We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

THE 75 WEEK CEILING

The 75 week moving average has been a very clear dividing line between bull and bear markets for the last couple of decades.



The S&P is on the verge of running in to that roadblock soon.


It's possible that the S&P could penetrate this level briefly, and possibly even rally back to the 200 day moving average (about 1250) before the bear market resumes. That being said I doubt the market will be able to penetrate this major resistance level on the first try, and it may even end up capping this bear market rally.

We already have three warning signs that popped up today that should make bulls wary. More in tonight's report...

238 comments:

  1. St. D,
    I'd like to see those charts if you don't mind. I have a few here that are super bullish for miners, gold and silver that I can share. I'm looking for a legit bear view. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. I use the 'Slow Stochastics' set to 5,3 on StockCharts to help judge whether a market is overbought or oversold. This is not the default setting but a setting that is very close to what that old, old site Clearstation uses. Course Stochastics alone is not much use. It's just one of many things to look for. In this situation I see the indicator cresting and rolling over, at the same time that the MACD Histogram has finally made a baby attempt at flipping into positive territory after a severe period below zero. I seriously doubt the very first attempt to stay above the zero line will hold. Once again I refer to late August 2008. Same basic setup. Maybe not the best time to short silver, but maybe not the very best time to go long either. Just IMHO. I am certainly no TA expert so buyer beware.

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. These goofy Yahoo Finance videos are often just entertainment, but this one was actually not bad...

    "Sell Everything Except the U.S. Dollar: Technical Strategist"

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/sell-everything-except-u-dollar-technical-strategist-174411561.html#more-7286

    ReplyDelete
  5. Danno,

    are you selling this a.m.? I'm going to short a protion of my position against my long. I'm going to trade them as they rise and fall.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The 75 week MA is close enough to the 20 month ema that I use. I use the 20 and 50 ema on all time frames and it's amazing how many others do -may as well look at the same thing as the big institutions!!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Bamster,
    I am shorting against my long position too. I still have a core long position in silver. I'm tempted to sell it but I probably won't. That would be going 100% short and I don't think it's a good idea to be 100% long or 100% short in uncertain conditions.

    ReplyDelete
  8. grimweasel,
    The 20 MA is also the Bollinger Band midline. It can be kind of a big deal sometimes.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Danno

    Don't say I didn't warn you yesterday about ZSL. Could be a whole different ball game today.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I expected one more significant up day in silver before the turn (if the turn comes). A rise in price today would not surprise me. I got into my 'short' position early on purpose. I did not want to miss the 1st (potential) surge down because I know I would not have gone short after that. It would have been too late.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Gold could hit a brick wall around 1690-1695. That's the trend line (down trend line) and also the 20MA. But who knows. I guess we'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I think all eyes should be on the dollar here, if we trend lower for a few more days it will start to make the dollar left translated. I believe the peak came on Day 11, Today will be day 19.

    Please correct me if I'm wrong here

    ReplyDelete
  13. Indecision candles were all over the market today. Worldwide! Why does an indecision candle always have to be bearish. $SPX candle looks like the bulls won. Could it be that traders were hesitant to jump into any positions before Slovakia's vote. I think so. I follow many traders on Twitter and they were slow with "no action just waiting" kind of day. I think the market has made its decision this AM. Dollar has put in a reversal (H&S Top) and we could be on day 10 in an extremely left translated cycle. EUR/USD put in an H&S bottom. Gold and silver are breaking out. HUI hit support the other day and rocketed up. Fed talk could be the make or break. I'll be watching closely today. GL

    Few Bullish charts-HUI
    http://www.screencast.com/t/8EhUG6i11ri
    SLV Daily
    http://www.screencast.com/t/knsz9JckSaO
    SLV Weekly
    http://www.screencast.com/t/osLaF98pl5

    ReplyDelete
  14. I'm staying long my miners and looking to add to SSO short over the next day or two, including some this morning, perhaps around 10 am.

    ReplyDelete
  15. SB,
    Using SSO as a short, or shorting SSO?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Forgot the $GOLD chart

    http://www.screencast.com/t/HJazJaTQmm

    ReplyDelete
  17. Danno,

    Shorting SSO. Started with small position at the close yesterday and will look to add some today and maybe more over the rest of the week.

