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Friday, August 26, 2011

POSSIBLE PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A possible portfolio change has been posted to the website.

158 comments:

  1. Any one else concerned here that PM shares continue to underperform relative to gold? If they were breaking out, they should be outperforming gold today IMO.

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  2. Youve even got the market in in the green so that should be pushing them up even more so.

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  3. maybe they will. but in post earlier said gold looked better than miners for today.

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  5. Well it appears Silvercorp management it trying to squeeze SVM shorts. Finally someone acting on this non sense.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=+20110826&archive=ccnm&slug=201108260723197001

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  6. Today's daily GDX volume will probably finish below average and is lower than y'days.

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  7. EXK looks really strong - nice looking chart

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  8. DP, you can see inflation on the big big timeframes ofcourse like in the 1970s ... harder on the smaller timeframes I suppose. Remember, young and middle-aged guys have only ever seen a monster bear market in bonds, deflation ... http://www.freeimagehosting.net/ffef5

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  11. Anybody else see the massive volume spike on GDX at 22 minutes after the hour?

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  12. hui= patience is all that was needed

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  13. Gary
    With the move this am in Spx breaking below yesterdays low, do we have a swing high?

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  14. I am sitting this one out. This just looks like a bull trap to me. I don't think Ben will announce more QE this weekend but I will not hold any positions going into the weekend.

    Remember silver rebounded all the way to $47 not long after the big crash.

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  15. Catbird,
    It's not that huge, just a good volume of buys.

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  16. Looks like great push to the wire. Monday should be interesting day W/Irene going up East Coast. Live in Central NC just starting rain, hang on to yo asz. Good call Gary, little sweaty this morning, great finish, looking to weekend report.

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  17. Thoughts on gold futures. Some might be interested. During the past week, December gold has swung from 1917.90 to 1705.40 (intraday extremes), and now sits at an almost exact 50% retracement of the violent down-move (1805-ish -- these things are never as exact as some wonks would have you believe...). If we start finding support at 1750-1775, in my opinion, we will have already seen the extreme low in the correction, and will simply slop around between 1750 and 1850 for awhile before starting the next leg up. Otherwise, this is STILL a dangerous place to be long gold. The quality gold miners, though, should start to improve vs. the bullion, simply because they have already been consolidating around current areas for quite awhile.

    The last two COT reports have shown unusual options activity, as well as a remarkable surge in the "spreaders" categories in both the "Combined Futures and Options Reports" and the "Futures Only Reports." During these past two reporting periods (8/2-8/16), the "Combined Futures and Options" open interest has comprised over 45% of the total open interest. This report hit a record open interest in the most recent report (8/16) of 952,078 contracts. The "Futures Only" report is nowhere NEAR its all-time high of over 700,000 contracts, showing a total open interest of 514,107 contracts. The most recent update, posted this morning, hasn't changed much, showing a total open interest of 514,635 contracts, BUT the active December contract, on a day when gold went sideways (up a piddling 5 bucks), shed more than 15,796 contracts, for a new total of 340,628 contracts. Meanwhile, open interest in the October contract ROSE a whopping 10,134 contracts, to a new total of 40,748 contracts. All of this suggests that many of the large speculators (as well as the commercials, particularly the swap dealers) who were buying between 1600 gold and 1800+ gold were hedging their futures positions with options (i.e. the unusually large increases in the "Spreaders" categories, coupled with the unusually large increases in the "Combined Futures and Options" positions). You keep buying the gold, but you "spread" against your positions by buying puts, for protection. The surge in the October contract (which now, incidentally, makes it the second-most-active contract, as it yesterday surpassed the growing February 2012 contract for the first time...) could mean something OR nothing. It could mean that that is where the commercial longs and commercial shorts are squaring their books. Or, it could mean that deliveries MAY be on the increase, since the large speculators who have no plans for delivery still inhabit the December contract. We'll have to watch it. Today's report, to be released in an hour or so, should be interesting, since it will show the price action that included both the new all-time highs AND the beginnings of the correction.

    The large speculator bulls MAY be much better off than the pundits would have you believe, since it APPEARS that many of them bought protection, in the form of put options, all the way up. This MAY, consequently, be a shallower correction than we would normally expect, given the violence of the run-up over the last couple of months. These are good hypotheses, but remain merely in the realm of conjecture, at this point. As much as I admire Martin Armstrong, his work apparently doesn't include changes in the options situation at the Comex.

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  18. Just woke up and still groggy. I'll wait to add until next week, after I can assess what's happening.

    SVM still a pig, EXK a superstar.

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  19. Great close into the weekend. Hopefully we get a nice confirmed breakout early next week and im able to join the party.

    Enjoy your weekend everyone!

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  20. Michael --

    Thanks for nice chart. End of 70's inflation is amazing.

    That's what we could have expect the next year, I guess?

    I clicked your picture once to zoom it in, and I've got -- guess what? Even more interesting one:

    http://www.freeimagehosting.net/ca565

    These things are non-inflationary, I guess :)

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  21. Thanks Miyagi.

    Encouraging the traders were willing to hold miners over the weekend.

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  22. DP, certainly want to be all-in that dip! :-)

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  23. Catbird,
    No problem, here's what a huge million share volume looks like at the end today. OBV is up which is good the only downside is that it is overbought.

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  24. Gold margin hike imminent

    The big boys are trying to throw cold water on the party.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/caution-another-gold-margin-hike-imminent

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  25. It's been telegraphed for days. No surprises there. They should have done it a long time ago. It would have slowed down the rally and made gold much easier to trade.

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  26. Looks like we are off to the races again huh? Seen gold break out of a consolidation that was put in by Ben speech and just started grinding higher, knew it was time to jump back in... Long futures now, the ride down from 1900 short
    was a bit nerve racking when having to go to bed wish I never had to sleep! This bull has motives into a buff bull, $70 ups and downs are a regular now, probably see 2300 soon.

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  27. Gary,

    I knew that bounce was going to be violent of the 30sma, wasn't sure if gold would reverse though when backtesting the 10sma, think it's safe to say it don't look like that will happen though.

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  28. WW,
    Going to have to learn futures like you, so can trade out at night if needed.
    After all the up/downs/all arounds I went into the weekend with minimum holds. So I could sleep. :)

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  29. WW stays up till 3am, I can't do that, my wife would leave me!

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  30. Now i gotta keep an eye pasted to the screen, one eye open while I sleep to catch tops, was close enough when I took my short at 1900, I think I know what to look for now in the futures, hopefully :)

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  31. MrMyagi,
    WW must have gotten the good wife. :)

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  32. Ok back to hurricane preparations. Hope my house don't land in Oz, although I feel like I'm in Oz everyday with my wife, everytime she gets out of the car in the rain I say "I'm melting!"

    Wish us the best everyone, hope everyone has a good weekend because I don't think I will be!

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  33. WW,
    Prayers are with you and yours. And everyone else this weekend up the coast. Crazy earthquakes, hurricanes, what's next?

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  34. The big daddy silver miner PAAS to buyback 5% of its shares.

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  35. Harry, I think you are the smart one.

    This is starting to feel like deja vu all over again....

    London markets closed on Monday. The possibility that hurricane Irene could interfere with NY markets Monday. Margin hikes likely this weekend. Huge rally in gold going into the close of today's market. Feels a little similar to the silver trap we got caught in.

    As they say, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

    Hope this is not the case, but I lightened up just as a precaution. I have no problem chasing a little if markets/gold continue in their upward trajectory next week.

    Very, very best wishes to all of you on the east coast. Be safe.

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  36. Took off my TQQQ over the weekend, NYSE may be under water Monday, just a tiny precaution.

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  37. Since gold is traded after hours it is useful not only to look at charts of GLD but also of $GOLD on StockCharts. What shows up on the $GOLD chart (but does not show up on the GLD chart) is what some might consider a 'Hammer' candle that printed on Thursday and was apparently confirmed by a big white candle on Friday. This could signal a bullish reversal if you believe two bad down days was a bearish 'trend'. I'm not a candle expert. It's just interesting.

    "The reliability of the Bullish Hammer Pattern is low. It requires confirmation of the implied trend reversal by a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the next trading day."

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  38. Alex

    Good charts on the miners yesterday am. The sleeping giant has awaken.

    I can't wait for an "old turkey" trade...

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  39. Alex is the miner king, he picks bottoms better than anybody.

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  40. Poly

    Yep. Soon after he posted those charts someone slapped Gary.

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  41. SPX Weekly Observation Chart :


    http://screencast.com/t/q7MVa0qxl

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  42. Whenever I hear everyone talking about miners it makes me wonder if we are about to see a correction of considerable size. One day miners are sure to break out. But until that day...

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  43. Gann360

    Link does not work. Could you try again.

    Thanks

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  44. Hey S.F and POLY

    Thanks much!very kind. And right back atch!

    poly...I know you're in hurricane alley there in N.Y.( I'm above you in New England) , so stay safe and see ya on the other side!

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  45. Repost of Link


    SPX Weekly Observation Chart:


    Hope this works for you


    http://screencast.com/t/q7MVa0qxl


    http://screencast.com/t/q7MVa0qxl

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  46. Thanks Gann for all your charts...I look at all of them.

    Also POLY has been spot on with his cycle analysis on this Gold run. He has been in almost the whole way up. Nice Job POLY , against all belief!

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  47. Alex

    Do you have a twitter account? I follow gann360 on twitter and I can scroll thru all his charts. Just a thought.

    Thx

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  48. Michael (Hulk) ,

    What does a company buying back there shares imply? I have heard of this before but do not know the possible implications. (yet)

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  49. Alex and Poly,

    Yup, wondering if you have the time/inclination to do twitter updates.

    Thanks for all your contributions.

    Elaine

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  50. Two graphics

    One is a knee slapper the other is an eye opener

    http://abstrusegoose.com/391

    http://macromon.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/sp500_822.jpg

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  51. SF and ELAIN

    Actually I dont have a twitter account ...never thought of it really,but probably Not a bad idea I guess...

    I definitely do a LOT more thoughts and charting ( market analysis --even daily) than I post here. I have friends and relatives that are invested and they ask many questions via Email ...EVERYDAY!! LOL
    -along w/ my own curiosity and personal investing ,so I dig in to charts, its a way to stay sharp.

    I'll look into it. thx

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  52. The Bear Case on miners:

    We are still in a parabola. Either the parabola has already broken or it hasn't broken yet -- take your pick. Both are risky.

    Sentiment is still off the charts.

    Gdxj et al remain below their recent highs, as well as highs set months ago. Theoretically this is supposed to be predictive of a coming decline.

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  53. WW,

    Good luck for this weekend. All of you on the East Coast are in my thoughts.

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  54. Gann360,

    Thanks for your charts. I look at all of them, they clarify market views.

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  55. David,

    The bull case for miners, regardless of what bullion does. Silver did not move today, yet SLW was up 3.66.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/IJxn8LQN

    Miners are going to now get re-priced to catch up to the bullion prices that now suddenly seem sticky.

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  56. Been on summer vacation but my my my....how true as Gary said...." never ever short a bull market"

    James Turk predicting gold short covering next week and burst in prices on king world news

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  57. Since miners appear to have turned higher, there won't be much need for action until I see where they pull back to next round. When they're working well, I like to get away from the computer and avoid information overload.

    I intend to hold them through the D-wave whenever if comes, if it hasn't already, and use that as another oppty to add. Hoping it starts from much higher levels, :)

    I must avoid selling when SMTer's anticipate a future pullback as I'll likely agree, for much larger gains in the future. Old Turkey, D-wave or not.

    I'll be more active when it's time to do more buying. Good luck!

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  58. See you guys when it's time to buy. :)

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  59. There is potential for a violent PM sell off just like 2008 if the market rolls over. Don't think for a minute it is not possible.

    Lay a 2008 chart of silver over a 2011 chart of silver and... it will make your blood run cold.

    Not saying it will or it won't. We have no idea what will happen. We can only guess. Just saying it could and that we may be just days away from it happening.

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  60. Danno

    Are you suggesting we are at the March 2008 double top in silver or the July top and about to begin the decline into the 2008 lows?

    I think most who subscribe to SMT are expecting a large decline at some stage, it's just a matter of when.

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  61. Silverhound,
    I really can't suggest anything because my firmest belief that it is impossible to know what will happen during shorter time frames like 1 to 6 months. We can only guess. That's why I am in the habit of taking a little money and betting the other way just to be safe. If you lay a 2008 chart of silver over a 2011 chart then we would be right about July 21, 2008 (give or take a few days).

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  62. ^ However this charts laying over another chart practice does not always work as many know. It's just a hint of what 'could' happen.

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  63. 2008 was an eight year cycle low for precious metals. We shouldn't see anything similar to that again until 2016.

    So I really doubt a chart from 2008 is going to be in any way predictive for 2011.

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  64. James Turk spectacular gold cover...

    I hope he's wrong. Another gold parabola might scare the more seasoned investors and traders, who buy miners, away. A nice steady grind would be good, or even a very volatile grind.

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  65. Gary,

    Thank you for a great weekend report and all your hard work. This summer has been very confusing, I just thought it was my inexperience and that I am not good at analyzing the data. For someone like you to say it has been difficult is reassuring.

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  66. SPX Daily Chart comparing 2007/2011 Pivot High's:

    http://screencast.com/t/0WMST24uc

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  67. Gann,
    That's a lot of work you put into your charts, thank you as always.

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  68. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  69. This is pretty funny. Barron’s has an article today predicting a big decline in the POG. To support this, they reference Steve Briese, publisher of the Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders newsletter. Says Barron’s: “But not wishing to overly bug the gold bugs, he recommends only that they consider taking profits and then wait to buy back eventually at what he believes will be much lower prices. This is a similar prediction to the one Briese made for commodity indexes in the March 31, 2008, Barron’s cover story. In that case, he was proved right by year end.”

    So his prediction was vindicated more than 8 months later? Imagine how far prices can move up in 8 months before turning down, lol! I’d be a lot more worried if Barron’s have a feature story saying the POG was going to the moon…

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  70. I know it is only TMZ but
    Steve Jobs looks frail, looks a little phoney to me but I don't know for sure, after all why would he be posing for this picture?

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  71. Gann, thanks for your response to my question a couple of posts ago. Very informative, and nice scalp play on ZSL. Congrats.

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  72. Valuation gap makes gold miners attractive

    http://www.businessinsider.com/valuation-gap-makes-gold-miners-attractive-but-all-miners-arent-created-equal-2011-8

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  73. Eerily quiet here this morning, I hope all our Eastern friends are safe.

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  74. MrMyagi, I was thinking the exact same thing. Hoping all made it through ok.

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  75. Mr. M/ at ease,

    Thanks for thinking of us. Just north of the city here. Just a ton of rain and some brisk wind last night. Clear in the morning. Still have power...

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  76. RJ, Glad to hear it! We need everyone on board for this week to get going. Have heard from a few out on cable, but didn't lose power on LI.

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  77. Ham Investor,

    Steve Briese is the inventor of Gary's "Blees Rating".

    In recent years his signals have not neen as good as they were in the 1980's and 1990's.

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  78. The Blees rating mostly only works for gold bottoms. It used to work pretty good for the stock indexes until the advent of dark pools made the futures market less reliable as a hedging indicator.

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  79. Gold Stocks,

    Number 1)

    A subscriber to Bill Fleckenstein's www.fleckensteincapital.com noted that gold stocks showed up on page 4 of Investors' Business Daily's "change in volume plus acculumulation/distribution charts" for first time in years in the last two weeks. Some days half the 16 stocks highlighted were gold stocks.


    Meaning: the institutions are heavily buying gold miners - all the big ones. Price follows accumulation.

    Number 2)

    Frank Holmes of US Global Investors noted that BMO (Bank of Montreal) analysts have largest gold miners at their highest peak of IRR (Internal Rate of Return) since 1993. Other two big peaks when large gold stocks were dirt cheap: 2000 when gold began its bull move and October 2008 at the bottom when gold stocks exploded.

    Holmes also noted that RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) has gold miner FCF (Free Cash Flow) and profit margins at unheard of profitablity if gold stays at these levels.

    Bottom Line: The party has started for gold miners over the next few years. Big money was what was needed and big money sees gold stocks as value.

    Fundamentals do count eventually.

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  80. We can only play the odds. Speculating (which is what we are doing here) is a form of gambling. This is not investing. Gary says the 'odds' of another 2008 crash in PMs is not great. I accept that and even agree with Gary. Of course, we little people can't say for certain. That was my only point. We can only make (hopefully) educated guesses. Where most speculators go terribly wrong is becoming overconfident and believing they actually know what is going to happen during shorter time frames. I don't believe that is possible because "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid". Not trying to pick a fight. Nothing to fight about. Just sharing. Good luck.

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  81. BTW... the photo of Steve Jobs was apparently Photoshopped. You can Google it.

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  82. Lot's of talk that gold has a good way to go higher (Week 9) and Equities having found an IT low and due for a strong bounce.

    That would require a break or change in the recent correlations of Dollar/Gold up and equities\risk down on sovereign and liquidity fear trade.

    Did the correlation really break? Did Jackson Hole change anything?

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  83. It looks like the only thing that has changed is that gold has gone back to it's inverse relationship with the dollar.

    I have to admit that surprised me. I thought hot money would start flowing out of gold and into the stock market, but it looks like liquidity is flowing into both.

    Perhaps the gold rally will slow drastically once traders become convinced the stock market rally is for real.

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  84. http://screencast.com/t/11ToSWQEbaia

    This is Gann360's 60 min chart of a few days ago.

    Note the GLD gaps, what I refer to as appearing in the commodity as the NYPit gaps.

    They're now filled.

    Question to Feel and Gann360 and Poly:

    What's your trading philosophy regarding gaps like these, especially daily gaps like these?

    Sure, they won't reoccur for a while, but in prep of the next time, what's your approach?

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  85. I'm not a fan of following any gaps on tracking stocks, like GLD, that trade 9/5, but track securities trading 24 hours. Its clear this discrepancy will creat artificial gaps in the tracking stock.

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  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  87. 2006 gold vs today with overlay chart. Pretty close.

    http://profitimes.com/free-articles/gold-2006-vs-gold-today-does-it-look-familiar

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  88. I've lost money betting on gap fills. I'd stay away from that notion.

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  89. Gap fills cost me huge. I was short huge but then got out of that position b/c of the IWM gap that I'd thought will fill prior to the collapse a few weeks ago. I would have made a killing if that gap wasn't there.

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  90. Gary,

    So you're long miners and the markets now?

    Don't have to answer, just thought I'd ask.

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  91. James R,

    You mentionned last week that you thought that Treasuries yields couldn't go any lower. Is your view the following: stocks up, risk on, treasuries down?
    If so, do you have a target on tye 10y?
    My view is that if the stock market rallies 10% in the next few weeks, we could see 3-3.25 % on the 10y

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  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  93. With stocks, gaps don't have to fill, in fact it's a sign of strength if they don't fill. Not sure about gold, could be the same concept.

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  94. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  95. I'm mostly cash right now.

    It is my working opinion that gold peaked last week.

    I believe we will see some strength for a day or so, but by the end of the week it will be clear we are heading back to the lows (and lower).

    I think the selloff will proceed over a few weeks to around 1600 which will be the bottom (and last good buying opportunity for this bull market).

    And then I think we head back up again breaking $2000 before the end of the year.

    Friday was a strong surge up (I was expecting a rebound as I said, but from a lower level and not nearly as strong as we got.) However gold's action so far has not, in my book, done anything to suggest we will resume going higher.

    I'm not going to be stubborn. Clearly I could be wrong, but I'll let the market show me. Minimally we should at least put in SOME kind of congestion before shooting higher - If indeed that is where we are headed. If that happens I might re-engage.

    Regarding mining stocks I think there is a good chance they will move eventually, but as I continue to say I will become interested when they show they can outperform 'pure metal'. I won't predict it - I'll just let the chart show me. So far no:

    stockcharts[PUT.A.DOT.HERE]com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:CEF&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11354631542

    Finally I got around to listening to Ross Clark (Bob Hoye associate) and realize his views are very similar to mine of recent on gold:

    talkdigitalnetwork[PUT.DOT.HERE]com/2011/08/sentiment-extremes/

    I don't think it will take much time for the market to realize gold is either going up or down from here. This thing will move very shortly.

    So we'll see and I'll adapt as necessary. You know where I stand for now though.

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  96. Note that you have to replace text in those links cause I don't want google to block my account as spam.

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  97. TZ(8155),

    Does the direction of the USD impact your views on the action of gold?

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  98. Not really looking at the dollar.

    Clearly, long term, the reason everything is going to heck is the death of paper currencies and the dollar is suspect #1, however, my read on gold is simply that too many people got on one side of the boat and we have to correct now.

    I didnt' believe that way a week ago, but that's my opinion now.

    I don't expect us to stay down long, but I think a selloff is now the weaker direction. I think Morgan and Goldman knew it too...that's why they upgraded so publicly 2-3 weeks ago. To get the last suckers in.

    But maybe I'm wrong. Let's see how high it can rally and if we start selling off in a day or so.

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  99. TZ,

    I agree with you regarding Gold sentiment.
    Gary hinted it a few posts aagin saying that sooner than later, people will start buying the less loved ( stocks) and selling the most loved ( Gold).
    We need to see that action though soon if stocks starts thir rally. I think that so far, people are playing the same action as last year when Ben announced QE2, ie stocks & gold up, but they might be disappointed.

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  100. Sophia,

    I do think the 10yr bond has bottomed and the markets will begin diverting cash away from the bond markets and into the stock and the commodity markets.

    I do not think the markets will fall below the 2009 March low. The reason is because the Fed Reserved and the Govt. has pumped so much liquidity it will be irrational to buy the U.S. dollars.

    As for the 10yr bond. I see a sharp yield rising in the next 6 months. Back up to 4%. The Fed has stopped buying back our bonds so now the interest is free to float higher.

    Just my thoughts

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  101. I just don't see gold shooting up either in the short term.

    I say this b/c two/three weeks ago there was a stupendous amount of gold pumping and articles everywhere on the net. I doubt that precedes much more upside.

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  102. Either way, the gold market is performing excellent as a market right now: both bears and bulls are confused!

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  103. Thanks James for your answer. If there is no double dip, we should indeed see much higher rates very soon...

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  104. SPX 30 Month Cycle Chart:


    http://screencast.com/t/Bob4ylajYM




    I did this chart back in Early June:
    Lets see what September Brings?

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  105. Gann, nice chart thanks for sharing that, really puts things into perspective. what website are you using to create your charts?

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  106. I hope Frank still owns his NXG, bid up 46% on takeover this morning by AUQ.

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  107. SB

    A takeover bid this morning.

    Does that mean we are entering the PacMan phase for junior goldies?

    ;-)

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  108. There go gold and silver.....this is why Ill be waiting for a confirmed breakout of the HUI before I buy into this this PM stocks trading idea.

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  109. that drop in /GC last week hit a lot harder than people want to believe. seriously, the amount of volume that left in that one day alone was equivalent to all the buying that had taken place since 1600. so that's my target.

    miners look ..better... but

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  110. We should consolidate in a narrow range for the whole week, but hold $1,705. This will help clear the averages and over bought states. It could swing rapidly between the $140 range.
    Shakeouts are essential to prepare for the next move, they place enough fear in the mind.

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  111. Poly,

    My concern this whole time has been that we just had a nice parabola in gold. Parabolas dont end in small drops, consolidations and moves back up. They usually retrace a very large part of the gain to complete the backside of the parabola.

    Of course the parabola may not yet be complete but considering the large declines we already had, odds are it is and we just formed a bear flag here the past couple days.

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  112. MF Globle is looking for 1600 to 1580 this week

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  113. Thanks Poly, nice to have those reassuring thoughts. :)

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  114. I'm doing a little buying on the miners right here, then I'll be done for the day.

    No need to watch every tick since I'm not doing any selling for awhile.

    Good luck!

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  115. Added a little to my gold shorts. Not looking to get rich here, looking forward to picking up silver in the 30s more than anything if this plays out like past post parabola corrections

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  116. As far as this morning goes gold wants to go lower regardless of what the dollar does.

    First positive news in a while out of EU..is this the flight from gold to stocks Gary predicted?

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  117. Yes, I still own NXG. Have been trying to sell it since the pre-market. The acquirer (AUQ) is being hammered.

    Patience since late 2008 finally pays off but it still only shows less than 50% performance relative to NGD or SLW. Probably comparable to GDX.

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  118. Poly

    If you saw the charts I posted on the premium site, this is the area that gold consolidated in the 2006 and 2008 moves before going higher.

    Pure speculation on my part but aligns with your idea's.

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  119. SB,

    Added to SVM, GORO, and bot some AUQ (with Alex), and GDXJ... also picked up some TGB on the news and 52wk lows on Friday..Still holding AAG, EGD and IPT...what did you add today?

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  120. bot ag 22.34---sold dig 42.14

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  121. Dan Silverhound

    We're really getting into thinly or uncharted waters, so all of these scenario's are on the table.

    The general theme should be, don't get greedy, don't get married to a position and have an exit plan.

    I like playing the odds and they tell me to be very careful, but with upside remaining.

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  122. From this free thinker.

    What just happened is that we closed the gap. Yup, another gap, the night session on Fri opened a huge gap. It got closed in 10 min.

    Now, we're into choppy waters, just what Poly posted earlier today. That's dashing directionless trading as the panicked scurry back and forth, catching knives, and paying the traders who have this next piece down to a T.

    All night, last night, I was long, short, and back again. But a guy's gotta sleep, so I missed what I had expected to be an arc instead of a gallows drop. No big deal. More will always be upcoming.

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  123. We now see 3 strong GC opinions:

    Poly, previously "up", now cautiously hopeful.

    TZ, confident of down, though cautious.

    Gary, confident of D wave down.

    But for my own horse in this race, long a lotta phys silver, I'm just happy for the playable action.

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  124. Incorrect. The action in the miners is suggesting gold will make another attempt at $2000.

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  125. FRANK,

    I bought NXG last week. What is the benefit of selling now? Won't it just change to a better valuation of AUQ? I'm ignorant.

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  126. Gary,
    Good call on the techs rebounding, I have said it before, people love techs even though a lot got their butts handed to them back in 2001's crash.

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  127. aka, a company will look around at where to invest capital so as to secure the best possible ROI - thus, the biggest silver miner buying back its shares here means that they believe that the return that can be made from that activity beats returns from other investment (presumably mining) alternatives - it's taken as a big vote of confidence in the stock at its current price, just like higher dividends.

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  128. Gary, if you said that in your report on the weekend or friday, post it and I'll sign up immediately. Two bones is really nothing in the game I play. So, very kewl if you said that.

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  129. BOW list is a who's who of precious metal miners.

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  130. For now, the multitude of intra-day buying tails on say, a 120 minute chart of GDX are indicative of very strong responsive buying commitment - very aggressive stuff in market profile parlance. Behaviour after the 64s breakout will be the key.

    The problem of owning large cap miners was highlighted today by AUQ for NXG - there will be more of these with the big acquirors punished. An alternative for the pure junior golds (without the many silvers in GDXJ) is Canadian ZJG.TO.

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  131. Silverhound,

    Nice charts. I'm going to put a to of thought into them. I had been thinking and saying gold was going much higher for some time now. It was hard to believe gold was going to D wave from such underpriced levels. If one's final target is $10k+ rather than say $5k, we have a lot of gains to make in a short time.

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  132. I had never heard of Aurico. It turns out that it's a renaming of good old Gammon Gold. Hmmm.... I need time to analyze the prospects of Aurico and the joint franchise.

    Also, I need to lighten my miner portfolio a bit so this was a good opportunity. I was hoping to get a bid at 4.70 pre-market. The TDAmeritrade chart on my Iphone shows 4.95 pre-market but otherwise I see a high of 4.62 pre-market.

    If I were underweight miners then I wouldn't be as keen to sell.

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  133. Poly

    "The general theme should be, don't get greedy, don't get married to a position and have an exit plan"

    Thats just trading101 ;-)

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  134. Slum,
    I said the miners were acting well and gold looks to have put in a daily cycle low. So I want to buy miners.

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  135. Frank,

    Thank you. I did notice today's buy recommendation from The Street for AUQ, for what it's worth. Their analysis of AUQ is impressive.

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  136. QQQ/SPY/DIA all are doing good but the Money Flow has me concerned. Charts are similar for all three.
    Not to mention the gap up..

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  137. Anyone have ideas about SVM as a trade at such a low?

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  138. Blindweb

    I know the charts are a bullish view but just remember that trendlines are also made to be broken. Keep an eye on the big picture and caution as always.

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  139. NL test of the H&S Bottom on the 1 hr chart held. Buyers coming in at 1780.

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  140. $4.50 was an old price target for NXG based on late 2010 gold prices.

    I might keep half of the NXG.

    Note that NGD did will with similar mergers to build an intermediate sized miner. Gammon/ Aurico acquired another company in the spring.

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  141. IMO, choppy waters, collecting capitulations in GC. The recent longs need to let go. The market is at Friday's close. So, in truth, no price movement save the up down of the night session.

    Tough to see that, but we're at closing high on Friday.

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  142. Shalom,

    You continue to say that you are 'buying some miners here' over and over. Like others I now have no clear idea of what your expectation is and how in the world you keep continuously buying unless: 1) you are buying $100 chunks at a time or 2) you have a massive incoming flow of money from another source.

    May I make a suggestion to help others that you *qualify* this buying in some way which we can understand the amount or how much "doneness" you have reached.

    In other words if your goal is to be at "100%" miners, then can you consider saying "Bought some more miners. Now at 64% position".

    I know it would help me get a grasp on what you are doing and how to judge the repeated buyings. I'm sure there are quite a few who read about your miner buying weeks ago and went 100% within days only to see you keep 'buying more' weeks and weeks later.

    Just a thought.

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  143. The trouble I have with miner's strength suggesting a run at 2k for gold is that miner's suggested lower gold for eight months, yet gold gained 50%. I think gold will continue to correct from here. Not sure about miners, but I suspect they resist but not entirely. Miners have incredible value right now and even if gold corrects $200 more from here, many are in a very strong position and the market is starting to realize that.

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  144. >Either way, the gold market is performing excellent as a market right now: both bears and bulls are confused!

    The exact purpose of the gold rally last week was to go up to a point whereby anybody who sold (like me) now felt stupid and thought they should have held (or bought back).

    If it did NOT rally up to a level like that, then it wouldn't have gone far enough.

    It did. And anybody out or who didn't buy that low felt stupid. Mission accomplished. That's how markets work.

    We are now dropping as I expected and it should accellerate and go lower shortly. I think the peak is in as I mentioned before. My target 1600.

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  145. possible gold downside
    1750
    1654
    1570

    we ran into 1836 and had big participation there for shorts.

    was thinking about some beaten down miners today but am going to stay away.

    I picked up IPSU as a trade. Check out that gap down.

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