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Monday, October 24, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change will be made at the open this morning.

58 comments:

  1. Gary,

    Do you have an idea of expected hold time for your latest move, or are you beginning to get positioned for the longer term?

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  2. $SPX Cycle Pivots of Time /Price hit this Week,Oct,24/29,,Early Nov2nd:


    http://screencast.com/t/pRgzckoackmz

    http://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

    SPX 15Min Channel:

    http://screencast.com/t/UAZWJ3Ta

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  3. SB,
    depends on if gold can make a higher high and confirm an intermediate bottom was put in three weeks ago.

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  4. This is such a tricky one to call IMO.

    Sprinkled on a few silver puts this morning, but mainly to protect a core long position. If we see any sudden downside in gold I feel it may be rather limited and the short opportunity is just not juicy enough to go crazy.

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  5. i suspect we're about to see a 2nd swing low on the dollar today/tomorrow at 76.255.

    not sure how long it will hold though. longer than the last one, i think. much much higher buy divergence this time.

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  6. added piece 3/4 of sds at /es 1245

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  7. Gary, when you refer to a higher high are you referring to the 1695 high made last week?

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  8. Margin Changes.

    http://screencast.com/t/m77gOIWFujeJ

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  9. The S&P has hit my stop area, and I'll look to book the loss into the next pullback. Depending on price I get, will be roughly 1% of total assets.

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  10. SB, thanks for posting your trades in real time and being so straight forward about winners and losers... it is a tremendous assistance to the traders that read this blog...

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  11. Now we`re starting to see some action on the SOS!

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  12. Nibbled some more today...going Turkey with a building position...With the parabolic move behind us, and the fundie support gaining almost weekly, I don't want to be naked with dollars. Downside is that I can suffer a moderate drawdown, but the end game is all the same. Ah well back to losing money.:)

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  13. warning! mclellan oscillator (at least the one on thinkorswim) is showing its highest overbought level for 2011!!!!
    if anyone involved in the major indices - sell or wait for a pullback to enter!

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  14. If gold had already printed a DCL and ICL, it would be going gangbusters with this extreme dollar weakness. Just my opinion.

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  15. Well I do have to say I did some interesting reading last week on the projected US budget. They anticipate growing spending up to
    4+ trillion in a couple years from the present 3+ trillion..90% of exp are med/SS/war/int...they assume US borrowing rates will stay at these levels for the next 5 years...and get this they expect the deficit to be cut in half in 5 years. How? They expect individual taxes to double over the next 5 years.

    In best case the debt will be 20 trillion in 5 years...probably closer to 25...

    Interesting tug a war taking place. This gold bull is a real bastard!

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  16. so if my peabrain whackadoodle plan is correct,

    /es tops here, corrects for a week, then it takes 4-5 weeks to come back to meet the 233 day at around these prices.

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  17. I just got another sale flyer from Tulving. Iminent crap out? I think they have a better idea than me!

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  18. Canadian banks not budging too much in the past week. US banks a bit of a see-saw.

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  19. coolkevs;
    I don;t get the same levels for NYMO on stockcharts.com. It's not overly-overbought and definitely not the top of the year. NYAD/NYADV are creeping up there as well.

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  20. Will be interesting to see the dollars reaction to dipping it toe's into the 200 dma. at about the same time the SPY bonks it head against the 200 dma.

    The GLD ETF. is head locked in its trend line.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p89459180089&a=242359237&listNum=1

    SLV is showing a text book pennant continuation pattern.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p63735458208&a=244984101&listNum=1

    I am on the team of a dollar rally. Just see a bit more down side first. Which line will hold it is the million dollar question?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82256104756&a=244997080&listNum=1

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  21. i must admit im not comfortable with a gold position here, not with the dollar in a timing band for a rally

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  22. Big SPY Sos today as well as tagging of the upper trandlines on big megaphone patterns for all the big indexes. That HAS to mean the markets will at least pause for a mid-cycle low right? :)

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  23. I didn't get an impulse move lower in SSO (2-3 bars lower on the half-hour chart), but since hit my stop level, covered some anyway. Covered 1/3, kept 2/3.

