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Friday, August 19, 2011

POSSIBLE PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A possible portfolio change has been posted to the website.

66 comments:

  1. I sold another 20% of my PHYS, bringing my position to 50% for now.

    Did not do any buying or selling of miners, and don't anticipate any moves. They gapped up too much to add, and I have no reason to sell so will be patient and wait for windows to add.

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  2. Heavy volume coming into DZZ

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  3. I've got offers out to sell 20% more of my PHYS that are getting nibbled on. When finished I'll have just 30% of original which I will hold. No more selling for me.

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  4. down gap in SPY was definitely not sold into either. OPEX though so things are going to be a little wonky today.

    115.38 is going to be a tough nut to crack.

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  5. Hack,

    Already got burnt with that high volume trade on DZZ couple weeks ago. Historically though it's been a successful indicator to use.

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  6. based on chart patterns silver projects to 46-50---jmo and pattern may not work.

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  7. Dan: Not touching shorts today. Bought DECK. Maybe some VZ as well...Money coming out of GLD. Some sort of a kicking the can down the road announcement over the weekend, shorts are covering...

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  8. or hey maybe it just blows right through it. a close into yesterday's gap might ice this thing.

    IF this LOD holds i've got to hand it to the market makers. genius psych out.

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  9. I already bought some Sept puts on GLD before reading the post. I am feeling much better now.

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  10. DECK chart looks like fall off the deck

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  11. I have no idea why people continue to try and short gold. How many times must one lose money before they finally catch on?

    There is only one condition where I would even consider buying puts on gold and we aren't even close yet.

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  12. Does anybody see a bottom being put in here in the indices?

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  13. I wouldn't read too much into today's action what with options expiration.

    We almost always see a large BoW day prior to a major bottom. If we can get one of those then I would be more get interested in the market again.

    The rally when it comes should last 1-3 months so it's not necessary to catch the exact bottom.

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  14. Gary said...
    I have no idea why people continue to try and short gold. How many times must one lose money before they finally catch on?


    i have seen these warnings mucho time. you would be better off going to a casino.

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  15. I fully believe that the reason most subscribers lose money with the SMT newsletter is because they try to short gold and silver when I expect a pullback into a daily or intermediate cycle bottom.

    Then they get pissed because they lost money even though they are the ones violating rule #1.

    Never, never, never, never, never, short a bull market.

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  16. Thanks Gary. I was a nickel short of unloading my last QQQ trade the other day, and I was wondering whether to hold or get out on today's positive moves. I will put a trailing stop in and avoid taking losses. Thanks again for that trade. This is a small % of my total trade so it's fine. Good call!

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  17. Gary

    If and when the markets crash, will we have a "V" shape recovery or a "L" shape?


    James

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  18. Gary, you can lead a horse to water but you cant make them drink it. There are always a certain % of people who you cannot help. Indeed, some people are so dumb they hit back at you when you are in fact helping them.

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  19. trin only at 1----bought qid on the last rally.

    already said but thinking silver beats gold for awhile. looking for 46 to 50. not advice jmo

    miners might fool bears this time.

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  20. Gary,

    Don't let the idiots get to you.

    I'm constantly amazed at the stupidity of people.

    Just walk through any of the Wal-Marts near you on any given day and look around.

    This country is in trouble.

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  21. In the context of this most recent push higher by gold, what is the price level at which it is considered to have gone parabolic?

    Can a parabolic move be squeezed in right here between 1800 and 2000 if done in a quick manner? Does it need to move north of 2k?

    I'm prompted to ask this in light of observed comments & hindsight just before and following the May silver slaughter. As I recall there was limited to moderate commentary of the parabola until it broke. Then it was all about the broken parabola for weeks.

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  22. a whopping 175M SoS on gold...never seen such a big number of GLD EVER

    WOW...I want no piece of this action...

    goood luck to all...stay safe and remember that there are more important things in life :)

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  23. To put things into perspective, only an 8% move is needed for gold to hit $2000.

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  24. On April 29th, Silver only needed 3% to reach 50...

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  25. I love the action of silver---again have a 46 to 50 target. and yes i could be wrong but headed in right direction.

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  26. from Sinclair

    My Dear Friends,

    Gold’s move to a new high today above $1764 has not happened for technical reasons. There are fundamental problems in the entire Western World Finance that lack solution.

    Gold is heading exponentially beyond any expectations of the short of gold share hedge funds.

    Weakness in gold shares is manic at this point, and the shorts will not see the top in gold they expected now or for years to come.

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  27. can anyone tell me the political situation in Tanzania?

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  28. out of the last 34 days (or approx. when gary gave the buy call) only 8 of those days were red, the other 26 were green or very green... is this normal for gold?

    Looking back over the last year (from finviz) this upward mov't doesn't look "normal".

    Any other instances similar to this in the last decade or two?

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  29. I am hedging out again...Catching 50% of any major up move, with zero downside risk is way better than being at risk in order to catch the tail of this thing. I need to be happy when my puts and spreads blow up...I won't be going through the week-end uncovered. Just looking at Gary's cycle count is scary enough.

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  30. 1.6M SPY purchase at 114.55

    i'm going to try scaling in here again with a stop at the lows, or unless i see the equivalent sell order.

    that wick at 115.88 would probably be a very fruitful stop run.

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  31. It occurs to me that round number targets such as $50 and $2000 are such obvious targets that it becomes dangerous to try to hold out for them. The moment prices start to approach them and then a sign of weakness occurs, most probably say "well good enough, I'm selling" which can then cascade into a epic collapse such as what occured in Silver.

