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Monday, October 10, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

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129 comments:

  1. Alex
    Any miners look good to you right now? Thanks in advance.

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  2. What the hell happen to Netflix, bleeding.

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  3. WW

    There is one more gap to fill in the 60's.

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  4. back when posted on euo---in at 18.48---smallish. it would surprise,

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. WHOA: Greek 1-Year Yields Hit 150% on Monday!

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. trendfriend,

    No. If that was a serious question then you have lots of reading to do.

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  9. Dan

    Don't laugh. That happened on 12 28 2010 due to light holiday volume. Holiday volume does strange things sometimes.

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  10. It's almost do or die time for gold.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. Another crazy day... thought I would be red with TNA at the end but worked out ok.

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  13. Putting some SPXU back on at the close.

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  14. sentiment is still way too negative for this rally to fail. all blogsters are negative, everybody is skeptical of the deal the europeans have announced. Whatever that is. There is a lot of money, and as we just saw, easy to force the shorts to cover on a light volume day..textbook

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  15. just chiming in that i'm still short gold and saw nothing today that spooked me otherwise. still fairly confident of new lows.

    DID get whalloped on that today though, but wasn't really paying attention.

    volumes across the board today light, naturally. let's see if there's continuation from here.

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  16. SF Giant Fan, did both AGQ and NUGT split today?

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  17. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  18. Wow, talk about gold being at a crossroads...the upper trendline of the downward channel that gold has been in since the highs, the c-wave channel upper trendline, the 20sma, and the 75sma have all converged, and gold just smacked its head on them full speed at the open...lets see what happens from here. If it blasts through all this resistance there is most likely no turning back.

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  19. SF Giant Fan,
    I thought is was just NUGT, didn't realize AGQ also.

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  20. Tweet from Sentimentrader.com

    Don't have final #s yet, but since 1940, the NYSE has never had a 90% up day on the lowest volume in a month.

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  21. At ease

    My bad. Not aware of NUGT Split. AGQ splits at the open on 10 13

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  22. At ease,

    Nugt will become a 3X etf on Dec 1, 2011.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Direxion-Realigns-ETF-etfguide-294373268.html?x=0

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  23. Stories like this should be good for PM's

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/10/06/126438/key-regulator-calls-for-limits.html

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  24. "Stories like this should be good for PM's"

    ..and even better for miners. :)

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  25. Gold system buy signal still has not established a stop, and it's being very stubborn about it:) I believe the 50 % fib retracement at about 1727.00 is very critical to be regained and if it fails there it will bear some intensive scrutiny.

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  26. V

    So in other words....it's ON!!!

    GL to all!!

    And go Lions!!!!

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  27. Thanks Mr Su on Nugt info.

    SF Giant Fan, I loaded up today for the split on NUGT and just some AGQ. LOL

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  28. At ease

    Don't be on the wrong side with this 3x EFT (after 12 1). It takes no prisoners. 10%+- or greater daily moves will occur.

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  29. SF Giants Fan, plan to be out as soon as money made. :)

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  30. Just a heads up for everyone,

    Anyone reading Clive Maund on 321 gold today. please disregard that article. It was mentioned by someone on the premium site that he changed his stance today and is now in the same camp as Gary.

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  31. bamster,

    And that is exactly why i canceled Clive's $1k annual subscription... nonstop flip flopping and his record was not great at all during the time I was with him. Although Gary also changes his mind on a dime, his record is much much better and you know exactly where he stands in terms of % allocation.

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  32. Panzer, it appears the sentiment has flipped in a week.

    http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2011/10/october-10th-blogger-sentiment-poll.html

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  33. What is with Columbus day.

    Oct 13, 2008 SnP closed up 11%

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  34. Bamster, I subscribed to Maund for a year, and he is quite sentiment-governed and changes the analysis according to his mood. -So that means he is now short term bullish and don't believe in an impending silver washout?

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  35. Gary-
    Are we on day 9 or day 18 of the dollar's daily cycle? That daily cycle count seems to be the difference maker.

    Thanks

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  36. If silver keeps tracking 2008 I would not be surprised to see a rejection at the 20 MA (Bollinger Band mid line). Guess we'll see if...

    "It's a trap!" -A. Ackbar

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  37. one thing's for sure, gold is not going to make it through the week without deciding one way or another.

    i will be adding chunk 3/4 of my short position on the open. previous two at 1645 and 1655- thankfully these little waterfall rips down keep bailing me out.

    waiting for the big one..

