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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio changes been made.

161 comments:

  1. Gold higher than $1696.8 will confirm a new cycle. Though if Gary is convinced that a low is in, I'm happy with that too. We all know how good he has been at calling the lows. Thank you Gary :o)

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  2. From the last post

    Actually SB and KEYS

    My opinion is OCT 4th = THE LOWS , and OCT 20 , recent latest lows.
    and Volume buying is coming into these Miners right now.

    The way I look at things (take EXK,NG, and XG for example) on a 3 month daily chart.
    The lows were on OCT 4th..everyone was BEARISH and throwing them AWAY--

    BUT Buyers came in and pushed them up big off those lows...then a sideways move has kept them strong(Over their 10sma, but wore off Overbought conditions)EXK actually dropped below the MA's , but has recovered...

    They now are ready for a break out over recent OCT highs with volume.

    I.M.H.O. Prices will not be lower than OCT 4th , and now not below OCT 20's recent lows either. Buyers will now buy the dips ( like today)

    EXAMPLE: EXK looks to have large volume buying by days end / and is NOT overbought, so has room to run , and recovered it 10 & 20 sma

    http://www.screencast.com/t/qoEvqQkMQB

    October 25, 2011 8:09 AM

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  4. Poly, will be interesting to see today's close on TGLDX. :)

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  5. Now this is what i call follow through. Nice call Gary. Hands down you are one of the best bottom callers I've ever seen.

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  6. Thats it, $1696.8 in spot gold has been breeched

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  7. This is a very impressive move by gold. Congrats to those of you who are in!

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  8. BO by silver out of its triangle.

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  9. right now EXK is setting up for an A-B-C up.

    It has more than enough Volume needed and it'll be a fast move to target $12 area.if it has 2 million at lunch...maybe 4 million end of day.

    this chart was only 10.30 am


    http://www.screencast.com/t/qoEvqQkMQB

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  10. Eamon,

    Yes TGLDX should be up nicely too.

    I went in heavy on the first tick over $1,697.

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  11. got long DGP here for the first time in forever. still holding a dec GLD put just in case anything REAL crazy happens, which is surprisingly not down very much at all.

    real kick in the nards today! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avU2aarQUiU&ob=av2n

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  12. Dear All,

    What a day to HAVE to have been away – just came back and saw the big metals moves and the portfolio changes. Any kind suggestions for remedial action to take?

    With sincerest thanks in advance and with very kindest regards,

    Rose , :) smiling anyway

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  14. Rose, never go in with your whole position. Always piece in.

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  15. Does everyone here have a margin agreement? For some reason I can't touch my money when we do these portfolio changes. Something about the proceeds being tied up until "settlement" and that takes 3 days. Has it always been this way? WTF???

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  16. I mean, this seriously drives me nuts! I sell one thing and then cannot reinvest that money for three days??? How is an investor supposed to be nimble if it takes three days to get access to his money?

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  17. Just peeking in to get the score, nice surprise.

    Several miners report earnings in the first two weeks of November, so we have a catalyst for some follow through on this move. I see HUI over the 200 MA again, but GDX right at on it.

    Let's see what happens, but I might have to turn up my risk a little more. I don't like buying strength in down trending markets, but today is beginning to feel like metals&miners have turned the corner.

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  18. HAL

    I believe you CAN buy with unsettled funds...(you just cannot sell it until the settlement date of the original sell that freed up the money).

    A Margin account eliminates that problem all together.

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  19. I hope those that timed the bottom well stay with their positions and don't take profits at the first sign of pullback. If miners have turned decisively higher starting a new uptrend, riding through pullbacks will be the most profitable strategy, as it'll be too hard to buy back once profits are booked.

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  20. Hal,

    I think if you have a margin account you should be able to trade everyday without the restrictions of a non margin account.

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  21. Perhaps the HUI is aiming to close that gap at 610?

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  22. dxy is sitting at MA 200, everyone is buying PM so..

    looks like bottom in dollar is in.

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  23. USLV could be a nice vehicle to ride this intermediate cycle...

