Gary, I always imagined you as a lot taller. You usually have a mountain or something in the background of your pictures so I guess it throws off the scale of things ;P
Cheers to everyone who made it out there! Hope you're enjoying the exchange rate... *muffled laughter*
Gann, Check out the GLD daily. It looks like a break out to the downside of a rising wedge. The breakout appears to have occurred on Friday. I wish I could post a chart but my connections been down since Friday. The iphone is all I got. I would really appreciate your thoughts on it. I'm still new to TA so your input would be greatly appreciated.
Gary, Great weekend report! Sounds like we are well positioned to make money on this market downturn. Thanks for your work especially while on your vacation. Hope you have all have a safe return home.
Just started exploring the site and am a big fan. I have a general question from the gold side - do the members and Gary prefer investing in Physical vs. Paper/ETFs when investing in gold?
It depends on how emotional you are. You can get the same percentage returns with much smaller slippage and commissions by just purchasing SLV or GLD. However if you are one of those people who watches every tick in their account and are prone to sell at bottoms and buy tops then physical is the way to go.
Physical will eliminate the emotions from your investment.
At some point if it looks like we are going to hyper-inflate then we will all go to physical. But that's several years down the road and not a consideration at the moment.
Gary, I hope you will signal well in advance when its time to go physical. I worry a little about that. I hope you are having a nice time in Switzerland. Looks like you have a nice group there :o)
Miyagisan, nice picture. I took me at least a minute to figure out which was Gary. LOL! Hope there are no pictures of me floating around from back then.
I'm not sure a small sample of trading bloggers laying out the case for a possible bounce makes for a good contrarian sell signal. Oversold markets can certainly get more oversold, but I wonder if the risk/reward favors a new short here.
I think it was DG who said if I start counting gain, then it's time to get out, so if I want to sell to keep my gain, then just stay in to be contrarian? Alex Mont, I have been toying about getting out too... Maybe at 1250 SnP?
Best wishes to all in Switzerland at the moment, that scenery looks amazing. Enjoy.
Gary
If you are around.... after the pullback in silver you mentioned you were of the opinion it was done for a couple of years but now we've had time to reflect I would pose the following scenario.
The expected C wave blow-off top in gold didn't occur because the hot money followed silver instead. As a result the severe regression to the mean D wave will likely be reflected more in silver than in gold as you have suggested several times and seeme reasonable. If the A wave is a reaction to the severe D wave pullback, is there a reason we can't see this reaction reflected in silver instead of gold.
IE: small D wave regression in gold / small A wave bounce in gold ; large D wave regression in silver / large A wave bounce in silver.
Gary, It appears as though your point on Friday to avoid the financials because they were a protected sector was pretty timely. Just as selling in the financials was gaining momentum and the bank stocks were off over 2%, CNBC announced that the Fed was lowering the bank capital surcharge from 3% to 2.0-2.5%.
Per ZH, "Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more…probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate…but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day."
While the sector still finished lower on the day, I'll likely close my position in FAZ on Monday since I don't want exposure through the 3x ETFs. A better strategy will be to just target individual bank stocks that had large reserve releases in 2010 and 2011 (inflating earnings) , and will therefore need to re-reserve for larger loan losses as real estate rolls back over.
Gary, I read the weekend report and follow your logic, but wanted to get your thoughts on another possible scenario. Every article on technical analysis that I read on Friday seems to expect the S&P to correct to the 1250 level and it doesn't seem like buyers will be willing to step in until that point. Can you envision a scenario where we get a quick flush to that level early this week? If that does happen, what would you then expect to happen around the timing band for the half cycle low? Thanks
Another thing, I have asked this question a couple of days ago but nobody seemed to have an answer, so im asking the boss now.
I am beginning to grasp everything pertaining to cycles but still confused as to how do you know when a cycle has begun or ended. What candlesticks determine where you place your red and blue arrows on the cycle count charts?
Gary, thanks alot for all your hard work even though you are on vacation, your amazing my friend.
DEspite the long term trend likely being down, I will lighten my shorts early this week if we get significant weakness. Will likely unload my 2x inverse ETFs SDS and DUG, and will hang on to my SLV OCT 32 puts, which are only risking 1.5% of portfolio value.
I suspect there will be a meaningful bounce soon, and will take advantage of that, if it manifests to reload short positions.
bear markets are volatile events, when I acrue a decent profit, I take it and wait for the next oppty to drop in for another high odds low risk trade.
Question for you – given our bias for a rising $$$, why are you choosing EUO over UUP? Does it matter going long one or the other? Pros and Cons of each?
Hi, just looking at the model portfolio and if the dollar has bottomed, wouldn't it be a good time to at least be in something like UUP or an inverse ETF on another currency like the Euro? Thanks
A nice little bounce (weak) in the snp to clear out oversold and sentiment readings. I hope we dont get any capitulation down days for a while. Id rather see a nice controlled sell off. Same for the Euro. Good stuff.
NJ: being long EUO and UUP is somewhat similar as EUO is mostly against the dollar. My conviction is stronger that the euro will go down against all currencies, however. Remember too that EUO is also a 2X ETF.
I am long TBT, at $32.88, now and feel good about all this talk about this showdown China vs. USA. Who will blink first - China revaluing her currency or USA defaulting on debt. I am in TBT to find out...
GL to all and thanks for sharing the pictures, Gary.
