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Sunday, August 7, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

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516 comments:

  1. We are days, if not hours, away from the announcement of QE3.

    The announcement of QE2 was the fundamental driver that broke the back of the yearly cycle correction in 2010.

    The announcement of QE3 will be the fundamental driver that will halt this yearly cycle correction.

    This whole scenario is setting up very similar to what happened in 2007. I will elaborate in Monday night's report.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Gary. Gold has sniffed QE3. It is soaring to a new high now.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hmmm... Asian market opened low but did not panic like Godzilla just stepped out of the water.
    Futures still low but not as low as before.

    Gary, I'm not sure Benny will initiate QE3 as quick as you may think, there will probably be a bullshit session denouncing the S&P and such for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gary
    I'm assuming an announcement of qe3 would have a normal gold bull like myself jumping in at these levels and getting destroyed by a daily cycle correction or a possible intermediate correction.

    Now if we do get that announcement of qe3 I would think that would support the the general markets and bring the dollar to new lows.....so is it fair to say one can expect opposite to happen?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Prepare yourselves, gold is going to take a nose dive when QE3 is announced.

    If it wasn't then the miners and silver would not be diverging. Hot money is not going to land on an extremely overextended market like gold. It's going to flow into things like banks and semi's, things that have gotten crushed.

    Regression to the mean people. You have to learn how to play the game or the big boys will always take your money.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Haggerty,
    The market is going to assume the QE will produce the same result as it did the last two times. So traders are going to pile into the stock market thinking that we have been saved.

    We may even see new highs in the S&P. But make no mistake a bear market has begun.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Smart money is preparing to hand off the gold bag to the little guy. They will use the announcement of QE3 to do just that.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Let's face it the dollar is already discounting QE3. It should be rallying like a fiend by now. It's not.

    The pieces are all there for everyone to see. Just don't let your emotions cloud your vision. And don't let GS take you to the cleaners on your gold positions.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Lots of interesting things going on.....I don't see QE3 now, but I won't disagree with the statement that QE3 is around the corner, as I said before....

    Interested in that nightly report to why you are so confident in QE3 now...when you say days, if not hours that is pretty bold. You obviously see something, clear from your comments here and at SMT premium...


    Mr M...nice Godzilla reference..lol

    ReplyDelete
  10. Keys,
    post your comment on the premium site and I will tell you what I see.

    ReplyDelete
  11. So Gary, you're back on the gold stretched IT cycle theory again?

    Dollar back down to multi year lows, undermthe April 3yr lows.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This downgrade is coordinated and timed just after a huge sell off, which was initiated by insiders who knew beforehand.

    They want a scary sell off so that QE3, or whatever they call it, will be an easy sell.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Poly,
    Let's assume for a minute that QE3 has been announced.

    Where will be largest gains be made?

    The stock market is likely to rally 10% or more in the first two weeks. Ask yourself what the possibilities are of gold rallying $170 in the next two weeks?

    Exceptionally beat up banks, semi's, transports, etc. could rally 15% in the first two weeks.

    What are the odds of gold rallying $255 in two weeks?

    Instead of letting your bias for gold cloud your judgment think like a money manager trying to find the sector with the most potential for rapid appreciation.

    Now think like a money manager that is holding a very extended gold trade. Do you continue to hold the trade knowing that you will never even come close to matching the gains in the stock market, or do you exit the overextended trade and move your money into a sector with massively greater potential for rapid appreciation?

    ReplyDelete
  14. I'm going to again politely caution those who do not have a plan if Gary is wrong. I'm not saying he is. Clearly nobody knows. I'm saying he *might* be.

    He is no more perfect than any of us including me and I marvel at the confidence many of you are now exhibiting in light of a stomping you took not too long ago blindly doing the same thing.

    Markets are legendary for crushing those who think something absolutely will (or won't) happen.

    I'll leave it at that and simply say good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Gary, clearly no offense intended by the way. I think you know that.

    ReplyDelete
  16. TZ

    Probability wise Gary is obviously right. Gold extremely overbought and stocks way oversold.

    I'll probably stay nearly all cash, I don't trust the Wall Street/DC syndicate.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I hear you Gary, not disagreeing. Just trying to say, these are not not normal times, fear is inducing a run and gold is being massively revalued, stretched or not.

    Will or can gold violently correct? Absolutely! But, I'm trying to tell people that you want a position in a 11 year old generational bull market no matter what. Sure go ahead and time the cycles/moving averages with the bulk of positions, but get yourself a position and ride it. On the note of cycles, your still trying to fit this "reversion tom the mean" event with a stretched IT cycle. The cycles clearly point to July 1st, do they not? Each $10 move higher is making the case for a stretched cycle so much less likely. Its also making it harder to buy into a blow off move with no position. At this point, you now need over a $200 drop for an official stretched IT low still ahead, getting dicey.

    BTW, I like the portfolio change call a lot. My only fear, granted low probability, is the over sold crash scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I have a different technique than gary (although I find his insight complementary and boosts my returns).

    The same technique I used with silver which worked and got me out near the top is indicating there are a number of weeks if not a month or so of gains left for gold.

    I will attempt to get back in with a small stop. I am in NO way resistant to gold going lower cause it would be great to load up at better price. I get it. I agree.

    But it might not go lower and my work is saying it won't.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I'm pissed cause I got stopped out unnecessarily and now I'm watching it run away from me like everybody else here. I should be in and long and I got cute with my stop level and now it's costing me.

    Arrgh...

    Let's hope we get that pullback. I need it now too.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The last intermediate cycle is a tough one. On a very long-term chart it doesn't really look like an intermediate cycle bottom.

    On a daily chart, maybe yes, maybe no. Hard to say. The decline only lasted seven days. Most intermediate degree corrections last 4 to 6 weeks.

    All I can say at the moment is that I would much rather put money to work in the stock market then the gold market at this particular time.

    If we were to get a severe corrective move back to the 50 day moving average, along with a sharp Blees rating reversal, then I would reconsider stomping on the gas, especially if the stock market had already rallied 100 to 150 points.

    ReplyDelete
  21. My gut is telling me the opening today around 1682 is the low for the week and it's gonna run from here and not look back.

    I feel like I should buy with a $10 stop and just hold. But I've been in situations like that and chasing is frequently a ticket to failure.

    So I'm just gonna try and lighten up and let it play out and look for a smart entry with some sort or legit stop.

    But I'm pretty sure it is gonna hit $1700 in almost no time and keep running.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Gary,
    If gold and silver don't nosedive when QE3 is announced will you admit you were wrong and you got all your followers out just when they should of held strong? lol

    ReplyDelete
  23. TZ,
    I would have to ask why you are worried about missing a move in gold which has no hope of matching the move coming in stocks.

    If you're worried about making money just by the stock market. Your gains will almost certainly far surpass anything that gold could do over the next several weeks.