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  24. Thanks guys. I'll send in the margin agreement so my accounts can be nimble.

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  25. Eamon

    Be careful with that brother. We need to play this game for a long time. know yourself and what you can handle as far as a drawdown.

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  26. GPL not doing well compared to exk & slw

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  27. Haggerty, yes, thank you. It could be useful though if the time is right...

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  28. silver was the best way to play today if you were out of position. It broke out much later than gold and is already up more than gold for the day.

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  29. Hal,
    I had that problem with a regular account, it's just the way it is.
    Open a margin account and you can buy and sell as soon as your order is filled, no questions asked.

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. Blogger oa92000 said...

    GPL not doing well compared to exk & slw

    Actually, its a little deceiving to look at the chart, because it doesnt "LOOK LIKE" it is doing much , but actually it is up over 7% and has great volume. SLW only 3% and EXK 6% (Currently) . So its a better performer today.

    Its pushing against a down trend line and I believe its going to run very well when it breaks through. With this volume building, it should be sooner than later I.M.H.O. ;]

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  32. FSLR crushed.

    We will not be hearing from Beanie today.

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  33. DAVID

    SO GLAD you wrote that...thx! I actually bought STP and LDK recently...better go check on them :)

    Should just swap to GPL or UXG

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  34. What does all this mean for the dollar?
    This is a significant move.

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  35. Right on that FSLR pulls a netflix

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  36. Long gold futures at a break above the 78.6% Fib level (1697ish)

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  37. GPL got a hair cut from 4 to 2..

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  38. Oh ao92000

    You meant Longer term, I thought you meant today. my bad.

    They all look like they could at least double going forward :)

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  39. Gary

    Failed cycle = 3 year low still ahead?

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  40. no way that SPX will go to 1550 or something and this is what Gary is predicting IF dollar failed its rally

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  41. Rose,


    Like you, I was travelling today, so I am frustrated to have missed the starting of the run, but I am sure that we will be able to get on the train soon.

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  42. SPX reversed yesterday right at the neck line of the head and shoulders top, looks like it may close today back below the 100sma.

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  43. For guys who want to read Poly's views on markets, he is on Twitter @TradePoly.

    I love his trading style. He has made amazing calls over last 1-2 years.

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  44. Gary,

    It feels so great to be making some money, even if it's only for a day or two. Thank you.

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  45. just bailed on my SDS here at es 1230. breakeven.

    sell signal to 1220 still valid but i don't like how it's acting.

    i'll try a short again at the 233 day SMA. but as far as i'm concerned gold is back. half DGP position for now. looking forward to old turkey again.

    also bought a small slug of the solar etf, TAN. i'm not sure how much more abuse this sector could possibly take. and it's in the low $3's for cryin' out loud.

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  46. Gold pushed right back up against the 75 resistance.

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  47. Gary,

    with your investment of 10% of portfolio in a special share ( I don't want to give too much info), would you consider a position of Copper, Palladium, Platinium futures as being as good ?

    Also, very silly, but I want to change my name of the premium site, how do I do that please?

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  48. I'm going to dial up my total risk by another half percent by the close. I know it's not much, but I hate buying up days in a down trending sector.

    Keeping everything else the same, including the 1/3 SSO short I have left and of course all my miners.

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  49. SPX back below the 100sma, looking good for shorts. Still holding SPXU.

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  50. W2,

    You have " cojones " of steal my friend...I cut on Friday morning my shorts and reverted...
    Let's hope that you are right, it would be nice to buy the damned Dax cheaper!!

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  51. HUI right at the 200 MA. I dialed up my risk a bit as stated earlier, but would like to see the HUI stay above the 200 so momentum monkeys start to get interested.

    It should happen, but will take some time, IMO.

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  52. I meant Steel...sorry... getting late at night here

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  53. I find pretty amazing that Gary does on vacation and makes tons of money on the first day of his break! I guess that it pays for some burritos and some ropes to climb!! Well done, pretty impressive

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  54. Miyagi-sensei,

    I was just contemplating Netflix..Apparently, they are coming to the UK... 77$ seems still a bit expensive, but it is going to be very soon a great buy

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  55. Sophia,

    Netflix has never made money. Why would it ever be a good buy? They will go to single digits before getting bought out.

