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Thursday, October 6, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

293 comments:

  1. new spy system buy: 117.2 stop 114.4

    but i'm going to wait for a bit of a retrace first. hopefully gets down to 115 to add.

    gold is not keeping the pace here at all.

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  2. Bullish price flip in the SP futures confirming the DeMark DAILY Buy Signal from last week. Also being confirmed in the other indices - this rally should be different than the previous ones as selling exhaustion was achieved and we are out of the May-September selling window.

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  4. Gold BB is now nicely squeezed on the 1-hour chart... waiting impatiently to see in which direction the breakout in the next hours will be.

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  5. Guys, like at the 5 minute chart in eur/usd. If the eur doesn't break to the upside on this triangle it could get very ugly.

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  6. Selling coming in any second now.

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  7. Eur looking weak. It's not looking good

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  8. What's going on with the comment system?

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  9. I was hoping copper would tag $2.85 before turning higher. It still might, but looking more like it's turned the corner.

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  10. Cab anyone here share the good/bad/ugly on CEF, as a fund/vehicle? I know it's a mix of silver and gold but I'm wondering if there are any tax considerations or other caveats about it's performance relative to GLD and SLV.

    Thanks!

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  11. Danno,

    I am al for calling slime balls, slime balls, buy to refer to Jim Sinclair and Trader Dan as such, has me wondering if you have ever read their work. Jim Sinclair has never recommended anyone but professionals trade gold. He advocates buying and holding physical only. Therefore there is " no trade" that could go against him. Trader Dan provides commentary on mostly on PM's, pm stocks and commodities. I have never read once any position he has taken. I have never read once where advocated anyone take any position on anything. I am quite confident in saying Jim Sinclair knows more about the inner workings on the Crimex and LBMA than you. Using their commentary as trading advice is your mistake.

    Lastly you can ignore Gary's on the latest position, however, you must realize why this blog is called the Smart Money Tracker. You and I and everyone else on this blog are not the Smart money in the Pm market. If the smart money is telling us something, best to listen.

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  12. SB,

    Copper up with increased margin. Nice.

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  13. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=h1

    silver & copper , not gold

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  14. AAPL just turned and went red. Steve Jobs's death has saddened me, 56 is too young and to know that it is coming for a few years must be crazy.

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  15. Natanarchist ,

    As the person who posted Norcini's comments I agree with you 100% .These guys know more about trading than Danno will ever know in his lifetime--just seems like sour grapes to me ---

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  16. RIP Steve. An amazing guy, one of the best inventors of our time.

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  17. Gold, silver and spy all losing momentum. Gold might close in the red.

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  18. Joseph,

    Nothings wrong with the comment system. The system simply identified you as a spammer because you post too much nonsense.

    Am glad the vast majority of discussions now take place on the subscribers forum.

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  19. Natanarchist,
    I am not ignoring Gary's advice. Quite the contrary.

    Jim Sinclair is scum. Total scum and so is his lap dog Dan whatshisface. Yes, I have read Sinclair's blog since 2004 and I have seen him screw his followers over with idiotic promises of exact price targets with exact dates. Impossible promises that no one should ever attempt to make. I could go on but those two clowns are not worth the press of another key.

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  20. " Natanarchist said...
    SB,

    Copper up with increased margin. Nice."

    how do you play copper?

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  21. Markets feel a little toppy here. Maybe it is the lunchtime thingy.

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  22. Looks like the 10sma may hold, if gold closes above the 10sma on a daily im long futures with a stop below the 10sma.

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  23. Mr M,

    It feels like it indeed, but with this market, we never know...It felt like the end of the world on Tuesday 20 minutes before the bell...

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  24. Miyagi,

    Definitely, looking to take off the UPRO today, see what happens tomorrow, we get a decent pullback I will put it back on.

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  25. the 20sma on the SPX is around the 1160 handle, bit of resistance.

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  26. 1154 of the /ES broke down from a double top.

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  27. WW,

    You kicked you-know-what with that UPRO entry the other day!

    Wish I had had the fortitude to hang on...if you ever decide to teach a charting class, I'll be the first to register.

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  28. Oa9200,

    I don't trade copper. I just watch it. Usually if copper is going up, PM's are up.

    Danno, you may have read Sinclair since, '04, but clearly you don't understand what you are reading.
    1. Trader Dan has never " guaranteed anything, to anyone, with respect to price.