    There's nothing that says that one has to be limited to making money only in the gold market.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Gold lion,
    See my comment above to TZ.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Gary, sure is a difficult call all round. Good luck all and be careful, you need to think of the "worse case" scenario for each of your positions.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Gary,

    You and I have different understandings about what gold is and what will soon happen to the world financial system.

    QE3 could easily crash the stock market and send gold skyrocketing.

    We will just have to agree to disagree.

    ReplyDelete
  27. TZ,
    "QE crash the stock market."

    I answered that on the premium site.

    ReplyDelete
  28. o shit gary ....... should i tell the wife she should give vangard the money back. and let them invest it?
    her 401 k we got out when you were screaming .. GET OUT . i wont be directing it, but they will place it and do what ever they do with it

    ReplyDelete
  29. "Let's assume for a minute that QE3 has been announced.

    Where will be largest gains be made?

    The stock market is likely to rally 10% or more in the first two weeks. Ask yourself what the possibilities are of gold rallying $170 in the next two weeks?" -Gary


    Actually, if QE3 were announced, I'd say we get +$170 gold a few days after if not immediately. +/- $100 days if gold are not far off, IMO. I think it is fooling oneself to be overly confident gold will drop on a QE announcement, likewise that a QE is definitely coming tomorrow or this week. I suppose it depends how ugly things get.

    I do think the S&P, Nasdaq, etc will bounce but I'm not very interested in that trade. I remain long the same miners and PHYS for now.

    It looks to be an interesting week with lots of volatility. One thing I'm sure of, traders better adjust their trading sizes lower to compensate for the swings or their emotions will force a mistake.

    Good luck tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  30. The market is a single, collective realization away from "we've tried everything, nothing works, and it's all BS paper/debt and lies" before crashing.

    The entirety of the world media, politicians, laws, central banker speeches and govt statistics is geared toward *preventing* that singular realization from hitting home.

    It will. It is only a matter of time.

    Gold has already shifted to that realization and it is starting to sink in (cause precious metal investors are smarter and have studied history more than the people screaming 'boo yah' at their TV.)

    QE3 is one more step in driving that realization home.

    No matter how stupid a person is, if you fix their car once they can deal with it. If you repair it a 2nd time they might go along. Once you start hitting the 3rd repair even the slowest bloke in the world starts to think there is something else going on.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SB
    i just reduced size as per gary, and im glad you said it to, so i can just let it fly in the storm thats a brewing.. just wish gold would correct so i can get on again. im in the stands watching you ride at this time.

    ReplyDelete
  32. One final thought:

    Gold is up over $43 tonight, so $170 is not that much of a stretch.

    I agree stocks will bounce at some point due to the oversold levels, but that's the only edge I see. The problem is everybody wants to catch the spike higher when it comes, but once they get a profit the temptation to book it at the first sign of a turn lower will be too great to resist. This will cap most bottom pickers' profits if they manage to make them at all. It will be very difficult to press gains in stocks as we head further into the Greatest Depression.

    Sleep tight!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Gary,
    What will be your long S&P play?

    ReplyDelete
  34. I'll say it again. Cycles may stretch but they never fail. Gold still hasn't filled any of the parameters for a daily cycle low.

    If the miners & silver can correct the divergence then I will get interested in gold again once the daily cycle correction has run it's course.

    There is a reason the miners didn't follow gold to new highs. I'm not sure what that reason is, but it sure as hell has me nervous, especially with gold stretched this far above the 200 DMA.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Gold lion,
    Read the nightly report.

    ReplyDelete
  36. To put simply....gold=not good right now...the set-up for gold to crash and I mean real hard is at our feet...This is exit time, not putting more money to work time! Man these things always end badly! I hope nobody here at SMT really loses a mint on this!

    Anyways...last comment on that, since I could very well be wrong, and this very well be the first time that something is different...even though it has always been the same.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Geithner staying on as Sec of Treasury, which means QE3 and the downgrade - I'll be buying gold in the morning.

    ReplyDelete
  38. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Alright I said my piece right or wrong...good luck all...off to a night cap and off to bed! Big day tomorrow, I think we can all agree on that...:)

    ReplyDelete
  40. gary-

    What happened to gold when QE 2 was announced? (gold had been rocketing up out of last August into Oct/Nov, it was extremely extended). Everyone was expecting it was priced in, sell the news, etc etc.

    Sold off that day, the reversed hard going up by end of day. We then have been moving up since then.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Gary,
    even if you missed the gold C wave, you're still my favorite Guru..lol

    ReplyDelete
  42. I am guessing that we all missed the last 2 weeks of gold move. Too late to get in, but with all the sovereign debt issues going on, I dont see gold dropping back to 1500 levels.

    what do you guys think?

    ReplyDelete
  43. 2008 crash, QE1 fail, QE2 fail but everyone is going to rush to stocks? After 3 years I think everyone has been reeducated on gold. Gold has been the winner since 2008, why would everyone not rush to it? I don't see how it can be held down for another entire intermediate cycle before a c wave blow off top.

    The fact that gold indicators are failing tells me that this is the time for an epic move. Indicators should be broken exactly at a time of extremity like now. That's when new patterns are formed.

    Cycles never fail...waves never fail at coming in to the beach, but that doesn't mean there isn't a hurricane every once in a while. One spends decades building homes based on normal wave patterns, and they can be destroyed in a day. Everyday weather forecasting techniques fail exactly during an extreme event.

    90% physical
    10% leveraged long gold trades
    Still contemplating taking a partial Gary move to hedge myself. I believe my systemic view over his; but I don't have the historic knowledge of who moves markets that he has, which is my only worry.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Link to futures market?

    Folks,

    Jesse cafe used to have this but no more- can someone recommend a link?

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  45. I called 1162 and the ES hit 1161.50 0nthe opening drop. That's a sign for those who are paying attention. We'll break 1162 and close lower, much, much lower as the Bank Of Japan and every other central bank inside the G7 makes sure The Bernake lays in the bed that he and Greedscam created for the American people.

    Gary's leading everyone into the lion's mouth after having everyone safely in 100% cash. Why Gary wants to get everyone involved is beyond me. I guess he feels that he has to have "something on" even though he knows that the three year cycle low is in in the dollar and gold will start its d-wave decline this week. Catching a falling knife isn't advised and if you're safely in 100% cash sit on your hands or better yet don't turn on the computer or TV all of tomorrow.

    QE3 isn't coming... that's the "curve ball" that Gary's going to swing and miss just like he missed the OBL top in silver. Remember the pain you experienced for those 130% long SLV, SLW, SIL, etc. When you're long QQQ and thinking something was going to happen i.e. "QE3" and it didn't and doesn't come... Thank Gary for leading you into the lion's mouth. Stay the hell away folks and wait for late 2012 to get involved as we'll be much, much lover.

    Book It!!!

    ReplyDelete
  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  47. 1700.00 breached. Imma lil sad I got out early. waitin' on corrrrrection!