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  56. Sophia;
    I have a feeling Netflix will be gone in a year.

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  57. SF, the 3-yr cycle low will be in about three years. If it's severely left translated, then we are in for some wild ride ahead. Regardless of PMs getting some legs if the dollar cracks, I think we'd all be a lot better off if the dollar could still top the recent 80.

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  58. Mr. M, I wouldn't be surprised about netflix. Disconnected management; dubious financial model.

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  59. wow, you know better then...will stay away from it then

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  60. For Sophia and All from Rose with very best wishes :)


    further to our missing today's timely entry and "getting on the train soon"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EmzhG9P-y8
    [2 minutes]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpZMqCiD_Nw&feature
    [32 seconds]

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  61. Thanks for the shout Sandy, I think you doubled my Twitter count, LOL.

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  62. Dear Poly,

    further to your Twitter account doubling

    Swore I would NEVER sign up for Twitter - well, as the old saying goes: NEVER say NEVER!

    Following you,

    Rose :)

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  63. Nice of Poly's wife Sandy to chime in. :)

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  64. Poly,
    I didn't know you had a twitter account, or would have tweeted you sooner!

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  65. trond56 and Alex,

    Just got back from Silver Summit in Spokane. Spoke to management of MGN (Mines Management)and RVM (Revett).

    It will be 5 years before MGN's Montanore and RVM's Rock Creek go into production and that is assuming all permits get approved and no new lawsuits and no delays of any other kind, etc. So, FYI.

    I own both - small positions. The deposits are there but timing?

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  66. Dear Aaron,

    Thank you very much for your quick reply. It really helped me think out a reasonable plan of action - starting with: CALM DOWN :)

    With very kindest regards,

    Rose

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  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  68. Rose, following Gary itself is probably the best plan, but these blogs offer some great side help. LOTS of knowledgable members here.

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  69. The dollar rallied today, and metals rallied even more. Focus on the dollar to predict metals direction will keep you out most of the time.

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  70. Alex in MT-

    Which ones were you most impressed with at the Silver Summit?

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  71. SB, Agreed. I actually removed the post...more importantly, the metals could simply rally with the dollar.

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  72. Aaron,

    Right. There will be days when the dollar and metals go the same direction, and others where they diverge. I'll keep reminding people that watching the dollar index is not giving them an edge, at least with the PM's. :)

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  73. This is from the money flows section of the WSJ.

    Among stocks that are up today, these have the largest outflow of money. Figures are updated every 15 minutes between 9:50 a.m. and 5:45 p.m., eastern time Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Percent change is calculated from the prior day 4 p.m., eastern time, closing price.



    Regarding BOW and SOS can anyone here translate this into english for me in a one or two liner please.

    Thank you,

    .....

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  74. sophia,
    When you are on the Premium website at any of the daily reports, go to the bottom where you would enter a comment and just above that space it says "You are logged in as ". Click on your name and put the "nickname" as whatever you want it to appear and just below that pick the name you want displayed in the drop down menu.

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  75. Dollar and metals drive their own cars, seen it while trading futures many times.

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  76. BOW/SOS money flow.
    I'll try to explain this and make it simple.

    SMT stock opens at 10$ and 1000 orders buy it at 10$. Then 5000 people buy it at 9$ then 2000 people buy it at 11$.
    Total money flow:
    Uptick 2000*11$ = 22000$
    Neutral 1000*10$ = 10000$
    Downtick 5000*9$ = 45000$


    Stock closes up at 11$ from 10$ opening price and low price was 9$.

    Uptick 22000$ plus Downtick (-45000$) equals -23000 and since the price ended up this is a negative number giving you Selling on Strength.

    This is a simplified version of it but what it is telling you is that although the price went up, more shares traded hands when it was going down, less shares were traded when it was going up.