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  38. WW,

    Now that gold bumped it's head and pulled back off 1685 for the 4th and 5th time overnight, is this the signal you needed to go short or are you waiting for violation of 10sma? BTW, you probably saw that copper is down over 4% in pre-mkt - does not bode well for PMs..

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  39. I'm going to take a guess and say gold comes back by the end of the day to make a higher high. It's still too early for the dollar to put in a cycle bottom.

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  40. WW:
    Good call on the bounce off the 75...what are you seeing this morning?

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  41. Michael & wmp,

    Yes, im waiting for gold to break the 10sma to short. I would be suprised if the swoop didnt fail now for several reasons.. mentioned previously.

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  42. St. D,
    Adding shorts to Gold? Look at the 60 min GLD chart and you'll see a triangle consolidation pattern that broke out to the upside yesterday. We'll probably back test so adding to a short position is not something a charter would do here. Also, there are many gaps to fill around 167 and 172. Just trying to help out.

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  43. Don't forget FOMC minutes today.

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  44. I thinks its likely that the market will pull back to the 20sma before pushing higher, the dollar will bounce and this may drill gold below the 10sma sending it spiraling to a new low. We have to see.

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  45. Wav,

    FOMC minutes are tomorrow I think, you might want to double check.

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  46. Out of SLV Monday. Back in ZSL today. Not too heavy. Just testing the waters.

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  47. Gary's Old Turkey project has turned into a tick traders room. lol

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  48. sold a bit of S&P at 1192...we shall see where is this 20sma, LOL

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  49. guess buying euro at 18.48 posted here yestrday was such a bad idea. may or may not sell in here. nice quick move but also helped in avoiding other groups.

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  50. SB,
    Yes unfortunately too many people have gone down the day trader path because of the recent volatility and many refuse to learn rule #1.

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  51. if i were to buy gold stocks --favor ngd-ric

    hek---water not gold or maybe water is gold.

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  52. Gary,

    Your not talking about me are you!!! :)

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  53. Gary,

    I trade futures, so its ok to break rule #1 :)

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  54. on open bot gold stocks silver stocksIncluding options---and SPX

    blocked for now buying levered except options here buying deeper in the money slv

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  55. Does anyone know where I can find a comprehensive, reliable, and up-to-date source of margin requirements for futures? Every source I seem to use is inaccurate. Thanks.

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  56. I opened new positions in KGN and SBB (TSX listed) during the recent downturn. Also added to NGD.

    I bought some of my SBB at 2.60 and now it's at 3.60. Just illustrating the opportunities that you can get. SBB is a great company; very attractive takeover target in the future.

    If you don't have time to research juniors then I advise GLDX over GDXJ.

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  57. rule # 1? i think it has to do with never shorting a bull market. I remember there was a guy here who kept on trying to short silver last year and he was adamant gold wold never go higher than $1420. Neeedless to say we never heard from him again when silver had its big run.

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  58. I can assure you that breaking rule number 1 and rule #2 (leverage) doesn't allow one to beat the odds.

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  59. The 10yr yield is showing us the way - dollar will move lower and today is a break for it to catch its breath. That means Gary's coil break to the up-side is on! At least for a while... I would still love to see gold finish its D-wave in the next couple of months...

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  60. Gary's got it out for me today...lol

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  61. The dollar pulled off its highs and gold pulled back with it.

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  62. all trades in line with interals and pretty much Gary. Bot upro smallish on mini pull back.

    sold QQQ call day trade for 8% gain

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  63. I too thought the rules didn't apply to me when I was young.

    I was wrong!

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  64. WW,

    Thanks. I added NyseLiffe to my list of websites. It actually had the correct YI margin. I wish there was one site I could go to get up-to-date margins for all futures. CME is good, but not perfect.

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  65. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  66. In an ideal world, wouldn't be nice to have the stockmarket down for 2 days ( W2 right), and then Silver going to the moon ( Gary right)?

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  67. WW,
    Unless finviz.com is wrong, FOMC minutes from Sept 21 are due out 2 pm Oct 11th.

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  68. Wav...Im showing it for tomorrow.
    This is a better link than finviz...
    http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

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  69. Thanks guys. Looks like Finviz is probably wrong.