    2. Yes Jim Sinclair has called out price targets and even put his money where his mouth was with his 1650 Gold call by Jan. 11 2011. Now he made the call in '06. So if you followed his advice since then, buying physical only regularly on dips, one would be up Huge, I know my physical is up huge.

    No, me thinks you tried to trade based on FREE commentary and it didn't work out to well for you, so you are blaming anyone but yourself. Next time maybe follow John Nadler FREE commentary. Haha. Think for yourself and take responsibility for your actions.

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  29. Vonda,

    :)


    Looks like the /ES wants to take another shot at breaking 1154.75

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  30. Gold starting to catch fire now.

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  31. Just checked, and Sprott's physical silver trust has traded at roughly a 20%+ premium to net asset value for many months now.

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  32. W2,
    I feel a upro sell coming on!!

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  33. Natanarchist,
    You have no idea what you are talking about. Do yourself a favor and drop it.

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  34. 86,

    Yeah, watching to see how this triple top in the /ES plays out.

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  35. spy is right there without near the money flow it had earlier. I bet it makes it. We`ll see.

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  36. Now that`s what I`m talkin` about; show me the money Dawg!!

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  37. SPY tagged the 20dma. Let's see if it continues up or this is the resistance line.

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  38. Sorry, correction from earlier post...long Silver futures, not gold.

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  39. By the way the RUT did the same thing.

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  40. Took off the UPRO at a tag of the 20sma in SPX.

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  41. Danno, I know exactly what I am talking about and you can't back up your comments. You can call JS and Trader Dan anything you want, but your reason,s are nothing but fallacies and anyone who has read JS mindset knows exactly what JS tells readers to do. Buy physical. Obviously, you didn't listen. Your hedging strategy in paper gold/ silver must not be working out, That strategy is 100% contrary to everything JS advocates. Bu you have been reading him for 7 years.

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  42. As I mentioned in an earlier post I thought the 20sma on SPX would offer some resistance.

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  43. It appears as though spy is in a rut.

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  44. Natanarchist,
    Jim Sinclair made a prediction about midway through some year. I forget exactly what year. It was maybe 2007. He said that gold would hit a certain number by that coming January. He was so confident that he 'promised' the loyal followers that gold would surpass the number by January. His exact words were, "I promise you." His exact words. Of course then he covered his rear by scolding his readers not to attempt anything foolish like taking on additional risk. Well, of course many, many of his readers could not resist taking on additional risk when the guru they worshiped made them such an incredible promise. Of course you can guess what happened. Gold came nowhere near Sinclair's number by January. Not even close. His prediction and promise was a total and complete fail. So what did he do? Come January did he admit he was wrong? Of course not. He simply 'forgot' that he had ever said anything. And this enraged his followers. I was one of the lucky ones. I was already committed to a long term trade and did not even have the opportunity to trade based on Sinclair's promise. But when I saw what had happened and heard the Sinclair was getting **death threats** I emailed him and asked him why he did not just come clean and apologize to calm the water. No response. So I asked 'trader' Dan. Oh, did I receive a response. I receive an email so laced with hate and foul language I was completely taken aback. Clearly he had been inundated by hysterical followers. And all this could have been avoided had Sinclair's legendary pride not caused him to do something foolish that hurt a lot of people. Believe what you want to believe. That is all I have to say about those two clowns.

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  45. He predicted 1650$ by January 24th (I think).

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  46. Nice to get some revenge on AGQ as it hurt me some this past Spring.
    Anyone know why silver is moving while gold is not?

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  47. Danno,

    Sinclair made the "1650 by Jan 11 2011" in 2006. He offered a million dollars to anyone who wanted to challenge that call. No one took his offer. He never backed off that call. He never pretended he didn't make that call. So he was off by 6 months from a call made 5 years earlier. Big deal. He didn't tell you to trade on that call did he? He didn't tell you to use leverage. He didn't tell you to buy paper gold ETF. No he advocated buy and hold physical. And anyone who followed his words has been well rewarded. That is all that matters. And one got that simple advice for free. If you can post JS advocating anything but buying physical gold, please post the date he wrote something to the contrary.

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  48. That's it for me for today. Up 5% this week so far, gotta go paint now.

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  49. Enough said.

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2010/12/30/jsminesets-track-record/

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  50. Natanarchist,
    Once again you are totally clueless. You don't even know what year I am talking about. It was way before his more recent predictions.