S&P futures in the green premarket this morning. Let's see if this bounce is on light volume today. Still think we won't bottom until we get a down day with the VIX spiking. We need some real fear to finish this thing off.
No, I'm not yet short bonds. When I do it'll be with futures as they're very liquid and I hate being long leveraged etfs, especially after we saw people be correct and still lose money on silver with the ZSL.
In total agreement. I sense a good flush coming on high volume for a short term reversal of a week or two to first sucker in new shorts and give smart money a chance to unload shorts and reposition long for a rally, then when shorts are scared and sentiment becomes more positive again, we begin our next leg down.
As stated above, I'll be covering my small short exposure into a drop. My best guess is we have a day that starts like today and weakens into the close (maybe today), followed by a gap down open. The gap down is my cue to get covered, and wait for the next oppty to short.
Golds multi-month uptrend line is currently sitting at around 1520 so if we break that level, it will be the final nail in the coffin that PMs are in big trouble.
Oil and EUO are the place to be, IMO, and will be for the entire bear leg. Nice they are taking turns (oil down big today, and the euro Friday). I agree with Fubsy that a gap down will lead to a bounce, but be careful not to loose your strong-hand status by over trading. You don't want to miss the next 1,000 points down. If you are not an especially disciplined trader just let the rally come and go and add to your shorts.
I was reading through Kitco's forums last night, a few threads were mentioning how silver auctions on ebay were slow, some not even catching bids until the last minute. Not the frenzied crazyness like there was in late April where a Maple ounce was selling for 60$.
Switzerland was great and we met many very interesting people. Sad though, that someone snitched my wifes camera on the trainride back to Zürich. And the worst was that the camera had pics from months back :(
Interesting move in the market now. Will this be the real daily cycle low, or was it the 2/6 adn we now have a failed daily cycle. I better just stay out of PM for a while and keep to short SP500 and dollar long.
Would be nice with some PM rally now, that I could short with options, but think I hope for too much. But who know, maybee my patience pays off.
Gold should find it's low next few days at around $1,500, but only for 3-7 days as the next cycle fails. Miners look to be WAY ahead of the decline, which to me suggests the next failed daily will be a slippery ride down the $1,400 pole for gold.
What determines whether or not a cycle fails? Being we are 7 days into this cycle, when you say "but only for 3-7 days as the next cycle fails" are you saying this cycle will only be 10-14 days?
Sorry, I was not clear. I don't consider the recent trend break, if you call it that, a cycle low for gold. I'm working off of May 5th as the last cycle low. We're still in the timing band where a more orthodox cycle low should be waited for. Once a cycle low is clearly printed, it will be violated THAT low that will constitute the cycle failure.
Seeing some relative strength in the PM stocks now. Doesn't necessarily mean we will bounce ASAP but if it holds up it will indicate we maybe due for a short term bounce.
Also not sure if anyone noticed but VIX is positive even though markets are up so fear is starting to build.
"So were 27 days into this cycle then if we look at it that way (may 5th low), correct?"
William, that sounds correct.
Remember though, it's somewhat irrelevant as the dominant and more important IT cycle low is looming large. Both daily cycle interpretations both end with a nice move down in the very near future.
DG, I finally have skin in the game with EUO. I bought a chunk earlier this morning and will add another chunk if it pulls back more. Just wondering if you have a stop in mind for EUO? For the others that also bought EUO, any mental stops?
I been enjoying your daily charts and appreciate it that you share it w/ everyone. Would you recommend any books for scalp trading? How do you know which tools to use for your trades. Would be interested in learning more. Thanks
the system i use for Scalping is a mixture of Gann and eastern. western TA,,, i count Candles/ i use Moving Averages/ Trendlines , and many other tools,,,
i made lots and Lost lots of money , to arrive where i am at today...i am not ! the Cowboy i was years ago... Today i take High Probability Trades ,,
my friends ask me all the time, if i could teach them, i tell them stay with what you know...this Arena will eat you alive...
As far as tools, there is no ,,,1 Tool to use,,,it's a marriage of many.
If GLD closes below 147.93 it will break a 5 and a half month trend line. I tried to post the chart but too much of a meathead to figure it out. There was a break of that line on 5/17 but GLD rallied to close well above that line.
Anybody use freestockcharts.com. maybe you ca walk me through how to post it?
As I ranted on Friday, maybe the little guy holdong GLD SLV sees no end to the drop now. Volume is about 30% more on SLV than on Friday, perhaps the exit gates will be open more tomorrow.
Thanks.. Now I know why your name is Gann lol.. I did a search on youtube and found the gann methodology quite interesting..I hope silver breaks below that trendline soon.
If you draw a trendline from the last intermediate cycle low on 1/28you see that gold bounced right off that trendline on 3/15, 5/5, 5/17 and broke below it today.
Volume comparisons on SLV are pointless now, IMO. Firstly, the averages have been badly skewed by the parabola and subsequent collapse. Volume on this baby will continue to decline all the way to the IT low as the remaining hopefuls clinging to the fantasy of an immediate retest off all time high's start capitulating. Interest is quickly disappearing.
Poly, I realize that and I take that into accound however skewed it may be. Still, as you said, interest is waning but there are still holders that probably will dump at a point and give up.
If you draw a trendline like I said from the 1/28 bottom, you'll see that it acted as support today also. Its possible that we get another bounce off it (I hope not),today was the third bounce off it.
