We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Friday, October 21, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

153 comments:

  1. SB, I have not bought any physical in well over a year.Feb 2010. I was hoping we would get a nice opportunity by now or very soon. I have confetti to exchange! I am thinking to just start buying once a week for the next month or so. It is not like I am going to trade it anytime soon

    ReplyDelete
  2. Natanarchist,

    Got it. Are you only intending to buy physical, or etfs, miners, etc?

    I'm debating whether to add back the portion of PHYS I sold in August (still have 1/3), or maybe start a goldmoney account. I can't find much info on the tax rules of goldmoney holdings.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  3. posted something in the last thread but basically:

    looking for /dx to hit its 1597 hourly SMA at 76.089

    and while it does this would like to see /gc get up to its 610 hourly SMA (which has been my bull/bear barometer through and was last penetrated mid september) currently at 1678.6

    the move in /es has not been bought either. i don't know if we're seeing the top but i do expect a multi-day correction before we move to test the 200 day.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Waiting for Gary's call to jump back into gold futures. I also have an account with my kids where we trade miners and accumulate CEF. We never sell the CEF shares. I bought exk, svm and gdxj couple weeks ago when Gary went into Gdx. It was a small buys. Still holding those. Also added more CEF at same time.

    ReplyDelete
  5. The market is testing the 100 day moving average again.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Considering the situation the EUR is in, it's amazing the USD hasn't rallied. Perhaps it's because it's a New World Order, and the US will play a large role in (print) in "saving" Europe, as per Timmy the tax-cheat Geithner's recent comments?

    ReplyDelete
  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SPX 1225ish should open the door for a quick move to 1245-1255 next week

    ReplyDelete
  10. Looking at Gary's HUI chart, I'm tempted to sell 80% of my miners and hide under a rock for the next 11 months. I've been investing in them for years and am still up nicely, I fear much of that will be wiped out in a few short months. I really did my homework on this and honestly thought I'd be doing very well by now. In the downdraft of 2008 I didn't sell a single share, I did a lot of buying all the way down and into the bottom. Not sure if I have the stomach to do the same again as the stakes are much higher now. I'm not really a trader of stocks, I have been just buying when I felt miners were oversold. Perhaps I should change my style.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sooth,

    I'm trying to get onto the program you're thinking of dropping. lol

    I agree Gary's charts are scary, and was just looking at the daily chart of $HUI for the last 3 years and noticed that once the 50 MA crossed the 200MA to the upside in March-APril of '09, the 50MA never crossed to the downside again until June of this year. It's back above it again, but it clearly caused some damage as we've seen since then.

    I'm gonna stick with my plan for now, but I might have to trim some (maybe half) into the A-wave rather than stick with these for years as I intended. I'm still undecided and suppose it will depend on how strong the rally is. Either way, I have time to decide. The longer they stay down, the more likely I'll choose to exit some.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I've done pretty well with miners and DGP, PHYS etfs through the last few years, but they were trading in/out with hold times typically of a few months. However, I have to admit that my best returns overall have come from my physical, and it's been the easiest trade as well. I've only been tempted to sell physical once, and that feeling was easy to over-ride, keeping me on the bull.

    Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
  13. S.B.

    On the other hand, if Gary's chart comes to fruition, it would be just ONE more gut wrenching year before a grand reward would be had... or ONE last case of Crown Royal to dull the senses while my portfolio temporarily melts. I see I am already talking myself into staying on this crazy ride for another loop. Off to go collect some more dry powder for about this time next year. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  14. stocks and eur/usd behaving as if bernanke has the printing presses running full tilt again. A ill advised stealth QE program designed to save the world. Nonetheless, with the US economy seeminlgly stabilized, the only bear market i see is the one deflating the USD.

    ReplyDelete
  15. If the dollar was going to fail miners and Gold would be a lot higher

    ReplyDelete
  16. No doubt, the long term is bright. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle so holding SOME is the the way to go. Not all in or out. :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. The SPX hit resistance at a 50% Fib level from the highs to the august low.

    ReplyDelete
  18. A marginal break of the 100 day moving average has been the death of bear market rally's in the past, if the dollar is ready to rally off the 50 now that may be the case here.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hmm. If that was the completion of a H&S top in the USD (may have just broken the neckline) we could see USD 73 and GLD tag its 50 ma before it rolls over again. Just a thought. Tricky here.

    ReplyDelete
  20. i am happy to see investors are realizing the miners are a total dud. It is time to stop chasing pipe dreams and use the capital for what has a proven track record... spot metals!!

    ReplyDelete
  21. WW,
    Keep us posted. I love your running "play by plays". Great insights!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Razvan,

    I wasn't saying they're a total dud, just that they could be in for a rough ride for quite awhile.