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  51. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  52. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  53. She`s gone man. I think mine was a few cents lower than yours, but, after all, your The Man, and I`m just trying to keep up!! I dumped on that last bounce, but somehow I still have a feeling it`s going to blow through before close. Bounced off that same level 4 times today and still hanging, lurking.......

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  54. at ease,

    Yeah, silver futures for now. Silver looks a bit too stretched below the 150sma to me, even if gold decides to bounce around for a bit I think silver wants to move out of this coil back up to the 150sma.

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  55. 86,

    We should still have a good entry tomorrow to put it back on.

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  56. Out of spy and Qs into the silver mines now!

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  57. Danno and Nat,
    Enough already. None of us here want to listen to the two of you squabble like a couple of women.

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  58. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  59. 86,

    See if we get a pullback to around the 10sma tomorrow, maybe even 1120SPX.

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  60. Danno,
    You wrote. " Jim Sinclair made a prediction about midway through some year. I forget exactly what year. It was maybe 2007. He said that gold would hit a certain number by that coming January."

    That is not correct. The calls was exactly as I said it was:
    Gold will trade at 1650 or above by Jan 11 2011. The call was made in 2006. And again contrary to your claim, he never backed off the call.

    Did you not read the link I posted. Trader Dan confirms that JS made the 1650 call 5 years earlier. So sorry pal, you are wrong. But you can still think he is bad guy or slime ball, but at least get his words right, especially if you read him everyday.

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  61. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  62. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  63. W2,
    Second time in 2 days I`ve been to the well. We`ll see, but I`m learning it doesn`t really pay to get too greedy.

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  64. Natanarchist,
    Please stop already. I know the numbers and predictions you are referring to. You simply were not around the year that Jim made his total fail call. If I can dig up the details I will post them here.

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  65. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  66. W2,
    That might be worthwhile. Starting to form up a nice bear flag now. Every day is a new oportunity. Some where...........

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  67. If I remember correctly, I believe it was the Summer of 2007 that Sinclair promised gold would hit $1200 by January 2008.

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  68. Ckpc. Ignore my posts. However, I choose not to let danno make false statements so newbie folks don't act on his words like he knows what he is talking about.

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  69. guys

    I was looking the 5 minute chart on the SPY, and there was a huge red candle at like 310.....was that another fat finger moment, I was using the charts from my scottrade account, just curious if anyone else sees that

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  70. Natanarchist,
    Okay pal. You need to start watching your mouth now. I am not in any way, shape or form lying or exaggerating. You clearly have not been in the gold game very long. That's it. I'm done. Good luck in your trades.

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  71. 86,

    I believe we are going to see a decent bear market rally and the bottom is in, the only reason I took off the UPRO today is because I would like to see if the market sells off with the jobs number tomorrow, regardless I will be putting it back on tomorrow.

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  72. I'm not familiar enough with Jim Sinclair, but from what I've read he seems to have been solidly long a secular bull market. Nothing wrong with that, even if he does miss a specific target by $100-$200 here and there. Did he recommend people sell at that target, or was it meant as a place to expect gold to consolidate?

    He's done very well being long gold with conviction. Just lately, it can't be easy watching his TRX get cut in half while staying focused on the bigger picture.

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  73. Wow. Now you now where I was in 2007? Or Amy year prior to that? Once again, taking your mouth for walk before putting your brain into gear.

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  74. Does Gary have a hot hand lately or what? :)

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  75. One thing for sure, I'd rather take J Sinclair's advice than Tim Knight. :)

    And before anybody gets their panties bunched up, I like Tim and think he'd be fun at parties. I just wouldn't put any money in his ideas.

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  76. Gary is the man! He is ducking these market swings like 'Prettyboy' Floyd Mayweather is ducking punches in the ring :P

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  77. W2,
    I hear you. Just when I start hearing about banks getting shut down, euro down, dollar up, etc, well, let`s just see. Look at upro now. I thought you were usually trading tqqq?

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  78. 86,

    I do usually trade the Q's but I think we may see some weakness in the tech sector on the way up.

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  79. putting on some spxu here is kind of ballsy. I guess that`s why your the man :)

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  80. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  81. "William Wallace said...
    Took off the UPRO at a tag of the 20sma in SP"

    ww
    why take off? ICL is in.

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  82. The advantage of being in a bull market is that even if it corrects, it eventually goes back up again. As long as one holds rather than sells on big dips, you don't lose.