    This trade is not a long term play like the miners, and I expect to hold for only 1-2 weeks, give or take a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  18. SB, just curious if your strategy has changed a bit now with your SSO short. You are starting to hedge your miner longs... The reason I ask, is because I have been long miners and am using SPY puts and UUP calls to hedge during the latest puke.... on that note, do you not think that this rally could run into Nov or even early Dec?

    ReplyDelete
  19. SB

    Miners looking good this am. Especially GPL. Might be in the 3's again.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Gold is about to break back out of the c-wave channel and regain the 75sma and 20sma. Should be a smooth push to the 50sma above at 1755. Long gold futures.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Its do or die time for gold right here.

    ReplyDelete
  22. All investors should be aware of the way that all risk assets are closely correlated. And the barometer of risk sentiment is the EUR/USD cross (proxy for the Dollar index). Up to last week, most large investors were short, in expectation of recession & imminent EURO breakup. Those expectations have receded, so there is a lot of short covering going on.

    EUR/USD is looking very comfortable above 1.37. I doubt we will see a turnaround in sentiment until that exchange rate approaches 1.39 or so. (probably a couple of days). Until then, markets generally and commodities will likely continue to rally. Shorts beware!!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Michael,

    I don't nearly as much conviction on the SSO short so it's not necessarily to hedge my long miners, but I suppose you could look at it that way.

    Two different trades to me, as my expected hold times are very different. It's even possible I don't add to my token SSO short, but it is my intention to short into spikes for the near future. Position size and expected volatility will be nothing close to my long term miner trade.

    As far as Nov-Dec for miners, I have no idea and remain unconcerned. If they puke out I'll be a buyer, if they rally I'll continue to hold. I'm looking way past that time frame.

    ReplyDelete
  24. If I get spikes in the S&P to add to short SSO, my total risk to accounts will not exceed 1%.

    ReplyDelete
  25. SB, thanks for your input.. I am doing the same... adding to shorts into spikes and adding to my basket of miners during sell-offs... enjoy following your posts.. thanks for sharing your wisdom... all the best..

    ReplyDelete
  26. SB,
    What are the advantages of shorting SSO over buying SDS or put options of S&P? Are shorts more profitable? Less risky? This is not criticism, I'm just curious about what you think about the pros/cons of differing strategies.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  27. wav ridah,

    /gc 60 min http://i54.tinypic.com/2nvxlzq.png

    the subgraph is effective volume which is essentially the sum of the volume on green bars minus the sum on red, normalized to the high/low/closes. it's easily googlable.

    the *problem* is, as i am finding this morning, that short-term price can do what it wants.

    but long term an asset that is not being bought cannot rise. and right now at 1683.1 there is less effective money in gold than there was at the crash low at 1535.

    that said ready to eat my crow this morning. if gold can clear 1695 (where my buy stop now is) i would guess we're headed to 1726. if it keeps going up from there i concede defeat entirely!

    SPY looking like a good short soon enough but i'm not sure this next little dip (starting today?) will be it. really want to see it hit that 200 day first!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Great Call Gary and Great profits!

    ReplyDelete
  29. WW,
    what is the minimum time frame for gold to hold above the SMA's for you to consider them regained? So to speak... It kinda looks like it's bumping its head on them here...

    Thanks.
    /D

    ReplyDelete
  30. Russell,

    I've seen the obvious play in these leveraged etfs not work out to many times, even thought the trader picked the right direction. If the long and short leveraged etfs both deflate, when the SDS should go up, I'd just as soon have that wind at my back as well.

    Short term speculators are more inclined to sell their long (SSO), while bearish bets might or might not be strong enough to push up SDS. In quiet markets either vehicle should work (SSO short, or SDS long), but when dislocations occur, I'd rather be short the leveraged etfs.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Not to mention they're only derivatives, and if the underwriting firm goes belly up it could be a huge lotto ticket. :)

    Not betting on that, but it's an added benefit.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Haggerty,
    I think the dollar topped on day 13, leaving it some room left to find its bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  33. WW,
    also, looking at a daily chart, is this what you mean by swooping 10 DMA? I'm trying to picture it, and it sure looks like it's swooping now, on the way up again.

