the US may be afoot this time around.

    Both these guys called the silver crash in April right (iTulip was in fact ~2 days before the top).

    Davies is silver bullish, but I think iTulip still subscribes to silver "broken parabola"

    Hopefully gold corrects SOON! In the meanwhile, I will do the only thing to that makes me feel better during this type of quandry: buy physical bullion.


  105. Hey Driver

    My Family and i are in Florida right now,and i plan to stay here for a while..(wouldn't want to be there while/if the Hurricane Hits )



  106. GANN

    Love those charts, and I use fib levels in retracements and my price projections often.

    As for your "time" counts...very interesting. I have not taken the 'Time' to keep track of them ; ) ...thx for the updates!

  107. Again, I ask:

    Why don't gold gurus and their miner friends just hog up all the gold and silver, instead of trading to you and me for US dollars?

  108. Oh I don't know, maybe because they don't have a couple trillion dollars.

    Beanie, sometimes you can come up with the most ridiculous things.

  109. I warned you you were going to get caught in the bear market but you didn't listen.

  110. Like I was saying, gold supposed to head to $10,000 to $100,000. Why trade their gold for a measly $1800 (and much lower a few years back)? I would certainly hide my gold like crazy, not sell it like a maniac.

  111. I do believe everybody on your list has been buying gold for years and telling their subscribers to buy gold for years.

    Hell, I've been telling my subscribers to buy gold for years. It's the main reason we had such a good year last year.

    You just don't, or won't, see the difference between a secular bull market (gold) and a secular bear market (stock market).

    Perma Bear/perma Bull they are both idiots.

  112. Yeah, they warned me the same thing back in 1995, 1996, 1997-1999, 2000-2007, 2008-2009, 20010-2011. The bears are always warning. Heck, they even warned my ancestors.

    They warn even during recovery times. They all warned during late 2009, mid 2010, late 2010, early 2011, and now they warning again.

  113. Beanie, if this were the U.S.S.R. would politicians want to own stocks?

    To answer your other question, it's because they are dollar-cost averaging traders.

  114. Why would gold bugs like Peter Schiff want to trade in his gold for US dollars? Seems kinda odd. If hyperinflation is the endgame, those who own all the gold wins.

    Mike Maloney. Same thing. goldsilver.com . He sells you gold, via a relationship with gold producer.

    Dave Morgan. Same. Relationship with gold/silver miner that wants to sell you gold and silver in exchange for your US dollar.

    Just about everyone of the diehard gold bugs have similar setups.

    I keep scratching my head on this.

  115. I've been telling you for the last six or seven years that we are in a secular bear market.

    I called the top of the last bull market November 07. And I was telling everybody to sell stocks in their 401(k)s in March and April of this year.

    I'm not a perma bear or a perma bull. I just know how these cycles work, and I knew we were due for a cyclical bull market top sometime this summer.

    Because of your perpetual bullish view you will now drag all of your subscribers down into a second bear market.

    We will get a violent bear market rally soon, and I know darn well you will be on the blog telling us the bear market is over Dow is going to 36,000 and then the market will roll over and drag you down again. You will miss your chance to exit and avoid the rest of the bear market.

    Hopefully at some point in your trading career you will figure out that markets go up, and down, and the difference between a secular bull market and a secular bear market.

  116. Gary, you might as well keep telling that to Warren Buffett. He always owns stocks and always buying.

  117. Interesting Silver Daily Fib Count From 2011 Pivot Low and Pivots caused by the Hit:


  118. And Buffett is up a grand total of 25% in the last 14 years. And if he doesn't sell his stocks soon that 25% is going to evaporate by the time the next cyclical bear market bottoms.

    This is a very good illustration of what happens during a secular bear market to perma Bulls.

  119. Beanie,
    You would be much better off following someone like Jim Rogers who understands the cyclical nature of economics and markets.

  120. Anyway, I would still like to know why all these gold bugs like Peter Schiff have relationships with miners to sell you their silver and gold in exchange for your US dollars. Still seems extremely weird, if gold and silver are that valuable.

  121. If they are selling gold then they are making the spread between the bid and ask just like every other gold dealer in the world.

  122. Jim Rogers is a great investor, a great man, an honest man, in my opinion. But he still only made $300 million out of the market (I think that's what his networth was pegged at). Buffett and Soros still the best.

  123. Jimmy Rogers was Soros partner in the quantum fund. The fund gained almost 4000% in 11 years.

  124. Gann360, thanks for the chart, I'm looking at a similar level in SLV. There is a chart at the top of this thread, if you're interested.

  125. Even the great Eric Sprott has a website that sells you gold and silver. Again, why? Why convert it back to Canadian or US dollar?