    I like Sinclair, and have put a lot of faith in his recommendations, all of which are doing great.

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  83. the gazmatron is rolling with the punches for sure

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  84. W2,

    You are on fine, man! Well done...

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  85. Don't post much but like to thank SB, WW, Poly, and all. Went long gold futures last night. Was going to dump but feel better with others on board. WW you are getting e.s.p. like calls, cool.

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  86. Haggerty,
    I see no unusual activity at 3:10. Just a huge volume at the close.

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  87. WW,
    10sma on SPX is at 1145, depending on the job numbers (which I think will probably be "massaged") even if it goes down I don't think 1120 would be in play; mind you I would not mind seeing it at all.

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  88. Thanks riley, you're on the right side as long as you have a position size that will let you stay on the bull without doubting yourself and forcing an error such as selling weakness or taking profits too soon.

    Both errors are a function of trading over one's head, so to speak. Proper sizing lets one see straight no matter what comes their way.

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  89. I noticed AGQ is having a 2-1 split on the 13th. Anybody have any feelings on possible ramifications besides twice as many shares at half the price?

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  90. 86,
    Does AGQ have an affective date of owning to split?

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  91. Soros is a convicted felon, as discussed here before, and most likely in more ways than this:

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/063501c2-f02e-11e0-977b-00144feab49a.html

    This rat should be banned from trading as well as anything political. Old habits die hard, including cheating.

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  92. Miyagi,

    I did say 1120, im sorry I meant 1140 which is right below the 10sma at 1145. I'll take 1120 though, thats fine with me also :)

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  93. SB,
    If they banned all felonious rats from trading, being CEOs, sitting on boards and what have you it would be most of the bigshots (including presidents). That's how they get ahead, den of thieves.

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  94. WW,
    You are forgiven. I won't hold it against you.

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  95. Miyagi,

    Thanks for pointing that out sensei.

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  96. Info on AGQ split


    The split will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of the markets on October 10, 2011, payable after the close of the markets on October 12, 2011. The fund will trade at its post-split price on October 13, 2011. The ticker symbol and CUSIP number for the fund will not change.

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  97. So anyone buying AGQ on 10/11 and 10/12 better be out at the close or no extra shares for them. Am I reading that right?

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  98. WW, or anyone,
    Correct me if i am wrong but is that a bear flag I am beginning to see on SPY?
    Price going up on declining volume.

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  99. SF Giants,
    Wouldn't one want to hold the shares as they split with a less costly price more buyers come into the stock as silver rises?

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  100. Thanks S.B. have a core in pm's since 2009. On them until bull is over. Just trade the futures, been wary of late, finally pulled trigger when sentiment down and futures held above 1600. In at 1640, will wait and see. Like see push to 1720 but will let market speak.

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  101. I have observed that in almost all cases of stock splits the immediate result is a rise in the price; new buyers finding it "affordable".
    Then it returns to where it was, unless a move was warranted.

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  102. SF,
    if I`m understanding you correctly, yes. The, in effect ex-dividend date is the 10th. If you don`t own shares on or by the 10th, no extra little shares.

    At Ease, I was kind of wondering something along the same lines. I remember when they did that with Berkshire B shares; in essence to make them more affordable and saleable to Joe 6 pack. Or was it Joe the Plumber. Doesn`t matter I guess. After the 3 stooges got done with him, there was nothing left anyhow........

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  103. Mr M,
    That could just about work out too since we`re looking at the potential explosive move. But if it`s so explosive, how could you even tell?? Like which came first; the explosive egg or the splitting chicken?

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  104. Miyagi,

    Thats what it looks like, reason I put on the short at the close...but I think the bottom is in and im not putting too much weight on the declining volume. I would expect that the move out of a DCL would be on declining volume.

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  105. At ease

    if you buy AGQ on 10/11 or 10/12 and hold to the close, the price will drop 50% at the open on 10/13 and you won't have any extra shares.

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  106. Miyagi,

    Take a look at the majority of gold's move out of an ICL, on declining volume.

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  107. I'm seeing only 26 million, which is inconsequential IMO.

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  108. Yes it's a myth that rallies have to occur on rising volume. Most rallies may start with a few heavy days but then fade off to normal or declining volume.

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  109. 86/SF Giants,
    Just curious on the split, as I bought a small amount today. So if I want to keep my full shares before the split, have to be out by the 10th and until the 13th to have split shares.