    ReplyDelete
  48. Listen to any number of interviews from Jim Rickards on King World News and you will see that they don't have to do QE3, they can reinvest what they already have on the balance sheets and be fine. Besides, if they do have some kind of stimulus, it will be named something completely different this time and will not come until a full on panic sell off in under way.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Ken,

    So what you are saying is to invest everything one has in the S&P tomorrow, at the bell?

    ReplyDelete
  50. Felix,
    Runaway moves don't act like this. They grind higher with plenty of corrective moves. This is an emotional semi parabolic top forming.

    Learn the lesson from what happened in May. Better early than late.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Broken Parabola,
    No gold corrected when QE2 was announced and stocks took off. Just exactly like I'm trying to warn people of right now.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Gold Lion,
    The C-wave has been ongoing since April 2009. We didn't miss it.

    We got a little too greedy and gave some back last May. And there are a bunch of people now setting themselves up to make the same mistake again, but we most definitely didn't miss the C-wave.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Thanks Gary. No more puking sounds good.

    ReplyDelete
  54. what are the odds of Golds parabola breaking like silver?

    ReplyDelete
  55. At least Beanie had the guts to show up when he was clearly wrong.

    I suspect we will never hear from Ken again when the trend reverses.

    So what will it be? Will you show up and admit you were wrong when the trends reverse.

    You know I took a load of crap over on the other blog during the June rally. Turns out I was exactly right and none of the trolls had the guts to return and apologize.

    I suspect Ken will be the same.

    ReplyDelete
  56. If this action holds into the open, perhaps we'll finally get a clue about what the hell the miners are doing: gap down with the market or gap up with the metals.

    ReplyDelete
  57. QE 2 was announced Nov 3rd. Low for gold that day was 1325, closed 1348. 4 days later it hit 1422, then had a several day correction down to 1331. We then had that triple top thing over the holidays around the 1430 zone...Our intermediate bottom was extremely mild and only came back to 1310, when it launched into this 400 point move out of Jan.

    ReplyDelete
  58. The $1,700 target in gold has been hit and it wouldn't surprise me to see gold drop $250 tomorrow alone. I'd say the $1,000 - $1,250 level is an area to get involved. The dollar index will have an 80+ handle before you can even blink an eye and the stock market will drop 20%+ in less than 2-3 months time. The Fed is irrelevant at this point as for every $ the Bernake prints the worlds central banks will print $2. The dollar, treasuries and short positions are where you'll want to be in the next 3-6 months. QE3 never comes, so don't bet on it!

    ReplyDelete
  59. No QE started in Nov. It was announced in Jackson Hole WY at the beginning of July.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Ken,
    Gary UK made the mistake of staying short too long last year and blew out his account.

    It's too late in the intermediate cycle to continue pushing the short side. Sentiment has reached bearish extremes rarely seen in history and if the dollar was going to rally it would be doing so, big time, by now.

    Know when to take profits.

    ReplyDelete
  61. ken, are you drunk tonight, just kidding.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Beksachi:

    Bloomberg has the futures (scroll down): http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/

    ReplyDelete
  63. Sorry but Ken's not going to be a Bennie Gary. I'm not trying to be a Bennie I'm just telling you how I see things. Right, wrong or indifferent that's how I see and I'm playing things. This is Gary's blog so he's "the man" and that's cool, but he's never been 100% correct in his calls. Those who cannot think for themselves and are following every one of Gary’s moves are going to get wood shredded on this one.

    Sure the risk reward favors getting long after a 10%+ meltdown ,but this isn't a typical meltdown. If you think that the French & German citizens are going to take it in the crapper so the Greeks, Italians, Portuguese, Spanish and Irish can retire at 55 or piss off 8+ weeks vacationing each year you're mad. If you think the productive members of American society are going to rollover and pay 50%+ tax rates you're freak n' crazy. Without the Fed debasing the currency than Gary's gold bull and equity bull is D-E-A-D O-N A-R-R-I-V-A-L.

    Gary's thesis resides on the fact that Ben prints, but what happens to gold and all risk assets when Ben doesn't print? Answer the question Gary. What happens when Ben doesn't print or better yet what happens when Ben's printing press is met with the printing press from other world central banks. The US will not devalue itself out of the $15 trillion box ir corner its painted itself into. Aren't you glad we have a community organizer at the helm to see us through the storm? Not!

    Take a swing if you will Gary but staying in 100% cash is where 100% of people should be. I've been short since June 2nd 2011 and will remain short even if we get a bounce. Rallies are to be sold not bought (you said that yourself). Everyone is entitled to do whatever they must. It's your capital not mine.

    All I can say is do what’s best for you and I’ll do the same.

    I'll see you on the other side.

    ReplyDelete
  64. South Korean Shares Plunge as Much as 7% on US Downgrade; Suspends Program Trading

    This is like 2008 all over again...panic is out of control

    ReplyDelete
  65. Nope. Thew annual meeting in Jackson Hole was August 26-28th. Benanke only HINTED that QE2 was coming and the Nov. date was when it was officially announced. Gold was around 1237 at the time. It went on to have a massive 2 month run. The Nov day when it was announced was down right away, but then the market saw it was a pretty big number so gold moved higher for 4 days. This run we are on now is a result of the QE2 announcement & other global events.

    Here's a link to last year's meeting

    http://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/escp-2010.cfm

    ReplyDelete
  66. If you intend to hold through the entire bear market then sure stay short.

    I do find it hard to believe that you managed to hang on to shorts during the June rally when the market made a higher high. But if you say you did then so be it.

    Yes if the fed curtails it's printing spree then yes all risk assets will take a hit. However Ben has shown for the last 5 years that he always chooses to print when things get dicey.

    Why do you think he will change his mind this time?

    BTW it's only a 15% position on the open. One is hardly going to lose everything even if the market went to zero.

    ReplyDelete
  67. I stand corrected on the dates. But the result is still the same. When the stock market put in it's yearly cycle low it forced a correction in gold. The dollar had already started to break down. It had already sniffed out QE2.

    The only difference now is the stretch is much more extreme in both asset classes which should lead to more violent reversals in both once the trend reverses.

    ReplyDelete
  68. we might open down 500-1000 points tomorrow if the panic sell continues...

    would be very interesting to see what Bernanke will do then...

    His only option would be something to relieve the selling pressure

    If not, we all (including Bernanke) knows what happened in 2008

    with employment already at 10-12%, we could see it go to the 20s...

    very scary times we live in...

    I've learnt my lesson of not chasing parabolas, not selling into fear and learning buying into panic...

    sentiment is lowest since march 2009...and I've never been more scared in my life about the market

    for the first time in my life, i'll take my chances and buy here...

    win or lose, I've become a better trader in that i've learnt to control my emotions

    ReplyDelete
  69. its still Sunday so here goes...


    Blindweb, SB, High 5, and the others that are awake to our reality, this is for you. Enjoy!