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  32. a silver close over 42.30 would be great. Above long bar on 8-4

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  33. Stat,
    Yes it appears that the topping pattern has changed from one of moving slightly above a big round number to taking profits prior to that number being hit and usually in the overnight market.

    I would definitely not hold out for $2000.

    Sinclair will continue to say this indefinitely. Then when gold corrects he will blame it on the evil banking cartel.

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  34. A "Death Cross" is very near now on the Dow... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p42841054119

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  35. if you look at slv and sivr horizotal volume, there is not as much supply as one would think.

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  36. I would warn folks not to make the mistake of thinking that fundamentals will prevent a correction.

    Corrections are regression to the mean profit-taking events. They have nothing to do with fundamentals.

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  37. spy i see very little fear---not right. also option activity did not look good coming into today.
    anything is always possible.

    i see silver shot up a little more!

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  38. re: SOS/BOW

    example: GLD currently #2 on SOS list

    Would someone please clarify in very simple terms how one knows which side of the trade the smart people are on.

    With sincere thanks in advance and with kind regards,

    Rose

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  39. rose,

    There's no such thing as the "smart money" crowd. It's not like there's some elite club who always gets every call right.

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  40. As I am basically fully invested, I will out of prudence do some selling and hedging the weekend.

    I stll think long cycle in control but will still hedge some not all.

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  41. In this video, the track inspector is Smart Money; the trains are Dumb Money. It's just a matter of not getting run over by the idiots, methinks:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDAKC0Nl6kg

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  42. Wolf asked.."can anyone tell me the political situation in Tanzania?"

    How about consulting wikipedia?

    When the gold bubble occurs, everything will rise rapidly.

    There is a break away gap and two exhaustion gaps on a daily basis NY Pit in gold. It's within a few trading days max from rolling over to close the gaps. If not, it's to the moon Alice.

    He will win when the shoe shine boy wants in.

    We saw that yesterday. They're beyond ignorant and frightened. The MSM shocks them like live wires on dying corpses. They're in and getting in.

    It's just a matter of time when greed and fear will make gold the latest tulip bulb or more accurately, the next glimmering gold of the East, and the miners and royalty holders will be all be the next East India Company, the next radio tube company, the next internet co-lo hosting company.

    Those all ended the way this will end.

    But first, it's gonna happen.
    At 1000, I started the phrase, "The Great Doubling", and we're about to see that, the magic magnet called 2000.

    At 1850-2100, gold will have merely inflation adjusted against its prior 850 1980 high. So, effectively, as of now, gold has gone nowhere for 31 years.

    But one must measure the losses, the opportunity cost, the interest value, and that means gold should be valued at 3600, or higher.

    After 2000, we will see the next number of 3600 which let's just call, "Even Steven".

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  43. If I'm not mistaken, SLV is at a new post-parabola high. Getting stronger, too.

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  44. SB, if this is not a post parabola, but instead a plateau, then the next step up will be closer to the inflation adjusted high of $130-$150 which is now what gold has accomplished, it now being at the inflation adjusted high of $850 from 1980.

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  45. anyone holding long over the weekend?

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  46. slumdog, are you long gold right now?

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  47. Looks like everyone is selling going to the weekend, it was almost normal an hour ago.

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  48. weekend---if i hedge only part. I may do none.

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  49. sold all my gold at 1550 area, save a few coins.

    holding all my silver, ugh. Owning phys is a hassle as it's not solely in bars.

    will hold it though hunger for the working capital.

    I am flat the market, having lost about $1500 this week trying to short it. I'll short at the top of this gold trade if I can see it clearly.

    The confusion of $1893 being bantered about takes away from my observation that I've posted. I keep waiting for it all, and meanwhile, I'm getting nothing.

    The stretch in the market will lead to exhaustion. It does in every market. The question is "when". When there's little public and trader resistance to the probability of the up direction, that's the point to short it. I thought it was yesterday, shorted gold, but I was too slow to take a profit in the morning drop; so when it cost me a few points, I stepped out.

    The drop to these gap levels is very high probability.

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  50. Amazing, $200 SOS for GLD, $400 BOW for SPY. Certainly supports the thesis of an unwinding fear trade.

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  51. Blame game is expanding rapidly.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-analyst-conflicts-corruption-and-greed-2011-8

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  52. and more!

    http://www.businessinsider.com/sec-attorney-claims-the-agency-destroyed-thousands-of-investigations-involving-banks-hedge-funds-2011-8

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  53. Could we see August 2010 lows, SPX 1065? 80% cash into the weekend...

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  54. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/madoff-whistleblower-big-banks-ripping-off-pension-funds-152836936.html?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

    read listen

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  55. long from SPY 113.66 but bailing if it can't rally back above 113 at the end.

    but actually i recommend everyone just fade me on this one, week has been fraught with noob mistakes.

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  56. mostly holding over weekend---see last 3 posts

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  57. Miners have been bleeding off the gains since this morning. I didn't get my chance to add since we gapped up, but with more weakness looking probable, I might get the opportunity I was looking for today on Monday.

    Sticking with what I have, 30% left of PHYS and all my miners.

    As a side note, I expect a margin increase in gold (and maybe silver not long after), however I don't expect the response to be the same as when silver got smashed a few months ago.

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  58. "ver said...
    Amazing, $200 SOS for GLD, $400 BOW for SPY. "

    $400 is a lot??
    what is the average?

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