    He also sold a huge number of PSLV shares recently. Converting it back to dollars?

  126. You expect the Dow to reach 36,000+, so why do you trades stocks, for a fraction of their future value?

  127. deleted long thread i hope.

    Just want to say Monday is 3rd day of 2nd half of 65 day cycle low to high---if this is what we are dealing with---2nd half could well be stronger than first half. JMO and FYI

    Best if you follow Gary

  128. And what i look at broad markets look just plain yucky.

  129. It's not that they are selling their own gold reserve. Selling gold is just a business to make money. They dont get their gold free and rape their customers with a huge profit. As for their profit, I am sure they store them in gold/silver after saving some for working capitals.

  130. 1881$/oz gold. Kitco forum predicting 2100$-2500$ in 2 months.

    I'm still not interested.

  131. Me neither...how is your basement doing?

  132. all gold miners charts look pretty good to me..

  133. If gold keeps going higher I might actually get laid again.

  134. Beanie,
    obviously they do it as a business to make sure they have a boatload of money (still US$ and not gold, despite peoples opinion about it) for all their living expenses. You know, we all got to eat right?

    Silly question and not at the least thought provocative.

  135. This comment has been removed by the author.

  136. something to look out for...

    RiM is either ripe for a takeover (ie Microsoft)


    Dell or HP are looking at a merger with RIM or I'm full of sh*t

  137. Wow, Silver Futures close to Flat after being up $1.50 over Night.Hmm

    Maybe the Fib Cycle count May mean something after all.Lets see how they Trade today

  138. RIM's new OS could get Dell or HP out from under Microsoft thumb and expand Their tablet plans.

    needless to rim needs a partner to survive apple and google's onslaught

  139. Cramer is saying sell gold at the opening today.

  140. This may be the big profit taking pullback or... it may be about 3-5 days of fake out sideways movement before another surge higher. Comparing silver's price action here against similar technical MACD and Stochastic setups tells me there is still a real possibility of another surge higher.

  141. Ak,

    That is interesting, Cramer is the biggest Guru for the retail guy...getting the crowd to go the other way is curious.

  142. RIM's new OS could get Dell or HP out from under Microsoft thumb and expand Their tablet plans.

    needless to rim needs a partner to survive apple and google's onslaught

  143. does anyone know a good site to find corporate credit rating downgrades?

  144. trin .55 rush to buy---are they right?

  145. I need to at least see a swing low first.

  146. I was hoping miners would open lower on continued weakness from last week so that I could do some buying.

    Instead, I noticed GDX has now crept up and is now only around $1.50 or so from new 52 week highs.

    Still like the miners, and looking to add into dips.

  147. Shalom Bernanke, if there is a QE announcement from Jackson Hole next Friday, and say if gold corrected $200, and S&P jumped 5%, how would you anticipate the miners to behave?

  148. I have to say it looks like gold is discounting QE3.

    Of course after a run of this magnitude the announcement of QE3 would probably trigger a sell the news trade.

  149. But I would be a buyer after the initial selling wore off, especially now that the miners are correcting the divergence.

  150. huey---can it hold its strength---it will one of these times. nugt my easy way to play it levered. fyi

  151. wolf33, if you were answering my question to SB, thank you :o)

  152. GAry,

    Do you think that the miners will begin to outperform the metal now?

  153. I don't know. I want to see how the sector responds when the correction hits.

  154. SLV 10Min Observation: watch the 20SMA :


  155. it seems like no one cares about the dollar anymore..

    just glancing at the weekly /dx futures it sure seems like we're still setting up for a huge '08ish spike, and in fact maybe the last couple weeks were the 'fake out' wedge break lower before the rocket launch.


    would sync nice with a huge hit to gold and stocks with them both finally diverging amidst a rising dollar sometime next year. perhaps beginning with the end of the euro?

    i don't know my main pc borked over the weekend so i'm just goofin now.

  156. Eamonn,

    There is no way to tell, but I suppose Gary could be correct that gold might sell off.

    Since we can't know with certainty how gold will respond, I won't let the possibility affect how I trade them. It's also possible money comes out of gold, and into miners from those that still want metal exposure but are fearing a pullback. Who knows?

    I do have the feeling that many have sold out of miners for various reasons, and that this is how the bull will make sure as few people as possible are able to participate.

    The real answer is to have some, and look to take advantage of pullbacks, IMO.

  157. Not all in or entirely on the sidelines, but size you can hold even if a sharp pullback occurs. :)

  158. on the newswires-
    It is being reported that traders expect Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to begin a third round of quantitative easing to boost the economy, and that is being reflected in record-low yields on U.S. Treasuries. Barclay's expects that traders anticipate $500 billion to $600 billion of Treasury purchases by the Fed.