    T&J. Gold...or anything else can be measured as a unit. Therefore it is now a mathematical equation. Its infinite. Please don't trot that silly nonsense that "there are only so many ounces of gold' blah, blah , blah....That argument is for those who haven't been taught to think.


    No worries folks about MMT. Never going to happen. Pay attention to what the IMF, World bank and the central bankers' Central Bank, the Bank of International Settlements are doing. That is where the action is. The information can be found in publications and presentations to/by, Academics and the Elite to, Coventry House, Club of Rome and the CFR.

    Let there be no doubt, Prof Wray, Cullen, and the rest of the MMT crowd don't even register with the Elites who run this planet. They are 50 years behind in their thinking.

    having doubts?

    well read the writers from more than 60 years ago...

    Huxley, Orwell, Bernays, House, H.G. Wells, Shaw, or even closer to our time Quigley..its all there.

    T&J...get over it...whether you call it MMT, Social Credit, or Chartalism, it lost. tried and failed. Our rulers assured that.

    No freedom loving Human would knowingly choose a collectivist system. The elites know that. So, instead, they use simple techniques to train us how to think. linear thinking is primary to implement this system. Critical thinking is absolutely to be discouraged. And that is why you and millions of other can't make the link between, our ponzi scheme monetary system, our political system called Democracy,Jersey Shore, MTV, Facebook, Twitter and Google, LOL, LMAO, Crack cocaine, Crystal Meth, Planned parenthood, Global Warming, Mandatory Vaccinations, Mexican drug cartels, US dollar hegemony, North Korea et al, Prisons, and Public Education, that were all designed years ago for all of us.

    "Wake Up!, wake Up!

    Dress Up, Dress Up'
    \
    its all right, Its all right

    We are the party of freedom!

    We are not about to make that mistake twice "

    Two Party's . One Agenda.

    Read the authors I listed above and say it isn't so..oh say it ain't so Joe!


    two video's to watch. pay attention to the first one..in 1'45 seconds you can clearly hear the plan. make no mistake, the speach is not for you. it for the elites..because well you never consented to the New World Order, The United Nations can "fulfill its PROMISE and VISION of its FOUNDER'S"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9Syi12RJo&feature=related


    This one you play loud!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3npZJ4p2Yw&feature=related

    "watch and Learn"
    "God Bless America"
    "A New World Order"

    Its always currency event.


    Enjoy

    ReplyDelete
  70. Ken
    Went back and reviewed...

    You said "you called" 1162. Sorry to say but you observed numbers close to 1162.

    However you did just "call" on August 7, 2011 8:41 PM.

    As with Basil you are far too concerned with being "right" and your obvious "anger" (that has nothing to do with this blog or participants) is blinding you.

    I am quite amused with what you are writing here, in a mel brooks/pauly shore kind of way. There's comedic structure but ridiculous premise.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Gold is up 24 out of the last 26 days. Miners and silver are diverging badly. The move has now become parabolic.

    Everyone is predicting the end of the world and gold is going to rally $170 to $255 in the next two weeks.

    Folks when you start hearing this kind of talk it's time to take the other side of the trade.

    ReplyDelete
  72. how hard is it to call a break below 1162 when it is so close anyway. you might have had my ear if you "called" 1162 if in fact we were at 1262.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Well its still Sunday


    Blindweb, SB, High 5, and the others that are awake to our reality, this is for you. Enjoy!

    T&J. Gold...or anything else can be measured as a unit. Therefore it is now a mathematical equation. Its infinite. Please don't trot that silly nonsense that "there are only so many ounces of gold' blah, blah , blah....That argument is for those who haven't been taught to think.


    No worries folks about MMT. Never going to happen. Pay attention to what the IMF, World bank and the central bankers' Central Bank, the Bank of International Settlements are doing. That is where the action is. The information can be found in publications and presentations to/by, Academics and the Elite to, Coventry House, Club of Rome and the CFR.

    Let there be no doubt, Prof Wray, Cullen, and the rest of the MMT crowd don't even register with the Elites who run this planet. They are 50 years behind in their thinking.

    having doubts?

    well read the writers from more than 60 years ago...

    Huxley, Orwell, Bernays, House, H.G. Wells, Shaw, or even closer to our time Quigley..its all there.

    T&J...get over it...whether you call it MMT, Social Credit, or Chartalism, it lost. tried and failed. Our rulers assured that.

    No freedom loving Human would knowingly choose a collectivist system. The elites know that. So, instead, they use simple techniques to train us how to think. linear thinking is primary to implement this system. Critical thinking is absolutely to be discouraged. And that is why you and millions of other can't make the link between, our ponzi scheme monetary system, our political system called Democracy,Jersey Shore, MTV, Facebook, Twitter and Google, LOL, LMAO, Crack cocaine, Crystal Meth, Planned parenthood, Global Warming, Mandatory Vaccinations, Mexican drug cartels, US dollar hegemony, North Korea et al, Prisons, and Public Education, that were all designed years ago for all of us.

    "Wake Up!, wake Up!

    Dress Up, Dress Up'
    \
    its all right, Its all right

    We are the party of freedom!

    We are not about to make that mistake twice "

    Two Party's . One Agenda.

    Read the authors I listed above and say it isn't so..oh say it ain't so Joe!


    two video's to watch. pay attention to the first one..in 1'45 seconds you can clearly hear the plan. make no mistake, the speach is not for you. it for the elites..because well you never consented to the New World Order, The United Nations can "fulfill its PROMISE and VISION of its FOUNDER'S"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9Syi12RJo&feature=related


    This one you play loud!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3npZJ4p2Yw&feature=related

    "watch and Learn"
    "God Bless America"
    "A New World Order"

    Its always currency event.


    Enjoy.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Gary's a big boy Mark you don't need to fight his battles. I'll email the trade confirms to prove my point Gary if need be. Never the less the 15% trade isn't going to get people hurt as you've got everyone out of gold's d-wave decline which will start this week. QE3 never comes and that's the curve ball that most will never see coming. The only think you'll see out of the Fed and the MSM is talk of QE3 which is where the fits and starts in the market happen. Friday's price action was indicative of just that. Talk out of the ECB brought the market up 38 S&P points from the intraday low. That's all bulls will get is "hope" that QE3 starts, but given enough time they'll see that it never does come. The FOMC will state clearly this Tuesday 11:15 PST that the market is on its own. The downdraft off the FOMC is going to be E.P.I.C. F.A.I.L. just like TARP, QE1, and Q2. We're on our own and you're and the market is not going to be rescued by another QE operation.

    Book it!!!

    ReplyDelete
  75. Why would the Fed remain on the sideline when both periods of QE have demonstrated the ability to inflate asset prices?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Ken,

    What planet are you on? There are debts to be paid, checks to be issued. Did our Reps suddenly grow a pair last night? At least one more round coming, on the House.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Gary needs me not. but there are other people here who may not recognise your dooms day ramblings for the meatless meatloaf it is.