Hag and Ryan: Sorry not to respond earlier, but I've been busy all day (I occasionally work for a living). I am not adding to EUO here. I like to add on strength and will wait for a new dollar up day, just in case this dollar dip is the start of something more. Today was my day to smile about oil instead. The last pieces for me will be silver puts after a rally as I am too light there. I am also looking to buy back the SKF I sold Friday.
DG, Thanks for the update, I never did have a position in EUO so I started mine today. So if I want to add, you recommend only adding in strength and not a pullback?
FWIW Turd finally turned bearish a few trading session ago and his post today indicates all trend lines are now broken. Its saying a lot considering hes been a permabull since his site started and blamed declines on conspiracy theories.
William Believe it or not my trend line was from 1/27 and those are the only breaks I have are one 5/17 and today. 5/17 finished above but today closed below.
Ryan. It's a tough choice. I tend to like to add on strength because the market's behavior is doing what I think it "should"." This raises your average cost, though. Buying on weakness means better prices but if you buy on the way down you can buy and buy...and then get killed if you are wrong. It is generally better to add on strength, but not more than 50% of your original stake. that is if you buy 500 of something, add 200 on strength. Then if it keeps going up, you can add on a pullback to support, when it gets to oversold, etc. Just don't get excited and add a lot on a run up. You will need to develop your own way, but whatever you do learn from your errors and analyze what went wrong. For myself I was so confident in the EUO play that I added as it dropped---just nothing excessive. Now I need to see more strength to be convinced this dip is just that---a dip.
Sorry I didn't respond sooner. I've been writing reports all day.
i'm looking to cover into a downward swoon. Today was farily neutral in the S&P. So, I remain short. It seems that shorts are pretty nervous as a group, that suggests to me there is more room to fall. Also, we're just heading into the middle range of the daily cycle, meaning if we do bounce it should roll over before too long and head into the DCL, especially given the left translated nature of this cycle.
So, I feel ok holdoing shorts here. I surely won't be adding now though. Any decent downdraft and I'll be back in cash and wating for a bounce to reverse in order to reenter.
Based on today's action in Gold, looks like we may have seen the intermediate peak 5-6 weeks back. Does this now qualify as a LT or RT intermediate cycle?
Also, if a LT intermediate, what are the implications going forward for the A wave, if any?
You are truely amazing! You just flew back half round the world and the first thing you do is write the newsletter!!! Thanks for being such a great person!
Welcome home. Your dedication is overwhelming, I am grateful to have you as a guide. Its amazing how much I have learned from you already, your an inspiration in many ways.
Gary, Will the shorted stocks cycle back down again? I am just wondering why you recommend selling shorts at a a loss instead when they are profitable status.
Gary, From the profits I held, I am way down opening today. As I said, I have profits, however not enough to make these trades just to cover broker fees. I didn't want to see into the open and will chance it will cycle down into the day. Thanks
Thanks, I bought SLV GLD puts prior to the model portfolio was implemented. Still hanging on as they are just bringing funds back in and I have time on my side then. Loss was already taken. :) Thanks.
Gary, I always imagined you as a lot taller. You usually have a mountain or something in the background of your pictures so I guess it throws off the scale of things ;P
ReplyDeleteCheers to everyone who made it out there! Hope you're enjoying the exchange rate... *muffled laughter*
Looks like a great time. I hope to make the trek one day but with 3 kids 4 and younger it's a bit difficult. Enjoy guys, you all look great.
ReplyDeleteGr8 pic! Enjoy the rest of your stay folks!
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteGann,
ReplyDeleteCheck out the GLD daily. It looks like a break out to the downside of a rising wedge. The breakout appears to have occurred on Friday. I wish I could post a chart but my connections been down since Friday. The iphone is all I got. I would really appreciate your thoughts on it. I'm still new to TA so your input would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks to all for your answers about Doc. I will sign up today.
ReplyDeleteGreat pix Gary! It seems that you are all enjoying it despite the weather
Great report Gary! I cannot believe that you are dedicated so much! Hope you have time to relax & enjoy Zermatt
ReplyDeleteHave one for us all and enjoy the rest of your time!
ReplyDeleteGann,
ReplyDeleteYou can shoot me a email if you want to instead.
wav.ridah@gmail.com
.
ReplyDeleteGary looks like a pimp with the umbrella / cane
ReplyDeleteBtw, the woman on the far left is beautiful
I wish I knew who I was looking at. Hope you enjoy yourselves.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Haggerty...anyone care to reveal themselves??
ReplyDeleteI agree-
ReplyDeleteThats a nice picture , and I feel like I may have even talked with some of you from here, but I have no idea who is who ( except Gary).
So If anyone wants to say , "Hi, I'm ___ and I am ( ) people to the right of Gary" or something, That'd be cool.
Rick, your comment cracked-me-up :)
It's a lovely picture. Have a nice time all
ReplyDeleteWhich one is Gary's friend Fergie?
ReplyDeleteGary, Great weekend report! Sounds like we are well positioned to make money on this market downturn. Thanks for your work especially while on your vacation.
ReplyDeleteHope you have all have a safe return home.
Thank for the picture Gary and the report while on vacation...
ReplyDeleteWav Ridah
ReplyDeleteHere IS the Daily GLD:
http://screencast.com/t/lZenoJdbVG8N
I wonder if Gary misses his 80's haircut.
ReplyDeleteHysterical
ReplyDeleteGood looking crew. Someday, perhaps I can join!
ReplyDeleteFergie is behind my right shoulder.
ReplyDeleteFrom left to right.