    NFLX is a total dud. lol

    ReplyDelete
  23. Miners filled the gap and look pretty good.

    ReplyDelete
  24. OK, well the major averages have been in a 1-4 DAY Demark DAILY SELL Setup since Wednesday with one more day left on Monday. We had a minor reaction so far, NDX suffering more thanks to AAPL. Mclellan Oscillator after decreasing the last couple of days has shot back up to nosebleed overbought and we all know about reversion to the mean around here. I was kind-of surprised that today wasn't flat and boring ahead of the European summit - oh well.
    NFLX indeed has been a dud, predicted by Demark with a MONTHLY sell setup that it has now emerged from. Now, look the other way, it has recorded a WEEKLY TD Combo BUY, good for 12 weeks with bullish-to-neutral DAILY counts. I wouldn't press any downside bets into NFLX earnings on Monday...

    ReplyDelete
  25. SB,
    once the metals bottom, you can go long spot silver with a 2:1 leverage and hold until the end of the bull when you should easily be up an equivalent of a 20 bagger but without having to take the company specific risk. Put that IB futures account to work mate! :P

    ReplyDelete
  26. Razvan,

    Following up on your suggestion to SB re at bottom going long spot silver with 2:1 leverage and holding - do you have an alternate suggestion for those without a futures account?

    Hoping that you do,

    Rose :)

    ReplyDelete
  27. begun scaling back in short the SPY and GLD here. about half positions in each.

    probably a bit early but i am not buying this fed MBS purchase story nor is the bulk of volume buying these moves in /es and /gc.

    /dx below 76 and i will wave the white flag.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Rose,

    I suppose that a leveraged etf like AGQ would be similar to buying futures.

    As the metals bull matures, I'm less interested in futures and derivative plays like leveraged etfs. I might trade them, but don't feel comfortable sitting in them for long periods of time. I agree with Razvan about company specific risk so trade a basket to try and reduce that risk, but I'm not convinced that the above options have no risk other than fluctuation of the metals.

    The Hunt brothers would agree, and were crushed by changing rules/margins etc, for the benefit of the boys in Chicago. If one reads into their story, it was a lot more than just "cornering the silver market". It was a coordinated attack and they were basically looted. I'm not sure what the solution is, but there is nothing guaranteed for sure, not even straight metal futures.

    ReplyDelete
  29. St Deluise,

    I also will have to scale back my SSO short today sometime, possibly take the entire trade off.

    I'm going to see if I get stopped out before the end of the day, but if not I might pull the plug anyway.

    Stepping away for a few hours.

    ReplyDelete
  30. With a rally like this today in the SPX the VIX should be lower.

    ReplyDelete
  31. I must say it is definitely trying mens souls to be short this market, I can only imagine how much short squeezing is moving this market to the upside.

    ReplyDelete
  32. there are too many people short the market and too many people short eur/usd . This is why imo the trades are not working.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Rose,
    AGQ is another way to leverage a silver position but it has more disadvantages then a futures position because if you dont catch the exact bottom you will have take into account the ETF decay (calculated based on the volatility of the underlying asset) which can add up to your losses beyond its goal of 2:1

    ReplyDelete
  34. SB, *adding* to shorts! haha

    but still giving myself a lot of space to add monday if needed. but we're close enough to my theoretical tops/bottoms that the turn might happen over the weekend so might as well have a foot in the door.

    ReplyDelete
  35. In 08 a half cycle top was put in SPX on day 14 off the low, we are now on day 13.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Took off most shorts this AM. GLD's MACD not crossing over the signal line with conviction. Takes some force to halt a sweet crossover setup like that one IMO.

    GLD's rising wedge did resolve down and did meet its price target. Pullback/throwbacks to the lower trendline of rising wedges happen 33% of the time, so this uptick is no surprise. A pullback could bring GLD to around 165 or slightly higher, near resistance of its 50 ma. In the meantime, the $USD's head-&-shoulders could resolve down stiffly over the next 2 weeks, just about the time GLD is ready to roll over again and discover where its final low will be.

    This is what I am seeing at the moment FWIW.

    One note for shorts. Once a successful rising wedge's pullback/throwback is comeplete... price resumes in the direction of the breakout (downward in this case) 87% of the time.

    I guess we'll see.

    http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html

    ReplyDelete
  37. The only thing that would change my mind is if gold closes down hard. Then the MACD might arch and smash down through the signal line. If that happens I'd bet Monday or Tuesday would be bad day for gold. May put shorts back on by day's end if this looks likely. Overall entire account is up +10% in two weeks. Not bad (for me) for such a dicey market. Usually I suck. Maybe I'm getting better? I can only hope and (do) pray.