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  110. As I mentioned a week or so ago, and pointed out today also, the 10sma is now swooping under gold on a daily and should support a move higher.

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  111. Miyagi
    Thanks for that, I had the chart on all day, when I came back to it towards the close I had a huge candle at that time. Must of just been my screen then

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  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  113. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  114. at ease,

    Yes that is a buying W2 swoop, I acted on it today when I bought Silver futures...note that the swoop only confirms a short term move higher and not necessarily a long term one, meaning gold could reverse in a few days and break back below the 10sma...if that occurs it is almost certain that we will see new lows.

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  115. W2,
    so how do we tell a W2 swoop from a regular swoop?

    At Ease,
    You have to be a share holder of record on the 10th to qualify for the split.

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  116. 86,

    This is actually a regular swoop, the ideal swoop is when the 10sma has a nice round bottom, is already turning up and pokes the bottom of the candle upward, which usually occurs off of a V bottom.

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  117. 86,

    BTW...those swoops almost never fail to break.

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  118. One thing I noticed is this rally is definitely climbing a wall of fear. Pretty much every blog and subscription I follow is either bearish or very cautious right now. This is really the only place where people are buying and staying positive. Honestly cant remember a time like this before. It's a really good sign IMO.

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  119. W2,
    Sorry man. I`m getting so tired, I really don`t follow. It will probably make great sense tomorrow. Thanks for the input. Tomorrow morning we can butt heads for the low upro :)

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  120. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  121. Dan,
    good point. Doc isn`t really buying it yet either. I feel like a cat on a hot tin roof.

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  122. LOL!! Because I can catch up tomorrow! Oh, that`s funny.....

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  123. Thanks you Gary...my bad...I looked at the wrong date

    bullish miners percent still at 13.33 - the lowest since the 2008 crash

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  124. At Ease,
    You don't need to worry about selling and reentering AGQ because of the stock split. The split is more of an issue for the custodian. Basically trades settle T+3 (trade date + 3 days), so if you purchase the stock on 10/10, then it's settled and credited to your account on 10/13. All they are saying is that the owner on record by 10/10 will be credited the additional shares from a bookkeeping perspective. People who purchase the stock on 10/11 and 10/12 won't have their account value cut in half because of the split. Everyone is made whole.

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  125. Gary is right about volume. Volume may have worked in the past, but in my opinion its usefulness is akin to that of the NFL combine since it lead to the drafting of Tom Brady in the 6th Round of the draft. Reading conventional volume bars now is a distraction imo. Keep it simple. The only volume that I utilize now in a complimentary capacity is that of OBV-On Balance Volume. It works well as a side by side with my linear regression time series forecast modeling. Use it to spot extremes on the particular timeframe that you happen to be trading on. When OBV hits the bottom of its scale look for opportunities to buy, when OBV hits the top look for opportunities to sell . Stay the course. If OBV has hit top scale and you see a selloff, with OBV moving down in conjunction, dont look to buy again ultimately until OBV tocuhes the bottom of it's scale particular to timeframe. In other words use OBV more like a sentiment indicator of extremes and I'll promise you'll have success.

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  126. With the recent spike in volatility in both directions, I have decided not to get involved with any leveraged etfs. I'm not saying we see '08 type moves again, but if we do, these etfs could be widowmakers once again.

    They put many traders out of business in '08, and with the heightened volatility I believe the 1x funds should offer enough opportunity while making it much easier to stay on the bull.

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  127. If silver sees another leg down it will most likely happen right about the time AGQ splits. I would not get my AGQ hopes too high just yet. Not saying don't buy it. Just be careful.

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  128. Not to mention that NUGT, AGQ, etc are only derivatives and definitely do NOT own the underlying assets they are supposed to track.

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  129. Besides, one could just buy twice as many shares of SLV if they want leverage.

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  130. The best way to leverage is utilize options that partake in the CBOEs penny pilot program only. I wont touch any other types of options. I love penny pilot. Bid asks spreads on options as tight as bid ask spreads on blue chip stocks. It's nice not getting screwed right out of the gate. And yes SLV is part of the penny pilot program I believe.

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  131. Well, ZSL (double short silver) was certainly a dog even under ideal conditions. Once a person is 100% convinced silver has bottomed ZSL could be a spectacular short trade.

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  132. You won't be able to borrow shares.