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  70. SB -

    Casey Research recommends the following for gold storage:

    GoldSilver.com (US & Canada), Miles Franklin Precious Metals Storage (in Montreal), Border Gold (Vancouver, Canada), VIA Mat International/Switzerland,and Global Gold (Switzerland). The last two are for "big pockets."

    Each have advantages and disadvantages. Hope this helps.

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  71. just kept following upro down----time will tell---have sell in at higher price as will be away a bit.

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  72. the McClellan market report has a gold and stock market bottom due on October 12-13

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  73. tapping fingers on the desk, waiting for silver to breakout...

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  74. Mostly, I'm waiting to jump out of my positions. Probably a good sign...

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  75. WW are you short gold futures. I went long when hit 1660 for 3rd time 75ma on 1hr chart.

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  76. Silver just broke the pivot of 32.20 to the upside.

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  77. would anyone buy with unsettled funds here not available to sell till friday?

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  78. diana,

    Thanks for your input on storing metals outside the US. I read today that goldmoney was scrutinized by Dutch lawmakers a few weeks ago, and it's now illegal for the Dutch to participate.

    This will certainly happen the in the US, and worse, so for now it appears miners are my best option.

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  79. I expect miners will also feel the heat of government at some point, via increased tax rates and/or nationalizations, but they're still the best game in town. Maybe the only game at some point.

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  80. Miners should be the last to go, being even criminal government still realizes they want and need more metal out of the ground.

    Capital controls in many forms are guaranteed, IMO.

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  81. Shorting the market right about here. In on TZA, 1/4 position. Will add another 1/4 position on positive confirmation tomorrow.

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  82. Haggerty

    yes, half a position so you can sit thru any bumps.

    Jenny

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  83. Allright.. another wonky day. Made my minimum plus a bit and it was not too easy.
    See you all tomorrow.

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  84. @ Methusaleh. Unless the market reacts badly to Slovakia, I wouldn't want to go short this marktet until SPY hits about 123, which is the upper BB. The TSI indicator is positive and climbing with room to run.

    SLV also looking very positive on TSI.

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  85. I decided to short some SSO at the close, and will add if we get a flat to higher open in the morning.

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  86. And if we get a gap lower, I'll add into a runup around 10 am or after.

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  87. @ Donagh

    The big question is China, not Slovakia. Alcoa's earnings (just released) is showing that my view regards China slowing is correct. Looks like I'll be adding another 1/4 position tomorrow.

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  88. Possible swing setup, -208 selling on strength in SPY, trend divergence on momentum oscillators, possible swing low in USD: decent short setup.

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  89. Equities have come a long way from just a week ago. We are now near the outskirts of the great Gobi desert:

    - Gobi means “Volume-less Place”
    - It stretches approximately 500,000 square ticks.
    - Contains 5 disctinct bull raping regions.
    - Currently expanding due to fund redemptions.
    - Lies in a liquidity shadow caused by the Bernanke’s put.
    - Second largest bear trap in the world.
    - It is a cold barren place for aspiring long traders.
    - Populated mostly by market makers and HFT sadists.
    - Located on a Plateau around 3,000 to 5,000 feet above fair price level.

    Via: The Evil Speculator :)

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  90. Alcoa reports 15 cents. 22 cents expected.

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  91. Matt
    Different company's have varying amounts of margin

    They are probably all correct

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  92. SB,

    For storage. A shovel, PVC pipe and some plastic bags. Dig a hole in your backyard. At least only you will know where it is hidden. HaHa. And no storag fe to boot. Lol

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  93. A friend of mine was asked to bring his metal detector along to help a friend of his who buried it and forgot where he put it!

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  94. That's funny mike. I actually haven't done that because
    I would most likely forget as well.

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  95. Natanarchist,

    lol

    Yeah, I agree, but there will never be a chance of getting that out of the country if that is something that I decide to do. I'm not going anywhere, but doesn't hurt to have options. :)

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  96. putting gold in a safe at a bank feels safer than putting it in the backyard?

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  97. Today is the same old story--paper gold/silver -of course there is no manipulation in the WEST.The Cartel’s goal is NOT profit, but to SUPPRESS the PM markets and thus ensure they are not viewed as SAFE HAVENS during times of crisis.

    Gold was strong overnight but was stepped on quite hard about 10 AM London time as is often the case. The east buys and the west sells.

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  98. Gold was just at $1900. Every fund manager in the world was buying it. I think it's time to give up on the "trick the ignorant public into thinking gold is not a safe haven manipulation conspiracy nonsense".

    If that's their goal they've failed miserably. There's no reason to keep up the pretense.

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  99. Is a retaliatory strike on Iran now off the cards, given that the US Government has gone public with their Saudi Ambassador assassination plot? Would be interested in hearing opinions...

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  100. now 3/4 short gold and made 9 big ones today.

    yep.. $9.00

    haha i might as well just make this a game at this point and be the nefarious gold short on the blog until the real ones show up at the bottom. feel free to root against! but seriously i could post the same charts i keep doing but what's the point, no one cares and i don't blame you.

    i will say that i'm looking at price AND volume in terms of.. well i've explained that countless times too. i got a system and i'm following it.

    the dollar's decline has been weird but a) seeing evidence of demand again now and b) actually i don't care what the dollar does. at all. bought the dollar around 74 and got stopped out around 77 on that fed non-announcement. will not be touching it ever, ever, again.

    see you tomorrow if anything interesting happens. rest assured i will let people know if/when i bail on this Au short so i can be made fun of and/or lectured.

    your temporary term PM villian,
    dom

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  101. From John Embry who knows just a little about gold/silver i do believe :Its good to here both sides on the forum here-

    This Dexia Bank failure just showed how vulnerable the European banking system is. This was one of the banks that stood out in their stress tests and then two months later they have to recapitalize it and nationalize it. This probably brought home to people that we are talking trillions of euros to recapitalize the banking system over there to keep it functioning

    That money printing is an extraordinarily bullish event for gold. If gold weren’t manipulated the way it is, it probably would have been up $100 on that news. Gold was mercilessly pounded at the end of last week, so gold is still getting kicked around, but it’s building a base and the next move will take it comfortably through $2,000.





    Gold needed a correction after the big run it had, but it was the way it was done that was the big tip off. They (central planners) manufactured a correction for many reasons, one being the European banking situation and the general economic conditions. Just as importantly, I think the paper guys have to get their short positions down because they know what’s coming.”


    When asked about silver, Embry replied, “The shorts had all sorts of incentives to just beat the crap out of it, which they have done. But I think it (silver) will go up faster than it went down once this thing turns around with conviction, which is coming up fairly soon. I still don’t have a problem with $2,000 gold and $50 silver before the year is out....
    I mean one other aspect about the whole correction, there is discussion about these position limits being imposed on COMEX, particularly in silver. It is absolutely incumbent upon these guys to get their short positions down, which they have been able to do with the recent weakness. They simply forced the long speculators out, they have deeper pockets than those guys and basically they took them to the cleaners.”





    When asked about the action in stocks, Embry stated, “Monday was classic, I mean they had a really quiet day with Columbus Day in the United States and Canada was closed. On light volume they rammed the market up over 310 points.





    It was ironic, I was talking to Eric Sprott earlier today and he asked me, ‘Do you know what happened on Columbus Day in 2008 before the market really started to collapse?‘ I said, ‘I have no idea.‘ Eric said, ‘It went up over 1,000 points!. Then it subsequently dropped 40%.‘ So Monday’s action to me was absolutely window dressing.





    I think investors have to be aware of the degree of manipulation in all of the markets here and not make the mistake of being momentum players. They shouldn’t just try to go with what is working and jump on board because a lot of this is manufactured for the sake of appearances.





    It troubles me because I see people losing faith in their gold and silver holdings and buying bonds for crying out loud. Those truly are certificates of confiscation, people just haven’t figured that out yet.”

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  102. Interesting chart on volume gap of SPY. No wonder we can't break out of this range to the upside.

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011-10-11_gobi_volume.png

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  103. SFG Fan,

    Interesting chart, indeed. But what would you expect from showing only a few trading days volume vs. 2-4 months worth...

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  104. SF Giant Fan - thanks for the chart, it is interesting indeed.

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  105. Interesting comparison chart of SnP

    http://www.etf-corner.com/.a/6a010535da87f8970c0153923819a0970b-pi

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  106. Gary - Does the Weight Lifting Team do a Christmas calendar? I am trying to ween my mother-n-law off fire fighters.

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  107. Alcoa missed? What a shocker... not..
    Jimmy Cramer said in February that this was going to be the stock of the year! BUY BUY BUY! Said it again in August. I wonder if he has changed his mind.

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  108. Gold is about to break back out of the c-wave channel and regain the 75sma and 20sma. Should be a smooth push to the 50sma above at 1755. Long gold futures.

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  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

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