    ReplyDelete
  38. My GLD rising wedge chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p75954198321&a=241730506

    ReplyDelete
  39. Dear Razvan and Shalom Bernanke,

    Thank you very much for clarifying - I am trying to put together an effective strategy that does not involve a lot of ins and outs from a lot of positions. Also, in your opinion (or anyone's) would there be merit to shorting a relevant double inverse etf? Or would decay again be a problem? And for either case, how long does it take for decay to mess up risk and reward?

    With sincerest thanks and very kindest regards,

    Rose

    ReplyDelete
  40. I have been shorting in and out of the VXX, small positions though. Seems to have worked for me.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Dear Rose,
    it doesnt matter whether you short or go long an ETF, you are still vulnerable to decay or compounding. The amount or decay is dependent on the volatility of the underlying asset. You can calculate this decay using mathematical equations which take into account the volatility. Check here for calculated volatility of spot gold (XAU/USD) and spot silver (XAG/USD)using average true range.

    I dont recommend ETF for long term investors. It is easier just to open a futures account.

    Actually there is an even easier way if you do not live in the US. You can trade leveraged spot gold and silver using a currency broker which has the XAU/USD XAG/USD pairs. The margin is only 1% (its never raised) and you can leverage up to 50 to 1. This used to be allowed in the US until the DOdd-Frank bill was passed this July.

    ReplyDelete
  42. The dollar's action this week looks like a coil.
    Today could be the fake out before it breaks in the opposite direction.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Gold is headed for 1670 levels...it will be hard to fathom for some... but watch it move up till 26 Oct ..

    ReplyDelete
  44. http://pippamalmgren.com/80.html

    ReplyDelete
  45. new 2011 highs on utilitiy average bugs me a lot. I am reconsidering whether the cyclical bull is really over

    ReplyDelete
  46. gideon,
    funny, Gary said that`s how it would be before the market puked it all back up again. It should be a sheet soiler!!

    ReplyDelete
  47. Rose,

    One would not want to short a double leveraged etf for a long term hold as the most they could make would be close to 100% even if silver quadrupled. The AGQ would perform much better, rising roughly 800%.

    Since you don't want to trade too much, maybe it would be best to spread the funds around, a couple straight etfs (or physical), and just a small % in an AGQ, DGP, NUGT, etc for some extra kick.

    ReplyDelete
  48. My USD head-&-shoulders chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05950645573&a=243271879

    Comments welcome.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Interesting discussion by Doc in his newsletter last night. He has made it available on the non-member part of his blog. Worth checking out.

    ReplyDelete
  50. danno if that dollar h&s (don't see it personally) unfolds the 233 day SMA /dx breakout will have dramatically failed/reversed for the first time in.. i don't know, ever?

    in that case i would not expect it to just pop right back up through it again.

    i think the dollar will have made up its mind in the next few days, and to a lesser degree of confidence i think that direction will be up.

    ReplyDelete
  51. SD,
    I don't think I follow you on the 233 sma. Can you explain (give example) of past 233 breakout support? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  52. i dont see it either. Looks like
    2-heads and shoulder

    ReplyDelete
  53. WW,
    I just don't see a short term downturn here; after the 200dma perhaps.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Miyagi,

    Stocks are in the timing band for a half cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Miyagi,

    There is also a long term trendline at 1245 and the 50 week moving average at 1265.

    ReplyDelete
  56. WW,
    I believe higher on Monday; of course this weekend's Euro summit will have some say in it.
    Half cycle low would help; at this point if it comes it probably would find support at 119-ish (off the top of my head).
    Wait and see now, hinging on the dollar from the looks of it.

    ReplyDelete
  57. WW,

    Thanks for the updates.

    Your comments are very valuable. I especially, liked the detailed info you gave on the short term gold trades, using SMAs.

    Thanks, again.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Insane BOW for Apple, and Big SOS for Exxon.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Miyagi,

    We'll see what happens monday, been adding on the way up from around 1199...so small draw down right now.

    ReplyDelete
  60. danno, here's just a simple chart

    /dx daily w/ 233 SMA http://i54.tinypic.com/1087m10.png

    the subgraph is effective volume.

    bearish case: should have rebounded already, broke the swing low, and closed below it (!) today

    bullish case: timing band for a low, the strong hands are holding, and on a smaller time scale (hourly) that last little move down was completely faded

    but who freakin' knows anymore. the close was bullish but imho the bear case remains most probable.

    half short gold and spy into the weekend. hmm.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Perfect set up. People are wondering if the the Bull is back alive in equities. Isn't this what always happens in a bear market?