ReplyDeleteLisa, Christian, Susan, Olga, Mike, Ben, Fergie, me, Don, Mickey, Maryann, Irv, Sanjiv, Phillip, & Andre
Looks like fun, hopefully when my Iraq Dinar re-value I can go on vacation too.
ReplyDeleteJust Kidding:-)
Great photo!
ReplyDeleteSo nice to see live faces/real people behind the posts. Have a wonderful final week!!
Hope everyone's enjoying their weekend. Theres a great new post form the TSI trader for those of you who follow :
ReplyDeletehttp://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-silver-miners-stock-market-and-us.html
Very nice!
ReplyDeleteJames
First time post here,
ReplyDeleteJust started exploring the site and am a big fan. I have a general question from the gold side - do the members and Gary prefer investing in Physical vs. Paper/ETFs when investing in gold?
Thanks
Alas, not THIS Ben. Another time perhaps!
ReplyDeleteIt depends on how emotional you are. You can get the same percentage returns with much smaller slippage and commissions by just purchasing SLV or GLD. However if you are one of those people who watches every tick in their account and are prone to sell at bottoms and buy tops then physical is the way to go.
ReplyDeletePhysical will eliminate the emotions from your investment.
At some point if it looks like we are going to hyper-inflate then we will all go to physical. But that's several years down the road and not a consideration at the moment.
Gary, I hope you will signal well in advance when its time to go physical. I worry a little about that. I hope you are having a nice time in Switzerland. Looks like you have a nice group there :o)
ReplyDeleteMiyagisan, nice picture. I took me at least a minute to figure out which was Gary. LOL! Hope there are no pictures of me floating around from back then.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary,
ReplyDeleteThat confirmed my suspicions regarding the hyper-inflation fears which would (coincidentally?) coincide with your projected next C wave.
Thanks again.
Gann,
ReplyDeleteMahalo for the chart. I appreciate you posting your charting.
Thank you Gary for posting the great picture of you all. I see it as a group of smart people :)
ReplyDelete$HUI Gold Bug Index :
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/9rzP6qb8
Is Gary the guy with the hair?
ReplyDeleteIf the strenght lies in the hair he must have been really strong..
But my haircut was even worse than his..
Hello Lisa, Christian, Susan, Olga, Mike, Ben, Fergie, Don, Mickey, Maryann, Irv, Sanjiv, Phillip, and Andre.
ReplyDeleteNice to have some faces to go with the blog members names, I recognize; Fergie, Ben, Sanjiv.
So happy for you all to meet and greet and spend time with the man.
I know a lot of us would like to be there with you all.
Thanks Gary for sharing your adventures! I hope for many more to come and an opportunity to attend :)
Shorting the S&P 500
ReplyDeleteGary's weekend report: It won't be an "easy" decline.
Doc - Pointing out upside possibilty to be on safe side.
Tim Knight - will cover shorts and go long on Monday morning weakness.
Could be a concensus forming.
Gann,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great charts....
Alex,
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure a small sample of trading bloggers laying out the case for a possible bounce makes for a good contrarian sell signal. Oversold markets can certainly get more oversold, but I wonder if the risk/reward favors a new short here.
Some may be interested in this: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576381594196584726.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
ReplyDeleteI think it was DG who said if I start counting gain, then it's time to get out, so if I want to sell to keep my gain, then just stay in to be contrarian? Alex Mont, I have been toying about getting out too... Maybe at 1250 SnP?
ReplyDeleteBest wishes to all in Switzerland at the moment, that scenery looks amazing. Enjoy.
ReplyDeleteGary
If you are around.... after the pullback in silver you mentioned you were of the opinion it was done for a couple of years but now we've had time to reflect I would pose the following scenario.
The expected C wave blow-off top in gold didn't occur because the hot money followed silver instead. As a result the severe regression to the mean D wave will likely be reflected more in silver than in gold as you have suggested several times and seeme reasonable. If the A wave is a reaction to the severe D wave pullback, is there a reason we can't see this reaction reflected in silver instead of gold.
IE: small D wave regression in gold / small A wave bounce in gold ; large D wave regression in silver / large A wave bounce in silver.
I'd be interested in your opinion on this.
Thanks
great question slilverhound
ReplyDeleteGreat picture Gary .
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing .
Jake
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIt appears as though your point on Friday to avoid the financials because they were a protected sector was pretty timely. Just as selling in the financials was gaining momentum and the bank stocks were off over 2%, CNBC announced that the Fed was lowering the bank capital surcharge from 3% to 2.0-2.5%.
Per ZH, "Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more…probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate…but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day."
While the sector still finished lower on the day, I'll likely close my position in FAZ on Monday since I don't want exposure through the 3x ETFs. A better strategy will be to just target individual bank stocks that had large reserve releases in 2010 and 2011 (inflating earnings) , and will therefore need to re-reserve for larger loan losses as real estate rolls back over.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI read the weekend report and follow your logic, but wanted to get your thoughts on another possible scenario. Every article on technical analysis that I read on Friday seems to expect the S&P to correct to the 1250 level and it doesn't seem like buyers will be willing to step in until that point. Can you envision a scenario where we get a quick flush to that level early this week? If that does happen, what would you then expect to happen around the timing band for the half cycle low? Thanks
Silver Possible Trading Day Cycle Chart ;
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/6V5pVIWwAy1
Gann,
ReplyDeletepretty incredible on the silver chart. Thanks for all the charts you post; they`re great!