    If you add the numbers on the BOW?SOS page, Tick Up - Tick Down = Money flow.

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  77. Fulford (conspiracy theory? - maybe):

    "The highly secretive “trading platforms” used by the self-appointed rulers of the world have been shut down in preparation for the revamping of the global financial system, according to sources in the CIA and in Japanese military intelligence. This shut down took place earlier than the previously announced date of November 11, 2011 (11/11/11) in order to prevent any possible sabotage by the beneficiaries of the old system, the sources say."

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  78. Looks like Benjamin Fulford has come down with a bout of schizophrenia

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  79. i keep telling myself i will stop watching /dx (since i don't trade it) yet repeatedly allow it to confirmation bias my opinion on what i actually trade.

    gold in particular- when the asians or europeans buy it i doubt they give much of a hoot what the dollar is doing vs. say the yen devaluing or italy hinting they're about to implode.

    i'm still not 100% on this breakout but convinced enough to buy it. if it fails i'm out ~3% but then at least i know with a very high certainty it's headed to test its lows.

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  80. I'm 100% long gold & silver right now but my current bearish price target for gold is the 200 ma minimum, and $1,375 maximum. $GOLD just completed what looks to me like a perfect bearish Rising Wedge and GLD had a perfect bearish Pennant.

    What we may be experiencing now is a sharp 'Pullback' or 'Throwback' to the broken trend line. This positive price action could be over within as little as 5 more trading days.

    Successful bearish Pennants lead to an average decline of -19%.

    http://thepatternsite.com/pennants.html

    Pennants are the workhorses of the day trader. They perform an invaluable service by marking the midway point in a move.

    This indicates to me the dollar will be going a lot higher (after it finally puts in a low). We can see the problems in Europe are going to take weeks or months to climax. Gary's initial D Wave price target of (I forget exactly) 1450 ish is still firmly in my mind. I listened to his audio interview 4 times.

    My Notes on GLD
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30797345213&a=246887053

    Of course, as always, I could be all wrong. Usually am. Change my mind like I change my socks (after it's way too late!) As always, just chatting. I have no idea what's gonna happen! whoo-hoo!! All aboard the crazy train!

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  81. Poly

    Dang your twitter following list tripled today. I'm proud to be #5 from the bottom.

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  82. a word of caution. All og gold;s 2nd waves have taken the form of A down B up andf C down. So far I count A down from 1924 to 1535 and B up in progress. B should get to the top of the channel line which is also about at the 50day MA at 1750ish, but then a C wave is to be expected. Thus, there is some room to the upside, but I very much doubt this is the real deal. The rather anemic volume would also support this.

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  83. First. NFLX
    Second AMZN


    Next. PCLN. Priceline

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  84. Thanks MM,

    I appreciate it. For that WW is going to buy you all the beer you can drink this weekend:)

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  85. Gold looks like it will break the 75sma tonight, if so there should be little resistance until the 50sma.

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  86. Ak,

    Lol... I just noticed that. Miyagi how did I know you were going to be the one to answer that question, true sensei you are let me tell ya! :)

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  87. i'm seeing 1730 as the next target (1597 hourly sma & 32.8%)

    http://i44.tinypic.com/211jx47.png

    also would be a backtest to the wedge breaking that danno mentioned (but at a higher price?)

    agree that from there either a massive amount of buying would have to come in or a lot of time will need to pass for these MAs to drop sufficiently. the move this morning is still sort of a head scratcher since it, as far as i can tell, truly arrived out of nowhere. surprises, bull market, etc.

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  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  89. St. D,
    The market decided that gold had indeed put in a daily cycle low and then got busy doing what it does during the initial move out of a cycle low.

    I warned yesterday that this could happen, and initiated opening positions in case it did.

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  90. So I guess we can stick a fork in the dollar....

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  91. St D,

    The move this morning was carried out by big money within minutes, buying begets buying. If gold is to reverse it will be due to the exact opposite, hard drop within minutes, selling begets selling.