    Everyone is responsible for their own trades, but you seem to want to occupy the 100th floor in the tower of song, representing those who do not need it nor want it. Your barely on the ground floor.

    put down the roach and back away.

    ReplyDelete
  78. thanks hkc for futures link.


    Here is a canadian psychic who predicted the Japan tsunami as well as the credit downgrade on July 29th.

    http://blairrobertson.com/blog/


    Per him, plan to play SSO and short the VXX :-)

    ReplyDelete
  79. Gold up 60 dollars and the day is just getting started. Sick.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Bernanke will print, no question about it. The US govt and the Fed have too much skin in the game (via MBS and various backstops and guarantees, fannie freddie etc) to allow a full on, true deflation. With the backstops, The TBTFs really are TBTF.

    The only question is how long it is going to take bernanke to blink. He is definitely playing with fire and he knows it.

    ReplyDelete
  81. It actually makes no sense to have QE3 when QE1-QE2 aren't even baked into the market or economy yet. It also doesn't make sense to have QE3 when S&P already downgraded our arses over "overspending".

    ReplyDelete
  82. Gary:
    If Bernanke prints and the $$$ 3 year low is still ahead, won’t Gold rise rapidly after a brief 4-6 day DCL? How can Gold IT low be ahead with the $$$ 3 year low ahead as well with Bernanke printing?

    Boy, sure is hard to sit on hands with Gold up over $60! But AGQ back in May is still fresh in my mind…Just hoping to recoup the lost profits from back then!

    I am with TZ and Poly – Gold drops into a DCL instead of IT low…Hopefully we can time it well just like the early July call!

    ReplyDelete
  83. The miners are diverging because the stock market is tanking in a panic. :)

    Have they ever outperformed the metals when the VIX is spiking? Sadly, I think we still need the stock market and the metals to be rallying at the same time for the miners to keep up, much less outperform the metals. One of the gold juniors I follow was down close to 20% last week. Now that's frustration with a capital F. Unreal.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Sorry, wanted to add: If Bernanke does not print, then guess King Dollar, here we come and bye bye Gold and SPX!

    ReplyDelete
  85. Buy and hold a core position of physical gold and silver and forget about it. You are nuts if you don't own some.

    I was buying ounces at $340 10 years ago. I also bought some at $1000, and gold promptly went to $700. Not such a big deal, was it.

    It may not make you wealthier, but i guarantee it isnt going to zero.

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  86. The futures are gaining traction.

    And I would not be surprised if we gap up in the morning.

    It seems the SP downgrade was a knee jerk reaction and the market is figuring out that it is safer to be in the market than in cash.

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  87. My tweets tonite:

    This is the most manufactured "bear market" I've ever seen. Debt ceiling debacle..bamm. S&P downgrade, bamm!

    As this "bear market" is as fake as big boobs on skinny girls, big dips are buying opportunities.

    S&P crazy political games played now makes them impotent. Market does an in-your-face rally http://t.co/DrPrlXl

    ]]]]]


    By the way, gold will likely begin to crash this week. And the bull market in equities is far from over.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Based on previous downgrades of European countries, their stock markets went up 15-25% the following year.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Well, if Beanie and Gary both agree on something, what could possibly go wrong?? :P

    ReplyDelete
  90. JP Morgan loves gold, sees it hit 1800$ in Dec.

    Two takes on this:
    a. Conspiracy and manipulation by big bad bullion banks. What conspiracy?

    b. TIMBER!

    ReplyDelete
  91. The legitimacy of the Fed will be called into question with the failure of QE3. Any American paying attention for the last decade has seen the debasement of the fiat currency to the benefit of the equity and gold markets. The Fed is already leveraged 55-1 and going up to 80-1 isn’t going to help the economy all its going to do is blow up. The Fed will be hard pressed to unwind a 55-1 leveraged balance sheet. Plus why would they continue to go all in when the market will keep calling their bluff? Does Bernanke really want to loose the Fed’s bank charter or the ability to secretly manipulate the worlds reserve currency and the world’s most productive economy? We saw what happened in the 2010 mid-term elections with the Tea Party. The Tea Party was spawned from government malefactors including but not limited to TARP, TALF, QE1, QE2, QE Lite and maybe QE3. You saw what the Tea Party did to the political establishment with the debt ceiling debate. It was the Tea Party that held that deal up and it’ll be the Tea Party that starts the movement to remove the Fed’s ability to destroy the value of our paper currency over time should QE3 be launched. Elites in both the Democratic and Republican establishment do not want even more Tea Partiers coming to D.C. to throw a monkey wrench in what they’ve been able to accomplish over the last 30+ years. The game has changed and the debt ceiling debate and the Tea Party movement scares people. Bernake told Congress the last time that he testified on the hill that the Fed has done everything they could to support the US economy and that another round of QE wouldn’t help but rather make things worse. Take him at his word and what he said at face value. What’s the upside in launching QE3 for the Fed? There isn’t an upside only a downside. Members of the Fed can clearly see that Obama is a cooked goose in 2012 with unemployment 10%+ and $75 million Americans on SNAP. The “smart money move” for Bernake and the Fed will let the blame fall squarely on Obama’s shoulders not theirs.

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  92. Gary,

    Will you put a stop loss order as well on your site?

    ReplyDelete
  93. Gary,

    If you are basing your short-term forecast on a QE3 starting soon, I respectfully think you will be disappointed.

    QE2, the Fed purchasing of US bonds, was started on November 10, 2010. It was not intended to reduce interest rates. The 30-year was at 4.28% in November and went to 4.76% by February. It was not intended to promote consumer barrowing or equity purchases. Banks and brokers are awash in free money to lend.

    QE2 was intended to increase the money supply, drive down the value of the US dollar, and create commodity inflation.

    As you have pointed out, deflation is Bernanke’s biggest fear because it will wreck our economy. We got it in 2009 when inflation averaged -.34%. It had turned back up the end of 2009 and early 2010 to about 2.5% because of QE1, a Fed funds rate of 0%-.25%. However, in mid-2010 deflation started coming back. In June through October 2010 inflation dropped down to a little over 1%. When Bernanke saw deflation coming back again he panicked and implemented QE2 that November.

    It worked and worked well. By May and June of this year he has inflation back up to 3.5%.

    And that is why you will not see QE3 soon – Bernanke has inflation where he wants it. QE3 will not happen until inflation drops back down to around 1% again and he thinks action is needed. That will take a while.

    It is also difficult for me to believe the US dollar can go much lower on increased supply. QE2 ended in July and the hose has been turned off for now. It could go lower on other factors.

    If you want to keep an eye on deflation and when QE3 might start, you may view a monthly inflation rate chart at: http://www.fintrend.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx

    I learn a lot from your analysis and enjoy it very much.