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  133. I suppose you could sell naked calls or buy puts but I'm not a big fan of either.

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  134. Anthony,

    I am intrigued by your OBV/Linear Regression analysis. Any chance you can elaborate a little? Do you view OBV on a daily? Does this work for futures? What parameters are you using for Linear Regression? Thanks, I appreciate it.

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  135. Yep, no manipulation going on..at all. From Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Daily..."Riddle me this...

    CME margin for 1 silver contract: $24,975

    CME margin for 1 gold contract: $11,475

    CME margin for 1 basket of insolvent too-big-to-fail banks: $3,500

    How about this...The criminals at the CME set the table for JPM to get out of their illegal naked short positions in gold and silver while at the same time suck as many fools into buying the banksters garbage and the entire time the CFTC ignores the crime in progress. How special!"

    My sentiments exactly

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  136. That one's easy. Silver is many times more volatile than either gold or banks. Not to mention you can't buy futures on banks.

    It amazes me the nonsensical information people will come up with to prove an erroneous assumption.

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  137. Everything just popped thanks to the NFP.

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  138. Damn Gary,
    You did find a crystal ball, didn`t you? Nice call.

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  139. still long spy (and short gold, unforunately)

    will exit spy at 117.4 per model. there's got to be SOME pullback right? sheesh.

    holding gold short until i see people buy it which absolutely has not happened since august. will add to it at 1681 if it can tap it this morning. uncle point 1720.

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  140. actually screw it just left now in premarket. 117.57.

    getting the feeling we see a gap and crap today.

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  141. Anthony,

    I am unfamiliar with the penny pilot program in options, but would think it's the exchange asking market makers (bookies) to tighten up the spread so options look more attractive to retail customers. Yet the market is the market, only created by legitimate bids and offers, regardless of how the specialist paints it.

    For example, say a call is has real buyers in size bid at $1, and people willing to sell at $2. The exchanges penny program has the specialist keep a penny spread anywhere in between, maybe he shows his book as $1.90-1.91 making retail bidders feel comfortable to buy. One buys at $1.91 thinking there is a bid at $1.90 but that is only the specialist playing hocus pocus b/c he knows the legitimate bids are .90 lower at $1.00 which is where a customer is likely to get filled if they wanted out.

    Seems to me it's likely another way to mislead retail folks. Like I said, I don't know enough about the program, but options in general are a suckers bet even for those that make money. The ones that make money in options (especially buying) have success because they are timing the underlying vehicle well enough that they still get to keep some profit after getting skimmed, but they are getting a hatchet job nonetheless.

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  142. Shalom,

    http://www.marketswiki.com/mwiki/Penny_Pilot_Program




    Here is some info. Believe it or not the SEC did it to help retail. Of course the CBOE doesnt like it so Im sure it wont be around much longer but I've found it to be quite beneficial..

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  143. Thanks for the link, I'll give it a read.

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  144. Silver demand is quite high. The only way the paper silver shorts will be able to get silver for delivery will be through higher prices.

    Gary, with respect to the margin rates. I think most people would agree that it makes sense for an exchange to protect itself from volatility with proper margins. However, as financial stocks were falling, the CME lowered margin rates. Yeah, that makes sense unless you want to increase speculation in bankrupt financials thereby creating the perception that all is well. But I am sure that's not the case and this is a normal practice.

    Now, why is it that the exchanges can not have preset increases/ decreases in margin as volatility of the stock or commodity swings in price? Wouldn 't that be more transparent and allow traders to know exactly when an increase is coming? Of course that would take away the element of surprise and control away from " unseen" forces.

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  145. It’s Remarkable





    If we Continue to Follow the 2007 Fractal of the Topping Process , I t should look like this:

    SPX Daily Chart 2007 / 2011 :

    http://screencast.com/t/K4pjQdKIbEwe

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  146. If the average range expands 10% over any week, raise margins 10% on the index and vice versa, no matter what the vehicle.

    Making it a stated policy would go a long way towards addressing manipulation accusations.

    Bottom line is the directors can change the rules and often get in front of the change to enrich themselves. Look into the Hunt brothers and who made billions while driving the Hunts to bankruptcy.

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  147. Gann360,

    Thank you for sharing your charts!
    BTW, do you have a website?

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  148. Gann,
    Big thanks for the update. Pretty amazing stuff!! It would be nice to see you drop by a little more often :)

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  149. Nice work Gann. Seems to fit with Gary's expectations as well.