Mr. Miyagi,
ReplyDeleteLove the 80's Gary!
I think Gary has the last laugh here as he still has a great head of hair.
Minus the perm, of course :-)
I still have my hair
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteNow thats a crew. I want in!
Another thing, I have asked this question a couple of days ago but nobody seemed to have an answer, so im asking the boss now.
I am beginning to grasp everything pertaining to cycles but still confused as to how do you know when a cycle has begun or ended. What candlesticks determine where you place your red and blue arrows on the cycle count charts?
Gary, thanks alot for all your hard work even though you are on vacation, your amazing my friend.
Doc uses a break of the trendline as confirmation. That seems to work most of the time.
ReplyDeleteAlright Eamonn,
ReplyDeletePony up, let's see your fabulous locks.
Mighty, I think its better that I give that a miss *muffled cough*
ReplyDeleteDEspite the long term trend likely being down, I will lighten my shorts early this week if we get significant weakness. Will likely unload my 2x inverse ETFs SDS and DUG, and will hang on to my SLV OCT 32 puts, which are only risking 1.5% of portfolio value.
ReplyDeleteI suspect there will be a meaningful bounce soon, and will take advantage of that, if it manifests to reload short positions.
bear markets are volatile events, when I acrue a decent profit, I take it and wait for the next oppty to drop in for another high odds low risk trade.
f
Hi DG –
ReplyDeleteQuestion for you – given our bias for a rising $$$, why are you choosing EUO over UUP?
Does it matter going long one or the other? Pros and Cons of each?
Many thanks!
Great chart Gann, thanks again. It will be interesting to see what silver does here... currently holding SLV puts...
ReplyDeleteNice call Fubsy.... I too covered my shorts on Friday afternoon (except SLV puts) ... waiting for a new setup...
Good luck trading this week all...
Hi, just looking at the model portfolio and if the dollar has bottomed, wouldn't it be a good time to at least be in something like UUP or an inverse ETF on another currency like the Euro? Thanks
ReplyDeleteA nice little bounce (weak) in the snp to clear out oversold and sentiment readings.
ReplyDeleteI hope we dont get any capitulation down days for a while. Id rather see a nice controlled sell off.
Same for the Euro.
Good stuff.
NJ: being long EUO and UUP is somewhat similar as EUO is mostly against the dollar. My conviction is stronger that the euro will go down against all currencies, however. Remember too that EUO is also a 2X ETF.
ReplyDeleteI am long TBT, at $32.88, now and feel good about all this talk about this showdown China vs. USA. Who will blink first - China revaluing her currency or USA defaulting on debt. I am in TBT to find out...
ReplyDeleteGL to all and thanks for sharing the pictures, Gary.
I hope someone shares their album with us...
Tom
S&P futures in the green premarket this morning. Let's see if this bounce is on light volume today. Still think we won't bottom until we get a down day with the VIX spiking. We need some real fear to finish this thing off.
ReplyDeleteSilver SLV 10 Min Chart :
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/hNPDpq3LE4
Gary,
ReplyDeleteJust a break of the trendline, or a 1,2,3 reversal?
Silver is looking weak here careful
ReplyDeleteWTI oil seems to have broke its intermediate cycle trend line.....anyone concur with this? :o)
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteAre you looking at a /cl chart?
William, no. Its the WTI chart in netdania chartstation. dont know if thats futures or not
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteI see. Thats WTI Crude pos 1 on netdania correct? Thats ICE futures.
William, yes, that's right :o)
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteIs that your only charting (chartstation)?
William, I use stockcharts too :o)
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteI use ThinkorSwim and freestockcharts.com, I like using time and sales side by side with charts on thinkorswim.
William, thanks. I'm not really a chart monkey to be honest. Guess if I can just know the price of the security I am pretty satisfied
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteLOL, I hear you.
maybe we are finally getting gold's intermediate cycle correction. About bloody time!!!
ReplyDeleteUpdate on GOLD GLD Lower channel , will lower channel hold ?
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/ZVIgcqJzHl7c
Gann,
ReplyDeleteIf we are entering an intermediate decline it wont hold, I see support at the 30dma on a weekly chart.
Anyone trading the vix?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYou plan on getting back in IYR or no?
On Silver should it Fall apart here the 200SMA on Daily is at $29.93 ish...So that level will be Good Support.
ReplyDeleteSLV intraday oversold 5 minute chart, it could bounce back to 34.60$ daytrade but I'm leaving it alone.
ReplyDeleteYowza, miners are getting scorched! Already half-way to my stop level. :)
ReplyDeleteShalom,
ReplyDeleteHow you been? Are you in TBT or thinking about it?
SLW is below 30$ on the Toronto market.
ReplyDeleteLike Gary said, this could be a big moneymaker come the A wave.
Gann,
ReplyDeleteLooks like we got first Gold support on the daily at the 30dma around 1520, then lower trendline around 1515
Not to mention the 50 MA is getting ready to cross the 200 on the downside.
ReplyDeleteNot adding to these trades, and keeping total portfolio risk at 1% so I don't have to be glued to the screen while getting capped.
Thanks DG. Yours and others inputs and willingness to help us newbies is much appreciated!
ReplyDeleteTommyD,
ReplyDeleteI've been great and enjoying some free time.
No, I'm not yet short bonds. When I do it'll be with futures as they're very liquid and I hate being long leveraged etfs, especially after we saw people be correct and still lose money on silver with the ZSL.