    ReplyDelete
  94. See, everything is OK.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44051683


    I agree with Natanarchist's earlier comments. I would add that most people don't realize that the Fed exists to facilitate theft AND the New World Order, one currency, etc so actually want the $USD to vanish over time. The tricky part is making people beg for the end to their sovereignty, which takes time and conditioning. Thus, the Fed will always pretend to guard the $USD as it slowly lets the air out.

    ReplyDelete
  95. By the way, "they" admit this much if one opens their ears to what it really being said.

    Let's see what today brings. Good luck, and be careful!

    ReplyDelete
  96. By the way I keep hearing sideline bears who are under committed watching the greatest shorting opportunity of the last three years unfold right in front of their eyes say the following, "When we get the bounce higher off QE3 I'll enter a 130% short position into that ramp!" Do they really think that's what the market is going to give them? Not going to happen. No, those sideline bears will be waiting for a bounce that never happens and eventually they'll capitulate and go short about the time the trapped underwater longs who also happen to be waiting for the QE3 bounce to unload postions at higher levels.

    What a perfect plan Mr. Market has designed to fool most of the people some of the time. It's almost like were watching the GD 2.0 played out in real-time. Sitting on my hands and watching the slow bleed day after day as politicos talk up the market only to see it fall again the next day is what we'll be seeing over the next 15+ months. Anyone wanting to get long should do so 2-3 months after the Nov 2012 elections just like they did in 2008 with Obama.

    Please don‘t use “hope” as an investment strategy folks. You see where “Hope & Change” has gotten President Obama don’t you? We’ve got a lot of people here in America hoping for a change in 2012.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Gary, could you put a blog link on the smTp site, so those of us operating on phones can get back and forth with postings. Thank you for the consideration.

    ReplyDelete
  98. The smart money will use the BS that comes out of D.C. and delivered on CBNC to build their short positions if they don't have them already. Use the talk, talk, talk and rumor this and rumor of that to your advantage. The second half GDP prints will be negative and so will the revisions to last quarters. We're going into a global depression and no amount of talking and rumoring of the market will change that fact. Limp into BEARX and GRZZX on days we're up 300 Dow points over the next 2-3 months and you'll be rewarded in late 2012 or early 2013 when bargains will be found everywhere for pennies on the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Goldman Sachs just upgraded gold and set a higher target price. I think we all know what their prop traders will be doing:)

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  100. Some perspective on miners vs. metal:

    In more "normal" times like the end of 2007 and before the dislocation, gold was priced around $840 and silver at $14.77 while the $XAU was roughly 185-190.

    Gold has doubled, silver up over 2x, and the XAU up only about 3%. I think the very real fear of deflation has hit the miners as traders expect a repeat of '08, but my bet is the reaction will not be nearly as severe.

    Just a hunch, but thought I'd share it anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  101. The major difference between '08 and now being that miners have been making lots of money and are sitting on piles of cash, so will not need to access credit markets for capital.

    Anyway, enough from me. I'll check back at the open. :)

    ReplyDelete
  102. Veronica,

    I completely agree with you!

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  103. Ken,
    The fed is not an elected body, so they could really care less what the public opinion is about them. However, I do agree with alot of what you said.

    In terms of monetary stimulus, I agree that we will not get a formal expansion of the Fed balance sheet (yet?) similar to QE1 and QE2. Their next move will be to change the duration of their treasury holdings by buying longer dated maturities. They can either continue to just reinvest proceeds from MBS and maturing treasuries, or actually sell some of their shorter maturities to finance additional purchases. Net net, there will be no expansion of their total holdings just a change in their average maturity. The effect will be to force duration matching investors into risk assets in a search for yield. If short term yields rise as a result, they will then just lower the interest that they pay on reserves to force banks into short dated treasuries.

    I think the market is already pricing this in as money continues to flow into treasuries despite the credit rating downgrade.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Ladies and Gentlemen, This Is Captain Lucifer Speaking.

    On behalf of the flight crew, let me welcome you aboard SPX flight 1162. We should touch down in hell at 11:15 (PST) Tuesday 8/9/12, depending on this headwind and the number of breaking news rumors by the CNBC mouth breathers of a Warren Buffet bailout of the US Treasury. Uncle Warren thinks the US should be rated AAAA so he’s going to buy, buy, buy while US debt is trading at or near all time highs. That’s what guys like Buffet does, “Buy high and sell low…” Not!

    Folks, we’ve just hit our cruising altitude of 11,200 feet. I’ve turned off the seat-belt light, which means you are now free to move about the cabin. However, for your own safety, please fasten it when you are seated, in case we encounter any unexpected turbulence or I jerk the stick back and forth. This one time, I hit an “air pocket” at SPX 1162 and sent, like, 12 passengers flying about the cabin straight up to the ceiling. Unfortunately many passengers died when they tried to buy the dip.

    Although, to be precise, you don’t “fly straight up” when a QE3 announcement happens. Actually what happens is the airplane suddenly drops, while you remain in place. So the ceiling hits you hard in the head. No that’s not fun! Though I’ve turned off the seat-belt light, please note the “no smoking” light will remain on throughout the flight, in compliance with FAA regulations. You may not smoke in the lavatories and federal law prohibits tampering with the smoke detector. Feel free to pack a chew as I know everyone is nervous about the opening price action and neither are federal crimes… Yet!

    Flight attendants, two dirty martinis to the cockpit, please. Another light I’ve turned on is the “don’t wiggle your leg obsessively” light. Why do some people do that? Are they nervous about being on the wrong side of the trade? Why do they refresh their browser every 2-3 seconds to see how much more money they’ve lost in the last couple of seconds. Don’t just sit there shaking their leg back and forth, refreshing your web browser wondering what to do. Do something, anything, just try not to panic.

    Please also note FAA regulations require passengers to follow the instructions of the flight crew at all times. So if I ask you to raise your tray tables and seats to the upright and locked positions prior to entering into turbulence, do it! If masks drop from the ceiling unexpectedly take that as a bad sign and not that I may have to dump the plane into shark infested waters. Don’t worry though the cushion under your seat is actually a flotation devise. Use it to beat back the sharks as they eat you alive.

    Depending on the time of the day and if things get really bad or should we hit the “air pocket” just below the 1162 SPX level and start to waterfall off like the “Flash Crash” in May 2010 you might hear me scream orders over the cabin P.A. or possibly even say a small prayer to God to spare the lives of the many and just close the market for a couple of hours or better yet the rest of the day/week. We can’t have too much panic and chaos so we might just close the market down.

    On behalf of your cockpit and cabin crews, please, sit back and enjoy your trip.

    ReplyDelete
  105. all right ken we get it. straight to hell. this time will be different. maybe- the great part is, we get to find out very soon!

    meanwhile--and i know it was a sunday night--hourly volume in /GC did not accompany that move AT ALL. could very well change but smells more like short covering so far. let's see what happens when that gap fills..