    So, would I be right to interpret WW-swoopism as follows: If gold holds above 10DMA it's bullish, if it doesn't hold we're probably looking at a new low?

    Thankful for your input.

    Dubbelito

    ReplyDelete
  34. got a SPY system buy this morning target 121.7 stop 119.8

    i expect this to fail. thus 119.8 is my short term reversal number, which should trigger on a gap fill.

    gold seems to have it backwards today. someone remind it that it should sell off overnight and ramp on the open, not the other way around.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Sold right after open. Booked profits this morning. Thank you Gary!

    ReplyDelete
  36. Gold is having an extremely hard time regaining the 75sma on a daily. Got rejected a few times already over the last few days.

    ReplyDelete
  37. following upro down yesterday worked--out now.

    ReplyDelete
  38. i would be leary of shorting broads. JMO

    ReplyDelete
  39. Adding to SPXU at 75sma on a weekly.

    ReplyDelete
  40. SB,
    Thanks, and you get the decay of time and possibly volatility favoring your side as well. I've had options that did as you suggested. They lost value despite the underlying move was in my direction. They were not able to move faster than the decay.
    Appreciate your response.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Next level looking to add to SPXU 75sma on a daily at SPX 1220

    ReplyDelete
  42. DUBB,

    You got it. A break above the 75sma daily for gold is bullish and a break below the 10sma is bearish.

    ReplyDelete
  43. I'm thinking this market is just going higher; probably means it is time for it to turn.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Dubb,

    This swoop should push gold back above the 75sma, if gold can't regain the 75sma the swoop will fail and gold will lose the 10sma and it is almost certain gold will see new lows.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Poly,

    Are you still planning to short S&P. If yes, at what level.

    ReplyDelete
  46. when SPY opened i saw a market buy for like 1.3+ million shares. at the time i thought "what sort of knucklehead would do that?!"

    seemingly they're right on thus far.. this rally in stocks has been one for the books. the people want, nay, NEED stocks! at any price, just hand em over, NOW!

    still waiting for 119.8.. will get short if that taps before 121.7!

    ReplyDelete
  47. The market tagged the 75 week moving average off a new low within 2 weeks...In 2008 it took 10weeks...we may see a possible end to this bear market rally sooner then later and a topped out left translated daily cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  49. WW,

    So for those of us struggling with learning all the terminology, what does your last post mean? Are we going higher or lower?

    Thank you for the education.

    Elaine

    ReplyDelete
  50. Elaine,

    Gary laid out in last night's report basically what I just said.

    ReplyDelete
  51. WW, looks like your call that money would be moving from gold to equities was prophetic... good call...yes, very fast rally up to 75sma... makes you wonder if it can hold this?

    ReplyDelete
  52. another thing to consider it that the Russell 2000 is lagging the rally and is still 4.5% below it's 75sma

    ReplyDelete
  53. If silver is going to stall this is right about where it would happen IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Added a bit to my SSO short a moment ago, although I'm not too excited about the trade.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Michael,

    I wouldn't be suprised to see this market give everything back by days end.

    ReplyDelete
  56. SPY 2 attempts at 121.50$ were turned back. Don't know what it means but it was rocketing before it hit that roadblock.

    WW, you may be right about giving it all back.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Miyagi,

    Thats the 75 week moving average on SPX resistance.

    ReplyDelete
  58. nearly back to zero in that gold short again. getting pretty tired of the whipsaw though.

    rooting against stocks is getting pretty fun in the interim. i gotta assume we're running low on buyers by now. maybe? sheesh.

    ReplyDelete
  59. also fun fact: 75 weeks = 375 days which is pretty close to the 377 day which is a fib number.

    i don't know, makes more sense to me when i frame it that way. otherwise i'm just like "where on earth did 75 come from?"

    ReplyDelete
  60. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  61. WW,
    So the question remains, will it succeed on the third attempt? If not, it may fall a ways.