    ReplyDelete
  62. on the positive side if the dollar just completely craps out starting next week the trade is pretty simple:

    buy gold and go on vacation

    ReplyDelete
  63. My USD head-&-shoulder chart (updated):

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03510721689&a=243271879

    ReplyDelete
  64. Here is Doc's newsletter from last night, available to the public due to so much interest.
    This is TRULY a gift on Doc's part, and well worth the read.

    http://www.thedocument.com/samples/20111020_volatile_dollar_session.cfm

    ReplyDelete
  65. Dear Haggerty,

    further to big SOS for Exxon

    Today, Stansberry Research sent out an alert that had to do with Exxon being shorted because of difficulties like political risk, higher costs, replacing reserves. And the conclusion was to consider buying small-cap natural gas companies. I do not follow Stansberry and do not know how I got onto their mailing list. I deleted the message so I cannot check it over again but I do think I have the main idea. FWIW. :)

    With very kindest regards,

    Rose

    ReplyDelete
  66. Mouse hovered to buy shorts until 3:59:59 pm

    Did not click.

    Unhappy gold had the audactiy not to fall more, messing up my pet indicators. Not happy USD barfed like a drunken whore on free drinks night. Not happy S&P pranced through the tulips like it wants to jump up and tag the 200 ma before it realizes what a mistake that would be.

    Will reevaluate Sunday night. Hope I didn't screw up.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Razvan,

    Thank you very much - will apply for a futures trading account and in the meantime will try to learn something about it. Successfully, that is. :)

    With very kindest regards,

    Rose

    ReplyDelete
  68. SSO didn't stop me out today but getting close. Monday morning should do it, though.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Shalom Bernanke,

    The strategy you set out makes an awful lot of sense - thank you so very much. I am also going to apply for a futures trading account. But having just seen the mile-long application form, I am going to save that fun for Sunday afternoon. I just cannot face it immediately after this very wearing week! :)

    With very kindest regards,

    Rose

    ReplyDelete
  70. I think it's pretty clear by now that the dollar cycle is broken and deflation is not going to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  71. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Ready to short the market. 1/4 position on TZA with a DX close above 77.55 on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Out of the 2nd intermediate cycle of the 08' 3 year cycle low it took 48 days for the dollar to back test the 50dma and bottom before resuming its rally, it took 46 days out of the current 2nd ICL if today was indeed the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Rose, my suggestion is to not leverage silver at all and buy a product like SLV. If you use futures use them only for gold.The volatility in silver is too much, at least for my style of trading.

    ReplyDelete
  75. I just looked at the SoS numbers and looks like banks, oil company's consumer goods and SnP littered the top ten.

    Any guesses?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Rose,

    If you plan on trading gold futures be sure you always have enough of a cash cushion to weather drawdowns, if you use tight stops you will certainly be whipsawed out of positions constantly (unless you enter at bottoms) and will almost certainly wind up blowing out your account.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Rose,

    I like Linn Group for my futures account. Commission is about $3 per trade. It use to be Ira Epstein but combined about a year or two ago. I really like Ira Epstein's midday metal report (just google it), very educational. In my opinion futures is the way to go, just don't use alot of leverage. For example, hold 20 - 25K cash in the acct for every silver mini contract. Tax treatment is great with 60% long term 40% short term. No trades to track for IRS, just a one line profit or loss at the end of the year. For old turkey on silver (when the time comes with Gary's reco, just continue to roll into the Dec. contract each year. Hope this helps, good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Typo,
    I said throwbacks/pullbacks to the lower trendline of a successfully penetrated rising wedge occur 33% of the time.

    That was incorrect. The throwback/pullback rate is actually: 73%, 63%

    No wonder gold rose. The odds greatly favored it. Good news for potential shorts is that once gold rises up or slightly beyond the lower trendline of the rising wedge, there is an **87%** chance price will resume in the direction of the breakout. In this case = down. Meaning there might be a pretty decent shorting opportunity say by the end of next week or maybe a bit into the following week.

    Noticed something about silver 2011 vs 2008. The falls in 2011 have been faster (less days). The rises are slower. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Rose is looking for the type of leverage similar to ETFs. With that amount of leverage it will be hard to blow a futures account and you dont even have to buy the exact bottom but be fairly close.

    ReplyDelete
  80. WW,

    I am curious if the "Falling Apple Pattern" is now off your radar, due to today's action in gold?

    ReplyDelete
  81. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Rob L,

    If this is indeed a D-wave and not a normal intermediate correction gold should not regain the 10sma until after it puts in a new low, the last bounce was right off of the 150sma which has halted all previous intermediate declines of this C-wave except for the July bottom, so let's see how that holds up. Gold hit resistance at the 20sma today, I have seen this happen many times on the 5 min charts after the 10sma is broken, gold hits the 20 and reverses...if gold does regain the 10sma again I would think it's possible that the 1535 low may not be tested. If the dollar continues the decent into hell we will all be chasing gold. Who knows what the frig is gonna happen next week, isn't the world supposed to end again...lol?