    *grabs popcorn*

    ReplyDelete
  106. It's funny,
    I'm watching two charts next to each other, the 1st one is Gold and the other one is NDX100, talk about mirror images!

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. Recession Warning, and the Proper Policy Response

    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

    http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc110808.htm

    Be calm, Carry on.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Don't expect another QE yet - there's enough money around. More likely we'll get them replacing maturing maturing bonds with longer termed mortgages, cutting the 1/4 pt they pay to banks on reserves parked with the central bank, etc

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/qe3-expect-at-most-qe-21-at-fed-meeting-2011-08-08?siteid=YAHOOB

    ReplyDelete
  110. Ah. I see PST already went into that! :)

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  111. NJ,
    Look at the chart I just linked to what happened last year when the market started to sniff out QE2.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Most Popular News Article on Bloomberg: S&P Seen Surrendering to Tea Party Costing U.S. Taxpayer

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/s-p-seen-surrendering-to-tea-party-at-expense-of-u-s-taxpayer.html

    The Tea Party is for real and the MSM is trying to blame 30+ years of government malfeasances on Tea Partiers not entrenched Demopublicans proves it! The 2012 election will see the Tea Party movement double in size and influence. Ignore this political fact which creates King Dollar going forward at your own peril.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Folks this is not how a bull markets should act. They should grind higher. This has the possibility of being a final C-wave top followed by a left translated intermediate cycle.

    The miners are trying to warn that something is wrong.

    Think rationally here. When has gold ever jumped $60? either when it was in a bear market or at a parabolic blow off top.

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  114. It's already threatening to put in a key reversal if the early trend continues.

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  115. Pre-market S&P is currently at 1665, below Fridays lows. Would be much more bullish if we held above 1168. So much for Fridays candle on the charts.

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  116. baby stepping into SSO starting at $39.80

    will increase once/(if!) that trade goes green.

    today may just fool everyone and be a bunch of choppy garbage.

    ReplyDelete
  117. I agree with Gary that the risk in holding gold here is way bigger than the potential reward. Any kind of stop that makes sense would be so much lower than where we are now, that it is just very risky to stay long.

    Regarding the S&P, I don´t think this bottom will be an easy one. We will probably go up and down several times before any meaninful and consistent bounce can occur.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Long GDXJ 107%, SSO 8%*
    Cash 0%

    *New position

    ReplyDelete
  119. "I sell euphoria and buy panic." - Jim Rogers

    ReplyDelete
  120. What Downgrade? Treasurys Rally as Safe Haven

    ReplyDelete
  121. I added 5% more shares to each mining position I have, with more substantial bids a few percent below market prices.

    Didn't add to PHYS.

    ReplyDelete
  122. "Think rationally here. When has gold ever jumped $60? either when it was in a bear market or at a parabolic blow off top."

    You are correct Gary. As I feared (although certainly very happy about) this is becoming a blow-off. It could run another hour, reverse and drop $80 or run many more days/weeks, and hit $1,900 in 1-3 weeks.

    Blow-off's tend to defy gravity for longer than you can believe and reach unimaginable peaks, but they should not to be traded by most people.
    Past gold blow-off's had similar trajectories and went much longer/deeper than this, but that means little here. Not much would surprise me now. My money stays with the blow-off, trimming profits all the way, but then I'm fairly protected against a crash and fully aware of the risks. As DG often says, not a pitch one needs to swing on, but if you're already in a deeply profitable position, I believe you still have options.

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  123. Speaking of miners, where's Alex these days?

    ReplyDelete
  124. Picked up some GSS at 2.20.

    If you believe in miner "value investing"......

    ReplyDelete
  125. Oh dear, look at SPY and QQQ. New lows of the day.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Miners GDX, SIL and GDXJ seem to have found a temporary bottom

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  127. Frank, watching that, too. I was in and stopped out of BGU this morning for a 2% gain. Was thinking of getting some more exposure if we could hold the morning's lows. Now, it just looks ugly.

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  128. need to set the trap first. can't get the very last short to commit by just rocketing out of the gate.

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  129. I think Captain Lucifer is driving us right into shark infested waters.

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  130. well..looking like another 500 point..

    tommorrow's fed meeting becomes soooo key now...

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  131. looks like I spoke too soon...looking like a 1000 point down day

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  132. Sure we could bounce a bit before Fed speak day. But broken bear markets are broken bear markets. 20 foot waves - are you up to it!? 3 standard-deviation outlier move becomes 10-standard deviation in a bear in a heartbeat! Any bounce buy strategy would have had you -10 to -50% in 2008 because the volatility blew out any reasonable stops. If you did not use stops - as the stats guys says - you were "non path-dependant" - then you can go for smaller positions and ride them out but that's swimming against the tide and you're investing there ... don't buy falling knives do it - easier money in bull markets because of the lower volatility.

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  133. I'm going to be patient and wait for some huge BOW #s. Maybe later today or early tomorrow.

    Any sign of Alex or Cory? Hope all is well.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Wow thank goodness I held off on buying this morning. Still think the bounce will be huge, whenever it eventually comes.

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  135. this already has shades of 2008..

    the fed saw what happened then...

    the big question is will the feds allow the same thing to happen again?

    ReplyDelete
  136. Taking position in TQQQ, the sky is falling!

    ReplyDelete
  137. We can wait for a swing low to buy in.

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  138. If you want some comedy, put on CNBC. They just had Cramer on spewing some nonsense. Even though I am out in nowhere in Sweden the damn TD Ameritrade has a CNBC feed these days...

    ReplyDelete
  139. Frank,

    They're doing you a favor with the CNBC, making sure you get your steady dose of propaganda. :)

    ReplyDelete
  140. Greece has suspended short-selling for two months.

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  141. It won't be long before the US does the same. I told you this kind of stuff was coming.

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  142. Overall, the market hasn't fallen as much as I thought it might. I was fully expecting 600 points on the DOW.
    The day is not over though.

    ReplyDelete
  143. " William Wallace said...
    Taking position in TQQQ, "

    are you mad??

    ReplyDelete
  144. Don't post here much but S&P is taking a full swing @ this mkt. Looks like a "Goodfellas" moment. Is there anything else they can downgrade? Some of these prices are "If its ever that price again I'm buying" Hard to pull the trigger, have to hold nose and jump on a few things.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Trying to time a perfect bottom probably isn't going to work in this volatile environment.

    But we are late enough in the daily, intermediate, and yearly cycle that any position in this range should be hugely profitable as the market rallies out of that major cycle low.

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  146. Lol problem with taking a position like tqqq is your screwed if it drops cause you can't hold long term due to decay. Currently the market could drop another 5% just as easily as it could turn around and soar.