    Have a good evening all.

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  24. UUP printed another one of those big, fat red candles I was screaming about the other day. The whole body of the red candle completely engulfs the solid red candle from Friday.

    I took that as a potential sign UUP might fall further so bought a few UUP puts. Just experimenting really. I know UUP is not the same as $USD.

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  25. I didn't use much money with UUP puts. Just enough to partly offset any losses I might encounter with the protective SLV puts I bought this morning.

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  26. Dollar has the 200dma and 74.0 trend line then the PM rally of a life time. I doubt it though! I bet it will catch in between the two??

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  27. Pol,

    I second that. Gold failed to regain the 10sma today with a weak dollar.

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  28. NFLX getting crushed. It went up irrationally earlier this year, and it is coming down rapidly too.

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  29. Doc's line is "gold meanders out of intermediate cycle lows". Oil comprises of 23% of the $CRB index and it's smashed through the weekly, intermediate trendline, strongly indicating that commodities have bottomed...$DXY fell out of a H&S and closed under a key pivot today. Miners seem to have put in double bottoms or close enough double bottoms with strong action off that new low. I'm leaning towards the miners having their bottoms in.

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  30. For me, $GOLD is still on a sell signal as it's still below it's 50dd EMA.

    On the 60 min chart, the $XEU is showing neg divergence in the RSI(14) and MACD (I use PPO).

    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro turn down soon, thus the dollar up, thus gold still consolidating a bit longer.

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  31. I'm guessing the sloppy little $USD H&S should complete its downside journey fairly soon, then back to the races. Enough time for $GOLD to complete a pullback (pullback UP in the case) to test its broken rising wedge trendline. Those pullbacks normally take 10 days. Today was day 5.

    5 year $HUI chart looks sickly IMO, like it's slumping over to the right and ready to barf beans.

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  32. I believe it's important to keep a watchful eye on gold, due to seasonality. I thought that investment demand eclipsed jewelry demand, but Gary set me straight, so as long as we're now in this wedding/ceremony demand season for gold, I think it could go up at any time.

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  33. tonight's AH gold plunge starting ahead of schedule

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  34. Plunge? Dropped around 9 bucks at one point, now down -.19%

    Looks to be putting in a neat little inverse H&S on the 2 hour chart that points to the low 1700's.

    http://screencast.com/t/b2Z8bFr8

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  35. NFLX is down 28% during after hours trading.

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  36. I've been saying there is one more gap to fill in the 60's for NFLX.
    CEO Reed H has done his share of dumping, I mean selling.

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  37. NFLX CEO is toast. The board must do something to stop the collapse.

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  38. Been holding my PM position strong under the assumption Europe will come out with a stop-gap plan right around the time the US budget problems come back next month.

    Also under the assumption that while Bernanke may be a systemic moron, like most of the US, he's clever. He's able to think exactly one linear step ahead, from 2008 until now, or from the great depression to now. He's probably got a whole list of backdoor options not to let those situations happen again. Now any problems outside those, he's screwed; and we're screwed.

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  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  40. Thoughts on UUP red candles. I realize the dollar is trading 24hrs so UUP is not a perfect representation of the dollar. Even so...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p54149795006&a=244519671

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  41. Inter-Market from C3X which gava advance signals on Oct 2 about the impending rally in risk as the FX portfolio from C3X clocks over 2000 pips in a difficult month

    Inter-Market analysis

    The performance comes after Sept where the performance was an incredible 3000 pips.

    Their latest analysis is UP

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  42. What's causing the $SPX to rise?

    Doesn't look like short covering to me, though am not sure. No QE3 yet. Any ideas on what's causing this?

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  43. The Dollar is going to get one more day from me.

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  44. bill,
    That one is easy. The collapsing dollar. If Ben is flooding the world with money it has to land on something. Stocks got up badly this summer and money is flooding back into that sector.

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