    ReplyDelete
  83. If one is in the top tax bracket, and gold profits are taxed at 28% for collectables (long or short term), does it make sense to buy stock in a hyperinflationary situation, since long term would only be taxed at 15-20%? (Can't remember the exact rate, but it could definitely change in the next couple of years!)

    SB, If you sell your miners, where would you put you depreciating dollars instead? (Assuming you keep some physical gold in addition.)

    TIA

    ReplyDelete
  84. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  85. ROSE

    careful careful careful

    futures are sooo powerfull

    please consider what kind of drawdown you can stomach. Its all about risk control

    ReplyDelete
  86. I would never encourage someone who is not yet successful trading stocks to open a futures account.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Rose,
    Futures are the quickest way to blow up your account. i'd paper trade for a minimum of three months before placing the first real trade. Even with gold, which is less volatile than silver, you can be trading just one car and be down 2000 - 3000 in a matter of a few seconds. If you absolutely have to start trading right away, dip your toe in with the minis -- /YG. It's 1/3 of the full contract, /GC.

    ReplyDelete
  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Will add that the minis have their own problems -- much less liquidity so the spreads are larger, and they are closed in the evenings for a bit while the /GC is still trading. But it's the best place to get your feet wet, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  90. diana,

    Good question, and something I consider every day. For now my best solution is to at least keep some, if not all, as stated above.

    The observation I made about the miner charts beginning to get busted would apply for roughly a year, not the long haul where I'd still like to be invested in them to preserve assets. Still, if they cannot rally harder than most assets once the upturn occurs, I'll be forced to sell some and look to re-enter at maybe 300-330 on the HUI. This would be my response to something that I still think is very unlikely.

    I'll let the rally tell me what to do, but the general idea is still intact even if my timing has been off. Money in miners will fare much better than money in banks or money market accounts.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Great silver debate. PM. Manipulation fact or fiction

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hnIqE1_ZGU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

    ReplyDelete
  92. Just read the prev post on gold finishing off it's D wave at 1535. It certainly could be, and I hope it goes even lower.

    So thinking ahead about the next ABC up ... is anyone thinking to buy physical gold here? I mean, given the even earlier post Alex spoke of, the one w/Bernanke's big moment and all, is this next ABC spike in gold going to be IT, as in IT? If so, would it not be wise to buy something like CEF, GTU or PHYS? Instead of GLD, IAU, etc.?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Just listened to the youtube posted by SF Giants Fan - the 'debate' as to whether the silver/gold markets are manipulated or not.

    My views are that if GATA wishes to prove their point, they need hard evidence that can stand up in court, with facts and data. Alls I saw was emotions and rudeness. Cudos to Christian for keeping cool and to the facts.

    There may be manipulation, and I'm sure it would be really hard to prove, but w/out proof, it's impossible to get behind it in a court of law.

    Christian won because Murphy didn't prove anything at all, in my book.

    ReplyDelete
  94. the great silver manipulation debate

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hnIqE1_ZGU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

    i was pretty neutral and open minded on this subject, that is until i watched this interesting video.

    Bill murphy from GATA came across as an hysterical conspiracy charlatan, arms flailing, flustered, agitated, with very little factual evidence to back up his stance. A con man

    Jeffrey christian was the opposite, credible, articulate, detailed factual responses.

    It was interesting to see that Murphy got most of the audience support, i guess people want to believe theres mass manipulation regardless

    ReplyDelete
  95. I remember one night i was scalping futures contracts and the market was not moveing, just sitting there. So i sold three and bumped the market.. The market moved and less than 2 seconds later went right back to doing what it was doing =) they dont call me the market maker for nothing ( joke )

    ReplyDelete
  96. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/10/fcx-stock-to-watch.html

    Some thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Jeffrey Christian and his supposed facts.

    Jeff Christian now just makes it up as he goes along

    Submitted by cpowell on 11:46AM ET Saturday, October 22, 2011
    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

    Debating GATA Chairman Bill Murphy yesterday at the Silver Summit in Spokane, Washington, CPM Group executive Jeffrey Christian graduated from his usual distortions to outright contrivance.

    The subject was one of the cables from the U.S. embassy in Beijing, China, to the State Department in Washington that were disclosed recently by the Wikileaks organization. Murphy characterized the cable as signifying the Chinese government's awareness of the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme.

    Christian disputed that. He replied: "What the cable said was the Chinese government asked for information related to allegations that they'd heard in the market from GATA about that, and what would the U.S. government say in response to those allegations? It didn't say that the Chinese government believed it. ... That's typical of taking a piece of information and twisting it and dropping off a couple of important words and making it fit your theory as opposed to the reality."