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  92. I love when gold trades like it is tonight, back to normal for now, nice slow grind...my head isn't spinning. Looking to take of the futures long at the 50sma, see if it's going to give gold a bit of a hard time.

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  93. Today's move looks like a spike out of a coil, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold reverse, hope I'm wrong.

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  94. yeah, WW. You are spoiling my party here!

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  95. This guy was so right, but his timing was so wrong.

    Hedge fund lost big on NFLX short

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/netflix-short-was-hedge-fund-manager-tilson-s-biggest-2010-loser.html

    Kind of what gary says about using options and leverage.

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  96. Gary,

    It's not a coil, just looks like the spike out of one.

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  97. Gary,

    Neither was the consolidation out of the 1535 low a coil :)

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  98. Poly, your reputation is well deserved:) As you may have realized, I am a fan of your trading style and conviction.

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  99. Eamonn,

    Forgive me :) I did say I hope I'm wrong.

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  100. Gary,

    I disagreed when you said that gold was coiling (along with silver) and said it was flagging, was your "not a coil" my payback? Don't make me get DG! LoL :)

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  101. Add to Fulford post above:

    "According to them, over 100 countries have now subscribed to the new system. Mass arrests of people linked to the old system are supposed to begin by November 15, they say."

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  102. This 75sma is giving gold a hard time again, im going to take off the futures until it rips through this brick wall.

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  103. Fed is going to backstop this Euro mess, tis why the dollar aint going 2008 on yo behinds.

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  104. Thanks for your helpnMiyagi-san!

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  105. Danno,

    That lower trendline of the wedge is about to face the bull.

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  106. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. WW,
    The trendline can be penetrated (to the upside) and still remain valid.

    http://thepatternsite.com/pullbacks.html

    But I'm certainly no expert!

    SD,
    Yes, my understanding is that a 'Pullback' will put in a higher price, maybe even a price that is above the broken trendline.

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  109. Gary, for the life of me I still think cycles are messed up, but despite that you somehow use them and make great calls. Well done.

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  110. Hey WW would you mind if I emailed you with a few questions?

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  111. The question in my mind is, even if my goofy, pennant/rising wedge 'pullback' theory is correct... at what point do you declare a pullback to no longer be a pullback, but a new trend? Hmm...

    I think I will watch the dollar for clues. If I see any signs of the dollar bottoming and that happens on coincide with gold weakness near or above the broken trendline then I will lighten up my PM long positions. May not short this time though. Then again, crazy is as crazy does!

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  112. Maybe the cycles ran short this time because there was no QE and the cycles kind of reset themselves?

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  113. /dx finally, finally, FINALLY hit its 1597 hourly MA and rallied hard.

    now.. does it matter? probably more for stocks than gold.

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  114. bought a (very) few jan 22 uup calls at about the same paid for them in august

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  115. St Deluise,

    Why is 1597 hourly MA siginificant?

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  116. haha i know it seems just like some arbitrary number but it's the next fibonacci prime number beyond 233

    i essentially only use the 89/233/1597.

    it being a fib number isn't really as significant as it being a prime number imo. best way to get a pure discretized interval, in lieu of something like 100 which could be twice 50, or half 200, or 10x 20..

    anyway i am a crazy person, so

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  117. XG getting smashed, I think b/c Kirchner in Argentina changing some rules for mining companies and how they repatriate profits. I don't have the full story yet.

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  118. weekly chart ng seems to be safer than xg

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  119. Here we go, for those interested:

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/10/26/argentina-orders-oil-gas-mining-firms-to-repatriate-export-sales/

    Doesn't change a thing for me, but others might feel differently.

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  120. I'm gonna press with the SSO short I have left, perhaps even add some back into a rally. We'll see.

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  121. SB thats a good move, and Id join you on that trade if I had any equity left :)

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  122. Dumped 1/2 my long position. Something doesn't feel right. Dollar crazy. Will wait and see. Not shorting though.

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  123. "There seems to be a misunderstanding in the gold market that when you buy or sell shares of GLD you are putting pressure on the price of gold. That selling shares of GLD into the exchange is somehow analogous to selling physical into the marketplace. Or that buying shares of GLD is somehow, somewhere down the chain, removing physical gold from the marketplace."