  159. Gann360 --

    Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

    Are you studying such things manually, or through computer backtesting?

  160. 'riley' mentioned he was at about 30% of his accounts in miners, and that sounds about right to me depending on which names being bought.

    Some of the smaller miners have 20% swings each week, so that would imply account values moving around 6%/week.

  161. also of note: some person on zerohedge wrote a bullish piece using the 'stretched rubberband' euphemism to present a bullish case for the stock market here.


    let's just say the readership there is a little reluctant to agree.

    i was starting to think there were still too many bulls..

  162. HUI pressing up against year long resistance at the 600 level. Will it be pushed back down or are we about to see a big breakout?

  163. Shalom Bernanke, thank you for your thoughts :o)

  164. The dollar is flat..The miner was diverging and sentiment was high..

    This was maybe a lesson for the furure?

    We can see gold go parabolic with a flat dollar..High sentiment and miners diverging! Actually the dollar was rising together with gold earlier..

    I didnt expect this move in gold..So many warning sign..But Gary told us that gold will do everything to kick us off the train..

  165. DP

    i do it all my self.but the tag of the 20 sma is a great Trick.

    on all markets ,works great on SPX DOW ETC...

  166. Gann360 --

    Do you mean it works on 10min scale for all markets?

  167. gold=3rd day of 32 day rally =2nd half of 65 day cycle===may well surprse upside. jmo

    huey would break to new highs if this continues.

    corrections intra-day

  168. Yeah ,,,,and on the day it doesn't get Hit, (once every 100 T-Days)Usually gets Hit the Following Morning,,,, so c;mon Silver reverse you Pig...lol

    But remember nothing 100%,but it should happen,i have seen this Work 1000 Times

  169. Gann360 --

    Very good.

    Thanks for sharing.

  170. gann 360---possibly the long cycle is too overwhelming---i do not know but have placed lot of my portfolio on this and of course persons pivots.

  171. Damn, sold my miners too soon. But that's what I get for listening to someone else...

  172. Can I get a 20 sma on forex pros? What are you using to get a 20 sma overlay on the 10 minute silver chart?

  173. Long another 100 shares of AGQ at 251 (double silver). Bought a 250 covered call back at a loss, then sold a 265 covered call for a gain over the loss and giving me another 15 points to ride AGQ up! Plus added some SLV puts for extra insurance. Broker loves me. Trading fool. Yeeee-haaaww!! Gonna ride this PIG!!

  174. Folks there is an incredible opportunity brewing in the stock market. But everyone is worrying about missing a move in gold.

    People you need to get a grip on your emotions.

    Once gold corrects, and it will, and it will be violate, then we can decide whether we want to get back into the sector.

  175. Gary, would you describe in a few sentences the opportunity in the stock market you are referring to?

  176. Wolf anything is Possible

    But , with so many Cycles getting hit here ,in the Metals, i do believe we are very close to a Reversal.

    But i have been wrong before and will be again.

  177. This comment has been removed by the author.

  178. E,
    The stock market is setting up for a bear market rally of historic proportions. Once we get some indication of the bottom, especially if the scenario I laid out in the weekend report unfolds, we could see a 25 to 30% rally in the S&P in as little as 5 to 6 weeks.

    Gold on the other hand is stretched massively above the 200 day moving average and we could come in one morning to large margin hikes and a 300 point gap down.

    It's all about risk and reward. The risk in gold is extreme. The reward in the stock market is potentially huge.

    Instead of letting one's emotions control their thought process. One needs to think logically where the largest potential gain is likely to occur.

    I can assure you it's not by playing chicken with a parabola.

  179. Gary,

    How do you think 25%-30% rally on stocks? What makes you feel like that bullish? Bear in mind that I am not trying to steal your crystal ball, but I would love to learn.
    Thanks for all your help

  180. gann 360---i too have been wrong many times. why i say followGary---risk is important.

  181. Sophia,
    ask your question on the premium site and I'll answer it.

  182. Gary, thank you. I exited my last PM position, in silver, this morning. I have learned that patience is usually rewarded. I will learn what the Fed will say on Friday. If there is QE, then its game on. I'll wait for a few days to let volatility subside and then I will buy some SPY calls. However, its possible that the market will not be happy with the Fed's plans & after a short rally we have to head back to S&P 1000 before we get some whopper stimulus :o)

  183. folks, do yourselves a favor. Listen to Gary. I've been in the situation where I chased, and chased, and I lost my shirt. Gary helped me gain back those losses. He is dead on ... Gold is stretched, as oil was in '08, and a great opportunity is arising in the General Market. Be patient and you will be rewarded.


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