    In fact the cable, quoting commentary published in a Chinese government newspaper, Shijie Xinwenbao (World News Journal), on April 28, 2009, said nothing at all about allegations heard from GATA and made no inquiry of the U.S. government. Rather, the commentary quoted in the cable was exactly as Murphy characterized it: a flat-out assertion of gold price suppression. GATA didn't "twist" it or "drop off a couple of important words." Here is the text of the quotation in the cable:

    "According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration, China's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the United States and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi."

    The cable can be found here:

    http://cables.mrkva.eu/cable.php?id=204405

    And here:

    http://www.gata.org/files/USEmbassyBeijingCable-04-28-2009.txt

    The exchange about the cable during the debate at the Silver Summit begins at 15:40 in the video at Kitco here:

    http://www.kitco.com/falltour2011/debate.html

    During the debate Christian also sought to misrepresent Barrick Gold's motion to dismiss the federal anti-trust lawsuit brought against it by Blanchard Coin and Bullion, a motion in which Barrick sought to claim for itself the sovereign immunity of central banks against lawsuit. Indeed, for some time now Christian has been promoting a package of misrepresentations and distortions about some of the gold price suppression evidence collected by GATA, misrepresentations and distortions GATA answered in detail a year and a half ago here:

    http://www.gata.org/node/8659

    The guy isn't just misrepresenting and distorting now; he's making stuff up from scratch. But maybe we're lucky that this is the best the other side can do on the rare occasions when it comes out to answer for itself.

    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

    ReplyDelete
  98. This is confusing.... Every tool i have is showing very bullish for the SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  99. well it was a very bullish week with a very bullish close friday. the trend is up!

    BUT i think the strength of the rally in stocks is just due to how obvious the target is: the 200 (or my preferred 233) day SMA-- don't forget we're trading below it so it getting tested is about a sure a thing as one gets in this business.

    the following is just for fun:

    the feb-may '08 analog took 18 days to hit the first high from the double bottom (currently on day 17) *{both then and now took 40 days to double bottom}

    then there were was a 4.5% correction over 7 days or so {should start monday or tuesday}

    thennnn it took about 34 more days to test the 200. during that time the 200 day SMA fell about 20 es points from where the analagous point we would be today. so that would put the cap on this rally at about 1250- but it would still take another 5-6 weeks from now to get there.

    there is also a very large gap in the /es volume profile around 1248 that will act as heavy resistance. should be a decent short entry if we can tag it monday or tuesday morning.

    /dx still a huge question mark but the euro resolution that everyone was expecting this weekend seems like it ain't happening (surprise).

    ReplyDelete
  100. Clarkatroid,

    Jeffrey Christian called the exact top in silver at 50. Said it would drop to 35. It dropped to 32.30 within a week. (Evidence of no market manipulation.) Course, if he is cahoots with dark lord manipulators they could have planned his interview to make him look credible.

    Jeffery Christian calls silver top at 50
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYM7tPceXq8

    I'd like to see Jeffrey Christian debate Mike Maloney.

    Mike Maloney predicts how high silver will go
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY&feature=channel_video_title

    ReplyDelete
  101. here's the 08 /es chart with the current action in white, peaks correlated

    http://i54.tinypic.com/e0o0n8.png

    but again, just a goofy thing to consider.

    fundamentally i think one just has to assume it's a bear market below the 200 and a bull above.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Fun to watch. I am not invested at all. Right now i think i am getting a text book education on Bull traps.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Jeff Christian facts?

    Jeff Christian now just makes it up as he goes along

    Submitted by cpowell on 11:46AM ET Saturday, October 22, 2011
    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

    Debating GATA Chairman Bill Murphy yesterday at the Silver Summit in Spokane, Washington, CPM Group executive Jeffrey Christian graduated from his usual distortions to outright contrivance.

    The subject was one of the cables from the U.S. embassy in Beijing, China, to the State Department in Washington that were disclosed recently by the Wikileaks organization. Murphy characterized the cable as signifying the Chinese government's awareness of the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme.

    Christian disputed that. He replied: "What the cable said was the Chinese government asked for information related to allegations that they'd heard in the market from GATA about that, and what would the U.S. government say in response to those allegations? It didn't say that the Chinese government believed it. ... That's typical of taking a piece of information and twisting it and dropping off a couple of important words and making it fit your theory as opposed to the reality."

    In fact the cable, quoting commentary published in a Chinese government newspaper, Shijie Xinwenbao (World News Journal), on April 28, 2009, said nothing at all about allegations heard from GATA and made no inquiry of the U.S. government. Rather, the commentary quoted in the cable was exactly as Murphy characterized it: a flat-out assertion of gold price suppression. GATA didn't "twist" it or "drop off a couple of important words." Here is the text of the quotation in the cable:

    "According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration, China's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the United States and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi."...
    During the debate Christian also sought to misrepresent Barrick Gold's motion to dismiss the federal anti-trust lawsuit brought against it by Blanchard Coin and Bullion, a motion in which Barrick sought to claim for itself the sovereign immunity of central banks against lawsuit. Indeed, for some time now Christian has been promoting a package of misrepresentations and distortions about some of the gold price suppression evidence collected by GATA, misrepresentations and distortions GATA answered in detail a year and a half ago...
    The guy isn't just misrepresenting and distorting now; he's making stuff up from scratch. But maybe we're lucky that this is the best the other side can do on the rare occasions when it comes out to answer for itself.

    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

    ReplyDelete
  104. I've been so focused on Silver and how its chart has tracked 2008..

    I didn't notice $GOLD is tracking 2008 even better than silver.

    I would not be shocked now to see Gold drop to its 200 ma within 3 days. A -6% drop.

    In 2008 gold dropped -8% at this stage. Then had a massive pullback to the broken trendline of its Rising Wedge (it had one back in 2008 too) rolled over and fell to its ultimate low, which for us today would be about 1 month from now.. almost perfectly coinciding (if I'm not mistaken) with Gary's original prediction that gold might see a bottom in mid November.

    Meanwhile, the dollar Friday found support at its 50 ma. If the dollar has just a few good days that could be enough to break gold down -6% to its 200 ma.

    Not sure what I will do. Thinking about laying on some shorts again. [Scratches head. Slaps face. Pours bucket of water on head.]

    ReplyDelete
  105. Danno,

    FWIW, my yardman called the silver top @ 50, too.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Addressing the question of gold support at the 150 ma... the 150 was busted back in Sept> Even though it was only one day I don't think that can be disregarded. I don't see any real support at the 150.

    ReplyDelete
  107. No shorting Bull Markets Danno!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  108. I finally learned my lesson about that.

    ReplyDelete
  109. aklaunch,
    I know right? lol

    But it's so much fun.

    ReplyDelete
  110. I wonder what will key in the 1/2 cycle low? Possibly a stronger dollar compared to the Euro as this never ending summit meeting continues?

    ReplyDelete
  111. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  113. The EU thing is going to get uglier. I think we can see that now.

    In spite of any dollar strength the next few days, I believe the dollar needs to complete the downward resolution of a sloppy little H&S pattern, then it will be free to rocket to the moon as things in Europe ramp up to a climax.

    France hasn't even been downgraded yet. And that will trigger downgrades in other countries from what I understand.

    Just MO. Anything Gary says over rules any crap I say. (A given.) Sorry I talk so much. I'm just excited and I want to make some money! Up? Down? Sideways? I don't care. Just call it right. Whoo-hoo!!

    ReplyDelete
  114. bill murphy came across exactly as what gary warns about, a charlatan con man hitching a ride on the bull, trying (successfully it seems) to extract donations from gold companies and anyone else naieve enough to contribute

    He looks about as trustworthy as bernard madoff

    ReplyDelete
  115. I here there was a big earthquake in Turkey that has killed over 120 people. 7.2 they are saying.

    ReplyDelete
  116. And then the US likely to be down graded news again. Something needs to drive stocks into there half cycle low. Last time that happened it triggered panic selling of equities and gold went through the roof. I think they are saying it is a possibility in November. Not the same as a news flash though.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Jeff,
    it looks as though most of the crew has moved over to the other blog. Must make it tough for Gary to find the relevant questions.

    AK,
    this market staying afloat seems almost insane. We have to come out with a bigger and bigger disaster just to get a half cycle low. One of these days or months or whatever, there is going to be a pin prick that will let this whole thing flow down the drain. That`s going to be spooky!

    ReplyDelete
  118. Anybody heard anything from Europe??

    ReplyDelete
  119. 92000,
    there must not be much happening; I think we need to check the dollar for a pulse!

    ReplyDelete
  120. I have been checking a LOT of charts ( charts of equities / sectors / index's -etc) and MAYBE IT IS A BULLTRAP, everything hinging on Europe...but It's a good one :)

    Even now, everything I look at looks to have bottomed on OCT4th. If you bought then, at least you'd have plenty of wiggle room now to wait and see.

    Some observations- everyone can draw their own conclusions.

    Remember this?? I felt everyone would go short ..then a trap?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/oHbRYC4U6OhT

    http://www.screencast.com/t/lWy3cYNH8HN

    ---BUT THIS??...UGLLLLLLLLLLLY right now. ---

    http://www.screencast.com/t/3QtPLBO6

    ReplyDelete
  121. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Alex, have you any thoughts on gold? :o)

    ReplyDelete
  123. Additional F.W.I.W.

    (THIS BLOG IS SLOW tonight...so just giving you something to read).

    -I actually see a more good looking signs than just those-- BULL TRAP??

    For 1 example...
    some BANKS

    http://www.screencast.com/t/wlntbtzd

    BAC & JPM actually looks like they want to do another move higher soon (MACD, RSI, improving ETC in their sideways move).


    AND I re-post this every 4 months, MAYBE??

    http://www.screencast.com/t/c6UdavAdoCY

    I AGREE--ONE STEP AT A TIME -lol

    But--look at the following stocks on a 1 & 3month chart if you have time. Many have done well through Oct.

    Mostly ENERGY, the crushed Uraniums an Solars showing signs of life. Along with the List of MINERS that I posted last week that still havent pulled back even 50% ( YET?)
    Oct 4 was a good buy , but who dared to buy & hold? :)

    Look on 1 months-

    URRE,DNN, URG, SRI, OSK, GLNG, SBH, TPLM, CDTI

    IF WE GET A SMACK DOWN...AND A BOTTOM , YOU MAY WANT TO BUY 1 of THESE?? SINCE THEY SHOWED SUCH STRENGTH HERE.

    ReplyDelete
  124. EAMONN

    I did, but they conflict with what the cycle experts are waiting for.

    I think what I see / look for is good for trading, but long term...If I said I thought the bottom was in --and it changed--I can accept that.

    BUT- I thought the low was in for GOLD ( but the second scenario could very well happen too...another leg down).
    I dig up my charts from a couple weeks ago and post here. As far as Things go- it still hasnt been invalidated at all (OCT 4th Low for Miners) GDX is nearing a retest of that area, but NG, XG, SWC, RIC, etc arent even close.

    be right back

    ReplyDelete
  125. LAst week we went to the dotted line That I had drawn and bounced.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/7ITxxAJMx1

    for Miners , this megaphone target was hit on a wkly with a "dragonfly Doli"...
    so on a Wkly basis , I wasnt expecting GDX to CLOSE BELOW that low on a wkly basis ( Its getting very close this week though) ; )

    And the dollar ??

    I posted UUP 2 days before the top (Oct 4th ) as 'weak' looking

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Z6JDvmji

    Today I posted that chart of the UUP. It gapped down below the 50, Macd Weak, Accumulation Tanking. It melted a bit Friday.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/3QtPLBO6

    SO- It looks like the dollar could bounce , and drop further...but really ALL OF THIS could change with a EUROPEAN announcement this week.

    Right now, I'm just showing the flip side of the coin. NOBODY on here seems to agree with Golds low COULD BE IN , MINERS lows COULD BE IN, a dollar new lows COULD BE COMING. And signs of strength in the Markets.

    C.O.T. , $BPGDM, etc - UNTIL it changes, I will keep trading as I see it. BUT, I'm trading more than buy & hold.

    ReplyDelete
  126. I forgot to post the GDX chart I had posted before. It had a Dragonfly Doji...so I felt that low (ON a wkly) would hold on a Wkly closing basis.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Qi7ItKr5iR

    ReplyDelete
  127. Alex, I understand it then that your consider that the low on gold is in....hmmmm....conflicts with the cycle mandarins

    ReplyDelete
  128. Now that I've posted all of that-

    The markets will TANK tomorrow,

    The Dollar will ROCKET higher,

    and Gold and the Miners will drop into the ABYSS!

    No doubt..that's how it'll all play out from here -LOL

    ReplyDelete
  129. HA! Asian stock market doing quite well. Normally that gets every body in a good mood over here.

    ReplyDelete
  130. But EAMONN

    I wont ride anything down..If I see a drop coming...move to cash. This is ALWAYS on the back of my mind too.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/kyMXrm6YsBD

    I realize that A gap down Sunday night could happen,so I'm not fully invested. I am trading more often while holding SOME buys from Oct 4th.

    ReplyDelete
  131. What a scary silence.... Everyone is waiting for Gary´s commentaries :-)

    ReplyDelete
  132. ha

    i don't have much new to say. none of the moves in /es, /dx, or /gc last night (or friday afternoon) were supported by actual purchases or selling so i don't think they're legit.

    think a decent multiday turn happens today or tuesday.

    if /es tests 1242 in the AM adding piece 3/4 short there.

    my bull/bear MA on /gc (610 hourly sma) is now 1672.5, a mere .6% higher. best risk/reward price we're going to get shorting gold imHo.

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.