Shalom,
ReplyDeleteI just bought some ZSL today at 18.33
Shalom Bernanke, hope you got a nice sun tan and rested your weary bones :o)
ReplyDeleteWow, the HUI is taking a beating, I bought some DUST this morning.
ReplyDelete@ Dan 6:18
ReplyDeleteIn total agreement. I sense a good flush coming on high volume for a short term reversal of a week or two to first sucker in new shorts and give smart money a chance to unload shorts and reposition long for a rally, then when shorts are scared and sentiment becomes more positive again, we begin our next leg down.
As stated above, I'll be covering my small short exposure into a drop. My best guess is we have a day that starts like today and weakens into the close (maybe today), followed by a gap down open. The gap down is my cue to get covered, and wait for the next oppty to short.
f
Silver hit 61.8% Fib Level ,,will it hold longer than a short Bounce ?
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Vg0ex9bCkTm
Nice charts Gann!
ReplyDeleteThanks!! :-)
Fubsy,
ReplyDeleteThat's a great call. I hope that plays out as I feel I am late to the short side now...
Fubsy,
ReplyDeleteAt what level do you think we will see a bounce, I assume you will be looking to cover your shorts around there?
Thanks
Golds multi-month uptrend line is currently sitting at around 1520 so if we break that level, it will be the final nail in the coffin that PMs are in big trouble.
ReplyDeleteRide the primary trend!
ReplyDeleteMarkets are clearly in serious distress and its happening under the covers at an alarming rate.
That crowd by the exit is starting to get rowdy...sure the rest are starting to hear it now?
Oil and EUO are the place to be, IMO, and will be for the entire bear leg. Nice they are taking turns (oil down big today, and the euro Friday). I agree with Fubsy that a gap down will lead to a bounce, but be careful not to loose your strong-hand status by over trading. You don't want to miss the next 1,000 points down. If you are not an especially disciplined trader just let the rally come and go and add to your shorts.
ReplyDeleteDan,
ReplyDeleteWent through 1520 like lava through butter.
Dan,
ReplyDeleteIf you draw a trendline from the last intermediate decline bottom, we broke it at 1515
Come to momma SLV!
ReplyDeleteI was reading through Kitco's forums last night, a few threads were mentioning how silver auctions on ebay were slow, some not even catching bids until the last minute. Not the frenzied crazyness like there was in late April where a Maple ounce was selling for 60$.
ReplyDeleteGold is actually sitting on that trendline now.
ReplyDeleteStrangely, US$ index dropped at the same rate with gold here.
ReplyDeleteGold bounced right off that lower trendline, if it heads lower and breaks, next support is the 50dma.
ReplyDeleteMR M,
ReplyDeleteIt seems like once Gold decides to correct or rally it could care less what the Dollar is doing.
Gold just working towards it's "true" daily cycle low, should be in place this week.
ReplyDeleteFinally gold starts to crack.
ReplyDelete:)
Switzerland was great and we met many very interesting people. Sad though, that someone snitched my wifes camera on the trainride back to Zürich. And the worst was that the camera had pics from months back :(
ReplyDeleteGuess how glad my wife was when I came home?
DG,
ReplyDeleteBeen following you on Oil and Euo. :)
Been watching EUO for awhile and definitely couldn't pull the trigger on fri. I'm guessing now would be a good time to jump in?
ReplyDeleteUSO tagging BB crash.
ReplyDelete10 min Silver chart ,watch for a hit of 20 SMA ,,and than will it Rollover ?
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/VcMH1NYG
Interesting move in the market now. Will this be the real daily cycle low, or was it the 2/6 adn we now have a failed daily cycle. I better just stay out of PM for a while and keep to short SP500 and dollar long.
ReplyDeleteWould be nice with some PM rally now, that I could short with options, but think I hope for too much. But who know, maybee my patience pays off.
if gold corrects by more than 10% that will take us to 200 dma...
ReplyDeleteHey that's what I'm talkin about.
ReplyDeleteDG
This is kind of the level where you scaled in the EUO right? You adding here?
Christian,
ReplyDeleteSorry to hear about the Camera, bummer. But don't let that be the lasting memory. You had a trip of a lifetime.
Gold should find it's low next few days at around $1,500, but only for 3-7 days as the next cycle fails. Miners look to be WAY ahead of the decline, which to me suggests the next failed daily will be a slippery ride down the $1,400 pole for gold.
ReplyDeletePoly,
ReplyDeleteWhat determines whether or not a cycle fails? Being we are 7 days into this cycle, when you say "but only for 3-7 days as the next cycle fails" are you saying this cycle will only be 10-14 days?
Thanks for your help.
SLV tagging 133DMA, some say that's an important level some don't bother, next down is 200DMA around the 30$ mark.
ReplyDelete20ma hit on Silver 10 min Chart ;
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/W5uRB2pmb7ES
Now does it roll over soon?
All the intraday SLV indicators are overbought Gann.
ReplyDeletethe selloff on metals and s&p seem to be on time right at 1pm again. and 1hr later back up (especially s&p). no conspiracy?!
ReplyDeleteWilliam
ReplyDeleteSorry, I was not clear. I don't consider the recent trend break, if you call it that, a cycle low for gold.
I'm working off of May 5th as the last cycle low. We're still in the timing band where a more orthodox cycle low should be waited for.
Once a cycle low is clearly printed, it will be violated THAT low that will constitute the cycle failure.
Poly,
ReplyDeleteGotcha, thanks again.
