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Monday, August 29, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

58 comments:

  1. I'm in. Not using any leverage this time....

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  3. If the runaway move was going to collapse it would have continued down. Gold didn't do that, so I don't think we have to worry too much about significant further downside.

    I have a pretty good idea of what I think is unfolding in the precious metals market. I'll elaborate in tonight's report.

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  5. SPY target for me remains the 123 level or the 1597 day SMA.

    from there would have to see the dollar (remember that thing?) move lower to keep me playing around in either stocks or gold. and not only has the dollar been haaaaanging around in the same spot through all this it is being noticably accumulated since the market fell off. matter of time.

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  6. Again, from the outlier, we're forming a "W" to return to this morning's high, after we close the NY Pit and maybe until NYSE close.

    Then just eyeballing it, it's upshegoes.

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  7. There are a lotta guys overseas who are long who need to be scourged before it goes back up. This price range should cause capitulations there, too. Then the slate will be clean. Poly thought this morning it would take some days to get this done.

    TZ, we're listening to y'a. You're a lone voice, but you're smart as hell; so we're ears.

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  8. Gary,

    There is plenty of historical precedent for gold to have sold off and then rallied like it did, before continuing lower as I argue this week.

    We will know shortly, but saying it should have 'continued down' instead of bounced for a day or two and THEN continued down is not evident in past peaks.

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  9. Alex,

    Are you still in AUQ? If so, would you consider adding on this selloff?

    THx, your input is much appreciated... M

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  10. I want to clarify that I'm not saying we will go lower than last week on THIS week, but I think we will at least go TOWARDS the low this week and eventually break lower within the next few weeks.

    Also, I'm not sitting here super confident that we aren't going higher. I just dont think we are, but I'm not buying puts or shorting or whatever. And I'm definitely open to being wrong.

    My comments are just my working view of things at this time. Buyer beware for those who want to trade off them.

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  14. Gold up? Gold down? What about the 3rd possibility... months of annoying sideways chop.

    I'm positioned for up. I'm protected for down. I don't care which way. I just want it to rock and roll either direction. But I admit I am a little concerned about sideways because that will hurt my hedge (not to mention drive me nuts).

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  15. started positon in doggie---UNG

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  16. sorry 4 dbl post---not sure what happened---pobably doogie messed it up

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  17. >Gold up? Gold down? What about the 3rd possibility... months of annoying sideways chop.

    HIGHLY unlikely in the current environment.

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  18. Not liking GDX`s action today...

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  19. Well I don't know about months, but I think we are in for some sideways consolidation in gold to work off these stretched conditions.

    Like I said, I will explain in tonight's report.

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  20. Actually GDX is doing exactly what it needs to be doing.

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  21. ohhh doctor, gold about to get its clock cleaned

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  22. Gary, I`m looking at the miners action as well as gold and silver, they are not instilling too much confidence in me but these buggers are not my forte, I will take your word for it.

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  23. Pretty unlikely I think. If it was the miners would not be holding up as well as they are.

    I think we saw the lows on Thursday..

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  24. Gary: If we're looking to add to miners in the future, should we be keying off the price action in the market or gold? Thx

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  25. Today again SIL is outperforming/diverging from GDX and GDXJ.

    Does anybody have any theory why ?

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  26. wolf33 --

    I am holding UNG for more than a year and still loosing money with it.

    Fund is losing it's value due to contango being compared to physical gas.

    There is an excess of natgas in the USA at the moment and it's un-correlated with the oil.

    I am wondering why it is not widely used for cars, just like in Europe.

    Well, natgas prohibition is politically motivated decision, I guess.

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  27. dp--well aware of erosion. this is a short term swing for me. actually made$ on most but some losses as well. overall have made $. one way or other i likely will be out within a week. win or lose.

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  29. ....and off we go to make new lows into the close

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  31. Wolf33 --

    Are you expecting any long-term upside for UNG, or it's better take losses and eject?

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  32. i ran from anything with gold in it this morning. internals not so strong - miners were. but you need at least a short term bull trend to make $. qqq-s doing well.

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  33. Gary, I’m starting to like the call on miners more and more. Gold is bleeding profusely, silver is to a lesser extent and yet GDX is still holding strong, minimum panic selling, small loss and even GDXJ has been positive for the most part. When gold finishes consolidating, Euro and USA mess resurfaces miners should explode. We are approaching that season that favors miners.