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  150. Natanarchist,
    To say there is no manipulation in the gold/silver markets at this point is just ridiculous, sorry Gary .Maybe someone could explain to me why most of the selling takes place at 3A.M.-
    They will attack gold every day, no matter what. Some days they succeed, some they fail.
    All markets are manipulated and gold and silver are no different.

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  151. Sophia

    I have a Twitter Page ,I'm : Gann360

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  152. Thanks Gann360, I am not on Twitter, so I will look into that this weekend...

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  153. Gann,

    I have been pointing out for months that it looks that things seem to be playing out very similar to 08.

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  154. 3AM is when the european markets open.

    obviously people are going to belive what they want. if you really think these metals are manipulated why are you trading them?

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  155. also, jumping the gun and adding to gold shorts here.

    evil cartel don't let me down!

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  156. 1227 SPX is around the 75 day moving average. I think we may see a rally up to the 150dma, the 200 might be pushing it.

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  157. St Deluise,

    That's an easy question, b/c I still manage to make money. It doesn't matter if the horse race is fixed as long as you know what horse to bet.

    For example, use margin hikes that smash metals as an opportunity to buy, rather than being forced to sell.

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  158. And just because manipulation exists does not mean everything is entirely rigged. The majority of the game is real.

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  159. NP.

    Hopefully this 2007/2011 Fractal will be a Road Map,For what to expect,for the next 12 Month.

    Remember nothing is 100%.

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  160. "Maybe someone could explain to me why most of the selling takes place at 3A.M."

    A big player is taking advantage of the low volume to push the market in a direction most likely to set off stops...happens all the time in the currency markets. This is not manipulation! If you had a big enough account that you could set off stops you would do it too. It is an easy way to make money.

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  161. Robert,
    All markets are manipulated to some extent in the short term but no one can affect the secular trend. Any attempt to do so will just accelerate the rise because it will create artificially low prices and shortages. Shortages ultimately lead to much higher prices faster than would occur normally.

    The conspiracy bugs apparently don't understand how the laws of supply and demand work.

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  162. SB, you're exempted of course. you're a man on a mission!

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  163. Gary,

    I agree with you --it drives the price down and causes more buying at a lower price . Over the course of the eleven year PM bull market, gold is actually DOWN in COMEX trading hours on a cumulative basis. Think about it – gold rose from $250 in 2000 to $1,900 in 2011, with the great majority of VOLUME trading on the COMEX, yet gold is DOWN in New York trading hours, and obviously UP dramatically in Asia, where PHYSICAL, not PAPER gold is being transacted .My point being the comex is about as corrupt as a market can be

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  164. WW,

    What are you going to do with your UPRO trade? Are you going to put it back on?

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  165. Thanks 86/PST/SF fan for AGQ split info.

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  166. The more charts I examine, the more silver and silver miners are looking like the best vehicles for the next larger move (many months). I'm not the best at interpreting charts, that's why I subscribe to Gary, but this last 6 months has done a lot to consolidate silver's 300% runup from late 2010.

    I'm not saying silver can't drop to the mid 20's again before making the huge move higher, but the upside significantly outweighs a possible downside of 15% at most.

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  167. Robert,
    While I don't buy it, if it's true, then you should thank them as they are making you more money faster than would have occurred naturally.

    Now if you are trying to trade short term swings based on YOUR interpretation of where price SHOULD BE then maybe you are getting screwed. But then again trying to force the market to move to ones own personal expectations never has been a very profitable strategy.

    If you are worried about short term manipulation you can easily defeat it and profit from it by just holding long term and quit trying to trade short term swings.

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  168. PM stocks relative performance today not very impressive. Profit taking already, after just two up days? Hmm...

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  169. It's normal for two strong up days to have a consolidation day as short term traders take profits.

    Folks we should now be in a period where there's just nothing to do for the next 4-15 weeks.

    Get out of the house and go enjoy your life for a while.

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  170. Elaine,
    W2 is sequestered away in his cave regarding his upro trade. Personally I will start to add back in if I can get it under 49. Hope this helps.

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  171. Elaine,

    Yes...waiting for a tag of the 10sma on the SPX to take take off the SPXU and put the UPRO back on.

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  172. Gary, would today be a good day to add if you didn't get fully into positions?

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  173. Hey Cave Dweller,
    your talking the 10sma daily, 5 min? What flavor??

    ReplyDelete

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