    "We often look at apparent correlation and assume a certain cause and effect. GLD is designed to track the price of gold. It is not actively managed to track the price of gold. Instead, it does so through opportunities that arise whenever it doesn't. Imagine GLD as a big lump of gold just sitting there in Town Square. The price of gold is "discovered" elsewhere and shares in this big lump just trade based on that elsewhere-discovered price. If the share price is too high, then an opportunity exists to sell your share and buy "gold" elsewhere. Likewise, if it is too low, there is an opportunity to sell elsewhere and buy into this lump on display."

    "Occasionally, lately, someone comes along and shaves a chunk off of the lump, reducing its overall size. And financial reporters and analysts everywhere are struggling to correlate the price of gold and the GLD holdings with some semblance of cause and effect:"

    The above is from a great piece on GLD from FOFOA:

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html

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  124. any reason GDXJ isn't rallying harder these last few days?

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  125. Hmm. I think its safe to say the dollars move today might be full of crap.

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  126. I think the top is in on the Euro.

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  127. I just added back some SSO short. Be back before the close.

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  128. Global Quantitative Easing 1 is here, currencies will fluctuate amongst themselves while they all go down vs tangible assets. Gold spiking across all fiat. Gold-Dollar decoupling is accelerating.

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  129. Agreed Poly.
    Looks like Europe has decided that inflating away the debt problem will be the answer. Should strengthen $ but probably won't in short to medium term (that will happen later I guess when balance of payments start to matter again).
    Anyway, looks like Gold knows this and will strengthen vs all currencies. So I'll ride this IT with gold and some silver. Was going to use GDX but feel the weight of equity mkt could hinder it.
    We'll see.

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  130. Ver,

    No problem :)

    FromRips2returns@aol.com

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  131. Euro summit ended, yet recycling old rumors seems to keep the Euro afloat. I think its time is up. Sooner than later, it will head down.

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  132. Aaron:

    I've been watching and waiting with you. I think there's one more push up for stocks and the euro to tag/breach their 200-day SMAs and draw in everyone who thinks we've come past the point of breakdown.

    Cycle timing dictates an imminent move into a half-cycle low while the dollar moves out of it's cycle low.

    $BPSPX is now nearly at the same level as the SPX top in July (may even exceed it after today's action).

    230M SoS on SPY today, the second or third in a week.

    I wish I wasn't so bad at shorting.

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  133. Ver, very good points. However, I think that today was it for the Euro, I think its top is in at 13960ish... we shall see.

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  134. Damn this dollar is really pathetic.PO

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  135. Added to my SSO short at 4pm, price $45.60 with total risk at 1% of assets.

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  136. SB,

    Thanks for your posts... are you on Twitter by chance?

    Michael

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  137. got a weak buy signal for /es towards the end, target 1252.75 stop 1226.5. short signal did end up hitting this morning at 1220.

    if they run it straight to the 233 day (or 200, etc- around 1265) in the next few days that would be very bearish imo since there we don't have the buy volume to confirm that move right now. will try another short then.

    BUT, and this is just me thinking aloud, if i were were a federal reserve chairman i would wait for price to get just below it, then on the first decent down day announce some sort of big new operation over the weekend and watch the sparks fly monday morning. getting price above that 200, even via cheating, would be huge.

    otherwise/tangetially gold rally still looks good. definitely more buyers today at least.

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  138. Hey, all. When is AGQ going 3x? I am holding SLV and GDX in my trading account, thinking of shedding SLV and GDX in my IRA's for AGQ and NUGT. But, 3x ETF on silver sounds death-wishy. Any thoughts from the wise ones who inhabit this place?

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  139. Kal;

    there are 3x etn's for gold and silver already. However, they are pretty new. USLV and UGLD

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  140. I guess I was hoping for a 2x ETF, like they had, back in like, 2010? Haha. I guess soon we'll have 4x if they can figure out a way to put that through.

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