    - ghost

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  34. Still holding 4x leveraged first position of the model portfolio.

    Have to admit that I wouldn't be taking it on my own.

    GARY ROCKS!

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  35. dp---iyes but when---on a long term basis there is a better play in canada---forget the symbol.

    if gas for trucks-cars etc clne might be better---but even there -no trend---like a yo yo---at least swings a little bigger. i do not own clne at this time.

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  38. DP said...
    Still holding 4x leveraged first position of the model portfolio.

    Have to admit that I wouldn't be taking it on my own.

    GARY ROCKS!

    i agree---even Gary thinks we go to hell in a handbasket.---this was an undelievable call on his part.

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  39. Wolf33 --

    Frankly, I took NG position expecting fundamentally the new administration will take advantage of new cleaner burning domestic fuel.

    Never happened, and that's irrational, just like preventing the recession to develop it's own ways and bailing out people responsible for the crisis..

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  40. dp---why i watch clne. i have 2 penny gain in ung. if get 10 pennies likely gone.

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  41. Market goes from oversold to overbought in two days. Uggh..

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  42. Action/reaction.

    Extreme moves begat extreme moves.

    We should see one very convincing bear market rally over the next month or month and a half.

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  43. I see quite a few hundred dollar rolls out there, VMW, DECK, MCD just to name a few...and an AAPL $400 roll...

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  44. Hi

    How many trades are open in same time, in average?
    Trade stocks or Options, or others?

    What use to trade, Techinical, Fundamental, mechecanical trade?

    Thanks
    Manuel

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  45. manuel,
    Is interested in references to decide whether he wants to subscribe to the premium newsletter.

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  46. Manuel,

    Sign up. Now is a great time. You can catch a great trade and prep for an even bigger one soon. Gary will steer you straight... I've been subscribed since April and it's been totally worth it. Plus, you'll learn a ton from some great posters here!

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  47. Also really interesting characters like Beanie will drop by to entertain us!

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  48. Yes we should see Beanie make an appearance before too long.

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  49. Manuel,

    "How many trades are open in same time, in average?"
    - I'd say 3.
    - ETFs. Rarely options. Sometimes a big silver miner.
    - Trades mostly based on cycles, sentiment, on top of fundamentals.

    But I think you are asking wrong questions. You should ask:
    Will I make money ?
    answer: very very probable, as long you don't hesitate or over leverage.

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  50. Manuel,

    Recommendations are usually in percentages of your portfolio that you are willing to risk. For instance, he may set the model portfolio to allocate 20% of funds to a particular ETF. Positions range from none, if there isn't a recommendation, to as much as four (during the silver run up earlier this year).

    Gary recommends ETFs or stocks, but some followers are more aggressive and use options.

    Gary's recommendations are based on cycles and provide fairly low risk entry points. He's the best I've seen at identifying bottoms, when to be aggressive or a bit tentative. Currently, he has 2 positions with about a combined 50% allocation.

    If you follow his model portfolio, you will profit many times more than the cost of subscribing.

    Good luck!

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  51. MICHAEL

    So sorry man, I was where the hurricane hit in New England-I took my tablet to Starbucks for wifi to trade, but was unable to post here.

    As a matter of co-incidence ( and DG could verify since I mentioned it in a note) I had been looking at NXG Last wk. The chart looked ready to pop- on a 3 yr wkly I noticed it popping on Volume and pulled back to $3, so I bought a LOT.

    After this mornings deal was announced pre mkt, I decided to basically sell both around the open-losing $1/ share on AUQ and making $1.20 on NXG. Since I had double the # shares of NXG...I just decided to cash out both & take the profits and just see what happens.

    I was in a few acquisitions in the past (BGO, FRG, KGC,ETC)and they tend to stop moving for a while,so I cash out immediately .

    IF I was looking at AUQ now...I see the heavy volume sell off and think it will take time to repair itself. It has support at $11, but I cant say it'll hold...If I owned here ,I might wait to sell the bounce,or just hold until it stabilizes? It could bounce to retest the 50sma?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/p5koMuVX

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  52. Wolf33... we are looking for you and hoping all is well. Please check in with your SMT friends.

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