    ReplyDelete
  62. St D,

    Yup, the 75 day moving avergae is actually right there with a Fib level.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Miyagi,

    It may not fail the third time because the 75sma on a daily SPX at 1220ish has not been tagged yet.

    ReplyDelete
  64. one has to keep in mind GANN's comparison with 2008 and his target of 1227 for this rally which would be just above the 200dma... however, it is likely we get a pullback and then a move higher..

    ReplyDelete
  65. Michael,

    1227 is right above the 75 day moving average.

    ReplyDelete
  66. I expect we will see a pullback to to atleast the 50sma if not the 20before pushing higher.

    ReplyDelete
  67. There's 2 recent gap ups now, this morning and Monday morning.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Miyagi,

    A pullback to the 20 or even the 50sma in SPX will fill both gaps.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Took a very small lottery play on some puts on the SPY

    ReplyDelete
  70. Europe got plan to fix bank problems....

    ReplyDelete
  71. well there's SPY 121.7. i don't know why i bothered coming up with this system if i'm not going to take the trades!

    anyway bull is intact for now.. lord knows it should be tanking but not touching the short side. just stupid relentless.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Does the plan involve more digital fiat? :)

    ReplyDelete
  73. Once the dollar puts in its cycle low then stocks will turn, but not until. The more stretched they become in the meantime the harder they will snap back once the turn occurs.

    ReplyDelete
  74. There are several gaps lower that need to fill once that correction begins.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Greece can't be saved. You can't cure an unserviceable debt problem with more debt. You can throw more money down a rat hole and temporarily put a Band-Aid on the problem, but that won't cure anything.

    All Germany is doing is weakening itself by continuing to bail out the defaulting PIIGS.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Gary,
    You're still thinking SPX in the sub 1000 range or is it in tonight's report..

    ReplyDelete
  77. By the next 4 year cycle low certainly below 1000. Probably below 666.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Whoa, S&P 666! Back to early 2009 when the 401K becomes 101K. Except this time I will be in cash.

    ReplyDelete
  79. I am going to predict another 100 bless rating on gold for Fridays COT. Silver should be right up there as well.
    OI is falling in gold while the price is rising. Bankers covering their shorts. I believe this is do upcoming position limits in the Dodd - Frank legislation. In silver commercials covered lots of shorts and the small specs are non existent. You guys shorting gold and silver have guts. Not something I would try...oh yeah I am still long both Gold and Silver.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Shorting gold or silver is just asking to have your head handed to you.

    Shorting the stock market based on yesterday's SoS and considering that the stock market is bumping right up against the 75 week moving average is still a game for traders with stainless steel balls.

    If you think you're going to pick an exact top in a bear market rally you're kidding yourself. Selling into bear market rallies is only successful if you can take a position and then hold through the inevitable draw down until the bear market forces rescue your trade.

    Even in bear markets, and probably especially in bear markets, selling short is a very tough way to make money.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Gary - was this bear market even more difficult than the 2008/2009 to make money? i.e. even more whipsawing now than 2008? Or was the 2008/2009 bear market (before QE 1 and 2) behaving more like a "normal" bear market, have bear market rallies and follow the cycles more?

    ReplyDelete
  82. This has been one of the toughest markets I have ever traded.

    ReplyDelete
  83. LOL...stainless steel balls!

    Shorting gold right now is going to get them shinny nuts dull.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Gary

    That really concerns me what you said about the 4 yr cycle low due in stocks. When is that due ballpark? End of 2012ish?

    What concerns me is where will the HUI be?

    That's the million dollar question I guess, but the sell off should be nothing like the one we saw in 08 right? that was a combination of the panic and the 8 year cycle low in stocks right?

    ReplyDelete
  85. agree that selling short anything here is basically nuts, but gold has been a heck of a lot weaker on average.

    and it's still above its 200 day.

    stocks still below.

    playing the odds that that's where they're both headed. if SPY tanks this afternoon i think it should be viewed as a buying opportunity. if gold tanks, i would be a very worried long.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Gold will whipsaw ya nuts of between the 10sma and 75sma.