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  147. Gold volatility has gone from 18 to 25, VIX from 20 to 40 (a significant crash-type event). For those looking for a spot to enter the bull market in miners, you can take the timing uncertainty out of the equation by selling 60-85% puts on big miners with very high volatilities at 55-65% as a way to enter them 15-40% below current price and have time-decay and deline in volatility work in your favour. Will need to be able to have the cash to buy and absorb the stock if it gets down there by expiry.

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  148. I bought NSQ futures at 2125 and now I am lighting a candle hoping that Gary has not gone thru suntroke ....
    :-)

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  149. Have to agree w/Gary, all this negative news @ once is rare in its self. Wait S&P just downgraded the POPE to CCC-

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  150. BoW SPY looking good, so far.

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  151. E Trade baby today http://www.youtube.com/v/W4hfdaC7eL4?

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  152. Natanarchist,

    Agreed. Why would anyone be interested in a monetary theory that talks about people as "subjects" and believes these "subjects" must be forced to invest their savings in Wall Street in order to do their duty to their nation.

    Typical authoritarian BS from T & J.

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  153. NGD is 4% off its low today. My favorite miner.... It often leads turnarounds in miners.

    It would also be very indicative if SLW (who "missed" today) can claw back to green.

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  154. Obama talks at 1pm. Possible catalyst?

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  155. If this continues the BoW numbers will be huge by the end of the day.

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  156. Bit off a little QLD. Waiting for a swing low for the rest. Out of gold except core physical.

    ReplyDelete
  157. From Kevin Depew's twitter today:
    "TD Buy Setup 9s recording today on DAX, FTSE-100, CAC-40, SP, SPX, NDX, CCMP, TSX, ... tomorrow for IBOV, NKY"
    These are DAILY buy setups, so 1-4 day (Tuesday-Friday) UPSIDE reactions expected in all of these indices...or maybe we crash and the rest of this doesn't matter :)
    We also more than likely will perfect the NDX WEEKLY BUY setup, as we made a lower low in the NDX today. This week is on Bar 8 and will record Bar 9 next week, so this will be in effect from August 22 to Sep 16.

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  158. Interesting the dollar diving as that news comes out - as if "Obama" were spelled "QEx"

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  159. Too soon to call bottom in miners, but they're now outperforming the metals.

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  160. Although the majors are doing much better than juniors, as evidenced by GDX vs. GDXJ

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  161. Ha. That didn't take long for SLW. Let's see if it can hold.

    Oh boy, I have to get out of here. Now they have Geithner on. Have you noticed that both he and Obama whistle when they speak. That really bugs me. Maybe they learn that at socialist youth camps when they are kids?

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  162. If the miners can follow the stock market up while gold corrects then the divergence will be rectified and at that point I would be interested in metals again.

    I am not interested in anything that is showing signs of a parabolic blowoff top. I learned my lesson in May about trying to pick the exact top of a parabola.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Frank,
    Look at SLW's Canadian price.

    ReplyDelete
  164. I'd like to get out of here for awhile today too, but unfortunately I have to stick around and add more miners into dips.

    I'm still prepared for more weakness throughout the week, but GDX is trying to turn the shorter term charts higher. We might have seen the near term lows already.

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  165. GLD on top of SoS list and SPY on top of BoW list...

    gold seems like the superpower---unstoppable

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  166. The only other time in the last 11 years that the 10 day RSI has reached this level of oversold was right after 9/11.

    Look at what followed.

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  167. Yes the market is preparing for a reversal of the two trends.

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  168. The big question is will the miners follow stocks higher, or gold lower?

    I must admit I have no clue what to expect in that regards

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  169. The miners aren't following the stock market up today Gary, they're leading it.

    One can't get much more relative strength than GDX+4% with S&P's down over 3%

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  170. even for a gold bull as myself.

    i can see a HARD correction coming.

    gold is way off the charts. 1738 is what i'm calling as the end of the run.

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  171. But I do hope the general mkt gets some legs in here. :)

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  172. Blogger Shalom Bernanke said...

    I'd like to get out of here for awhile today too, but unfortunately I have to stick around and add more miners into dips.

    Hey SB

    I see STRENGTH in your Miners! Flight to value? Dow down almost 300 and I see RIC, EGO, EXK, GG, etc showing good signs of buying volume. :)

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  173. "The big question is will the miners follow stocks higher, or gold lower?"
    -Gary

    Same here, I don't know.

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  174. Where can I find SOS list, and/or what is it?

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  175. GLD buyers vs sellers ratio is 8.28:1
    This is the highest I have seen of any stock myself, is this a rush of emotional buying or rational?
    SPY ratio is 1.69:1 for buyers!

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  176. SB,
    I'm more concerned about the months of the divergence. The same thing happened with energy stocks as oil went parabolic.

    At this point we have an obvious parabolic move happening in gold and months of divergence in mining stocks. That makes me very nervous.

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  177. Alex,

    Hope you still got 'em. We'll know more this afternoon, but it might be a safe to start adding size into dips.

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  178. Add to that we have had several large SoS days on GLD.

    I noted previously that the same thing happened at the 09 top.

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  179. Gary,

    I agree and have the same concerns, although miners didn't really get hammered until the general market did.

    Still, I see you points.

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  180. And I also agree that gold could take a hit if stocks get some legs.

    I'm trying to get in position of heavily invested in miners at decent prices for the rest of the bull. I do not want to stay in confetti at this later stage in the gold bull.

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  181. I bought a lot of AG cheap enough 2day I could sell it now 4 a decent profit...BUT I WONT :)

    and RIC ,, EGO , HMY, etc volume is telling me that they are recognized as Value now.I.M.H.O.

    Back to the charts for now.

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  182. Miners have seen some major volume the last couple days. Certainly has the feel of capitulation.

    With gold this stretched about the 200DMA, I have been expecting a large correction to the mean. However, today's move combined with the dollar movement does have me wondering whether this move could be a runaway parabola like we saw in silver.


    I can't say I'm expecting it, because it'd be an unprecedented move for gold. However, we did see action like that in silver and a few other commodities earlier this year. It's possible.

    It also seems like most everyone is expecting a heavy rally in the markets this week. Wondering if that could be a bad omen.

    Just thinking out loud.

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  183. Silver rallied $10 in nine days and then formed a top.

    Gold has rallied $120 in 11 days. Does that sound more like a bottom or a top?

    Control your emotions folks and recognize what is happening.

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  184. SB
    I heard that traders were going long precious metals and short miners earlier this year. Do you think we might be seeing a reversal of this trade. Traders selling gold into strength and buying back miners to cover their shorts.

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  185. Miners and silver both continue to diverge seriously despite the strength in miners today.

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  186. Mike,
    That is a nonsense trade. The reason the miners diverged is because they knew a serious correction was coming not because hedge funds were shorting miners and buying gold.

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  187. mikezza,

    I have no idea, but if I were in that trade I'd start to unwind it.

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  188. Gary,
    I keep wondering how would the miners "know" or predicate a move in metals?
    Never got that...

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  189. tanks gary and SB. just trying to make sense of it all

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