Poly,
ReplyDeleteSo were 27 days into this cycle then if we look at it that way (may 5th low), correct?
Poly,
ReplyDeleteI cant see how 6/2 constitutes a low either, what am I missing?
It cant be because of a break of the trendline, that trendline was broke already on 5/17 if that were the case.
Silver 10 min Update :
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/7t4BTSruTl
Seeing some relative strength in the PM stocks now. Doesn't necessarily mean we will bounce ASAP but if it holds up it will indicate we maybe due for a short term bounce.
ReplyDeleteAlso not sure if anyone noticed but VIX is positive even though markets are up so fear is starting to build.
Gann,
ReplyDeleteWhat level is the next lower, 33.50$ range?
Yeah around 33.40 ish ,But for now,Silver needs to make new Lows (intraday )
ReplyDeleteLooks like a second bounce here, neutral with a slight uptrend (intraday).
ReplyDeleteUpdate SLV 10 MIN:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/4iOLM3Jeoh
"So were 27 days into this cycle then if we look at it that way (may 5th low), correct?"
ReplyDeleteWilliam, that sounds correct.
Remember though, it's somewhat irrelevant as the dominant and more important IT cycle low is looming large. Both daily cycle interpretations both end with a nice move down in the very near future.
Gann,
ReplyDeleteWhich charting service do you use?
Esignal
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteI finally have skin in the game with EUO. I bought a chunk earlier this morning and will add another chunk if it pulls back more. Just wondering if you have a stop in mind for EUO? For the others that also bought EUO, any mental stops?
Looks to me like H&S may be setting up on SLV on the 1-minute chart over the past several hours.
ReplyDeleteGann,
ReplyDeleteI been enjoying your daily charts and appreciate it that you share it w/ everyone. Would you recommend any books for scalp trading? How do you know which tools to use for your trades. Would be interested in learning more. Thanks
Closing here at these levels, I would expect at least a morning pop for both GLD and SLV unless the overnight market is lower.
ReplyDeleteNiven
ReplyDeletethe system i use for Scalping is a mixture of Gann and eastern. western TA,,, i count Candles/ i use Moving Averages/ Trendlines , and many other tools,,,
i made lots and Lost lots of money , to arrive where i am at today...i am not ! the Cowboy i was years ago... Today i take High Probability Trades ,,
my friends ask me all the time, if i could teach them, i tell them stay with what you know...this Arena will eat you alive...
As far as tools, there is no ,,,1 Tool to use,,,it's a marriage of many.
Interesting to see GPL up over 7% on a mediocre volume.
ReplyDeleteSilver Daily Chart : http://screencast.com/t/U40YzEH2e
ReplyDeleteGDX falls below its intermediate low set back in late January.
ReplyDeleteOh my!
SLW bb crash, ouch!
ReplyDeleteIf GLD closes below 147.93 it will break a 5 and a half month trend line. I tried to post the chart but too much of a meathead to figure it out. There was a break of that line on 5/17 but GLD rallied to close well above that line.
ReplyDeleteAnybody use freestockcharts.com. maybe you ca walk me through how to post it?
S&P green on light volume while the PMs down on big volume. Seems this isn't the bottom based on volume.
ReplyDeleteAs I ranted on Friday, maybe the little guy holdong GLD SLV sees no end to the drop now. Volume is about 30% more on SLV than on Friday, perhaps the exit gates will be open more tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteLong GDXJ 70%+, EUO 13%
ReplyDeleteShort SLV 7%
Cash 10%
+increased position
Gann,
ReplyDeleteThanks.. Now I know why your name is Gann lol.. I did a search on youtube and found the gann methodology quite interesting..I hope silver breaks below that trendline soon.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteIf you draw a trendline from the last intermediate cycle low on 1/28you see that gold bounced right off that trendline on 3/15, 5/5, 5/17 and broke below it today.
Miyagi,
ReplyDeleteVolume comparisons on SLV are pointless now, IMO.
Firstly, the averages have been badly skewed by the parabola and subsequent collapse. Volume on this baby will continue to decline all the way to the IT low as the remaining hopefuls clinging to the fantasy of an immediate retest off all time high's start capitulating. Interest is quickly disappearing.
Gann,
ReplyDeleteDo you look for entry and exit using mostly the 10min chart, I have been doing well with the 5min?
Poly,
ReplyDeleteI realize that and I take that into accound however skewed it may be.
Still, as you said, interest is waning but there are still holders that probably will dump at a point and give up.
Oh I agree they will dump, or keep dumping we should say.
ReplyDeleteWilliam
ReplyDeleteVery similiar to the chart I was looking at. I had it only breaking on 5/17 and today. But today we closed below, so hopefully this continues.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteI see, your trendline began at the 5/5 bottom.
Anybody considered puts on platinum?
ReplyDeleteIAS;
ReplyDeleteNo, there's plenty of gold/silver plays, the platinum market is very small.
Off to mow the lawn.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteIf you draw a trendline like I said from the 1/28 bottom, you'll see that it acted as support today also. Its possible that we get another bounce off it (I hope not),today was the third bounce off it.
Make that IES..
ReplyDeleteyou could use the 5 min ,,, i also use the 1 min in Scalping ,along side the 10 min and 60 min ..
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHag and Ryan: Sorry not to respond earlier, but I've been busy all day (I occasionally work for a living). I am not adding to EUO here. I like to add on strength and will wait for a new dollar up day, just in case this dollar dip is the start of something more. Today was my day to smile about oil instead. The last pieces for me will be silver puts after a rally as I am too light there. I am also looking to buy back the SKF I sold Friday.