    ReplyDelete
  87. gold has basically already whipped my nuts clean off

    waiting for this to friggin turn so i can buy some robotic ones or something

    ReplyDelete
  88. Gary - thanks. So this bear is even more difficult than the previous one.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Does the weekly chart of TLT give the stock market bears pause?

    ReplyDelete
  90. UUP's penetration of the 200MA before a (potential) golden cross is not nearly as surprising as UUP's penetration of the 200MA *after* the golden cross of 09/05/08.

    Everyone then must have thought, "This is a failed golden cross." Oh, how wrong they were.

    ReplyDelete
  91. St. D,

    LOL...try the stainless steal ones that Gary recommends!

    ReplyDelete
  92. @Danno

    The one thing that is not similar to 2008 is that the US treasuries are already insanely overbought.

    Do you think they will become even more insanely overbought from here out?

    ReplyDelete
  93. Gary or anybody - I am still trying to understand if gold miners are more influenced by gold or by the stock market?

    Perhaps there is no clean cut answers.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Greenspansconscience,

    The 10 YR note seems insanely low at 2.24% but bond rates could drop another 50%. This could become Japan. Who knows. I've learned almost anything is possible, especially in shorter time frames. The minute you completely rule out a scenario you are left unprotected. You just never know. You can only guess at the odds. Odds say eventually rates will have to go through the roof, but that doesn't mean they can't go even lower first.

    ReplyDelete
  95. No doubt on the daily chart TLT is due for a bounce, which could send stock and PMs much lower in the short run.

    It's just I believe the weekly chart looks constructive for stocks at least in the medium term (month or two?), especially if the weekly MACD crosses negative.

    ReplyDelete
  96. That is a black candle on GLD.

    ReplyDelete
  97. I'm gonna heed Gary's advice and not add to my SSO short, at least not today unless stocks pullback, which is looking unlikely.

    ReplyDelete
  98. HEK posted few days ago----said water may be better tha gold. it has been.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Greenspansconscience,
    I rarely look at weekly charts.

    Maybe that's why I'm a smashing success? d'oh!

    ReplyDelete
  100. internals too strong on Broad market for me to try shorting.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Never like black candles, as 99% of the time you will get a lower close at some point in the future. But I put less creedance on the etf charts.

    Gld also put in a black candle on the weekly chart last week. Definitely not a bullish sign, that's for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  102. a nice plop into the close for stocks would do wonders to keep the short interest up.

    ReplyDelete
  103. black candles during last year's big C-wave rally:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&st=2010-07-26&en=2010-10-18&id=p70515527831

    ReplyDelete
  104. I think it depends on how the conditions are when the candle appears.

    TA is more like Jazz than sheet music. If it were sheet music everybody would be rich.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Nice analogy, Danno! (jazz v. sheet music . . .)

    ReplyDelete
  106. People are actually chanting outside Paulson's house.

    "He's one of those billionaire hedge-fund guys who bet on the meltdown of the mortgage [market] and won big," Vilma Nelson, a 60-year-old Bronx resident, said of Mr. Paulson. "He's the type of person we're against."

    Wow.

    ReplyDelete
  107. I still can't get over how the market moves on the chimera of salvation in Europe.

    ReplyDelete
  108. UUP is actually sitting on its 200MA while PMs are being halted under their 20's and black candles are popping up all over. This could be a a huge day you guys.

    ReplyDelete
  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Danno,

    Are you referring to the Occupy Wall Street protesters, outside Paulson's house?

    ReplyDelete
  111. Paulson has had a tough year. First he lost 50% in his biggest fund, now protesters want to burn his house down!

    ReplyDelete
  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Now if the market corrects hard being it has stretched so far so fast, will it cause a bit of panic and send investors running into gold, pushing gold above the 75sma finally, letting it run free until it wacks its head on the 50...or will the strong dollar drill gold below the 10sma and kill it.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Danno,

    I bet you're right. I think we're all going to see things we never thought we would.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Gold has shown no ability to fight a rising dollar lately, and it hasn't responded very strongly during this violent correction, so I doubt gold will all of a sudden be viewed as a safe haven trade here.

    Gold is now right translated so presumably gold will hold above $1535 at it's next cycle low which is due in the next 7-12 days.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Here come the sellers. If we stay weak today, I can then add to short SSO into any morning spike or gap higher tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Gold will follow the market as folks liquidate...we are in dangerous territory...

    ReplyDelete
  118. Couldn't help myself added a little more to short. 2% total portfolio risk.

    ReplyDelete
  119. UUP is just sitting on the 200MA like it's sitting on a wooden saw horse. Not too concerned about anything. Just hanging out.

    ReplyDelete
  120. well i hope the equity bears are enjoying their 15 minutes of fame but to paraphrase chuck bronson, "this ain't over"

    as usual we'll have to wait until 3 am to see what gold wants to do. holding short steady as she goes.

    ReplyDelete
  121. People are actually chanting outside Paulson's house...

    "He's one of those billionaire hedge-fund guys who bet on the meltdown of the mortgage [market] and won big," Vilma Nelson, a 60-year-old Bronx resident, said of Mr. Paulson. "He's the type of person we're against."


    Wow.


    Yeah. I'm not into their movement. I'll just bet no one who was disgusted when Paulson kneeled before Pelosi thought they'd see the day.



    Danno,

    just to be clear:

    There's two of them.

    John Paulson the one being protested

    &

    Hank "Bended Knee" Paulson (former GS)

    ReplyDelete
  122. Feel,

    That's right! Whoops. Oh well. I guess the image of the crooked guy sounded better.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Steady As She Goes - Shellac
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkyTK9tRgHs&feature=related

    Holding Slv steady as she goes. EXK SLW ftw.

    I had recently forgotten one of my basic premises: There will be no true deflation ever; well until the collapse after hyperinflation at least. The central bankers learned their lesson after 2008. Deflation will only come when they are forced. We're a long way from the public forcing discipline. They even have 20% or so to work with in oil prices. That's not to say the stock market won't fall even in the face of low inflation.

    ReplyDelete
  124. European banks to liquidate assets, including US stocks.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-slumps-after-european-banks-admit-they-cantwont-raise-capital-will-proceed-asset-liquida?

    ReplyDelete
  125. Danno,

    John Paulson was a classmate of mine at Harvard. He's a decent chap. He was right about mortgages and gold and dead wrong on financials and the stock market.

    The protesters walked right by George Soros' place and not a peep.

    Something fishy there. Big Time.

    ReplyDelete
  126. WOW---Someone living in Big Sky Country went to Harvard!

    ReplyDelete
  127. Well 4 years in the Army and the GI Bill helped a lot. Tuiton was only $3,300 a year back then.

    ReplyDelete
  128. tuition at MSU was $90 a quarter, i think. I was one year late for GI Bill. Went to service after college.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Hi Sandy,

    I already have one short position on since around the 1,230 level, most of those gains have been given back, but still in the black.
    I'm assessing the merit of a 2nd position at this point as the SPY cycles are rather ambiguous. I want to avoid trading with my short bias, as much as possible.

    I'm also preserving capital for gold, we're getting close I believe, but still some time left.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Thanks Poly. Your calls & conviction has been amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  131. WOW! Even perma-cheerleader James Turk saying gold/silver *may* go down!!


    >>>James Turk<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
    I am very encouraged by what gold and silver are doing here. Both metals are building up support after the big hit they took three weeks ago. I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet as we may need more backing and filling. A retest of $1,600 on gold and $30 for silver may well be in the cards.


    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/12_James_Turk_-_More_Bank_Collapses_to_Cause_Gold_%26_Silver_Spike.html

    ReplyDelete
  132. 2 for 1 Split for AGQ at the open if anybody cares.
    Never to see >$300 again...

    ReplyDelete
  133. SF Giants Fan - Never is a long time....

    ReplyDelete
  134. SF Gaints:

    Do you know what happens if you held AGQ on Monday and Sold on Tuesday or Wednesday?

    Since the record date is Monday's close, but you don't own them on 10/13, how is the split handled?

    Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  135. Alex in Montana,
    George Soros is funding these protests. He backed Obama and this is to promote the class warfare for Obama. He also paid and promoted the riots in Europe. It's all part of his master progressive movement plan. One world.

    ReplyDelete
  136. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  137. I used to like the name Bridget...ie..for a girl...not any more..be careful this clip will make you wet your pants. Silly and Scary at the same time.

    http://youtu.be/XL8vGbhpbEs

    ReplyDelete
  138. Liquid,
    Thanks for that link! Made my day... (Still chuckling here!)

    ReplyDelete
  139. The problems in Europe can be fixed, but not in a couple of months. So the odds are high there will be a few more panics in the markets before all the dust settles. What no talking head can tell you is when those panics might come. A panic could come in December, or a panic could come tomorrow. All the good news in the world today won't stop a panic tomorrow. The 64 million dollar question is... are we sure more EU related panics will come before its over?

    The answer has got to be, yes, more weeks of panic selling are bound to come. At least that is what the odds favor IMO.

    Panic is an opportunity for leaders to grab power. They will embrace and even encourage fear if the situation can be managed to their ultimate advantage.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Farm girl

    Silver would have to hit > $75ish for AGQ to hit $300 before the 2 for 1 split. So your right. it's going to be a while.

    NJ

    Don't have a clue. Just hope know one finds out the hard way.

    ReplyDelete
  141. It's getting to the point that everything is rigged. Even the WSJ is cooking the books.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/oct/12/wall-street-journal-andrew-langhoff



    How can you tell if a politician or pulbic official is lying?

    If their lips move.

    ReplyDelete
  142. In some ways the 2011 chart of SLV is heathier than 2008, but in some ways the 2011 chart is weaker.

    For example, in 2008 there were two large gaps down on 09/08 and 09/15. The 2nd gap was filled by 09/28.

    Compare that to 2011. SLV just suffered 2 gaps down, but the 2nd gap is nowhere near being filled and SLV is already showing signs of rolling over.

    Who knows what will happen. It's just interesting and makes me wonder how many other traders have noticed. I would guess, a lot.

    ReplyDelete
  143. at ease,

    You are 100% correct on that. The hypocrisy bell is ringing loud and clear.

    ReplyDelete
  144. at ease and Alex in Montana,

    I have also read that Soros is now helping fund Occupy Wall Street, however he did not seed the discontent that's coming to the surface so much as he's trying to co-opt it after the fact. It's a common tactic, to own both sides of the debate. Just look at our political system, where we all know it does not matter what side you vote for, you're getting the same either way.

    ReplyDelete
  145. spy system sell on the open, target 118.7 stop 121.2

    i'll swing on it on the gap fill

    holding gold short otherwise. ugly and looking uglier.

    ReplyDelete
  146. If we get a late morning spike in the S&P I'll add to my SSO short.

    ReplyDelete
  147. And I don't intend on covering the SSO for several days. With regard to miners, I'm just holding what I have and not adding any today. They could easily pull back a couple days after so many up days.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Gold's daily cycle appears to have topped as expected (timing) with the dollar likely finding its low too.

    I expected gold to break the $1,700 on this daily cycle to put in a convincing rally, but instead its rather bearish it has not.
    In light of how far it was beaten down, the low sentiment and how quickly the dollar moved down, we could be in for a nice fall now.

    I strongly caution silver and AGQ holders here to be very careful. I'm bracing for a $100-$150 gold fall here.

    On the positive side, we're getting closer to our ICL.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Gold failed miserably again to regain the 75sma on a daily after multiple attempts. I would not be suprised to see it lose the 10sma soon.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Poly,

    Are you at the same cycle count as Gary with gold?

    ReplyDelete
  151. I expect that if gold loses the 10sma on a daily we will see new lows.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Thanks Poly. Really apreciate your input and almost giddy at the thought of finally getting `all in` at the ICL. It seems like I always threw a wrench in my own gears just before blast off, and have only caught partial moves. This should be really Enjoyable :)

    ReplyDelete
  153. $150 drop sounds good to me. personally need to see at least a maginal new low.

    /es & /gc 1 hour http://i51.tinypic.com/16kvzbs.png

    that link is why i much prefer my shorts to be gold shorts and my longs to be SPY longs (speaking of which if we can't tag 118.7 before 121.2 that is a raging buy for me).

    probably it for me today i'm not seeing much to do here. good luck everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Rob,

    No, I have the last ICL as July 1st and on week 15.

    86,

    Me too, let's hope it's still ahead of us. :)

    I'm not certain, yet, of what to expect of the next IT cycle yet, much depends on what damage is done on the way down here. I would love to see a test of $1,500, that would have me getting very aggressive.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Poly,

    The c-wave channel upper trendline has haulted gold three times in the last couple weeks...I think it is very likely the lower trendline of that channel will support its fall...lucky you its at $1500 :)

    ReplyDelete
  156. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  157. super,
    Yes I'm always a bit concerned when a cycle runs short and it appears the oil cycle is short. That being said since oil is trading in tandem with stocks that would suggest that the stock market daily cycle is ready to roll over already.

    That I'm not convinced of yet.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Gary,

    Its still possible this daily cycle in stocks will not be left translated...and a tag of the 200 is still in the cards...right?

    ReplyDelete
  159. If this turns out not to be a left translated cycle in stocks the dollar is gonna be ripped.

    ReplyDelete
  160. to the fellow readers,

    has ayone a link where you can see the real time quotes and depth of the book of e.g. slv, gdx etc.
    Yahoo has a lag of 2 minutes and a minor insight in the book?
    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  161. Filing my nails, waiting for Gary to call the D-wave...

    ReplyDelete
  162. Slovakia just passed the ESFS bill.
    Now Southern Europe can be saved.
    I guess "risk on" will now be back.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Russell,
    The dollar is now in the timing band for a daily cycle low. Once we get a swing it should be risk off for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  164. do you have any predictions about dollar cycle low ? are we bottoming now or its just a small correction

    ReplyDelete
  165. I'm sorry Gary. Sarcasm does not always translate on a blog. I was just making fun of the ESFS hype.
    I'm expecting dollar up, stocks and gold down.

    ReplyDelete
  166. S&P holding on pretty strong here, in limbo between the 50 and 75 sma.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Miyagi,

    The 50sma will suck it back down.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Slovakia news was probably baked in. They knew what the vote would be days ago.

    ReplyDelete
  169. I would like to see a bull flag form over the next 2 days and a bounce off the 20sma, prevent this cycle from being left translated and keep this bear market rally alive until it tags the 200sma.

    ReplyDelete
  170. WW,
    Strangely, I'd like to see the opposite of that, a drop off to the 1100-1120 area, sort of to reset buying.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Miyagi,

    I wouldn't mind it being im short, but I dont think that will reset buying, we would be in a left translated cycle then and will drop like a pig in the mud.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Sharp reversal, everyone is back from their liquor lunches.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Hurling empty champagne and caviar bottles at the protestors!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  174. It's just that the dollar hasn't made a cycle low yet. I'm going to go over what I would like to see before that bottom forms in tonight's report.

    ReplyDelete
  175. I often bet both ways because there are no guarantees (well, actually because I have no idea what's going to happen and I need a handicap).

    But if I were to lean little heavier to the short side, today would be the day.

    My spidey sense tells me Friday through next week may not be kind to PMs.

    ReplyDelete
  176. Google reports after hours; setting the tone for earnings season.
    Alcoa started with a thud let's see how the techs do, I don't believe Fall is the best reporting numbers timeframe.

    ReplyDelete
  177. Just checking in on a day that doesn't require much attention, but seems to me that everybody is on one side of the boat. Nothing scientific, but everybody is eventually waiting to get long metals at lower prices, whether it's $1400, $1500, or $1600 gold.

    I'm not worried about PM demand at all, this is what bull markets are made of. I'm more concerned that were about to see some capital controls that limit our options for riding the bull.

    ReplyDelete
  178. The USD futures,/DX, has been in a tight downtrend channel for the last 7 days.

    ReplyDelete
  179. The USD futures,/DX, has been in a tight downtrend channel for the last 7 days.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Sorry about the duplicate. I hit publish and the message was still in preview mode.

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.