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, I never did have a position in EUO so I started mine today. So if I want to add, you recommend only adding in strength and not a pullback?
fed funding plan to the euro zone..
ReplyDeletebring on qe3..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-600-billion-stealth-bailout-foreign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy-
FWIW Turd finally turned bearish a few trading session ago and his post today indicates all trend lines are now broken. Its saying a lot considering hes been a permabull since his site started and blamed declines on conspiracy theories.
ReplyDeletehttp://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/just-mucking-fugly.html
William
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not my trend line was from 1/27 and those are the only breaks I have are one 5/17 and today. 5/17 finished above but today closed below.
Ryan. It's a tough choice. I tend to like to add on strength because the market's behavior is doing what I think it "should"." This raises your average cost, though. Buying on weakness means better prices but if you buy on the way down you can buy and buy...and then get killed if you are wrong. It is generally better to add on strength, but not more than 50% of your original stake. that is if you buy 500 of something, add 200 on strength. Then if it keeps going up, you can add on a pullback to support, when it gets to oversold, etc. Just don't get excited and add a lot on a run up. You will need to develop your own way, but whatever you do learn from your errors and analyze what went wrong. For myself I was so confident in the EUO play that I added as it dropped---just nothing excessive. Now I need to see more strength to be convinced this dip is just that---a dip.
ReplyDeleteAnyone noticed the VIX is almost ready to break out?
ReplyDeleteCould be a big down day tomorrow?
James
@ Tommy and WIlliam,
ReplyDeleteSorry I didn't respond sooner. I've been writing reports all day.
i'm looking to cover into a downward swoon. Today was farily neutral in the S&P. So, I remain short. It seems that shorts are pretty nervous as a group, that suggests to me there is more room to fall. Also, we're just heading into the middle range of the daily cycle, meaning if we do bounce it should roll over before too long and head into the DCL, especially given the left translated nature of this cycle.
So, I feel ok holdoing shorts here. I surely won't be adding now though. Any decent downdraft and I'll be back in cash and wating for a bounce to reverse in order to reenter.
f
Dollar rallying
ReplyDeleteEuro Falls Versus Yen, Dollar on Concern Greece’s Debt Crisis Will Worsen
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-14/euro-falls-versus-yen-dollar-on-concern-greece-s-debt-crisis-will-worsen.html
Gary having beeing over in Switzerland or anyone else have a view on what the Swiss Franc is likely to do over the next few months?
ReplyDeleteMaybe early days yet, but doesn't seem to be showing signs of weakness despite gold topping and the dollar bottoming.
This is just insane;
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-600-billion-stealth-bailout-foreign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy-?
Hi Gary:
ReplyDeleteBased on today's action in Gold, looks like we may have seen the intermediate peak 5-6 weeks back. Does this now qualify as a LT or RT intermediate cycle?
Also, if a LT intermediate, what are the implications going forward for the A wave, if any?
Thanks!
Welcome Home, Gary!
ReplyDeleteI wondered what you were going to do there if you couldn't climb the Matterhorn. Must have been the hunger for a burrito that clinched the deal, no?
You did an admirable job keeping up the blog and the reports, but you were missed.
Le Fou
Probably gonna shove it up the a$$ of the bears this week, for OPEX.
ReplyDeleteThey don't want any makin millions on putz
just sayin'
fubsy_cooter:
ReplyDeleteAny thought about Gary's new post on selling all shorts tomorrow?
Welcome Home Gary, glad you made it home safely. Thanks for getting a report out for us.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYou are truely amazing! You just flew back half round the world and the first thing you do is write the newsletter!!!
Thanks for being such a great person!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWelcome home. Your dedication is overwhelming, I am grateful to have you as a guide. Its amazing how much I have learned from you already, your an inspiration in many ways.
hi gary, welcome back.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with william and sophia.
Many thanks indeed.
.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWill the shorted stocks cycle back down again? I am just wondering why you recommend selling shorts at a a loss instead when they are profitable status.
From where I shorted the trade was very profitable. If you hesitated on the entry then you will have to figure out what you want to do with the trade.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteFollowing the model porftolio, my profits have dropped significan'ty from yesterdays profits, not much more than to cover broker fees.
To clarify, do you believe the Model portfolio will possibly cycle back down and gain back the profits we held as of yesterday?
We entered shorts at 1311 the market is at 1285. How can you be down?
ReplyDeleteYou could also wait a bit and see if the bears try to take it down sometime today. Of course you also risk it going higher.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteFrom the profits I held, I am way down opening today. As I said, I have profits, however not enough to make these trades just to cover broker fees.
I didn't want to see into the open and will chance it will cycle down into the day. Thanks
sell, not see.
ReplyDeleteWow shorting sucks. Lesson learned; take profits when you have them. Don't wait for the market to turn.
ReplyDeleteGary, GLD and SLV and seems we still can hang onto those PUTs as the cycle down is not yet done? Am I reading that correctly?
ReplyDeleteThe model portfolio doesn't have any puts. You are on your own on that one.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't think the intermediate cycle is anywhere near the bottom yet for gold. Minimum of another month maybe two.
Thanks, I bought SLV GLD puts prior to the model portfolio was implemented. Still hanging on as they are just bringing funds back in and I have time on my side then. Loss was already taken. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks.